You are on page 1of 7

28 septembre 2018 www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 30.5 19.8 30.5 15.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 -
sièges 47 15 56 7 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 20.4% 0.0% 77.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 0.3% 0.0% 16.8% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 29.9% 24.0% 28.3% 17.7% 0.1% 53% 11% 36% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 26.7% 27.8% 25.5% 19.4% 0.1% 0.4% 33% 42% 23% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 61.8% 7.2% 15.2% 11.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 41.6% 16.4% 21.3% 18.4% 1.8% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 28.7% 26.7% 32.1% 10.0% 2.1% 0.4% 28% 15% 57% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 22.3% 8.7% 52.8% 12.2% 1.4% 2.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 28.0% 1.2% 58.2% 9.9% 2.8% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 43.2% 0.0% 44.1% 8.9% 0.2% 3.5% 46% 0% 54% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 20.8% 33.5% 31.4% 12.3% 1.6% 0.5% 1% 62% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 39.6% 7.7% 40.3% 9.8% 2.6% 47% 0% 53% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 7.9% 31.4% 41.4% 17.1% 2.2% 0% 11% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 13.1% 28.8% 37.7% 19.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0% 14% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 22.0% 23.2% 41.9% 11.4% 0.9% 0.5% 1% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 32.1% 38.1% 11.5% 18.2% 0.1% 23% 77% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 12.0% 25.0% 42.8% 18.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 51.1% 12.5% 17.0% 16.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 21.5% 30.1% 24.2% 21.9% 2.3% 7% 71% 16% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 28.6% 13.6% 39.5% 17.5% 0.8% 10% 0% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 14.5% 27.6% 42.3% 12.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 25.8% 22.3% 37.2% 13.8% 0.2% 0.6% 6% 1% 92% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 44.8% 10.3% 26.3% 18.5% 0.1% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 26.3% 15.8% 41.6% 14.1% 2.2% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 20.6% 31.7% 33.7% 13.6% 0.5% 1% 40% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 40.7% 17.9% 28.2% 11.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 94% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 25.1% 4.7% 51.2% 9.5% 0.5% 8.6% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 22.3% 29.8% 25.8% 20.3% 1.5% 0.4% 9% 64% 24% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 65.9% 7.1% 19.5% 5.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 17.6% 11.2% 57.0% 10.9% 2.8% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 33.2% 15.5% 34.6% 14.3% 2.5% 43% 0% 57% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 76.6% 1.0% 9.3% 8.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 17.0% 26.7% 43.0% 12.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 14.9% 19.8% 49.1% 14.7% 1.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 29.9% 25.7% 28.2% 15.9% 0.4% 50% 16% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 27.5% 32.8% 21.8% 17.6% 0.3% 22% 74% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 45.7% 16.6% 25.9% 8.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.4% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 23.5% 45.2% 13.7% 17.5% 0.0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 45.1% 10.1% 25.7% 18.5% 0.5% 0.1% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 10.3% 13.0% 10.0% 63.8% 2.9% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 8.1% 14.3% 62.1% 14.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 21.7% 24.9% 39.5% 12.5% 0.9% 0.4% 1% 3% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 16.5% 33.1% 12.3% 37.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0% 37% 0% 63% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 42.0% 13.7% 20.4% 22.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 36.1% 12.9% 33.4% 15.0% 0.8% 1.4% 0.5% 64% 0% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 15.0% 23.2% 43.5% 16.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 39.2% 32.6% 10.3% 17.9% 78% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 69.7% 1.0% 13.9% 8.5% 5.0% 1.5% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 20.3% 20.6% 30.3% 25.7% 0.6% 2.1% 0.5% 4% 4% 71% 21% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 68.4% 2.4% 13.1% 14.0% 1.9% 0.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 31.4% 20.7% 26.3% 17.7% 1.8% 1.6% 0.4% 75% 2% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 14.5% 24.1% 43.2% 16.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 7.8% 45.9% 37.0% 8.4% 0.9% 0% 86% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 16.4% 32.8% 34.2% 16.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0% 44% 56% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 12.8% 36.6% 31.3% 18.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0% 75% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 18.4% 34.5% 34.5% 11.4% 1.2% 0% 50% 49% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 64.4% 4.7% 15.8% 14.9% 0.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 19.4% 7.8% 57.7% 12.4% 0.5% 2.3% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 51.7% 7.3% 28.4% 10.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 41.2% 16.3% 25.8% 12.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 25.2% 21.1% 40.3% 11.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 3% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 2.7% 25.7% 58.6% 11.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 34.2% 10.0% 12.8% 39.8% 2.3% 0.2% 0.6% 29% 0% 0% 71% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 36.3% 27.2% 25.6% 8.