You are on page 1of 6

POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL SEPTEMBER 7th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto Mayoral Voting
Intentions
7th September 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey that was conducted between three levels of government, President and CEO
September 4th and 5th among a sample of Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
1178 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in international public affairs.
Toronto. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from random was the only polling firm to correctly predict
digit dialing. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
Research was part of Mainstreet’s monthly elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
omnibus polling and was not sponsored by a special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
third party. a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Canadian publication standards.
2.85% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
CONTACT INFORMATION
(full methodology appears at the end of this In Ottawa:
report) Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TORY OUT TO LARGE LEAD IN THE EARLY STAGES OF MAYORAL RACE

7 September 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Incumbent John Tory has a commanding lead among
decided voters in the early stages of the Toronto mayoral campaign, a new Mainstreet
Research poll finds.

The survey was conducted on September 4th and 5th among a sample of 1178 Torontonians
aged 18 and over. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.85% and is accurate 19 times out of
20.

Among decided voters, Tory enjoys 62.6% support while challenger Jennifer Keesmaat
comes in with 27.7% support. 9.6% of Torontonians would vote for another candidate if the
election were held today.

“John Tory is off to a great start at the beginning of this municipal campaign”, said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “He has significant leads among every
demographic and region in Toronto.”

However, just about a third (33.2%) of Torontonians said that they have not decided who to
support for mayor just yet.

“People have not given much thought about who to vote for given that the election is just
over six weeks away,” continued Maggi. “This means that there is room for Keesmaat to
grow and make it an interesting race, but there is no doubt that she has some work to do to
make it a competitive election come October”.

Tory holds strong leads in every region in Toronto, with his largest lead in Scarborough.
However, the gap between Keesmaat and Tory is the narrowest in the downtown area.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean
toward?

33.2%

41.7%

All Voters

6.6%

All VotersVoters
Decided 18.4%

John Tory Jennifer9.6%
Keesmaat Another Candidate Undecided

33.2%

41.7%

27.7%
All Voters
Decided Voters

62.6%

6.6%

18.4%

John Tory Jennifer Keesmaat Another Candidate Undecided
John Tory Jennifer Keesmaat Another Candidate
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might
lean toward?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 41.7% 43.2% 40.5% 33.1% 41.2% 44.3% 52.3% 38.6% 41.9% 38.8% 51.6%
Jennifer Keesmaat 18.4% 22.1% 15.2% 18.7% 21.9% 18.7% 13.4% 28.1% 16.2% 11.6% 11.3%
Another Candidate 6.6% 9.5% 4% 7.2% 5.5% 6.6% 7% 5% 9.6% 6.5% 6.9%
Undecided 33.2% 25.2% 40.4% 40.9% 31.3% 30.4% 27.2% 28.4% 32.3% 43.1% 30.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1178 602 576 244 308 326 300 434 222 294 228
Weighted Frequency 1178 557 621 358 287 299 234 435 217 301 225

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 62.6% 57.6% 67.1% 56% 60.4% 64.4% 73.2% 53.7% 61.2% 68% 75.5%
Jennifer Keesmaat 27.7% 29.6% 26.1% 32% 32.2% 26.3% 17.6% 39.4% 24.3% 21.1% 15.5%
Another Candidate 9.6% 12.8% 6.8% 12% 7.5% 9.3% 9.2% 6.9% 14.5% 10.9% 9%
Unweighted Frequency 808 456 352 146 214 228 220 320 158 170 160
Weighted Frequency 808 382 426 246 197 205 160 316 148 182 162

QUESTIONNAIRE
On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in your municipal election.
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean toward?
(first two responses randomized)
John Tory
Jennifer Keesmaat
Another Candidate
Undecided

What is your gender?
Male
Female

What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older

Which part of Toronto do you reside in?
Downtown Toronto
Etobicoke
North York
Scarborough
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between September 4th,
2018 and September 5th, 2018, among a sample of 1178 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Toronto. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Toronto.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing. Respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.85% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.99%, Females: +/-
4.08%, 18-34 age group: +/- 6.27%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.58%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.43%,
65+ age group: +/- 5.66%, Downtown Toronto: +/- 4.7%, Etobicoke: +/- 6.58%, Etobicoke:
+/- 5.72%, Scarborough: +/- 6.49%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.