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Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate

October 2018 PAGE 1
Table 1-1
QUESTION 1:
Do state and county records show you to be registered as...

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN 217 50 66 38 63 217 - - 210 7 171 159 12 20 7 13 26 208 192 16 7 4 3
36% 39% 37% 33% 35% 100% - - 37% 20% 66% 70% 39% 7% 3% 17% 35% 56% 59% 35% 3% 2% 11%
GH j MNOPQ MNOPQ NOp O NOP TUVW TUVW UVW
INDEPENDENT OR UNAFFILIATED 114 25 45 11 32 - - 114 101 13 49 36 13 45 28 17 19 72 61 12 39 28 10
19% 19% 25% 10% 18% - - 100% 18% 37% 19% 16% 41% 17% 15% 22% 26% 19% 18% 25% 19% 15% 41%
D d FG i KLNO rsuV

DEMOCRATIC 250 49 63 62 76 - 250 - 235 15 33 28 4 188 147 41 27 79 65 14 161 149 12
42% 39% 35% 55% 42% - 100% - 42% 42% 13% 12% 14% 71% 79% 52% 36% 21% 20% 30% 77% 82% 46%
bCe FH KLMPQ KLMPQ KLM KLM RSTW RSTW RS

UNSURE / REFUSED 20 3 5 3 9 - - - 20 - 6 4 2 11 4 7 2 15 10 5 2 1 1
3% 2% 3% 2% 5% - - - 3% - 2% 2% 7% 4% 2% 9% 3% 4% 3% 11% 1% 1% 3%
J l UV v uv

(REPUBLICAN - DEMOCRATIC) -33 - 3 -24 -13 217 -250 - -26 -7 138 130 8 -168 -141 -27 -1 130 127 2 -154 -145 -9
-6% - 2% -21% -7% 100% -100% - -5% -22% 54% 58% 25% -64% -76% -35% -1% 35% 39% 5% -74% -79% -35%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 2
Table 1-2
QUESTION 1:
Do state and county records show you to be registered as...

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN 217 4 4 213 96 117 159 37 69 136 209 190 173 37 5 213 2 1 -
36% 11% 2% 51% 47% 55% 63% 13% 21% 55% 36% 36% 64% 13% 25% 52% 1% 3% 16%
H I NO QRS
INDEPENDENT OR UNAFFILIATED 114 16 24 88 54 34 46 55 63 46 110 99 46 56 3 83 14 16 -
19% 39% 14% 21% 26% 16% 18% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 17% 19% 15% 20% 9% 63% 9%
C F Q PQS

DEMOCRATIC 250 18 148 97 44 53 41 176 186 59 237 215 43 189 11 101 139 7 2
42% 45% 84% 23% 22% 25% 16% 63% 56% 24% 41% 41% 16% 64% 57% 24% 89% 29% 69%
B G J M M PR Pr

UNSURE / REFUSED 20 2 1 18 10 7 8 10 14 5 20 18 8 11 1 16 2 1 -
3% 6% - 4% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 1% 6% 6%
q

(REPUBLICAN - DEMOCRATIC) -33 -14 -144 116 52 64 118 -139 -117 76 -28 -25 129 -152 -6 112 -137 -7 -1
-6% -34% -82% 28% 26% 30% 46% -50% -35% 31% -5% -5% 48% -52% -31% 27% -87% -26% -54%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 3
Table 1-3
QUESTION 1:
Do state and county records show you to be registered as...

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN 217 200 3 4 3 5 98 119 98 119 - - - -
36% 38% 11% 64% 49% 29% 34% 38% 100% 100% - - - -
C c KLMN KLMN

INDEPENDENT OR UNAFFILIATED 114 89 7 2 3 7 66 48 - - - - 66 48
19% 17% 29% 27% 51% 44% 23% 15% - - - - 100% 100%
h IJKL IJKL
DEMOCRATIC 250 225 14 1 - 4 113 137 - - 113 137 - -
42% 42% 60% 9% - 27% 39% 44% - - 100% 100% - -
DE DE e IJMN IJMN

UNSURE / REFUSED 20 19 - - - - 10 9 - - - - - -
3% 3% - - - - 4% 3% - - - - - -
CDEF

(REPUBLICAN - DEMOCRATIC) -33 -24 -11 4 3 - -15 -18 98 119 -113 -137 - -
-6% -5% -49% 55% 49% 2% -5% -6% 100% 100% -100% -100% - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 4
Table 2-1
QUESTION 2:
Now looking ahead to the upcoming election in November, how likely would you say you are to vote in the election this November? Would you say you are...

