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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL SEPTEMBER 28th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto
• Five Wards To Watch
28th September 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of five surveys conducted in the wards of three levels of government, President and CEO
Toronto Centre, Beaches-East York, York Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek, international public affairs.
and Scarborough-Agincourt that were
conducted between September 24th and 25th Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
among residents of these ward, aged 18 years Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
of age or older. The survey was conducted snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
using automated telephone interviews (Smart a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both was the only polling firm to correctly predict
landlines and cellular phones. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The sampling frame was derived from both predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
a national telephone directory compiled elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
by Mainstreet Research from various special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
commerically available sources and random a member of the World Association for Public
digit dialing. Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third CONTACT INFORMATION
party. In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
The margin of error and sample size for each quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
survey is as follows:
Toronto Centre: n=566, +/- 4.1% In Toronto:
Beaches-East York: n=614, +/- 3.94% Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
York South-Weston: n=593, +/- 4.01% joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Humber River-Black Creek: n=452, +/- 4.59%
Scarborough-Agincourt: n=625, +/- 3.9% Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this twitter.com/MainStResearch
report) facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
MAMMOLITI BEHIND IN THE EARLY STAGES OF MUNICIPAL CAMPAIGN

28 September 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Giorgio Mammoliti would face defeat against Anthony
Perruzza in the municipal ward of Humber River-Black Creek if the election were held today.

That is the main finding from five Mainstreet Research polls fielded on September 24th and
25th of key Toronto wards to watch.

“Doug Ford stands to lose one of his biggest allies on City Council if the election were held
today,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “As it stands right
now, Giorgio Mammoliti would be one of the big name casualties in the new 25 ward city
council.”

Among decided and leaning voters, Perruzza has 30.2% support and Mammoliti is tied
with former public school trustee Tiffany Ford with 21.1% support. Recent provincial Liberal
candidate Deanna Sgro has 17.2%.

In Scarborough-Agincourt, Jim Karygiannis has nearly a 3.3% lead over Norm Kelly among
decided and leaning voters. Karygiannis has 47.3% while Kelly comes in with 44%.

Moving over to the race between incumbents in York South-Weston, Frances Nunziata has
a ten point lead over Frank Di Giorgio. Among decided and leaning voters, Nunziata enjoys
40.4% support while Di Giorgio has 30.2% support. Previous candidate Lekan Olawoye has
7.2% while Chiara Padovani has 3.8%.

Looking at Toronto Centre, Kristyn Wong-Tam leads with 44% support among decided
and leaning voters. Former Liberal cabinet minister and 2010 mayoral candidate George
Smitherman comes in with 27.7% support. Incumbent Lucy Troisi has 7.7% support while
Walied Khogali has 3.5%.

Turning to Beaches-East York, former MP Matthew Kellway has a solid lead with 56.3% of
decided and leaning voters. Main challengers Diane Dyson and David Del Grande have 7.4%
and 7.5%.

Maggi said that the high number of undecided voters places caution on these early numbers.

“It not surprising the see such a high undecided rate for councillor races at this stage of the
game, so it is too early to make hard conclusions on who is going to win on October 22nd.”
said Maggi. “That said, our polling shows that Mamolitti, Di Giorgio, Smitherman, and Norm
Kelly have some work to do if they want to be elected in less than a month’s time.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:


Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters All Voters Decided
Beaches-East and Leaning
York
3.3% 3.3% 7.4%
2% 2%
7.5%
28.9%

28.1% 28.1%

All Voters All Voters Decided and Leaning


54.5% 54.5%

12.1% 12.1%
56.3%

David Del Grande Diane Dyson David DelKellway


Matthew Grande Diane Dyson Matthew
DavidKellway
Del Grande Diane Dyson Matthew Kellway

Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate

All Voters All Voters


Humber Decided and
River-Black Leaning
Creek
10.5%
16.1% 16.1%
21.1%
27.9% 27.9%

17.2%

All Voters 20.5%


All Voters Decided and Leaning
20.5%

7% 7%

30.2%
21.1%
11.5% 11.5%
16.9% 16.9%

Giorgio Mammoliti Anthony Perruzza Giorgio Mammoliti


Tiffany Ford Anthony Perruzza Tiffany
Giorgio Ford
Mammoliti Anthony Perruzza Tiffany Ford

Deanna Sgro Another Candidate Deanna Sgro


Undecided Another Candidate Undecided Deanna Sgro Another Candidate
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters All Scarborough-Agincourt
Voters Decided and Leaning

8.8%

26.2% 26.2%

36.2% 36.2%

47.3%
All Voters All Voters Decided and Leaning
5.1% 5.1%
44%

32.5% 32.5%

Jim Karygiannis Norm Kelly Jim Karygiannis


Another Candidate Norm Kelly
Undecided Another Candidate Undecided
Jim Karygiannis Norm Kelly Another Candidate

