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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL SEPTEMBER 18th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto
• Opinions on Use of Notwithstanding
Clause, Council Reduction, and Toronto
Secession
• Mayoral Voting Intentions
• Issue Importance

18th September 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey that was conducted between three levels of government, President and CEO
September 15th and 16th among a sample of Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
802 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in international public affairs.
Toronto. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from random was the only polling firm to correctly predict
digit dialing. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
Research and was not sponsored by a third elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
party. special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Opinion Research and meets international and
3.46% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Canadian publication standards.

(full methodology appears at the end of this CONTACT INFORMATION
report) In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TORONTONIANS STRONGLY OPPOSED TO FORD’S USE OF NOTWITHSTANDING CLAUSE

18 September 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Torontonians are strongly opposed to Premier Doug
Ford’s use of the notwithstanding clause to reduce the size of Toronto City Council from 47
to 25, a new Mainstreet Research survey has found.

The survey was conducted on September 15 and 16th among a sample of 802 adults, 18 years
of age or older living in Toronto. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.46% and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“Make no mistake about it: Doug Ford is on the wrong side of public opinion when it comes
to his use of the notwithstanding clause”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research. “65% of Torontonians say that they oppose the Premier’s move, with nearly 56%
saying that they strongly disapprove.”

The poll also found that Torontonians do not agree with reducing the size of City Council,
with just over 55% of respondents saying that they disapprove of the decision, with 46%
saying they strongly disagree with having a smaller Council.

“What is interesting is that opposition to both the use of the notwithstanding clause and
the reduction of City Council is opposed strongly by residents in nearly all areas in Toronto
– including the Premier’s home neighbourhood in Etobicoke,” Maggi added. “Only in North
York do we find more people narrowly agreeing with having fewer councillors.”

Torontonians also oppose having Toronto secede from the province of Ontario and become
an autonomous city within the Canadian federation, an idea first mused upon by mayoral
candidate Jennifer Keesmaat.

“Keesmaat was right to walk back her idea for Toronto secession because Toronto voters are
almost as opposed to the notion as the Premier using the notwithstanding clause,” continued
Maggi.

The poll also asked which mayoral candidate they were planning to vote for. Among decided
voters, incumbent John Tory leads with 61.8%, while Keesmaat has 25.6%. Faith Goldy has
6% support while 6.4% of Torontonians said they would support another candidate.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean
toward?

26.4%

45.5%

All Voters
4.7%

4.4%

llDecided
Voters Voters 19%

6.4%
John Tory Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another Candidate Undecided
6%
26.4%

45.5%

All Voters
25.8% Decided Voters
4.7%

61.8%
4.4%

19%

John Tory Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another Candidate Undecided
John Tory Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another Candidate
Do you approve or disapprove of the
following issue?

110

100

90

80

70

60

46%
47.3%
50

9.3% 55.7%

40

8.8% 16.7%
12.1%
30

10.3%

20
18.9%

10

0 32.6% 25.2% 17.2%
Council Reduction Notwithstanding Clause Toronto Secession

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove
And what would you say is the top priority,
ortance
in other words, what issue are you most
concerned about?

5.3%
13.4%
10.7%

10.3%
8.5%
Issue Importance

2.8% Issue Importance5.3%
13.4%
10.7%

10.3%
8.5% 16%
11.6%
2.8% Issue Importance

16%
11.6%

21.3%
21.3%

ntability and Transparency City services
Accountability and Transparency
for seniors and children
City services for seniors and children Crime and Safety
Crime an
Housing Affordability Jobs and Economic Developmemt Property Taxes Traffic and Congestion

ordability Jobs and Economic Developmemt
Transit Another Issue Property Taxes Traffic a

Transit Another Issue
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean toward?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 45.5% 46.4% 44.6% 38.9% 35.3% 54.4% 56.5% 41.3% 42.2% 43.6% 55.8%
Jennifer Keesmat 19% 18.4% 19.5% 17.6% 22.2% 17% 19.8% 26.9% 19.9% 12.4% 16%
Faith Goldy 4.4% 5.7% 3.3% 3.7% 7.1% 4.7% 1.9% 2.8% 2.6% 6.1% 5.7%
Another Candidate 4.7% 5.4% 4.1% 4.9% 6.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.7% 5.6% 6.2% 3.5%
Undecided 26.4% 24.1% 28.5% 34.8% 28.7% 20.4% 18.5% 25.3% 29.7% 31.6% 19.1%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 61.8% 61.1% 62.4% 59.7% 49.4% 68.4% 69.3% 55.3% 60.1% 63.8% 69%
Jennifer Keesmat 25.8% 24.3% 27.3% 27% 31.1% 21.3% 24.3% 36% 28.3% 18.1% 19.7%
Faith Goldy 6% 7.6% 4.6% 5.7% 9.9% 5.9% 2.4% 3.8% 3.6% 8.9% 7%
Another Candidate 6.4% 7.1% 5.7% 7.6% 9.5% 4.4% 4% 5% 8% 9.1% 4.3%
Unweighted Frequency 608 336 272 97 147 207 207 250 250 136 117
Weighted Frequency 608 288 302 159 139 152 162 197 197 168 148