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

VERY LIKELY 565 117 166 112 170 210 235 101 565 - 242 216 26 250 180 70 71 352 310 42 196 172 25
94% 92% 92% 99% 95% 97% 94% 89% 100% - 94% 95% 84% 95% 97% 89% 94% 94% 95% 90% 94% 94% 97%
Ce H J m
SOMEWHAT LIKELY 35 10 14 1 10 7 15 13 - 35 16 11 5 14 6 8 4 22 18 4 12 11 1
6% 8% 8% 1% 5% 3% 6% 11% - 100% 6% 5% 16% 5% 3% 11% 6% 6% 5% 10% 6% 6% 3%
D d F I o

(VERY LIKELY - SOMEWHAT 531 107 152 111 161 203 221 88 565 -35 226 205 21 235 174 62 67 330 292 38 185 161 24
LIKELY) 88% 85% 84% 98% 89% 93% 88% 77% 100% -100% 88% 90% 67% 89% 94% 79% 88% 88% 89% 81% 89% 88% 95%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 5
Table 2-2
QUESTION 2:
Now looking ahead to the upcoming election in November, how likely would you say you are to vote in the election this November? Would you say you are...

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

VERY LIKELY 565 39 166 391 193 198 241 263 316 231 547 495 256 278 16 393 148 20 2
94% 95% 94% 94% 95% 94% 95% 95% 95% 94% 95% 95% 95% 95% 81% 95% 95% 78% 84%
R r
SOMEWHAT LIKELY 35 2 10 24 11 13 12 14 16 15 28 26 14 16 4 20 9 6 -
6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 19% 5% 5% 22% 16%
Pq

(VERY LIKELY - SOMEWHAT 531 37 156 367 182 185 229 249 300 216 518 468 242 263 12 374 140 14 2
LIKELY) 88% 91% 88% 88% 89% 87% 91% 90% 90% 88% 90% 90% 90% 89% 61% 90% 89% 55% 67%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 6
Table 2-3
QUESTION 2:
Now looking ahead to the upcoming election in November, how likely would you say you are to vote in the election this November? Would you say you are...

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

VERY LIKELY 565 503 21 7 5 16 274 292 98 112 106 129 59 41
94% 94% 90% 99% 75% 100% 95% 93% 100% 94% 94% 94% 91% 86%
B JLMN

SOMEWHAT LIKELY 35 30 2 - 2 - 13 22 - 7 7 8 6 7
6% 6% 10% 1% 25% - 5% 7% - 6% 6% 6% 9% 14%
F I I I I

(VERY LIKELY - SOMEWHAT 531 472 19 6 3 16 261 270 98 105 100 121 53 35
LIKELY) 88% 89% 80% 97% 49% 100% 91% 86% 100% 88% 88% 89% 81% 72%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 7
Table 3-1
QUESTION 3:
Now, thinking about the election for Senate that will be held in November - If the election for Senate were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting
for... And would you DEFINTELY vote for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL REPUBLICAN 258 57 88 41 71 171 33 49 242 16 258 227 31 - - - - 247 229 17 9 3 6
---------------- 43% 45% 49% 36% 40% 79% 13% 43% 43% 46% 100% 100% 100% - - - - 66% 70% 37% 5% 2% 24%
d GH G NOPQ NOPQ NOPQ TUVW TUVW UV uV

DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN 227 51 76 37 63 159 28 36 216 11 227 227 - - - - - 224 214 10 2 - 2
38% 40% 42% 32% 35% 73% 11% 32% 38% 31% 88% 100% - - - - - 60% 65% 22% 1% - 8%
GH G MNOPQ KMNOP TUVW TUVW UV
Q
PROBABLY REPUBLICAN 31 7 12 5 8 12 4 13 26 5 31 - 31 - - - - 23 15 7 7 3 4
5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 6% 2% 11% 5% 15% 12% - 100% - - - - 6% 5% 16% 4% 2% 16%
g G LNOPQ KLNOP V suV
Q

UNDECIDED 75 10 21 16 28 26 27 19 71 4 - - - - - - 75 60 44 16 14 9 4
13% 8% 12% 14% 16% 12% 11% 17% 13% 13% - - - - - - 100% 16% 13% 34% 7% 5% 18%
KLMNO UV UV RSUV
P

TOTAL DEMOCRAT 264 59 70 55 80 20 188 45 250 14 - - - 264 186 78 - 68 55 13 182 168 15
-------------- 44% 47% 39% 48% 45% 9% 75% 40% 44% 41% - - - 100% 100% 100% - 18% 17% 28% 88% 92% 58%
FH F KLMQ KLMQ KLMQ RSTW RSTW RST

PROBABLY DEMOCRAT 78 16 20 9 33 13 41 17 70 8 - - - 78 - 78 - 41 34 7 30 24 5
13% 12% 11% 8% 18% 6% 16% 15% 12% 24% - - - 30% - 100% - 11% 10% 15% 14% 13% 21%
D F F KLMOQ KLMNO
Q

DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT 186 43 50 45 48 7 147 28 180 6 - - - 186 186 - - 27 21 6 152 143 9
31% 34% 28% 40% 26% 3% 59% 25% 32% 17% - - - 70% 100% - - 7% 6% 13% 73% 78% 37%
cE FH F KLMPQ KLMNP RSTW RSTW RSt
Q

REFUSED 3 - 1 1 1 - 2 - 3 - - - - - - - - - - - 2 2 -
- - - 1% - - 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1% 1% -

(TOTAL REPUBLICAN - TOTAL -6 -2 18 -13 -9 151 -155 4 -8 2 258 227 31 -264 -186 -78 - 179 175 4 -173 -164 -9
DEMOCRAT) -1% -1% 10% -12% -5% 70% -62% 3% -1% 5% 100% 100% 100% -100% -100% -100% - 48% 53% 9% -83% -90% -34%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 8
Table 3-2
QUESTION 3:
Now, thinking about the election for Senate that will be held in November - If the election for Senate were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting
for... And would you DEFINTELY vote for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY?

