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FAO FORESTRY PAPER 22/2

forest volume estimation


rediction
and yield prediction
vol. 2-yiel1
vol. 2 -yield prediction

by
by

d. alder
d.
commonwealth forestry institute, u.k.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE


FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF
OF THE UNITED NATIONS
NATIONS
Rome
Rome 1980
1980
The designations employed
The employed andand the presentation
presentation
of material
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this publication do not
publication do not imply
imply the
expressionofof any
expression any opinion
opinion whatsoever
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the
part of the
part the Food
Food and
andAgriculture
AgricultureOrganization
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of thethe United
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concerning the the legal
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concerning the
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orboundaries.
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M-35
M-35
ISBN 92-5-100923-6
ISBN 92-5-100923-6

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«: FAO 1980
FAD
- iii
- iii --

Table of Contents
Content'

Page
INl'RoruCTION - THE PROBLEM
PROBLEM OF GROWTH
CROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION
1•
-----
INTRODUCTION- THE
--- "- -- - 1

1.1
1.1 REASONS FOR PREDICTING CROWTH
GROWTH AND
AND YIELD
YIELD 11
1.1.1 Production Planning 11
11.1.2
• 1 .2 Silvicultural Research and Planning
Silvicultural Planning 11
11.1.3
• 1• 3 ECological
Ecological Research and Environmental Management
Environmental Management 11
"1.2
1.2 'rHE MEI'HODOLOGY OF GROWTH
THE METHODOLOGY CROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION
PREDICTION 2

1.2.1
1.2.1 The Estimation of Growth and Yield
Yield 2
2
1.2.2
1.2.2 The Construction
Con, truction of a
a MathematIcal
y",themat i cal Model
Model and Its
Its Fitting
Fitting to
to Growth
Growth 3
and Yield Data
IBta
1.2.3 Testing of the Model
Model for
for Validity 3
1.2.4 The Application of the Model
Model to the Required
Required End-Use
End-Use 4

2. DESIGN OF YIELD PREDICTION


PREDICTION STUDIES
S'l'UDIES 5
2.1 SPECIAL FEATURES OF
OF REGRESSION
REGRESSION PARAMETER
PARAMETER ESTIMATION
ESTIMATION 5
2.2 SAMPLING DESIGN FOR
FOR MODEL
MODEL CONSTRUCTION 5
2.2 .1
2.2.1 Temporary Plots 6
6

2.2.1.1 Forest inventory


Forest 66
2.2.1.2 Growth
Growth est imat ion from annual
estimation annual ri Tl€'s
rings 66
2.2.1.3
2.2.1.3 Sa,mpling
Sampling for
for allometric relations hips
relationships 6
2.2.1.4 Sampling
Sampling to
to define parameters of harvesting
harvestin~ operations 66
2.2.1.5 Regeneration surveys 7?
2.2.2 Permanent Sample
Sample Plots
Plots 7?
2.2.2.1 Number
Number of
of PSPs
PSPs required 7?
2.2.2.2 Location of PSPs 8
2.2.2.3 Size of PSPs 8
2.2.2.4 of PSPs
Shape of PSPs 99
2.2 . 2.5
2.2.2.5 Frequency and timing of
of remeasurements 9
2.2.2.6 Sampling with partial replacement 10

2.3 ~PERIMENTAL DESIGNS


EXPERIMINTAL DESIGNS 10
10

2.3.1 Randomized Designs


Designs 11
11

2.3.1.1 Randomized
Randr,mized block
block experiments 11
11
2.3.1.2 Factorial
Factorial experiments 12
12

2.3.2 Syst emat ic Designs


Systematic Des igns 12
2.3.2.1 Single tree experiments 12
2.3.2.2 Clinal
Clinal plots 13
2.4 ~LES OF
EXAMPLES OF GROWTH
CROWTH AND
AND YIELD
YIELD EXPERIMENTS
=ERIMENrS 14
2.4.1 Uniform Forests 14
14

2.4.1.1 Spacing experiments 14


14
2.4.1.2 Constant
Constant basal
basal area thinning experiments
experiments 15
- iv--
- iv

2.4.1.3 eXperiments using


Thinning experiments using graded
graded thinning
thinning treatments
treatments 15
15
2.4.1.4 Factorial experiments with
Factorial experiments with different
different components
components of
of thinning
thinning 16
16
treatment

2.4.2 Mixed Forests 16


2.4.2.1 Randomized bloc5.
Randomized block design 17
17
2.4.2.2
2.4.2.2 Treatment definition
Treatment 17
2.4.2.3 Measurements
Measurements and
and plot
plot design
design 17

3. PRCCElXIRES
PRCCEDURES FOR DATA
DATA COLLECTION
COLLEX:TION AND
AND PRIMARY
PRIMARY ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS 19
3.1 SAMPLE PLOT DEMARCATION 19
19

3.1.1 Location 19
3.1.22 PSP Identification
3.1. Identification on the Ground 19
3.1.3 Determination of Edge Trees 19
3.1.4 Marking Trees 20
3.1.5 Mapping Trees on
on the
the Plot
Plot 20
3.1.6 Identity
Identity Numbers
Numbers for
for Ingrowth 20
3.2
3.~ SAMPLE PLOT
PLOT MEASUREMENT FORMS AND
MEASUREMMT FORMS AND PRIMARY
PRIMARY ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS 21

3.2.1 Forests
Uniform Forests 21
3.2.2 Mixed Forest 24
3.2.3 Initial Assessment
Initial Plots
Assessment of Permanent Plots 25
3.3
3.3 STEI~
STEM ANALYSIS PROCElXIRE
PROCEDURE 26
3.4 SPECIAL MEl'HODS
METHODS OF
OF TREE INCREMENT
INCRE)!ENT ESTIMATION 28
3.4.1 Simple Measurements 28
3.4.2 Remeasurement on
on Buttressed
Buttressed Trees
Trees 28
3.4.3 Girth Bands
Bands 29
3.4.4 Growth Ring Measurements 30

3.5
3.5 INDIRECT
INDIRECT TREE
TREE AND
AND D<l>lINANT
DOMINANT HEIGHT
HEIGHT ESTIMATION
ESTDIATION 31

DATA STORAGE SYSTEMS 33

4.1 ADVANTAGES
ADVANTAGE2 OF COMPUTER-BASED
COMPUTER-BASED DATA
DATA STORAGE
STORAGE SYSTEMS 33
4.2 DATA VALIDATION 34

4.3 CONTRACTS FOR THE PREPARATION


PREPARATION OF COMPUTER PROGRAMMES 35

4.4 STORAGE SYSTEMS FOR PLOT DATA


DATA 36

4.4.1 Introduction 36
4.4.2 File
File Structures
Structures 36
4.4.3 arror
Error Checking and Editing Functions 37
4.4.4
4.4.4 Summaries
Plot Summaries 38
4.4.5 other utilities
Other Utilities 38
4.4.6 Data Bas-,
Data Bas o Security
Security 38

4.5 DATA TRANSFER BEI'WEEN SYSTEMS


BETWEEN COMPUTER SYSTEMS 39
- v-

5. ANALYSIS OFGROWTH
ANALnIS OF GROWTHAND
ANDYIELD
YIELDDATA
DATAPOR
FOR UN-LPORM
UNIFORM FOREST 40
5.1 SITE
SITE CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION 40
5.1.1
5. Height as an Indicator
1• 1 Use of Dominant Height Indicator of
of Site
Site 40
5.1.2 Construction ofof Site
Site Index Curves
Curves 41
41
5.1.2.1 Graphical
Graphical methods
methods of
of construction 41
5.1.2.2
5. 1.2.2 Mathematical methods of fitting site
Mathematical methods index curves
curves 45
45
5.1.3 Site
Site Assessment
Assessment Models Based on
on Ehvironmental
Environmental Factors
Fact ors 61
5.1.3.1 FUnctional for si-te
FUnctional models for class predi~tion
site class prediction 61
5.1.3.2
5. 1.3.2 Cons truction and selection of environmental
Construction environmental variables 62
5.1.3.1
5.1. 3. 3 Problems in the anplication
application of
of site
site assessment
assessment functions
functions 62
5.72
5. STATIC METHODS OF PREDICTING YIELD 63
Graphical ~!ethods
5.2.1 Graphical Bas ed on the Diameter/Height Function
Methods Based 65
5.2.2 Direct
Direct statistical Thtimation of Mean Diameter Prediction
Statistical EStimation Functions
Functions 65
65
5.2.1 Defining Treatment
5.2.3 Treatment Hi story in Terms of StockinE
History Stockinf and Age 66
5.2.4 Static
Static Yield
Yield Functions
Functions Predicting Basal
Bas al Area or Volume 67
5.2.55 Limitations
5.2. Limitations of
of Static
Static Yield Models
Models 67
5.3 DYNAMIC
DYNAMIC METHODS
METHODS OF PREDICTING GROWTH AND YIELD 67
5.3.1
5.3 .1 The Basal
Basal Area Increment
Increment Function 69
5.3.1.1
5.3. 1.1 Basal area increment
Basal incr ement as
a s a function of
of dominant
dominant height 69
5.3.1.2
5·3. 1.2 other
Other methods increment
methods of predicting basal area increment 70
70
5.3.1.3
5. 3.1 .3 Practical
Practical problems in analysis
problems in analys i s of
of increment
increment data
data 70
70
5.3.2
5. 3.2 Co nst ructing aa Growth
Constructing ~!odel with Spacing Experiment
Gr01-rth Model Data. Marsh's
aperiment Data: Marsh ' s 71
71
ResponBe HypotheSis
Response Hypothesis
5.3.3 Convers i on of Growth
Conversion Growth Models
Model s to
to Yield
Yield Models
Models by
by Integration
Integration 73
5.3.3.1 Introduction 73
5.3.3.2
5·3.3.2 Ba.sic theory
Basic theory 73
5.3.3.3 Application ofof an
an integral
int egral yield
yield model
model to
to different
different thinning
thinning 74
74
treatments
5.3.3.4 Example of use of an integral yield model
model 75
5.3.3.5 compatible growth
Fitting compatible growth and
and yield
yield models
models to
to increment
increment data
data n
77
5.3.4 Us e of Growth
Use Growth Models by Simulation 78
5.3.4.1 Requirements for a simulation
simulation model
model 78
5.3.4.2 construction of
Method of construction of aa simulation
simulation model
model 79
79
5.3.f.3
5.3 •.' .3 Example of a simple
EXample simple simulation
simulation model
model 79
79
5.4
5.4 THINNING 86
86
5.4.1 The Thinning Ratio 86
5.4.2 Thinning Yields
Estimating Thinning Yields in
in Static
Static Models
Models 87
87
5.4.3
5.4.3 Estimating Thinning Yields in D,ynamic Models
Estimating Thinning Yields in Dynamic Models 88
88
5.5
5.5 MORTALITY 88
88
5.5.1 Establishment Mortality
Establishment 88
5.5.2
5.5.2 Density-Dependent Mortality
DensityDependent Mortality 89
5.5.3
5.5.3 Disease and Pest
Pest Mort ali ty
Mortality 90
90
vi -
-- vi -

5.5.4 Windthrow and Fire Damage


Windthrow 91
91
,
5.6 STAND VOLUME PREDICTION 91
91

5.6.1 stand Volume E4uations


Stand Equations Based
Based on
on Dominant
Dominant Height
Height and
and Basal
Basal Area
Area 91
91
5.6.2 Using Tree
Using Tree Volume
Volume Equations
Equations to
to Predict
Predict Stand
Stand Volume
Volume 92
92
5.6.3
5.603 EBtimation of
Estimation of Volume
Volume to
to aa Top
Top Diameter
Diameter Limit
Limit 92
5.6.4 of Thinning
Volumes of Thinning 93
93
5.7 ADVANCED TECHNIQUES
ADVANCED TEX:HNIQUES OF GROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION 93
5.7.1 Size Class Models
Models 93
93
5.7.2 Tree
Tree Position Models
Position Models 94

6. ANALYSIS OF GROWTH AND


AND YIELD
YIELD DATA
DATA FOR MIXED
MIXED FOREST
FOREST 95
6.1 SITE CLASSIFICATION 96
6.2 STATIC YIELD FUNCTION
FUNCTION FOR MIXED FOREST 98
6.2.1 General
General Principles 98
98
6.2.2 Data Analysis
Analysis Procedures 99
99
6.2.3 Methods
Methods of Selecting a Yield Equation
Equation 99
6.2.4 \-lith Static
Problems with Static Yield
Yield Models
Models in
in Mixed
Mixed. Forest
Forest 100
6.2.5 Conclusions
Conclusions regarding Static Yield
Yield Models
lr10dels in
in Mixed
Mixed. Forest 100
6.3 TRANSITION MATRIX MODELS
TRANSITION MODELS 101
6.3.1 Definition of a Transition Matrix
Matrix Model
Model 101
101
6.3.2 Methods
Methods of Constructing Transition Matrices
Matrices 102
6.3.2.1 Single
Single tree
tree data 103
103
6.3.2.2
6.}.2.2 Size
Size class data 103
6.3.3 Refinements
Refinements to Transition Models 05
1105
6.3.4 Disadvantages
Disadvantages of
of Transition
Transition Models 105
6.4 DISTANC~INDEPEND=
DISTANCE-INDEPENDENT TREE MODELS BASED
BASED ON
ON DIFFERENCE
DIFFERENCE EZUATIONS
EQUATIONS 106
6.4.1
6.4.1 Defini tion
Definition 106
6.4.2 D,ynamic Variables
Allometric and Dynamic Variables 106
6.4.3 Representation of Competition 106
6.4.4 Data
Data Requirements
Requirements and Approaches to Analysis 107
6.4.5
6.4.5 Basic
Basic Model
Model Structure 107
6.4.6 Ingrowth,
Ingrowth, Mortality
Mortality and
and Harvesting
Harvesting 108
6.4.7
6.4.7 Conclusions
Conclusions regarding
regarding Tree Models 108

7.
7, VALIDATION
VALIDATION OF
OF GROWTH
GROWTH AND
AND YIELD
YIELD MODELS
MODELS 109
7.1 THE
THE ROLE
ROLE OF
OF VALIDATION
VALIDATION 109
7.2 VALIDATION DATA 109
7.3
7.3 RESIWAL
RESIDUAL ERRORS 110

7.4 GRAPHICAL COMPARISONS 111


7.5 DEFINING
DEFINING THE
THE LIMITS
LIMITS OF
OF MODEL
MODEL UTILITY
UTILITY 112
- vii
- vii -

8. THE OF THE
THE APPLICATION OF THE MODEL
MODEL TO
TO THE
THE REWIRED
REJ:l,UffiEDETTA
END USE
USE 113
8.
8.11 INI'ROOOCTION
INTRODUCTION 113
8,2
8.2 EVEN-AGED STANDS
EVEN-AGED STANDS 113
8.3 MIXED STANDS
NIXED STANDS 114
FOREWORD
FOREWORD

There is probably little argument among forest


forest managers
managers that
that the
the ability
ability to
to estimate
estimate
the volume of trees and stands
stands and
and to
to predict
predict what
what the
the forest
forest will
will produce,
produce, onon different
different
sites, in response to particular
sites, particular types of
of silvicultural
silvicultural treatment,
treatment, isis central
central to
to all
all
rational planning processes connected
connected with
with forestry.
forestry. There is, is, however,
however, a considerable
considerable
diversity of opinions over what
what constitutes
constitutes "yield",
"yield", and how it
and how it may
may be
be estimated
estimated and
and
projected into
projected into the
the future.
future.

This manual
manual is an attempt
attempt to
to codify current
current practices
practices in
in the
the field
field of
of tree
tree and
and stand
stand
estimation and forest
volume estimation forest yield prediction in a way that
that is practicable
practicable and
and useful
useful to
to
is chanced
the person who is charged with the responsibility of producing volume estimations
estimations and
and
forecasts, but
yield forecasts, but perhaps
perhaps has
has not
not had
had the
the benefit
benefit of
of extensive
extensive experience
experience in
in this
this field.
field.

It must be aopreciated,
It a?preciated, however,
however, that
that this
this is
is aa field
field of
of human
human endeavour
endeavour that
that is
is
currently in
i n a state of rapid evolution,
evolution, especially with
with regard
regard to
to forests
forests growing
growing inin
environments. Consequently,
tropical environments. Consequently, all
all that is said
said in this manual must
must be
be regarded
regarded as
as
provisional
provisional and subject
subject to
to future
future refinement
refinement for
for particular
particular situations
situations that
that can
can arise,
arise, or
or
new techniques that can
can be
be developed,
developed, whilst
whilst other
other techniques
techniques may
may exist
exist which
which are
are not
not
referred to in
in this text
text and
and which
which may
may be
be superior
superior for
for particular
particular purposes.
purposes.

Thus it
it is not
not a manual
manual in the true sense;
sense; it
it is
is rather
rather aa set
set of
of guidelines
guidelines for
for the
the
choice of procedure combined with more precise instructions
instructions concerning calculation tech-
tech-
nique for some specified
specified cases.
cases.

The manual
manual is done with special
special reference to to the
the tropics
tropics and
and applies
applies to
to natural
natural as
as
well as manman made
made forests.
forests. Because of of the
the great
great difficulties
difficulties in
in assessing ~rowth and
assessing growth and
natural mixed and uneven aged
yield of natural aeed forests,
forests, the methods given
eiven to construct
construct growth
models, however,
models, however, mainly
mainly apply
apply to
to even
even aged
aeed forests,
forests. For mixed
mixed forests
forests no
no specific
specific
instructions are eiven
Eiven but rather some examples of possible waysways of dealing with
with the
the
problem ..
problem.

The manual consists of


of two
two volumes.
volumes.. The first
first volume describes techniques
techniques of
of
measurine
measuring trees and the assessment
assessment of volume of trees and stands,
stande, and the second volume
volume
deals with growth and yield prediction.
prediction. Descriptions of statistical and
and mathematical
mathematical
techniques,
techniques, selected statistical tables,
tables, blank copies of calculation and data recordine
recording
forms and an annotated biblioeraphy appendices.
bibliography are included in a series of appendices.

Volume II of the manual


manual has been written by Francis Cailliez,
Cailliez, Centre Technique
Forestier
Forestier Tropical
Tropical (GTFT),
(CTFT), Nogent-sur-lolarne, France, and
NogentsurMarne, France, and Volume
Volume II
II by
by Denis
Denis Alder,
Alder,
(cm, Oxford,
Commonwealth Forestry Institute (CFI), Oxford, Great Britain,
Britain, who also compiled the
appendices. The
The work ofof the
the two
two authors has been coordinated by Juran JBran Fries,
Fries, Swedish
University of kTicultural
Agricultural Sciences,
Sciences, Uppsala,
Uppsala, Sweden.
Sweden. The work
work was formulated and guided
guided
by Jean-Paul Lanly and
JeanPaul Lanly and Karn
Karn Deo
Ueo Singh
Singh of
of the
the Forest
Forest Resources
Resources Division
Division of FAD. Jean
of FAO. Jean
Clement (CTFT)
(CTFT) was associated at the initial
initial stage
stage of
of the study.
study.

The first
first draft of the manual was presented at at the meeting
meeting of
of the
the TUFRO
IUFRO Subject
Subject
Group S4,01
34.01 (Mensuration,
(Mensuration, Growth and Yield) held
held in
in Oxford
Oxford in
in September
September 1979, and
and was
was
discussed for one
one full
full day
day in
in detail.
detail. Among the participants there were tropical forest
forest
mensurationists especially invited by FAD to to make
make aa thorough
thorough and
and critical
critical review
review of
of the
the
cont~nts
contents of the manual. In addition,
addition, the manual was also sent
sent to a number
number of specialists
specialist s
for comments. Based on these remarks,
remarks, aa revised
revised version
version of
of the
the manual
manual was
was prepared
prepared by
by
the authors concerned.
ooncerned.

This manual,
manual, being the first of
of its
its kind
kind in
in the
the field
field of
of tropical
tropical forestry,
forestry, has
has con-
con-
siderable scope for further improvements
improvements and
and additions.
additions. Particularly
Particularly in
in the
the case
case of
of mixed
mixed
complementary studies
uneven aged stands further complementary studies are
are immediately needed. All
immediately needed. All suggestions
suggestions
in this respect will be very much appreciated.
appreciated.

14.A. Flores Rodas


M.A.
Assistant
Assistant Director-General
DirectorGeneral
For eatry Department
Forestry Department
- 11 --
-

11.• INTRODUCTION
THE PROBLE1>l AND YIELD
PROBLEM OF GROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION
PRIIDICTION

11.1
•1 REASONS
REASONn FOR PREDICTIM:
PREDICTING GROWTll
GROWTH AND
AND YIELD
YIELD

reasons for
In order to understand the reasons for the diversity
diversity of
of methods that
that are
are being
being used
used
for
for growth
growth and
and yield
yield prediction,
prediction, it
it is
is useful
useful to
to examine
examine in
in more
more detail why growth
detail why growth and
and yield
yield
is necessary.
prediction is necessary.

11.1.1
• 1• 1 Producti on Planning
Production

Effective forest
forest management
management involves
involves the
the use
use of
of treatment
treatment regimes
regimes for
for control
control of
of the
the
in such
growing stock in such aa way
way that
that the
the increase
increase in
in the
the economic
economic and/or
and/or social
social value
value of
of the
the
gruwing stock is
growing is more
more rapid
rapid than
than the
the interest
interest accumulating
accumulating onon the
the cost
cost of
of treatment.
treatment.

At
At the same time,
time, all
all harvesting operations
operations will
will deplete
deplete the
the future
future growing
growing stock
stock to
to
or lesser
a greater or lesser degree.
degree . Too heavy a rate of
of harvesting
harvesting will ultimately
ultimately liquidate
liquidate the
the
forest low a rate may both deprive
forest resource; too low deprive a community
community of
of immediate
immediate resources
resources and
and
reduce
reduce potential
potential growth in the forest for the future.
future.

Clearly, treatment and


Clearly, rational decisions about treatment and harvesting
harvesting intensity
intensity and
and timing
timing can
can
only be
be made
made if the response of
of the forest
forest to these
these operations
operations can
can be
be quantified.
quantified. Growth
are the
and yield studies are the means
means to
to this
this end.
end.

1.1.2 Silvicultural Research and Planning

Although the primary objective of growth and


and yield
yield studies
studies is
is probably
probably thethe quantifi-
quantifi-
of forest production
cation of production in
in response
response to
to treatment
treatment and
and harvesting,
harvesting, there
there is
is aa strong
strong two
two ·
way relationship between growth and yield studies and more
more qualitative
qualitative forms
forms ofof silvicultural
silvicultural
research.
research. It is a two-way
It relationship because:
two-way relationship

(i) The silviculture of a a species may determine the type of model


type of model that
that can
can be
be used
used
to predict its
its growth;
growth; and may
may permit aa logical
logical basis
basis for
for grouping
grouping species
species inin
complex forests.
complex forests. Important
Important silvicultural features of a species will suggest
features and relationships
relationships that
that must
must be
be included
included in
in aa quantitative
quantitative model
model if
if it
it
effective.
is to be effective.

(it) A quantitative model can be used,


A used, if it contains
contains suitable relationships,
relationships, to
to test
test
~xperimental designs
silvicultural hypotheses and to suggest experimental designa and
and treatments
treatments that
that
to provide
are likely to provide useful
usefUl results.
results.

11.1.3
. 1.3 Ecological
Ecolo cal Research and Environmental Management
Man ement

Quantitative models for growth and yield prediotion


prediction may interact
interact with thethe needs
needs of
of
ecological environmental planning
ecological research and environmental planning in
in several ways.
several ways. For exaJilple:
example:

(i) A forest model may


A may indicate
indicate the
the amount
amount of
of light
light reaching
reaching the
the forest
forest floor
floor at
at
different stages
stages of
of the
the growth
growth cycle.
cycle.

(it) A forest model may readily by adapted to show


A show the biomass and rate of
of production
tree crop.
of the tree crop.
- 2 -

(iii) The duration of the growth


growth cycle
cycle during
during which
which the forest
forest crop
crop is
is available
available to
to
large herbivores is important information
information for
for wildlife
wildlife management.

