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25 septembre 2018 www.silatendancesemaintient.

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PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 30.2 19.7 30.5 16.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 -
sièges 45 20 54 6 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 18.0% 0.1% 79.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 0.3% 0.0% 15.4% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 28.7% 25.5% 28.1% 17.6% 0.1% 43% 20% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 25.4% 29.4% 25.3% 19.3% 0.1% 0.4% 22% 56% 21% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 62.1% 6.2% 15.5% 12.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 41.3% 15.6% 21.8% 19.1% 1.7% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 28.1% 26.2% 32.9% 10.4% 2.0% 0.4% 22% 13% 64% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 21.1% 10.0% 52.6% 12.1% 1.4% 2.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 26.9% 2.6% 58.0% 9.6% 2.9% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 42.6% 0.4% 44.4% 8.8% 0.2% 3.7% 42% 0% 58% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 20.0% 33.0% 32.1% 12.8% 1.6% 0.5% 1% 56% 44% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 38.4% 9.1% 40.1% 9.6% 2.8% 42% 0% 58% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 6.6% 32.9% 41.4% 17.1% 2.1% 0% 15% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 11.9% 30.3% 37.6% 19.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0% 19% 81% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 21.3% 22.6% 42.9% 11.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 31.0% 39.5% 11.3% 18.2% 0.1% 14% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 10.8% 26.3% 42.8% 18.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 51.0% 11.6% 17.3% 17.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 20.8% 29.5% 24.7% 22.8% 2.2% 5% 66% 19% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 27.5% 15.1% 39.4% 17.4% 0.7% 7% 0% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 13.7% 27.0% 43.2% 12.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 24.6% 23.7% 37.1% 13.7% 0.2% 0.7% 4% 3% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 43.6% 11.8% 26.1% 18.4% 0.1% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 29.3% 15.2% 38.6% 14.7% 2.2% 10% 0% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 23.9% 30.2% 31.1% 14.3% 0.4% 6% 44% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 40.4% 17.2% 28.8% 11.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 92% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 28.0% 4.5% 48.0% 10.3% 0.4% 8.3% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 21.0% 31.4% 25.6% 20.2% 1.4% 0.4% 4% 75% 19% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 66.4% 6.1% 19.9% 5.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 21.1% 10.7% 53.4% 11.6% 2.9% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 31.9% 17.1% 34.3% 14.0% 2.7% 37% 0% 63% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 77.1% 0.0% 9.4% 9.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 16.1% 26.2% 44.1% 12.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 13.8% 21.2% 48.9% 14.5% 1.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 28.7% 27.1% 28.0% 15.8% 0.4% 40% 27% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 26.4% 34.2% 21.6% 17.5% 0.4% 13% 84% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 45.6% 15.8% 26.5% 8.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 22.3% 46.6% 13.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 43.9% 11.6% 25.5% 18.4% 0.5% 0.1% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 9.3% 12.2% 10.1% 65.6% 2.8% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 7.0% 15.7% 62.0% 14.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 20.9% 24.4% 40.5% 13.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 10.5% 27.5% 17.6% 43.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 4% 0% 96% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 40.9% 15.1% 20.2% 22.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 35.0% 14.2% 33.2% 14.9% 0.7% 1.4% 0.5% 59% 0% 41% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 13.9% 24.6% 43.4% 16.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 38.0% 34.0% 10.1% 17.9% 66% 34% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 70.1% 0.0% 14.2% 8.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 24.1% 19.6% 27.4% 25.8% 0.5% 2.1% 0.5% 21% 3% 49% 27% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 68.6% 1.3% 13.3% 14.7% 1.8% 0.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 34.2% 19.8% 24.1% 18.2% 1.6% 1.7% 0.4% 92% 1% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 13.3% 25.5% 43.0% 16.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 6.6% 37.6% 37.1% 17.8% 0.8% 0% 54% 46% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 15.1% 34.2% 34.0% 16.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0% 52% 47% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 11.7% 38.0% 31.2% 17.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 82% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 17.0% 35.7% 28.6% 17.4% 1.3% 0% 82% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 64.5% 3.6% 16.1% 15.6% 0.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 22.6% 7.5% 54.1% 13.1% 0.4% 2.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 51.7% 6.3% 29.0% 11.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 41.0% 15.6% 26.4% 13.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 24.6% 20.5% 41.2% 11.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 1.5% 25.2% 60.0% 11.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 33.7% 9.0% 13.0% 41.1% 2.2% 0.3% 0.6% 23% 0% 0% 77% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 36.0% 26.7% 26.3% 8.