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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL OCTOBER 16th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto
• Four Wards To Watch
16th October 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of four surveys conducted in the wards three levels of government, President and CEO
of Beaches-East York, Don Valley East, Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
Scarborough Southwest, and Toronto-St. international public affairs.
Paul’s that were conducted between October
10th and 11th among residents of these wards, Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
aged 18 years of age or older. The survey Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
was conducted using automated telephone snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
interviewed on both landlines and cellular was the only polling firm to correctly predict
phones. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The sampling frame was derived from both predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
a national telephone directory compiled elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
by Mainstreet Research from various special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
commerically available sources and random a member of the World Association for Public
digit dialing. Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third CONTACT INFORMATION
party. In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
The margin of error and sample size for each quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
survey is as follows:
Beaches-East York: n=572, +/- 4.08% In Toronto:
Don Valley East: n=479, +/- 4.46% Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
Scarborough Southwest: n=615, +/- 3.93% joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Toronto-St. Paul’s: n=608, +/- 3.96%
Find us online at:
(full methodology appears at the end of this www.mainstreetresearch.ca
report) twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
VIRTUAL TIES IN TORONTO ST. PAUL’S AND SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST, MINNAN-
WONG AND KELLWAY WELL AHEAD

16 October 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Joe Mihevc and Josh Matlow are in a statistical tie in the
council race in Toronto St. Paul’s, as are Gary Crawford and Michelle Holland-Berardinetti in
Scarborough Southwest.

Those are the second set of findings of a series of new Mainstreet Research surveys of
Toronto wards in the lead up to the October 22nd election. The polls were conducted on
October 10 and 11th.

“We have another two races that are too close to call,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO
of Mainstreet Research. “While Matlow and Crawford have narrow leads in their respective
races, all four candidates will need strong finishes and get-out-the vote efforts to win, as it
is impossible to rule out victories by either Mihevc or Holland-Berardinetti.”

Crawford leads Holland-Berardinetti by 2.8%, while Matlow has a slender 1.8% lead over
Mihevc. Both leads are within the respective margins of error.

“These polls were done before John Tory’s endorsement of Mihevc, so the effect of that
endorsement on the Toronto-St. Paul’s race still remains to be seen,” said Maggi.

In Beaches-East York, former MP Matthew Kellway maintains a solid lead with 43.7% support,
with Brad Bradford, another Tory-endorsed candidate, coming in at nearly 32%.

“The Matlow campaign will carefully look at these results in Beaches-East York as they show
the potential impact of a Tory endorsement”, continued Maggi. “We didn’t list Bradford as
an option in our last Beaches-East York poll and he could not have been this high if you look
at the “another candidate” totals in our previous poll.”

“Tory’s endorsement has certainly given Bradford a big boost, and could give Mihevc the
win if there is a similar impact in Toronto-St. Paul’s.”

The fourth race polled was Don Valley East, where incumbent Denzil Minnan-Wong has
43.2% support, while former MPP and Ontario Liberal cabinet minister David Caplan has
24.3% among decided voters.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters All Voters Decided
Beaches-East Voters
York

19.1%
21.4% 21.4%

33.1% 33.1% 31.9%

1.9% 1.9%
1.6% 1.6%
All Voters All Voters Decided Voters

2.9%
2.4%
12.9% 29.2%
12.9% 29.2%
43.7%

Brad Bradford David Del Grande Brad Bradford
Diane Dyson David Del Grande Diane
BradDyson
Bradford David Del Grande Diane Dyson

Matthew Kellway Another Candidate Matthew Kellway
Undecided Another Candidate Undecided
Matthew Kellway Another Candidate

All Voters All VotersDon Decided
Valley EastVoters

7.3% 7.3% 4.2%
9.4%
3.5%
5.1%

31.7% 31.7% 16.5% 16.5%

24.3%

All Voters All Voters Decided Voters
7.2% 7.2%

2.7% 2.7%
43.2%
2.4% 2.4%
3.5% 3.5% 10.3%

28.8% 28.8%

Aria Alavi David Caplan StephenAria Alavi
Ksiazek David Minnan-Wong
Denzil Caplan Stephen Ksiazek
Aria Alavi Denzil Minnan-Wong
David Caplan Stephen Ksiazek Denzil Minnan-Wong

Dimitre Popov Michael Woulfe DimitreCandidate
Another Popov Michael Woulfe
Undecided Another Candidate Undecided
Dimitre Popov Michael Woulfe Another Candidate
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters AllScarborough
Voters Decided Voters
Southwest
8.8% 8.8% 11.9% 12.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.1% 2.9%
28.9% 28.9%