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL REPUBLICAN 258 9 2 256 116 140 220 16 58 184 248 229 228 23 4 245 8 3 1
---------------- 43% 23% 1% 62% 57% 66% 87% 6% 18% 75% 43% 44% 84% 8% 19% 59% 5% 13% 59%
C H I NO QR QR

DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN 227 3 - 227 99 127 202 9 43 171 220 204 207 15 2 218 6 1 1
38% 6% - 55% 49% 60% 80% 3% 13% 70% 38% 39% 77% 5% 11% 53% 4% 4% 59%
e H I NO QR QR

PROBABLY REPUBLICAN 31 7 2 29 16 13 18 7 15 13 28 25 21 8 2 27 1 2 -
5% 16% 1% 7% 8% 6% 7% 2% 5% 5% 5% 5% 8% 3% 9% 7% 1% 10% -
C H N QS
UNDECIDED 75 5 10 65 26 39 17 44 48 25 72 61 29 29 11 58 12 5 -
13% 12% 6% 16% 13% 18% 7% 16% 14% 10% 13% 12% 11% 10% 59% 14% 8% 21% -
G MN qS S S

TOTAL DEMOCRAT 264 26 163 94 62 32 16 215 225 34 252 228 14 240 4 109 136 17 1
-------------- 44% 64% 92% 23% 31% 15% 6% 77% 68% 14% 44% 44% 5% 82% 21% 26% 87% 66% 41%
B f dF G J MO m PRS P

PROBABLY DEMOCRAT 78 9 23 50 32 18 11 56 64 14 74 67 5 68 1 53 19 5 -
13% 23% 13% 12% 16% 9% 5% 20% 19% 6% 13% 13% 2% 23% 6% 13% 12% 19% 6%
f G J MO

DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT 186 16 140 43 30 13 4 159 162 20 178 161 9 172 3 55 118 12 1
31% 40% 79% 10% 15% 6% 2% 57% 49% 8% 31% 31% 3% 59% 15% 13% 75% 47% 35%
B F G J MO PRS P

REFUSED 3 1 2 1 - 1 - 2 - 2 3 2 - 1 - 1 1 - -
- 2% 1% - - - - 1% - 1% - - - 1% 1% - 1% - -

(TOTAL REPUBLICAN - TOTAL -6 -17 -161 162 53 109 205 -199 -167 151 -4 - 214 -217 - 136 -129 -14 -
DEMOCRAT) -1% -41% -91% 39% 26% 51% 81% -72% -50% 61% -1% - 79% -74% -1% 33% -82% -52% 17%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 9
Table 3-3
QUESTION 3:
Now, thinking about the election for Senate that will be held in November - If the election for Senate were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting
for... And would you DEFINTELY vote for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL REPUBLICAN 258 217 13 6 5 14 116 142 74 97 15 17 23 26
---------------- 43% 41% 56% 83% 75% 88% 40% 45% 76% 81% 14% 13% 35% 54%
b Bc KLMN KLMN KL KLm
DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN 227 192 10 5 3 13 99 127 65 94 11 17 21 15
38% 36% 44% 76% 49% 79% 35% 41% 66% 79% 10% 13% 32% 32%
Bc KLMN iKLMN KL KL

PROBABLY REPUBLICAN 31 25 3 - 2 2 16 15 9 3 4 - 2 11
5% 5% 12% 7% 25% 9% 6% 5% 10% 2% 4% - 3% 22%
jL iJKLM

UNDECIDED 75 71 1 1 1 2 29 46 13 14 3 24 13 7
13% 13% 2% 8% 8% 12% 10% 15% 13% 11% 3% 18% 19% 14%
C K K K K k
TOTAL DEMOCRAT 264 243 10 1 1 - 140 124 11 9 93 95 30 15
-------------- 44% 45% 42% 9% 17% - 49% 40% 11% 7% 82% 69% 46% 32%
DF F h IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

PROBABLY DEMOCRAT 78 74 4 - - - 45 33 6 7 23 17 14 3
13% 14% 18% - - - 16% 11% 6% 6% 20% 13% 21% 7%
DEF def IJn IJn

DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT 186 169 6 1 1 - 95 91 5 2 70 78 16 12
31% 32% 24% 9% 17% - 33% 29% 5% 1% 62% 57% 25% 24%
F F IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

