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Third Quarter 2018


Building Industry News
2018: Issue 9

Four indicators provide insight where US housing market headed


demand," the mortgage giant wrote. That creates a drag on the job market
Here's what's happening in the as well, since it makes it more difficult
housing market now. to pick up and move to a new city for
1. New home construction better employment opportunities.
New home construction surged Americans are already relocating far
following the recession, but has less than they used to.
moderated in recent months. That has
left many markets with a persistent lack 4. Foreclosures
of supply. That's not just true in the for- Foreclosures plagued the housing
sale market — the rental vacancy rate market during the financial crisis as
is also nearly as low as it's been since borrowers struggled with loans they
the early 1990s. couldn't afford and homes prices
plunged. These days, borrowers are in
2. Housing prices much better shape, but there are signs
The slow growth of new housing that foreclosures are on the rise again.
stock has driven up home prices The housing analytics firm Attom
quickly, especially in hot markets like Data Solutions found that foreclosure
San Francisco and Miami. (Other starts are increasing again for the first
markets, like Detroit, still haven't time since 2015. The trend is
regained the value lost during the Great particularly visible in hurricane-hit cities
Recession, according to data collected like Houston, but also increasingly
by the Federal Housing Finance expensive places like Los Angeles.
Agency.) "We're seeing enough in these
Although the closely-watched Case- bellwether markets that I think it's an
Shiller Index showed on Tuesday that inflection point," says Daren Blomquist,
home price growth slowed slightly in senior vice president for
June, the 20-city composite measure communications at Attom.
topped its pre-recession high at the But as with the rest of the housing
A slowdown in new construction and check by raising interest rates, making beginning of 2018. market, that turn in the numbers likely
a short supply of existing homes for mortgages more expensive. 3. Existing home sales Low inventory isn't a sign of impending collapse. The
sale have pushed housing prices so Meanwhile, a crackdown on and high prices have slowed down the loans having the most trouble are those
high that would-be buyers are either immigration as well as tariffs on entire housing market, which is mostly that the Federal Housing Administration
finding themselves in bidding wars or imported lumber have made it more made up of previously owned homes. insured in 2014, when the agency was
sitting on the sidelines. difficult and expensive for builders to Existing-home sales fell for the fourth backing off on the very tight standards
"We're hearing things from our real obtain the labor and materials they straight month in July to their lowest it had imposed during the great
estate agents that we haven't heard in need to construct homes. That's level in over two years, the National recession.
three years about homebuyers stepping especially true in hot urban markets, Association of Realtors reported last "In '14, what you begin to see is a
back from high prices," said Redfin where land is expensive and zoning week. loosening of the underwriting, but not
CEO Glenn Kelman on the real estate can be restrictive, according to the "Additional inventory will help contain an irresponsible loosening," says David
firm's second quarter earnings call this National Association of Home Builders. rapid home price growth and open up Dworkin, a former Treasury Department
month. Freddie Mac forecast on Monday that the market to prospective homebuyers and Fannie Mae official, who is now
What's eating the housing market, in the housing market will stay slow for who are consequently — and president of the National Housing
the midst of what otherwise looks like the rest of the year. But it doesn't see increasingly — being priced out," Conference. "I think we're seeing a
upbeat growth? In part, it's a victim of any real trouble on the horizon. "The National Association of Realtors Chief return to a more normal market."
the economy's success: The Federal healthy economy and robust labor Economist Lawrence Yun wrote on CNNMoney (New York) First published August 28, 2018

Reserve is seeking to keep inflation in market should support homebuyer Monday.

429
PERMIT NO.
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2 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9
2018 Issue 9 Builders Outlook 3
President’s

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PRINT & INTERNET

Message
PUBLISHING

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Social Media & WeBSiTe
conTenT ManageMenT

