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Regina Northeast

By-Election
Voter Intention Numbers
10th September 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all
a survey was conducted between September three levels of government, President and CEO
8th and 9th among a sample of 184 adults, 18 Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
years of age or older, living in the provincial international public affairs.
district of Regina Northeast. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Main-
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were street Research has provided accurate snap-
interviews on both landlines and cellular shots of public opinion, having predicted a
phones. majority NDP government in Alberta, and was
the only polling firm to correctly predict a Lib-
The sampling frame was derived from both eral majority government in the 2015 federal
a national telephone directory compiled by election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
Mainstreet Research from various commercial the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections in
sources and random digit dialing. In the case November 2017, and the Alabama special elec-
of random digit dials, respondents were asked tion in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member
the additional question of what region of the of the World Association for Public Opinion
province they resided in. Research and meets international and Canadi-
an publication standards.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Re- CONTACT INFORMATION
search and was not sponsored by a third par- In Toronto:
ty. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 7.12%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
As you might know, there is a byelection in the provincial
electoral district of Regina Northeast on September 12th.
Which candidate will you vote for in the upcoming by-
All Voters election?

14.8%

1.3% 31.9%

8%

All Voters
8.4%

All Votersand Leaning Voters
Decided
35.6%

1.5%
14.8%
8.4%
Gary Grewal, Sask Party Yens Pedersen, NDP Reid Hill, Liberal

Jessica
8.9% Schroeder, Green
1.3% Another Party Undecided
31.9%

8%
39.7%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
8.4%

41.4%
35.6%

Gary Grewal, Sask Party Yens Pedersen, NDP Reid Hill, Liberal
Gary Grewal, Sask Party Yens Pedersen, NDP Reid Hill, Liberal
Jessica Schroeder, Green Another Party Undecided
Jessica Schroeder, Green Another Party
Breakouts
If a provincial by-election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Gary Grewal, Sask Party 31.9% 40.6% 23.5% 31.4% 24.7% 41.3% 30%
Yens Pedersen, NDP 35.6% 23.1% 47.6% 37.2% 36.2% 27.5% 42.9%
Reid Hill, Liberal 8.4% 10.5% 6.4% 15.7% 6.3% 5% 2.5%
Jessica Schroeder, Green 8% 12.9% 3.3% 15.7% 4.6% 5% 2.5%
Another Party 1.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0% 0% 3.7% 2.5%
Undecided 14.8% 11% 18.4% 0% 28.2% 17.4% 19.6%
Unweighted Frequency 184 84 100 12 36 44 92
Weighted Frequency 184 90 94 61 46 45 32

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Gary Grewal, Sask Party 31.9% 40.6% 23.5% 31.4% 24.7% 41.3% 30%
Yens Pedersen, NDP 35.6% 23.1% 47.6% 37.2% 36.2% 27.5% 42.9%
Reid Hill, Liberal 8.4% 10.5% 6.4% 15.7% 6.3% 5% 2.5%
Jessica Schroeder, Green 8% 12.9% 3.3% 15.7% 4.6% 5% 2.5%
Another Party 1.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0% 0% 3.7% 2.5%
Undecided 14.8% 11% 18.4% 0% 28.2% 17.4% 19.6%
Unweighted Frequency 184 84 100 12 36 44 92
Weighted Frequency 184 90 94 61 46 45 32

(decided and leaning voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Gary Grewal, Sask Party 39.7% 47.1% 32.7% 31.5% 43.3% 50% 35.8%
Yens Pedersen, NDP 41.4% 26.9% 55.4% 37% 43.5% 35.1% 55.4%
Reid Hill, Liberal 8.9% 10.6% 7.3% 15.8% 7.6% 5.4% 2.9%
Jessica Schroeder, Green 8.4% 13.5% 3.6% 15.8% 5.6% 5.4% 2.9%
Another Party 1.5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 4% 2.9%
Unweighted Frequency 160 74 86 12 30 40 78
Weighted Frequency 160 78 82 53 40 39 28
Questionnaire
As you might know, there is a byelection in the provincial electoral district of
Regina Northeast on September 12th. How certain are you to vote in the by-
election?
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Somewhat unlikely
Very unlikely
Not eligible or will not vote (Thank and terminate)

And which candidate will you vote for in the upcoming by-election? (first four
responses randomized)
Gary Grewal of the Saskatchewan Party
Yens Pedersen of the Saskatchwan NDP
Reid Hill of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party
Jessica Schroeder of the Saskatchewan Green Party
A Candidate of Another Party
Undecided

And which candidate are you leaning towards? (first four responses random-
ized - only asked of respondents who said they were undecided in previous
question)
Gary Grewal of the Saskatchewan Party
Yens Pedersen of the Saskatchwan NDP
Reid Hill of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party
Jessica Schroeder of the Saskatchewan Green Party
A Candidate of Another Party
Undecided

What is your gender?
Male
Female

What is your age?
Between 18 and 34 years of age
Between 35 and 49 years of age
Between 50 and 64 years of age
Over 65 years old