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17 September 2010

• Remember from last time, the four basic assumptions of the multiple regression

model.

• The model in the population must be linear in parameters:

y 0 1 x1 2 x2 ... k xk u

• The data set

• The error term must have zero conditional mean:

E u | x1 , x2 ,..., xk 0

• There cannot be any perfect collinearity among the independent variables.

• When these are all true, the estimates of 0, 1, …, k are unbiased.

• We also discussed the implications of omitting an important variable from the multiple

regression analysis.

• An “important variable” is one that (a) correlated with the other x variables in the

model and (b) related to the y variable, after the other x variables are taken into

account.

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• We will now explore what happens when we mis-specify the regression model.

• The misspecification is leaving out a variable that should be there.

• The result will be that the estimator for the coefficient on the remaining variable will

be biased.

• For example, suppose that the true relationship is

y 0 1 x1 2 x2 u

•

• But instead of including x2 as a variable in our regression model, as we should, we

instead estimate

y 0 1 x1 u

• What happens to the estimator of 1?

n n

1 i 1

n

i 1

n

x i1 x1 x i1 x1

2 2

i 1 i 1

n n n n

0 xi1 x1 1 xi1 xi1 x1 2 xi 2 xi1 x1 ui xi1 x1

1 i 1 i 1

n

i 1 i 1

x x1

2

i1

i 1

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• Taking the expectation, this simplifies to

ˆ x1 , x2

Cov

E 1 1 2

ˆ x1

Var

• This means that if you omit x2, and x2 is correlated with x1, your estimate of 1 will be

biased.

Bias in estimate of Corr(x1,x2) > 0 Corr(x1,x2) < 0

1 from omitting x2

2 > 0 positive bias negative bias

• For example, it is probably the case that one’s wages depend both on one’s education

and one’s ability:

• But often we do not have data on someone’s “ability.”

• Instead, we might estimate the model

wages 0 1 education u

• using the data we have available.

• Probably, since ability and education are positively correlated, and ability as a positive

effect on wages, the estimate of 1 will be positively biased.

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• As an example, we will look at the relationship between a child’s educational

attainment, his or her IQ, and his or her mother’s educational attainment.

education 0 1 Meducation 2 IQ u

• Question: what happens to the estimate of b1 if the second variable (IQ) is omitted

from the equation?

• Fact 1: the correlation between IQ and educational attainment is probably positive.

Therefore 2 is probably positive.

• Fact 2: The correlation between mother’s education and child’s IQ is also probably

positive.

• Therefore, omitting child’s IQ means that we expect the estimate of 1 to be positively

biased.

. d

obs: 935

vars: 17 14 Apr 1999 13:41

size: 24,310 (97.2% of memory free)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

storage display value

variable name type format label variable label

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

…

IQ int %9.0g IQ score

…

educ byte %9.0g years of education

…

meduc byte %9.0g mother's education

…

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

. summarize IQ, detail

IQ score

-------------------------------------------------------------

Percentiles Smallest

1% 64 50

5% 74 54

10% 82 55 Obs 935

25% 92 59 Sum of Wgt. 935

Largest Std. Dev. 15.05264

75% 112 134

90% 120 134 Variance 226.5819

95% 125 137 Skewness -.3404246

99% 132 145 Kurtosis 2.977035

IQ Range Description

36-50 Moderately Retarded

51-70 Mildly Retarded

70-90 Slow Learner

90-110 Average

110-120 Superior

120-140 Very Superior

140-180 Gifted

• Now let’s look at the estimated multiple regression model:

-------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 854) = 191.07

Model | 1277.79546 2 638.897729 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual | 2855.60011 854 3.34379404 R-squared = 0.3091

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.3075

Total | 4133.39557 856 4.82873314 Root MSE = 1.8286

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

educ | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

meduc | .1669298 .0232489 7.18 0.000 .121298 .2125615

IQ | .0651911 .0044139 14.77 0.000 .0565278 .0738544

_cons | 5.155378 .4398148 11.72 0.000 4.292133 6.018622

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• Note that b2 (the coefficient on IQ) is positive, as we hypothesized would be true for

Fact 1.

• Next step is to see if mother’s education is positively correlated with children’s IQ (for

Fact 2).

. correlate IQ meduc

(obs=857)

| IQ meduc

-------------+------------------

IQ | 1.0000

meduc | 0.3318 1.0000

. regress educ meduc

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 855) = 130.78

Model | 548.378173 1 548.378173 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual | 3585.01739 855 4.1930028 R-squared = 0.1327

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.1317

Total | 4133.39557 856 4.82873314 Root MSE = 2.0477

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

educ | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

meduc | .2808636 .0245594 11.44 0.000 .2326598 .3290674

_cons | 10.57491 .271523 38.95 0.000 10.04198 11.10783

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• Note that without IQ, the estimate of the coefficent on mother’s education is upwardly

biased – 0.28 instead of 0.16.

