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Cuadro.

1
OFERTA Y DEMANDA FINALES EN EL TERRITORIO NACIONAL
Precios constantes de 2000
Series desestacionalizadas - I Trimestre año 2009
2,000
CONCEPTO
I II
Producto interno bruto 48,761,358 48,767,355
Importaciones totales1 9,109,837 9,149,485

TOTAL OFERTA FINAL 57,871,195 57,916,840

Consumo final 41,851,930 41,970,136


Hogares1 32,698,117 32,805,847
Gobierno 9,153,813 9,164,289

Formación bruta de capital 7,494,600 7,648,818

SUBTOTAL: Demanda final interna 49,346,530 49,618,954

Exportaciones totales1 8,524,665 8,297,886

TOTAL DEMANDA FINAL 57,871,195 57,916,840


1
Nota: Incluye las compras de bienes por residentes efectuadas en el exterior y excluye la de no residentes efectuadas en el territorio económico
FUENTE: DANE
* Cifras Provisionales

Cuadro. 2
CONSUMO FINAL DE LOS HOGARES A PRECIOS CONSTANTES DE 2000
Precios constantes de 2000
Series desestacionalizadas - I Trimestre año 2009
2,000
CONCEPTO
I II
CONSUMO FINAL INTERNO DE LOS HOGARES 1
32,667,785 32,786,439

Bienes no durables 12,362,751 12,445,420


Bienes semidurables 3,007,628 3,043,783
Servicios 15,836,714 15,820,065
Bienes durables 1,460,692 1,477,171
1
/ Corresponde al consumo final de los hogares residentes efectuado dentro del territorio económico.
FUENTE: DANE
* Cifras Provisionales
2,000 2,001

III IV I II III
49,363,348 49,481,790 49,605,295 49,616,119 50,451,353
9,242,359 9,549,929 10,121,040 10,247,125 9,971,279

58,605,707 59,031,719 59,726,335 59,863,244 60,422,632

42,157,874 42,543,575 42,803,003 43,182,741 43,369,797


32,950,923 33,010,799 33,348,699 33,826,400 33,690,346
9,206,951 9,532,776 9,454,304 9,356,341 9,679,451

7,748,063 7,868,067 8,245,025 8,348,196 8,285,687

49,905,937 50,411,642 51,048,028 51,530,937 51,655,484

8,699,770 8,620,077 8,678,307 8,332,307 8,767,148

58,605,707 59,031,719 59,726,335 59,863,244 60,422,632


as en el territorio económico

2,000 2,001

III IV I II III
32,929,723 33,017,649 33,368,829 33,807,218 33,716,835

12,571,668 12,427,905 12,568,442 12,670,319 12,608,198


2,854,039 2,951,619 2,953,639 3,089,445 2,944,622
16,061,720 16,200,500 16,358,846 16,490,287 16,563,538
1,442,296 1,437,625 1,487,902 1,557,167 1,600,477
2,002

IV I II III IV
50,984,342 50,294,569 51,835,077 51,800,912 51,660,723
9,847,807 9,382,066 10,320,276 10,549,524 10,623,418

60,832,149 59,676,635 62,155,353 62,350,436 62,284,141

44,031,335 44,114,608 44,561,366 45,328,232 45,152,134


34,097,009 34,325,601 34,522,056 35,049,515 35,327,679
9,934,326 9,789,007 10,039,310 10,278,717 9,824,455

8,304,973 6,959,976 9,092,466 8,915,831 8,946,513

52,336,308 51,074,584 53,653,832 54,244,063 54,098,647

8,495,841 8,602,051 8,501,521 8,106,373 8,185,494

60,832,149 59,676,635 62,155,353 62,350,436 62,284,141

2,002

IV I II III IV
34,184,642 34,301,523 34,472,171 35,015,928 35,219,627

12,709,031 12,958,353 12,977,793 13,079,713 13,113,097


3,133,350 3,081,971 3,006,370 3,228,105 3,201,970
16,669,287 16,538,977 16,653,242 16,767,319 16,942,276
1,672,974 1,722,222 1,834,766 1,940,791 1,962,284
2,003 2,004

I II III IV I
52,986,417 53,249,260 53,984,567 54,853,411 55,408,406
10,845,336 10,205,641 11,065,341 11,125,070 11,680,718

63,831,753 63,454,901 65,049,908 65,978,481 67,089,124

45,254,743 46,051,752 46,686,728 47,364,740 47,870,565


35,222,059 35,708,125 36,214,998 36,922,054 37,079,635
10,032,684 10,343,627 10,471,730 10,442,686 10,790,930

10,392,034 8,921,115 9,614,295 9,901,919 10,386,578

55,646,777 54,972,867 56,301,023 57,266,659 58,257,143

8,184,976 8,482,034 8,748,885 8,711,822 8,831,981

63,831,753 63,454,901 65,049,908 65,978,481 67,089,124

2,003 2,004

I II III IV I
35,156,366 35,607,191 36,111,384 36,789,927 36,962,566

13,117,843 13,300,835 13,528,062 13,792,392 13,768,139


3,225,165 3,250,666 3,291,090 3,330,364 3,357,510
16,829,498 17,037,466 17,155,525 17,412,456 17,525,548
1,983,860 2,018,224 2,136,707 2,254,715 2,311,369
2,004 2,005