On the whole,
whole, ecological modelling
modelling uses rather
rather different
different techniques
techniques from
from those
those used
used
in
in growth and yield studies in in forestry.
forestry. This
This is because the latter has,has, of
of necessity, to
focus
focus upon a a very precise prediction
prediction ofof the
the geometric
geometric properties
properties ofof the
the crop;
crop; whilst
whilst in
in
ecology,
ecology, it is possible to deal with populations and levels of an ecosystem as a
with populations and levels of an ecosystem as a whole. whole.
Furthermore, ecological
ecological models
models tend
tend to
to concentra-te
concentrate on
on describing
describing or
or explaining
explaining thethe main
main
features of
qualitative features of an
an ecosystem;
ecosystem; aa high level of precision is rarely eithereither possible
or necessary. On On the
the other hand, forest models must be reasonably precise
hand, forest precise if
if they
they are
are to
to
justify their
justify their existence
existence and
and fulfil
fulfil their aim.
their aim.

The techniques of
of ecological
ecological modelling
modelling do
do provide
provide aa number
number of
of useful
useful points
points of
of contact
contact
with forest modelling:

(i) In mixed forest,


forest, species composition
composition can
can be
be modelled
modelled by
by ecological
ecological population
population
dynamics techniques.

(11) Where mortality, or loss


mortality, defect, or loss of
of growth
growth is
is attributable
attributable toto specific
specific diseases
diseases
or
or pests
pests of
of known
known etiology,
etiology, then this may be quantified as population dynamics
model
model in which habitat information
information is
is derived
derived from
from aa forest
forest growth
growth model
model and
and
tree growth is
is influenced by
by pest population
population levels.
levels.

In
In the
the future,
future, these points of
of contact
contact are
ar.e likely
likely to enlarge. In particular,
to enlarge. particular, the
increasing
increasing interest
interest in
in non-wood products from
nonwood products from forests
forests and
and the intractable problems
problems of
of complex
complex
mixed species and age forests
forests may be best accommodated by using modified forms
forms of ecological
ecological
cycle models.
energy flow/nutrient cycle models.

1 .2
1.2 THE ME'lHODOLOGY OF GROW'H!
METHODOLOGY GROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION

The methodology of growth and yield prediction may be thought


thought of as
as containing four
four
main phases,
phases, which are discussed in the following paragrapha
paragraphs..

1.2.1
1.2.1 The Estimation of Growth
Growth and Yield

The estimation of
of growth
growth oror yield
yield involves
involves two
two kinds
kinds of
of problem.
problem. One is the problem
of definition of
of What
what constitutes
constitutes yield.
yield. This may be the timber
timber volume
volume of
of the
the crop,
crop, or
or it
it
may be the timber volume
volume of
of aa particular
particular group
group of
of species,
species,ororititmay
maybebesome
somenon-timber
nontimber
product, such
such as bark, foliage,
foliage, resins,
reSins, etc..
etc.. The most common
The common emphasis
emphasis in
in tropical
tropical countries
countries
is on predicting volume and
predicting the volume and assortment
assortment of
of all
all wood
wood products,
products, including
including timber,
timber, pulpwood,
pulpwood,
poles and
and fuelwood.
fuel wood. Because
Because the
the species
species composition
composition affects
affects the
the utility
utility of
of the
the product,
yield cannot
cannot be considered
considered apart from
from species
species composition
composition inin mixed
mixed stands.
stands.

of yield and of
The measurement of of growth
growth is
is relatively
relatively easy
easy once
once appropriate definitions
definitions
been made. The main difficulties are
have been are practical ones
ones associated
associated with access to the
forest,
forest, demarcation and measurement of plots and the maintenance of permanent plots over
long periods of time. These problems are dealt with in Sections 22 and 3.
3.
- 33 -

1.2.2
1.2.2 The Construction
construction of
of aTdathematical
a Mathematical Model
Model and
and its
its Fjtting
Fitting to
to Growth
Growth and
and Yield
yield Data
Data

Once data is available, aa mathematical model


model can
can be
be constructed
constructed and
and fitted
fitted to
to this
this
data.
data. A
A mathematical model
model cansists
consista of
of sets
sets of
of equations
equations or
or graphs
graphs showing
showing the
the quantitative
quantitative
relationships
relationships between variables.
between the variables.

The process of fitting the


the model
model may
may be
be statistical,
statistical, using
using for
for example
example linear
linear regres-
regres-
sion,
sion, or it
it may be subjective, by drawing
drawing lines
lines through
through data
data plotted
plotted on
on grapbs.
graphs. Such hand-
hand:
subsequently expressed
drawn curves can be subsequently expressed as
as equations
equations if
if required.
required. Appendix A A of
of this
manual gives a number
number of
of methods
methods of
of curve
curve fitting.
fitting.

The types of curves drawn or


or equations
equations fitted
fitted may
may be
be based
based upon
upon some
SOOle natural
natural law
law of
of
growth, or
growth, may be empirical.
it may empirical. In the latter case, the function oror equation
equation is chosen
chosen
solely for
for its
its ability to represent aa particular
particular shape.
shape.

At
At the
the present time,
time, there is
is no genuine
genuine function
function for
for tree
tree growth
growth based
based upon
upon aa natural
natural
law, although there are some,
law, some, such as
as the Chapman-Richards function (described
ChapmanRichards function (described in Section 5)
in Section
which are partially
partially representative
representative of
of growth
growth processes.
processes.

1.2.3
1.2.3 Testing of the Model
Model for Validity

Once aa model
model has
has been constructed and fitted
fitted to
to data,
data, it
it must
must be
be tested
tested to
to determine
determine
its validity
its and precision.
validity and precision. Tbis
This is best done with aa second setset ofof data which was
data which was not
not used
used
to fit
fit any of the functions inin the
the model.
model. The model
model is
is used
used to
to predict
predict the
the behaviour
behaviour of
of the
the
stands which produced the
the test
test data
data and
and the
the results
results are
are compared
cOOlpared with
with the
the actual
actual Observations.
observations.
It
It is
is often
often necessary
necessary to
to repeat
repeat this
this process
process of
of validation
validation aa number
number of
of times,
times, with
with adjustments
adjustments
or corrections
corrections to the model as aa result
result of
of apparent
apparent anomolies
anOOlolies showing
shOwing up
up at
at each
each stage.
stage.

There are a
a number of reasons
number of reasons why models can
why models can perform
perform badly
badly when
when validated:
validated:

(i) The original data


data set
set may
may represent
represent aa different
different pattern
pattern of
of growth
growth behaviour
behaviour to
to
the test set.
set.

(ii) Inappropriate methods


methode of
of fitting
fitting the
the equations
equations may
may have
have been
been used
used in
in model
model
construction.
construct ion.

(iii) SOOle functions may be extrapolated during the


Some of the functions the test
test with
with the
the validation
validation
data into a region
region Where
where they
they are
are inaccurate.
inaccurate.

(iv) I
Iff the model involves a system of equations,
equations, it may becOOle
become unstable
unstable when
when treated
treated
as aa whole, even
even though
though each
each function
function separately
separately may
may fit
fit the
the data
data adequately.
adequately.

(v) There may be various kinds of


of human error
error during transcription
transcription or application
application
of
of the
the various or graphs.
various equations or graphs.

These points are spelt


spel t out
out at some
SOOle length in order
order to emphasise
emphasise the importance of
thoroughly testing
testing any
any model
model before
before applying
applyingitit to
toplanning
planningororrese,arch.
research. Section 6 deals
with model
model validation in detail.
detail.
- 44-

1.2.4
1.2.4 The Application of the
the Model
Model to
to the
the Required
Required Ehd-Use
EhdUse

l'Bsentially, the
Etsentiallyt the growth
growth and
and yield
yield model
model may
may be
be applied
applied in
in one
one of
of three ways:
three ways:

(i) table or
As a simple table or graph
graph or
or set
set of
of tables
tables or
or graphs.
graphs. These
These can
can be used by
forest
forest planners directly or
or can be fed in in in
in tabular
tabular form
fonn to
to aa computer
computer for
for
updating a set of inventory data.
updating a set of inventory data.

(ii) As
As aa programme
programme for
for aa computer
computer or
or calculator
calculator which
ldrlch can
can produce
produce aa table
table or
or graph
graph
of growth and yield
growth and yield for
for aa particular
particular set
set of
of treatments.
treatments. ThisThis is
is appropriate
appropriate
sufficient inherent
has sufficient
when the model has inherent flexibility
flexibility so so that
that it
it is
is not
not possible
possible
possible predictions
to define all possible prediotions inin ane
one set
set ofof tables.
tables.

(iii) As a computer
computer programme
programme which fonns ae.sub-,model
which forms su1Hnodel within
within aa larger
larger computer
computerprog..
prog-
ramme for forest planning
planning and which
ldrlch will
will usually
usually incorporate
incorporate aa data
data base
base of
of
inventory information
infonnation and various economic
econanic or
or technical
technical constraints
constraints onon harvesting
harvesting
and traatment operati ons.
treatment operations.
- 55 -

2. DESIGN OF fiELD
YIELD PREDICTION S'lUDIES
PREDICTION STUDIES

2.1 SPECIAL FEATUlill3


FEATURES OFOF RroRE5SION PARAMEl'ER ESTDIATION
REGRMSION PARAMETER ESTIMATION

Sampling or experimental designs


designs for
for growth
growth and
and yield
yield studies
studies should
should be
be conditioned
conditioned
of
by the type of model to be fitted to the data obtained. This is usually sane
to be fitted to the data obtained. some sort of
regression model.

The following points should


should be borne in
in mind:

(0
(i) When
When the model
model to be
be fitted
fitted is
is known
known to
to be
be linear in
in fonn,
form, then
then sampling
sampling oror
should be concentrated
experimental treatments should concentrated at
at the
the two
two extreme
extreme ends
ends of
of the
the
line. For a surface relating three variables,
variables, the four extreme corners
four extreme corners should
be sampled.

(ii) ~lore usually,


More usually, the
the precise
precise shape
shape of
of the function
function to be fitted is unknown and
likely to be somewhat curved. In this case, a
somewhat curved. a good practice is to break
break the
the
of the predictor variable into 5
range of equal sections and sample each
5 eaual each section
section
same intensity
at the same intensity (subject
(subject to
to (iii)
(iii) below).
below).

(iii) Sampling intensity in any part ofof the range


rangs should be proportional
proportional to the
variance of
of the
the samples
samples around
around the
the model.
model. This is is particularly
particularly relevant
relevant when
when
predicting volume, as
predicting volume, as discussed
discussed in
in Part
Part II of
of this
this manual.
manual.

(iv)
(kv) Randan
Random or systematic sampling byby area,
area which is most
moot appropriate for forest
forest
inventory, is inefficient as a
inventory, a basis for constructing growth and yield models,
models,
as it involves too high a sampling intensity in the central part
part of the range
of
of response and
and -Loo
too Iowan
low an intensity
intensity at
at the of response.
the extremes of

(v) In experimental
experimental designs
designs for growth and
and yield prediction,
prediction, extreme
extreme treatments
treatments
should always be incorporated, especially
especially with
with respect
respect to
to stand
stand density.
density. This
will add greatly
greatly to
to the
the accuracy
accuracy of
of the
the model
model which
which can
can be
be fitted_
fitted to
to the
the resul-
tant data.
data.

2.2 CONSTRUCTION
SAMPLING DESIGN FOR MODEL CONSTRUCTION

Sampling is
is an
an alternative to experimentation in situations where the the variables
variables
entering the
the model
model cannct
cannot be controlled by the research worker.
worker. In gromth
growth and yield studies,
studies ,
this pl"oviso principally to site
proviso applies principally site variation. Forest type cancan be controlled by selec-
of the experimental
tion of experimental area, or
or by
by establishment
establishment of
of the
the desired
desired type
type of
of forest;
forest; stand
density can be controlled by by silvicultural
silvicultural and
and harvesting
harvesting operations.
operations.

generally more efficient


Experiments are generally efficient and hence
hence less
less expensive.for
expensive .for aa given
given accuracy
accuracy
and precision of
of prediction than sampling.
sampling. However, both
both types of
of data
data are necessary
necessary if site
i f site
variation is to be effectively
effectively included
included in
in the
the model.

of harvesting
The real effects of harvesting operations
operations are
are also
also very
very difficult
difficult to
to simulate
simulate experi-
experi-
mentally and
mentally and must
muet usually
ueually be
be determined
detennined by
by aa sampling
sampling programme,
programme, carried
carried out
out shortly
shortly after
after
harvesting.
-- 66-
--

2.2.1
2°2'1 Temporary plots
2.21=ni=112tE
Temporary plots are
Temporary are primarily
primarily used
used for
for estimation
estimation of
of relationships
relationships which
which are
are not
not
time dependent.
dependent. However, this distinction
distinotion is blurred by the possibility of of determining
determining
tim~ependent relationships from
time-dependent relationships from annual ring information in situations
situations where these
these are
are
present.
present.

2.2.1.1
2.2.1.1 Forest inventory

inventory
Forest inventory designs are primarily determined to give an accurate estimate of
of
growing stock
forest growing stock in
in relation to
relation to land
land area.
area. However, much of the information gathered
may be useful
useful in
in growth
growth and yield
and yield studies.
studies.

of forest
The general subject of forest inventory design and analysis
analysis is
is covered in the FAO
of Forest
Manual of Forest Inventory.
Inventory.

It
It is generally
generally inefficient toto require
require the
the measurement
measuranent ofof parameters
parameters on
on all
all forest
forest
inventory plots
inventory plots that
that are
are only
only required
required for
for growth
growth and
and yield
yield prediction.
prediction. It is better
better to
to
of plots for more detailed measurement.
select a subset of

2.2. 1.2
2.2.1.2 Growth estimation
estimation from
from annual
annual rings
rings

Where clear annual rings


rings are present,
present, then studies
studies on temporary plots
plots can be
be used
used in
in
place of
of permanent
permanent sample
sample plots.
plots. In general
general,, the use of
of annual
annual rings
rings for
for increment
increment estima-
estima,-
tion is more difficult end
and more expensive
expensive than the
the use
use of
of permanent
pennanent sample plots.
plots . On the
other hand,
hand, results are
are Obtained
obtained much
much more
more quickly.
quickly.

2.2 . 1.3
2.2.1.3 smallag
Sa~pling for allcmetric
allometric relati,onships
relationships

is one
An allometric relationship is one between
between one
one measurement on
on a tree and another. For
another. For
example,
example, the relationship between crown diameter and bole diameter,
diameter, or
or between tctal height
betusen total
and bole
bole length.
length. Allometric relationships maymay be
be important
important in
in some models . The necessary
some models.
data is
is often not available in a suitable form
fonn from
frem a forest
forest inventory,
inventory, so
80 it beCCXi1es
bocones
desirable to carry
carry out
out aa sampling
sampling programme
programme to
to determine
detennine the
the relationship.
relationship.

The basic sampling unit


unit is usually the single
Single tree, although
although for convenience
convenience plots
may be laid
laid out
out and
and all
all trees
trees on
on the
the plot measured. The number of samples will depend upon
plot measured.
the relationship being
being studied.
studied. A good general procedure is to analyse the data as sampling
is
is being
being carried out
out and to terminate
tenninate sampling
sampling once
once the
the required
required degree
degree of
of accuracy
accuracy has
has been
been
obtained.
Obtained.

A tree volume
A volume tariff
tariff is
is aa particular
particular example
example of
of an
an allometric
allometric relationship.
relationship.

2.2.1.4 Sampling t
2. 2.1 4Sa_a_2_n to oefinimet
define parameters
ers of of harvesting operations
harvesting_afrations

Most
M.ost yield
yield prediction
prediction models
models accept
accept as
as inputs
inputs the
the fonnal
formal specifications
specifications for
for inter-
inter-
mediate or
or cyclic
cyclic harvesting
harvesting operations.
operations. It It is
is possible to assume that the operation will
out as specified,
be carried out specified, or it isis possible to carry out out aa sampling programme
programme to
to examine
examine
the relationship between
between the
the theoretical
theoretical specifications
specifications and and the
the actual
actual results.
results.
- 7-

will require
Additionally, most models will require information
information about
about the
the harvesting
harvesting treatment
treatment
covered by
that are not covered by the
the specifications.
specifications. For example, it isis usually necessary
necessary to know
know
diameter distribution
the diameter distrib.ution of
of removed
removed stems
stems or
or the
the relationship
relationship between
between the
the number
number of
of stems
stems
removed and the basal
basal area
area removed.
removed.

carried out
Sampling carried out shortly
shortly after
after harvesting
harvesting will
will provide
provide information
information an
on these
these
Alternatively, concealed
matters. Alternatively, concealed semi-permanent plots can
semipermanent plots can be
be set
set up which are
are measured
measured
before and
and after
after the
the harvesting
harvesting operation
operation to
to give
give an
an accurate
accurate determination
determination of
of trees
trees
removed.
removed.

A general feature of
A of these
these studies
studies is
is the
the need
need to
to use
use larger
larger sized
sized plots
plots than
than other
other
of study.
types of study. Typical figures would
would be:

Uniform forest 0.1 0.5


0. 5 ha

14ixed tropical
Mixed tropical forest
forest 55 10 ha

This is because real harvesting operations


operations tend to
to have
have very
very heterogeneous
heterogeneous effects
effects associated
associated
extraction tracks and
with extraction and loading
loading areas.
areas.

2.2.1.5
2.201.5 survey2
Regeneration surveys

In mixed tropical forests


forests or
or any
any other
other type
type ofof mixed
mixed age
age forest,
forest, or
or uniform
uniform forests
forests
being regenerated by
by direct
direct seeding,
seeding, estimates
estimates of
of regeneration
regeneration may
may be
be an
an important
important part
part of
of
aa yield prediction model.

surveys need
Plots for regeneration surveys need to
to be
be small.
small. They may be subplots within conven-conven-
tional forest inventory
inventory plots
plots oror they
they may
may be
be based
based an
on aa spearate
spearate sampling
sampling scheme
scheme carried
carried out
out
3-5 years after logging.
logging. Typically, thethe plots
plots are
are subdivided
subdivided into
into quadrats;
quadrats; on on each quadrat,
the presence or
or absence
absence of
of species
species is
is recorded.
recorded. Actual counts of of trees above a certain
certain
or height
diameter or height may also be made,
made, but
but do not
not ueually
usually add greatly
greatly to
to the
the usefulness
usefulness of
of the
the
information. Typical
Typical plot
plot sizes
sizes are 0.01
0.01 ha (10
(10 xx 10 m)
m) or 0.04
0.04 ha (20 xx 20
ha (20 20 m),
m), subdivided
subdivided
case into
in each case into 11 m2 or
or 44 m2
m2 quadrats.
quadrats.

2.2.2
2.2.2 Sample Plots
Permanent Sample Plots

foresters would consider


Most foresters consider the data obtained
obtained from permanent sample plots (PSPs)
(PSPs)
to
Lo be
be the most important contributor
contributor to
to aa growth
growth and
and yield
yield model.
model. Although this remains
true for many situations,
Situations, experiments must
must be considered asas a necessary adjunct
adjunct to
to introduce
introduce
extremes of treatment that are not found
found in
in the forest;
forest; whilst measurements on
on annual
annual rings
rings
provide an alternative
alternative to
to PSP
PSP measurements.
measurements.

2.2.2.1
2.2.2.1 Number of PSPs required

It is not possible to define


define the
the number
number ofof PSPs
PSPs required
required from
from purely
purely statistical
statistical
criteria. The precision ofof aa model
model fitted
fitted to
to PSP
PSP data
data will
will depend
depend upon
upon the
the location
location of
of plots,
plots,
and the duration of remeasurement as we1l
well as on the covariances of the various
as an various predictor
and coefficients
variables and coefficients in
in the
the fitted
fitted model,
model.

approximately 100
Experience suggests however that approximately 100 plots covering
covering the range of site
variation and stand
stand history may be sufficient
sufficient in aa given forest
forest type or plantation species,
species,
evidence for distinctively
unless there is evidence distinctively different growth
growth patterns
patterns on
on part of
of the geographic
range.
-- 8
8 --

2.2.2.2
2.2.2.2 of PSPs
Location of

Pennanent sample
Permanent sarnple plots
plots should
should be
be placed
placed with
with equal
equal frequency
frequency in:
in:

- poor sites
si tea
average sit es
sites
good sites

and
low density stands
- of average density
stands of
high density
density stands
stands
and
young
yaang or recently
recently logged
logged stands
stands
mid-rotation or
or midway through felling cycle
at age or
at rotation age or at
at the end
end of
of the
the felling
felling cycle.
cycle.

will probably
This will probably result
result in
in an
an area
area distribution
distribution for
for plots
plots which
which is
is quite
quite uneven,
uneven,
and appear to be proportionately
proportionately deficient
deficient in
in the
the average
average stands.
stands. However,
However, this
this is
is the
the most
most
of sampling
efficient method of sampling to
to estimate
estimate regression
regression parameters,
parameters, as discussed in section
as discussedin section 2.1.
2.1.

The type of
of stratification
stratification implied
implied above
above may
may not
not be
be possible,
possible, due
due to
to aa lack
lack of
of know-
know-
ledge of forest
forest growing conditions,
conditions, inin which case plots
plots may bebe laid
laid down
down systematically
systematically or or
using aa geographical
using geographical stratification
stratification toto give
give equal
equal area
area coverage.
coverage. In In this case, many more
plots will be required
required than i f the
than if the more
more effective
effective type
type of
of stratification
stratification described
described above
above is
is
used.

2.2.2.3 Size of PSPs

general, the size


In general, size of
of permanent
pennanent sample
sample plots
plots is
is governed
governed by
by forest
forest type
type and
and the
the
heterogeneity of
of stocking
stocking and
and species
species distribution.
distribution.

In mixed tropical forest,


forest, aa size
size of
of 11 ha
ha is
is usually
usually appropriate.
appropriate. This may conveniently
be divided into
into 100 10 xx 10
100 10 10 mm quadrats.
quadrats.

In unifonn forest, sizes


uniform forest, sizes around
around 0.05
0.05 ha are commonly
ha are commonly used.
used.

These figures may


may be
be varied
varied aa great
great deal
deal for
for different
different circumstances.
circumstances. For
For experi-
experi-
ments,
ments, larger sized plots are more nonnal.
normal. The table below
below gives
gives some
some details.
details.

PERMANENT
PERMANEVT PLOT SIZES

Forest type Mixed Unifonn


Uniform

Sarnple
Sample plots 1-2 ha 0.04-0.08 ha
Experiments
Experiments (excluding surrounds)
surrounds) 1-5 ha
1-5 0.01>-0.12 ha
0.08-0.12
Studies
Studies of
of real* harvesting operations
operations ha
5-10 ha 0.1
0.1 -- 0.5 ha

** As
As opposed to simulated
simulated operations,
operations, which
which come
corne under
under the
the category
category of
of experiments.
experiments .

These figures should


should not
not be
be treated
treated too
too rigidly.
rigidly.
- 99 -

2.2.2.4 Shape of PSPs

Generally speaking, PSPs may


may be
be either
either rectangular
rectangular or
or circular.
circular. In inventory,
inventory, other
shapes are used, e.g. crosses and clusters
used, e.g. clusters of
of circular
circular pl ots, which
plots, which have
have specific
specific advantages
advantages
for
for area sampling but
but are not particularly
particularly useful for
for PSFS.
PSRI.

Circular plots are faster to lay


lay out
cut than rectangular
rectangular plots for
for sizes
sizes below
below 0.1
0.1 ha
ha
stands, or
in open stands, or 0.05 ha in dense
ha in dense stands.
stands. Their use is also recommended in plantations
as not related
as effective area is nct related to
to the
the arrangement
arrangement of
of planting
planting rows.
rowe,

Rectangular plots are more appropriate for


for plot sizes
sizes greater
greater than
than 0.1
0.1 ha.
ha.

The ratio of length to breadth


breadth for
for rectangular
rectangular plots
plots can
can be altered
altered as required. On
as required.
steep topography,
topography, aa high ratio, up to 5
ratio, up 5 to 1,
1, is
is better,
better, with the
the length running
running up
up and
and down
down
slopes. On level ground, a square plot has aa smaller
the slopes. smaller perimeter
perimeter and
and will
will therefore
therefore be
be
easier to demarcate and measure.

2.2.2.5 Frequency and


Frequency and timing
timing of
of remeasurements
remeasurements

with which
The frequency with which PSPs
PSPs should
should be
be remeasured
remeasured depends
depends upon
upon the
the growth
growth rate
rate of
of
the trees. It
It is
is also useful to remeasure a new
new plot after
after aa shorter than normal interval
shorter than interval
order to benefit as
in order as rapidly
rapidly as
as possible
possibl e from
from the
the growth
growth data
data the
the plot
plot provides.
provides.

