Business Forecasting

The arol music company has been in business Ior 5 years During that time, sales oI electric organs have
increased Irom units in the Iirst year to 76 units in the most recent year Carol, Pinto the Iirm`s owner,
wants to develop a Iorecast oI organ sales Ior the coming year The historical data Iollow
Year 3 4 5
Sales 34 50 76
a Show a graph oI this time series Does a linear trend appear to be present?
b Develop the equation Ior a linear trend component Ior the time series What is the average increase in
sales that the Iirm has been realizing per year?
The quarterly sales data Iollow:
Year Quarter Quarter Quarter3 Quarter4 Total yearly sales
4 5
6 4 4 4
3 0 3 5 6 34
4 9 7 50
5 0 3 35 76
c Compute the SI Ior the Iour quarters
d When does Carol Music experience the largest seasonal eIIect? Does this appear reasonable? Explain
e Deseasonalize the data and use the deseasonalized time series to identiIy the trend
I &se the results oI part e to develop a quarterly Iorecast Ior next year based on trend
g &se the seasonal indexes developed in part c to adiust the Iorecasts developed in part I to account Ior
the eIIect oI season

ind Marine has been an authorized dealer Ior C&D marine radios Ior the past 7 years The Iollowing table
reports the number oI radios sold each year
Year 3 4 5 6 7
Number Sold 35 50 75 90 05 0 30
a Show a graph oI this time series Does a linear trend appear to be present?
b Develop the equation Ior the linear trend component oI the time series
c &se the linear trend developed in part b to develop a Iorecast Ior annual sales in year
Suppose the quarterly sales values Ior the 7 years oI historical data are as Iollow
Year Quarter Quarter Quarter3 Quarter4 Total Yearly Sales
6 5 0 4 35
0 5 7 50
3 4 6 3 75
4 9 5 90
5 34 05
6 4 36 30 0 0
7 40 35 7 30
d Show the 4-qtr MA values Ior this time series Plot both the original time series and the MA series on
the same graph
e Compute the seasonal indexes Ior the 4-qtrs
I When does ind marine experience the largest seasonal eIIect? Does this seem reasonable? Explain
g Deseasonalize the data and use the deseasonalized time series to identiIy the trend
h &se the results oI part g to develop a quarterly Iorecast Ior next year based on trend
i &se the seasonal indexes developed in part e to adiust the Iorecasts developed in part h to account Ior
the eIIect oI season
3 &se exploratory data analysis to determine whether there is a trend / or seasonality in mobile home
shipments (MS) The data by quarter are shown in the table (cp9) On the basis oI your analysis, do you
think there is a signiIicant trend in MS? Is there seasonality? What Iorecasting methods might be
appropriate Ior MS? According to the guidelines in table

4 ome sales are oIten considered an important determinant oI the Iuture health oI the economy Thus, there
is widespread interest in being able to Iorecast total houses sold (TS) The quarterly data Ior TS are
shown in table (cp0) in thousands oI units
a Prepare a time series plot oI TS Describe what you see in this plot in terms oI trend and seasonality?
b Calculate and plot the Iirst eight autocorrelation coeIIicients Ior TS What does this autocorrelation
structure suggest abut the trend?
c De-trend the data by calculating the Iirst diIIerences
DTS
t
÷ TS
t
TS
t-

Calculate and plot the Iirst eight autocorrelation coeIIicients Ior DTS Is there a trend in DTS?

