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24 septembre 2018 www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 29.6 19.2 30.3 17.2 0.9 1.2 0.4 -
sièges 42 17 59 7 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 13.9% 0.1% 83.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 0.1% 0.0% 18.8% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 27.5% 24.5% 27.5% 18.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.4% 41% 18% 40% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 24.7% 28.7% 25.0% 20.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 20% 55% 22% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 61.6% 5.8% 15.4% 13.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 40.4% 15.0% 21.4% 21.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.5% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 27.3% 25.6% 32.6% 11.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 21% 12% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 20.5% 9.6% 52.2% 12.9% 1.3% 3.1% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 26.1% 2.2% 57.2% 10.2% 0.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 41.6% 0.1% 43.9% 9.4% 0.1% 4.6% 0.3% 40% 0% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 19.2% 31.9% 31.4% 13.8% 1.3% 1.9% 0.4% 1% 55% 45% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 37.5% 8.7% 39.5% 10.2% 0.1% 3.7% 0.3% 40% 0% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 6.0% 32.0% 41.0% 18.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 15% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 11.2% 29.6% 37.3% 20.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 17% 82% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 20.5% 22.0% 42.4% 12.9% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 30.3% 38.4% 11.1% 19.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 14% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 10.3% 25.8% 42.6% 19.1% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 50.1% 11.0% 17.1% 19.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 20.1% 28.4% 24.2% 24.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.5% 4% 59% 19% 18% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 26.6% 14.5% 38.8% 18.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 6% 0% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 13.1% 26.5% 43.1% 14.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 23.9% 23.1% 36.8% 14.5% 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 4% 2% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 41.6% 10.9% 25.2% 19.1% 2.6% 0.1% 0.5% 97% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 28.9% 14.8% 38.5% 14.3% 0.3% 2.8% 0.4% 10% 0% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 23.2% 29.3% 30.6% 13.7% 0.3% 2.6% 0.4% 5% 43% 52% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 39.8% 16.8% 28.6% 12.6% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 92% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 27.9% 4.3% 48.2% 10.0% 0.2% 9.0% 0.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 20.3% 30.6% 25.3% 21.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 4% 72% 20% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 66.1% 5.7% 19.9% 6.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 20.5% 10.3% 52.8% 12.1% 0.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 30.9% 16.5% 33.8% 14.6% 0.1% 3.7% 0.4% 34% 0% 65% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 76.3% 0.0% 9.2% 10.2% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 15.4% 25.6% 43.8% 13.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 13.1% 20.7% 48.4% 15.3% 0.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 27.9% 26.4% 27.7% 16.8% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 38% 26% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 25.7% 33.4% 21.3% 18.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 12% 85% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 45.2% 15.5% 26.5% 9.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 21.5% 45.2% 13.3% 18.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 43.1% 11.0% 25.4% 19.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 8.6% 11.4% 9.7% 66.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 6.4% 15.2% 61.6% 15.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 20.2% 23.8% 40.2% 14.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 9.7% 26.1% 17.0% 44.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 40.4% 14.6% 20.2% 24.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 98% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 34.4% 13.8% 33.1% 16.1% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 58% 0% 42% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 13.4% 24.1% 43.2% 17.7% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 37.2% 33.0% 9.9% 19.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 67% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 69.2% 0.0% 13.9% 10.1% 4.3% 2.0% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 21.8% 20.9% 30.6% 23.3% 0.3% 2.7% 0.4% 7% 4% 79% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 67.3% 0.8% 13.0% 16.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 34.1% 19.7% 24.2% 17.8% 1.5% 2.3% 0.4% 91% 1% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 12.9% 25.0% 42.9% 17.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 5.9% 36.5% 36.6% 18.8% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 52% 48% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 14.4% 33.4% 33.8% 17.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 51% 49% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 11.1% 37.3% 31.0% 19.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 16.3% 34.9% 28.4% 18.4% 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0% 82% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 62.3% 2.9% 15.5% 17.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 22.3% 7.2% 54.2% 12.7% 0.3% 3.0% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 51.1% 5.9% 28.8% 12.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 40.4% 15.2% 26.1% 14.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.4% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 24.0% 20.1% 41.0% 12.8% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 1.0% 24.6% 59.6% 12.8% 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 32.9% 8.4% 12.8% 43.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.5% 16% 0% 0% 84% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 35.6% 26.3% 26.3% 9.