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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment Third Edition Paul Goodwin The Management School, University of Bath George Wright Durham Business School, University of Durham ® John Wiley & Sons, Ltd This ach en copied unde Retce orn ACCESS COPYRIGHT. ‘or further copying of this material is strictly prohibited.” September 2005. Copyright© 2104 Jon Wiley & Sons Ld, The Arius, Southem Gate, Chichester, ‘West Sussex POI? 850, England Telephone (+4) 126 79777 Ena (fet orders and customer sevice enquiiscx-book@viley ok Vit our HomePage on wor wieyeaseye Sn oF wor the) om Reprned May 2004 All Righs Reserved. No part this publication may be reproduced, sored ina retieval item of traremited in any form orby any means, econ mechanical ‘moning scamming or obese, cept under the tema of he Copyright Designs and Peters Act 1988 or der the em of omesnved bythe Copyright Licensing Agency Lt 90 Totenham Court Road, London WIT ALP, UK, without the pension i writing of Che Publisher. Requests tthe Publisher shoud be addressed tthe Persians Departnen John Wiley & Sons Ut, The ‘Acum, Southern Gate, Chichster, Wert Sussex POT 850, Brghnd oc railed to pemnreg@wile c.u, ofanad to (4) 1243 7052. ‘This publication i designe to provide accurate and authosative infomation in gard to the subject matter covered. t's lon the understanding thatthe Publier sno ngage in “edering profenional service I profesional advice or oter expert asetance i require, the ‘servi ofa competet profesional shoul be sought. Other Wey Editorial Oicrs Job Wiley & Soe In, 11 River Stet, Hoboken Nj 0700, USA Joey Ban, 909 Macht Steet San Franco, CA 9108-171, USA ‘Wiley-VCH Veang Gabi, Bouchats,12, D