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.5% 81% 10% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 26.4% 24.1% 33.7% 14.3% 1.5% 15% 6% 79% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 5.2% 29.7% 47.3% 15.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 24.2% 12.1% 47.6% 12.9% 1.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 31.3% 12.8% 41.0% 11.7% 0.2% 2.9% 11% 0% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 22.6% 15.3% 46.2% 11.9% 1.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 58.4% 9.9% 17.6% 10.4% 3.2% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 17.0% 34.9% 27.1% 17.5% 3.0% 0.5% 0% 85% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 43.5% 12.1% 24.2% 13.8% 4.2% 1.6% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 26.3% 21.2% 37.3% 14.2% 0.2% 0.8% 7% 1% 92% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 8.4% 27.9% 50.1% 11.8% 0.8% 1.1% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 10.3% 55.0% 17.5% 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 29.7% 23.8% 18.7% 25.1% 2.0% 0.6% 65% 16% 2% 18% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 29.7% 24.3% 29.6% 15.9% 0.4% 45% 10% 45% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 18.0% 11.8% 12.8% 55.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 43.0% 20.9% 26.9% 7.5% 1.7% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 9.4% 28.3% 48.8% 11.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 22.7% 20.4% 44.1% 12.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 24.8% 15.2% 40.0% 15.1% 1.4% 3.6% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 54.7% 6.9% 16.4% 16.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 68.8% 2.3% 17.2% 6.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 16.3% 17.1% 47.5% 17.0% 0.2% 1.9% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 66.3% 0.3% 12.6% 13.2% 6.3% 0.7% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 29.3% 21.9% 29.1% 18.7% 0.4% 0.6% 49% 5% 45% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 37.6% 17.9% 25.9% 18.1% 0.4% 0.1% 92% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 15.5% 32.2% 31.3% 21.0% 0% 55% 43% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 59.8% 1.8% 19.2% 18.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 30.6% 10.0% 43.6% 13.4% 2.3% 4% 0% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 11.3% 28.1% 43.3% 16.9% 0.4% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 18.9% 44.0% 21.3% 15.1% 0.8% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 12.9% 27.6% 45.6% 12.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 14.5% 30.2% 38.2% 14.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0% 16% 84% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 24.9% 22.2% 33.6% 16.6% 1.7% 1.0% 10% 4% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 18.3% 34.6% 22.7% 24.3% 0.1% 1% 90% 4% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 40.0% 17.3% 24.4% 18.2% 0.1% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 75.3% 0.0% 12.2% 7.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 43.0% 28.0% 15.3% 13.3% 0.4% 97% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 21.6% 30.5% 15.1% 29.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.6% 4% 58% 0% 38% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 1.7% 33.2% 48.8% 15.8% 0.5% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue25.1% 26.8% 25.9% 21.8% 0.1% 0.4% 24% 40% 30% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 27.8% 28.0% 24.2% 18.4% 1.6% 40% 43% 15% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 42.3% 17.0% 17.1% 17.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 16.6% 23.4% 42.7% 16.9% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 16.0% 25.3% 40.1% 16.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 10.5% 32.2% 41.4% 13.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 15% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 64.4% 0.0% 18.0% 12.1% 3.1% 2.0% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 20.8% 18.8% 12.9% 45.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 33.9% 22.6% 33.6% 8.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 50% 2% 48% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 17.0% 28.9% 40.5% 11.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 25.5% 25.8% 23.6% 23.3% 1.3% 0.5% 32% 37% 18% 13% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 41.5% 17.8% 28.0% 10.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 95% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 21.5% 27.5% 32.7% 16.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 3% 24% 73% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 25.0% 20.4% 19.0% 34.7% 0.5% 0.5% 10% 2% 1% 87% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 12.5% 30.1% 43.8% 12.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 26.7% 22.8% 32.2% 16.7% 0.2% 1.4% 21% 6% 73% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 30.0% 27.9% 25.5% 15.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 51% 32% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 24.5% 27.1% 34.2% 13.2% 0.5% 0.5% 7% 17% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 31.6% 12.4% 38.7% 14.4% 0.4% 2.4% 18% 0% 82% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 49.7% 11.3% 25.1% 10.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 10.5% 36.1% 38.8% 12.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 39% 61% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 40.4% 18.4% 18.4% 17.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 53.9% 7.5% 14.8% 23.0% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 42.8% 18.6% 28.3% 7.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 64.5% 0.0% 16.2% 13.0% 5.0% 0.7% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges
Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)