All Voters All Voters


Toronto Decided
Centre and Leaning

2.6%
2.6% 3.5%
16.8%
17.4%
17.4%

36% 27.7%
36%

4.9%
4.9%

All Voters All Voters Decided and Leaning

7.7%

28.6% 44.3% 28.6%


10.4%
10.4%

Walied Khogali George Smitherman Lucy Troisi


Walied Khogali George Smitherman Lucy Troisi Walied Khogali George Smitherman Lucy Troisi

Kristyn Wong-Tam Another Candidate Undecided


Kristyn Wong-Tam Another Candidate Undecided Kristyn Wong-Tam Another Candidate
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters
York South-Weston

19.9%

35.3%

All Voters

27.1%

Decided9.7%
and Leaning
2.8% 5.2%

All Voters
Frank Digiorgio
18.3% Frances Nunziata Lekan Olawoye

Chiara Padovani Another Candidate Undecided


30.2%

19.9%
3.8%

35.3%

7.2% Decided and Leaning


All Voters

27.1%

9.7%
40.4%
2.8% 5.2%

Frank Di Giorgio Frances Nunziata Lekan Olawoye


Frank Digiorgio Frances Nunziata Lekan Olawoye
Chiara Padovani Another Candidate Undecided
Chiara Padovani Another Candidate
Breakouts
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election
were held today?
Beaches-East York
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
David Del Grande 3.3% 4.5% 2.2% 9.9% - 0.4% 2%
Diane Dyson 2% 2.8% 1.3% - 2% 2.6% 3.8%
Matthew Kellway 28.1% 28.7% 27.7% 29.7% 19.1% 28.5% 35.4%
Another Candidate 12.1% 11.8% 12.3% 12.4% 19.8% 9.5% 6.2%
Undecided 54.5% 52.3% 56.4% 48% 59.1% 59% 52.6%
Unweighted Frequency 614 240 374 31 98 233 252
Weighted Frequency 614 289 325 170 152 147 146

(all voters with leaning totals)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
David Del Grande 4.3% 4.9% 3.7% 10.2% - 1.9% 3.9%
Diane Dyson 4.2% 6.6% 1.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.9% 6.1%
Matthew Kellway 30.3% 29.7% 30.9% 30.6% 20.5% 31.4% 39.4%
Another Candidate 15% 14.5% 15.4% 12.8% 23.5% 13.9% 9.5%
Undecided 46.3% 44.3% 48.2% 42.9% 52.6% 49% 41.2%
Unweighted Frequency 614 240 374 31 98 233 252
Weighted Frequency 614 289 325 170 152 147 146

(decided and leaning voters)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
David Del Grande 7.4% 8.2% 6.7% 17.7% - 3.7% 6.8%
Diane Dyson 7.5% 11.6% 3.8% 5.9% 7% 7.4% 9.8%
Matthew Kellway 56.3% 52.3% 59.8% 53% 44.1% 62% 66.9%
Another Candidate 28.9% 28% 29.8% 23.4% 48.9% 26.9% 16.5%
Unweighted Frequency 301 123 178 17 43 108 133
Weighted Frequency 301 142 159 83 75 72 71
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election
were held today?
Humber River-Black Creek

(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Giorgio Mammoliti 16.1% 19.6% 13% 11.5% 21.3% 16.4% 16.9%
Anthony Perruzza 20.5% 18% 22.8% 6% 29.2% 24.4% 29.6%
Tiffany Ford 16.9% 26.1% 8.8% 28.2% 11.6% 12.1% 10.5%
Deanna Sgro 11.5% 10.3% 12.6% 21% 1.2% 10.2% 10.4%
Another Candidate 7% 3.2% 10.5% 9.5% 7.8% 4.8% 4.6%
Undecided 27.9% 22.8% 32.3% 23.8% 28.8% 32.2% 28.1%
Unweighted Frequency 452 208 244 34 78 146 194
Weighted Frequency 452 213 239 147 112 108 85

(all voters with leaning totals)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Giorgio Mammoliti 17.3% 21.7% 13.3% 11.5% 23.7% 18.4% 17.4%
Anthony Perruzza 24.3% 23.4% 25.1% 11.5% 31.7% 27.7% 32.3%
Tiffany Ford 17.7% 26.1% 10.3% 28.2% 13% 13.5% 11%
Deanna Sgro 13.9% 11.4% 16.3% 24.2% 1.2% 14.4% 12.4%
Another Candidate 8.4% 3.8% 12.4% 9.5% 11.9% 6.1% 4.6%
Undecided 18.4% 13.6% 22.7% 15.1% 18.4% 19.9% 22.3%
Unweighted Frequency 452 208 244 34 78 146 194
Weighted Frequency 452 213 239 147 112 108 85

