TO: FROM

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Interested Parties David Metz & Curtis Below Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates Update on the 8th Congressional District Race October 6, 2010

RE: DATE:

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently completed a survey of 400 likely voters in Washington’s 8th Congressional District. The survey results show that Suzan DelBene has closed the gap with Dave Reichert and is in a statistical dead heat heading into November’s election. Reichert’s lead is within the survey’s margin of error, and while Reichert’s negatives have increased significantly over the course of the campaign, voters hold positive opinions of DelBene. More specifically: • DelBene has pulled into a statistical tie with Reichert. As shown in Figure 1 below, Reichert’s lead has steadily dropped over the past year, to a nine-point gap in August 2010 and now only a four-point gap. This small lead is within the survey’s margin of sampling error and shows that DelBene is now in a virtual tie with Reichert in the race. FIGURE 1: Vote Preferences for DelBene and Reichert, Over Time
Vote Preference Total Reichert Total DelBene Vote Margin Undecided/Other June 2009 47% 22% +25% 31% August 2010 50% 41% +9% 9% October 2010 48% 44% +4% 8%

2425 Colorado Ave., Ste. 180 Santa Monica, CA 90404 Phone: (310) 828-1183 Fax: (310) 453-6562

1999 Harrison Street, Ste. 1290 Oakland, CA 94612 Phone: (510) 451-9521 Fax: (510) 451-0384

Page 2 • An increasing number of voters view Reichert unfavorably. As shown in Figure 2, nearly as many voters now view Reichert unfavorably (45%) as favorably (50%). The proportion of voters viewing Reichert positively appears to have reached a ceiling – roughly 50 percent – while the proportion of those with negative opinions has increased steadily, from 38 percent in June 2009, to 40 percent in August 2010 and now 45 percent. In contrast, attitudes toward DelBene are positive: 29 percent view her favorably, 22 percent recognize her but do not know enough about her to offer an opinion, and just 16 percent have an unfavorable opinion. FIGURE 2: Favorability Ratings for Reichert, Over Time
Reichert Favorability Total favorable Total unfavorable Don’t know June 2009 50% 38% 12% August 2010 52% 40% 8% October 2010 50% 45% 5%

Taken together, the survey results show that Suzan DelBene has seized the momentum in the race and is well-positioned to win the election in Washington’s 8th Congressional District.

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Survey Methodology: From October 4-5, 2010, FM3 completed telephone interviews with 400 voters in the 8th Congressional District likely to cast ballots in the November 2010 general election. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.9%; margins of error for subgroups within the sample will be higher.

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