It should be noted that


that in
in general,
general, the
the longer
longer the
the interval
interval between
between remeasurements,
remeasurements,
the more accurately
accurately the
the tree
tree increments
increments can
can be
be determined.
determined.

organization responsible
In an organization responsible for
for aa large
large number
number of
of PSPs1 it is
PSPs, it is aa good
good idea
idea to
to
alternate remeasurements so that perhaps only one third of the plots
plots are measured
measured in
in any
any
one year.

Rerneasurement can be
Remeasurement intervals can be given
given approximately
approximately as
as follows:
follows:

Forest type Measurement interval (yrs)


interval (yrs)

Young plantations in
in
tropics 1

Older plantations or
other
ether uniform
uniform forest
forest
in tropics 2-4

Mixed tropical forest 3-5


Temperate uniform
forest 3-5
3-5

The timing of remeasurements


remeasurements should
should obviously
obviously take
take into
into account
account seasonal
seasonal effects.
effects.
If there is
If is a definite growing
growing season,
season, measurement
measurement should
should bebe carried
carried out
out after
after the growing
season is finished,
finished, as timing
timing is
is less criticial. In any case,
less criticial. should always
case, a given plot should
be measured
be measured in
in the same
same month
month When
when annual
annual measurements
measurements are
are made,
made, to
to allow
allow exact
exact one
one year
comparisons and
comparisons and increment
increment estimation.
estimation. With longer remeasurement
remeasurement intervals and less seasonal
climates,
climates, timing becomes less
less critical.
critical.
- 10
- 10 --

In some cases,
cases, timing
timing of
of measurements
measurements may
may be
be restricted
restricted by a c cess considerations
by access considerations or
or
seasonal availability
seasonal availability of
of labour.
labour.

2.2.2.6
2.2.2.6 Eamang
Sampling replacement
with partial replacement

Strictly speaking,
Strictly speaking, sampling
sampling with
with partial
partial replacement
replacement is
is an
an inventory
inventory design
design where
where
semi-pennanent plots
semi-permanent plots are
are used
used to
to supplement
supplement information
infonnation from
from temporary
temporary plots.
plots. However,
However, the
the
same
sane general concept can be applied to pennanent sample plots.
concept can be applied to permanent sample plots.

times aa PSP
The more times PSP is
is measured,
measured, the
the less
less information
information it
it provides
provides compared
compared with
with the
the
measurement , unless
previous measurement, it is
unless it is growing
growing into
into an
an age-site-stand
ag&-sit&-stand density
density stratum
stratum that
that has
has
been well
not been well sampled.
sampled.

For uniform age forests,


forests, two
two basic
basic sampling
sampling strategies
strategies arise
arise with
with PSPs:
PSPs:

(i) Plots are established


established through
through all
all age
age classes.
classes. In this case, sampling
sampling is more
efficient
efficient if aa proportion of plots is replaced after
after the
the third
third or
or fourth
fourth
remeasurements.
remeasurements.

(ii) Plots are established


established in
in young
young plantations
plantations anly
only (because
(because no
no older
older age
age classes
classes
exist).
exist). In this case,
case, aa proportion of
of the plots, say 30%, must be retained
say 30%, must be retained
tthroughout
hroughOut the
the rotation.
rotation. The remaining 70%
70% are
are replaced
replaced after
after 33 or
or 44
measurements .
measurements.

In mixed
In mixed forest, situation exists,
forest, an analogous situation exists, except
except that
that instead
instead of
of age,
age, ane
one is
is
concerned with the number
number of
of years since
since the
the last
last harvesting
harvesting aperation.
operation.

2.
2.33 EXPERDIENTAL
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS
DESINE

Experiments
EXperiments are the most efficient
efficient and useful Bource of data for constructing models
useful source models
of
of growth
growth and yield. However,
and yield. However, the usefulness of many experiments
experiments that
that have
have been
been laid
laid down
down
in forestry research is limited by a a failure to clearly envisage the mathematical
mathematical model
model that
that
the experiment is
is designed
designed. to
to test
test or
or parameterize.
parameterize.

Growth and yield studies are not


net primarily concerned with determining significant
significant
differences between
between treatments,
treatments, but
but with
with constructing
constructing response
response surfaces.
surfaces. It is also a common
It is cammon
error
error to
to assume
assume that
that long term
term forestry experiments
experiments can
can provide useful
useful solutions
solutions to problems
that origins in current and highly fluid economic
that have their origins conditions. It
economic conditions. It almost always
happens that by the time the experiment starts to provide useful data,
data, economic conditions
conditions
have changed so that the results are irrelevant.
irrelevant.

The solution to this problem is always to set up the experiments with the intention
of
of defining
defining general
general prinCiples,
principles, via a mathematical
mathematical model,
model, rather
rather than
than to
to select
select the
the 'best'
'best'
of
of aa set of treatments.
set of treatments.

Similarly,
Similarly, the parameters to be
be measured
measured should
should never
never be
be defined
defined in
in economic
economic terms,
terms,
but always in ecological
ecological or
or silvicultural terms.
tenns.

Short
Short tem
term experinl'ents
experiments that
that are
are defined in terms econanic parameters
terms of economic are necessary
parameters are necessary
for
for the costing of silvicultural treatments and determination
detennination of utilizable yields in rela.-
rela-
harvesting methods, but these matters are
tion to specific harvesting are outside
outside the scope
scope of
of this present
manual
manual..
- 11 -

The principal experimental


experimental designs
designs that
that are
are relevant
relevant toto growth
growth and
and yield
yield research
researoh
subdivided into
can be subdivided into randomized
randomized or
or systematic
systematic designs.
designs. The former can be be subject
subject to
to con-
analysis of
ventional analysis of variance, whilst the latter
latter are usually satisfactory when when regression
regression
prinCipal method
is the principal method of
of analysis
analysis and
and may
may be
be more
more economical
economical than
than randomized
randomized designs
designs to
to
out an
set out on the
the ground.
ground. Randomized designs can however also be analysed by by regression
regression and
and
are therefore
are therefore probably
probably to
to be
be preferred
preferred in
in all
all cases
cases except
except plantation
plantation spacing
spacing experiments.
expsriments.

2.3.1
2.3.1 Randomized Designs

A
A principal feature ofof randomized
randomized designs
designs is
is the
the allocation
allocation of of treatments
treatments to
to the
the
wi thin an
plots within an experiment
experiment by
by some
some random
random process,
process, usually
usually aa table
table of
of random
randan numbers.
numbers.

Another feature of
of randomized
randomized designs
designs is
is the
the principle
principle of
of replication.
replication. Any treatment
be applied
must be applied at
at least
least twice,
twice, on
on two
tliO different
different plots.
plots.

These two features


features are the common
common characteristics
characteristics of
of aa wide
wide diversity
diversity ofof experimental
experimental
designs, including fully
designs, including fully randomized
randomized experiments,
experiments, lattices,
lattices, latin
latin squares,
squareB, incomplete
incomplete blocks,
blocks,
Bplit plots,
split etc •• Standard textbookB,
plots, etc.. textbooks, Buch
such aB
as Snedecor (see
(Bee bibliography)
bibliography) cover
cover the
the analysis
analysis
and appropriate
and appropriate usage
usage of
of such
such designs.
deBigns. Dawkins, in
in his well
well known book
book of
of Statforms,
Statforms, gives
gives
calculation pro formes
fonnas for
for many
many such
such designs.
designs.

In growth and yield studies.


studies, probably only two
two randomized
randomized designs
designs are
are widely
widely appr<>-
appro-
priate. randomized block
These are the randomized block and
and the
the factorial
factorial experiment.
experiment.

2.3.1.1
2.3.1.1 block experiments
Randomized block experiments

The structure of
of a typical complete
complete randomized
randomized block
block experiment
experiment is
is illustrated
illustrated below.
below.

t2 b2 It4\t31t11t21
t4 t3 tlIt21
t1
It1 t4
b1 t3
b3 It2it4Itl t3
It21t41t11t31

The treatments, ><hich there


treatments, of which there may
may be
be any
any number
numbp.r (provided
(provided there
there are
are at
at least
least two),
two),
designated by
are designated by t1,
t1, t2,
t2, etc..
etc •• These
These are
aregrouped
groupedinto
intoblocks,
blocks,labelled
labelledb1,
b1,1)2,
b2, etc..
etc.. There
may any number
may be any number of
of blocks.
blocks. Each block
block contains
contains ane
one replicate
replicate ofof each
each treatment.
treatment.

aut so that the variations in site or forest


The blocks are laid out forest condition are
are small
small
within the blocks, compared to the variation between blocks.
blocks.

The plots wi thin a


within a block do not necessarily have to be physically adjacent,
adjacent, as
as shown
above,
above, but usually the plots are relatively
relatively close compared with the distance between blocks .
blocks.

The treatments are assignelto


assigned to each
each plot withina
within a block using a table of random numbers.
numbers.

An incomplete randomized block arises When


ßn when ane
ane or
or more treatments are not
not replicated
one or
in one or more
more blocks. This may be a deliberate feature of of design,
design, especially where
Where there
there
are large
large numbers
numbere of
of treatments,
treatments, or
or it
it may
may be
be the
the result
result of
of loss
loss of ane
one or more
more plots through
accidents. The analysis of variance of of an incomplete
incomplete randomized
randanized block experiment is somewhat
more complex than for a complete one,one, but as
as far
far as
as regression
regression studies
.tudies are concerned,
concerned, it does
great deal
not make a great deal ofof difference.
difference.
-- 12
12 --

In growth
growth and yield
yield experimentation,
experimentation, randomized
randomized block
block experiments
experiments are
are suitable
suitable for
for
where the
situations where the treatments
treatments do
do not
not form
form aa clearly
clearly defined
defined dimensional
dimensional continuum.
continuum. For
example, f the
example, iif the treatments
treatments comprise
comprise initial
initial spacing
spacing for aa plantation crop,
crop, then
then this
this can
can be
be
varied continuously
continuously and and factorial
factorial or
or clinal
clinal design
design is
is more
more appropriate.
appropriate. But if the treat-
ments are specifications for rainforest
rainforest harvesting framed
framed in
in terms
terms of
of species
species groups
groups and
and
different cutting
cutting limits
limits for
for different
different groups,
groups, then
then there
there is
is no
no clear
clear continuum
continuum between
between
treatments and aa factorial
factorial or
or clinal
clinal design
design cannot
cannot be
be used.
used. A A randomized block
block design isis
therefore most appropriate.
appropriate.

2.3.1.2 experiments
Factorial experiments

experiments are
Factorial experiments intended for situations
situations where the treatment
treatment consists
consist s of
of
two or more interacting
interacting factors.
factors. example, in a plantation
For example, plantation thinning
thinning experiment,
experiment, one
one
designate the
might designate the age
age of
of thinning
thinning and
and the
the intensity
intensity of
of thinning
thinning as
as two
two separate
separate factors.
factors.

Each level
Each level of
of aa factor
factor is
is combined
combined with
with each
each level
level of
of every
every other
other factor.
factor . Thus if
there are 3 levels
levels of
of one
one factor
factor and
and two
two levels
levels of
of aa second
second factor,
factor, there
there will
will be
be aa total
total
treatments.
of six treatments.

treatments should
All the treatments should be
be replicated
replicated at
at least
least twice.
twice. It
It is
is efficient
efficient to
to group
group
replicates into
the replicates into blocks,
blocks, as this
this allows the variation
variation betweenblocks
between blocks to
to be
be accounted
accounted for.
for.

Qualitative treatments such as for example


example pruning or no pruning,
pruning, can
can bbe
e included
included in
in
aa factorial as aa treatment
factorial experiment as treatment with
with two
two levels
levels -- present
present or
or absent.
absent.

Factorial experiments
experiments are well suited to studies in uniform forest
forest involving timing
timing
intensity of
and intensity of thinning, initial spacing,
spacing, pruning and the use of fertilizers
fertilizers and
and weed
weed
control.
control. They are more difficult
difficult to apply meaningfully in
in mixed
mixed forest
forest because
because of
of the
the
complex nature of
of the treatment definition and
and effects.
effects.

2.3.2 Designs
Systematic Designs

treatment locations are not


Systematic designs are those in which treatment not randomized,
randomized, but
but
laid out
are laid out in
in some
some systematic
systematic pattern
pattern to
to economize
economize an
on the
the size
size and
and cost
cost of
of the
the experiment.
experiment.
Systematic
Systematic experiments cannot
cannot be
be analysed by analysis
analysis of variance,
variance, but
but they areare very
very
efficient as a means of
of providing
providing data
data for
for regression
regression parameter
parameter estimation.
estimation.

The main application of


of systematic designs is towards
to'Wards spacing experiments
experiments in uniform
forest. In any situation where there is the slightest
forest. s l ightest doubt as to the likely outcome of the
the
experiment, e.g. fertilizer experiments,
experiment, e.g. experiments, aa randomized
randanized design
design should
should be
be used.
used.

For spacing experiments,


experimente, two basic design approaches are possible.
possible.

2.3 . 2.1
2.3.2.1 experiments
Single tree experiments

In the single tree systematic spacing


spacing design, the spacing
spacing varies between each
each tree in
a continuous
continuous fashion.
fashion. One well-known example is the Nelder
NeIder fan,
fan, in which trees are planted
out from
along radii going out fran a central point, with
with the distance
distance between
between trees along radii
radii
increasing a the same rate as the distance between radii. The general appearance is
illustrated below.
illustrated below.
- 13 -


,,
I

,l
I "
, ,~
" ,
, ,,
," ,,
.-

/
0 e-

1
---.--.----. e -o

NeIder fans are a little


Nelder fans little difficult
difficult to plan
plan and
and execute
execute on on the
the ground
graund and
and some
some equally
equally
effective rectangular designs are possible.
possible. The diagram
diagram below
below indicates
indicates one
one in
in which
which spacing
spacing
between trees
trees is
is increased
increased by
by half
half aa metre
metrefor
foreach
eachtreet,
tree, in
in both
both the
the vertical
vertical and
and horizontal
horizontal
direction.
direction. This plan has
has the advantage of testing all all combinations
combinations of of square
square and
and rectangular
rectangular
spacing and replicating
replicating each
each single
single combination
combination twice.
twice. By using a smaller
smaller increment
increment than t
than -1-
metre,
metre, a larger experiment
experimentisis obtained,
Obtainedt which
which is
is less
less likely
likely toto be
be affected
affected by
by the
the loss ofof
single trees.
trees.

, ... ,. ____ • ______ e ______ e __ - - - __ I


.11
' --1--
I - QII I I ~ e
:
'I
~ - _,_ - - - -,_ - - - - -
' ,
~_ - - - - - e ,
-I ________ •
,
e:
I i o ,
o
o

o
i
I
I'
i o II •I
,I I I o
• •
e
,_ --e
--1- 1 __ - - - e-
__ _ _lee e - __ - - - 1 - - - ____ .0
_I
, o o

" ,
;
I
o o

,
o
I o I I

;
o

I I I
o

___ ..>____-e
' I
-- ,.
a _____ ' , ' -- ---0--------·
I '

,
o
o
"O'''
o
'
i

,
o
o o

,
o

I I
I I
I I
I I
I I t I
..-.41,-...-;--.....0;..._
; ___ ~ __ - . ; ______ e_ - - ____
__I . ____ - --~
I!
: ' ,
I
:
,
,
,
,
,
'
I I I

,I ,
___ I
• ___ .1. ____ II ___ - I
- -0- - - - - - - •'

Single tree spacing experiments provide very useful data on the response of diameter
dimmeter
and crown diameter to spacing for uniform foresta,
forests, but the data is
is not easily
eaSily compatible
compatible
with that from conventional plots unless aa single
single tree modelling
modelling strategy has been adopted.
adopted.
experiments are also very
Single tree experiments very sensitive to the loss
loss of
of trees, which upset their
arrangement and
and design.
design.

2.3.2.2 Clinal
Curial plots

Clinal plots are those in which the treatments are arranged so


so that successive
successive levels
levels
are adjacent. The main advantage of
of clinal
clinal plots is
is the
the possibility
possibility of
of eliminating
eliminating the
the plot
surround except on the autside
outside of
of the experiment.
experiment. This isis illustrated
illustrat ed by
by the
the diagram
diagram below.
below.
- 14
14 -

<.' _..
...-,-,...;015....;:e.h.,k,,,-... ,....:-
- .'"
' -4. - - ---.....4,,,,,.;.A:t.A.,!..w,,;.
;

!t3
, 1
1

t5 t1
1
1

t5 t4 1
t2 i
ti
1
i
I
I

' -. '. ... ,.


..,:.-,1-Z,..ie:ftg*.0,,Z,V.,i,t,i.'!. ftt'I',1,1rit*I:5:Ff2g;,;.?"- .4.)..,:.. ..ii
i!'¡61,tV'T.:;:t".f..;;:izt.r.iv.,:te....:,:l ,, ',W '''.
.........'
-
,i:.;..,,.
' i . s' - ..0.7!Ms-5.4..f.:¡;-:
'. 0.`.6.4
1 1

t4
1

t3
1

ti t2 1 t3 1 1
t5
t5
1 1
1

AVAt., \
v'

plots
Treatment plots
4-40m --T.-420m
Guard rows
Guard rows

For spacing
For experiment~, it is usually desirable to have from
spacing experiments, from 55 to 8 treatments.
treatments. The
closest spacing
spacing should
should be
be either
either 22 xx 22 mmor 2t x 22t m, depending
or 2-i depending on on whether
whether a narrow crowned
species (e.g.
(e.g. Eucalypt or
or Pine)
Pine) or
or wide
wide crowned
crowned species
species (e.g.
(e.g. Gmelina
Gmelina arborea)
arborea) is
is involved.
involved .
The widest spacing should be 77 x 77 m m or 8 8 xx 8 m.
m. ItIt is very important to always incorporate
these two extremes,
extremes, as
as discussed in section
discussed in section 2.1.
2.1 .

Data from clinal plots can


can be
be combined
combined with
with other
other plot
plot data
data without
without difficulty.
difficulty. The
plots themselves are less sensitive to the loss
loss of individual trees than
than single tree
experiments.

2. 4
2.4 ElCAI~PLES OF GROimI
EXAMPLES GROWTH AND YIELD EXPERIMENTS
EXPERDIENTS

There are literally an infinite variety of ways in which experiments


experiments may be designed
executed to
and executed to provide
provide data
data for
for growth
growth and
and yield
yield prediction.
prediction. The main purpose of this
section is
is to present
present synthesized examples
examples of
of the most
most common types
types of
of experiment,
experiment, with
of their usefulness and the special problems of
some discussion of of execution
execution and analysis.
analysis.
There is here a wide divergence inin technique between methods for
for uniform forests
forests of
of a single
Single
mixed forests.
age and mixed forests.

2.4.1
2.4.1 Uniform Forests

Growth and
Growth and yield
yield studies
studies in
in uniform
uniform forest
forest have
have tended
tended to
to concentrate
concentrate on
on the
the effects
effects
of
of stand denSity, fertilization and
density, fertilization and pruning.
pruning. Fertilizer and pruning
pruning experiments
experiments will not
not
be considered directly in
in this manual as
as they
they are rarely
rarely relevant
relevant to
to the
the direct
direct problem ef
of
yield prediction.
prediction. Stand
Stand density
density is
is of
of primary
primary importance,
importance, as
as it
it is
is the
the major
major variable
variable which
which
the forester is able to control during
during the rotation of
of aa uniform
unifonn forest.
forest. There are four
basic ways in which the interaction
interaction between stand
stand density
density and
and growth
growth may
may be
:be studied
studied
exp erim ent ally.
experimentally.

2.4.1.1
2.4.1.1 Spacing experiments
experiments

may be laid
Spacing experiments may laid out
out either
either as
as single
single tree
tree experiments
experiments or
or as
as clinal
clinal
plots.
plots. The latter is probably a more useful type of experiment.
latter is probably a more useful type of experiment. Between 5
5 and 8
8 different
spacings may
may be
be used.
used. It
It is
is better
better to thin the plots to their final
final spacing in the second
- 15
15 -

or third year of
of growth than to plant directly
directly at
at the final
final spacing;
spacing; the latter approach
the latter is
approach is
too sensitive
sensitive to
to poor
poor survival
survival following
following planting.
planting. When the thinning to the final
final spacing
is
is carried
carried out,
out, it
it should
should be
be aa non-selective thinning to achieve
nonselective thinning achieve the
the desired
desired spacing,
spacing, not
not aa
low or crown thinning.

A
A spacing experiment should be continued
spacing experiment continued over
over the whole
whole of
of aa normal
normal rotation
rotation of
of the
the
crop. Once established, it should
should not be
be thinned.
thinned.

It
It is
is very easy to analyse
analyse spacing experiment
experiment data
data to
to provide
provide aa flexible
flexible growth
growth model
model
for the species in
in question. The details are
are discussed
discussed in
in section
section 55 of
of this manual.
manual.

2.4.1.2 Constant basal area thinning


thinning experiments
experiments

In aa constant
constant basal area thinning experiment,
experiment, plots are
are laid
laid out
out systematically
systematically oror
randanly
randomly and allowed to grow
grow until each
each plot
plot reaches
reaches its
its designated
designated basal
basal area.
area. ItIt is
is then
every one
thinned every one or
or two years
years to maintain the basal
basal area at
at the
the designated
designated level
level for
for each
each
plot.

Careful
Careful records
records must
must be
be kept
kept of
of the
the number
number of
of trees
trees removed
removed and
and the
the basal
basal area
area removed
removed
if this type of
of experiment
experiment is
is to
to be
be very
very useful.
useful.

Analysis
Analyuis is more difficult
difficult than for aa spacing experiment
experiment and
and involves
involves the
the fitti ng of
fitting of
predicting basal area increment
a model predicting
a increment as a function of
of basal area and other variables,
variables, for
example age
age and
and stocking.
stocking.

strategy for constructing


As a strategy CQlstructing a dynamic
dynami c thinning experiment,
experiment, this
this approach has
has the
the
of simplicity
advantage of simplicity of
of design,
design, although the execution may notnot be so easy,
easy, BS
as careful
careful and
continuous record
record keeping
keeping is
is required if the
required if the results
results are
are to
to be
be fully
fully useful.
useful.

2.4.1.3
2.4.1.3 Thinning experiments using
Thinning using graded
graded thinning
thinning treatments
treatments

In this
this type of experiment,
experiment, aa number of thinnings
thinnings are
are defined (typically 4), which
defined (typically whic h
differ from each
each other
other in
in terms
tenns of
of both
both timing
timing and
and intensity
int ensi ty of
of thinning
thinning and
and possibly
possibly in
in
terms of
of initial spacing
spacing also.
also. These treatments can
can be
be roughly
roughly classified
classified from
from light
light
thinning to
thinning to heavy
heavy thinning.
thinning.

of experiment
This type of experiment is
is very
very similar
similar to
to aa constant
constant basal
basal area
area thinning
thinning experiment
experiment
in tenns record keeping.
terms of analysis and record keeping. Records must
must be kept ofof the numbers and basal
basal area
area
of stems removed
removed at
at each
each thinning.
thinning. Analysis cancan be by
by several
several methods,
methods, the
the best
best of
of which
which is
is
the fitting
fitting of
of a predictive model of diameter or
of diameter or basal area increment
increment as a function
function of basal
basal
stem numbers, age,
area, stem age, etc.
etc.

The principal advantage over a constant basal area experiment is that


that the thinnings
thinningu
used are treatments which might be used in
in reality,
reality, allowing costing of
of thinnings,
thinnings, thinning
damage, windthrow risk and effects on
damage, windthrow on wood quality
quality to be assessed on
on the experiment.
experiment. Addi-
tionally,
tionally, thinning need not be performed so frequently
frequently as an
on the constant basal area experi-
ment, simplifying
simplifying administration.
administration.
- 16
- 16 -
-

2.4.1.4 Factorial experiments


experiments with
with different
different components
components of
of thinning
thinning treatment
treatment

A thinning
A thinning treatment in
in aa uniform
uniform forest
forest can
can be
be broken
broken down
down into
into aa number
number of
of compo-
compo-
nel'lts, viz:
nents, viz:

ini tisl spacing


initial
first thinning
age of first
proportion of stocking removed at
at each thinning
time to elapse
elapse between
between each
each thinning.
thinning.

other variations are


Other are possible,
possible, as
as for
for example
example the
the basal
basal area
area at
at first
first thinning
thinning and
and
or the
at subsequent thinnings, or the use
use of
of height
height instead
instead of
of age.
age.

experiment is
When the experiment is designed
designed in
in this
this way,
way, it
it can
can be
be set
set out
out as
as aa factorial
factorial experi-
experi-
by assigning
ment by assigning aa number
number of
of levels
levels to
to each
each thinning
thinning component.
component.

