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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL SEPTEMBER 18th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto

Opinions on Use of Notwithstanding Clause, Council Reduction, and Toronto Secession

Mayoral Voting Intentions

Issue Importance

18th September 2018

Clause, Council Reduction, and Toronto Secession • Mayoral Voting Intentions • Issue Importance 18th September 2018
METHODOLOGY The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey that was

METHODOLOGY

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey that was conducted between September 15th and 16th among a sample of 802 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.46% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

(full methodology appears at the end of this report)

ABOUT MAINSTREET

With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate

snapshots of public opinion, having predicted

a majority NDP government in Alberta, and

was the only polling firm to correctly predict

a Liberal majority government in the 2015

federal election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections in November 2017, and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication standards.

CONTACT INFORMATION

In Ottawa:

Quito Maggi, President quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:

www.mainstreetresearch.ca

twitter.com/MainStResearch

facebook.com/mainstreetresearch

TORONTONIANS STRONGLY OPPOSED TO FORD’S USE OF NOTWITHSTANDING CLAUSE 18 September 2018 (Toronto, ON) –

TORONTONIANS STRONGLY OPPOSED TO FORD’S USE OF NOTWITHSTANDING CLAUSE

18 September 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Torontonians are strongly opposed to Premier Doug

Ford’s use of the notwithstanding clause to reduce the size of Toronto City Council from 47 to 25, a new Mainstreet Research survey has found.

The survey was conducted on September 15 and 16th among a sample of 802 adults, 18 years of age or older living in Toronto. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.46% and is accurate

19 times out of 20.

“Make no mistake about it: Doug Ford is on the wrong side of public opinion when it comes to his use of the notwithstanding clause”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “65% of Torontonians say that they oppose the Premier’s move, with nearly 56% saying that they strongly disapprove.”

The poll also found that Torontonians do not agree with reducing the size of City Council, with just over 55% of respondents saying that they disapprove of the decision, with 46% saying they strongly disagree with having a smaller Council.

“What is interesting is that opposition to both the use of the notwithstanding clause and the reduction of City Council is opposed strongly by residents in nearly all areas in Toronto – including the Premier’s home neighbourhood in Etobicoke,” Maggi added. “Only in North York do we find more people narrowly agreeing with having fewer councillors.”

Torontonians also oppose having Toronto secede from the province of Ontario and become an autonomous city within the Canadian federation, an idea first mused upon by mayoral candidate Jennifer Keesmaat.

“Keesmaat was right to walk back her idea for Toronto secession because Toronto voters are almost as opposed to the notion as the Premier using the notwithstanding clause,” continued Maggi.

The poll also asked which mayoral candidate they were planning to vote for. Among decided voters, incumbent John Tory leads with 61.8%, while Keesmaat has 25.6%. Faith Goldy has 6% support while 6.4% of Torontonians said they would support another candidate.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean toward?

26.4% 45.5% All Voters 4.7% 4.4% 19%
26.4%
45.5%
All Voters
4.7%
4.4%
19%
might lean toward? 26.4% 45.5% All Voters 4.7% 4.4% 19% John Tory 25.8% 6.4% 6% Decided

John Tory

25.8%

6.4% 6% Decided Voters 61.8%
6.4%
6%
Decided Voters
61.8%
4.7% 4.4% 19% John Tory 25.8% 6.4% 6% Decided Voters 61.8% Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another

Jennifer Keesmat

4.7% 4.4% 19% John Tory 25.8% 6.4% 6% Decided Voters 61.8% Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another

Faith Goldy

4.7% 4.4% 19% John Tory 25.8% 6.4% 6% Decided Voters 61.8% Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another

Another Candidate

4.7% 4.4% 19% John Tory 25.8% 6.4% 6% Decided Voters 61.8% Jennifer Keesmat Faith Goldy Another

Undecided

Do you approve or disapprove of the following issue?

100 90 80 70 60 46% 47.3% 50 9.3% 55.7% 40 16.7% 8.8% 12.1% 30
100
90
80
70
60
46%
47.3%
50
9.3%
55.7%
40
16.7%
8.8%
12.1%
30
10.3%
20
18.9%
10
0
32.6%
25.2%
17.2%
Council Reduction
Notwithstanding Clause
Toronto Secession
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove

And what would you say is the top priority, in other words, what issue are you most concerned about?

