You are on page 1of 7

21 septembre 2018 www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 30.2 21.4 29.2 14.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 -
sièges 45 22 52 6 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 29.9% 0.5% 66.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 0.4% 0.0% 6.3% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 28.9% 26.8% 26.5% 15.7% 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 46% 27% 27% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 26.1% 31.4% 23.9% 17.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 21% 67% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 61.1% 7.9% 14.7% 12.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 40.7% 17.5% 21.0% 18.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 27.6% 27.7% 31.3% 10.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 23% 21% 56% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 21.9% 11.5% 51.2% 10.7% 1.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 27.5% 3.8% 56.5% 8.4% 0.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 43.0% 1.7% 43.2% 7.5% 0.2% 4.0% 0.4% 48% 0% 52% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 19.4% 34.2% 30.1% 12.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.5% 1% 69% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 38.8% 10.3% 38.9% 8.3% 0.2% 3.0% 0.4% 49% 0% 51% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 7.5% 34.5% 39.5% 15.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 26% 74% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 12.8% 32.2% 35.9% 17.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 30% 70% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 20.9% 24.0% 41.0% 11.7% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0% 1% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 31.3% 41.5% 10.4% 16.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 11% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 11.7% 28.1% 41.4% 16.5% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 50.3% 13.6% 16.7% 16.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 20.3% 31.3% 23.7% 21.6% 2.2% 0.3% 0.6% 3% 79% 13% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 28.1% 16.7% 37.6% 15.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 11% 0% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 13.5% 28.6% 41.7% 12.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 25.3% 25.1% 35.8% 12.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 7% 5% 88% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 42.6% 14.1% 24.0% 15.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.6% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 30.6% 16.5% 38.2% 11.4% 0.5% 2.5% 0.4% 15% 0% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 24.7% 31.4% 30.1% 10.7% 0.5% 2.2% 0.4% 8% 52% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 39.9% 18.8% 27.5% 11.4% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 93% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 29.5% 5.7% 48.0% 7.2% 0.5% 8.7% 0.4% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 21.8% 33.2% 24.2% 18.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 4% 84% 11% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 65.2% 7.9% 18.8% 6.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 22.1% 11.9% 52.6% 9.6% 0.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 32.4% 18.3% 33.0% 12.5% 0.3% 3.0% 0.4% 45% 0% 54% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 77.3% 0.0% 8.8% 9.1% 3.3% 1.0% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 15.8% 27.7% 42.2% 12.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 14.6% 22.6% 47.4% 13.1% 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 29.3% 28.8% 26.7% 14.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 41% 36% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 26.9% 35.9% 20.4% 15.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 11% 88% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 44.8% 17.5% 25.2% 8.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 22.7% 48.2% 12.5% 15.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 44.1% 14.2% 24.1% 16.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 9.2% 14.0% 9.6% 63.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 7.9% 17.3% 60.4% 12.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 20.5% 25.9% 38.8% 12.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 4% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 10.1% 29.0% 16.6% 41.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 8% 0% 92% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 41.4% 17.6% 19.1% 20.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 35.9% 15.9% 32.0% 13.4% 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 68% 0% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 14.8% 26.3% 42.0% 15.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 38.2% 35.9% 9.2% 15.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 61% 39% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 70.2% 0.0% 13.5% 8.9% 5.1% 1.7% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 23.6% 22.8% 30.1% 20.3% 0.5% 2.3% 0.4% 13% 9% 75% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 67.4% 3.4% 12.6% 13.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 35.9% 21.4% 23.7% 15.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.4% 95% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 14.2% 27.0% 42.0% 14.6% 0.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 7.4% 39.1% 35.1% 16.0% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0% 67% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 15.9% 36.1% 32.6% 14.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 66% 34% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 12.5% 39.8% 29.6% 16.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 17.8% 37.5% 27.2% 15.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0% 90% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 62.4% 5.6% 15.1% 14.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 24.0% 8.7% 54.0% 9.8% 0.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 51.1% 8.1% 27.7% 11.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 40.5% 17.2% 25.1% 13.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 24.3% 22.1% 39.8% 11.6% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 2% 1% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 1.5% 26.7% 58.0% 11.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 33.3% 11.1% 12.4% 39.9% 2.3% 0.3% 0.6% 24% 0% 0% 76% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 35.3% 28.2% 24.9% 8.