II III IV I II
55,532,045 56,298,505 57,865,201 58,169,473 59,512,768
11,767,680 12,080,584 13,326,279 13,231,210 14,482,977

67,299,725 68,379,089 71,191,480 71,400,683 73,995,745

47,577,472 47,903,744 49,215,044 49,615,946 50,703,684


36,872,951 37,320,015 38,086,113 38,181,155 39,145,216
10,704,521 10,583,729 11,128,931 11,434,791 11,558,468

10,510,454 10,747,532 12,219,932 11,996,506 12,924,072

58,087,926 58,651,276 61,434,976 61,612,452 63,627,756

9,211,799 9,727,813 9,756,504 9,788,231 10,367,989

67,299,725 68,379,089 71,191,480 71,400,683 73,995,745

2,004 2,005

II III IV I II
36,846,015 37,302,551 38,063,212 38,132,952 39,163,039

13,758,160 13,803,445 14,041,829 14,008,869 14,276,043


3,283,330 3,422,108 3,507,145 3,482,683 3,649,612
17,451,539 17,684,041 17,947,207 18,016,146 18,381,850
2,352,986 2,392,957 2,567,031 2,625,254 2,855,534
2,005 2,006

III IV I II III
59,699,761 60,600,295 61,933,499 62,952,287 64,621,274
14,760,027 14,698,299 15,454,217 16,682,017 17,194,689

74,459,788 75,298,594 77,387,716 79,634,304 81,815,963

50,882,638 51,114,412 52,364,243 53,428,841 54,199,915


39,385,030 39,631,066 40,403,602 41,465,236 42,317,548
11,497,608 11,483,346 11,960,641 11,963,605 11,882,367

13,748,126 13,931,873 14,295,230 15,495,014 16,665,164

64,630,764 65,046,285 66,659,473 68,923,855 70,865,079

9,829,024 10,252,309 10,728,243 10,710,449 10,950,884

74,459,788 75,298,594 77,387,716 79,634,304 81,815,963

2,005 2,006

III IV I II III
39,342,017 39,667,618 40,392,132 41,410,135 42,267,821

14,291,171 14,308,069 14,399,559 14,829,439 15,208,107


3,628,229 3,562,354 3,522,790 3,674,121 3,780,768
18,601,698 18,821,608 19,287,745 19,608,078 19,913,725
2,820,919 2,975,587 3,182,038 3,298,497 3,365,221
2007*

IV I II III IV
64,998,488 67,280,742 67,763,402 68,400,334 70,265,779
17,131,824 18,142,221 18,349,085 19,377,886 19,800,628

82,130,312 85,422,963 86,112,487 87,778,220 90,066,407

54,862,103 56,567,373 56,813,951 57,922,889 58,418,878


42,769,479 44,292,312 44,485,501 45,238,509 45,644,078
12,092,624 12,275,061 12,328,450 12,684,380 12,774,800

16,211,460 17,412,020 17,685,722 17,658,109 18,504,276

71,073,563 73,979,393 74,499,673 75,580,998 76,923,154

11,056,799 11,443,570 11,612,814 12,197,222 13,143,253

82,130,362 85,422,963 86,112,487 87,778,220 90,066,407

2007*

IV I II III IV
42,847,780 44,345,973 44,450,756 45,158,853 45,540,408

15,486,597 15,879,005 15,768,498 16,126,875 16,149,418


3,841,808 4,059,180 3,976,740 4,021,817 4,081,738
20,085,569 20,632,564 20,971,280 21,223,756 21,613,790
3,433,806 3,775,224 3,734,238 3,786,405 3,695,462
2008*

I II III IV
70,128,727 70,292,938 70,643,052 69,583,150
20,523,651 20,053,164 20,920,543 21,576,935

90,652,378 90,346,102 91,563,595 91,160,085

58,662,545 58,338,447 58,786,736 58,646,997


46,214,150 45,710,025 45,902,691 45,878,085
12,448,395 12,628,422 12,884,045 12,768,912

18,874,635 19,367,127 20,205,447 19,054,266

77,537,180 77,705,574 78,992,183 77,701,263

13,115,198 12,640,528 12,571,412 13,458,822

90,652,378 90,346,102 91,563,595 91,160,085

2008*
I II III IV
46,083,028 45,570,064 45,745,481 46,016,590

16,337,207 16,185,704 16,151,429 16,197,184


4,186,725 4,044,068 4,042,330 4,071,326
21,913,129 21,799,681 21,948,862 22,192,334
3,645,967 3,540,611 3,602,860 3,555,746
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de 0.99764275 La intensidad de relacion es muy notoria, estamos frente a un planteamiento positivo y certero
Coeficiente d 0.99529106 Estamos frente a un modelo que esta muy cerca a 1 por lo tanto el planteamiento es verdadero y d
R^2 ajustado 0.99515256 la relacion dada es muy acertada
Error típico 319479.454 para nuestro planteamiento pordemos encontrar que el grado de error que podemos encontrar en l
Observacione 36

