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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 23RD SEPTEMBER 2018, 6 AM AST

New Brunswick
Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratins
23rd September 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between September three levels of government, President and CEO
20th and 21st, 2018 among a sample of 526 Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
adults, 18 years of age or older, living in New international public affairs.
Brunswick. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a national telephone directory compiled by a Liberal majority government in the 2015
Mainstreet Research from various commercial federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
sources and random digit dialing. The part of predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
the survey that dialed from the directory was elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
conducted as a stratified dial of the following special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
regions; Moncton, Fredericton, and the rest a member of the World Association for Public
of New Brunswick. In the case of random digit Opinion Research and meets international and
dials, respondents were asked the additional Canadian publication standards.
question of what region of the province they
resided in. CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Quito Maggi, President
Research and was not sponsored by a third quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
party.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
4.26% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:
report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NB LIBERALS LEADING AS ELECTION DRAWS TO A CLOSE

23 September 2018 (Ottawa ON) – The New Brunswick Liberals have a six point lead as New
Brunswickers head to the polls on Monday.

“Premier Gallant has a smaller lead than what he won with in 2014,” said Quito Maggi,
President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberal vote is very ineffecient and the lead
they have at this moment may not be enough for Gallant to win re-election on Monday.”

The survey polled 526 New Brunswickers, 18 years and older on September 20th and 21st.
The margin of error of this poll is +/- 4.26% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 35.2% support while the PCs led
by Blaine Higgs has 28.8%. The Greens led by David Coon currently enjoy 16% while the
People’s Alliance with Kris Austin at the helm has 14.8%. The NDP led by Jennifer McKenzie
has 3.2%.

The Liberals have leads in every region in New Brunswick, but the PCs are competitive in
both the Fredericton area and in the areas outside of Moncton and Fredericton.

The survey also asked respondents if they had a favourable or unfavourable impression of
each of the five party leader. The poll found that New Brunswickers only rated David Coon
positively.

“The fact that more New Brunswickers view four out of the five party leaders negatively is
a big sign of voter ambivalence,” continued Maggi. “Whoever wins on Monday is certainly
not being embraced warmly by the voters.”

Gallant has a -3.6% net rating, while Higgs has a -6.8% rating. Coon has a +4.6% rating.
McKenzie and Austin has a -25.5% and -9% net rating respectively.

“Since Coon is the only leader with a net positive rating, there is a chance that the Greens
outperform our numbers,” Maggi concluded.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

Undecided 7.7%
Another Party 2%

People's Alliance 14.2% Liberals 33.3%

NDP 2.3%
All Voters

Greens 15.1%

Progressive Conservatives 25.3%
Decided and Leaning
Liberals Progressive Conservatives Greens NDP People's Alliance Another Party
Another Party 2%

People's Alliance 14.8% Undecided

Liberals 35.2%
NDP 3.2%

Decided and Leaning
Greens 16%

Progressive Conservatives 28.8%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives Greens NDP People's Alliance Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

35.2%
28.8%
16%
Total

3.2%
14.8%
2%

28.9%
Fredericton area

23.1%
23.3%
1.1%
21.7%
1.9%

39.4%
20.4%
Moncton area

18.2%
6.7%
11.3%
4%

35.5%
Rest of New Brunswick

31.7%
14.2%
2.9%
14.2%
1.6%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Liberal, Brian Gallant PC, Blaine Higgs Green, David Coon NDP, Jennifer McKenzie

People's Alliance, Kris Austin Another Party
Favourability Ratings For All Party
Leaders
100

90

17.6%
80

25%

70 31.2% 30.7%
32.6%

60

27.8%

50
20.6%
20.8% 23.8%

40 36.1%

30

26.5% 33.4%
20
29.3% 27.6%

10
32.3%

0 21.7% 17.3% 21.2% 6.6% 17.9%
Brian Gallant Blaine Higgs David Coon Jennifer McKenzie Kris Austin