• Now we will add a fifth assumption to the four assumptions we have discussed so far

(linear in parameters, random sampling, zero conditional mean, no multicollinearity).

• When assuming conditional homoskedasticity, the variance of the estimators of 0, 1,

…, k can be simply calculated.

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• Remember the linear regression model:

y 0 1 x1 2 x2 ... k xk u

Var u | x1 , x2 ,..., xk 2

• When these five assumptions (the four basic assumptions plus conditional

homoskedasticity) are true, the variance of the estimator of any parameter j is

2

Var ˆ j

n 2

ij x x j 1 Rj

2

i 1

• As in the simple regression case, 2 cannot be measured directly. It must be

estimated:

n

1

ˆ

2

n k 1 i 1

uˆi2

ˆ 2

Se ˆ j

n 2

xij x j 1 R j

2

i 1

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• The Rj2 term refers to the R squared value of a regression of xj on the other x variables.

• You can see why multicollinearity is a problem; when xj is perfectly correlated with

the other x variables, this R squared is one and dividing by (1- Rj2) means dividing by

zero.

• The second point is that adding variables to the model will always increase the

variance of the estimator.

• This is because this causes the Rj2 to increase, increasing the variance.

• As an example we will explore the determinants of extra-marital affairs.

• The research questions are:

– Are older people more likely to have extra-marital affairs?

– Are people who have been married longer more likely to have extra-marital affairs?

. d

obs: 601

vars: 19 22 May 2002 11:49

size: 18,030 (97.8% of memory free)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

storage display value

variable name type format label variable label

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

…

age float %9.0g in years

yrsmarr float %9.0g years married

…

naffairs byte %9.0g number of affairs within last

year

…

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sorted by: id

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

. summarize age, detail

in years

-------------------------------------------------------------

Percentiles Smallest

1% 22 17.5

5% 22 17.5

10% 22 17.5 Obs 601

25% 27 17.5 Sum of Wgt. 601

Largest Std. Dev. 9.288762

75% 37 57

90% 47 57 Variance 86.28109

95% 52 57 Skewness .8869999

99% 57 57 Kurtosis 3.220077

. summarize yrsmar, detail

years married

-------------------------------------------------------------

Percentiles Smallest

1% .125 .125

5% .75 .125

10% 1.5 .125 Obs 601

25% 4 .125 Sum of Wgt. 601

Largest Std. Dev. 5.571303

75% 15 15

90% 15 15 Variance 31.03942

95% 15 15 Skewness .0779935

99% 15 15 Kurtosis 1.432516

. tabulate naffairs

number of |

affairs |

within last |

year | Freq. Percent Cum.

------------+-----------------------------------

0 | 451 75.04 75.04

1 | 34 5.66 80.70

2 | 17 2.83 83.53

3 | 19 3.16 86.69

7 | 42 6.99 93.68

12 | 38 6.32 100.00

------------+-----------------------------------

Total | 601 100.00

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• It is unfortunately the case, however, that age and years of marriage are highly

correlated:

(obs=601)

| age yrsmarr

-------------+------------------

age | 1.0000

yrsmarr | 0.7775 1.0000

• Regressing the number of affairs on age, it appears that older people are slightly more

likely to have affairs:

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 599) = 5.48

Model | 59.219586 1 59.219586 Prob > F = 0.0195

Residual | 6469.86194 599 10.8011051 R-squared = 0.0091

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.0074

Total | 6529.08153 600 10.8818026 Root MSE = 3.2865

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

naffairs | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

age | .033822 .0144444 2.34 0.020 .0054541 .0621899

_cons | .357114 .4880375 0.73 0.465 -.6013585 1.315586

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• People who have been married longer are more likely to have affairs, as well:

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 599) = 21.67

Model | 227.929033 1 227.929033 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual | 6301.1525 599 10.5194533 R-squared = 0.0349

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.0333

Total | 6529.08153 600 10.8818026 Root MSE = 3.2434

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

naffairs | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

yrsmarr | .1106286 .0237664 4.65 0.000 .0639529 .1573043

_cons | .5512198 .2351106 2.34 0.019 .0894785 1.012961

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• However, when both are put together the coefficient on age is inconclusive – its sign

changes. This suggests that there is a high variance in the measurement of this

coefficient.

. regress naffairs age yrsmar

-------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 598) = 12.86

Model | 269.275536 2 134.637768 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual | 6259.80599 598 10.467903 R-squared = 0.0412

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.0380

Total | 6529.08153 600 10.8818026 Root MSE = 3.2354

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

naffairs | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

age | -.0449423 .0226134 -1.99 0.047 -.0893536 -.000531

yrsmarr | .1688902 .0377022 4.48 0.000 .0948454 .242935

_cons | 1.534838 .5476808 2.80 0.005 .4592266 2.61045

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Break

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• Last time, we examined some consequences of misspecifying a multiple regression

model.