REFUSED 3 3 - - - - 2 1 - - 2 1 - -
- 1% - - - - 1% - - - 2% - - 1%

(TOTAL REPUBLICAN - TOTAL -6 -25 3 5 4 14 -24 18 63 88 -77 -78 -7 11
DEMOCRAT) -1% -5% 14% 74% 57% 88% -8% 6% 65% 74% -69% -57% -11% 22%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 10
Table 4-1
QUESTION 4:
And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=UNDECIDED 75 10 21 16 28 26 27 19 71 4 - - - - - - 75 60 44 16 14 9 4
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - - - - - - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 16 3 6 1 6 10 - 5 14 2 - - - - - - 16 14 12 2 2 - 2
21% 25% 30% 4% 23% 38% - 26% 19% 52% - - - - - - 21% 24% 27% 15% 13% - 40%
G G V V v
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE 20 4 4 4 8 13 5 3 20 - - - - - - - 20 17 16 1 2 2 -
27% 42% 18% 26% 29% 49% 18% 15% 29% - - - - - - - 27% 29% 36% 9% 16% 24% -
gH J W tW w w

HARD UNDECIDED 31 3 10 10 9 3 18 8 29 2 - - - - - - 31 24 13 11 6 5 1
41% 26% 45% 61% 31% 12% 66% 42% 41% 36% - - - - - - 41% 40% 30% 68% 47% 54% 34%
F f S

NEITHER 7 1 2 1 4 - 3 3 7 1 - - - - - - 7 5 3 1 2 1 1
10% 7% 7% 9% 13% 1% 13% 17% 10% 12% - - - - - - 10% 8% 8% 8% 17% 12% 27%

REFUSED 1 - - - 1 - 1 - 1 - - - - - - - 1 - - - 1 1 -
1% - - - 3% - 3% - 1% - - - - - - - 1% - - - 7% 10% -

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - -5 -2 2 -3 -2 -3 -5 2 -7 2 - - - - - - -5 -3 -4 1 - -2 2
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE) -6% -18% 12% -21% -7% -10% -18% 11% -10% 52% - - - - - - -6% -5% -9% 5% -3% -24% 40%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 11
Table 4-2
QUESTION 4:
And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=UNDECIDED 75 5 10 65 26 39 17 44 48 25 72 61 29 29 11 58 12 5 -
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% -

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 16 1 1 15 6 9 5 2 4 9 14 7 12 2 2 14 - 2 -
21% 22% 7% 24% 25% 23% 32% 4% 9% 38% 19% 11% 44% 6% 15% 24% - 37% -
h I N Q Q
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE 20 1 2 18 8 10 5 14 17 4 20 19 5 13 - 17 2 1 -
27% 25% 21% 28% 33% 26% 31% 32% 35% 15% 27% 32% 19% 45% - 30% 18% 17% -
o O

HARD UNDECIDED 31 2 4 25 10 16 4 23 22 8 31 26 8 11 9 22 8 1 -
41% 33% 44% 39% 37% 41% 22% 51% 47% 32% 42% 43% 29% 39% 78% 38% 67% 12% -
g MN r pR

NEITHER 7 1 2 5 1 4 2 5 4 4 7 7 2 2 1 5 1 2 -
10% 19% 19% 9% 5% 11% 14% 11% 8% 15% 10% 12% 8% 7% 6% 8% 8% 34% -

REFUSED 1 - 1 - - - - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - - 1 - -
1% - 9% - - - - 2% 2% - 1% 1% - 3% - - 8% - -

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - -5 - -1 -3 -2 -1 - -12 -12 6 -6 -12 7 -11 2 -4 -2 1 -
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE) -6% -3% -15% -5% -8% -3% - -28% -26% 23% -9% -20% 25% -39% 15% -6% -18% 20% -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 12
Table 4-3
QUESTION 4:
And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=UNDECIDED 75 71 1 1 1 2 29 46 13 14 3 24 13 7
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 16 13 - 1 - 1 7 9 4 6 - - 3 2
21% 19% - 100% - 55% 24% 19% 32% 44% - - 24% 29%
CE BCE kl KL

DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE 20 20 - - - - 10 11 7 6 1 4 2 1
27% 29% - - - - 32% 24% 54% 44% 29% 16% 15% 16%
CDEF l
HARD UNDECIDED 31 31 - - - - 10 21 2 1 - 18 7 1
41% 43% - - - - 33% 45% 14% 10% 10% 73% 52% 22%
CDEF IJKN jk

NEITHER 7 5 1 - 1 1 2 5 - - 1 3 1 2
10% 8% 100% - 100% 45% 7% 12% - 2% 30% 11% 9% 33%
d BD BD i

REFUSED 1 1 - - - - 1 - - - 1 - - -
1% 1% - - - - 3% - - - 31% - - -

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - -5 -7 - 1 - 1 -2 -2 -3 - -1 -4 1 1
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE) -6% -10% - 100% - 55% -8% -5% -22% - -29% -16% 9% 14%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 13
Table 5-1
QUESTION 5:
Now thinking about President Trump...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Is that strongly or somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL APPROVE 375 76 121 63 115 208 79 72 352 22 247 224 23 68 27 41 60 375 328 47 - - -
------------- 62% 60% 67% 56% 64% 96% 32% 64% 62% 65% 96% 99% 72% 26% 14% 53% 79% 100% 100% 100% - - -
GH G MNOPQ kMNOP NOp O NO NOP UVW UVW UVW
Q

