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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL SEPTEMBER 26th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto
• Mayoral Voting Intentions
• Issue Importance

26th September 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey that was conducted between three levels of government, President and CEO
September 24th and 25th among a sample Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
of 966 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Toronto. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from random was the only polling firm to correctly predict
digit dialing. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
Research and was not sponsored by a third elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
party. special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Opinion Research and meets international and
3.15% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Canadian publication standards.

(full methodology appears at the end of this CONTACT INFORMATION
report) In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TORY STILL LEADING, TRANSIT IS NOW FRONT OF MINDS FOR
TORONTONIANS

26 September 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Incumbent John Tory is now approaching
50% among all voters in a new Mainstreet Research poll, but main challenger
Jennifer Keesmaat has moved up as well.

The survey was conducted between September 24th and 25th and interviewed
966 Toronto residents, aged 18 years and older. The poll has a margin of error
of +/- 3.15% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“More and more Torontonians are making up their mind as the campaign
progresses so it is no surprise to see both main contenders trending upwards,”
said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided voters (excluding undecided voters), Tory has 63.7% support,
while Keesmaat has 30.7%. Faith Goldy drops to 1.5%, while Global News
debate participants Sarah Climenhaga and Saron Gebresellassi have 1.3% and
1.1% respectively.

As with previous Mainstreet polling, Tory maintains leads in every region in
Toronto, but Kessmaat does better in the downtown core with 36.3%. Also,
Tory has more support among men compared to women, while Keesmaat is
more competitive among women.

The survey also found that transit has replaced housing affordability as the top
issue in this municipal campaign. 19.5% of Torontonians said that transit is the
most important issue for them, while housing affordability is the second most
important issue with 17.5%. Crime and safety comes in third with 15.6%.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean
toward?

27.4%

48.4%
All Voters
1%
1.1%
0.8%
1%

ll Voters
Decided Voters 20.3%

1.5%
1.6%
John Tory Jennifer Keesmat
1.1% Sarah Climenhaga Saron Gebresellassi Faith Goldy
27.4% 1.4%
Another Candidate Undecided

30.7% 48.4%
All Voters
1%
1.1% Decided Voters
0.8%
1%

63.7%

20.3%

John Tory Jennifer Keesmat Sarah Climenhaga Saron Gebresellassi Faith Goldy

John Tory Jennifer Keesmat Sarah Climenhaga
Another Candidate UndecidedSaron Gebresellassi Faith Goldy
And what would you say is the top priority,
ortance
in other words, what issue are you most
concerned about?

3.7%
11.5%

19.5%
8.8%

Issue Importance

Issue Importance5.3%
13.4%
10.7%

10.5% 15.6%
10.3%
8.5%

3.1% 2.8% Issue Importance

16%
9.8%11.6%
17.5%

21.3%

ntability and Transparency City services
Accountability and Transparency
for seniors and children
City services for seniors and children Crime and Safety
Crime an
Housing Affordability Jobs and Economic Developmemt Property Taxes Traffic and Congestion

ordability Jobs and Economic Developmemt
Transit Another Issue Property Taxes Traffic a

Transit Another Issue
Breakouts
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean toward?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 48.4% 53.1% 44.2% 38.1% 38.5% 57.8% 64.4% 46% 42.8% 49% 54.4%
Jennifer Keesmat 20.3% 16.6% 23.6% 26.5% 18.2% 21.3% 12.2% 28.7% 16.4% 15.7% 16.8%
Sarah Climenhaga 1% 2% - 1.6% 0.6% - 1.6% 2.4% 1.2% - -
Saron Gebresellassi 0.8% 1.6% - - 2.6% - 0.8% 0.5% - 2% -
Faith Goldy 1.1% 1.2% 1% - 2.2% 1.1% 1.6% - 4% 1% 1.2%
Another Candidate 1% - 1.9% - 3.2% - 1.3% 1.5% - 1.7% -
Undecided 27.4% 25.3% 29.2% 33.8% 34.8% 19.7% 18.3% 20.9% 35.6% 30.6% 27.6%
Unweighted Frequency 996 576 420 219 285 288 204 441 174 207 174
Weighted Frequency 996 471 525 303 243 253 198 327 136 305 228

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 63.7% 69.1% 58.5% 56.7% 57.4% 71.3% 69.2% 52.9% 65.5% 69.3% 72.9%
Jennifer Keesmat 30.7% 24.1% 37% 40.8% 29.2% 27.3% 23.7% 41.3% 26.3% 23.5% 25.4%
Sarah Climenhaga 1.4% 2.8% - 2.5% 1% - 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% - -
Saron Gebresellassi 1.1% 2.2% - - 4% - 1% 0.6% - 3% -
Faith Goldy 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% - 3.5% 1.4% 2.2% - 6.2% 1.6% 1.7%
Another Candidate 1.5% - 2.9% - 5.1% - 1.8% 2.1% 0% 2.6% -
Unweighted Frequency 714 429 285 144 189 222 159 348 108 141 117
Weighted Frequency 714 340 353 193 151 196 152 250 85 203 156

And what would you say is the top priority, in other words, what issue
are you most concerned about?
18- 35- 50- Downtown North
Total Male Female 65+ Etobicoke Scarborough
34 49 64 Toronto York
Accountability and Transparency 11.5% 14.5% 8.9% 7% 12.1% 12% 17.1% 8.9% 12.1% 11.6% 14.8%
City services for seniors and
8.8% 6.1% 11.1% 4.2% 5.6% 14.2% 12.6% 5.8% 10.6% 9.3% 11.2%
children
Crime and Safety 15.6% 15.5% 15.6% 12.5% 14.6% 15.8% 21.1% 13.3% 27.6% 15.8% 11.3%
Housing Affordability 17.5% 17.1% 17.9% 16.6% 18.8% 20.4% 13.6% 22.5% 12.2% 11.7% 21.3%
Jobs and Economic Developmemt 9.8% 11.2% 8.5% 14.2% 9.4% 8.2% 5.5% 7.6% 7.6% 8.3% 16.3%
Property Taxes 3.1% 3.5% 2.8% 2.2% 3.3% 2.6% 5.1% 3.3% 2% 3.2% 3.4%
Traffic and Congestion 10.5% 7.6% 13% 10.2% 8.7% 10.6% 12.7% 16% 19.4% 5.9% 3.2%
Transit 19.5% 21% 18.2% 30.7% 22.6% 11.1% 9.5% 16.6% 8.6% 31.3% 14.5%
Another Issue 3.7% 3.5% 4% 2.3% 4.8% 5.2% 2.8% 6% - 2.8% 4%
Unweighted Frequency 966 567 399 216 276 282 192 432 171 201 162
Weighted Frequency 966 457 509 294 235 245 192 317 132 296 221
QUESTIONNAIRE
On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in your municipal
election. Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean
toward?
(first five responses randomized)
John Tory
Jennifer Keesmaat
Sarah Climenhaga
Saron Gebresellassi
Faith Goldy
Another Candidate
Undecided

What issue is the most important for you in this upcoming municipal
election?
Accountability & Transparency
City services for seniors & children
Crime and Safety
Housing Affordability
Jobs & Economic Development
Property Taxes
Traffic & Congestion
Transit
Another issue

What is your gender?
Male
Female

What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between September
24th, 2018 and September 25th, 2018, among a sample of 966 adults, 18 years of age or older,
living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents
were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of Toronto.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing. Respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.15% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.