As the world`s economy becomes increasingly interdependent, various exchange rates between currencies
have become important in making business decisions For many &S businesses, in Japanese exchange rates
(In Yen/ &S dollar) is an important decision variable This exchange rate (EXRJ) is shown in the cp9 table
by month Ior a two year period
a prepare a time series plot oI this series, use the Naïve Iorecasting model to Iorecast EXRJ Ior each
month Irom year M (February) through year3 M(January) Calculate the RMSE Ior the period Irom
year M through year M
b On the basis oI a time series plot oI these data and the autocorrelation structure oI EXRJ, would you say
the data are stationary? Explain your answer (cp)

The data in the table c3p represent warehouse club and the superstore sales on a monthly basis
a Prepare a time series plot oI the data, and visually inspect that plot to determine the characteristics you
see in this series
b &se a smoothing model to develop a Iorecast oI sales Ior the next months, and explain why you
selected that model Plot the actual and Iorecast values Determine the RMSE Ior your model during the
historical period

3 The data in the table c3p3 are Ior retail sales in the book stores by quarter
a Plot these data and examine the plot Does this view oI the data suggest a particular smoothing model?
Do the data appear to be seasonal? Explain
b use a smoothing method to Iorecast the Iour quarters oI 005 Plot the actual and Iorecast values

4 Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales.
The vintage restaurant in Khandala, a resort community near Lonavala, Maval The restaurant, which is
owned and operated by Rocky Johnson, has iust completed its third year oI operation During the time
Rockey has sought to establish the reputation Ior the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that
specializes in Iresh sea Iood EIIorts by Rockey and his staII have proven successIul, and his restaurant
has become one oI the best and the Iastest growing restaurant in Khandala
Rockry has concluded that to plan Ior the growth oI the restaurant in the Iuture, he needs to develop a
system that will enable him to Iorecast Iood and beverage sales by month Ior up to one year in advance
Rockey has the Iollowing data ($ 000) on total Iood and beverage dales Ior the three years oI operation

Month Year1 Year2 Year3
Jan 4 63
Feb 35 3 55
Mar 3 47 65
Apr 7 93 05
May 4 93 0
Jun 40 49 60
Jul 45 57 66
Aug 5 6 74
Sept 0 6
Oct 30 30 4
Nov 5 67 73
Dec 06 30 35
PerIorm an analysis oI the ales data Ior the vintage restaurant Prepare a report Ior Rockey that
summarize your Iindings, Iorecasts, and recommendations Include:
a A graph oI time series
b An analysis oI the seasonality oI the data Indicate the seasonal indexes Ior each month, and comment
on the high and low seasonal sales months Do the seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss
c A Iorecast oI sales Ior January to December oI the Iourth year
d Recommendations as to when the system that you have developed should be updated to account Ior the
new sales data
e Any detailed calculations oI your analysis in the appendix oI your report

Assume that January sales Ior the Iourth year turn out to be $95,000 What was your Iorecast error? II this
is a large error, Rockey may be puzzled about the diIIerence between your Iorecast and the actual sales
value What can you do to resolve his uncertainty in the Iorecasting procedure?

The time series component which reIlects a regular, multi-year pattern oI being above and below the
trend line is
a a trend b seasonal c cyclical d irregular
Answer: c
The time series component that reIlects variability during a single year is called
a a trend b seasonal c cyclical d irregular
Answer: b
3 The time series component that reIlects variability due to natural disasters is called
a a trend b seasonal c cyclical d irregular
Answer: d
4 The time series component that reIlects gradual variability over a long time period is called
a a trend b seasonal c cyclical d irregular
Answer: a
5 The trend component is easy to identiIy by using
a MA b exponential smoothing
c regression analysis d the Delphi approach
Answer: c
6 The Iorecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no signiIicant trend, cyclical, or
seasonal eIIect is
a MA b MSE
c mean average deviation d qualitative Iorecasting methods
Answer: a
7 II data Ior a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which component may be ignored?
a trend b seasonal c cyclical d irregular
Answer: b
For the Iollowing time series, you are given the moving average Iorecast
Time Period Time Series Value Moving Average Forecast
3 ----
7 ----
3 7 ----
4 6 9
5 0
6 3
7 7 0
The MSE equals: a 0 b 6 c 4 d 64
Answer: c
9 II the estimate oI the trend component is 5, the estimate oI the seasonal component is 94°, the
estimate oI the cyclical component is 05°, and the estimate oI the irregular component is 9°, then
the multiplicative model will produce a Iorecast oI
a 53 b 53° c 530 d 53,00,53
Answer: c
0 Below you are given the Iirst Iour values oI a time series
Time Period Time Series Value