STRONGLY APPROVE 328 69 112 53 94 192 65 61 310 18 229 214 15 55 21 34 44 328 328 - - - -
55% 54% 62% 47% 52% 89% 26% 53% 55% 52% 89% 94% 49% 21% 11% 43% 58% 88% 100% - - - -
D GH G MNOPQ kMNOP NO O NO NO TUVW RTUVW
Q
SOMEWHAT APPROVE 47 7 9 10 21 16 14 12 42 4 17 10 7 13 6 7 16 47 - 47 - - -
8% 5% 5% 9% 12% 7% 6% 10% 7% 13% 7% 4% 23% 5% 3% 9% 21% 12% - 100% - - -
C kLNO KLNO SUVW RSUVW

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 208 48 55 47 57 7 161 39 196 12 9 2 7 182 152 30 14 - - - 208 183 25
---------------- 35% 38% 31% 42% 32% 3% 64% 34% 35% 34% 4% 1% 24% 69% 82% 38% 18% - - - 100% 100% 100%
FH F l KL KLMPQ KLMNP KLQ KL RST RST RST
Q

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 25 4 8 5 8 3 12 10 25 1 6 2 4 15 9 5 4 - - - 25 - 25
4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 1% 5% 9% 4% 2% 2% 1% 13% 6% 5% 7% 6% - - - 12% - 100%
F l L l RSTV RSTUV

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 183 44 47 42 50 4 149 28 172 11 3 - 3 168 143 24 9 - - - 183 183 -
30% 35% 26% 37% 28% 2% 60% 25% 30% 32% 1% - 11% 63% 77% 31% 12% - - - 88% 100% -
c FH F l KLMPQ KLMNP KLMQ KL RSTW RSTUW
Q

UNSURE / REFUSED 18 3 4 3 8 1 10 3 17 1 2 1 1 14 7 7 2 - - - - - -
3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% - 4% 5% 4% 9% 3% - - - - - -
f KL l KL

(TOTAL APPROVE - TOTAL 167 28 66 16 57 202 -82 34 156 11 237 222 15 -114 -126 11 46 375 328 47 -208 -183 -25
DISAPPROVE) 28% 22% 37% 14% 32% 93% -33% 30% 28% 31% 92% 98% 49% -43% -68% 14% 61% 100% 100% 100% -100% -100% -100%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 14
Table 5-2
QUESTION 5:
Now thinking about President Trump...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Is that strongly or somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL APPROVE 375 - - 375 181 193 235 97 152 207 360 327 249 108 9 351 15 5 2
------------- 62% - - 90% 89% 91% 93% 35% 46% 84% 63% 63% 92% 37% 47% 85% 10% 21% 65%
H I NO QR QR
STRONGLY APPROVE 328 - - 328 163 165 222 70 121 194 314 286 233 84 5 315 7 3 1
55% - - 79% 80% 78% 88% 25% 36% 79% 55% 55% 86% 29% 26% 76% 4% 13% 59%
H I NO QR QR

SOMEWHAT APPROVE 47 - - 47 18 29 13 27 32 13 47 41 16 24 4 36 8 2 -
8% - - 11% 9% 14% 5% 10% 10% 5% 8% 8% 6% 8% 21% 9% 5% 8% 6%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 208 32 171 32 20 13 12 173 167 37 200 181 19 174 9 50 137 19 1
---------------- 35% 80% 97% 8% 10% 6% 5% 62% 50% 15% 35% 35% 7% 59% 46% 12% 87% 75% 35%
B G J M M PS Ps

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 25 19 5 19 10 9 5 19 20 4 25 21 6 17 2 14 7 3 -
4% 47% 3% 5% 5% 4% 2% 7% 6% 1% 4% 4% 2% 6% 12% 3% 5% 12% 15%
C G J

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 183 14 167 14 10 4 7 155 147 33 175 160 13 157 7 36 129 16 -
30% 34% 94% 3% 5% 2% 3% 56% 44% 13% 30% 31% 5% 53% 34% 9% 83% 63% 20%
B G J Mo M PrS PS

UNSURE / REFUSED 18 8 5 8 2 6 6 7 12 2 14 13 2 12 1 12 5 1 -
3% 20% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 4% 1% 2% 2% 1% 4% 7% 3% 3% 4% -
C j M S

(TOTAL APPROVE - TOTAL 167 -32 -171 342 162 180 223 -76 -14 170 160 145 229 -66 - 300 -121 -14 1
DISAPPROVE) 28% -80% -97% 82% 79% 85% 88% -27% -4% 69% 28% 28% 85% -23% 1% 73% -78% -55% 30%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 15
Table 5-3
QUESTION 5:
Now thinking about President Trump...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Is that strongly or somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL APPROVE 375 333 15 6 3 14 181 193 93 116 36 42 44 29
------------- 62% 62% 64% 91% 45% 84% 63% 62% 95% 97% 32% 31% 67% 59%
b b KLMN KLMN KL KL