El Paso continues to be

*
e-Mail neWSleTTeRS

family friendly
Edmundo Dena
President
el Paso association of Builders

coMMUnicaTion
STRaTegY

i have a hard time understanding Paso is my home and i’m proud to Honestly, i think all of us has said the
how someone is not a member of the be here. i think that all of us who same thing in the past. But as we
association if they are even remotely live and work here are blessed with can see by the results of the drive ediToRial SeRViceS
involved in construction or supply to the feeling of security and a beautiful we should ask, we should invite
the industry. i can’t ever imagine not multi-culture population. The el Paso others to join us.
being a member as many of you feel association of Builders reflects our if we want to continue to have el
as well. i was so glad to hear that population and i think we are way Paso as a great place to live, if we
we got a new member from outside ahead of other local and state want to have our association grow
the county, yes a new builder associations in that respect. i had a and prosper, then we must ensure
member from Presidio, Texas. We conversation with Ray and he was that we continue to be forward
want to welcome Spanish oaks telling me about how our national thinking and relevant. our el Paso
custom Homes, and owner Juan association is trying to figure out how association of Builders under the
Saenz to the association. it’s to become more diverse in slogan Real Texas Builders places
interesting that Juan turned to us via membership, the same as is the us in a unifying position to showcase
the Texas association of Builders focus for the Texas association of our members. Builder or associate
who in turn told him about us, his Builders. and it boils down to how there are other associations in the
closest local. Turns out Juan was we value our local specialists and country that wish they were more like
looking for an association to join that make them feel welcome to join us. us. Remember this when you tell the
would help him be better. as in be during the recent membership drive story of why you’re a member. and
better informed, educated, and we had heard some of our more remember that no matter what, there
connected. He turned to the “seasoned” members surprise are builders and associates out there
association because he wants to be themselves by recruiting new waiting to join. ask them. Get Creative. Make it Snappy.
a professional. members. i heard that over and 915•820•2800
So, allow me to get to my point. el over, “i didn’t think they would join.” www.snappypublishing.com
4
Executive’s
Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9

Message

Ray Adauto,

Plenty of work to do at the association


Executive
Vice President
EPAB

There a lot of things going Third we have upcoming board I would like to remind all our
through my mind right now, most of nominations and elections. Always members of the new slogan you
them work related. We are busy interesting more so this year as we are hearing and seeing. Real
and sometimes busier than we look to our leadership for 2019 and Texas Builders™ is our new
think we can handle. First and the Sergio Cuartas administration. trademark, using a unifying
foremost, I want to thank the Sergio and I are into deep consumer friendly slogan to
members who entered our first discussions and planning, so be identify us and separate us from
Real Texas Builder Awards event. ready for some exciting things. non-members. Real Texas
Originally, we had looked at doing The installation is on for Friday Builders decals on your doors or
the awards at our installation, but December 7 at the Marriott El vehicles will tell the world that you
frankly that was a poor idea. We Paso (Airport). More information are a part of the industry
will now be doing the awards in on that soon. association and care about new
mid-January, place and time to be Meanwhile we will be traveling to home construction. Our
announced. Austin in November for TAB Winter advertising on radio and billboards
Secondly, we are having our Fall meetings and preparing for next is telling the consumer they should
golf tournament presented by years IBS and Rally Day events. be doing business with you rather
Haskins Electric Company once Another important item is that than some non-member. We think
again. This is the first time we will our Association health plan is the message is clear and we know
use Butterfield Trail GC for the Fall going through some changes as it’s uniting us under one banner.
event after having a great Spring well. Our members will find a new Please, use the decal or logo in
tournament there. We look provider and perhaps some your advertising, marketing, web
forward to a successful outing on exciting news on other great page or electronic media. Tell the
October 25. We’ll have pictures in changes for the betterment of our world you’re a member. Afterall
the next issue. members. why wouldn’t you.
National
2018 Issue 9 Builders Outlook 5

Builder News

Construction
Labor Market
With a dearth of women in the
construction industry, NAHB
members call for increased
recruiting efforts to help
address labor shortage

n According to labor force


statistics from the Current
Population Survey and analyzed by
the National Association of Home
Builders (NAHB), the share of
women in the construction industry
is currently at 9 percent, although
women make up almost half—47
percent—of the total working
population. While female
construction employment slowly
picked up to around 970,000 in
2017 after the Great Recession, it
is still below the pre-recession level
of 1.1 million in 2007.
In recognition of Professional
Women in Building (PWB) Week
from Sept. 17 – 21, members of
NAHB are calling for an increase in
recruiting efforts to attract women
to the home building industry. As
the residential construction industry
continues to grapple with a severe
labor shortage, PWB members say
bringing additional women into the
construction labor force represents
a potential opportunity for the
future.
“Right now more than ever is the
time for our industry to not only
increase our recruitment efforts, but
to also change the way we talk
about careers in home building to
show women this industry has so
much to offer them,” said Judy
Dinelle, CAPS, CGP, chair of the
NAHB PWB Council and building
ambassador of 84 Lumber in
Asheville, N.C., serving as the
company’s liaison to home building
associations. “We need to help the
public, guidance counselors and
parents understand that the
industry provides a high income,
significant work values, job security
and a sense of accomplishment.”
One of the ways PWB members
hope to accomplish introducing
more females to the industry is to
create more pre-apprenticeship
programs throughout the country
and develop leadership paths
within their organizations.
“We’ve seen examples of pre-
apprenticeship programs that are
really quite successful, so we need
to replicate those programs and
implement them into more
communities across the country,”
said Dinelle. “We should all
promote and offer to help the
programs and organizations that
provide training for women. It’s our
responsibility to put our words into
action.”
6 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9