5.3% 13.4% 10.7% 10.3% 8.5% Issue Importance 2.8% 16% 11.6% 21.3% Accountability and Transparency City
5.3%
13.4%
10.7%
10.3%
8.5%
Issue Importance
2.8%
16%
11.6%
21.3%
Accountability and Transparency
City services for seniors and children
Crime and Safety
Housing Affordability
Jobs and Economic Developmemt
Property Taxes
Traffic and Congestion
Transit
Another Issue

Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean toward?

(all voters)

 

Total

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Downtown Toronto

Etobicoke

North York

Scarborough

John Tory

45.5%

46.4%

44.6%

38.9%

35.3%

54.4%

56.5%

41.3%

42.2%

43.6%

55.8%

Jennifer Keesmat

19%

18.4%

19.5%

17.6%

22.2%

17%

19.8%

26.9%

19.9%

12.4%

16%

Faith Goldy

4.4%

5.7%

3.3%

3.7%

7.1%

4.7%

1.9%

2.8%

2.6%

6.1%

5.7%

Another Candidate

4.7%

5.4%

4.1%

4.9%

6.8%

3.5%

3.3%

3.7%

5.6%

6.2%

3.5%

Undecided

26.4%

24.1%

28.5%

34.8%

28.7%

20.4%

18.5%

25.3%

29.7%

31.6%

19.1%

Unweighted Frequency

802

436

366

149

204

258

191

324

143

192

143

Weighted Frequency

802

379

423

244

195

204

159

264

109

245

184

 

(decided voters)

 
 

Total

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Downtown Toronto

Etobicoke

North York

Scarborough

John Tory

61.8%

61.1%

62.4%

59.7%

49.4%

68.4%

69.3%

55.3%

60.1%

63.8%

69%

Jennifer Keesmat

25.8%

24.3%

27.3%

27%

31.1%

21.3%

24.3%

36%

28.3%

18.1%

19.7%

Faith Goldy

6%

7.6%

4.6%

5.7%

9.9%

5.9%

2.4%

3.8%

3.6%

8.9%

7%

Another Candidate

6.4%

7.1%

5.7%

7.6%

9.5%

4.4%

4%

5%

8%

9.1%

4.3%

Unweighted Frequency

608

336

272

97

147

207

207

250

250

136

117

Weighted Frequency

608

288

302

159

139

152

162

197

197

168

148

As you might have heard, the provincial government has passed the Efficient Local Government Act, which will cut the size of City Council by nearly half and will have Toronto residents elect 25 councillors to City Hall instead of 47. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?

 

Total

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Downtown Toronto

Etobicoke

North York

Scarborough

Strongly approve

32.6%

39.7%

26.3%

28.4%

32.6%

36.3%

34.4%

22.8%

32.7%

38.2%

39.3%

Somewhat approve

12.1%

12.9%

11.3%

10.7%

11.6%

14.1%

12.1%

12.5%

11.8%

14.6%

8.2%

Somewhat disapprove

9.3%

6.4%

12%

13.7%

7.9%

6.9%

7.5%

10.9%

12.1%

8.3%

6.8%

Strongly disapprove

46%

41.1%

50.4%

47.3%

47.8%

42.7%

46%

53.8%

43.5%

39%

45.6%

Unweighted Frequency

802

436

366

149

204

258

191

324

143

192

143

Weighted Frequency

802

379

423

244

195

204

159

264

109

245

184

Do you approve or disapprove of the premier’s use of the notwithstanding clause?

 

Total

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Downtown Toronto

Etobicoke

North York

Scarborough

Strongly approve

25.2%

34%

17.3%

20.7%

25.3%

29.4%

26.3%

16.8%

20.2%

35%

26.9%

Somewhat approve

10.3%

9.9%

10.7%

13.1%

8.4%

9.2%

9.9%

9.3%

10.4%

9.9%

12.4%

Somewhat disapprove

8.8%

7.1%

10.3%

11.3%

10.4%

7.8%

4.1%

8.5%

9.1%

6%

12.7%

Strongly disapprove

55.7%

49%

61.7%

54.9%

55.9%

53.6%

59.6%

65.4%

60.2%

49.1%

48%

Unweighted Frequency

802

436

366

149

204

258

191

324

143

192

143

Weighted Frequency

802

379

423

244

195

204

159

264

109

245

184

Do you think that Toronto should separate from the province of Ontario and function as an autonomous city with more legislative authority within Canada?