0
3 5
4 7
&sing a 4-period moving average, the Iorecasted value Ior period 5 is
a 5 b 7 c 0 d 0
Answer: c
Below you are given the Iirst two values oI a time series You are also given the Iirst two values oI the
exponential smoothing Iorecast
Exponential Smoothing
Time Period (t) Time Series Value ( Y
t
) Forecast ( F
t
)


II the smoothing constant equals 03, then the exponential smoothing Iorecast Ior time period three is
a b 9 c 0 d 40
Answer: b
The Iollowing linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 7 time periods
T
t
÷ 9 ¹ 3t The trend proiection Ior time period is:
a 64 b 93 c 976 d 64
Answer: c

Exhibit 1: Below you are given the Iirst Iive values oI a quarterly time series The multiplicative model
is appropriate and a 4-quarter MA will be used
Year Quarter Time Series Value Y
t

36
4
3 6
4 0
44
3 ReIer to Exhibit An estimate oI the trend component times the cyclical component (T

C
t
) Ior Quarter
3 oI Year , when a Iour-quarter moving average is used, is
a 4 b 5 c 6 d
Answer: b
4 ReIer to Exhibit An estimate oI the seasonal-irregular component Ior Quarter 3 oI Year is
a 064 b 565 c 5333 d 30
Answer: a
5 You are given the Iollowing inIormation on the seasonal-irregular component values Ior a quarterly
time series:
Seasonal-Irregular
Quarter omponent Values (S
t
I
t
)
3, 5, 6
06,09, 03
3 077, 07, 079
4 0, 3, 7
The SI Ior Quarter- is: a 0997 b c 4 d 3
Answer: b
6 Below you are given some values oI a time series consisting oI 6 time periods
Time Period Time Series Value
37
4
3 50
4 63



3 05
4 07
5
6 4
The estimated regression equation Ior these data is: Y
t
÷ 63 ¹ 05Y
t-
¹ 037Y
t-

The Iorecasted value Ior time period 7 is: a 533 b 095 c 665 d 695
Answer: d
7 A group oI observations measured at successive time intervals is known as
a a trend component b a time series
c a Iorecast d an additive time series model
Answer: b
A component oI the time series model that results in the multi-period above-trend and below-trend
behavior oI a time series is
a a trend component b a cyclical component
c a seasonal component d an irregular component
Answer: b
9 The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product oI its components is the
a Iorecast time series model b multiplicative time series model
c additive time series model d None oI these alternatives is correct
Answer: b
0 A method oI smoothing a time series that can be used to identiIy the combined trend/cyclical
component is
a MA b the percent oI trend
c exponential smoothing d the trend/cyclical index
Answer: a
A method that uses a weighted average oI past values Ior arriving at smoothed time series values is
known as
a a smoothing average b MA
c an exponential average d an exponential smoothing
Answer: d
In the linear trend equation, T ÷ b
0
¹ b

t, b

represents the
a trend value in period t b intercept oI the trend line
c slope oI the trend line d point in time
Answer: c
3 In the linear trend equation, T ÷ b
0
¹ b

t, b
0
represents the
a time b slope oI the trend line
c trend value in period- d the Y-intercept
Answer: d
4 A parameter oI the exponential smoothing model which provides the weight given to the most recent
time series value in the calculation oI the Iorecast value is known as the
a MSE b MAD
c smoothing constant d None oI these alternatives is correct
Answer: c
5 One measure oI the accuracy oI a Iorecasting model is
a the smoothing constant b a deseasonalized time series
c the MSE d None oI these alternatives is correct
Answer: c
6 A qualitative Iorecasting method that obtains Iorecasts through "group consensus" is known as the
a Autoregressive model b Delphi approach
c MAD d None oI these alternatives is correct
Answer: b

Exhibit 2: Consider the Iollowing time series
t 3 4
Y
i
4 7 9 0
7 ReIer to Exhibit The slope oI linear trend equation, b