Mortgage Chinese tariffs to make home renovation more expensive


& Banking
CNBC Commerce Department just announced Goran Zucik, sales manager at Rockville, step toward restoring a level playing field
the results of an investigation into illegal Maryland-based Stone & Tile World. within our industry, fulfilling the obvious
"dumping" of Chinese quartz into the U.S., "China was producing them by hand and axiom: there is no such thing as free trade
• Home renovation demand is finding, "that exporters received no one can copy the way they were without fair trade."
soaring, and so are the costs to countervailable subsidies ranging from making some colors. Some of my cabinet Chinese tile was generally cheaper than
do it, thanks to a new round of 34.38 to 178.45 percent," according to its companies want to use these colors in U.S.-made tile, so the tariffs will level the
release. their remodeled showroom, but I have to playing field for U.S. tile makers, even if it
tariffs on goods imported from As a result it will impose import duties tell them that these will not be available." increases costs for consumers.
China. on the quartz in addition to tariffs. In 2017, The move, however, will benefit U.S. "There have been three or four
U.S. imports of certain quartz surface quartz-maker Cambria, which filed the manufacturers of porcelain tile right in
products from China were valued at an complaint with the Commerce Tennessee over the past two years that
• The latest round hits about $10 estimated $460 million, according to the Department. have popped up, so that business will
billion worth of Chinese Commerce Department. "This determination is the result of the increase, and I think it will help the
products exclusive to agency's thorough investigation and American market for sure," added
homebuilding and remodeling, Price jumps for quartz
That is already increasing quartz prices,
confirms what the petition alleged—that
China has unfairly subsidized quartz
Benson.

according to the National just in anticipation of the new duties. surface products to highjack the U.S. —Edited by Diane Olick,

Association of Home Builders.


CNBC producer Lisa Rizzolo contributed to this report.
"I know for fact that one of my market and as a result these unfairly
distributors stopped ordering three quartz traded imports have flooded the U.S.
colors because prices are jumping high market," said Marty Davis, president and
• To start, it is a 10 percent tariff, enough so it's not worth it anymore," said CEO of Cambria. "This is a critical first
but then could rise to 25
percent by the end of the year.
That would be equivalent to a
$2.5 billion tax increase on the
industry.
Home renovation demand is soaring,
and so are the costs to do it, thanks to a
new round of tariffs on goods imported
from China.
The latest round hits about $10 billion
worth of Chinese products exclusive to
homebuilding and remodeling, according
to the National Association of Home
Builders. The tariff starts at 10 percent,
but could rise to 25 percent by the end of
the year. That would be equivalent to a
$2.5 billion tax increase on the industry.
Contractor Justin Sullivan manages
home renovation projects in the
Washington, D.C., area and says costs
are going up so much so fast that he is
doing something he has never done in his
more than a decade in the remodeling
business.
"Clients and contractors are having to
set contracts with escalation clauses for
projects that are being scheduled for six
months from now, largely because we're
not sure how far prices are going to go
north," he said.
Sullivan said it is a quick education for
new clients, who were already fighting to
get projects scheduled, given the high
demand and labor shortage. Higher home
values have given homeowners more
ready cash and more incentive to improve
their investment. Now his clients have one
more worry.
"It makes them want to do the project
more quickly, trying to get it done. Then
it's looking at ways to save money that
will bring down the costs so the overall
budget doesn't increase," he said. "It puts
a little bit more pressure on everyone to
try and be as diligent about the costs as
possible."
Tariffs have already increased the costs
of Canadian lumber as well as steel and
aluminum imports. The new round adds
everything from wall and floorboard to
light fixtures, cabinets, heating and
cooling equipment, and the tile for
bathrooms and backsplashes.
David Benson is vice president of sales
at Maryland-based Architectural
Ceramics. He says his prices will go up,
especially for mosaic, glass and patterned
tile, most of which is not made in the
United States.
"It would impact the cost on ceramic
and natural stone and glass materials,
and it would increase the cost at least 15
to 20 percent of our import duties on
those items so costs will go up for sure,"
said Benson.
The latest tariffs will also impact

nahb.org/MA
materials for countertops, like granite,
marble and especially quartz. The U.S.
2018 Issue 9 Builders Outlook 7
Economic
Forescast