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 82% 11% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 27.7% 22.6% 33.9% 14.5% 1.4% 19% 3% 78% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 6.4% 28.3% 47.3% 15.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 20.8% 12.6% 51.0% 12.3% 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 32.6% 11.2% 41.2% 12.0% 0.3% 2.7% 14% 0% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 19.3% 15.9% 49.5% 11.2% 1.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 58.2% 10.8% 17.2% 10.0% 3.4% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 17.8% 35.3% 26.5% 16.9% 3.0% 0.5% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 43.7% 13.1% 23.6% 13.3% 4.3% 1.4% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 27.5% 19.8% 37.4% 14.3% 0.3% 0.7% 10% 0% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 9.4% 28.4% 48.9% 11.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 11.5% 53.6% 17.7% 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 30.3% 24.5% 18.4% 24.2% 2.1% 0.6% 69% 17% 1% 13% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 30.8% 22.9% 29.8% 16.0% 0.4% 53% 5% 42% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 18.8% 12.7% 12.6% 53.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 43.1% 21.5% 26.3% 7.3% 1.7% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 10.5% 28.8% 47.7% 11.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 23.4% 21.1% 43.1% 11.9% 0.0% 0.5% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 21.4% 15.8% 43.1% 14.5% 1.6% 3.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 54.6% 7.9% 16.0% 16.4% 3.6% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 68.3% 3.3% 16.8% 5.8% 4.2% 1.0% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 17.5% 15.7% 47.6% 17.2% 0.2% 1.8% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 65.9% 1.4% 12.4% 12.8% 6.4% 0.6% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 30.5% 20.5% 29.3% 18.9% 0.4% 0.5% 56% 2% 42% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 38.8% 16.4% 26.1% 18.2% 0.5% 0.1% 94% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 16.5% 32.8% 30.6% 20.1% 0% 61% 38% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 60.9% 0.4% 19.5% 18.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 31.8% 8.6% 43.9% 13.5% 2.2% 6% 0% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 12.5% 26.7% 43.4% 17.0% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 20.1% 42.6% 21.4% 15.1% 0.8% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 13.9% 28.1% 44.6% 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 15.7% 28.8% 38.3% 14.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0% 11% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 26.0% 20.8% 33.7% 16.8% 1.8% 1.0% 14% 2% 84% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 19.3% 32.8% 29.0% 18.7% 0.1% 1% 69% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 41.2% 15.9% 24.6% 18.2% 0.1% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 74.8% 1.0% 12.0% 7.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 44.1% 26.6% 15.6% 13.4% 0.3% 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 22.3% 31.1% 14.8% 28.9% 2.1% 0.2% 0.6% 5% 63% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 3.0% 31.8% 48.9% 15.9% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue21.1% 25.3% 26.1% 27.0% 0.1% 0.3% 8% 26% 33% 33% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 29.0% 26.5% 24.3% 18.5% 1.7% 54% 29% 16% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 42.5% 17.8% 16.8% 17.2% 4.3% 1.0% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 17.7% 22.0% 42.9% 17.0% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 17.2% 24.0% 40.2% 16.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 11.5% 32.7% 40.5% 13.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0% 18% 82% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 64.1% 1.0% 17.6% 11.7% 3.3% 1.8% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 21.6% 19.6% 12.7% 43.8% 2.1% 0.2% 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 34.3% 23.2% 32.8% 8.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 57% 2% 41% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 17.8% 29.4% 39.6% 11.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0% 10% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 26.6% 24.4% 23.8% 23.4% 1.4% 0.5% 44% 24% 19% 13% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 41.8% 18.5% 27.4% 10.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 22.2% 28.0% 32.0% 16.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 5% 28% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 21.4% 21.4% 21.1% 35.0% 0.6% 0.5% 3% 3% 2% 92% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 13.4% 30.6% 42.7% 12.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 27.9% 21.3% 32.3% 16.9% 0.3% 1.4% 27% 2% 71% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 31.2% 26.5% 25.7% 15.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 62% 20% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 25.1% 27.7% 33.5% 12.8% 0.5% 0.5% 9% 20% 71% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 28.7% 12.9% 41.6% 13.9% 0.5% 2.4% 4% 0% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 49.7% 12.1% 24.6% 10.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 11.4% 36.5% 37.9% 12.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0% 44% 56% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 40.7% 19.1% 18.0% 16.7% 4.2% 0.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 54.0% 8.5% 14.5% 22.1% 0.2% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 43.0% 19.3% 27.6% 7.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 64.3% 1.0% 15.9% 12.6% 5.1% 0.6% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges


Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)