• In particular, we examined the implications of omitting an “important variable” from

the regression.

• x2 is an “important variable” if (a) it is correlated with x1 and (b) 2 is something other

than zero.

• In this case, the sign of the omitted variable bias is determined by the signs of (a) and

(b).

• So if the correlation is negative, and 2 is positive, the estimate 1 will be negatively

biased.

• We also examined the sampling variance of the OLS estimator in the multiple

regression case.

• In general, an estimate of the parameter k will be more precise if:

– xk has a high variance

– The number of data points (n) is high

– xk is less correlated with the other x variables (i.e., R2k is low).

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• When the five assumptions are true (linear form, random sampling, zero conditional

mean, no multicollinearity, conditional homoskedasticity) the ordinary least squares

estimator is BLUE.

• BLUE = Best Linear Unbiased Estimator

• “Best” means that the OLS estimator has the minimum possible variance of any linear

estimator.

• This result is known as the Gauss-Markov Theorem.

• If conditional homoskedasticity is violated, the parameter estimates are still unbiased,

but the OLS estimator isn’t the most efficient any more.

• The practice of altering the estimator to be more efficient when heteroskedasticity is

present is known as weighted least squares.

• As a further example of multiple regression analysis we will look at characteristics of

law schools and the starting salaries of their graduates.

• Graduates from more highly ranked law schools often earn more than those from

lower ranked law schools.

• Is it because of the law school, or because better law schools admit better applicants in

the first place?

. d

obs: 156

vars: 21 12 Mar 1999 15:06

size: 7,800 (99.0% of memory free)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

storage display value

variable name type format label variable label

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

rank int %9.0g law school ranking

salary float %9.0g median starting salary

cost int %9.0g law school cost

LSAT int %9.0g median LSAT score

GPA float %9.0g median college GPA

libvol int %9.0g no. volumes in lib., 1000s

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

• The dependent variable will be the logarithm of median starting salary for new

graduates.

• The independent variables measuring the quality of incoming students will be LSAT

scores and college GPAs.

• The independent variables measuring the quality of the school will be the logarithm of

the number of books in the school’s library, the logarithm of the cost of attending the

school and the media ranking of the law school.

• To start, we will try to find the relationship between graduates’ starting salaries and

school quality variables without any measure of the quality of entering students.

. generate lsalary=ln(salary)

. generate lcost=ln(cost)

. generate llibvol=ln(libvol)

-------------+------------------------------ F( 3, 137) = 211.04

Model | 8.8224849 3 2.9408283 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual | 1.90907945 137 .013934886 R-squared = 0.8221

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.8182

Total | 10.7315643 140 .076654031 Root MSE = .11805

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

lsalary | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

llibvol | .1291507 .0325187 3.97 0.000 .0648471 .1934543

lcost | .0265127 .0295489 0.90 0.371 -.0319182 .0849437

rank | -.0041712 .0002976 -14.02 0.000 -.0047596 -.0035829

_cons | 9.880132 .3433113 28.78 0.000 9.201258 10.55901

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• Now let’s try a more complete model, including measures of student quality.

• We expect the coefficient on 3 to be negative, but the others should all be positive.

Multiple Regression Analysis: Estimation

. regress lsalary llibvol lcost rank GPA LSAT

-------------+------------------------------ F( 5, 130) = 138.23

Model | 8.73362207 5 1.74672441 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual | 1.64272974 130 .012636383 R-squared = 0.8417

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.8356

Total | 10.3763518 135 .076861865 Root MSE = .11241

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

lsalary | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

llibvol | .0949932 .0332543 2.86 0.005 .0292035 .160783

lcost | .0375538 .0321061 1.17 0.244 -.0259642 .1010718

rank | -.0033246 .0003485 -9.54 0.000 -.004014 -.0026352

GPA | .2475239 .090037 2.75 0.007 .0693964 .4256514

LSAT | .0046965 .0040105 1.17 0.244 -.0032378 .0126308

_cons | 8.343226 .5325192 15.67 0.000 7.2897 9.396752

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• So far we have discussed only the mean and variance of the parameter estimates in the

multiple regression model:

y 0 1 x1 2 x2 ... k xk u

• We have not said anything about the distribution of the OLS estimators other than that.

• As a review, under the four basic assumptions of the linear regression model, the OLS

estimates of the parameters are unbiased:

E ˆ j j

• When conditional homoskedasticity is assumed:

– The variance of the OLS estimators can be written as

2

Var ˆ j

n 2

xij x j

1 Rj

2

i 1

– Additionally, the OLS estimators are BLUE – that is, among all estimators that are

both linear and unbiased, they have the minimum sampling variance possible.