As you might have heard, the provincial government has passed the
Efficient Local Government Act, which will cut the size of City Council
by nearly half and will have Toronto residents elect 25 councillors to
City Hall instead of 47. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Strongly approve 32.6% 39.7% 26.3% 28.4% 32.6% 36.3% 34.4% 22.8% 32.7% 38.2% 39.3%
Somewhat approve 12.1% 12.9% 11.3% 10.7% 11.6% 14.1% 12.1% 12.5% 11.8% 14.6% 8.2%
Somewhat disapprove 9.3% 6.4% 12% 13.7% 7.9% 6.9% 7.5% 10.9% 12.1% 8.3% 6.8%
Strongly disapprove 46% 41.1% 50.4% 47.3% 47.8% 42.7% 46% 53.8% 43.5% 39% 45.6%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184

Do you approve or disapprove of the premier’s use of the
notwithstanding clause?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Strongly approve 25.2% 34% 17.3% 20.7% 25.3% 29.4% 26.3% 16.8% 20.2% 35% 26.9%
Somewhat approve 10.3% 9.9% 10.7% 13.1% 8.4% 9.2% 9.9% 9.3% 10.4% 9.9% 12.4%
Somewhat disapprove 8.8% 7.1% 10.3% 11.3% 10.4% 7.8% 4.1% 8.5% 9.1% 6% 12.7%
Strongly disapprove 55.7% 49% 61.7% 54.9% 55.9% 53.6% 59.6% 65.4% 60.2% 49.1% 48%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184
Do you think that Toronto should separate from the province of
Ontario and function as an autonomous city with more legislative
authority within Canada?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Strongly approve 17.2% 22.7% 12.3% 13.8% 23% 17.1% 15.3% 20% 18% 15.2% 15.3%
Somewhat approve 18.9% 17.1% 20.4% 18.5% 18% 16.6% 23.4% 19% 20.2% 19.5% 17%
Somewhat disapprove 16.7% 14.7% 18.5% 15.3% 17.9% 17.8% 15.9% 18.2% 14.4% 16.3% 16.4%
Strongly disapprove 47.3% 45.5% 48.8% 52.4% 41.1% 48.5% 45.3% 42.8% 47.3% 48.9% 51.4%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184

And what would you say is the top priority, in other words, what issue
are you most concerned about?
18- 35- 50- Downtown North
Total Male Female 65+ Etobicoke Scarborough
34 49 64 Toronto York
Accountability and Transparency 13.4% 13.6% 13.3% 11.3% 12.8% 13.9% 16.6% 12.9% 14.5% 12.6% 14.5%
City services for seniors and
10.3% 8% 12.4% 3.9% 10.4% 9.1% 21.6% 11% 6.2% 8.7% 13.8%
children
Crime and Safety 16% 16.4% 15.6% 10.9% 18.9% 20.6% 14.5% 15.4% 17.2% 18.4% 12.9%
Housing Affordability 21.3% 19.8% 22.7% 28.7% 19.5% 18% 16.5% 25.1% 19.9% 19.9% 18.7%
Jobs and Economic Developmemt 11.6% 12.4% 10.9% 17.3% 9.9% 9.9% 7.2% 8.4% 17.1% 11.8% 12.8%
Property Taxes 2.8% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1.9% 4% 4.7% 3% 1.1% 1.6% 5.3%
Traffic and Congestion 8.5% 9.2% 8% 7.5% 10% 9.4% 7.2% 6.3% 8.6% 11.8% 7.3%
Transit 10.7% 12.9% 8.8% 10.8% 13.8% 9.9% 7.8% 13.4% 9.6% 9.2% 9.6%
Another Issue 5.3% 4.4% 6% 8.1% 2.9% 5.2% 3.9% 4.5% 5.7% 6% 5%
Unweighted Frequency 802 436 366 149 204 258 191 324 143 192 143
Weighted Frequency 802 379 423 244 195 204 159 264 109 245 184
QUESTIONNAIRE
On October 22 2018, you will have a Do you think that Toronto should separate
chance to vote in your municipal election. from the province of Ontario and function
Which mayoral candidate would you vote as an autonomous city with more
for, or might lean toward? legislative authority within Canada?
(first two responses randomized) Strongly Agree
John Tory Somewhat Agree
Jennifer Keesmaat Somewhat Disagree
Faith Goldy Strongly Disagree
Another Candidate
Undecided What issue is the most important for you in
this upcoming municipal election?
As you might have heard, the provincial Accountability & Transparency
government has passed the Efficient Local City services for seniors & children
Government Act, which will cut the size of Crime and Safety
City Council by nearly half and will have Housing Affordability
Toronto residents elect 25 councillors to Jobs & Economic Development
City Hall instead of 47. Do you approve or Property Taxes
disapprove of this decision? Traffic & Congestion
Strongly Approve Transit
Somewhat Approve Another issue
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove What is your gender?
Male
Also, you might have heard that an Female
Ontario Superior Court judge struck down
the provincial government’s original What is your age group?
bill to downsize Toronto City Council 18 to 34 years of age
as unconstitutional. Premier Doug Ford 35 to 49 years of age
then passed the bill by invoking the 50 to 64 years of age
notwithstanding clause, a section in the 65 years of age or older
Charter of Rights and Freedoms that
allows governments to override certain
parts of the Constitution.
Do you approve or disapprove of the
premier’s use of the notwithstanding
clause?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between September
15th, 2018 and September 16th, 2018, among a sample of 802 adults, 18 years of age or older,
living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents
were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of Toronto.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing. Respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.46% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.69%, Females: +/- 5.12%,
18-34 age group: +/- 8.03%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.86%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.1%, 65+ age
group: +/- 7.09%, Downtown Toronto: +/- 5.44%, Etobicoke: +/- 8.19%, Etobicoke: +/- 7.07%,
Scarborough: +/- 8.19%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.