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You are on page 1of 56

METHODS

&

STATISTICS

MTH 2212

LECTURER

DR ZAHARAH WAHID

EXT 4514, ROOM E1-4-8-13

COURSE EVALUATION & ASSESSMENT

Quizzes ( Class) 3x for each section 10%

Assignments 5%

2

Course Objectives

• Enhance ability to extract meaningful

information from data sets

3

Population & Sample

• POPULATION : The set of all

measurements of interest to the

experimenter

• SAMPLE: A subset/portion of

measurements selected from the

population of interest for analysis.

4

Examples

year from 2000 to 2005- population

new drug-sample

5

SYMBOL

Mean ×

Variance S2 2

Standard

Deviation S

6

Type of Statistics

• DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS:

Procedures used to summarize and

describe the set of measurements.

• INFERENTIAL STATISTICS:

Procedures used to draw conclusions or

inferences about the population from

information contained in the sample

7

Types of data

Variable (Quantitative)

Measurable characteristic

e.g: height, length, thickness

Attribute (Qualitative)

Qualitative data (count)

e.g: yes/no, OK/NG, go/no go

8

Definition

Probability & Chance

An experiment is a situation involving chance or

probability that leads to results called outcomes.

experiment.

The Probability

of an Event

• P(A) must be between 0 and 1.

– If event A can never occur/impossible, P(A) = 0.

– If event A always occurs/certain when the

experiment is performed, P(A) =1.

• This can only be applied when all the

outcomes of the experiment are equally likely.

total possible outcomes

10

Counting Techniques

Multiplication& Additional

Rules

“AND” is understood to mean “

multiply”

Counting Techniques

Multiplication& Additional

Rules

E1 can occur in 3 ways ( A, B, C) and E2 can

occur in 2 ways (P,Q) then the combination

of E1 and E2 can occur in 3X2 ways

A bag contains seven balls, numbered from

1 to 7, A ball is drawn from the bag. If the

number is even than a coin is tossed. If the

number is odd, then a die is thrown. How

many outcomes are possible?

1st outcome=[even #] and [toss a coin]

= [3] x [2]= 6

=[4] x [6] 24

Multiplication& Additional

Rules

equally likely)

P(4)= P(not 4)= P(8)=

m

Permutation m

Example: 5 students in a row to take a group

photo. How many different standing

arrangements can the students form for the

photo session?

Pnn

n! n(n 1)(n 2)...(2)(1)

Number of different standing arrangements = 5!

= 5!

=5x4x3x2x1

15

Permutations

• The number of ways you can arrange

n distinct objects, taking them r at a time is

n!

Pr

n

(n r )!

where n! n(n 1)(n 2)...(2)(1) and 0! 1.

Example: How many 3-digit lock combinations

can we make from the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4?

The order of the choice is important! 4!

P 4(3)(2) 24

3

4

1!

16

Examples

Example: A lock consists of five parts and can

be assembled in any order. A quality control

engineer wants to test each order for

efficiency of assembly. How many orders are

there?

The order of the choice is important!

5!

P 5(4)(3)(2)(1) 120

5

5

0!

17

Permutation of n objects for given conditions

2. Consider the conditions

that can be formed using the digits 3, 4,

5, 6, and 7 without repetition

Last digit

18

Permutation of n different objects taken r at a

time for given conditions

How many 4-digit number that are less

than 7000 can be formed using the

digits 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8 without

repetition?

=3x 4P3

4!

=3 x = 3x4x3x 2= 72

(4 3)!

19

Example

In how many different ways can all the letters in

the word “PRINT” be arranged without

repetition/replacement?

n!= 5!

= 5x4x3x2x1 =120

21

Example

In general, If there are a total of n objects, out of

which p of them are the same object, q of another

object, r of another object and so on, then the total

𝑛!

number of arrangements is

𝑝!𝑞!𝑟!

word “DADAH” be arranged without repetition?

= 5!/2!2!

22

23

Exercise

How many digits number can be formed with 5

digits 1,2,3,4,5 if

a) repetitions are allowed

b) repetitions are not allowed

c) the number is odd and no repetitions are

allowed

d)the number is even and repetitions are

allowed

(e) The number is greater than 50,000 and no

repetitions are allow

24

m

m

SOLUTION

5 x 5 x 5 x 5 x 5 =3,125

(b) no repetitions

5 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 =72

25

SOLUTION

(c) number is odd and no repetitions the last

place can be filled in only 3ways(1,3,5), then

fill in the other places.