STRONGLY APPROVE 328 291 14 5 3 12 163 165 85 107 35 30 37 23
55% 55% 58% 72% 45% 76% 57% 53% 87% 90% 31% 22% 57% 49%
KLMN KLMN KL kL
SOMEWHAT APPROVE 47 42 1 1 - 1 18 29 8 8 1 12 6 5
8% 8% 6% 19% - 8% 6% 9% 8% 7% 1% 9% 10% 11%
E k k K k k

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 208 183 8 1 4 3 100 107 5 2 72 88 22 17
---------------- 35% 34% 36% 9% 55% 16% 35% 34% 5% 2% 64% 65% 33% 35%
IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 25 18 2 - 3 3 13 12 3 - 4 8 6 4
4% 3% 8% - 47% 16% 4% 4% 3% - 3% 6% 9% 9%
D b J J J

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 183 165 6 1 1 - 88 95 2 2 69 81 16 12
30% 31% 27% 9% 8% - 31% 30% 2% 2% 61% 59% 24% 26%
eF F IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

UNSURE / REFUSED 18 18 - - - - 5 13 - 1 4 6 - 3
3% 3% - - - - 2% 4% - 1% 4% 4% - 6%
CDEF im

(TOTAL APPROVE - TOTAL 167 150 7 5 -1 11 81 86 88 114 -36 -46 22 12
DISAPPROVE) 28% 28% 29% 82% -11% 68% 28% 27% 90% 95% -32% -34% 33% 25%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 16
Table 6-1
QUESTION 6:
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even though I may not approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President, I do like some of his policies and
some of the actions he has taken?
Is that strongly or somewhat (agree / disagree)?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=DISAPPROVE/UNSURE/ 225 51 59 50 65 8 171 42 213 12 11 3 9 196 159 37 16 - - - 208 183 25
REFUSED 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - - - 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL AGREE 41 5 17 5 14 4 18 16 39 2 9 3 7 26 16 9 5 - - - 32 14 19
----------- 18% 9% 29% 9% 22% 54% 11% 38% 18% 15% 82% 100% 76% 13% 10% 25% 31% - - - 16% 7% 75%
bD d G G NOPQ NOPQ NOPq o v UV

STRONGLY AGREE 8 2 1 1 4 2 5 - 8 - 3 3 - 5 2 3 - - - - 4 1 3
3% 4% 1% 2% 6% 24% 3% - 4% 1% 24% 100% 1% 3% 1% 8% - - - - 2% - 13%
KMNOP
Q

SOMEWHAT AGREE 33 3 16 4 10 2 13 16 31 2 7 - 7 21 14 6 5 - - - 29 13 16
15% 5% 28% 7% 16% 30% 8% 38% 15% 14% 58% - 76% 11% 9% 17% 31% - - - 14% 7% 62%
BD G LNOp LNOPq L L L Lno UV

TOTAL DISAGREE 176 45 40 44 48 4 148 24 166 10 2 - 2 163 140 23 10 - - - 171 167 5
-------------- 78% 87% 68% 88% 73% 46% 87% 58% 78% 85% 18% - 24% 83% 88% 62% 65% - - - 83% 91% 19%
CE FH KLMP KLMPQ KL KLm W uW
SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 18 8 4 2 5 1 10 7 17 1 1 - 1 14 12 1 3 - - - 17 12 5
8% 15% 6% 4% 7% 8% 6% 17% 8% 5% 9% - 12% 7% 8% 4% 20% - - - 8% 7% 19%
L L L

STRONGLY DISAGREE 158 37 36 42 43 3 138 17 149 10 1 - 1 149 127 21 7 - - - 154 154 -
70% 73% 61% 84% 66% 38% 81% 41% 70% 80% 9% - 11% 76% 80% 58% 45% - - - 74% 85% -
CE FH KLMpQ KLMPQ KLM KLm W uW

DEPENDS / NEUTRAL 3 - 1 1 2 - 2 - 3 - - - - 3 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 -
1% - 1% 1% 3% - 1% - 1% - - - - 1% 1% 3% 4% - - - - - -

UNSURE / REFUSED 5 2 2 1 1 - 3 2 5 - - - - 5 2 4 - - - - 3 2 2
2% 4% 3% 1% 2% - 2% 4% 2% - - - - 3% 1% 10% - - - - 1% 1% 6%
j kmq

(TOTAL AGREE - TOTAL -136 -40 -23 -40 -33 1 -130 -8 -127 -9 7 3 5 -137 -123 -13 -5 - - - -139 -153 14
DISAGREE) -60% -78% -39% -79% -51% 8% -76% -20% -60% -70% 64% 100% 53% -70% -78% -36% -34% - - - -67% -84% 56%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 17
Table 6-2
QUESTION 6:
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even though I may not approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President, I do like some of his policies and
some of the actions he has taken?
Is that strongly or somewhat (agree / disagree)?