The result will be


be aa large
large experiment,
experiment, with
with aa considerable
considerable number
number of
of treatment
treatment plots,
plots,
in the analysis
but in analysis it
it is
is possible to separate
separate the different effects
effects of thinning age,
age,
thinning
thinning intensity, etc..
etc.. Obviously the large number
number ofof treatments
treatments means
means that
that very
very careful
careful
administration is
is required,
required, whilst the factorial
factorial nature of the the e~eriment
experiment may
may bebe easily
easily
upset by accidental occurrences
occurrences such
such as
as fire
fire or
or disease
disease outbreak.
outbreak.

2.4.2
2.4.2 Mixed Forests

The main function of


of experiments
experiments in
in mixed
mixed forest
forest is
is to
to provide
provide aa controlled
controlled degree
degree of
of
disturbance of
of the forest
forest so
so that
that ultimately
ultimately aa model
model may
may be
be fitted
fitted relating
relating the
the increment
increment of
of
trees to the various parameters
parameters ofof the
the stand
stand following
follOwing treatment.
treatment.

A common problem with


A with experiments
experiments laid
laid down
down in
in mixed
mixed forest
forest isis that
that the
the treatments
treatments
are specified in terms which are irrelevant
irrelevant to the main parameters
parameters ofof the stand
stand that
that control
control
growth. This isis discussed
discussed at
at length
length and
and with
with numerous
numerous examples
examples by
by Synott
Synott (see
(see bibliography).
bibliography).
However, aa typical case
case would
would involve
involve the definition of
of four
four treatments as for example:
example:

1 - Log all merchantable species


speCies down to 30 cm
em
22 - poison or
As for 1, but poison or ring-bark
ring-bark all
all non-merchantable
non-merchantable species
species down
down to
to 30
30 cm
em
33 - As for 2, but killing non-merchantable stems down to 10 cm
em
4 - 3, but removing
As for 39 remOVing merchantable
merchantable species
species down
down to
to 20
20 am.
em.

The effect
effect of treatments
treatments defined in this
this way upon the stand will will depend
depend entirely
entirely upon
upon
condition of
the condition of the
the stand
stand prior
prior to
to logging,
lOgging, its
its size
size class
class and
and species
species class
class distribution.
distribution.
It is possible for
for the most severe
severe treatment
treatment (e.g.
(e.g. 44 above)
above) to
to have
have the
the least
least effect.
effect.

other
Other problans
problems have arisen by selecting only aa subset of trees
trees for increment
increment measure-
measure-
ment, on
on the basis of
of merchantability
merchantability criteria
criteria which
which have an
an unfortunate tendency to change
during the
during the intervals
intervals between
between plot
plot measurements.
measurements. The method
method of
of measuring
measuring increment
increment has
has often
often
been unable to cope with
with the development
development of
of buttresses.

At
At the
the moment,
moment, growth and yield research in mixed tropical
tropical forests
forests is developing
rapidly. The following recommendations are made therefore simply to help avoid the mistakes
mistakes
of the past
past and not
not in order to impose aa strait-jacket of unnecessary regimentation on
current work.
work.
-17-
17

2.4.2.1 Randomized block design


design

It is
is suggested that
that aa randomized
randomized design,
design, with
with rePlication,
replication, should
should always
always be
be adopted
adopted
mixed forest
in mixed forest experiments.
experiments. The replicates should be blocked
blocked with
with site
site and
and species
species distri-
distri-
bution patterns, as well as past logging history,
history, as
as uniform
uniform as
as possible
possible within
within blocks.
blocks. This
This
careful preliminary survey of the experimental
implies a careful experimental area.
area

2.4.2.2
2.4.2.2 Treatment
Treatment definition

should be defined in terms


Treatments shauld terms of total
total basal
basal area
area toto be
be left
left after
after logging
logging
and/or poisoning
poisoning or
or girdling,
girdling, of
of trees
trees above
above aa minimum
minimum size
size of
of 10
10 cm.
em.

other definitions of treatment


Other treatment are possible,
possible, but
but should
should always
always be
be made
made in
in terms
terms of
of
the remaining stand and not
not the material
material to be
be removed and
and should
should be
be independent
independent of
of economic
economic
criteria.

extremes, one
The treatments adopted should always include two extremes, ane being
being an
an undisturbed
undisturbed
stand and the other being an
an extremely severe treatment,
treatment, perhaps
perhaps removing
removing all
all material
material over
over
10 cm diameter.
em diameter.

2.4.2.3 Measurementsand
Measurements and plot design
0..2-1.2[1221En

are required
Large plots are required for
for experiments
experiments involving
involving felling
felling treatments.
treatments. Typically a
200 xx 200 m
m plot (4 hal with
(4 ha) with aa 100
100 mm surround
surround is necessary. On
is necessary. On the main
the main plot,
plot, all large
(say over
trees (say over 30
30 cm)1
em should
should be
be mapped.
mapped. Subdivision of the the plot
plot into 20 xx 20 m m quadrats
is
is desirable and allows local
local competitive
competitive effects
effects to
to be
be included
included into
into models
models of
of growth,
growth,
regeneration and
and mortality.
mortality.

Detailed counts
counts of
of seedlings
seedlings can
can be
be made
made on
on aa systematic
systematic subsample
subsample of
of quadrats.
quadrats .

The methods of
of increment
increment measurement
measurement are
are discussed
discussed in
in section
section 3.
3.
- 19
19 -

3.
3. PROCEDURES FOR DATA COLLECTION
COLLECTION AND
AND PRIMARY
PRIMARY ANALYSIS

3.1
3.1 SAMPLE PLOT DEMARCATION

3.1.1
3.1.1 Location

Permanent sample plots, in


in particular, need
need to
to be
be accurately
accurately located
located onon forest
forest maps
maps
and their precise
precise Position
position in
in the forest
forest determined through the
the use
use of
of survey tape
tape and
and
compass. In addition to recording
compass. recording positions on
on maps, it is helpful
it is helpful to
to place
place stone
stone or
or con-
con-
on nearby forest
crete markers on forest roads
roads showing the bearing and distance
distance to
to the
the plot
plot from
from the
the
marker.

Temporary plots also need to be located on working maps,


maps, but
but the
the degree
degree of
of precision
precision
required is
required is not
not usually
usually so
so great.
great.

Design prinCiples relating to plot location


principles relating location are
are discussed
discussed in
in section
section 2.2.
2.2.

3.1.2
3.1.2 psp
PSP Identification on
on the Ground

be permanently
PSPs must be permanently marked
marked on
on the
the ground.
ground. Circular plots should
should be
be marked
marked at
at
the plot centre with a post of
of durable wood,
wood, concrete or metal
metal bearing the
the plot
plot identifi-
identifi-
cation number. This central point should also be indicated by by digging
digging intersecting
intersecting trenches
trenches
long, with the point of intersection
50 cm deep and approximately 2.5 metres long, intersection being
being the
the plat
plot
centre. This provides a permanent mark
mark on
on the
the ground
ground in
in the
the event
event of
of the
the plot
plot centre
centre post
post
being lost
being lost or
or stolen.
stolen.

Rectangular plots should similarly


Similarly be marked at the four corners
corners with posts,
posts, one
one of
of
which carries the
the plot
plot identification
identification number.
number. Trenches should
should be dug to intersect at
at the
the
corner post positions.
positions .

The plot
plot identity should also be prominently painted on aa tree
tree near
near to the
the centre
centre or
corner post
a corner post bearing
bearing the
the plot
plot identity.
identity.

Rectangular plots subdivided into quadrats may also have smaller posts
posts placed
placed at
at the
the
intersections. These should be of a different size to the
quadrat intersections. the corner posts
posts to
to avoid
avoid
confusion. Alternatively, quadrats
quadrats may
may be
be resurveyed
resuzveyed at
at each
each measurement.
measurement.

3.1.3 Determination of Eage Trees


Determination ilf_Edgf_Trees

trees will
Most trees will be
be either
either clearly
clearly within
,Jithin the
the plot
plot or
or clearly
clearly outside
outside it.
it. Some will
will
intersect with
with the plot edge.
edge. These should be be included iif
f the estimated
estimated centre
centre of
of the
the tree
tree
is
is inside the line demarcating the plot and excluded otherwise.
otherwise.

edge of
The edge of a circular
circular plot is
is determined
determined by
by using
using aa line
line or
or rope stretched from the
centre post. Care should be be taken that
that the line does not
not have Significant
significant elasticity (many
lines are
light nylon lines are very
very elastic)
elastic) or
or become wrapped
wrapped around
around the
the centre
centre post whilst
whilst working
working
round the
round the plot.
plot.

shows radii
The following table shows radii (i.e.
(i.e. distance
distance from
from plot centre
centre post to edge)
edge) for
for
of circular
common plot areas of circular plots.
plots.
- 20
- 20-_

Plat
Plot area (ha)
(ha) Radius (m)
(m)

0.04 11.28
11.28
0.05
0.05 12.62
12.62
0.08 15.96
0.10 17.84
With small rectangular
rectangular plots,
plats, the ~e may
the edge may be
be determined
determined by
by taking
taking aa line
line of
of sight
sight
between two
between two corner
corner posts.
posts. With larger plats
plots with intervening vegetation,
vegetation, it
it will
will be
be neces-
neces-
sary to insert extra
extra edge
edge markers
markers along
along aa bearing
bearing between
between the
the corner
corner posts.
posts. Small
Small vegetat ion
vege±aticn
judiciously removed
may be judiciously removed along
along the plat edge,
edge, provided one is not destroying regeneration
forms part
that forms part of
of the
the forest
forest growing
growing stock.
stock.

3.1.4
3.1.4 Marking Trees

Trees
Trees on permanent plots
plats should
should if
if at
at all
all possible
possible be
be permanently
permanently identified.
identified. There
two ways
are two ways of
of doing
doing this:
this:

1. By painting
By painting the
the identity
identity number
number on
on the tree
2. By using
By using embossed
embossed aluminium
aluminium tags
tags nailed
nailed to
to the
the tree.
tree.

f the tree number is painted on


IIf on, then the measurement
measurement point
point for diameter
diameter should
should also
also
be marked
be marked by
by painting
painting aa ring
ring around
around the
the tree.
tree. IIf
f an
an aluminium tag is used it should be
nailed to the tree a fixed distance above the diameter measurement point,point, usually 50 cm
em
so that the
above, so the latter
latter can
can be
be exactly
exactly relocated.
relocated. The reference point for diameter
is of
measurement is of course
course normally
normally at
at 1.3
1.3 mm initiallyy
initially, except
except for
for buttressed rainforest
rainforest
trees, but may
trees, may change
change as
as ground
ground level
level alters
alters over
over time.
time.

An aluminium tag should also be nailed to the stump of the tree,


tree, close to ground l""el.
level.
identify cut
This helps to identify cut stumps
stumps and
and gives
gives added
added security
security against
against loss
loss of
of tags.
taga.

Pbint
Paint markinga
markings should not be used as the sole means
means of identification with species
species
(e. g. many Eucalyptus
that shed their bark (e.g. species). ~larlcinga
fucal;yptus species). should be renewed at each
Markings should
remeasurement where they are becoming worn or
or have been lost.
lost.
3.1.5
3.1.5 Mapping Trees
Mapping Trees on
on the
the Plot
Plat

If possible, on aa plot
possible, trees on plat should
should be
be mapped
mapped at
at the
the initial
initial assessment.
assessment. For circular
plots, record the distance and
and bearing
bearing of
of each
each tree
tree from
from the
the plot
plat centre.
centre. For rectangular
subdivide the plot
plots, subdivide plat into
into quadrats,
quadrats, each
each of
of which
which is
is not
nat more
more than
than 10
10 mm by
by 10
10 mm and
and
of the
then measure the distance of the tree
tree from
from the
the two
two quadrat
quadrat boundaries. Record these dis-
of the
tances as the coordinates of the tree
tree within
within the
the quadrat.
quadrat.

Mapping trees
Mapping trees is
is helpful
helpful both
both in
in resolving
resolving the
the frequent
frequent confusion
confusion over
over tree
tree identities
identities
that occurs
that occurs and in the analysis of
of growth
growth phenomena
phenomena an
on the
the plot.
plat.

3.1.6 Identity Numbers


Numbers for Ingrowth

In
In natural
natural forests,
forests, ingrowth present at each
each assessment will
will need to be given
given anan
identification number, a quadrat
quadrat number
number and
and coordinates
coordinates onon the
the plot
plat map.
map. Great care
care isis
necessary to
necessary to ensure
ensure that
that the
the identity
identity number
number given
given is
is not
not one
one previously
previously assigned
assigned on
on that
that
plat, have died
plot, including trees that have died or
or been
been removed
removed at
at an
an earlier
earlier stage.
stage. Otherwise
otherwise great
great
confusion results when the data
data is
is processed.
processed.
-- 21
21 -
-

3.2
3.2 SAMPLE PWT
PLOT MEASURU!ENT FOmlS AND
MEASUREMENT FORMS AND PRIMARY
PRIMARY ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS

3.2.1
3.2.1 Uniform
Uniform Forests
Forests

Sample plots in even-aged,


even-aged, monospecific forests
forests (normally
(normally plantations)
plantations) require
require
measurement of:
measurement of:

1. Diameter over bark


bark at
at 1.3
1.3 m, using aa girth
m using girth tape
tape calibrated
calibrated inTrom
inlTcm units,
units, on
on each
tree.

2. on aa systematic
Tree heights on systematic sample
sample of
of 88 trees,
trees, together
together with
with heights
heights of
of dominant
dominant
trees not included
included in
in the
the sample.
sample.

Dominant height isis defined


defined as
as the
the mean
mean height
height of
of the
the 100
100 thickest
thickest stems
stems per
per ha.
ha. Thu2
Thus
the number
number of
of trees
trees required
required for
for dominant
daninant height
height estimation
estimation is
is the
the plot
plot area
area times
times 100.
100. For
example,
example, on a plot
plot of 0.04 ha, 4 trees are required. TreesTrees with
wdth broken
broken or significantly
damaged tops are
are not
not used
used in
in height
height sampling.
sampling.

Additional characters
characters can
can be
be noted
noted on
on each
each tree.
tree. Disease problems,
problems, dying trees,
trees, wind
wind
or insect
insect damage and trees marked
marked for
for thinning
thinning can
can be
be recorded.
recorded. Such additional
additional notes
notes should
should
be coded in aa rigidly
rigidly standardized
standardized way
way and
and entered
entered anon the
the plot
plot record
record form.
form. The following
may be
coding suggestions may be adopted:
adopted :

Code Description

entry
no entry unmarked for
Tree healthy, undamaged, unmarked for thinning,
thinning, single
single non-defective
non-defective
stem.

A
A damage.
Animal damage.

B broken by
Tree broken by wind.
wind.
D Disease problem.
Disease problem.
L or multiple leader
Double or laader or
or stems.
stems.
M marked for
Tree marked thinn~ng (but
for thinning (but still
still standing).
standing).
S dying from
Tree dying from suppression.
suppressi on.
T felled (may
Tree has been felled (may be
be measured
measured on
on the
the ground).
ground).
W leaning or
Tree leaning or fallen
fallen from
from wind
wind damage.
damage.
X
X Tree dead.
Tree dead.

Following the letters,


Following letters, numeric codes
codes can
can be
be placed
placed indicating
indicating the degree of severity
of the problem. The following is suggested:
following scale is suggested:

1 Damage/disease pres
Da.mage/disease ent but
present but very light.
very light.

2 J40re severe
More severe damage
damage -- is
is likely
likely to
to significantly
significantly reduce
reduce growth
gro.rth or
or
impede utilization.
impede utilization.

33 Very severe damage/disease. or make it


Likely to kill tree or it
unutilizable.
- 22 -

other can be
Other codes can be introduced
introduced for
for specific
specific problems.
problems. The important point is that for for
to be
such a system to be of
of any
any use,
use, it
it must
must be
be rigidly
rigidly adhered
adhered to
to without
without alteration
alteration or
or omission
omission
over many years.
many years.

Form 3.1
3.1 is shown
shown as
as a recording
recording form
form for
for this
this type
type of
of plot.
plot. It is specifically
specifically
designed to facilitate
facilitate automatic
automatic data
data processing.
processing. Field entries
entries should
should be
be made in
in soft
soft
pencil with arubber
a rubber being used to ranove error8~
remove errors.

The primary variables calculated


calculated on
on aa plat
plot are:
are:

1. Stocking
Stocking per ha (N). Divide the total number of
ha (N). of live trees on
on the plot by
by plot
plot
area.
area. From the example entered
entered in
in form
form 3.1:
3.1: '

N 9 / 0.04
N = 9 0.04 =
= 225 stems/ha.

2. Diameter of
Diameter of the
the mean
mean basal
basal area
areatree
tree(D(Dg)
g ). Sum the diameters squared and divide
by the
by the number
number of
of trees
trees on
on the
the clot.
plot. Take the square
square root
root of
of the
the result.
result. For
example:
the example:

~d2
2-,d2 = 16237
Dg
D = ,/F6237
-/(16237 // 9)
9)
=
= 42.5 cm.

3. Ho' This
height Ho.
Stand dominant height This is the
the mean
mean height
height of the
the specified
specified number
number of
of
dominant trees on
on the plot.
plot. For the example,
example,

Ho = (32.1 + 29.6 + 30.8 + 33.1)/4


=
= 31.4m.
31.4 mo

4. height H. This is the mean of


Stand mean height of the systematic
systematic sample
sample of
of height
height trees
trees
or as
as in the example an
on form 3.1,
3.1, the
the mean
mean of
of all heights. In the example,
all heights. example,

H
H = 31.7 m.
31.7m.

5. Stand volume
Stand volume V.
V. This is usually calculated
caloulated from
from an individual
individual tree
tree volume
volume tariff
tariff
by diameter
entered by diameter and
and height.
height. There are two methods;
methods:

(0
(i) Calculate
Calculate the
the volume
volume of
of the
the tree
tree of
of diameter
diameter Dg
D and height H
H and then multiply
multiply
by stocking
by stocking NN to
to give
give volume
volume in m3/ha.
in m3/ha.

(ii)
(ii) Calculate
Calcula-te individual
individual tree
tree volumes
volumes vv from
from diameter
diameter d and height h. these
Sum these
volumes and divide by plot area to give volume per ha. ha.

In
In this
this second
second case,
case, if hh is not known
is not known for
for all
all trees,
trees, either estimate
estimate it
it
from a (c.f. section 3) or use
a height/diameter regression (c.f. H instead.
use H

Both methods introduce


introduce an error
error into
into volume
volume estimation.
estimation. The first
first ane
one has an error
error
may result
that may result from
from the distribution
distribution of
of diameters
diameters and
and the
the second
second one
one from
from the estimation
estimation
of heights. The second method is generally
generally preferable ' for accuracy,
accuracy, especially
especially if volume
is
is being
being estimated to aa merchantable top diameter limit.
limit.
-23-
- 23 -

Form 3.1
Form 3.1 Sample
Sample Plot Assessment
P16~ Assessment Form -- Plantations
Sheet ...of...
• •• of. ••

Forest
Forest District
District Compartment
Compartment Plot number Species

1110131
/

Plot
Plot
3 101012.1
o o
Slope
II 1a.IA 1 11.13 Iq9 1+1
Assessment
2. 2_ I
rn Office
Office
use

area f o Is I NEI 00 date 1119


iI 9 I -
2 j

month year no. of


no. of
cards
Tree no.
no. Diameter bhob Height - -- -- -- Codes
- Codec - - - - -
I I 3 q r4- 2- g b
t7
I 10 4- 3 I 3 2- I
I¡3
3 3 b 4- B 3
~
I 6 4- 'g 5 Z 9 b
I/ <i
9 4- (, 4- ~ e> g

2. I 2-
" "
4- I I
1..4- :> 'il I 3 4- 2.
4 2- g '8'
4-
9 4- I.i- 'j
'3

"' "3 I

Notes
~-<Q.cI.
.t.ead
.. .::~
•• I."!...
.. •• • ~.~ ~.;J. !"J.,,!~':'d>
.":"::1. • .. .. r. ...~'!>.K.~ .~ ':t.~
e oeop000t oeoe.00tneoo0000o0OOO *co ono 00000* 000"0 00.0000a>o 0000.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. ..

.. . .. . . . . . . . 00470000
.00000000Un .
. . . . . .. . 0.00 .
. . .. . . . . .. . . 0000000004.06000
. . .. 0000000000 . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . .. .. .. pn
.. .. .. .e .000
.. .. ..000
.. .. 0000
.. .. . . 0..
Assessed by •• ~>~~...........
by ... ... Date
Date •• 3./ ..1- ./. ~1
BACK dF
USE BACK OF FORM
FORM FOR
FOR HEIGHT
HEIGHT CALCULATIONS
CALCULA TI ONS
==_

- 24
24-

volumes may
Several different volumes may be
be calculated,
calculated, using
using different
different volume
volume equations.
equations. For
example:

Vob
Vob
Over bark total volume (i.e.
(i.e. to
to the
the tip
tip of
of the
the tree).
tree).
Vub Under bark
Under bane total
total volume.
volume.
b
V
V7
7 Volume to 7 em
cm top diameter limit.
diameter limit.

V15
V15 to 15 cm top diameter
Volume to diameter limit.
limit.

The various
va.rious symbols
symbols and
and units
units used
used for
for primary
primary stand
stand variables
variables are
are listed
listed in
in Table
Table
3410

Table 3.1
Table 3.1

SYMBOl.'l FOR
SYMBOLS FOR PRIMARY
PRDlARY STAND
STAND VARIABLES
VARIABLES

Symbol Description Units

A
A from planting
Stand age from planting years

Dg Diameter of
of the
the tree of
of mean
mean
area
basal area cm
CM

G Stand basal area


area m2/ha

H Stand mean height m

Ho
Ho Stand dominant
dominant height,
height9 defined
as
as the mean height
height of the 100
diameter stems/ha
largest diameter stEl!ls/ha m

N Stocking - number of
of live
live trees/ha trees/ha
i
V Stand volume. Type of *
of volume
v:.olume is
is m3/ha
denoted by
by a subscript e.g.
subscript tog.
Vub underbark volume
V bark volume to 7 cm
V7 - over bane
7 cm

Measurements made
Measurements made immediately
immediately after
after thinning
thinning may
may be
be indicated
indicated byby aa prime
prime (').
(,).
E.g. N'
E.g. N' stocking
stocking after
after thinnning.
thinnning. Removals in thinningn
thinnings should be denoted by
Bubscript e.
a subscript e. E.g. GeG would
would be
be basal
basal area
area removed
removed. in
in thinning.
thinning.
e

3.2.2 Mixed Forest


3.2.2 Mixed Forest

analysis in mixed forest


Primary analynis forest aims
aims mainly
mainly to
to construct
construct aa stand
stand table
table giving
giving stem
stem
numbers grouped
numbern grouped by
by size
size classes
classes for
for each
each species
species or
or species
species group.
group.

constructed, then
Once the stand table has been constructed9 then various
various alternative
alternative measures
measures of
of growing
growing
stock can be derived from
from it
it using
using different
different criteria.
criteria. For example9
example, ane
one may wish to derive
area of
total basal area of trees
trees in
in aa given
given combination
combination ofof species
species groups
groups over
over aa certain
certain size;
size; onon
another occasion
another occasion ane
one may
may repeat
repeat the
the summary
sununary using
using different
different species
species groups
groups oror size
size limits.
limits.
- 25
25 -

A table can
A stand table can of
of course
course be
be constructed
constructed directly
directly as
as the
the plot
plot is
is being
being measured,
measured,
by recording
by only counts
recording only counts by
by size
size and
and species
species classes.
classes. This
This procedure is not recommended
not reconmended
with any
with any type
type of
of inventory
inventory except
except the
the most
most preliminary
preliminary resource
resource assessments.
assessments. Individual
and species
tree dimensions and species should
should always be recorded,
recorded, even though the
the intention
intention may
may be
be to
to
subsequently summarize
summarize the
the data.
data. This
This is particularly important
important on
on permanent
permanent plots,
plots, since
since
individual tree
it allows individual tree increment
increment estimates.
estimates.

Measurement forms
Measurement forms for
for plots
plots in
in mixed forest
forest may
may vary considerably,
conSiderably, depending on the
characteristics being
being recorded.
recorded. The following types of
of situation are commonly
commonly found:

(a) Mixed tropical montane forest (A


(A few
few light
light demanding species of
of mixed
mixed age).
age).
Form 3.1 may
may be used with
with the first
first 'code'
'code' column
column being
being reserved
reserved for
for species
species
as aa two
two digit
digit or
or two
two letter
letter code.
code. A A systematic sample of heights
heights should
be meausred,
always be meausred, to
to allow
allow aa height/diameter
height/diameter curve
curve to
to be
be constructed.
constructed.