, is
a 5 b 0 c 0 d 5
Answer: b
ReIer to Exhibit The intercept, b
0
, is
a 5 b 0 c 0 d 5
Answer: a
9 ReIer to Exhibit The Iorecast Ior period 5 is
a 0 b 5 c 5 d 45
Answer: c
30 ReIer to Exhibit The Iorecast Ior period 0 is
a 0 b 5 c 30 d 5
Answer: d

Exhibit 3: Consider the Iollowing time series
Year (t) Y
i

7
5
3 4
4
5
3 ReIer to Exhibit 3 The slope oI linear trend equation, b

, is
a -5 b ¹5 c 3 d -3
Answer: a
3 ReIer to Exhibit 3 The intercept, b
0
, is
a -5 b ¹5 c 3 d -3
Answer: c
33 ReIer to Exhibit 3 In which time period does the value oI Y
i
reach zero?
a 00 b 0 c 553 d 4
Answer: c
34 ReIer to Exhibit 3 The Iorecast Ior period 0 is
a 67 b -67 c 33 d 5
Answer: b

PROBLEMS
The sales records oI a company over a period oI seven years are shown below
Year (t) Sales ($ 10
6
)

6
3 7
4 9
5
6
7
a Develop a linear trend expression Ior the above time series
b Forecast sales Ior period 0
Answers: a T
t
÷ ¹ 464t b $6,640,000

Student enrollment at a university over the past six years is given below
Year (t) Enrollment (In 1.000s)
63
77
3 0
4
5
6 0
a Develop a linear trend expression Ior the above time series
b Forecast enrollment Ior year 0
Answers: a T
t
÷ 6633 ¹ 0343t b 0,063

3 The Iollowing time series shows the sales oI a clothing store over a 0-week period
Week Sales ($1.000s)
5
6
3 9
4
5 9
6 0
7 9

9 5
0
a Compute a 4-week moving average Ior the above time series
b Compute the mean square error (MSE) Ior the 4-week moving average Iorecast
c &se - ÷ 03 to compute the exponential smoothing values Ior the time series
d Forecast sales Ior week
Answers3: a 7, , 9, 9, 0, 9 b 767
c 5, 5, 53, 64, 69, 75, 6, 93, 07, 95 d $9,560

4 The Iollowing time series shows the number oI units oI a particular product sold over the past six
months
Month Units Sold (1000s)

3
3 4
4 5
5
6 0
a Compute a 3-month MA (centered) Ior the above time series
b Compute the MSE Ior the 3-month MA
c &se - ÷ 0 to compute the exponential smoothing values Ior the time series
d Forecast the sales volume Ior month 7
Answers4: a 5, 4, 7 b MSE ÷ 73/3 ÷ 433 c , , 7, 64, 6, 796
d F
7
÷ 736

5 The sales volumes oI CMM, Inc, a computer Iirm, Ior the past years is given below
Year(t) Sales($ 10
6
)

3
3 5
4 4
5 6
6
7 9
9
a Develop a linear trend expression Ior the above time series
b Forecast sales Ior period 9
Answers5: a T
t
÷ 099 ¹ 07t b $0,56,000

6 The sales records oI a maior auto manuIacturer over the past ten years are shown below
Year (t) Number of ars Sold (1000s)
95
00
3 50
4 70
5 30
6 30
7 440
460
9 500
0 500
Develop a linear trend expression and proiect the sales (the number oI cars sold) Ior time period t ÷
Answer6: T
t
÷ 36 ¹ 39t T

÷ 567

7 The Iollowing data show the quarterly sales oI Amazing Graphics, Inc Ior the years 6 through
Year Quarter Sales
6 5
5
3 4
4 6
7 0
4
3 7
4 9
5
0
3 4
4
a Compute the 4-quarter MA values Ior the above time series
b Compute the seasonal Iactors Ior the Iour quarters
c &se the seasonal Iactors developed to adiust the Iorecast Ior the eIIect oI season Ior year 6
Answers7: a Centered MAs: 94; 7; 77; 7; ; 96; ; 6
b Seasonal Factors: 6; 05; 09; 09
c Deseasonalized Sales (Year 6): 6; 76; 0; 74