4 X 3 X 2 X 1 X 3 =72

The last place can be filled in (2 or 4). Fill this

in first, then fill in the other places

5 x 5 x 5 x 5 x 2=1,250

26

Cont… m

m

The first place can be filled in only 1

way(with 5). Fill this first, then fill in

other places.

1 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 =24

27

Example

There are 5 women and 4 men in a club. A team of

four has to be chosen. How many different teams

can be chosen if there must be either exactly one

women or exactly two women on the team?

and= x or=+

A team must consist 4 people.

Suppose W denotes a women and M denotes a man

1W and 3M or 2W and 2M

= 20+60

28

m

m

Example

A,B,C,D,E and F are six nurses. How many different

ways can they be seated in a row if

(a) there are no restrictions on the seating

(b) A and B must sit beside each other

(c) A and B must not sit beside each other

(d)D, E, and F must sit beside each other

(e) A and F must sit at the end of each other

Solution

(a)No restrictions

number of arrangements= 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x1 =6!=720

Consider A and B as one person

A,B, C D, E, F

5 persons can be arranged in 5! Ways

But A and B can be arranged in 2! ways while seated together (AB,

BA).

So the number of arrangements = 2! X 5! =2 X 120 =240

𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓

𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜. 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛

𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 = −

𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑡𝑜𝑔.

𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑡𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟

30

Cont…..

= 720-240=480

D, E, and F must sit beside each other.

(d) Consider D, E, and F as one person

A, B, C D, E, F

4 person can be arranged in 4 ways, but D, E and F

can be arranged in 3! Ways while seated together

so the number of arrangements = 3! X4! =6x24 =144

Put A and F at the ends and B,C,D and E in between them

B, C, D and E can be arranged in 4! ways seated together. A and

F can exchange places. No. of arrangements= 2!X 4!= 2X 24=48

31

Combinations

• The number of distinct combinations of n

distinct objects that can be formed, taking

them r at a time is n!

Cr

n

r!(n r )!

Example: Three members of a 5-person committee must

be chosen to form a subcommittee. How many different

subcommittees could be formed?

5! 5(4)(3)(2)1 5(4)

The order of

C

5

10

3!(5 3)! 3(2)(1)(2)1 (2)1

the choice is 3

not important!

32

Example1

Combination of r objects chosen from n

different objects for given conditions

group of 6 boys and 7 girls to form a badminton

team. In how many ways can the team be

formed?

Number of ways choosing 3girls from 7 boy = 35

15 x 35 =525

33

Example 3

There are 10 pens in a box, 6 red and 4 green.

If 3 are picked out at random, what is the

probability of 1 red and 2 green?

which the order does not matter

10!

𝐶310 = = 120

3! 10−3 !

= 36/120 =0.3

34

Exercise

A bag contains 9 white and 6 black

balls. What is the probability of selecting

(i) 2 white balls

(ii) 3 white balls

(iii) 4 black balls

(iv) 1 white and 3 black balls

(v) 4 white and 5 black balls

9C4 x 6C5 /15C9

35

Exercise

There are 4 men and 5 women. Find the probability of

selecting 3 of which

(i) exactly two are women

(ii) no woman

(iii) at least one women

(iv) at most one women

(v) no men

Ans:5C2 x 4C1/, 9C3 4C3/9C3, (5C1 x 4C2 + 5C2 x 4C1 + 5C3)/9C3, 4C3 +

5C1 x 4C2 )/9C3, 5C3/9C3

36

m

Tree diagram m

Example 3

A box contains 24 transistors, 4 of which are

defectives. If 4 are sold at random, find the

following probabilities

I. Exactly 2 are defectives

II. None is defective

III. All are defectives

IV. At least one is defective

I. Exactly 2 are defectives

𝐶24 𝑋 𝐶220 1140

P( exactly 2 defectives) = =

𝐶424 10,626

2. None is defective

No. of ways to choose no defectives is 𝐶420

P( no defectives) = 𝐶420 /𝐶424 = 4845/10,626=1615/3542

P( all defectives) = 𝐶44 /𝐶424 = 1/10,626

4845/10,626 = 1- 1615/3542 =1927/3542

Probability Distributions for Discrete

Random Variables

• The probability distribution for a discrete

random variable x resembles the relative

frequency distributions. It is a graph, table or

formula that gives the possible values of x and

the probability p(x) associated with each

value.

We must have

0 p( x) 1 and p( x) 1

Probability Distributions

• Probability distributions can be used to describe

the population, just as we described samples in

handout 1.

– Shape: Symmetric, skewed, mound-shaped…

– Outliers: unusual or unlikely measurements

– Center and spread: mean and standard

deviation. A population mean is called and a

population standard deviation is called .