(b) rainforest
Tropical rainforest (Large numbers
(Large numbers of mixed species, climbers, epiphytes,
species, climbers,
buttresses ) .
buttresses).

Large plots,
Large plots, over
over 11 ha,
ha, are normally used,
used, subdivided
subdivided into
into 10 x 10 m
m subplots
subplots
or quadrats. Heights are not not normally measurable,
measurable, but
but trees
trees may
may be
be classified
classified
crown shape
by crown shape and
and crown
crown position.
position. Two reference
reference diameters
diameters should
should be
be measured
measured
forming buttresses.
on stems forming buttresses. There are normally several hundred distinct
normally several hundred distinct
species likely
likely to occur
occur on
on aa plot.

(c) Sub-humidwoodlands
Subhumid woodlands (E.g.
(E.g. Miombo
Mianbo forest
forest in
in eastern
eastern Africa).
Africa).
tree form
Here tree form and
and length
length of
of merchantable
merchantable bole
bole are
are important
important characteristics.
characteristics.
is easily
Height is easily measurable because of of the openness
openness of
of the forest,
forest, but
but only to
nearest metre
the nearest metre because
because of
of diffuse
diffuse crown
crown shape.
shape. There are
are likely
likely to
to be
be over
100 possible species present.
possible species present.

(d) Arid-zone woodland


Aridzone woodland
likely to be
Trees are likely be multi-stemmed with height
multistemmed with height and
and species
species being
being the only
only
characters of
of importance.
importance. Height should
should be
be measured
measured toto the
the nearest
nearest decimetre.
decimetre.

3.1 shows
Figure 3.1 shows alternative
alternative record
record formats
formats for
for tree measurements for these four
cases,
cases, together with the record format
format from Form 3.1 for plantations for for comparison.
comparison. AA
'record' is
'record' is assumed
assumed to
to be
be the
the amount
amount of
of data
data that
that can
can be
be entered
entered on on one
one 8O-column
80column punched
card, the commonest
card, which represents the canmonest medium
medium for
for data
data input
input to
to aa computer.
computer.

3.2.3
3.2.3 Initial Assessment
Assessment of Permanent Plots

When
When aa permanent plot is assessed for the first
first time9
time, the following additional
additional
required:
information is required:

(1) The exact area of the plot, a plane projection i.e.


plot, as a i.e. corrected for slope.
slope.

(2) site information


Basic site information including
including latitude,
latitude, longitude,
longitude, aspect,
aspect, altitude, slope,
slope,
slope position, forest history and past land use.
position, forest use.

(3) Meteorological information


information from
fran the
the nearest
nearest weather
weather station
station giving
giving monthly
monthly
and mean
precipitation and mean minimum
minimum and
and maximum
maximum temperatures.
temperatures.
,

- 26
- 26 --

(4) The positions of


of all the trees
trees on
on the
the plots. For circular plots, these should should
recorded as
be recorded as aa bearing
bearing and
and distance
distance from
from the
the plot
plot centre.
centre. For
For rectangular
rectangular
these should
plots, these should be
be given
given as
as XX and
and YY coordinates
coordinates in
in decimetres
decimetres from
from the
the most
most
south-west
south,west corner ofof the plot.

(5) information including:


Soil profile information including:
colour
colour
- texture
texture
pH
pH
N, P,
analysis for N, P, K, Ca, Mg
Kt Ca, Mg
depth
bulk density
for each
for each discernible
discernible soil
Boil horizon.
horizon. The soil
soil pits or
or auger
auger holes
holes should
should be
be
on each
replicated on each plot.
plot. Two samples should be sufficient
sufficient except
except on
on very
very large
large
and variable
variable plots.
plots. Analytical techniques may
may vary
vary somewhat
somewhat according
according to
to methods
methods
already in use in a particular country and
and special
special conditions
conditions encountered,
encountered, and
and
should be determined in
in collaboration
collaboration with
with soil
soil scientists.
scientists. -However, once a
However, once
for soil analysis has
system for has been
been settled
settled upon,
upon, it
it should
should be
be modified
modified only
only for
for
very strong
very strong reasons and, at the time of
of modification,
modification, aa series
series of samples (20
samples (20
or 30) should be analysed by
by both
both the
the old
old and
and new
new methods
methods to
to determine
determine aa
regression relation to allow results
results from
from the old methods
methods to
to be
be compared
compared with
with
the new
new ones.
ones ,

3.3 ANALYSIS PROCEDURE


STEM ANALYSIS PROCEDURE

Stem analysis refers


refers to
to the
the reconstruction
reconstruction of
of the
the growth
growth history
history of
of aa tree
tree by:
by:

(a) Felling
Felling the tree;

(b) Cutting discs


discs at intervals of
of around
around 22 mm along
along the
the stem:
stem;
(c) Careful
Careful counting and measurement of
of growth
growth rings
rings on
on the
the discs.
discs.

AA great deal ofof information


information about
about stand
stand dynamics
dynamics can
can be
be gained
gsined from
from stem
stem analysis,
analysis ,
but in
in this
this manual thethe main concern
concern is
is that
that of
of reconstructing
reconstructing the
the dominant
dominant height
height growth
growth
history of aa stand.
history of stand.

The procedure is only possible in seasonal climates and with species producing clearly
defined rings.
defined rings.

For height growth reconstruction, only


only the height of
of measurement and ring
ring count need
be recorded. With species and climates producing very unambiguous rings
ringe this can
can be done
in
in the field with little difficulty.

Where rings are not cut, clearly


not so clear, discs must be cut, clearly marked in in the
the field
field as to
their point of
of origin
origin on
on the
the tree
tree and
and their
their orientation
orientati on (i.e.
(i. e. which
which way
way up
up the
the disc
disc was
was an
on
the
the tree), laboratory for
tree), and returned to the laboratory for assessment
assessment byby one
one of
of two
two methods:

(1) Planing
Planing and polishing
polishing the disc,
disc, followed by counting of
of rings
ringe along two axes
using a microscope an
on a vernier
vernier rack
rack and
and pinion
pinion mounting.
(2) Cutting
Cutting of
of two
two samples
samples along aa cross,
cross, with
withsubsequent
subsequentanalysis by X-ray densitometry.
analysisbyX-ray densitometry.
Fi gure 3.1

RECORD FO~IATS FOR TREE r~EASURU1ENTS IN DIFFERENT FOREST TYPES

neE:

..
IS"' T e e", 2, .... Lt ""
Plantation or '?u R eO' 5"" ~e'6
NJ el- H
U1 0 hz:I

cl-
cl
Tt.d'

...-
° CD p

H-
H)j 0

Fi
CD O ..
other single 1-1 ... ....
ti

0 got
.,
.e
.

C-0.08
~

.0. Es

DAMe-ree
~~

DolmErEst
""

bAMPre4

TER
. ~~
I-

kecrt4-r
~olles
>- CoDes >-
E~
I-
.,. r~

lQ-FAT

Di5f.E7174
C<> . . .
", .

H6lq Hl"
species forest I-

o
'" c:..o~e's.

c+
-. "' ,11 , ,
%
U)
(D

% %

He S-t-1
(17 ~

TREE
%
.0 w .

5.14 . o.
~""

NR.
~~

k
V.44.
'!

I4E ts

T5 PE
~~ <l .. i~
~

•• P .

,II
0-
r' .; < . 0; ~2
;;
,,
~

JJ~
.; ~. ~2 <i • t- _ d
'"I , ,I, I, % r ~

H
,, T , I, ~,'
~
'"

0
Ll ~1 _1 !

0
, I

--
0
I , I T .
I T ILl I

"""
ILl

Rainforest with , ,,,,, "~E"E

oi
..0-
",utlt.~t."T

(n
~OT
buttressed trees

ca.0.. /net.

e;,'

74
70 5

Clp

CIOur., s.Ah,
cdo dot., StiChP
pr
E
..... 0

cStow, PeS

Poi
cltowo, POS.
o

SpFc.E.s
wo,q01-
3
~.

3
••

FiEtq.,4-r
SOC-c,gs

5
"

Pet 1es

coil&
"~:
.'

-1-2Eff
-rape'
~~

cob
. ~

17;-
~ 2

CLEW.
~l

P.

Re7.
3
1
3

wr.
ii

3
7?
3
fteF
"•

r_10.0
'"
---l

Sub-humid forest -no:.rc ...,.eoc;

I
lilT -nunr ::t .... "l"f. :t> 4-....... ""I1teE 5'""''' TotMiO

(temporary plot
"~3 to.~~. ~,:~~~~iJ~3
,. 1! ~

Ii4.1...c.d 4.. T..


j!. .,

MG/L.461NT.
re nor( -
E~c.s ,d
" ..... .~~ tc~ol
I

1,17414T
MeA c NOWT-.
INhavke-rw.
311,,,,Mel-Ta.
format - trees not ~ ~
cl-

,iI2 frgeiit-
'.I. ":'t.J

5 Pec,es

.trifir
"E""

.4171.114T
••

saV ,4 WY
HE. x5m.r
",

SeUc.65

H5tirt-t-
~: J~;2 t;_ ;2~ ~110 J~~I,.IIl~~-:~U. t~ ,zt:2tllt ~1lo

De FSPc.,r
J!.;

OVcGc--r
C-1-2,,S4
c,...t.ss
ci

oev74...r
t"! ,..

cc o I'
~~ ~i:~f:~~~~i ~:t ti~~~d,o~£sEe
&0 0,

coDe
>-.

Fert.riii

00 0 E

F-tE04
-rDPCgit.

CD,DC
FoP.N.
1 oVA ,

[gC,CM
-1-0,44....
numbered)

-rn-rft,
Col
Attie
Ik0,C

MO. e
[,ac
f~ Jt" ...
~ 5 ;;'''
•. • , OJ,
¥' I) i'" tot "" 0 0,4 0. ~ C:.. '" ,., it:" ~ Q 'I> ~z~fl D

II L r ,

0
I iT , iT

0
T IY I I

F-
jl!i '-'-'-'-L.L..L.l.

Arid-zone wo odland. I ... .,.. ~If I 2. ..... Ta.~6' ?t. "tlle'E '+.... lllE'oi fi ...... ",u'£ l.~ 'TtEic: '8- "11te'1i , - -r,qoe 10 .... "1I\e'I!' ?~.,...,

Multi-stemmed trees.
> ~. .." ~ >- I . ,. l . \: t. .. ~ r.~ '& ~,. ~ I J

Sre..S

NC. g-rw.ntS.
,. i

-ra4 S,
N.Z. s'reeAS
SITeciD.

51-dIAS
( Temporary plot .. j
Prf.c.19"&

He Sroer

14-r

SPEcteS.
spec,25

I-

HT
140 o ¡HT
~'X ~ ~ ~~ t;. i t- ~ b" Ii ~ ~ ~ "0
~ ~ !.- ~ ~D ~ ~ IJ'l" ~ II.!~IJ'"
~ ~ .. ;~ol ;.- ~. Sit ~~ ~ Q

Pecit--.:
greciES

tlf7f ¡NT
SPec.e5
tvg,qw/-

6c

format - trees not


SG1743,25

.00o

c.DE
co N6,
C...D..7
ccoc--

coog
cobE

s t'

sf.fet
.. 8
"0'" . bD aJ .. Ib.o jO-
Oa-

"II)
l! .;'a

Mi..
2..,!2.~:t ~ ~ ~ ~
numbered) • ,./ft.
1:1 :t -. :z; 2.
\l .." " II. U tI .,
C ",j oJ III. ... oJ '2: .; .. <I ... " lit. .... "
Z" 2\11 a." ,~:t~!,II :t: ~. ' oil
" , T , ,i I, r ,I " , T i." ,! , " ,T I, I" ,T I, t , • , • , , I, r . , . , , I I I" ! ,-,
--28-
28 -

(1) or
In either of cases (1) or (2)9
(2), false
false rings
rings or very faint
faint rings
rings should
should be
be checked
checked
against climatic
climatic records.
records. With X-ray densitometry, which produces
densitometry which produces aa numerical
numerical estimate
estimate of
ring width
ring width and
and density,
density, direct
direct correlation
correlation with
with climatic
climatic variables
variables is
is possible.
possible.

The age at which


which the
the tree
tree reached
reached aa given
given height
height is
is gtven
given by
by the
the number
number of
of rings
rings at
at
base of
the base of the
the tree
tree minus
minus the
the number
number of
of rings
rings at
at the
the given
given height.
height. From this,
thiS, height
height can
can
be plotted
be plotted directly
directly on
on age
age for
for the
the tree.
tree.

If
If the
the sample tree is is aa well-fonned
well-formed dominant,
dominant, then this
this height-age
height-age curve
curve may
may be
be
regarded as essentially the same as a height-age curve derived from a pennanent sample plot,
regarded as essentially the same as a height-age curve derived from a permanent sample plot,
may be
and may be analysed
analysed in
in the
the same
same way.
way.

3.4 SPEX)IAL MEl'HOm


SPECIAL TREE INCREMENT
METHODS OF TREE INCR»IUlT ESTIMATION
ESTIMATION

3.4.1
3.4.1 Simple Measurements

·On
On pennanent
permanent plots,
plots, tree increment is estimated by taking the
the difference
difference between
between
successive diameter
diameter measurements, divided
divided by measurement interval.
by the measurement interval. For this to be an
accurat
accuratee procedure:

(1) be clearly
Individual trees must be clearly and
and uniquely
uniquely identified
identified on
on the
the plot.
plot.

(2) The point of


of measurement an
on the
the tree
tree must
must be
be precisely
precisely relocatable.
relocatable. Two alter-
native methods
native methods are
are possible:
possible:

(i) paint aa ring


ring at
at the
the point
point of
of breast
breast height
height measurement.
measurement. may be
This may be
under some
excessively conspicuous under some circumstances;
circumstances;

(ii) insert
insert aa nail
nail aa precise distance above the point of measurement
point of (50 em
measurement (50 cm
is suggested) and relocate the point ofof meaaurement
measurement with reference
reference to
nail. This nail may also bear the tree identification tag.
the nail. tag.

3.4.2 on Buttressed
Remeasurement on Buttressed Trees
Trees

are developing
When trees are developing buttresses,
buttresses, itit is
is customary to measure diameter
diameter atat a refe-
refe-
rence point about
about 11 metre
metre above
above the
the buttresses. Since buttresses
buttresses will
will extend between
remeasurements, it
remeasurements it is
is Obviously
obviouslynecessary
necessary to
to move
move the
the reference
reference diameter
diameter from
from time
time to
to time.
time.

any increment
This procedure makes any increment determination
determination from
from successive
successive remeasurements
remeasurements
impossible.

may be
Two approaches may be adopted
adopted to
to counter
counter this
this problem.
problem.

!l!:21
First Use two reference diameters at at each
each remeasurement.
remeasurement. Then,
Then, if it is necessary
to move the lower reference diameter,
diameter, it
it replaces the upper one and aa new
new reference
reference diameter
diameter
is formed
fonned above
above the
the original
original top
top reference
reference diameter.
diameter. In In this
this way,
way, direct increment estima-
estima,-
tion is always possible.

is recommended
It is recamnended that
that the
the two
two diameters
diameters should
should be
be 1.5
1.5 mm apart,
apart, with
with the
the lower
lower one
one
1 metre above the
the top
top of
of the
the buttresses.
buttresses.
- 29
29 -

illustrated in
The process is illustrated in the
the diagram
diagram below,
below.

-d~--------~----- ~

firs
firstt measurement second measurement third measurement
L
1
-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~----------~,
I
tiI~-----------r----------~
I
I

increment = (d1
(d1 on
on 2nd
0::=2nd meas.
meas. - (d 1 on 3rd meas.
increment = (d1 meas. -..
d2 / time
d2 on 1st meas.) / time interval
interval on 2nd meas.) /
d2 on / time interval

that these reference diameters


Note that diameters should
should be
be marked
marked with
with paint
paint oror nails.
nails. It isis
essential cli,!,b the trees with
essential to climb with ladders
ladders and
and measure
measure diameters
diameters with
with girth
girth tapes.
tapes. Optical
Optical
such as
instruments such as the
the Relaskop
Relaskop are
are not
not sufficiently
sufficiently accurate
accurate for
for increment
increment estimation.
estimation.

Second The other approach isis to


to use
use girth
girth bands, as
as described
described below,
below, and
and make
make
estimates over
increment estimates over short
short periods (1-2
(1-2 years)
y ears) before buttresses can significantly
influence the
influence the reference
reference diameter.
diameter.

3.4.3 Girth Bands


Girth Bands

Girth bands may·


may be constructed locally suite
quite cheaply and are particularly useful
useful
intensive research
for intensive research in,
in, for
for example,
example, thinning
thinning experiments.
experiments. Without
Without a vernier scale,
vernier scale,
they are accurate
they are accurate to ± t mm, which is
to.± is quite adequate for increment
increment estimation
estimation over
over 1 year
year
periods on
on tropical
tropical species.
species. With the add~tion of
the addition of aa vernier
vernier scale,
scale, the
the accuracy
accuracy increases
increases
to ± 0.05 mm diameter.
diameter. At this level,
level, they can indicate physiological
physiological rresponses
esponses and
and
seasonal growth
seasonal growth fluctuations.
fluctuations. (Conventional
(Conventional girth
girth measurements
measurements by contrast cannot give
increment more accurately than .± ± t an
on diameter even onon quite small
small trees
trees and
and are
are much
much
on very large trees.)
worse on trees.,

The basic requirements for construction are as follows:


follows:

(1) Basic materials required


required are
are aa roll
roll of
of 11 cm wide stainless steel hand,band, a large
large
~ength of
length of 1/3 cm
em coil
coil spring,
spring, scales
scales templates
templates for
for the
the main
main and
and vernier
vernier scales,
scales,
matt-black ceramic paint,
mattblack ceramic paint, aa shaped
shaped hole
hole punch
punch for
for the
the spring
spring fixings
fixings and
and a gas
or electric
electric oven.
oven.

(2) Suitable lengths of


of hand
band are wrapped around empty
empty tins and painted an
on one side
side
black ·paint. The tin, with the band, is
with the black.paint. is baked
baked to
to cure
cure the
the paint.
paint.
-3o-
- 30 -

(3) A
A zero marl<: is scratched
mark is scratched in
in the paint
paint at
at one
one end
end with
with aa metal
metal point.
point. If a
vernier scale is
vernier is to
to be added,
added, it
it is included atat this
this point,
point, with
with the
the position
position
of the graduations being
being defined
defined by
by the
the vernier
vernier template.
template.

(4) The approximate girth


girth of
of the tree must
muet be
be known
known before
before adding
adding the
the 'long'
'long' scale,
scale,
about 10
aboUt 10 cm
cm actual
actual length
length (equivalent
(equivalent to
to c.
c. 3 cm
em of diameter),
diameter), so that the band
can be cut to the correct
correct length and the scale
scale put
put on
on at
at the
the correct
correct point.
point. The
The
is scratched onto the band ueing the appropriate scale template .
scale is scratched onto the band using the appropriate scale template.

(5) for the


Slots for the retaining
retaining spring
spring are
are punched
punched in
in the
the band,
band, one
one outside
outside the
the zero
zero
(& vernier
mark (& vernier scale),
scale), the
the other
other inside
inside the
the long
long scale.
scale. The spring is fitted
through one
one end,
end, the
the band
band placed
placed around
around the
the tree,
tree, taking
taking care
care to
to remove
remove loose
loose
bark and avoid sag atat the back
back of the tree,
tree, and
and then
then the
the free
free end
end ofof the
the spring
spring
slotted in.
is slotted in. The spring should be cut to a length that gives a good positive positive
tension to
to the
the band.
band.

Increment
Increment is
is measured as the scale
s cale movement between
between the
the initial
initial and
and final
final reading.
reading.
nonnally inTram
The scales are normally in"em units,
units, giving
givilfg direct
direct reading
reading of
of diameter.
diameter. If the starting
point of the long scale
soal e is placed an exact
exact number of centimetres
centimetres from
from the
the zero
zero mark,
mark, the
the
band also
hand also gives
gives an
an absolute
absolute reading
reading of
of diameter.
diameter. If the long scale starts at an arbitrary
point,
point, then absolute diameter (as(as opposed to increment) should
should bebe measured
measured with
with aa separate
separate
just above
girth tape just above or
or below
below the
the hand.
band.

Templates for cutting


cutting the
the bands can
can be
be purchased
purchased from
from forestry
forestry instrument
instrument suppliers,
s uppliers,
or
or manufactured locally in any
manufactured locally any well equipped
equipped workshop.
workshop.

Various
Various kinds
kinds of sophisticated girth bands,
bands, some equipped
equipped for
for telemetry,
telemetry, can
can bbe
e
purchased directly. Because of their expense,
expense, these should only bebe used for
for the
the most
most inten-
inten-
sive kinds of
of research
research and
and under
under close
close supervision
supervision of
of the
the experimental
experimental area
area against
against animal
animal
or human damage.

3.4.4 Ring If,Measurements


Growth Ring easurements

Where growth
Where growth rings
rings are
are present,
present, they
they can
canbe
beused
usedtotoestima-te
estimate increment.
increment. The mos mostt
reliable method is by
by the
the use
use ofof stem
stem sections
sections on
on complete
complete felled
felled trees,
trees, taken at d.b.h.
taken at d. b. h.

of the last three or


The width of or four annual rings
rings should be measured on two diameters
diameters
at
at right angles onon the section.
section. These diameters should
should be
be along
along the
the major
major and
and minor
minor axes
8JCes
if the section isis elliptical.
elliptical. This gives the periodic
periodic underbark
underbark increment.
increment. ItIt is necessary
relating underbark diameter measured directly,
to construct a regression relating directly, with overbark
diameter measured with a girth
girth tape to convert the increments
increments underbark onto aa common scale
wi th normal d.b.h.
with d. b.h. measurements.
measurements.

Increment estimated from


Increment can also be estimated fran samples
samples bored
bored from
from the
the tree.
tree • . This is subject
subj ect
to numerOUs errors, especially
numerous errors, especially in
in species
species with soft
soft timber.
timber. The resultant core core may
may be
be
or spirally
stretched or spirally compressed.
canpressed. ItIt may not be accurately
accurately radial.
radial.

Because the
Because the difficulties
difficulties in
in counting
counting growth
growth rings
rings in
in tropical
tropical areas
areas often
often require
require
resort
resort to calibrated microscopes or X-ray densitometre,
densitometre, complete sections
sections should be regarded
essentia.l. The use of
as essential. of increment borers is
is not usually
usually aa possible option.
option.
- 31
31 -

3.5
305 INDIrux:T
INDIRECT 'rREE
TREE DOMINANT
DOMINANT HEIGHT
HEIGHT ESTIMATION
ESTIMATION

Because tree height estimation isis aa relatively


relatively slow procedure,
procedure, it
it is
is not
not usually
usually
desirable
desirable to measure more than 8-10
8-10 trees
trees on
on aa plot.
plot. IfIf the heights of all trees
the heights of all trees onon the
the
plot are required,
required, then
then aa height-diameter curve of
heightdiameter curve of the
the form
form

h = bo 4- bid b2d2

can
can be
be constructed. Some special points should
should be
be noted:
noted:

(1) The calculation method for


for this
this regression
regression is
is given
given in
in Appendix
Appendix 2.2,
2.2, together
together
with an example.
exampl e.

(2) With more than one


one plot in
in ae. single
single stand,
stand, the
the sample
sample trees
trees should
should be
be pooled
pooled
to fit
fit the height/diameter regression.
height/diameter regression.

(3)
(3) Samples between stands of
of varying
varying density
denSity or
or age
age should
should never
never be
be pooled
pooled for
for
detennination of the regression
determination of regression unless comparison
canparison of
of separate
separate regressions
regressions
(Appendix A shows there
A 2.8) shows there is
is no
no significant
significant difference.
difference.

(4)
(4) The fitted
fitted regression
regression should not
not be
be used
used to
to predict
predict heights
heights unless
unless three
three condi-
condi-
tions are satisfied:

(0
(i) value is
The regression F value is significant
significant at
at the
the 95% leVel.
leVel.

