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MISSOURI SENATE TOPLINES

CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENT
N equals 600 respondents
Fielded October 11-13, 2018
MoE ± 4.0%

My name is _______________ of a national survey research firm. We’re talking with people like you
today across Missouri and would like to ask you a few questions on a confidential basis. You have been
selected randomly to participate in a survey and have a rare opportunity to voice your opinions. I am not
selling or promoting any product and I am not asking for a donation; I simply want to know what you think
and how you feel. (DO NOT PAUSE)

1. In elections, do you generally vote... (RANDOMIZE)

41% Republican
21% Independent or Unaffiliated
33% Democratic
6% Unsure / refused (vol)
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IF VALUE 2 (Independent) IN QUESTION 1, ASK:
1_A. Although you vote for the person and not one of the major parties – when you have had to
choose between two candidates of whom you knew little about, have you tended to vote for …
(ROTATE)

N123
32% The Republican candidate
39% The Democratic candidate
12% Other / won’t vote for either (vol)
17% Unsure / refused (vol)
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2. Now looking ahead to the upcoming election in November, how likely would you say you are to
vote in the election this November? Would you say you are… (ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM,
BOTTOM TO TOP)

96% Very Likely
4% Somewhat Likely
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3. Now, thinking about the election for Senate that will be held in November – If the election for
Senate were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for …
(ROTATE CHOICES) (Probe: And would you DEFINTELY vote for the Republican/Democrat
candidate or just PROBABLY?)

44% Total Republican
39% Definitely Republican
5% Probably Republican

8% Undecided (vol)

47% Total Democrat
10% Probably Democrat
37% Definitely Democrat

1% Refused (vol)

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Missouri Senate TOPLINE
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____________________________________________________________________________________

IF “UNDECIDED” IN PREVIOUS QUESTION, ASK:
4. And which party’s candidate do you lean toward at this time? (ROTATE CHOICES)

N51
31% The Republican Candidate
13% The Democrat Candidate

36% Hard Undecided (vol)
20% Neither (vol)
- Refused (vol)

____________________________________________________________________________________

Now thinking about President Trump…

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
(Probe: If choice made, ask: Is that strongly or somewhat (approve / disapprove)?)

56% Total Approve
43% Strongly Approve
12% Somewhat Approve

43% Total Disapprove
5% Somewhat Disapprove
38% Strongly Disapprove

2% Unsure / refused (vol)
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NAME RECOGNITION AND FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read
each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and then tell me if you have a favorable
or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a
particular person, just tell me and we’ll move on. (RANDOMIZE IN SECTION)

(ASK FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE): And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of
that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

7. Josh Hawley

92% Total Name ID
83% Hard Name ID

45% Total Favorable
31% Strongly Favorable
14% Somewhat Favorable

38% Total Unfavorable
8% Somewhat Unfavorable
30% Strongly Unfavorable

9% Heard of / No Opinion
6% Never Heard Of
1% Do Not Know (vol)
* Refused (vol)

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Missouri Senate TOPLINE
2
____________________________________________________________________________________

8. Claire McCaskill

99% Total Name ID
96% Hard Name ID

48% Total Favorable
37% Strongly Favorable
11% Somewhat Favorable

48% Total Unfavorable
13% Somewhat Unfavorable
34% Strongly Unfavorable

3% Heard of / No Opinion
1% Never Heard Of
* Do Not Know (vol)
* Refused (vol)
____________________________________________________________________________________

BALLOT TEST

9. If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between
(ROTATE) Republican Josh Hawley, and Democrat Claire McCaskill?

(Probe: And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For [Insert Candidate]?)

(Probe Those Who Say Undecided: Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?)

50% Total Josh Hawley
44% Definitely Josh Hawley
5% Probably Josh Hawley
1% Lean Josh Hawley

47% Total Claire McCaskill
1% Lean Claire McCaskill
10% Probably Claire McCaskill
36% Definitely Claire McCaskill

3% Hard Undecided/Do Not Know (vol)
* Other (Please Specify) (Record Verbatim) (vol)
* Would Not Vote (vol)
* Refused (vol)
____________________________________________________________________________________

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Missouri Senate TOPLINE
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ADDITIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS
Finally, I would like to ask you a few confidential statistical questions, for generic classification purposes
only.

10. In the Presidential election in 2016, please tell me who you voted for. As you’ll recall, the
candidates were… (Randomize choices)

57% Donald Trump, Republican
38% Hillary Clinton, Democrat
1% Gary Johnson, Libertarian
1% Jill Stein, Green Party
1% Other names (vol)
1% Did not vote (vol)
1% Refused (vol)
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11. In which year were you born? (Place into category)

23% 18-34
31% 35-54
19% 55-64
28% 65+
- Refused
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12. And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic background? (READ AND
ROTATE)

78% White or Caucasian
11% African-American or Black
1% Hispanic or Latino
2% Asian or Pacific Islander
6% Multi-Racial or Other (vol)
2% Do Not Know (vol)
1% Refused (vol)
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13. County

18% St. Louis
7% St. Charles
6% Jackson
5% Greene
5% St. Louis City
4% Clay
4% Jefferson
3% Boone
48% Rest of State

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14. Gender

48% Male
52% Female
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the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund
Missouri Senate TOPLINE
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