Multiple Regression Analysis: Inference

• These five assumptions are collectively known as the Gauss-Markov assumptions.

• With a sixth assumption, the entire sampling distribution of the estimator can be

characterized.

• The assumption, known as the normality assumption states that u is independent of the

explanatory variables and:

u Normal 0, 2

• The form of the multiple regression model under these six assumptions can be

imagined succinctly as

y | x1 , x2 ,..., xk Normal 0 1 x1 2 x2 ... k xk , 2

• where the true values y are normal random variables with means equal to fitted values

constructed with the true parameters and variances all equal to 2.

• These six assumptions together are known as the classical linear model assumptions.

• Collectively, they imply that the sample distributions of the OLS estimators are

normally distributed:

ˆ j Normal j ,Var ˆ j

• As an example, consider if the error term u is independent of the x variables and takes

on the values -2, -1, 0, 1, and 2 with equal probability.

• This error term satisfies the Gauss-Markov assumptions.

• However, it violates the CLM assumptions.

Multiple Regression Analysis: Inference

• When the estimator is normally distributed, it can also be standardized:

ˆ j Normal j ,Var ˆ j

ˆ j j

Normal 0,1

Se ˆ j

• When an estimate of the standard error must be used, as is almost always the case, the

standardization is

ˆ j j

tn k 1

Seˆ ˆ j

• This standardization is used in hypothesis testing.

• Example of a hypothesis test:

• Two candidates, A and B, are running in an election. The official results say that

candidate B won the election with 54% of the vote.

• Candidate A thinks the election is rigged and hires a polling agency to ask 100 people

how they voted. The polling agency does so and 53 of the people it polls say they

voted for candidate A.

• There are two alternatives: the election results are accurate, or they aren’t.

• Suppose that represents the proportion of people that voted for candidate A (46%).

• An example of a null hypothesis is the hypothesis that the election results are

accurate:

H 0 : 0.46

Multiple Regression Analysis: Inference

• An example of an alternative hypothesis is that it is not:

H A : 0.46

• Candidate B brings his poll results to the local magistrate, who devises a statistical test

to find out if candidate B has evidence beyond a reasonable doubt that the election was

rigged.

• The standard for “beyond a reasonable doubt” most commonly used is the 5%

significance test.

• In other words, the test can at most have a 5% chance of rejecting the null hypothesis

(the results are accurate) if the null hypothesis is true.

• Suppose that the hypothesis is true ( . The next question is, what is the

sampling distribution of candidate A’s estimate if the hypothesis is TRUE?

• One way to find this out is through simulations.

.07889

Fraction

0

32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60

xb

Multiple Regression Analysis: Inference

• A test statistic is a function of the random sample of data.

• The outcome of this function is used to create a rejection rule for the null hypothesis.

• Usually the rejection rule is to reject the null hypothesis if the outcome of the function

exceeds some critical value.

• Let’s look at the simulated data and see if we can construct a rejection rule for the null

hypothesis that

xb

-------------------------------------------------------------

Percentiles Smallest

1% 34 24

5% 38 25

10% 40 26 Obs 100000

25% 43 26 Sum of Wgt. 100000

Largest Std. Dev. 5.001752

75% 49 66

90% 52 67 Variance 25.01752

95% 54 68 Skewness .0185113

99% 58 68 Kurtosis 2.989094

• A two-sided test might be to reject the null hypothesis if the poll results are greater or

less than certain values.

• For example, a 10% significance test would be to reject the null hypothesis if less than

38 people polled voted for A, or more than 54 people did.

• There is a 10% chance of a Type I error – rejecting the null hypothesis even if it is

true.

Multiple Regression Analysis: Inference

• Reducing the probability of Type I errors, however, increases the probability of

making a Type II error – failing to reject the null hypothesis if it is false.

• For example, suppose that 52% of the population actually voted for A. If so, it is still

fairly unlikely that one poll will show 58 people voting for A. If the poll

shows that 53 people voted for A, and the magistrate fails to reject the hypothesis that

a Type II error has been made.

• To summarize, a null hypothesis is rejected if the test statistic falls beyond the critical

values.

• If not we fail to reject the hypothesis.

• The percent chance of a Type I error (rejecting the hypothesis if it is true) is the

significance level of the test.

• Failing to reject a hypothesis is NOT “accepting” the hypothesis.

• For example, suppose that the cannon in front of the Vice-Chancellor’s house has been

stolen.

• The police know it was stolen at 2 in the morning.

• At the time, many people were taking part in a dance party nearby. A friend of yours

was there as well.

• Since your friend was there, if that is all the evidence you have, you fail to reject the

null hypothesis that your friend stole the cannon.

• However you have no evidence that your friend DID steal the cannon, either.

• Therefore you cannot “accept” the null hypothesis that your friend stole the cannon.

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