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.4% 76% 16% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 27.1% 25.5% 32.3% 12.8% 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 19% 11% 70% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 6.1% 31.5% 45.6% 14.2% 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 25.3% 13.3% 46.8% 10.9% 1.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 32.0% 14.0% 39.7% 10.3% 0.3% 3.3% 0.4% 16% 0% 84% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 24.1% 16.8% 46.2% 8.7% 1.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 57.1% 11.4% 16.6% 10.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 16.6% 36.2% 25.5% 17.3% 3.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 91% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 42.8% 13.8% 23.1% 13.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 27.0% 22.6% 36.0% 12.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 10% 2% 88% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 8.2% 29.4% 48.2% 11.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 11.1% 56.8% 16.4% 14.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 29.3% 25.7% 18.0% 24.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 60% 26% 1% 14% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 30.2% 25.6% 28.5% 14.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 50% 15% 35% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 17.9% 13.9% 12.3% 53.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 41.8% 22.3% 25.4% 7.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 97% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 9.3% 29.8% 46.9% 11.6% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 22.2% 21.8% 42.1% 12.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 26.2% 16.6% 39.7% 11.7% 1.5% 3.9% 0.4% 3% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 53.8% 8.5% 15.5% 16.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 67.8% 3.9% 16.3% 6.0% 4.2% 1.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 17.1% 18.5% 46.1% 15.6% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 65.3% 2.0% 11.8% 13.1% 6.4% 0.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 30.0% 23.4% 28.1% 17.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 55% 8% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 37.9% 20.2% 24.5% 16.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 95% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 14.8% 33.4% 29.4% 19.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 68% 30% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 60.1% 4.4% 18.1% 16.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 31.5% 11.3% 42.9% 10.9% 0.5% 2.5% 0.4% 6% 0% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 12.0% 29.7% 41.3% 15.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 19.5% 45.6% 20.0% 13.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 12.7% 29.1% 43.8% 12.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 15.3% 31.9% 36.6% 12.3% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0% 25% 75% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 25.6% 23.6% 32.6% 15.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 14% 7% 79% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 18.9% 36.7% 21.6% 22.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1% 96% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 40.4% 19.4% 23.3% 16.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 98% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 75.2% 0.4% 11.6% 7.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 43.4% 29.7% 14.3% 11.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 96% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 21.3% 32.5% 14.4% 28.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 3% 71% 0% 27% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 2.7% 34.7% 46.6% 14.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue25.8% 28.4% 24.7% 20.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 27% 50% 20% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 28.2% 29.1% 23.0% 16.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 41% 50% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 41.6% 18.5% 16.2% 17.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 17.2% 24.7% 40.6% 15.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 16.9% 27.2% 38.8% 14.8% 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0% 6% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 10.3% 33.9% 39.8% 13.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 23% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 63.8% 1.1% 17.2% 12.1% 3.3% 2.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 20.6% 20.7% 12.4% 43.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 33.3% 24.2% 32.2% 9.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 52% 4% 44% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 16.7% 30.4% 38.8% 11.6% 0.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0% 14% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 26.0% 27.1% 22.5% 21.4% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 36% 46% 13% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 41.0% 19.4% 26.7% 10.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 21.2% 29.1% 31.3% 16.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 3% 35% 62% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 26.2% 21.9% 18.1% 30.8% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 25% 6% 1% 67% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 12.2% 31.7% 41.9% 12.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 10% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 27.4% 24.1% 30.9% 15.2% 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 27% 9% 64% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 30.7% 29.8% 24.4% 14.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 50% 40% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 24.0% 28.6% 32.6% 13.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 6% 27% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 33.1% 13.8% 38.4% 11.2% 0.5% 2.6% 0.4% 23% 0% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 49.1% 12.9% 23.9% 10.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 10.3% 37.7% 37.3% 12.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0% 51% 49% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 39.8% 19.8% 17.4% 17.1% 4.2% 1.2% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 52.2% 9.5% 13.9% 21.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 42.0% 20.2% 27.0% 8.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 64.6% 0.0% 15.6% 13.2% 5.2% 0.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges


Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)