(decided and leaning voters)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Giorgio Mammoliti 21.1% 25.2% 17.3% 13.4% 28.6% 22.8% 22.2%
Anthony Perruzza 30.2% 27.3% 32.8% 13.4% 38.8% 34.9% 42%
Tiffany Ford 21.1% 29.9% 13.3% 32.2% 16.1% 16.8% 13.9%
Deanna Sgro 17.2% 13.1% 20.8% 29.2% 1.4% 17.9% 16.1%
Another Candidate 10.5% 4.5% 15.8% 11.9% 15.1% 7.5% 5.8%
Unweighted Frequency 361 173 188 29 64 117 151
Weighted Frequency 361 140 191 118 89 86 68
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election
were held today?
Scarborough-Agincourt

(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Jim Karygiannis 36.2% 36.4% 36.1% 21.5% 44.6% 44% 36.7%
Norm Kelly 32.5% 29.2% 35.3% 31% 34% 27.2% 37.9%
Another Candidate 5.1% 8.1% 2.5% 8.4% 1.4% 6.1% 3.8%
Undecided 26.2% 26.2% 26.2% 39.1% 20% 22.7% 21.6%
Unweighted Frequency 625 260 365 23 76 162 364
Weighted Frequency 625 289 336 167 136 161 161

(all voters with leaning totals)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Jim Karygiannis 37.3% 37.5% 37.2% 21.5% 44.6% 45.2% 39.7%
Norm Kelly 33.8% 30.3% 36.8% 31% 34% 29% 41.3%
Another Candidate 6.5% 11.2% 2.5% 12.6% 1.4% 7.2% 3.8%
Undecided 22.4% 21% 23.6% 34.9% 20% 18.6% 15.2%
Unweighted Frequency 625 260 365 23 76 162 364
Weighted Frequency 625 289 336 167 136 161 161

(decided and leaning voters)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Jim Karygiannis 47.3% 46.9% 47.6% 32.6% 55.8% 55.7% 46.8%
Norm Kelly 44% 37.7% 49.3% 48.6% 42.4% 35.6% 48.8%
Another Candidate 8.8% 15.4% 3.1% 18.9% 1.8% 8.7% 4.4%
Unweighted Frequency 517 222 295 15 61 132 309
Weighted Frequency 517 239 278 138 113 133 133
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election
were held today?
Toronto Centre

(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Walied Khogali 2.6% 4.3% 1.2% 4.8% 4.9% - 0.4%
George Smitherman 17.4% 20.5% 14.6% 20.7% 10.7% 17.4% 20.7%
Lucy Troisi 4.9% 5.1% 4.8% - 5% 10.5% 5%
Kristyn Wong-Tam 28.6% 35.4% 22.6% 10.4% 31.7% 36.6% 38.6%
Another Candidate 10.4% 5.8% 14.5% 22% 7.8% 6.7% 3.3%
Undecided 36% 28.9% 42.3% 42.1% 40% 28.8% 32%
Unweighted Frequency 566 304 262 19 102 176 269
Weighted Frequency 566 267 299 156 140 135 134

(all voters with leaning totals)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Walied Khogali 2.6% 4.3% 1.2% 4.8% 4.9% - 0.4%
George Smitherman 21.2% 23.9% 18.8% 26.2% 13.4% 20.2% 24.3%
Lucy Troisi 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% - 5.9% 11.7% 5.8%
Kristyn Wong-Tam 33.2% 39.5% 27.6% 20.7% 32.8% 41.2% 40.1%
Another Candidate 12.5% 9.5% 15.2% 26.9% 8.8% 7.8% 4.4%
Undecided 24.8% 17.3% 31.6% 21.4% 34.2% 19.1% 24.9%
Unweighted Frequency 566 304 262 19 102 176 269
Weighted Frequency 566 267 299 156 140 135 134

(decided and leaning voters)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Walied Khogali 3.5% 5.2% 2% 5.4% 7.5% - 0.6%
George Smitherman 27.7% 28.6% 27% 33.3% 20.1% 24.7% 32.3%
Lucy Troisi 7.7% 6.8% 8.5% - 9.3% 15.2% 7.5%
Kristyn Wong-Tam 44.3% 48% 41% 25.8% 49.5% 50.8% 53.9%
Another Candidate 16.8% 11.4% 21.6% 35.5% 13.7% 9.3% 5.8%
Unweighted Frequency 429 251 178 15 68 143 203
Weighted Frequency 429 202 227 118 106 103 102
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election
were held today?
York South-Weston