Why Healthcare Is So Expensive


Elliot Eisenberg
Economic & Policy
Blog

While there are many reasons why unlucky bunch is patients with private drive the high-cost providers out of Once there is no competition, be it
healthcare spending is growing much insurance and those who pay cash. business and the poor would not be in telecommunications, airlines,
faster than the economy — including Of course, giving free or subsidized served. Thus, the introduction of trucking, banking, or stock trading,
an aging population and the rising healthcare to some by overcharging cross-subsidies must be accompanied inefficiencies multiply and prices rise.
cost of prescription drugs — one paying customers is essentially by a prohibition on competition. One Returning to healthcare, because of
problem that gets virtually no attention imposing a tax on those who can pay of the ways we see this lack of this lack of any meaningful
and is a primary cost driver is cross- in order to subsidize those who can’t competition manifesting itself is competition, consumers know the cost
subsidies. The reason cross- or won’t. But — and this is the key — insurance plans such as bronze, of nothing they consume and care
subsidies exist in the first place is this hidden tax does not appear silver, and gold all offering the same even less. What kind of market
because lawmakers want to subsidize anywhere. As such, it is politically services. operates well when prices are well
healthcare costs for the poor, the sick, costless, and that’s why it is so And once there is no competition, hidden? If there were real price
and other potential voters — which is appealing to politicians. If that were there is no incentive for any non- competition, consumers would be
well meaning — but lawmakers do not all, it would not be so bad. But it gets competitive service providers to bombarded with ads boasting of better
want to raise taxes to pay for these worse, much worse. innovate for better care or lower costs, prices and outcomes and we would all
programs. So they hide the taxes Cross-subsidies are much more and that, in turn, drives up costs for be winners.
they should impose in the form of inefficient than raising taxes and everyone. If you are old enough, you Increasing taxes and spending,
cross-subsidies. spending the revenue on, in this case, remember that prior to the 1980s, while hardly ideal, sure beats cross-
Let me explain. If someone with no healthcare. Here’s why. In an ideal local phone calls were cheap, often subsidies and the attendant
money walks into an emergency room market, if a hospital or doctor is going free. That was because long distance monopolies that drive up costs,
and needs care, they get care. But to to overcharge some patients, those calls were very expensive; there was prevent firm entry, and eliminate
recover the cost of services provided patients will have an incentive to shop cross-subsidy from long distance calls innovation. Until cross-subsidies are
to the indigent, hospitals must around for a cheaper insurance plan. to local calls. Of course, firms wanted eliminated, US healthcare costs will
overcharge everybody else. Making That insurance plan could be cheaper to compete to provide overpriced long- continue to spiral out of control and
matters worse, Medicare and if it sends patients to hospitals and distance calls, but the system would we will be able to do nothing more
Medicaid do not pay the full amount of doctors who don’t overcharge. But if have unraveled. So the federal than wish for a competitive, innovative
their service cost. As a result, enough such plans were to exist, the government gave AT&T a monopoly and efficient healthcare market.
hospitals must substantially entire system would fail because and, in that way, kept competitors out
overcharge everybody else, and that these new low-cost providers would and prices up.

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rrivera@bukaty.com www.bukatyfs.com
2018 Issue 9
BUILDERS OUTLOOK • EPAB ON THE SCENE

Seminar focuses on
residential foundations
Any time you build a home you repair or failure can cost tens of
need to make sure your foundation is thousands of dollars,” he said.
solid. It is after all the backbone of The attendees were given the
the entire building. Without a good opportunity to ask questions to the
foundation the house can fail. That experts.
was the subject of a recent seminar Justin M. Bryant, VP of Builder
presented by Centricity, a third-party Services and Sales for Perma Pier,
home warranty company. The name has been providing foundation repair
Centricity may be new to some solutions to builders, homeowners,
readers since the company was and engineers alike for 20 years
formed from Bankers Warranty Group across the state. He advises warranty
and Bonded Builders Warranty companies, builders, and engineers
Group. on best practices and lifetime repair
Brent Morgan, regional solutions. “El Paso is a little more
representative for Centricity was the stable soils wise than the clay we find
point man for the seminar. “We had in Dallas or San Antonio,” he said.
an opportunity to bring some experts “This seminar shows what things we
in to the El Paso market and educate see wrong and how a builder can
builders and engineers on help themselves by following simple
foundations and what can happen,” rules of engineering,” Justin said.
he told the Outlook. “We feel that the Justin was joined by Centricity’s
more we educate the better the Morgan, Stephen Hooker, Liz Ahner
results, especially when a foundation and Brant Roeming for the seminar.

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El Dorado High School
Aztec Architecture
Academy
The El Dorado High School student
body has a new “club” to join, the Aztec
Architecture Academy. Aztecs is the
mascot for the school. The group is
comprised of students in grades 9 to 12
and offers an intensive learning
opportunity for the students wanting to
get into architecture or drafting. Luisa
Valenzuela who also handles the Young
Designer Scholarship competition for El
Dorado is the coordinator. “In my
drafting classes I have found out that
some students are really interested in
designing their graduate work in
architecture, so we created this Academy
in order to meet the passion”, she told
the Builders Outlook. “We have invited
Mr. Ray Adauto to be one of our advisors
along with other advisors from El Paso
Community College and other schools in
the district, as well as from the private
sector” she continued.
The initial meeting was held
September 19 at the school to introduce
parents and guardians to the program.
“We know that it is hard for parents to
understand that sometimes their kids are
going to be working on problems late into
the evening. I want to make sure they
know this is why sometimes.” Valenzuela
said. Students presented the program to
the audience. “I think we have a good
thing going on here,” one parent said.
“We appreciate the extra effort from Ms.
Valenzuela,” the parent concluded.