(ii) The bb1 coefficient is


is positive.
1
(iii) The b coefficient is
is negative.
negative.
2
b2

(5) Once the regression has been calculated and tested to see if it
it is
is uable,
uable, mean
height
height H can be estimated as the height
height predicted when
when Dg is
is substituted
substituted for
for dd
in the regression.
regressiono

(6)
(6) Similarly,
Similarly, dominant
dominant height
height Ho is
is predicted when
When the
the mean
mean diameter
diameter of
of the
the domi-
domi-
nants (i.e. 100 largest
nants (i.e. largest diameter trees
trees per
per ha),
ha), symbolised by
by Do.
Do, is
is entered
entered in
in
the regression for d.

Referring back to point (4),


(4) , it
it should
should be
be noted
noted that
that when
when these
these conditions
conditions are
are not
not
safer to assume that the individual
satisfied, it is safer individual tree heights h used for volume estima-
are equal
tion are equal to
to the
the stand
stand mean
mean height
height H.H. This situation
situation arises
arises in
in many
many tropical
tropical species
species
because the
because the variation
variation in
in tree
tree heights
heights is
is unrelated
unrelated to
to diameter
diameter differences
differences and
and the
the instru-
instru-
mental error
error involved
involved in
in measurement
measurement is
is greater
greater than
than the
the effects
effects of
of diameter
diameteron
on height.
height.
Significant regressions
Significant regressions and
and well-developed relationships between
welldeveloped relationships between tree
tree diameter
diameter and height
height
are more likely to occur
occur with more shadetolerant
shade-tolerantspecies
speciesandandat
at higher
higherstockings
stockings per
perha.
ha.

In mixed age stands,


stands, the regression
regression will always be significant and can always
always be
be
for individual
used for individual tree height
height determination.
determination. However, care should still be taken not
not to
regressions for
pool regressions for different
different stands
stands without
without adeauate
adequate statistical
statistical tests
tests for
for the
the homogeneity
homogeneity
of the data.
of
- 32
32 -

I f the height-diameter
If regression is
heightdiameter regression is fitted
fitted to
to an
an age
age series
series ofof plantations
plantations (i.e.
(i. e. aa
series of stands
series of stands of different
different ages)
ages) itit will
will also
also be
be significant
significant. . It
It should
should be
be noted
noted however
however
that this is a different kind of of model to the one fitted within aa unifonnuniform age
age stand
stand and
and will
will
not reliable predict individual tree heights within
nct within one
one unifonn
uniform stand
stand (although
(althoughitit will predict
mean height HH as
as aa function
function of
of mean
mean diameter
diameter DgDg provided
provided that
that stand
stand density
density is
is constant).
constant).
Within
Within aa single-age stand, the
singleage stand, the regression
regression reflects
reflects dominance
dominance differences.
differences . Between age
classes,
classes, it
it reflects
reflects aa time-dependent growth relationship.
timedependent growth relationship.
-- 33
33 -

4. DATA STORAGE SYSTEMS


DATA STORAGE SYSTBIS

4.1 ADVAli'l'AGE!3
ADVAVTAGES OF CCNPUTER-BASED DATA STORAGE
CONFUTER-BASED DATA STORAGE SYSTEMS
SYSTEMS

A computel'-based
A store all
computer-based data storage system will store all permanent
pennanent sample
sample plot,
plot, experi-
experi-
mental plot
plot and
and temporary
temporary plot
plot data
data an
on magnetic
magnetic tapes
tapes or
or discs.
discs. This
This data can be accessed
quickly for summarization
summarization and analysis. It can be subjected to automatic error
and analysis. error checking
checking
procedures to
to Din-point
pin-point doubtful measurements. It
doubtful measurements. It can be
be updated or corrected relatively
easily.

Computer infonnation storage (CIS)


ComDuter information (CIS) still
still requires
requires maintenance
maintenance ofa
ofa conventional
conventional filing
system on each permanent
pennanent plot or
or experiment,
experiment, inin which
>lhich original
original field
field sheets
sheets and
and any
any queries,
queries,
notes, diagrams and
and procedural
procedural orders
orders are
are kept.
kept.

Untill recently,
Un-tu recently, the
the capital
capital cost
cost of
of aa computer
computer system
system and
and thethe lack
lack of
of skilled
skilled person-
person-
nel inhibited the use ofof CIS. With the advent of of the microcomputer, costs costs have
have fallen
fallen
drastically and
drastically and are
are now
now of
of the
the same
same order
order as
as those
those for
for aa motor vehicle. r,acrocomputers
motor· vehicle. Microcomputers
usually operate
operate in BASIC, which is a language designed
designed for
for easy
easy learning.
learning. Anybody
Anybody with
with aa
suitably facile
suitably facile brain
brain can
can teach
teach themselves
themselves BASIC,
BASIC, given
given access
access to microcomputer. In
to aa microcomputer. In
addition, some forestry institutions offer specialized training in data processing processing for
for
graduate or technical
technical staff.1/

Lack of CIS is aa significant inhibiting


inhibiting factor
factor in
in the
the development
d evelopment andand validation
validation of of
and effective
yield models and effective yield
yield planning
planning and
and control.
control. With manual extraction
extraction of of data from
from
files, only the simplest
files, only simplest kinds
kinds of
of model
model can
can be
be constructed,
constructed , whilst
whilst validation
validation byby residual
residual
is nct
analysis is not possible
possible because
because of
of the
the stupendous
stupendous amount
amount ofof work
work involved.
involved. Nor is it pos-
is it
examine alternative
sible to examine alternative modelling
modelling strategies
strategies on
on the
the same data or
Bame data or to
to update
update the
the model
model
as new
functions as new data
data is
is collected.
collected.

Furthermore, the productivity of


Furthermore, of skilled staff using manual
manual procedures
procedures is
is extremely
low.
10>1. of adequate
Collection of adequate quantities
quantities of
of data
data tends
tends to
to be
be inhibited,
inhibited, because
because manual
manual pro-
pro-
simply unable
cedures are simply unable to
to cope
cope with
with it.
it.

It
It is
is strongly recommended that
that all
all forestry
forestry organizations
organizations should
should either:
either:

(a) Have access to a a large computer facility,


facility, with an
an absolute maximum
maximum job
job turn-
turn-
around of one
one day.
day. This
This job turnaround should be considered
considered from
from the
the time
time the
the
results
results are returned
returned and
and should take
take into consideration
consideration periods
periods of
of the
the month
month
when the main computer may totally unavailable
may be totally unavailable (due
(due to
to priority
priority allocation
allocation
of computer time to other
other users), transportation
transportation difficulties
difficulties toto or
or from
from the
the
canputer, etc ••
computer, etc..

or
Or

(b) Purchase a microcqnputer system with:


microcomputer system with:
- 32-64k bytes of
of memory
- or hard
Twin drive diskette or hard disc system
system
- A printer
A

1/
1/ E.g. The Commonwealth
Commonwealth Forestry
Forestry Institute
Institute at
at Oxford,
Oxford, U.K.
U.K.
-34-
- 34 -

A teletype that can be interfaced to the computer,


A computer, with paper
paper tape
tape reader/
reader/
punch,
punch, for use in on or off-line data preparation
A
A BASIC or
or FORTRAN
FORTRAN compiler.
compiler.
This type of
of system
system would cost around S10
$10 000 in Europe or North
North America
America at
at
(mid-1979).
current prices (mid-1979).

Option (b)
(b) gives the forestry organization an in-house,
in-house, dedicated computer that
that is
is
likely to provide greater
greater productivity
productivity and
and more
more rapid
rapid personnel
personnel training
training than
than option
option (a).
(a).

4.2 DATA VALIDATION


VAlIDATION

in magnetically-stored
Errors arise in magnetically-stored data
data from
from the
the following
following sources:
sources:

(1) Field measurement errors


errOrs
(2) Data entry
entry or
or keypunching
keypunching errors
errors
(3) Programme errors.
errors.

The third type of


of error
error must be assumed to be eliminated by thorough testing of any
computer programmes used to store9
store, correct, update, print or
or select data.
data. The testing of
programmes is the responsibility
responsibility of
of the programmer?
programmer, Who
who is as directly responsible fOr
fbr the
errors
errors of
of his
his programmes
programmes as
as is
is the field
field worker who
Who fails
fails to make correct
correct measurements.
meaeurements.

Data entry or
or keypunching
keypunching errors
errors are largely eliminated
eliminated by the process of
of verifics.-
verifica-
!iE!:!,
tion, with any
which should always be used with any large
large mass of
of data. Verification involves
entering every item
item of data twice,
twice, by two different
different operators or in two separate runs.
runs. The
two data sets are then checked against each
each other,
other, automatically, and
and any
any inconsistencies
reported
reported to
to the operator,
operator, who can supply an appropriate correction.
correction. The actual
actual details
details of
the verification process will depend
depend on
on the
the data
data entry
entr,y system
system used.
used. Most data preparation
organizations
organizations will
will offer verification as a normal service and this should always be expli-
citly stipulated When
when submitting
submitting data
data for
for keypunching.
keypunching.

Field measurement errors


errors cannot
cannot be
be wholly
wholly eliminated,
eliminat ed, but they
they can
can be reduced:

(a) By attention to the training


training and
and morale of
of field
field workers
workers and
and by
by provision
provision of
of
suitable instruments for
for their
their use.
use.

(b) By running ~ checking


running data checking programmes
programnes an
on the
the magnetically
magnetically stored
stored data.
data. The data
checking is based an
on examination
examination for
for logical
logical inconsistences
inconsistences such
such as
as very
very large
large
or very
very small measurements,
measurements, negative increments inin diameter
diameter or
or height, missing
missing
tree numbers or
or tree numbers which
which have
have reappeared
reappeared. since
since aa previous
previous harvesting,
harvesting,
identification and
changes in species identification and so
so an.
on.

inconsistency is
Any such logical inconsistency is reported
reported by
by the
the data
data checking
checking programmes
programmes and
and must
must
examined to determine the likely source of the error.
be examined error. A A correction must then be
be supplied,
supplied,
using aa ~ editing programme, to
data editing to amend
amend the
the magnetically-stored
magnetically-stored data.
data.

The en-tire
entire process
process is
is an
an ongoing
angoing one,
one, as
as indicated diagrammatically
diagrammatically below.
-35-
- 35 -

CoIl ect data in


Collect
the field
field

t
Keypunching
Keypunching
Return
Return to
to field
field
to determine true
t ~ supply ~ value
value

V
0fO t °
en ~ca l.on
Verification
:~:!~tions
corrections

Any errors?
Any errors ? ---Yes./"! "

st~rage
No
No

Data storage on
Data on ""
magnetic media
magnetic media ""
Is
Is correction
office
possible in the office
Programme checks
Any logical errors
errol'S ?? ----Yes
- _ Yes _ _ _ _ _ _ _--1
t
Any logical

No 1
Data ready for
for
analysis

4.3 CONl'RACTS FOR THE PREPARATION


CONTRACTS PREPARATION OF COMPUTER
COMPUTERPROGRATIMES
PROGRAMI>I:El3

Contracts for computer programme preparation should


Contracts should contain
contain claus es covering
clauses covering the
the
following conditions:
following conditions:

(i)
(i) provision by
Full provision by the
the contractor
contractor of
of source
soullCe listinos
listings (in
(in BASIC9
BASIC , FORTRAN
FORTRAN or other
other
language used) of
of any
any programmes written.
written.

(ii)
(ii) Full
Full documentation of
documentation of all
all programmes9
programmes, including:
including:

(a) A dictionary
A dictionary of
of meanings
meanings for
for identifiers
identifiers or
or variables
variables used in the
used in the programme.
programme.

(b) Flow diagrams indicating


Flow indicating the sequence of
of operation of any programmes
programmes or
subprogrammes
subprogrammes written by
by the contractor and
and the
the sequence
sequence and
and nature
nature of
of
data transfers from
from external
external media
media and
and magnetic
magnetic storage.
storage.

(c) aplicit
Explicit definition
definition of
of the record
record structure and usage of
of all magnetic files
and all input and
and output
output media.
media.

(d) Explanation of theory behind the programme method,


method, together with references
texts or
to texts or other
other background
backgro.md material.
material .

(iii)
(iii) Liability by the contractor for any progrmmne
programme errors or for any failure
failure of the
operate as
programmes to operate as specified
specified when
when used in accordance
used in accordance with
with the documentation.

(iv)
(iv) Instruction by the contractor of some member of the forestry organization staff
of the programmes9
in the use of programmes, up to
to the
the point where the programmes can
can be demon-
strated to operate
strated operate to the satisfacticn
satisfaction of
of the
the forest
forest management without
without any
any
supervision by contractor.
by the contractor.
36 --
- 36
-

(v)
(v) copyright
Copyright over all supplied documentation, programmes and reports
reports to
to be
be vested
vested
organization.
in the forestry organization.

It may be possible
possible to
to reduce
reduce the
the cost
cost of
of aa contract
contract to
to some
sane degree
degree by
by relaxing
relaxing points
pointe
(iii)
(iii) and (v),
(v), but the other
other points should a lways be insisted on i f the programmes written
should always be insisted an if the programmes written
are to be of any
of any continuing
continuing use
use to
to the
the organization.
organization.

4.4 STORAGE SYSTEMS FOR PlOT


PLOT DATA

4.4.1
4.4.1 Introduction
Introduction

It
It is not
not the intention to provide detailed descriptions
descriptions of
of programmes
programmes for
for etoring
storing
summarizing permanent
and summarizing pennanent plot, experimental
experimental plot or
or temporary plot data.
data. These will proba-
proba-
bly vary a good
bly need to vary good deal according
according to the computing
canputing facilities available.
available. Only
Only the file
for input and output
structures for output and the types of functions the programmes can perfonn,
perform, will
be described
be described here.
here.

4.4.2
4.4.2 File Structures

file, in computing
A file, canputing terminology,
tenninology, consists of some of machin~readable
sane body of machine-readable infonna-..
informa,
tion on
on magnetic media (tape
(tape or
or disc) or
or on or paper tape.
on punched cards or tape. Input
Input fil es provide
files
data for a particular programme and
and may
may themselves be output
output files from another programme.
programme.

File structure defines,


defines, in the present context,
context, the organization
organization of the different
types of information
infonnation that must be grouped together to represent a single plot.
plot.

For pennanent plots, the basic information


permanent plots, infonnation an
on a single
single plot may be defined asfollows:
as follows:

initial assessment
- Plot initial assessment
1 st plot measurement
1st
2nd lt..
Repeat ed an
Repeated on the
tape/disc for
2nd
3rd
n
"
..
" ..
each plot
0
0

0

••
0
0
0

n'th plot measurement

End-of-plot record
--Ehd-of-plot

For temporary plots,


plots, the record
record structure is much
much simpler,
simpler, being
being only:
only:

Plot
Plot 1 assessment

Plot 22 ..
11

Plot 33 ..
11







assessment
Plot n assessment
-

-- 37
37 -

record structures
These record structures relate
relate to
to the
the permanent
pennanent data
data base,
base, -which
which may
may be
be on
an either
either
magnetic tape
magnetic tape or
or disc.
disc. For input of data for pennanent
Por input permanent plots,
plots, two
two types
types of
of different
different input
input
may be possible:
may

(i) assessments
Initial assessments

(ii) Remeasurement data.


Remeasurement data.

In cas
case (i), aa new plot
e (i), plot would be created in the database,
database, but
but the
the programme
programme would
would
ne ed to check
need check that
that plot
plot identification
identification did
did not
not conflict
conflict with
with an
an existing
existing plot.
plot.

(ii) , an existing
In case (ii), exis ting plot
plot would have to be present (otherwise an
present (otherwise an error
error would
would be
be
report ed) , with
reported), with the
the new
new measurement
measurement being
being at
at the
the appropriate
appropriate point.
point.

Rxperimental could normally


Experimental plots could normally be
be treated
treated in
in the
the same
same way
way as
as permanent
pennanent plots.
pl ots.
HO\;ev er , related
However, r elated treatment
treatment plots would be placed adjacent
adj acent to each
each other
other on the ttape,
ape , for
example as
example as :

Treatment 1
{Tre7ent
Block 11
Block -

- Treatment
Treatment nn

{ Trea~ment
- Treatment 1

Block 22 -

Treatment n
-Treatment

{ Treatment
Treatment 1
m
Block m

Trealment
Treatment n

To retrieve all
all the data for the experiment
experiment from the tape,
tape , n x m
m plots
plots would be read
ffrom
rom the st a rting position on the tape (or
starting disc) or the first plot in
(or disc) in the
the experiment,
experiment .

. 4. 3
44.4.3 Error Checking and Editing Functions

The following error checks are required for


for pennanent information :
permanent plot information:

That
That the plot
plot exists on tape (if
(if aa new
new plot is system)
is not being added to the syst em)
or
or does
does not
not yet
yet exist (if aa new plot .!:.!!
exist (if is being aMed).
being added).

(2) That
That the remeasurement dates are
are in
in aa consistent
consistent and
and ascending
ascending sequence.
s equence.

(3) That
That trees which have been thinned (i.e.
(i . e . disappeared
disappeared in measurements)
in past measurement s) ddo
o
not
not reappear on
on later measurements.
measurements.

(4 ) That
That trees do not species (on
not change species (on mixed
mixed forest
forest plots only)
plots only or plot
) or plots do not
s do not
change species (on
(on plantation plots).
- 38
- 38 -
-

(5) That
That diameter increments are
are positive
positive and
and not
not excesSively
excessively large.
large.

(6) Checking of the size ranges


ranges of
of parameters such
such as
as height,
height, diameter,
diameter, species
species
code, etc. for excessively
code, etc. excessively large
large or
or small
small values
values or
or unrecognised
unrecognised codes.
codes.

On temporary plots, only


only the checks
checks in
in the
the category are
6th category are possible.
possible.

Data should be added to the database even


even though
though it
it contains
contains errors;
errors; an editing
programme may
may then
then be
be used
used to
to manipulate
manipulate and
and amend
amend the
the magnetically-stored
magnetically-stored data.
data. With any
amount of
significant amount of data,
data, this
this is
is usually
usually much
much more
more convenient
convenient than
than attempting
attempting to
to correct
correct
the original
original punched
punched cards.
cards.

4.4.4
4.4.4 Plot Summaries

The plot
plot summary programme may incorporate
incorporate the
the error
error checking
checking procedures
procedures (or
(or they
they
may be in
may be in aa separate
separate programme).
programme) . Its
Its main
main function will
will be to produce summarized
summarized informa-
informa.-
relevant to
tion relevant to the
the particular
particular forest
forest type
type in
in question,
question, for
for use
use in fu~her analyses.
in further analyses . For
For
summaries may
plantations, the summaries may include
include plot mean and dominant
dominant height,
height, mean basal
basal area
area, stocking
diameter, basal area, stocking and
and volume.
volume. For mixed forest,
forest, the
the summaries
summaries will
will normally
normally
also include stand tables ofof selected
selected characteristics
characteristics by species and
by species and size
size classes.
classes.

The summary programme should


should be
be able
able to
to produce
produce its
its output
output both
both in
in aa printed
printed form,
fom,
>lith titling text to make it comprehensible
with comprehensible and in machine readable form, form, without
without text,
text, for
for
input to
direct input to data
data analysis
analysis programmes.
programmes. The machine readable outputoutput may be put onto
onto
magnetic tape
tape or
or disc
disc or
or punched
punched an
on paper
paper tape
tape or
or cards,
cards, as
as appropriate.
appropriate. If the output is is
onto magnetic tape,
tape, this should
should normally
normally be
be done
done in
in 'formatted' or character-encoded
1 formatted' or character-encoded form,
form,
in machine
rather than in machine binary
binary code.
code.

For mixed forests in particular,


particular, but
but also for plantations,
plantations, itit is
is useful
useful toto have
have aa
facility so that only selected
selected parts
parts of
of the
the output
output are
are printed
printed or
or placed
placed on
on tape.
t ape.

4.4.5
4.4.5 other Utilities
Other Utilities

will probably
Two other programmes will probably be
be needed
needed with
with aa sample
sample plot
plot data
data base:
base:

A sorting programme,
A programme, able to reorder the sequence of plots on tape so thatthat they
they
are grouped by forest, district,
district, species,
species, compartment,
comnartment, etc..
etc.. Norma1ly, plots will
Normally,plots wi1l
be entered
entered onto
onto the
the data
data base
base in
in an arbitrary order,.
an arbitrary order,. whereas
Whereas the
the summaries
summaries will
will
probably be preferred with
with some
some logical
logical sequence.
sequence.

characte~encoding programme,
Archival and character-encoding programme , to transfer
transfer the main data base on
on disc
or tape
tape into aa form
form suitable for archival (see
(Bee below)
below) or transfer to another
another
site. This
computer site. formatting, the entire
characte~encoding or formatting,
This will involve character-encoding
data base and writing
writing it
it anto
onto aa magnetic
magnetiC tape.
tape.

4.4.6
4.4.6 Data Base Security

A
A large data base stored onon disc or magnetic tape can readily
readily be destroyed by acci-
dents, or computer
dents, programme or computer failures.
failures. ItIt is
is essential therefore that
that after each addition
addition
of aa significant amOUJlt information, the entire
amount of information, entire data base is
is copied onto a spare
copied onto spare tape or
disc to give a complete
complete second
seccnd copy.
copy. These spare copies can be rotated,
rotated, so that
that at
at anyone
any one
time there is an up to
te date working version,
vereion, an up
up- to date archived
archived version and two or
or three
previous archived versions ofof the
the data
data base.
base.
39 --
-- 39

4.5
4.5 TRANSFER BETWEEN
DATA TRANSFER BETWEEN COVPUTER SYSTEl~S
C(),PUTER SYSTEMS

The necessity frequently arises for


for transferring
transferring data
data between computer
computer systems,
systems,
either for cooperat ive research or to
cooperative to permit
permit research
research workers
workers from
from one
one organization
organization to
to study
study
elsewhere using
using their
their own
own data.
data.

of data
Large amounts of data are
are best
best transferred
transferred an
on industry-standard
industry-standard magnetic
m"8'1etic computer
computer
tapes. These may 9-track or
may be 9-track or 7-track
7-track tapes.
tapes. The following
following information
information should
should be
be ascer-
ascer-
tained when
tained when the
the tape
tape is
is written:
"Titten:

(7 or 9)
of tracks (7
The number of

density (usually
The density (usually 800
800 or
or 11 600 bits per
per inch)
inch)
The parity (even
(even or
or odd)
odd)
- inteI'-block gap
The inter-block gap in
in mm
mrn (or
(or failing
failing this
this the
the exact
exact mark
mark and
and manufacturer
manufacture; of
of
the tape drive mechanism).

Tapes for transfer between computers should always always bebe character-encoded
character-encoded or formatted
should preferably
and should preferably use
use fixed-length
fixed-length records
records of
of moderate size,
size, probably less
less than 120
characters per
per record,
record , to
to facilitate
facilitate reading
reading the
the tape.
tape. The type
type of
of characte:r-encoding
character-encoding used
used
(EGCDIC,
(EICDIC, ASCII,
ASCII, BCD,
BCD, etc.)
etc.) should
should be
be determined
determined ifif possible
possible but
but is
is not
not critical,
critical, as
as trans-
trans-
literation from
literation from one
one to
to the
the other
other is
is quite
quite simple.
simple. A first and last
A listing of the first last few
few
hundred lines
lines of
of the
the tape
tape should
should be
be sent
sent with
with it to help
h e lp check that
that when the tape is read,
is read?
nO
no records oror parts of
of records lost.
records have been lost.

Header labels
labels and tapemarks are generally a nuisance when reading strange tapes, tapes, so
iit
t is better
better to
to write
write the
the tape
tape as
as aa single
single file,
file, without
without aa tape
tape label
label at
at the
the start.
start. The
end of information
infonnation is
is normally
normally indicated
indicated byby aa double
double tape
tape mark.
mark.

Information concerning the mode


mode of the tape (tracks, density,
tape (tracks, density, parity,
parity, character
character code),
code),
of origin
the contents and the address of origin should
should be attached to the tape with a
a sticky label.
label.

can normally
Tapes can normally be
be sent
sent easily
easily through
through the
the post.
post. However, high frequency
However, frequency metal
metal
may erase
detectors may erase some
some or
or all
all the information
information an
an a tape.
tape. The
The parcel
parcel should
should therefore
therefore be
be
clearly marked and easily
easily opened
opened for
for visual
visual inspection.
inspection.
40
- 40 -

5. ANALYSIS OF
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH
GROWTH AND
AND YIELD DATA FOR
YIDLD DATA FOR UNIFORM FOREST
UNIFORM FOREST

Unifom are those


Uniform forests are those in
in which
which the main crop
the main crop trees
trees are
are of
of aa known,
known, uniform
uniform age.
age.
They are usually composed
composed of
of a single species or a few ecologically similar
similar species.
species.
Uniform forests are,
are, by definition,
definition, managed under a clear felling system,
system, with
with or without
without
intermediate thinnings.
intermediate thinnings. Regeneration
Regeneration may
may be by planting,
be by planting, artificial
artificial or natural
natural seeding
seeding or
or
coppice.
from coppice.