Very favourable Somewhat favourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Liberal, Brian Gallant 33.3% 30.1% 36.3% 26.6% 32.7% 39.6% 32.6% 28.5% 37.8% 33.2%
PC, Blaine Higgs 25.3% 30% 20.9% 21.9% 27.6% 23.9% 28.5% 20.6% 18.5% 27.8%
Green, David Coon 15.1% 16% 14.3% 23.4% 19.7% 10.7% 7.3% 23% 16.6% 13.3%
NDP, Jennifer McKenzie 2.3% 1.7% 3% 0% 2.5% 3.6% 3% 1.1% 4.5% 2.1%
People's Alliance, Kris Austin 14.2% 15.4% 13% 18.7% 11.4% 15% 11.6% 19.9% 10.8% 13.8%
Another Party 2% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 3.1% 1.8% 3.9% 1.6%
Undecided 7.7% 5.3% 10.1% 7.4% 4.4% 6.1% 14% 5% 7.9% 8.2%
Unweighted Frequency 526 307 219 89 99 162 176 118 130 278
Weighted Frequency 526 261 268 127 128 156 118 74 80 374

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Liberal, Brian Gallant 34.3% 30.7% 37.8% 26.6% 32.7% 40.5% 35.9% 28.5% 37.8% 34.6%
PC, Blaine Higgs 28% 31.4% 24.7% 25.2% 29.5% 26.1% 32% 22.7% 19.6% 30.9%
Green, David Coon 15.6% 16.6% 14.7% 23.9% 19.7% 10.7% 8.9% 23% 17.4% 13.8%
NDP, Jennifer McKenzie 3.1% 1.7% 4.5% 3% 2.5% 3.6% 3.4% 1.1% 6.4% 2.8%
People's Alliance, Kris Austin 14.4% 15.4% 13.4% 18.7% 11.4% 15.3% 11.9% 21.3% 10.8% 13.8%
Another Party 2% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 3.1% 1.8% 3.9% 1.6%
Undecided 2.6% 2.8% 2.4% 0.6% 2.5% 2.6% 4.8% 1.5% 4% 2.5%
Unweighted Frequency 526 307 219 89 99 162 176 118 130 278
Weighted Frequency 526 261 268 127 128 156 118 74 80 374

(decided and leaning voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Liberal, Brian Gallant 35.2% 31.5% 38.7% 26.7% 33.6% 41.5% 37.7% 28.9% 39.4% 35.5%
PC, Blaine Higgs 28.8% 32.2% 25.4% 25.4% 30.2% 26.8% 33.6% 23.1% 20.4% 31.7%
Green, David Coon 16% 17% 15.1% 24% 20.2% 10.9% 9.4% 23.3% 18.2% 14.2%
NDP, Jennifer McKenzie 3.2% 1.7% 4.7% 3% 2.5% 3.7% 3.5% 1.1% 6.7% 2.9%
People's Alliance, Kris Austin 14.8% 15.9% 13.8% 18.8% 11.7% 15.8% 12.6% 21.7% 11.3% 14.2%
Another Party 2% 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.3% 3.2% 1.9% 4% 1.6%
Unweighted Fr equency 510 297 213 88 96 159 167 116 125 269
Weighted Frequency 510 253 261 126 125 152 112 73 77 365
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of Brian Gallant?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Very Favourable 21.7% 18.2% 25.1% 24.1% 15.9% 23.4% 23.2% 19.7% 29.1% 20.5%
Somewhat Favourable 26.5% 24.9% 28% 19.9% 27.6% 33.8% 22.5% 20.6% 29.6% 26.9%
Somewhat Unfavourable 20.6% 18.8% 22.4% 21.4% 25.4% 15.7% 21.1% 22.7% 16.7% 21.1%
Very Unfavourable 31.2% 38% 24.6% 34.6% 31.1% 27.1% 33.2% 37% 24.6% 31.5%
Unweighted Frequency 526 307 219 89 99 162 176 118 130 278
Weighted Frequency 526 261 268 127 128 156 118 74 80 374

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of Blaine Higgs?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Very favourable 17.3% 19.1% 15.6% 16.3% 17.8% 15.2% 20.6% 19.6% 14.3% 17.5%
Somewhat favourable 29.3% 27.8% 30.9% 29% 31.5% 30.7% 25.7% 23.8% 33.4% 29.6%
Somewhat unfavourable 20.8% 20.4% 21.1% 19.5% 14.1% 24.3% 24.7% 24.3% 23.9% 19.4%
Very unfavourable 32.6% 32.8% 32.4% 35.3% 36.6% 29.9% 29% 32.3% 28.4% 33.6%
Unweighted Frequency 526 307 219 89 99 162 176 118 130 278
Weighted Frequency 526 261 268 127 128 156 118 74 80 374