Example

• The probability distribution for x the

number of heads in tossing 3 fair

coins.

Symmetric; mound-

• Shape? shaped

• Outliers? None

• Center? = 1.5

• Spread? = .688

Key Concepts

V. Discrete Random Variables and Probability

Distributions

1. Random variables, discrete and continuous

2. Properties of probability distributions

0 p( x) 1 and p( x) 1

3. Mean or expected value of a discrete random

variable: Mean : xp( x)

4. Variance and standard deviation of a discrete

random variable: Variance : 2 ( x ) 2 p( x)

Standard deviation : 2

Example

• Toss a fair coin three times and

define x = number of heads.

x

HHH 1/8

3

x p(x)

P(x = 0x) = 1/8 0 1/8

HHT 1/8 2 P(x = 1) = 3/8 1 3/8

HTH 1/8 2

P(x = 2) = 3/8 2 3/8

THH P(x = 3) = 1/8

1/8 2 3 1/8

HTT

1/8 1

Probability Histogram

THT for x

1/8 1

TTH

1/8 1

TTT 0

1/8

The Mean

and Standard Deviation

• Let x be a discrete random variable with

probability distribution p(x). Then the mean or

expected value, variance and standard

deviation of x are given as

Mean : E ( x) xp ( x)

Variance : ( x ) p( x)

2 2

Standard deviation : 2

Example

• Toss a fair coin 3 times and

record x the number of heads.

x p(x) xp(x) (x-)2p(x) 12

0 1/8 0 (-1.5)2(1/8) xp ( x) 1.5

8

1 3/8 3/8 (-0.5)2(3/8)

2 3/8 6/8 (0.5)2(3/8)

3 1/8 3/8 (1.5)2(1/8)

( x ) p( x)

2 2

.75 .8660

Example

• Relative frequency.

x p(x) f fx

0 1/8 1 0x1=0

1 3/8 3 1x3=3

2 3/8 3 2x3=6

3 1/8 1 3x1=3

Expectation Value, E(X)

Mean : E ( X ) xp( x)

Variance of X is written as Var(X) E ( X ) 2 p ( X x)

E( X )2

Var ( X ) E ( X 2 ) [ E ( X )]2

x 0 1 2 3

Given: P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

E (X) = 𝑥𝑃 𝑋=𝑥

1 3 3 1 12

=0 +1 +2 +3 = = 1.5

8 8 8 8 8

Cont,……

E (𝑋 2 ) = 𝑥 2 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)

2

1 2

3 2

3 2

1

= 0 +1 +2 +3 = 3

8 8 8 8

Var ( X ) E ( X 2 ) [ E ( X )]2

= 3 − (1.5)2

= 0.75

49

Probability Distributions Table

Find P( X > 1)

x 0 1 2 3

P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

P( X > 1) = P( X=2 or 3)

=P(X=2) + P(X=3)

= 3/8 + 1/8

= 4/8

= 1/2

The discrete random variable X has probability

X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

P(X= 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1

x)

i) P( X< 4)

ii) P( 3< X 6

iii) E(X)

PDF and CDF DISCRETE

Cumulative density function –CDF

Definition

𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑃( 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 )

Properties -CDF

1. 0 ≤ 𝐹 𝑥 ≤ 1 , -∞<𝑥 < ∞

2. 𝐹 −∞ = 0, 𝐹 ∞ = 1

3. if 𝑥1 < 𝑥2 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐹 𝑥1 ≤ 𝐹(𝑥2 )

4. 𝑃 𝑥1 < 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥2 = 𝐹 𝑥2 − 𝐹(𝑥1 )

Note

P( X > 𝑥1 ) = 𝑃 𝑥1 < 𝑋 < ∞ = 𝐹 ∞ − 𝐹 𝑥1

= 1− 𝐹(𝑥1 )

Example 1

𝑥 0 1 2

P( X = 𝑥 ) 1/4 2/4 1/4

F(𝑥 ) 1/4 3/4 1

Find , F( 2) = 1

Find, F(1) = ¾

P( 0 ) + P( 1)

Find, F( 1.7) = F ( 1)

Exercise

𝑥 3 5 6 8 9

P( X = 𝑥 ) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 a

F(𝑥 )

P( X > 𝑥1 ) = 1

Find

1. a,

2. F(9),

3. F( 6)

Example 2- how to find PDF

𝑥 4 7 9 11

F(𝑥 ) 0.3 0.4 0.9 1

P( X = 𝑥 ) 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1

Find , P( 𝑥 =7) ?

F( 7 ) - P( 4)

Find, P(𝑥 = 9)?

Find, F( 1.7) = F ( 1)

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