25.9% 25.9%
All Voters All Voters Decided Voters

33.5%
8.7% 8.7% 36.3%

2% 2%

23.6% 23.6%

Gerard Arbour Mohsin Bhuiyan Gerard
Gary Arbour
Crawford Mohsin Bhuiyan GaryGerard
Crawford
Arbour Mohsin Bhuiyan Gary Crawford

Michelle Holland-Berardinetti Michelle Holland-Berardinetti
Suman Roy Another Candidate Suman Roy Michelle
Another Candidate
Holland-Berardinetti Suman Roy Another Candidate

Undecided Undecided

All Voters All Voters Decided
Toronto-St. Voters
Paul’s
1.9% 1.9% 2.8%
2.4% 2.4% 3.2%
4.1% 4.1% 5.6%
1.8% 1.8%
2.8%
28.7% 28.7%

41.9%

All Voters 31.9% All Voters 31.9%Decided Voters

43.7%

29.2% 29.2%

Elizabeth Cook Artur Langu Elizabeth Cook
Ian Lipton Artur Langu
Bob Murphy Ian Lipton
ElizabethBob Murphy Artur Langu
Cook Ian Lipton Bob Murphy

Josh Matlow Joe Mihevc Josh Matlow
Undecided Joe Mihevc Undecided Josh Matlow Joe Mihevc
Breakouts
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election
were held today?
Beaches-East York
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Brad Bradford 21.4% 21.2% 21.5% 18.7% 19.9% 20.4% 27%
David Del Grande 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 3.2% 2.2% 0.5% 1.4%
Diane Dyson 1.6% 1.3% 1.8% - 1.2% 3.9% 1.5%
Matthew Kellway 29.2% 30.4% 28.1% 34.4% 27.7% 27.5% 26.4%
Another Candidate 12.9% 12.2% 13.5% 9.2% 18.8% 11.3% 12.5%
Undecided 33.1% 32.8% 33.3% 34.4% 30.2% 36.4% 31.2%
Unweighted Frequency 572 229 343 32 86 176 278
Weighted Frequency 572 269 303 158 142 137 136

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Brad Bradford 31.9% 31.5% 32.3% 28.5% 28.5% 32.1% 39.2%
David Del Grande 2.9% 3.2% 2.6% 4.9% 3.2% 0.9% 2.1%
Diane Dyson 2.4% 1.9% 2.8% - 1.7% 6.1% 2.1%
Matthew Kellway 43.7% 45.5% 42.1% 52.5% 39.7% 43.1% 38.4%
Another Candidate 19.1% 17.9% 20.2% 14.1% 26.9% 17.7% 18.2%
Unweighted Frequency 384 156 228 21 60 112 191
Weighted Frequency 384 181 203 106 95 92 91

Don Valley East
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Aria Alavi 7.3% 9.1% 5% 21.5% 1.5% 0.7% 3.9%
David Caplan 16.5% 17.1% 15.8% 17.4% 9.1% 20.5% 19.5%
Stephen Ksiazek 7.2% 10.1% 3.8% 12.2% 5.3% 7.6% 3.1%
Denzil Minnan-Wong 28.8% 25.5% 32.7% 22.6% 37.4% 23.3% 32.4%
Dimitre Popov 3.5% 4.9% 1.8% 4.1% 3.8% 2.9% 3.1%
Michael Woulfe 2.4% 1.6% 3.3% 2.6% - 3.6% 3.5%
Another Candidate 2.7% 2.4% 3% - 5.3% 2.5% 3.1%
Undecided 31.7% 29.3% 34.5% 19.6% 37.6% 39% 31.5%
Unweighted Frequency 479 178 301 30 53 115 281
Weighted Frequency 479 260 219 130 123 117 108

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Aria Alavi 9.4% 11.4% 7.1% 26.7% 2.4% 1.2% 5.6%
David Caplan 24.3% 24.4% 24.1% 21.7% 14.6% 33.5% 28.4%
Stephen Ksiazek 10.3% 13.8% 6.2% 15% 8.5% 12.3% 4.5%
Denzil Minnan-Wong 43.2% 37.4% 50% 28.3% 59.7% 38.2% 47.4%
Dimitre Popov 5.1% 6.9% 2.9% 5% 6.1% 4.7% 4.5%
Michael Woulfe 3.5% 2.4% 4.8% 3.3% - 5.9% 5.1%
Another Candidate 4.2% 3.6% 4.9% - 8.5% 4.1% 4.5%
Unweighted Frequency 322 115 207 23 34 69 196
Weighted Frequency 322 175 147 68 83 79 73
Scarborough Southwest
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Gerard Arbour 8.8% 10.6% 7.1% 13.7% 7.3% 7.3% 5%
Mohsin Bhuiyan 2.1% 3.4% 1% 2.8% 1.1% 2.9% 1.3%
Gary Crawford 25.9% 28.3% 23.8% 19.1% 21.6% 27.7% 39.5%
Michelle Holland-Berardinetti 23.6% 17.3% 29.2% 23.7% 21.3% 24% 25.6%
Suman Roy 2% 2.9% 1.3% - 4.9% 3.4% -
Another Candidate 8.7% 10.7% 6.9% 16.5% 5.9% 5.1% 4.7%
Undecided 28.9% 26.8% 30.7% 24.2% 37.9% 29.7% 23.8%
Unweighted Frequency 615 254 361 37 84 178 316
Weighted Frequency 615 291 324 187 150 156 122