In
In this
this type
type of
of situation,
situation, the
the main
main parameter"
parameters of of growth
growth and
and yield
yield prediction
prediction are
are
VIell understood. There is
well is a wide variety ofof possible models available.
available. The main
main limiting
factor on the effectiveness ofof a model is usually the availability of data for for the
the forests
forests
in question covering
covering aa wide
wide range
range of
of sites,
sites, ages
ages and
and stand
stand densities.
densities.

The gro,1th yield of


growth and yield of aa forest
forest can
can be
be modelled
modelled at
at three
three basic
basic levels.
levels. These are
These are
the whole stand, the
the size
size class
class and
and the
the individual
individual tree.
tree. For uniform forests,
forests, stand models
usually adequate
are usually adequate for
for most
most purposes.
purposes. Stand models are also very much simpler to both
both
and use.
construct and use. Consequently,
Consequently, this
this is the modelling strategy dealt
dealt with most
most fully;
fully; the
other section 5.7.
other two approaches are discussed briefly in section

single level
Even within this single level of
of stand
stand modelling,
modelling, there is a wide variety of choice
particular set
in the particular set of
of functions
functions to
to be
be incorporated
incorporated in
in the
the model.
model. Some
Some alternatives
alternatives are
are
nresented in
nresented in the
the different
different sections
sections which
Which follow,
follow, together
together with
with an
an attempt
attempt to
to define
define situa-
situa-
ti ons in which a particular method is most appropriate.
tions appropriate. Other alternatives have have been omitted
omitted
simpl:; hecause
simpi. of the
because of the need
need to
to keep
keep this
this manual
manual reasonably
reasonably concise.
concise.

On the Whole,
Whole, techniques
techni.ques are incorporated which are characterized by simplicity,
simplicity,
accuracy and
accuracy and flexibility.
flexibility.

particular aspect
Within a particular aspect of
of stand
stand modelling,
modelling, such
such as
as for
for example
example the
the production
production of
of
of basal area/height/stand
sets of area/height/stand density
density curves,
curves, an
an attempt
attempt has
has been
been made
made to
to include
include both
both
statistical methods
graphical methods and statistical methods of
of differing
differing degrees
degrees of
of complexity.
complexity.

5.1 CLASSIFICATION
SITE CLASSIFICATION

accuracy possible with


The relatively high accuracy with growth
growth and
and yield
yield models
models for
for uniform
uniform stands
stands
results partly from the precision with
with which
which it
it is
is possible
possible to
to classify
classify site.
site. This is
itself a result of the fact that age
age is
is normally
normally known
known from
from management
management records
records and
and height
height
of the dominant trees can usually
usually be
be measured
measured by hypsameters or
by hypsometers or similar
similar instruments.
instruments.

5.1.1 of Dominant Height as an Indicator of Site


Use of

The height
The height of
of aa uniform
uniform stand,
stand, at
at aa given
given age,
age, is
is aa good
good indicator
indicator of
of the
the potential
potential
p r oduct ivity of
productivity of that
that type
type of
of forest
forest on
on that
that particular
particular site.
site. Hence the construction of
height/age curves
height/age curves corresponding
corresponding to to different
different site
site classes is the first
first step
st·ep in growth and
and
yield model construction.
yield construction.

However,
However, the mean height of a stand is usually sensitive not
not only to age
age and
and site
site
also to
class, but also to stand
stand density.
density. Consequently,
Consequently, dominant
dominant height is normally used inin defining
defining
height of
the height of aa stand.
stand. Dominant height is
is almost
almost entirely
entirely insensitive
insensitive to
to stand
stand density
density
differences.
-- 41
41 --

Daninant
Dominant height can be defined in
in various
various ways,
ways, but
but the
the definition
definition with the
the widest
currency is that the dominant height
height of aa stand is the mean height of of the
the 100
100 thickest
thickest
s t ems per
stems per hectare.
hectare. Dominant
Daninant height is also
also sometimes
sometimes termed'top
termed'top height'.
height'.

Under some circumstances encountered in uniform forestsforests in the tropics,


tropics, dominant
&eminent
height ceases toto be
be aa good
good indicator
indicator ofof site
site class.
class. This occurs
occurs with
with young
young stands of VB1~·
stands of very
grot-ling crops and also with certain species which are notoriously variable in
fast growing
fast in their
t heir
height growth, such
such as
as Pinus
Pinus caribaea.
caribaea. This situation can be detected by by ranking permhlJer-.t
permanent
olot data
plot data byby height
height within
within each
each age
age class.
class. If the rank position of plots anon successive
succes.ive
occasions is poorly
poorly correlated,
correlated, then anyany site
site class CU~Jes constructed must be considered
class curves
of
of doubtful value.
value .

The problem arises simplysimply because of the great variability of height growth,
gl"oNth, relative
relativ e
to the effect
effect ofof site,
site, on on these
these types
types of
of stands.
stands. It
It could be
be partly overccme
overcome by aa redefini-
r-ede fi ni-
tion of
of dominant
dcminant height r~quire a larger
heig..llt to require larger sample
sample of
of height trees per plot, e.g.e.g. equivalent
equivalent
to 200 or
or 400 stems/ha. lin
1\-00 stems/ha. An alternative idea is to correlate final
final productivity with ~nvi·­
l-rl:t h envi-
ronrnental variables and use aa site
ronmental site classificaticn
classification based
based purely on
on slope,
slope, altitude,
al t itude 9 soilsoil type
typ e
or other factors which
which appear
appear to
to be
be significant.
significant.

5.1.2 Construction of Site Index


Index Curves
Curves

index relationship
The height-age-site index relationship is
is basic
basic to
to uniform f vr ~' .:;~.; growth
unifonn forest p ....~td1.cti o.:L
ts."'l'owt h psedietioh.
relationship is
The relationship is usually
usually referred
referred to
to simply
simply as
as the
the site
si-; e indelc
inde::.c CUl"ves
curves for for a.a sp eci es in
species in aa
given environment .
given environment.

sit e index curves may be


Construction of site he by graphical methods or
by graphical or by regression
rGgressi cri
analysis.

5.1.2.1 Graphical methods


Gra.hical methods of construction

Graphical methods of
of construction proceed
proceed. as
as follows:
follows:

1. Plot all available


a'Tailable height-age data
data for
for stands
stands of the speW.es
of the ~.n question.
sp €G:.es in qlH:st i on G
Daninant height should be used,
Dominant mean height,
used, not mean height, as it is
as it is much mol'~! indepuldent
much more inder .';llde..."1t
of variations inin stand
stand density.
density. Both
Both temporary
temporary and
and permanent
peman "nt plo-,
plotss may
ma y be in-
cluded on
cluded on the
the graph.
graph. With pennanent
permanent plots,
plots, the
the points
points from
from succ6ss i"f e J:"Sllea
successive sure-
remeasure-
should be
ments should be joined
,joined with
with straight
straight lines.
lines. This
This stage
stage is
is illustrated
illustrated in in figure
figure
5.1,
5.1, which shows
shows data from
from Pinus patula stands in
patula stands in Uganda.
Uganda.

2. by hand through
Next draw curves by through the
the data.
data. These should
should attempt
attempt to
to foll oll tthe
follow he
trends of:
of:

(0
(i) on the
The plots on the lower
lower edge
edge of
of the
the mass
mass of
of data;
data;

(u) tendency through


The median tendency through the
the data;
data;

(iii) The upper edge


edge of
of the data.

In each case the curves


curves should follow as parallel
parallel as
as possible
possible to
to the
the tendencies
tendencies
of
of pemanent
permanent sample plots onon that part of
of the
the graph.
graph. The drawing of
of these three
is shown
curves is shown in
in figure
figure 5.2.
5.2.
Figure 5.1
Figure 5.1

DATA FROM
DATA PEmWlENTAND
FM PERMANENT ANDTEMPORARY
TUlPORARY SAMPLE
SfJ-lPlE PLOTS
PLCTS READY
READY FOR
FOR
CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTIONOFOF SITE INDEX CURVES
SITE INDEX CURVES
35 -
+

30 +
~
+
-5
1: + +
:t
-sp

+
....""
1l
CD 25 t +
+*
~
+
+
.;l +
B 20 1-
A +
+ ....
f\)
+ ++

15

10

s5

o
o __ .1

o
0 2
2 4 6 86 10 12 14 16
16 18
18 20 22 24 26 28
26 30

~ (years)
Age
Figure
Figure 5.2
5.2

HAND-DRAWN SITE
HANDDRAWN INDEK CURVES
SITE INDEC CURVES SKEIC
SKETCHEM
HED THROUGH
'!'"dROUGR THE DATA TO
THE DATA REPRESENT
TO REPRESENT
THE NMINIMUN,
ININUN 9 J·l
r. EDIAN
IIDI AN AND
A NDJ.IAXTIHlt'i TRENDS
NAXIMIII TRENDS

35

~
30 ~ ~+
E
~
~
+
~ t +
fo
Qj 25 +
.<:
+
§ +
.,..s:: +
B 20 +
I=l + .,.w

15

10

o 1 L __

o ;' 4 6 8
8 10
10 12
12 14 16
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Age
Age (years
(years))
Figure
F'igu r e 5.3

TRACING
TRACING OF
OF THE
THE THREE
THREEHAI r SI
MAIN TE INDEX
SITE niDE:< CURVES
CURVES KITH
WITH TWO
TWOIINTERPOLATED
NTERPOLATED
INTERMEDIATE CURVES ADDED
INTEZIEDIATE CURVES ADDED AND
AND FACH
EACH CURVE
CURVEASSI GNED AA SITE
ASSIGNED CLASS
SITE CLASS

35 -
Site Class
r
30
~

-5
i... 25 ..... - - - _1I
~1lI

'"
--
Q)
.<:

~.::
...
0
~
20
/'
/

..... - - ~y
-N'

..,.
..,.
15
# I -'
-- ~
I

10

,
5

o __ L _ -.t __ l _____ ._L __

o 2 4 6 86 lo
10 12
12 14 16 18
16 20 22
I 24
24 26 26 30

Age
Age (years)
- 45 -

When data is
When all of the data is from
from temporary
temporary plots,the
plots, the same
same methodcan
method can be
be applied,
applied, but
but
there
there is
is "a possibility of considerable
considerable error
error due
due to
to the
the fact
fact that
that the
the plots
plots at
at
different
different ages may not be equally
equally representative
representative of
of different
different sites.
sites.

3. Two
Two additional curves can now be interpolated between
between the
the upper
upper and
and central
central
curves
curves and lower and central curves. The system can then be traced onto a
separate piece of paper, giving the result shown
shown in
in figure
figure 5.3.
5.3.

4. The curve system can be described as


as an
an equation
equation using
using the
the methods
methods described
described in
in
Appendix A.1. The curves themselves are usually
Appendix A.1. usually numbered sequentially
sequentially and
and
referred to as site class curves
curves (or
(or sometimes
sometimes yield
yield class,
class, production
production class,
class,
etc.). Thus
Thus in
in figure
figure 5.3 the site classes are
are numbered from
from II (most
(most productive)
productive)
to
to V (least
(least productive).

The simplicity of this


simplicity of this technique
technique of
of constructing
constructing site
site index
index curves
curves by
by graphical
graphical
is obvious. It
methods is ddvious. It has three significant
significant disadvantages:
disadvantages:

(i) tc aa great
The curves produced depend tc great extent
extent upon the judgement
judgement of the person
doing the work,
work, especially
e"pecially if the data is
is sparse or largely
largely from
from temporary
temporary plots
plots..
Different people will
will produce
produce different
different sets
aeta of
of curves,
curves, which
which may
may be
be more
more or
or less
leaa
accurate and unbiased in
in representing
representing the
the real
real trend.
trend.

(ii) When
When there is
is aa large amount
amount of data and it
it is
is already stored
stored in
in aa form
form acceptable
acceptable
computer (e.g.
to a computer (e.g. on
on 80 column Hollerith cards
carda or on magnetic
magnetic tape),
tape), then
then this
ia a very slow
is slow method compared to statistical techniques which can can be
be carried out
by computer.
by computer.

(iii) When stage 4 above, of


of describing the curve system as as an eauation
equation isis required
(as
(as when
when the
the curves are to be used within an inventory
inventory oror growth
growth projection
prOjection
progranune), the work
programme), then the work involved
involved in
in this
this step
step alone
alone may
may be
be as
as great
great as
as the
the
entire task of fitting the curves
curves directly
directly by
by one
one of
of the
the statistical
statistical techniques.
techniques.

5.1.2.2.
5.1.2.2. Mathematical methods of
of fittin
fitting site index
index curves
curves

1·;athematical techniques
Tathematical techniques of
of fitting
fitting site
site index
index curvas
curves have
have considerable
considerable advantages
over graphical
graphical methods
methods when a computer is available and the amount
amount of data
data is
is large.
large. However,
However,
it should not
not be assumed that the results
results of
of these techniques are necessarilz
necessarily more
more accurate
than
than hand-drawn curves; this will depend very much an
handdrawn curves; on the correctness of the height
height growth
chosen and the
model chosen the validity
validity of
of the
the statistical
statistical assumptions
assumptions used
used in
in the
the fitting
fitting of
of the
parameters of
parameters of the
the model.
model. Mathematical
Mathematical techniques
techniques can
can be
be classified
classified into
into four
four groups
groups in
in the
following way:
following way:

,
temporary plot
temporary plot plot
permanent plat -

data data
data
I
IE
proportional rninimurn-
minimum nested multiple
multiple
curves
curves maximum regression
regression regression
regression
method
method without
without with 1:
with pri ori
a priori
site index
site index site index
site index
- 46 -

methods, nested regression is statistically the


Of these four methods, the most
most appropriate
appropriate and
and
amenable to
is also amenable to manual
manual calculation.
calculation. Consequently examine this technique
Consequently we shall examine technique in
in
detail, discussing
most detail, discussing the
the other
other methods
methods somewhat
somewhat more
more briefly.
briefly.

four methods can be related to aa single model of height


All four height growth,
growth, Which
which is
is the
the
equation
Schmnacher equation
Schumacher 1/:
Ho = Hmax.exp(b/Ak)

dominant height,
where Ho is dominant ~ax is a
height, Hm a parameter to be fitted
fitted and
and represents
represents the
the maximum
maximum
the species
height the species could
could reach,
reach, exp(
exp( )) is
is the mathematical notation to indicate that the
expression in the bracket is a constant e = 2.71828
a power of the constant 2.71828 (i.e. e 2 ),
(i.e. exp(2) means e2)
and kk are
b and are parameters
parameters to
to be
be fitted
fitted and
and AA is
is the
the age
age of
of the
the stand.
stand.

given by this equation


The shapes given equation are illustrated
illuetrated in figure 5.4.
in figure By taking
By taking logarithms
logarithms
to the base (In) of
base ee (1n) of both
both sides
sides of
of equation
equation (1),
(1) , one
one gets:
gets:

in H0 = ln Hm + b/Ak -(2)
f "e
IIf we let a = In ~ax , then
in Hmax7 then aa and
and bb can
can be
be fitted
fitted byby linear
linear regression,
regression, provided
provided kk is
is known.
known.
Appropriate values ofof k for most
m9st species lie between 0.2 and 22 and can be estimated by
techniques described later
later in this section
section oror by
by nonlinear
nonlinear estimation
estimation as described in
Appendix
Appendix A.4. specie~, an assumed
A.4. For many specieS, assumed value of kk =~ 11 will
value of will give
give aa satisfactory
satisfactory fit.
fit.
The bh parameter
parameter in
in equation
equation (2)
(2) should
should always
always be
be negative;
negative; if it it is not,
not, check calculations
errors. The aa parameter will normally be between 2 and 7;
for errors. 7; again,
again, check for errors iif f
there is large
large divergence
divergence from
from this.
this.

For
For proportional curves fit
fit equation
equation (2) to the
the set
set of
of temporary
temporary sample
sample plot
plot data
data as
as
aa whole by linear regression,
regression, with the dependent variable YY as in
In Ho and the predictor
Predictor
varia'n
variablele XX as
as 1/Ak.
l/Ak. IIf
f k
k is
is not
not known,
known, follow the suggestions
suggestions in Appendix A.4 to determine
it.
it.

This gives the average height growth trend,


This gives trend, assuming that in each age class,
class, all
sites
sites have an equal likelihood of being represented.
represented. If it
it is
is known that,
that, for example,
example,
older age c1asses
classes fall on
an poorer sites and younger ones on
ones an the best sites, then do not use
this method.
method. Either construct
construct hand-drawn or, if PSP data is available,
hand,drawn curves or, available, use nested
regression.
regression.

Once the mean height growth


growth curve
curve has
has been
been fitted,
fitted, curves
curves of
of the
the same
same shape
shape can
can be
be
drawn to pass through
through different site
site index values. If the site index SS is
index values. is defined as
as the
the
dominant height of
of the stand
stand at an
an index
index age At, then
age Ai, then the
the aa parameter
parameter for
for the
the curve
curve to
to pass
pass
through a; is
through this site index, ai is given
given by:

a;
ai == ln S
In S - b/~ (3)
-(3)

where bb and k are from the average


average curve.
curve.

11
1/ Schumacher, 1939 A new growth curve and its application
Schumacher, F.X., 1939 application to timber
timber yield
yield studies.
studies.
J.
J. Forestry
Forestry 37:819-820.
-- 47
4'1 --

Figure
Dfi. ure_ 5.4

(a)
(,,) Gap
Graphh of
of the a~log(Hmax),
.ac1er equation with a=1
Sc:huli1acher oon k~l
Hmax ) k=1,
Hmax
Fimax and different
and different valuns
valuns of
of bb b

55
10
10

20

o 10
10 20 30 50
50
Age (years
Age (years))

(b) Graph of the


Graph theSchumacher
Schumacherecmion withwi.a=1
equation og (Hmax )2 b=5
th a=log(Hmax), b=5
Hmax and different
and different values
values of
of kk k

0.67

0.5

o 10 20 30 40
110 40o
Age (years)
Age (years)
48 --
-- 48

The muumum-maximum method is


minimum-maximum method is more
more flexible
flexible in
in the
the type
type of
of curve
curve shapes
shapes that
that result
result
than the proportional curve method,
Proportional curve method, · but
but it
it requires
requires multiple observations
observations in
in each age
age class
class
(at
(at least 3),
), and
and hence
hence cannot
cannot be used with limited amounts of of data.
data. The
The process
process proceeds
proceeds
as
as follows:

(1) In each age class, calculate


calculate the mean
mean Ho
Ho for
for all
all plots
plots and
and the
the minimum
minimum and
and
maximum values of
of Ho.
Ho.

(2) Fit three separate


separate regressions
regressions of
of the
the type
type shown
shown in
in equation
equation (2)
(2) to
to the
the maximum,
maximum,
minimum and mean
mean sets
sets of
of observations.
observations. The
The nonlinear
nonlinear kk parameter can be
parameter can assumed
be assumed
for all
as a constant for all three
three sets
sets or
or it
it can
can be
be fitted
fitted independently.
independently.

(3) As
As a final
final step,
step, the separate
separate coefficients for each
each of
of the
the three
three lines
lines can,
can, ifif
desired, be harmonized
harmonized to
to give
give aa single
single equation,
equation, using
using the
the methods
methods given
given in
in
App endix A.1.
Appendix A. 1 •

A
A more complex
canplex variation on this
this method is justified with large
large amounts
amounts of data
data in
in
each age class, as might be
be obtained
obtained from
fran aa forest
forest inventory.
inventory. The
The height observations in
height Observations in
each class
class are sorted into order,
order, from
from maximum to minimum and each point
point is
is assigned
assigned aa site
site
class SS from:

sS = (i t ) / n
(i- *)/
where ii is
where is the
the plot's
plot's position
position after
after sorting
sorting and
and nn is
is the
the number
number of
of plots
plots in
in the
the age
age class.
class .
Once the Plots
plots have been assigned a site
site class, then the analysis can proceed using multiple
as in
regression as in the
the last
last method
method described
described below.
below.

It should bbee thoroughly appreciated that the above methods for use with temporary
It
sample plot data
dat a should be regarded as producing
producing results that are anly
only of provisional
as they
usefulness, as they depend
depend critically
critically upon
upon the
the assumption
assumption that
that all
all sites
sites have an equal
have an equal like-
like-
of being
lihood of being represented
represented in
in each
each age
age class.
class.

This i s rarely the case in reality and hence the curves


This is "Till be
produced will be in
in some
some
degree defective.
defective. The only solution is to obtain recurrent height-age data from
fran permanent
permanent
plots or
or stem
stem analysis
analysis trees,
trees, which
which can
can be
be analysed
analysed by
by ane
one of
of the
the following
following methods.
methods.

Nested regression methods are


are of
of two
two types.
types. There is first
first of all the use of condi-
tional (or
(or zero-one)
zero-one) variables in
in multiple
multiple regression,
regression, as
as described
described in
in the
the example
example in
in
Appendix 2.1 0. Tbis
Appendix 2.10. This method has not, to the author's knowledge, been used in in site
site index
index
c onstruction, probably
curve construction, probably because
because with
with any
any realistic
realistic number
number of
of plots,
plots, the
the number
number of
of
involved in
variables involved in the
the regression
regression would
would be enonnouB; but the
be enormous; the approach
approach is
is by no means
by no
infeasible, given
given aa specially
specially adapted
adapted programme
programme toto genera-te
generate and handle the many
many zero-one
zero-one
variables. The second method, first
variables. first described
described byby Bailey 11
Clutter 1/ involves
Bailey && Clutter involves the
the use
use of
of
common slope
the common slope and
and common intercept estimators
CQ'nffion intercept estimators from
fran covariance
covariance analysis.
analysis. This method
method is
is
suited to
well suited to site
site index
index curve
curve construction
construction and
and is
is sufficiently
sufficiently simple
simple to
to make
make manual
manual
calculation of
of the parameters possible.

11
1/ Bailey, R.L. and
Bailey, Rol,. J.L., 1974 Base-Age
and Clutter, J.L., Base-Age Invariant
Invariant Polymorphic
Polymorphic Site
Site Ourves.
Curves.
Forest Science 20:155-59
- 49
49-

c omm on slope
The common figure 5.5(a)
s lope regression model is depicted in figure 5.5(a) and is given by the
equat i on:
equation:

Y.= ~+bX
y = al.+b X -(4)
(4)

a i is
where al is different
different for
for each
each plot,
plot, but
but bb (the
(the slope)
slope) is
is the
the same
same for
for all
all plots.
plots. common
The common
intercept model
intercept model is
is shown
shown in
in figure
figure 4.5(b)
4.5(b) and
and is
is represented
represented byby the
the equation:
equation:

Y == a + b
bi
.
i X -(5)
(5)

where the intercept


i ntercept aa is
is the
the same
same for
for all
all plots,
plots, but
but the
the slopes
slopes bi differ. In terms
bi differ. terms of the
Schumach er equation,
Schumacher equation, either
eithermodel
modelcan
canbebeused,
used,with
withY Yasas
in ln
HoHo and
and X as
X as l/Ak • The common
1/,eJc.
s lope mod
slope el corresponds
model corresponds in shape to sets of of proportional curves,
curves, but
but there
there is
is an
an important
distinction between
b etween this approach and that for temporary plots, plots, in that
that the
the distribution
distribution of
in the different
sites in different age
age classes
classes has
has no
no effect
effect an
on this
this method.
method.

Figure 5.5

RIDRESSIOm WITH
REGRESSIONS WI'll! commoN
COMMON SLOPES
SLOPES OR
OR CO!!J>!ON INTERCEPTS
COMON INTERCEPTS

(a)
(a) Canrnon for four
Common slope regressions for four plots
plots
y
Y

x
(b) Canmon
Common intercept regressions for three
three plots
plots
yY

x
-50-
- 50-

estimators for the common


The statistical estimators conunon slope and common
conunon intercept
intercept models
models are
are as
as
follows:

.fli ni ni
I(E X. ..Y..-E
12 12 . 12 X,..E Y.3../n.)
2 .
The comnon
conunon slope b =
= --(6)
(6 )

ikEkx.$)/ni)
milli
- Xi 2
ni-

ni m ni
• ni n4
Dot ni 2
ni
E z Y.
i
I (I x.j.f.x. .r. ./E X. .')
- I (l: Xij.I Xl.' :'!Ii ./I X . . )
j j J J j 1J
The common
conunon intercept
intercept aa ~
= _(7)
M
I((z1x. )v,..6x .2)
n 714

j j iJ

(although in concept they are quite simple)


As these formulae appear rather complex (although
some calculation pm
sane pro formes
fomas are provided with a worked example.
example. These are form 5.1,
fom 5. 1 , parts
11 and 2. Part
and 2. Part 11 carries out
out the
the within-plot summations, corresponding
withinplot summations, to the E for the jj
corresponding to
from 11 to ni in the above formulae,
subscript from fomulae, whilst
whilst part 2 of
of the form
fom carries out
out the
between-plot summations, corresponding
betweenplot summations, to 2
corresponding to:E for i
i from
fran 1 to m
m in
in the formulae.
fonnulae.