John has collected the Iollowing inIormation on the amount oI tips he has collected Irom parking cars
the last seven nights
ay Tips


3 7
4
5
6 0
7
a Compute the 3-day MA Ior the time series b Compute the MSE Ior the Iorecasts
c Compute the MAD Ior the Iorecasts d Forecast John's tips Ior day 7
Answers: a 9, 9, , , 0 b 4575 c 55 d

9 The Iollowing inIormation has been collected on the sales oI greeting cards Ior the past 6 weeks
Week Sales
05
90
3 95
4 0
5 05
6 00
a Produce exponential smoothing Iorecasts Ior the series using a smoothing constant oI 0
b Compute the MSE Ior the Iorecasts produced with a smoothing constant oI 0
c What is the Iorecast oI sales Ior week 7?
d Is a smoothing constant oI 0 or 03 better Ior the sales data? Explain
Answers9: a 05, 05, 0, 006, 04, 094 b 7553
c 039 d 0 is better since the MSE is smaller

0 Consider the Iollowing annual series on the number oI people assisted by a county human resources
department
Year People (in 100s)

4
3
4 4
5
6 4
7 0
6
9 4
0
6
a Prepare 3-year MA values to be used as Iorecasts Ior periods 4 through Calculate the MSE
measure oI Iorecast accuracy Ior periods 4 through
b &se a smoothing constant oI 04 to compute exponential smoothing values to be used as Iorecasts
Ior periods through Calculate the MSE
c Compare the results in Parts a and b
Answers0: a 4667, 5333, 4667, 3333, , 3333, 3333, 6, MSE ÷ 7667
b , , 4, 45, 356, 37, 6, 37356, 344, 5505, MSE ÷ 405
c The Iorecasts produced in Part a are better than those produced in Part b

The temperature in Pune has been recorded Ior the past 7-days You are given the inIormation below
ay Temperature

0
3 4
4 3
5 0
6 79
7
a Produce exponential smoothing Iorecasts Ior the series using a smoothing constant oI 0
b Compute the MSE Ior the Iorecasts produced with a smoothing constant oI 0
c What is the Iorecasted temperature Ior day ?
d Is a smoothing constant oI 0 or 03 better Ior the temperature data? Explain
Answers: a , 6, 0, 64, , 49
b 4033 c 399
d A smoothing constant oI 0 is better because the MSE is lower when 0 is used

The yearly series below exhibits a long-term trend &se the appropriate Iorecasting technique to
produce Iorecasts Ior years and
Year Time Series Value
0
3
3 4
4 5
5 60
6 75
7
90
9 95
0 05
Answer: T ÷ 5 ¹ 9t T