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of David Coon?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Very favourable 21.2% 23.4% 19.1% 24.3% 25.2% 19.4% 15.9% 30.5% 24.7% 18.6%
Somewhat favourable 33.4% 34.7% 32% 32.7% 34.3% 28.8% 39.1% 38.1% 32.2% 32.7%
Somewhat unfavourable 27.8% 23% 32.6% 21.9% 29.4% 32.9% 25.8% 14.2% 25.7% 31%
Very unfavourable 17.6% 18.9% 16.4% 21.1% 11% 19% 19.2% 17.2% 17.3% 17.7%
Unweighted Frequency 526 307 219 89 99 162 176 118 130 278
Weighted Frequency 526 261 268 127 128 156 118 74 80 374

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of Jennifer McKenzie?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Very favourable 6.6% 4.4% 8.7% 6.8% 5.6% 7.8% 5.8% 5.8% 11.7% 5.6%
Somewhat favourable 32.3% 28.4% 36.2% 37.2% 30.3% 30.4% 31.8% 34.5% 35.8% 31.1%
Somewhat unfavourable 36.1% 34.5% 37.8% 21.5% 39.7% 42% 40.2% 24.3% 34% 38.9%
Very unfavourable 25.0% 32.7% 17.4% 34.4% 24.4% 19.8% 22.2% 35.5% 18.5% 24.3%
Unweighted Frequency 526 307 219 89 99 162 176 118 130 278
Weighted Frequency 526 261 268 127 128 156 118 74 80 374

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of Kris Austin?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Fredericton area Moncton area Rest of New Brunswick
Very favourable 17.9% 20.6% 15.1% 24.8% 12.6% 15.7% 18.9% 22.8% 20.6% 16.3%
Somewhat favourable 27.6% 22.8% 32.3% 30.3% 24.7% 31.1% 23.4% 26.5% 23.6% 28.7%
Somewhat unfavourable 23.8% 22.4% 25.3% 14.4% 27.1% 26.1% 27.5% 19% 28% 23.9%
Very unfavourable 30.7% 34.2% 27.3% 30.5% 35.6% 27.1% 30.3% 31.7% 27.8% 31.1%
Unweighted Frequency 526 307 219 89 99 162 176 118 130 278
Weighted Frequency 526 261 268 127 128 156 118 74 80 374
QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held today, Somewhat favourable
which party would you vote for? (first five Somewhat unfavourable
responses randomized) Very unfavourable
New Brunswick Liberal Party led by Brian
Gallant Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Progressive Conservative Party of New impression of David Coon?
Brunswick led by Blaine Higgs Very favourable
Green Party of New Brunswick led by David Somewhat favourable
Coon Somewhat unfavourable
New Brunswick New Democratic Party led Very unfavourable
by Jennifer McKenzie
The People’s Alliance led by Kris Austin Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Another Party impression of Jennifer McKenzie?
Undecided Very favourable
Somewhat favourable
And which party are you leaning towards? Somewhat unfavourable
(first five responses randomized - only Very unfavourable
asked of respondents who were undecided
in previous question) Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
New Brunswick Liberal Party led by Brian impression of Kris Austin?
Gallant Very favourable
Progressive Conservative Party of New Somewhat favourable
Brunswick led by Blaine Higgs Somewhat unfavourable
Green Party of New Brunswick led by David Very unfavourable
Coon
New Brunswick New Democratic Party led What is your gender?
by Jennifer McKenzie Male
The People’s Alliance led by Kris Austin Female
Another Party
Undecided What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
(order of the following five questions were 35 to 49 years of age
randomized) 50 to 64 years of age
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable 65 years of age or older
impression of Brian Gallant?
Very favourable
Somewhat favourable
Somewhat unfavourable
Very unfavourable

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
impression of Blaine Higgs?
Very favourable
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between September
20th and 21st, 2018 among a sample of 526 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in New
Brunswick. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of New Brunswick.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in New Brunswick: the
Moncton area, the Fredericton area, and the rest of New Brunswick. In the case of random
digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country
they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a
question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for
adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are
age, gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.26% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error
are higher in each subsamples.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.