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ATT NTION BUILDERS!
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LAT
TION
10 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9

#Real Texas
builders www.elpasobuilders.com
©

The El Paso Association of Builders encourages you to work with our members.
Builder members Millennium Homes Barraza Drywall Corp. Eagle Custom Cabinets
as of September 1, 2018 Dan Ruth Ignacio Barraza Juan Benabidez
Bain Construction Pacifica Homes, Inc. Barrett Airworks Eagle Roofing Products
Scott Bain Juan Jose Vasquez Alexandro Castro Scott Aguilar
Althon Investments, LLC Padilla Homes Bassett Woodworks Edgar's Flooring
Jose Luis Martin Misael Navarrete Danny Murillo Edgar Enriquez
Bella Vista Custom Homes, Inc. Palo Verde Homes Beasley, Mitchell & Co., LLP EDLR Platering
Edgar Garcia Edgar Montiel Brad Beasley Eduardo De La Rosa
BIC Homes Pointe Homes Bella Vista Realty Edmund Esper
Antonio Cervantes Carlos Villalobos Grisel Ortega Edmund Esper
Blue Sage Homes, LLC Porter Homes Belmont's Air Conditioning, Inc. El Paso Audio Video by Design
Jaime Gonzalez Albert Porter Rafael Belmonte Joe Gutierrez
Blue Star Construction R.C. Baeza & Associates Big A Construction El Paso Building Materials
Carlos Villasana Robert C. Baeza Thelma Vasquez Ken Wade
Bowling Construction R.E. Welch Contractor BMC Select El Paso Disposal
Randy Bowling Gordon Welch David Quintana Irma Parsons
Carefree Homes Rassette Homes, Inc. Boise Cascade El Paso Mortgage Bankers Association
Richard Aguilar Donald Rassette Mike Flores Gilbert Pedregon
Casas De Leon, LLC Rosewood Design and Build Border Construction Specialties El Paso Times
Nick Bombach Brianna Barnes Ricardo Yvellez Sal Hernandez, Justin Riley
Cisco Homes LLC Santana Custom Homes Border Solar El Paso Truss
Francisco Arroyos III Fernando Santana Javier Ruiz Luis Mendiola
Classic American Homes Southwest Land Development Serv. Bordertown Carpets El Paso Winnelson
Priscilla Hernandez Doug Schwartz Brian M. Abraham Rene Goldfien
Crown Heritage Homes Spanish Oaks Custom Homes Builders Source Appliance Gallery Electrolux NA
Lydia Mlouhi Juan R. Saenz Sandra Lucero Adger Colley
Cullers & Caldwell Builders The Heritage Group Bukaty Financial Companies Group Elizardo Garcia Electric
John Cullers David Bingham Ruth Rivera Elizardo Garcia
Cullers Homes Trejo Construction Co. C. D. Lee/Britton Insurance & Bonding ERA Sellers & Buyers
Jason R. Cullers Juan Trejo Anthony Landavazo/Lisa Daniels Karla Reyes
D B Innovations LLC Tropicana Building Corp. Cabinet Masters ESS Environmental and Safety Solutions
Dan Berry Bobby Bowling IV Mike Robles Jose L. Garcia Ramirez
Dawco Home Builders Tropicana Development Carpet Warehouse EZE-R-DESIGNS
Walter O. Lujan Greg Bowling Erez Belkin Leticia Mata
Deal 2 Deal Custom Homes Tropicana Homes Casa Ford & Casa Nissan Farmers Ins.-Mercedes Ruiz
Delton Deal Randy Bowling Luke Lowenfield Mercedes Ruiz
Del Rio Engineering, Inc. Tropicana Properties Castillo Electric Felipe Rocha Construction
Sal Masoud Demetrio Jimenez Jose Del Val Felipe Rocha
Diamond Homes, LLC Vallance Construction LLC CEA Engineering Group Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Valerie Baquera Oswaldo Prieto Jorge L. Azcarate Albert Holguin
Donald Ward Builder, Inc. Villagi Homes, LLC Central Texas Metal Roofing Supply Co.,Inc. Fire Smoke N' Grill
Donald Ward Kristi Eddings Ben Garza, III Bill Owen
E. Valencia Land Development LLC Vista del Sol Archetectural Design Centricity First American Bank
Eddie Valencia Luis J. Lopez Brent R. Morgan Louis Sauceda