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 7.3349E+14 7.3349E+14 7186.31332 3.7468E-41
Residuos 34 3.4703E+12 1.0207E+11
Total 35 7.3696E+14

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 10171490.4 337890.382 30.1029295 4.2762E-26 9484814.49 10858166.2 9484814.49
TOTAL OFERT 0.3943437 0.00465181 84.7721259 3.7468E-41 0.38489009 0.40379731 0.38489009

si el consumo final es 0 se espera un produccion de: 10171490.4


si el consumo final es 32667785 se espera un producci 23053825.6
Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico consumo Residuos
(y) Residuos estándares
1 32992631.6 -324846.559 -1.03164411 32667785 minimo
2 33010631.4 -224192.377 -0.71198767 32786439
3 33282281.7 -352558.74 -1.11965214 32929723
4 33450276.9 -432627.888 -1.37393486 33017649
5 33724194.3 -355365.332 -1.12856529 33368829
6 33778183.5 29034.4662 0.09220734 33807218
7 33998774.7 -281939.668 -0.89538087 33716835
8 34160265.3 24376.7271 0.07741534 34184642
9 33704595.5 596927.55 1.8957159 34301523
10 34682062.3 -209891.279 -0.6665704 34472171
11 34758992 256935.969 0.8159744 35015928
12 34732849 486777.984 1.54590413 35219627
13 35343140.1 -186774.059 -0.59315499 35156366
14 35194530.8 412660.153 1.31052155 35607191
15 35823511.8 287872.19 0.91422131 36111384
16 36189688.7 600238.277 1.90623007 36789927
17 36627663.8 334902.207 1.06357872 36962566
18 36710713 135302.029 0.42969069 36846015
19 37136353.4 166197.635 0.52780861 37302551
20 38245402.1 -182190.135 -0.57859741 38063212
21 38327899.9 -194947.925 -0.61911346 38132952
22 39351246.3 -188207.277 -0.59770659 39163039
23 39534238.7 -192221.711 -0.61045558 39342017
24 39865016.6 -197398.574 -0.6268962 39667618
25 40688848.7 -296716.674 -0.94230953 40392132
26 41574776.5 -164641.5 -0.52286665 41410135
27 42435100 -167278.983 -0.53124274 42267821
28 42559061.5 288718.469 0.91690892 42847780
29 43857497.7 488475.288 1.55129441 44345973
30 44129407.2 321348.843 1.0205361 44450756
31 44786278.5 372574.527 1.18321806 45158853
32 45688610.6 -148202.602 -0.47066018 45540408
33 45919684.6 163343.425 0.51874424 46083028
34 45798906.6 -228842.564 -0.72675568 45570064
35 46279017.3 -533536.259 -1.69439854 45745481
36 46119895.6 -103305.632 -0.32807688 46016590
miento positivo y certero
nteamiento es verdadero y dado estos valores si es posible realizar postulaciones estadisticas , es decir en un 99.85 % existe una relacion

que podemos encontrar en la dependencia de y con relacion a x es 386974.5858

Superior 95.0%
10858166.2
0.40379731

TOTAL OFERTA FINAL (x) Gráfico de los residu


Residuos

800000
600000
400000
200000
0
55,000,000
-200000 60,000,000 65,000,000 70,000,000 75,000,000 80,000,000 85,000,0
-400000
-600000
TOTAL OFERTA FINAL (x)

La grafica obtenida nos muestra un relacion positiva que se dispersa so


99.85 % existe una relacion muy cercana entrela variable dependiente y su dependiente x

áfico de los residuales

00,000 80,000,000 85,000,000 90,000,000 95,000,000

TA FINAL (x)

n positiva que se dispersa sobre el eje y de una manera normal


TOTAL OFERTA FINAL (x) consumo (y)
1 57,871,195 32,667,785
2 57,916,840 32,786,439
3 58,605,707 32,929,723
4 59,031,719 33,017,649
5 59,726,335 33,368,829
6 59,863,244 33,807,218
7 60,422,632 33,716,835
8 60,832,149 34,184,642
9 59,676,635 34,301,523
10 62,155,353 34,472,171
11 62,350,436 35,015,928
12 62,284,141 35,219,627
13 63,831,753 35,156,366
14 63,454,901 35,607,191
15 65,049,908 36,111,384
16 65,978,481 36,789,927
17 67,089,124 36,962,566
18 67,299,725 36,846,015
19 68,379,089 37,302,551
20 71,191,480 38,063,212
21 71,400,683 38,132,952
22 73,995,745 39,163,039
23 74,459,788 39,342,017
24 75,298,594 39,667,618
25 77,387,716 40,392,132
26 79,634,304 41,410,135
27 81,815,963 42,267,821
28 82,130,312 42,847,780
29 85,422,963 44,345,973
30 86,112,487 44,450,756
31 87,778,220 45,158,853
32 90,066,407 45,540,408
33 90,652,378 46,083,028
34 90,346,102 45,570,064
35 91,563,595 45,745,481
36 91,160,085 46,016,590

maximo 91,563,595 46,083,028


minimo 57,871,195 32,667,785