 

Total

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Downtown Toronto

Etobicoke

North York

Scarborough

Strongly approve

17.2%

22.7%

12.3%

13.8%

23%

17.1%

15.3%

20%

18%

15.2%

15.3%

Somewhat approve

18.9%

17.1%

20.4%

18.5%

18%

16.6%

23.4%

19%

20.2%

19.5%

17%

Somewhat disapprove

16.7%

14.7%

18.5%

15.3%

17.9%

17.8%

15.9%

18.2%

14.4%

16.3%

16.4%

Strongly disapprove

47.3%

45.5%

48.8%

52.4%

41.1%

48.5%

45.3%

42.8%

47.3%

48.9%

51.4%

Unweighted Frequency

802

436

366

149

204

258

191

324

143

192

143

Weighted Frequency

802

379

423

244

195

204

159

264

109

245

184

And what would you say is the top priority, in other words, what issue are you most concerned about?

 

18-

35-

50-

Downtown

North

 

Total

Male

Female

34

49

64

65+

Toronto

Etobicoke

York

Scarborough

Accountability and Transparency

13.4%

13.6%

13.3%

11.3%

12.8%

13.9%

16.6%

12.9%

14.5%

12.6%

14.5%

City services for seniors and children

10.3%

8%

12.4%

3.9%

10.4%

9.1%

21.6%

11%

6.2%

8.7%

13.8%

Crime and Safety

16%

16.4%

15.6%

10.9%

18.9%

20.6%

14.5%

15.4%

17.2%

18.4%

12.9%

Housing Affordability

21.3%

19.8%

22.7%

28.7%

19.5%

18%

16.5%

25.1%

19.9%

19.9%

18.7%

Jobs and Economic Developmemt

11.6%

12.4%

10.9%

17.3%

9.9%

9.9%

7.2%

8.4%

17.1%

11.8%

12.8%

Property Taxes

2.8%

3.4%

2.4%

1.4%

1.9%

4%

4.7%

3%

1.1%

1.6%

5.3%

Trac and Congestion

8.5%

9.2%

8%

7.5%

10%

9.4%

7.2%

6.3%

8.6%

11.8%

7.3%

Transit

10.7%

12.9%

8.8%

10.8%

13.8%

9.9%

7.8%

13.4%

9.6%

9.2%

9.6%

Another Issue

5.3%

4.4%

6%

8.1%

2.9%

5.2%

3.9%

4.5%

5.7%

6%

5%

Unweighted Frequency

802

436

366

149

204

258

191

324

143

192

143

Weighted Frequency

802

379

423

244

195

204

159

264

109

245

184

QUESTIONNAIRE On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in your municipal

QUESTIONNAIRE

On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in your municipal election. Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean toward? (first two responses randomized) John Tory Jennifer Keesmaat

Faith Goldy Another Candidate Undecided

As you might have heard, the provincial government has passed the Efficient Local Government Act, which will cut the size of City Council by nearly half and will have Toronto residents elect 25 councillors to City Hall instead of 47. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove

Also, you might have heard that an Ontario Superior Court judge struck down

the provincial government’s original bill to downsize Toronto City Council as unconstitutional. Premier Doug Ford then passed the bill by invoking the notwithstanding clause, a section in the Charter of Rights and Freedoms that allows governments to override certain parts of the Constitution. Do you approve or disapprove of the premier’s use of the notwithstanding clause? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove

premier’s use of the notwithstanding clause? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove
premier’s use of the notwithstanding clause? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove

Do you think that Toronto should separate from the province of Ontario and function as an autonomous city with more legislative authority within Canada? Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree

city with more legislative authority within Canada? Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree
What issue is the most important for you in this upcoming municipal election? Accountability &

What issue is the most important for you in this upcoming municipal election? Accountability & Transparency City services for seniors & children Crime and Safety Housing Affordability Jobs & Economic Development Property Taxes Traffic & Congestion Transit Another issue

What is your gender? Male Female

What is your age group?

18

35

to 34 years of age

to 49 years of age

50 to 64 years of age 65 years of age or older

50 to 64 years of age 65 years of age or older
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted

METHODOLOGY STATEMENT

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between September 15th, 2018 and September 16th, 2018, among a sample of 802 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Toronto.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www. mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.46% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.69%, Females: +/- 5.12%, 18-34 age group: +/- 8.03%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.86%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.1%, 65+ age group: +/- 7.09%, Downtown Toronto: +/- 5.44%, Etobicoke: +/- 8.19%, Etobicoke: +/- 7.07%, Scarborough: +/- 8.19%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.