Eclat Homes & Designs Will Harvey Development Century 21 The Edge First Light Federal Credit Union
Veronica Guerra Will S. Harvey Scott Kesner Lorenzo Revelez
Edward's Homes, Inc. Winton/Flair/Accent Homes Citizens Loan Center First National 1870
Eduardo Fernandez Herschel Stringfield Jim Easley Haley Merritt
EPT Bella Custom Dream Homes City Bank Texas Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr
Leti & Javier Navarette Associate members Bob Kotarski Jay Kerr
EPT Land Communities as of September 1, 2018 City Lights Forge Factory Strength & Conditioning
David Bogas Thomas Brown Edmundo Portillo
Everest Homes 150 Sunset CMF Foxworth Galbraith Lumber
Edmundo Dena, Jr. Danny Heredia Carlos Munoz Dan Villarreal
Fortune Custom Homes 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty Cognent, Inc. Franklin Building Materials
Javier Andrade James Hebert Martin Paredes Ricardo Aguilar or Cristina Sheldon
Gaddy Construction 4 Tech A/C Service Commercial Insurance Brokers, Inc. G & G Enterprises Gen. Contractor
Charles Gaddy Enrique Hernandez Ken Foster Juan F. Garcia
GMF Custom Homes, LP 84 Lumber Conde, Inc. G2 Ram Electric
Frank Torres Ernie Chavez Conrad Conde Luis Cano
Guel Construction 915 Siteworks, LLC Copenhagen Imports GCC Sun City Materials,LLC
Rudy Guel Hugo Jasso Flemming Carlsen Antonio "Tony" Chavez
Hakes Brothers, LLC A C Refrigeration, LLC CQC Testing and Engineering,LLC GE Appliances
Chris Hakes Angel Cabrera Jaime Rojas Christine R. Villanueva
Hanson Asset Management, LP A Plus Remodeling & Repairs David Hernandez Cabinets GECU- Greater El Paso Credit Union
Russell Hanson Martin Arroyos David Hernandez Danny Galindo
Homes by Design ABC Supply Co., Inc. David J. Ellis Fee Office for Sierra Title GEPAR-Greater El Paso Assoc. of Realtors
Leslie Driggers Hoard Larry Eck David J. Ellis Jason Sanchez
Hunt Communities, LLC Acme Brick Company De La Torre Iron Works Go Pro Refrigeration
Kathy Parry Steve Bush Alfredo de la Torre Humberto Diaz
ICON Custom Builder, LLC. Adams Moulding & Lumber Delek US dba 7 Eleven Goodman Mfg.
Carlos Garcia Tom Swahlen Sonja Scanlan Jorge Guajardo
Industrial Realty Group Incorporated Agustin Favela Concrete Demcon Disposal Management, LLC Great American Insurance Group
Brent D. Harris Agustin Favela Maria Elena (Nena) Gomez Julie Tomlinson
JER Custom Homes, LLC Alden R & R Services, LLC Desert Quest Plumbing Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce
Jorge E. Rodriguez Alejandro Dena Hector Gonzalez David Michael Jerome
Kayton Lee Residential, Inc. Allbrite Electrical Designer's Mart H P Roofing & Construction
Brianna Barnes Carlos Nunez Valerie Edmiston Heriberto Prieto
Lloyd Hamilton Contruction Alvarado Plastering & Stucco, LLC Diaz Services, Inc. Harris Real Estate Group
Lloyd Hamilton, III Jose Enrique Alvarado Emmanuel Diaz Lane Harris
LMJ Construction Co., LLC Amelia's Janitorial Services Dominguez Insurance Agency Haskins Electric
Mike Lopez Amelia Gomez Victoria Dominguez Charles B. Haskins, Jr.
Loyalty Homes Area Iron & Steel Works, Inc. Doors and More Hector De.La Canal Real Estate Group
Gustavo Loy Fred L. Edmonston Jr. Miguel Moran Hector De. La Canal
M A Builders & Design, LLC Atrium Homes Dorney Security Hector Phillips fee Office for Sierra Title
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2018 Issue 9 Builders Outlook 11
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Cruz Balcorta Joe Soto Bradley Roe Mica Short
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A 10-Year Anniversary Highlights Need for Housing Finance Reform
Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9