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.4% 80% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 25.6% 23.5% 33.3% 15.1% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 13% 6% 81% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 4.5% 29.1% 47.1% 16.9% 0.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 23.6% 11.7% 47.2% 13.5% 1.2% 2.5% 0.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 30.4% 12.3% 40.5% 12.3% 0.1% 4.0% 0.4% 10% 0% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 22.4% 15.1% 46.4% 11.6% 1.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 57.5% 9.4% 17.3% 11.5% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 16.4% 34.0% 26.8% 18.5% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0% 84% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 42.9% 11.7% 24.1% 15.2% 3.6% 2.1% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 25.6% 20.7% 36.9% 15.0% 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 6% 1% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 7.7% 27.3% 49.8% 12.9% 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 9.7% 53.9% 17.4% 18.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 28.9% 23.0% 18.5% 26.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% 57% 13% 2% 29% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 28.9% 23.6% 29.2% 16.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 43% 9% 47% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 17.2% 11.1% 12.5% 57.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 42.2% 20.4% 26.7% 8.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 8.8% 27.7% 48.6% 12.9% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 21.9% 19.8% 43.3% 13.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 24.4% 14.9% 40.0% 14.8% 1.3% 4.3% 0.4% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 54.2% 6.5% 16.2% 18.0% 3.0% 1.6% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 68.2% 1.9% 17.0% 7.4% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 15.7% 16.7% 47.1% 17.7% 0.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 65.8% 0.0% 12.5% 14.4% 5.8% 1.1% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 28.6% 21.4% 28.7% 19.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 46% 5% 47% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 36.8% 17.2% 25.8% 19.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 91% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 14.5% 30.4% 30.1% 22.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0% 51% 44% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 59.5% 1.2% 19.2% 19.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 30.2% 9.7% 43.5% 13.0% 0.3% 3.0% 0.4% 4% 0% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 10.5% 27.2% 42.8% 17.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 18.3% 43.0% 21.1% 16.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 12.3% 27.0% 45.3% 13.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 13.9% 29.5% 37.9% 15.0% 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0% 15% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 24.2% 21.6% 33.2% 17.6% 1.6% 1.3% 0.4% 10% 3% 87% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 17.6% 33.6% 22.5% 25.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1% 86% 4% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 39.1% 16.6% 24.1% 19.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 74.5% 0.0% 12.0% 9.1% 2.5% 1.5% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 42.1% 27.3% 15.1% 14.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 97% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 21.0% 29.7% 14.9% 31.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% 3% 47% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 1.1% 32.2% 48.3% 16.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue24.3% 26.1% 25.7% 22.8% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 23% 36% 32% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 26.9% 27.0% 23.7% 19.2% 1.5% 1.3% 0.4% 40% 42% 16% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 41.8% 16.7% 17.0% 18.8% 3.7% 1.6% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 15.8% 22.5% 41.8% 17.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 15.5% 24.9% 40.0% 17.4% 0.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0% 2% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 9.9% 31.7% 41.5% 14.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 13% 87% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 63.6% 0.0% 17.7% 13.3% 2.6% 2.4% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 20.0% 18.0% 12.5% 47.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 33.4% 22.3% 33.7% 9.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 48% 2% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 16.4% 28.2% 40.2% 12.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 24.7% 25.0% 23.2% 24.1% 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 30% 34% 18% 19% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 40.9% 17.4% 27.8% 12.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 94% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 21.0% 26.9% 32.6% 17.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 3% 22% 75% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 24.4% 19.9% 18.7% 33.8% 0.3% 2.5% 0.4% 10% 2% 1% 87% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 11.8% 29.4% 43.6% 13.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 26.0% 22.3% 31.9% 17.4% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 19% 5% 75% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 29.4% 27.4% 25.4% 16.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 49% 32% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 23.8% 26.4% 33.9% 14.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 6% 16% 78% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 31.3% 12.2% 38.8% 14.1% 0.3% 3.0% 0.4% 16% 0% 84% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 49.1% 10.9% 24.9% 11.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 9.9% 35.5% 38.8% 14.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 37% 63% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 39.9% 18.1% 18.2% 18.4% 3.5% 1.5% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 52.0% 6.8% 14.2% 24.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 42.4% 18.2% 28.3% 8.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 95% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 63.8% 0.0% 16.0% 14.2% 4.5% 1.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges


Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)