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Gerard Arbour 12.2% 14.5% 10.2% 17.9% 11.6% 10.4% 6.6%
Mohsin Bhuiyan 2.9% 4.4% 1.6% 3.6% 1.9% 4% 1.7%
Gary Crawford 36.3% 38.7% 34.2% 25.1% 34.7% 39.3% 51.9%
Michelle Holland-Berardinetti 33.5% 23.8% 42.1% 31.9% 34.5% 34.3% 33.6%
Suman Roy 3.1% 4.3% 2% - 7.7% 4.8% -
Another Candidate 11.9% 14.2% 9.9% 21.5% 9.6% 7.2% 6.2%
Unweighted Frequency 446 185 261 28 52 125 241
Weighted Frequency 446 211 235 136 109 113 88

Toronto-St. Paul’s
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Elizabeth Cook 1.9% 1% 2.9% 3.1% 1.9% 0.5% 1.5%
Artur Langu 2.4% 4% 0.5% 6.3% - 0.9% 0.9%
Ian Lipton 4.1% 4.7% 3.2% 9.4% 0.9% 2% 2%
Bob Murphy 1.8% 1.2% 2.6% 3.1% 1.9% 1% 0.9%
Josh Matlow 31.9% 35.5% 27.5% 25.3% 22.2% 37% 46.9%
Joe Mihevc 29.2% 29% 29.4% 24.9% 34.6% 31.8% 26.8%
Undecided 28.7% 24.4% 34% 28% 38.3% 26.8% 21.1%
Unweighted Frequency 608 193 415 22 73 161 352
Weighted Frequency 608 335 273 191 149 131 137

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Elizabeth Cook 2.8% 1.5% 4.4% 4.8% 3% 0.7% 2%
Artur Langu 3.2% 5.2% 0.7% 8.3% - 1.4% 1%
Ian Lipton 5.6% 6.1% 5% 13.1% 1.7% 2.5% 2.5%
Bob Murphy 2.8% 1.8% 3.9% 4.8% 3% 1.2% 1.2%
Josh Matlow 43.7% 46.6% 40.2% 33.3% 35.7% 50.8% 60.1%
Joe Mihevc 41.9% 38.8% 45.8% 35.7% 56.6% 43.4% 33.3%
Unweighted Frequency 455 145 310 15 43 115 282
Weighted Frequency 455 251 204 143 111 98 103
Questionnaire
On October 22 2018, you Gerard Arbour
will have a chance to vote Mohsin Bhuiyan
in your municipal election. Gary Crawford
Which candidate for City Michelle Holland-Berardinetti
Council would you vote, or Suman Roy
are leaning towards voting Another Candidate
for, for if an election were Another Candidate
held today? Undecided
(Beaches-East York - first
four responses randomized) (Toronto-St. Paul’s - first six
Brad Bradford responses randomized)
David Del Grande Elizabeth Cook
Diane Dyson Artur Langu
Matthew Kellway Ian Lipton
Another Candidate Bob Murphy
Undecided Josh Matlow
Joe Mihevc
(Don Valley East - first six Undecided
responses randomized)
Aria Alavi What is your gender?
David Caplan Male
Stephen Ksiazek Female
Denzil Minnan-Wong
Dimitre Popov What is your age group?
Michael Woulfe 18 to 34 years of age
Another Candidate 35 to 49 years of age
Undecided 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
(Scarborough Southwest
- first seven responses
randomized)
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of four surveys conducted in the wards of
Beaches-East York, Don Valley East, Scarborough Southwest, and Toronto-St. Paul’s that
were conducted between October 10th and 11th among residents of these wards, aged 18
years of age or older. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The
survey is intended to represent the voting population of the four wards surveyed.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error at the 95% confidence level and sample size for each survey is as follows:
Beaches-East York: n=572, +/- 4.08%, Don Valley East: n=479, +/- 4.46%, Scarborough
Southwest: n=615, +/- 3.93%Toronto-St. Paul’s: n=608, +/- 3.96%. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. Wherever a candidate received less than 1.5%,
his or her estimates were folded into the “another candidate” column.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.