“Comprehensive legislation that villain. It allowed banks to engage in trading


incorporates these elements will ensure that profitable derivatives that they sold to
housing credit remains readily available and investors. These mortgage-backed securities
affordable in the future, provide the needed home loans as collateral. The
foundation for a stable housing finance derivatives created an insatiable demand for
system and protect taxpayers,” said Noel. more and more mortgages.
“And as Congress deliberates, the The Federal Reserve believed the
administration needs to ensure that reforms subprime mortgage crisis would remain
put in place during conservatorship that have confined to the housing sector. Fed officials
enabled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to didn't know how far the damage would
better facilitate mortgage liquidity are not cast spread. They didn't understand the actual
aside.” causes of the subprime mortgage crisis until
later.
ABOUT THE 2008 CRISIS Hedge funds and other financial institutions
The 2008 financial crisis is the worst around the world owned the mortgage-backed
economic disaster since the Great securities. The securities were also in mutual
Depression of 1929. It occurred despite funds, corporate assets, and pension funds.
Federal Reserve and Treasury Department The banks had chopped up the original
efforts to prevent it. mortgages and resold them in tranches. That
It led to the Great Recession. That's when made the derivatives impossible to price.
housing prices fell 31.8 percent, more than Why did stodgy pension funds buy such
the price plunge during the Depression. Two risky assets? They thought an insurance
years after the recession ended, product called credit default swaps protected
With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now government backstop to maintain stability in unemployment was still above 9 percent. them. A traditional insurance company known
marking their tenth year of conservatorship, the market during times of economic turmoil. That's not counting discouraged workers who as the American International Group sold
the National Association of Home Builders NAHB believes a federal backstop is a had given up looking for work. these swaps. When the derivatives lost value,
(NAHB) called on Congress to make it a critical element that must be incorporated into Causes AIG didn't have enough cash flow to honor all
priority to enact comprehensive reform to the any overhaul of the housing finance system. The first sign that the economy was in the swaps.
nation’s housing finance system. NAHB is also urging Congress to enact trouble occurred in 2006. That's when Banks panicked when they realized they
“To ensure a stable housing finance system further reforms that would: housing prices started to fall. At first, realtors would have to absorb the losses. They
that will support the future of homeownership applauded. They thought the overheated stopped lending to each other. They didn't
and affordable multifamily housing in America, • Preserve the successful multifamily housing market would return to a more want other banks giving them worthless
Congress must fix the structural flaws housing finance framework; sustainable level. mortgages as collateral. No one wanted to
inherent in Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s • Continue the roles of the federal Realtors didn't realize there were too many get stuck holding the bag. As a result,
government charters that contributed to the government housing agencies; homeowners with questionable credit. Banks interbank borrowing costs, known as Libor,
housing finance crisis,” said NAHB Chairman • Provide an equal playing field for small had allowed people to take out loans for 100 rose. This mistrust within the banking
Randy Noel, a custom home builder from lenders; percent or more of the value of their new community was the primary cause of the
LaPlace, La. • Restart a fully private mortgage-backed homes. Many blamed the Community 2008 financial crisis.
Today, House Financial Services Chairman securities market; and Reinvestment Act. It pushed banks to make By Kimberly Amadeo

Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and Rep. John •  Enhance the activities of state and investments in subprime areas, but that Updated August 02, 2018

Delaney (D-Md.) issued a draft of a housing regional sources of housing funding. wasn't the underlying cause.
finance reform bill that includes a federal The Gramm-Rudman Act was the real

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14 Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9

Market Watch
www.marketwatch.com

We’re probably at peak housing. Here’s what that means.


A decade after the housing crisis, sales three straight years of inventory decline,” unable to make their mortgage payments, or Khater noted, “but never went negative, and
may have reached an unimpressive top. Khater said in an interview. “It’s not only not- might decide to take a different job in a the impact on performance was fairly minor.”
In May, sales of previously-owned homes expanding, it’s contracting. The consensus different city. That would prompt many That is, people were able to continue to
slumped, the second month in a row of is that if there’s a recession, it’s a modest, people to sell their homes at cheaper prices make their mortgage payments on time.
declining sales. The National Association of plain-vanilla recession. If that’s the case, I than the houses might be valued at if the There are, again, lots of caveats. In a
Realtors, which tracks those sales, pointed think what it might do is cause inventories to economy wasn’t under pressure. At the nationwide recession, some areas that aren’t
to the same culprit it’s blamed for the past rise modestly and home price growth to same time, there would be less of the as hot as Houston (over 104,000 out-of-
few years: not enough supply of homes to slow. My base case is that – an economic frenzied demand for homes that bid prices state residents re-located there in 2016)
buy. recession but not a real estate recession.” higher. (As Khater emphasizes, it’s won’t fare as well.
Shortly after the Realtors released their For economic history wonks, Khater likens impossible to know which sectors of the Still, homeowners generally have built up
data, Regions Chief Economist Richard his “base case” to the 2000-2001 downturn, economy get hurt the hardest in the next more equity than at any time in American
Moody wrote this in a research note: “Given which was a recession caused in part by the downturn, and it’s possible the pain could be history, and they’re staying in homes longer.
that we see little reason to expect implosion of the dot-com sector – but which widespread, nationwide.) That should provide a good “cushion” for
meaningful relief on the inventory front over didn’t really hit the housing market. In Richard Moody’s outlook, a housing most homeowners in a downturn, as Khater
coming quarters, we think it reasonable to Khater is reluctant to forecast details downturn before we get to an economic puts it.
conclude that we have passed the cyclical about something he thinks won’t happen for downturn, demand would “settle back,” as Put another way: the most vulnerable
peak for existing home sales.” another two years or so, but he did point out he puts it, and “that would be reflected in homeowners in the next downturn could be
Ten years after the financial crisis, the that markets that are the most overvalued less upward pressure on prices.”That is to people in pricey coastal markets who bought
notion of a housing “peak” – which would would likely be the ones that get hurt the say, prices across the country could even recently and have very little equity in their
naturally be followed by a downturn – seems most in any kind of downturn. continue rising – just more slowly. homes, either because they made small
downright spooky. The trauma of the last Picture a mild economic downturn, in That’s what happened in Houston when down payments or because they’ve taken it
correction is still with us: more than 1.1 which hundreds of tech workers along the oil prices collapsed in 2014. Yearly home out.
million Americans are still underwater, West Coast lose their jobs. Many would be price gains decelerated from 12% to 4%, By Andrea Riquier
according to Black Knight, many
foreclosures are still wending their way
through the system, and ultra-tight lending
standards put in place when the pendulum
swung hard after the correction continue to
lock many Americans out of the market.
But under normal circumstances, a
correction in housing, like in any market, is
normal, foreseeable – and possibly, though
not certainly – upon us.
(It’s also worth noting that many voices
have spent the last several years,
seemingly ever since the last bubble burst,
squawking about a new bubble. And it’s
true that prices in many metros keep
pushing higher and higher, defying the laws
of logical market dynamics. But that’s been
driven by outsize demand and lean supply
that can’t keep up, not speculation.)
For the handful of economists calling the
present moment a cycle top, it simply
means that from here on, sales will stop
growing, and possibly even decline, as will
home prices.
Here’s how Nationwide Chief Economist
David Berson put it in May, in response to
the Realtors’ April sales figures: “We
project that existing home sales will edge
up by around 1% in 2018 to around 5.56
million units, which would be the strongest
pace of sales since 2006. We expect that
this will be the high-water mark for sales in
this cycle.”