(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Frank Di Giorgio 19.9% 23.5% 16.6% 28.7% 18.1% 14.1% 14.3%
Frances Nunziata 27.1% 30.6% 24% 29.1% 18.8% 24.5% 38.1%
Lekan Olawoye 5.2% 6.5% 4% 9.4% 2.9% 3.9% 2.4%
Chiara Padovani 2.8% 4.7% 1.2% 4.9% 3.8% 1% 0.4%
Another Candidate 9.7% 7.8% 11.3% - 15.2% 15.6% 11.7%
Undecided 35.3% 26.8% 42.9% 27.9% 41.2% 41% 33.2%
Unweighted Frequency 593 224 369 21 106 212 254
Weighted Frequency 593 279 314 193 147 142 111

(all voters with leaning totals)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Frank Di Giorgio 21.6% 25% 18.6% 28.7% 20.9% 16.4% 16.8%
Frances Nunziata 29.3% 32.6% 26.4% 29.1% 21.6% 26.8% 42.9%
Lekan Olawoye 5.2% 6.5% 4% 9.4% 2.9% 3.9% 2.4%
Chiara Padovani 2.8% 4.7% 1.2% 4.9% 3.8% 1% 0.4%
Another Candidate 13% 10.3% 15.3% - 21.8% 20.7% 14%
Undecided 28.1% 20.9% 34.6% 27.9% 28.9% 31.2% 23.6%
Unweighted Frequency 593 224 369 21 106 212 254
Weighted Frequency 593 279 314 193 147 142 111

(decided and leaning voters)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Frank Di Giorgio 30.2% 31.7% 28.8% 40.3% 29.2% 24.2% 21.2%
Frances Nunziata 40.4% 41.1% 39.8% 39.5% 31% 39.2% 56.2%
Lekan Olawoye 7.2% 8.4% 6.3% 13.7% 3.9% 5.1% 3.1%
Chiara Padovani 3.8% 6.1% 1.8% 6.4% 5.3% 1.3% 0.5%
Another Candidate 18.3% 12.8% 23.3% - 30.6% 30.2% 18.9%
Unweighted Frequency 430 167 263 15 75 146 194
Weighted Frequency 430 203 227 140 106 103 80
Questionnaire
On October 22 2018, you will have Frank Di Giorgio
a chance to vote in your municipal Frances Nunziata
election. Which candidate for City Lekan Olawoye
Council would you vote for if an Chiara Padovani
election were held today? Another Candidate
(Beaches-East York - first three Undecided
responses randomized)
David Del Grande And which candidate are you leaning
Diane Dyson towards?
Matthew Kellway (only asked of respondents who
Another Candidate indicated they were undecided in the
Undecided previous question)

(Humber River-Black Creek - first four (Beaches-East York - first three


responses randomized) responses randomized)
Giorgio Mammoliti David Del Grande
Anthony Perruzza Diane Dyson
Tiffany Ford Matthew Kellway
Deanna Sgro Another Candidate
Another Candidate Undecided
Undecided
(Humber River-Black Creek - first four
(Scarborough-Agincourt - first two responses randomized)
responses randomized) Giorgio Mammoliti
Jim Karygiannis Anthony Perruzza
Norm Kelly Tiffany Ford
Another Candidate Deanna Sgro
Undecided Another Candidate
Undecided
(Toronto-Centre - first four responses
randomized) (Scarborough-Agincourt - first two
Walied Khogali responses randomized)
George Smitherman Jim Karygiannis
Lucy Troisi Norm Kelly
Kristyn Wong-Tam Another Candidate
Another Candidate Undecided
Undecided
(Toronto-Centre - first four responses
(York South-Weston - first four randomized)
responses randomized) Walied Khogali
George Smitherman What is your gender?
Lucy Troisi Male
Kristyn Wong-Tam Female
Another Candidate
Undecided What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
(York South-Weston - first four 35 to 49 years of age
responses randomized) 50 to 64 years of age
Frank Di Giorgio 65 years of age or older
Frances Nunziata
Lekan Olawoye
Chiara Padovani
Another Candidate
Undecided
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of five surveys conducted in the wards of
Toronto Centre, Beaches-East York, York South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek, and
Scarborough-Agincourt that were conducted between September 24th and 25th among
residents of these ward, aged 18 years of age or older. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
the five wards surveyed.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error at the 95% confidence level and sample size for each survey is as follows:
Toronto Centre: n=566, +/- 4.1%; Beaches-East York: n=614; +/- 3.94% York South-Weston:
n=593, +/- 4.01%; Humber River-Black Creek: n=452, +/- 4.59%; Scarborough-Agincourt:
n=625, +/- 3.9%. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.