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=DISAPPROVE/UNSURE/ 225 41 176 41 22 18 18 180 179 39 215 194 21 186 10 62 141 21 1
REFUSED 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL AGREE 41 41 - 41 22 18 12 24 29 6 37 33 12 26 3 24 12 5 -
----------- 18% 100% - 100% 100% 100% 68% 13% 16% 16% 17% 17% 54% 14% 25% 38% 8% 24% -
C H N QS S S

STRONGLY AGREE 8 8 - 8 3 5 5 2 4 1 7 4 3 4 1 5 3 - -
3% 19% - 19% 12% 27% 28% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 12% 2% 7% 8% 2% - -
C H
SOMEWHAT AGREE 33 33 - 33 19 13 7 22 25 5 30 29 9 21 2 19 9 5 -
15% 81% - 81% 88% 73% 41% 12% 14% 14% 14% 15% 42% 11% 18% 30% 7% 23% -
C h N QS S S

TOTAL DISAGREE 176 - 176 - - - 4 151 143 31 169 153 9 155 8 34 126 15 1
-------------- 78% - 100% - - - 22% 84% 80% 81% 79% 79% 41% 83% 75% 55% 89% 73% 100%
B G M m P PQR

SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 18 - 18 - - - - 16 14 3 17 16 1 15 2 5 7 5 1
8% - 10% - - - 3% 9% 8% 7% 8% 8% 5% 8% 19% 8% 5% 26% 69%
B q PQ

STRONGLY DISAGREE 158 - 158 - - - 3 135 129 28 152 138 8 140 6 29 119 10 -
70% - 90% - - - 19% 75% 72% 73% 71% 71% 36% 75% 56% 47% 84% 47% 31%
B G M PRs

DEPENDS / NEUTRAL 3 - - - - - - 2 2 1 3 2 - 3 - 1 1 1 -
1% - - - - - - 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% - 2% - 2% 1% 3% -

UNSURE / REFUSED 5 - - - - - 2 3 5 - 5 5 1 2 - 3 2 - -
2% - - - - - 10% 2% 3% - 2% 3% 5% 1% - 5% 1% - -

(TOTAL AGREE - TOTAL -136 41 -176 41 22 18 8 -127 -113 -25 -131 -120 3 -129 -5 -11 -114 -10 -1
DISAGREE) -60% 100% -100% 100% 100% 100% 47% -70% -63% -65% -61% -62% 13% -70% -50% -17% -81% -49% -100%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 18
Table 6-3
QUESTION 6:
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even though I may not approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President, I do like some of his policies and
some of the actions he has taken?
Is that strongly or somewhat (agree / disagree)?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=DISAPPROVE/UNSURE/ 225 200 8 1 4 3 105 120 5 3 77 94 22 20
REFUSED 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL AGREE 41 31 4 - 3 3 22 18 3 1 7 11 10 6
----------- 18% 15% 47% - 85% 100% 21% 15% 62% 43% 10% 11% 45% 29%
D bD B BCD kl KL

STRONGLY AGREE 8 5 1 - 2 - 3 5 2 - 1 4 - -
3% 2% 10% - 54% - 3% 4% 41% - 1% 5% - -
jmn

SOMEWHAT AGREE 33 26 3 - 1 3 19 13 1 1 7 6 10 6
15% 13% 37% - 31% 100% 19% 11% 20% 43% 9% 7% 45% 29%
D D BCD KL l
TOTAL DISAGREE 176 161 4 1 1 - 80 96 2 2 67 81 12 12
-------------- 78% 80% 53% 100% 15% - 76% 80% 38% 57% 87% 86% 55% 61%
cEF F BCF iMn iMn

SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 18 13 1 - 1 - 11 7 1 - 6 5 5 2
8% 7% 8% - 15% - 11% 6% 14% - 7% 5% 24% 9%
DF j j

STRONGLY DISAGREE 158 148 4 1 - - 69 89 1 2 61 77 7 10
70% 74% 44% 100% - - 66% 74% 24% 57% 80% 81% 30% 52%
cEF EF BCEF IMn IMN

DEPENDS / NEUTRAL 3 3 - - - - - 3 - - - 2 - -
1% 2% - - - - - 3% - - - 2% - 1%

UNSURE / REFUSED 5 5 - - - - 3 3 - - 3 1 - 2
2% 3% - - - - 2% 2% - - 3% 1% - 9%
cdef

(TOTAL AGREE - TOTAL -136 -130 - -1 3 3 -58 -78 1 - -59 -71 -2 -6
DISAGREE) -60% -65% -6% -100% 70% 100% -55% -65% 24% -14% -77% -75% -9% -32%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 19
Table 7-1
QUESTION 7:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

PATRICK MORRISEY

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 253 55 84 38 76 159 41 46 241 12 220 202 18 16 4 11 17 235 222 13 12 7 5
--------------- 42% 44% 46% 34% 42% 73% 16% 40% 43% 34% 85% 89% 59% 6% 2% 15% 23% 63% 68% 29% 6% 4% 19%
d GH G MNOPQ MNOPQ NOPQ O NO TUVW TUVW UV
STRONGLY FAVORABLE 138 23 41 26 47 91 23 20 132 5 133 126 7 3 1 1 2 132 129 4 5 3 2
23% 18% 23% 23% 26% 42% 9% 18% 23% 16% 52% 56% 22% 1% 1% 1% 2% 35% 39% 8% 2% 2% 8%
GH g MNOPQ MNOPQ NOPQ TUVW TUVW