The example uses the data shown in figure 5.6 5.6,, from
fran 66 permanent sample plots
plots in
lusi tanica stands
Cupressus lusitanica stands in
in Kenya.
Kenya. A A kk parameter
parameter value
value ofof 11 is assumed for illustration
illustration
purposes. The height-age data are
heightage data are transcribed
transcribed into first
into the first two columns
columns of
of part
part 11 of form
5.1. Two sheets of of this form
fom are
are necessary
necessa!';Y for the
the six
six plots.
plots . The transformed
transfomed X X and Y Y
entered in
values are entered in columns
columns 3 and 4 4.. X2 is entered
entered in column 5 and X
in column X times YY in column
column 6.6.
Calculations should be carried out to at least four significant digits. The totals for for
each plot
plot (within-plot totals) for
(withinplot totals) for columns 3 to 66 are
are entered
entered inin the
the appropriate
appropriate line.
line. The
number of points in in each
each plot
plot is
is also
also entered.
entered. One then turns to part 22 of fom 5.1
of form 5. 1 to
continue the calculations. For each plot, plot, the various
various within-plot totals (EX,
withinplot totals ~Y, 2X2
(EX, ZY, ~X2 and
and
EXY) and the
EXY) and the number
number of
of points
points nn are
are combined
canbined according to the formulae
fomulae shown
shown at
at the
the top
top of
of
the columns of of part
part 2.
2. These figures
figures are
are then
then totalled
totalled between-plots
betweenplots to to give
give the
the items
items
(1) to (6)
marked (1) (6) at the
the bottom.
bottan. Finally the common slope and common canmon intercept coefficients
shown in
are calculated as shown in the
the last
last two
two lines.
lines.

The final reault


result inin this numerical example
example is
is that
that the
the common
conunon slope
slope coefficient
coefficient isis
-9.222, whilst
9.222, whilst the
the common
common intercept
intercept coefficient
coefficient isis 3.583. If either of these models is is
plotted as
plotted as aa set
set of
of site
"ite index
index curves,
curves, they
they will
will be
be found
found to
to bend
bend over
over much
much more
more sharply
sharply
is indicated
than is indicated byby the
the data
data in figure 5.6.
in figure 5 .6. This arises because the assumed value of k
is
is much too large for this set set of
of data.
data.

Bailey &
& Clutter,
Clutter, in the paper referred to earlier,
earlier, show
show how
how it is possible to
it is to
calculate the nonlinear coefficient directly
nonlinear k coefficient directly using
using aa regression
regression model
model containing
containing this
this
coefficient in linear
linear form,
fom, provided
provided that remeasurement
remeasurement data
data (from
(fran PSPs
PSPs or stem analysis)
so that height
is available so height increment
increment can
can be
be estimated.
estimated. The method is is as
as follows:
follows:
-- 51
51 --

1. Calculate a set ofof transformed


transfonned YY values
values for
for the
the 2nd, 3rd, etc.
2nd, 1rd, etc. Observations
observations
wi thin a plot, from
within from the
the formula:
formula:

. in f rii-Hii-11 Al )

L A A -
I

There is no Y
Y value corresponding
correspcnding to
to the
the first
first height
height Observation.
observation.

2. Calculate a corresponding
corresponding set
set of transfonned XX values
of transformed values from
from the
the formula:
fonrrula:

X.. ln(2/(Aij+A1i_1))
2.3

3. estimator using form


Fit a common slope estimator 5.1 or equation
fonn 5.1 (6) using
equation (6) using these
these trans-
trans-
formed X and YY values. Note that if form 5.1 is used,
fonned only the first two
used, anly
(1) and
columns and totals (1) (2) are
and (2) are required
required on
on part 2.
part 2.

4. Subtract 11 from the common


common slope
slope estimator
estimator obtained.
obtained. The result
result is
is the
the estimate
of k required.
required.

When using manual 5.2 can be used to carry out


manual calculation, form 5,2 out the
the transformations
transformations
steps 11 and
in steps and 22 above.
above. It
It has been completed for the first plot in the
the example
example data
data to
to
illustrate the
illustrate the usage.
usage.

The formulae for the common slope and common intercept


intercept estimators,
estimators, together
together with
with the
the
transformation technique
transformation technique for
for estimating
estimating the
the k parameter, can
can easily
easily be programmed for small
computers or
or programmable
programmable calculators.
calculators. Any programmable calculator
calculator with
with at least 15 data
at least
registers and 200 programme
programme steps
steps should
should be
be adequate.
adequate.

When kk parameter is fitted in this >


way figure 5.6,
...y to the data in figure 5.6, the
the following
following
are obtained:
values are obtained:
k ~= 0.25
0.25
bb = -6.638 6.638
(common slope model)
a
a = 6.311
= 6.111 (common intercept model)
(camnon

UES examine the construction


Let us construction of
of aa set
set of
of site
site indexcurves
index curves from
from these
these results,
results,
camnon intercept
using the common intercept modela
model.

have:
We have:
25
in H
In Ho o
=
= 6.311
6.311 ++ b.!AO.
bi/A°°25
~
-(8)
-(8)

The parameter bi
b i depends
depends upon
upon si-te
site index
index SS.
. index
For a selected site index, at index
age Ai:
age A.:

in S = 6.311 4- bi/Ai

0.25
~. b. =( ( nn SS - 6.311).Ai0.25
6.311 ) .~
~
-
- 52
52 -
-

If we wish
wish to
to plot curves
curves for
for site
site indices 169 189
indioes 16, 18, 209
20, 229
22, 249
24, 26 using
using an index ege
age
of 20 years,
years, we have:

S bi

16 -7.483
7.483
18 7.234
-7.234
20 7.011
-7.011
22 6.809
-6.809
24 6.625
-6.6 25
26
26 6.456
-6.456

(8)9 substituting
Then from equation (8), substituting bii for each site index curve,
the b curve, values of Ho
can be calculated for selected
selected values
values of A.
of A. The curves that result from
that result from the
the above
above parameter
parameter
5.79
values are shown in figure 5.7, on the sarne
same scale as is used for the data in figure 5.6.

one wishes to
If ane to calculate
calculate the
the site
site index
index of
of aa stand,
stand, given
given its
its age
ege and
and dominant
dominant
height, then use the formula:
height, formula:

in S = a + (ln Ho a).(A/A0k -(9)

For example,
example, for the parameter values for aa and kk given above,
above, suppose
auppose we
we have
have aa
stand of 14.5 m 11.5 years.
m at 11.5 years. Then the
the estimated
estimated si-te
Bite index
index is given by:

In SS
in = 6.311 + (In
6.311 6.311).(11.5/20)0.25
(in 14.5 - 6.311).(11.5/20)°.25

= 3.144

:.
•• sS = 23.2

Hence we can say that


that the sit
sitee index of this stand is 23 m.
m.

When the common slope model


model is used,
used, instead of the common intercept
intercept model,
model, then
then the
the
basic equation
equation is:
is:

In Ho
ln H . = ai
a. + b/Ak
+ b/Ak -(10)
o 1

with a. being
wtth ,a. being dependent on si-te
dependent on site index as:
index as:
1
/ k
ai = In S -(11 )

with site index


index for
for aa selected
selected height-age observation being
heightage observation being given
given by:
by:
/ / lc%
S
n S = ln
Ho
+ bk1/Ak 1/A ) -(12)
- 53
- 53 --

Form
o rm 5".1 rCommgn
m n s]ove common intercept
Ose and common
. regression
nterce _t re ession mOdels
models
s

Part 1 Plot data


data summarization. as many part
smmarization. Use as part 1 sheets
sheets
as necessary for all
as all plots.
plots.
Data transformations used:
used X ==
X / // Aqc
A....
--~~~--------------
Y
Y =
= LocrE II~";HT
Loc;- E /./E/ger
-...=44-SISIMI-V--=,..-L2,-._.-._.1
'Plot
lot 5:3 - =i3.112111,---M- V L Pe

Raw data
Raw data Transformed data
Transformed
A H X
X Y
Y
x2
X2 XY
ifY _ _

G.~
. #.; 9.6
'l.b 0.144013
0.14'\ 3. 22.26'2
. 2.,'i o.c.2.22-8
o.o:u.Lli' o. 33
a. ~!.7(c5
"1e..
7. ' 11.0
1/.0 o. (3 I 6
O.llll. 2.3111
2."3'1'1 0. of-1S 1
0.0"31 Q.!
o· ~ II5
'"~
10. ,
104 /t,.. 'i!
/4--g 0.094-3
O.oq~~4- .2.{"~6
2.694-6 0 ·00f/10
o-OORTO 0.2542
o·.2S ~2..

/1.6
1/.' ':>.2-
/ .2 0.08'624
0.08'2.1 2.72.13
2.12.13 o . 00-14-1
0.00 71j.! o. 2.3
O. 2.llj.~
Li- (..

12.6,
/2..b /4-3
Ib.3 0.01937
0.01'131 2.19 t 2.
2·1'112- 0.00630
0.00630 o. :l.ll.1 .5
13.5 11.5
1-7..6 o.o/lj.Ol
0.01Lp:,7 2.E.62.2
2..Sb:2.2. o . oo~4-~
0.005'4-9 (:).z.racp
0·2.12.0
14.'+
11.1..4 (s.3
(7.3 ô.06/
0·06'1 4- 4- 2.4,4r
2.<to l:'t o0.· 00142-
004&2- 0.2-019
O.UlI~

'7
3

Totals n7
_.......
0.6% 4.3
o. {,! 4-3 is.
13 .63513
(;358 00,011s3
. 012.S3 L173
1.-,,73
e
Plot 36.
3{;"

Raw data
Raw data Transformed dato.
dat a.
.q H X Y
Y X2
X2 XY
6.7 8. f /) . 14'13, 2.0119
:z.o'll'l o.0222-3
0.0222.8 0.312..2..
0·0.12.2-
'l.S 10.7 0.111/0 2..I702
2·3102- 0.o in t.t.
0.01384 0. 2-7 89
0.!!..18'!
9.5 10. 'if 0.IO~3 0.01108
.2-37%
0.01108
2..31'15 02. 0S
0 . .2.!O.o5
10.b 12·5 2..525-7 0.00830
0 .0'143 .. :t.525r 0.008'10 o. 2.3'83
0·2.3S3-
I2.
12.' 14..3
14-.3 OO7P37 2.6603
0.01'137 .2.6b03 0.00 630
0.00'30 0.2- Is 1
a.2-II(
13.Ç
13.5 1Ç.Z
15.2- 0 .07 2.12- S
7 401 2.72..13 0.00549
0 · 00'>'+9 0·2.0 I b
/4.4
11f·4- /6.5
1,.5 00.069(4-tt. 2.S0314-
.06'14-"- 2.80 3 If. 0.00
0 .0 0u-g2-
... 82- 0. 1?
o. ?41
1~~1 1

Totals nn 7
Tcrbals 1 0.639 (.4-
0.68'1 lj. I7- 0.0'2',
Il. S-52.3
S"S".2!. o.o-i 2., I 1.6.,g-72..
/. b8"1.2..

Plot 36
~lot
----------------- .

3'
Raw data
Raw data rransformed
Transformed data
A
A 1-1
(.4 X
V'
4,4 V
Y X2
X2 XY
6·7
6.7 \?'l gl o. I 4-'1 !.
0- 14-9S .t.ISbl
A. IS (51 o.022.21
0 . 0.2.2.2.11 0.32
o. "32- 63
7.1" ".1 a. ill 6
O.I"!>,b ~.If.O
.2..4-0 Gc)1,,'1 0.0
o·on?1(11I o' 61
0·1./'1
/0.4>
/0.' /4. 6(:,
14-. 0.014-34.
~.''aIO
2.
O.0"l4-31J.6i3 1 o a.000
0.008~O "2.S.t.~
oo.. 7-5 2_,
/I. (D
fl· " /6,5
1~.5 o· g..3033
0. o0 Et62.1
Z .lJ033
,&(,;2../ 0-00-74a
0.0074-3 0-2-1+11
0·2..411
1r2-G
:1,,(.. ,g.
(8. 1 I 0-0793'7 2..8'1
0·07'13.7 2.g95-7$"'1 0.00610
0.00""10 0.2.2-73
0.2:1-'18
/U;
/ 3- 5. 20.0
2.0 .0 o .0 --74.oi .22.77
0.0,401 s7
·'1'Hl o.00.54.9
o .00$"i-'1 0-2.2-
0·2.2.. 17
19
/4.4-
14'4 ZI
:z.1 . °
0 0-0
0.0 6?4-4.
l.'1q.u. 3.0L.5
3·0 lJ.lJ.$ 0.00 4.8
0.00 2-
1J.82.. 0.2.11f 4--
0.2./ 4-
Totals n11 1'1 o.
Totals 0. 6814..
'84-3- /9:0/3
11.0135 0.07253
0.07).53 1.6'007
/.'1007
- 54
54--

Form 5'.1
Form 5.1 ommonslope
CQmmon -lo e and
and common
common intercept regression
intercept rearession models
models
Part I1
Part Plot data
datasummarization. Use as
summarization. Use as muy
many part 1 sheets
as necessary
as for all
necessary for all plots.
plots.
Data transformations used: X
X =. I /Ave
Aft" , /
Y=
Y =----------------------
Lopr
L09. HFV/7"-
He/flfl

...,....."...CMTO.Verasc,...V.GX32917.1.19.Y.I12,-725,11,217.23ares,P2f.....17.1=--,417SM2-,.......137-SM
riot
[Plot It-b
2... 6
Raw data
,taw data Transfo-rrned
Transf ormed data
data
9
A
A H X v
v X2 XY
/4.7
,6.1 1..1
2_1.1.( 0.0<;988 3.o 4.-9 3 0o.co
0.0 5922 ?,.0,+-93 .00 359
'?,S~ O. /g2.4:,
0."2..("
!L4
11., ,22.4-
2.2.4- 0
o .0 S..1 /al
";{"82- 3
.0S.68.2. 09 (I 0.0032.7e
0.00323 O.(
0.n6'
6-1
2o.6
20.' 2.5./
2.5 · 1 o.0485.
o .o4-g~4- ?,. 2.2.,.~ 0.002..v;
s.2_2-"Si.9 0.002.;;'" 0. t5,.:(,14-
0·'£104-
21.4
21.(' Z5.7
.2.S.-7 004.4.3c, ?.
0.04-{,30 -2,...2.465 0 . 00 2. 1
2-1,j.~~ 0.00.2.14- 1.4. o.
0 .'1503
So3
22.6
2.2.6 26.3
:z.b ·3 0.
0 ·0o 042-5
(j. IJ.2S' 3.H'I6
3.249 d 0.00
0.00l'l5'<t
19-5;9 0. 144-4
O. 144."
",. 4-
214-4
2 L7.7
:1..1 .7 o.o!,.. 018 3g.32
0. ocfr Oeig -1 If 0.00
. ;P.I4- /4..80
0.00 Ib80 0.1 6i
0.13.6/

Totals nn 6b
Totals 0.2.96s
O.2't6S 11,218
l't. :L18 '1
parawav magmas :
0.0 i495
0.0/4'15- o. '1 4- b 'if
0.'14.48
,
scrara.s...cooms.....t.nas_varft.atmacomuccrtares==mrcul

Plot S'2
52 -
Raw data Transf ormed
Transf ormed data
A H
II V
J(' Y
-2
x2 xy
XY
.-...........X... ...,...
21. 1
2-1-7 /S.. /1
1'1 0.04-60g
O .o~og 2.2959
.z.8'J !>'9 0.002-12.
0.002..12. 0.1 ?,?4-
0. 1 3,-& L-1-
22.4"
22. i?. 4-
19.4- 0.0442-5 2.·"('<;;3
2.743
0.0 4-1J.2-S' 0-00 i96
0.001'16 o. ,], r12-
0. 13 2.
23-5S'
21.· .20.0
2.0.0 o.04-2.S5
0 .o rr2.<;5 2-9957
02.'1"15'1 c'° t1181I
0 . 00 0.12.15
0 ·, 215
26.4
:26 · (, 22-3
.2.2. ·3 0.0375
O·0'37e;-q 'g. to 4-4
3./04-4 0.00
0.00lit.
Ilj. I t 0. rIIi Cl
o· ,-,
27.4
2. 7." 23.3
23 · 3 0.036,2
(1).036.23 3. I 1j..8 £
3.(114.4.; 0-00 (3!
0.00 III o.i/14-1
o. II 4- \
2g.S.
. 2.1l.~ 2. ... 2.
2 i-p- 2. 0. 035°5'
0.03$'0'1 3. (84,14-
3.1864- o.t.50 12..3
0.00 i2.. o. I I 18
2?.4If
2.9· 24-7
1..1+·7 0.) 31t2 /I
0.034-0 3.2..o4
3.l..o6l? o0.00
. on If
r/ 6 oo · to?
1091 1.._,I
Totals
Totals nn-, p.l.
0.2.77S'B
SS 21.503/
2.1. S03/ 0-0 f (00
0.01/00 o'~"""8

lot 1'f8
1P1ot Ng
Raw data Transformed data
2ransformed
A H X Y X2
X2 XI
XY
22;1
:t2.1 2.3
n.:?, 0.04405
0.0 4-14.05- 3.34.2a
3.34-.2.9 0.0019 br
0.0 0 194- 0. I 4- -11
0.1,+,3
2 3 - S'
23· 5 2-8 .'l
.2.8 .9 0.0 4-2.55
0.04-2.S'5' 3. 4,-18
3.?b'3g o.00t8(
0.0018/ 00.14.1
. 11,j.!.1\
2.4
:tS'. (, 314
3/·1 0.0 '3?0
0.0 '3'10" :1. k-3'2-
3. di_37 2, 00·00
. 00 i153
g3 c).1343
0.1540'3
26..5
J.(, .S' 3z.5
32.S' 0.03779- 3.4-812- 0.00 142_
3.4-8 12- 0.00142-
0.0>174- 0.131
0.13/i-t-
....
zg. c,
2J.b 33.0 6.0(4.--ri
33.0 3.4-965
b .o"?> 't"l' 3.4- 'lEo5 0.00
0.00l2.2.
12..2- o.1 1.2.2.3
0. 2. 2. S i
244
'J... 316
'/.4- 33.& 00. .c),3.4
0 'tIJ.OI
0I «.<:1 *<
3-.57 (+5 0.00 ///I 6(,.
C).oo o. if 51.5
0.1195
J
Totals A
Totals II 6
{, oc ..1.?::2..
/s1_ If4 AO. 634,z oo . OI:J
/1.D·'lb2. ao 768
10g 0-. 7"l7f
o rr7S
-- 55
55 --

Form
Form 5.1 ammon slone and
Common slone and common
common interce t regresE!j.on
j.ntercept re Te sion modell
models
Part
Part 22 Totals
Totals between plots and
between plots and coefficient
coefficient calculation
calculation

-
flan'
IXl:XY (IX) 2
.
Plot
IXY-gg
Plot .EXY-IX/Y x2'-j_22
IX2_(IX) IX2
S.L.X.L2
IX 2
2
12C-
n IY
EY
_____ _____ n n
-----...........--,......-.--......, ..... .. "P 9...,osiarali.G ...,.....,....,.....,...--.-..,==r _
3 -0.0"'''''1-83 0.ooSb'34-1'1 lb. ,fog 3
-0.0444.83 0.0°5sLi--77 j.7'3 6.4S{'18
6.4-5 6. r E 77 4,
1'/. 635S
(, $ 5"8

35 -0.0 414-51 0.00"'113~~


-0.04111-51 /5:9112
0.004,71395 15. 'H 1.2. 6.5 ;6,55
6·~5655 77 //.
/l . sszs
5"t;z3

3b
Sé -0.05g005
-0.0'5800$ 0.00 i6. "If?
S"634-i 16.
0.00 5634? 9?? /1 6. ta-5 613
6.Lt5b18 1"1 /7.013s
1~.OI3S 1

1f.6
4-6 -o.no314.1
-0 o. oooz 68.2 'I avic)61
.0038''-'" a..00026229 18.1'161 5.81 2.32
~.8"12.3Z 6 ici.ligl
1'1.2.18'1

5z
5"2- -0.0034.2.2.1o.000r334-8
-0.003t,.2.2.1 0.000 13311-B 21. ; 5(:,31
:l.1..S"(.:n 6. '715°6
b.'i,S06 1 21.
-ZI. 60
<;0~1 1 '

19s -0.00 /Son' o.000


I,}S -0.00.Sof8 0.00001737 20. 4 i 9'It;
.2.0·41
011,37 ~."'f4-fj'21
5. cl ti- ?2. I 6 '1 &2-
Zo. lo(,3
.2.0. b2,

,
,

Totals 1
!IT
It Eti B .7_0-
-O.I1:Z
t5:27 b ~
1 4,
2]
0 .0 165. it
0.0(65(.4- ~I/O.'2..1
1Ho. 12:7 Ai
lt-5
SF.2.01÷5
l!J'Sl?20
5
O ~ 1/1>.560
[2Jlt-o n, --
f/6.5 60

Common slopeb b= =(1)/(2)


(1)/(2) - o. 5.2.%
== -O. 152.~bj;'S",t;
Common slope 0. of 65(.5 = -'l.22.2.
SC>- - ilo42,1)
UI" . S"b /f0.,2.1)
Common intercept aa ==( («6)-()/«5)-(4))
Commonintercept 6 )-( 3) )/( ( 5 )-( 4) ) = Opo - 38.2.,,"'S)
= +(11-0- 38. 204-5)

= 3.5'83
-- 56
56 --

Figure 5.6
5.6

Data from 6 permanent


pennanent sample plots in Cupressus
lusitanica stands in Kenya.
lusitanica stands Kenya. Used in text example
Used in example
for fitting site index
index curves
curves by nested regression
by nested regression

.1,-93
--- e3Measurement
Measurement points
points & &
... - .. -.'
,. "8
plot number
plot number for
for PSP
PSP
,,
,,
,.,
30 ,
.'
e
,.'
o/

, , ~"'"
4.4o

,0"
e'
..'
e'-
,a'
, , dr
.052,

, ,,
,,-' ,
,0/
0/
"34
.3l. 0' ,,
/
,·e
I

eoI ,e 3 e.'
, ,I/ ,,."
,41(

p e'
Ie.' .35
/5
15
,~
/I/
r "
/ dp,
I
I~"
.'
/

/e .",.
..,
e/I I

.'
/' ,,;
" ,

,.
eV
//
//
II t
,
4,
..
e , ,- ,.
I

+
# .,.-.
10
.• ,
,
i/I ,.
0/, /
/
I

10 I~
IS 20
2.0 2s
25 30
(years)
Age (years)
Form ;-.2
Form £.2 Transformations
Transformations totoage
ageand
andheight
heightdata
data from
fromPSP's
PSP'stotofit
fit
k
parameter in
parameter in Schumacher equation by
Schumacher equation commonslope
by CORmon slopeestimator
estimator

I J A·I) da bb c( X·IJ
X H··I) d e f 9 h y.
Yrj !
IJ
a d//
tY2 ~
!

~o' .:!I.
I~
o~ 34 in cc
In Sum Diff ~
-
Sum Diff
Off Height
Heiuht In
in hh
~ « Age - 2 J g ,

1
1 1
; i F7
!fo.I !W''""~,,~ ;~~;~.:.~ .:
·=;:~,:.~~~i .;~;~~.{~;;
...:,-it....,,_ .-------:-7,,-.3.,,..._::::,-6:: Pi.
21.11 .
~r> .,~:: ' :~; 'i-;'_ .;f.;;:~ r;"'~~~:~- ~:>~.':':" ~r-~ =1112 ~ '~-'"' i;~"f'~ <·"-~.,~{~~~1~~~:
__",,'if!!.-:-_" :'':.~-.>:'
'Jl 1
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