There’s widespread agreement among


housing-watchers that the biggest problem
facing the market is the supply-demand
imbalance referenced in the May existing-
home sales data.
Where analysts disagree is on what
impact that will have. Moody and another
economist, Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon
Macro, believe that if supply remains
stifled, it will continue to push home prices
higher and higher. Add that to rising
mortgage rates, and at some point demand
will wane.
“You can withstand some further
increase in mortgage rates, but at some
point, eventually you hit a tipping point on
mortgage rates where it does erode
affordability,” Moody told MarketWatch.
But Sam Khater, chief economist for
mortgage finance provider Freddie Mac,
thinks there’s still room to run. Khater
thinks existing-home sales have “hit the
speed limit,” and recognizes that rising
rates will at some point price many people
out of the market.
Still, he said, “Total sales should
continue to go up.”
Usually, over-supply is what causes a
housing downturn, Khater said. Remember
home builders throwing up development
after development in 2005-2006, farther
and farther away from city centers, in the
expectation that there would be an endless
supply of people to buy them?
“Here we are nine years in, we’ve had
Builders Outlook 2018 Issue 9 El Paso Disposal
6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905
915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038
■■ExEcuTivE OFFicERS
PRESiDENT
Edmundo Dena
Luis Rosas, HUB International
Brenda Aguirre, Rocky Mountain Mortgage
Sandra Lucero, Builders Source
772-7495
vicE PRESiDENT Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing
Sergio Cuartas Jorge Herrera, J&H Post Concrete & Post Tension
SEcRETARY Angelique Roman, Sierra Title
Edgar Garcia Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate
ASSOCIATES VICE PRESIDENT Sam Trimble, Lone Star Title
Sam Shallenberger Patricia Martinez, Stewart Title
ExEcuTivE vicE PRESiDENT Randall Smith, Randall Smith, CPA
Ray Adauto
PAST PRESiDENT ■ TAB STATE DiREcTORS
Don Rassette Randy Bowling - Life Director
Sam Shallenberger
■■cOMMiTTEE cHAiRS Edmundo Dena
Membership
Ted Escobedo ■ NATiONAL DiREcTORS
Patrick Tuttle Bobby Bowling, III
Demetrio Jimenez
Finance committee Leslie Driggers Hoard -Alternate
Kathy Carrillo/Treasurer Antonio Cervantes - Alternate
Henry Tinajero
Honorary Life Members
Community Outreach Mark Dyer
Angelique Roman

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Tract Homes • Custom Homes


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Satisfaction
EPAB Mission Statement:
Sal Masoud, Del Rio Development The El Paso Association of Builders is a federated professional
Fernando Santana, Santana Custom Homes organization representing the home building industry,
committed to enhancing the quality of life in our community by
Associates: providing affordable homes of excellence and value.
Joe Bernal, Joe Bernal Insurance The El Paso Association of Builders is a 501C(6) trade
Henry Tinajero, WestStar Bank organization.
Kathy Carillo, Pioneer Bank © 2018 Builder’s Outlook is published and distributed for
John Chaney, Hercules Industries the El Paso Association of Builders
by Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC

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