÷ 66 T

÷ 5

3 The Iollowing time series gives the number oI units sold during 5 years at a boat dealership
Year Quarter Number of Units
300
40
3 40
4 90
350
300
3 0
4 30
3 40
400
3 390
4 40
4 490
450
3 440
4 50
5 540
530
3 50
4 540
a Find the Iour-quarter centered MA b Plot the series and the MAs on a graph
c Compute the seasonal-irregular component d Compute the seasonal Iactors Ior all 4-quarters
e Compute the deseasonalized time series Ior sales
I Calculate the linear trend Irom the deseasonalized sales
g Forecast the number oI units sold in each quarter oI year 6
Answers3:aŦ 278Ŧ73ţ 287Ŧ3ţ 300ţ 308Ŧ73ţ 320ţ 340ţ 366Ŧ23ţ 391Ŧ23ţ 412Ŧ3ţ 428Ŧ73ţ 441Ŧ23ţ 460ţ
478Ŧ73ţ 493ţ 313ţ 328Ŧ73 cŦ 0Ŧ8767ţ 1Ŧ0087ţ 1Ŧ1667ţ 0Ŧ9717ţ 0Ŧ873ţ 0Ŧ9412ţ 1Ŧ1193ţ
1Ŧ0224ţ 0Ŧ9433ţ 0Ŧ9363ţ 1Ŧ1103ţ 0Ŧ9783ţ 0Ŧ9191ţ 1Ŧ0303ţ 1Ŧ0483ţ 1Ŧ0024 d 3, 09954,
09056, 095 eŦ 269Ŧ498ţ 241Ŧ109ţ 263Ŧ018ţ 294Ŧ177ţ 314Ŧ409ţ 301Ŧ386ţ 309Ŧ187ţ
324Ŧ609ţ 368Ŧ308ţ 401Ŧ849ţ 430Ŧ634ţ 413Ŧ906ţ 440Ŧ172ţ 432Ŧ08ţ 483Ŧ866ţ 317Ŧ346ţ 483Ŧ088ţ 332Ŧ449ţ
374Ŧ203ţ 347Ŧ778 I T ÷ 6993 ¹ 735763t g 64656, 5954, 5574, 6390

4 Below you are given inIormation on John's income Ior the past 7 years
Year Income ($1000s)
50
6
3 7
4
5
6 9
7 05
a &se regression analysis to obtain an expression Ior the linear trend component
b Forecast John's income Ior the next 5-years
Answers4: a T ÷ 4357 ¹ 0649t b 3, , 30, 39, 4

5 You are given the Iollowing inIormation on the quarterly proIits Ior Aiay Corporation
Year Quarter Quarterly Profits Y
t

50
0
3 60
4 50
50
30
3 0
4 60
3 70
40
3 00
4 0
4 00
50
3 30
4 00
a Find the 4-quarter centered MA
b Compute the seasonal-irregular component
c Compute the seasonal Iactors Ior all Iour quarters
d Represent the deseasonalized series
Answers5: a 45, 465, 50, 5375, 575, 65, 65, 70, 765, 5, 65, 95
b 03, 06, , 046, 43, 099, 03, 04, 35, 0993, 074, 0779
c 04, 0, 3, 00
d 443, 4634, 434, 4, 443, 554, 590, 6, 6346, 7073, 766, 757,
93, 93, 03, 94

6 Below you are given inIormation on crime statistics Ior Middletown
Year Quarter Number of rimes ommitted Y
t

0
0
3 5
4 5
0
30
3 35
4 5
3 0
40
3 35
4 5
4 0
50
3 45
4 35
The seasonal Iactors Ior these data are
Quarter Seasonal Factor S
t

059
35
3 335
4 076
a Deseasonalize the series
b Obtain an estimate oI the linear trend Ior this series
c &se the seasonal and trend components to Iorecast the number oI crimes Ior each quarter oI Year 5
Answers6: a 69, 4, 7, 066, 69, , 6, 3444, 3396, 96, 6, 066, 3396,
370, 337, 4
b T ÷ 3555 ¹ 603765t c 40, 576, 57, 33

7 Below you are given the seasonal Iactors and the estimated trend equation Ior a time series These
values were computed on the basis oI 5 years oI quarterly data
Quarter Seasonal Factor S
t


09
3 0
4
T ÷ 63 - 6t Produce Iorecasts Ior all Iour quarters oI year 6 by using the seasonal and trend
components
Answer7: 56, 97, 7544, 9663

The Iollowing data show the quarterly sales oI a maior auto manuIacturer (introduced in exercise 4) Ior
the years through 0
Year Quarter Sales
60
0
3 90
4 70
9 00
0
3 60
4 30
0 0
40
3 90
4 60
a Compute the 4-quarter MA values Ior the above time series
b Compute the seasonal Iactors Ior the Iour quarters
c &se the seasonal Iactors developed in Part b to adiust the Iorecast Ior the eIIect oI season Ior year 9
Answers: a 000, 75, 05, 750, 65, 35, 375, 455
b 0935, 0975, , 0945 c 390, 53, 3636, 4339

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