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 116 32 42 13 29 67 18 26 109 6 87 76 12 13 3 10 15 103 93 10 7 4 3
19% 25% 24% 11% 16% 31% 7% 23% 19% 18% 34% 33% 37% 5% 1% 13% 20% 27% 28% 21% 3% 2% 11%
d D G G NOPq NOPq NOP O NO UVW UVW UV

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 278 42 76 74 86 37 176 55 263 14 16 9 7 215 159 56 44 97 70 27 173 155 19
----------------- 46% 33% 42% 65% 48% 17% 70% 48% 47% 42% 6% 4% 21% 81% 85% 72% 59% 26% 21% 59% 83% 85% 74%
BCE b FH F kL KLMQ KLMpQ KLM KLM RS RST RST RS

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 59 8 18 14 19 17 22 17 51 8 10 7 4 34 15 19 15 36 24 12 23 16 6
10% 6% 10% 12% 11% 8% 9% 15% 9% 23% 4% 3% 11% 13% 8% 24% 20% 10% 7% 25% 11% 9% 25%
f KL KLnO KLo RSuV s

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 219 34 58 60 67 20 154 38 212 6 6 3 3 181 144 37 29 61 46 16 151 138 12
36% 27% 32% 53% 37% 9% 62% 34% 38% 19% 2% 1% 10% 69% 77% 48% 39% 16% 14% 34% 73% 76% 49%
BCE FH F J KLMPQ KLMPQ KLM KLM RS RSTw RSTW RS

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 45 21 16 1 7 14 20 9 43 2 12 9 3 22 15 7 11 28 22 6 15 13 2
7% 17% 9% 1% 4% 6% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 4% 10% 8% 8% 9% 15% 7% 7% 12% 7% 7% 7%
DE D d kL

NEVER HEARD OF 20 7 3 1 9 7 10 3 15 5 7 4 3 9 6 3 3 12 12 - 7 7 -
3% 6% 2% 1% 5% 3% 4% 2% 3% 14% 3% 2% 10% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% - 3% 4% -
D TW TW tw tw

DO NOT KNOW 4 - 2 - 2 - 2 1 2 1 1 1 - 2 2 - - 1 1 - 1 1 -
1% - 1% - 1% - 1% 1% - 4% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - - - - - - - -

REFUSED 1 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - - - - - 1 1 - - - -
- 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL -24 13 8 -36 -10 122 -135 -9 -22 -2 205 193 12 -199 -154 -45 -27 138 152 -14 -161 -147 -14
UNFAVORABLE) -4% 11% 4% -32% -5% 56% -54% -8% -4% -7% 79% 85% 37% -76% -83% -58% -36% 37% 46% -30% -78% -81% -56%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 20
Table 7-2
QUESTION 7:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

PATRICK MORRISEY

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 253 12 4 247 122 125 253 - 63 182 253 245 230 18 1 238 12 2 1
--------------- 42% 30% 2% 60% 60% 59% 100% - 19% 74% 44% 47% 85% 6% 7% 58% 8% 7% 53%
C H I NO QR QR
STRONGLY FAVORABLE 138 5 1 137 74 63 138 - 20 112 138 132 134 2 1 134 2 1 -
23% 12% - 33% 36% 30% 54% - 6% 45% 24% 25% 50% 1% 3% 32% 1% 5% 10%
c H I NO QRs

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 116 8 3 111 49 62 116 - 43 71 116 114 96 16 1 104 10 1 1
19% 19% 2% 27% 24% 29% 46% - 13% 29% 20% 22% 36% 5% 4% 25% 6% 2% 43%
C H I NO QR qr

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 278 24 151 121 55 66 - 278 233 42 277 275 25 230 13 129 127 19 1
----------------- 46% 59% 86% 29% 27% 31% - 100% 70% 17% 48% 53% 9% 78% 66% 31% 81% 75% 47%
B G J M M Ps P

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 59 4 17 40 16 24 - 59 48 11 59 59 13 40 4 34 17 8 -
10% 11% 10% 10% 8% 11% - 21% 15% 4% 10% 11% 5% 14% 21% 8% 11% 29% 5%
G J M m Pqs

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 219 19 134 81 39 42 - 219 185 32 218 216 12 190 9 96 110 12 1
36% 48% 76% 19% 19% 20% - 79% 56% 13% 38% 42% 5% 65% 46% 23% 70% 45% 41%
B G J M M PR P

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 45 2 14 30 15 15 - - 21 18 45 - 10 28 5 26 16 3 -
7% 5% 8% 7% 7% 7% - - 6% 7% 8% - 4% 10% 24% 6% 10% 12% -
L M M S S s

NEVER HEARD OF 20 - 8 12 7 5 - - 12 3 - - 4 14 - 16 2 2 -
3% - 4% 3% 3% 2% - - 4% 1% - - 1% 5% 3% 4% 1% 6% -
B m qS

DO NOT KNOW 4 2 - 4 4 - - - 1 - - - - 4 - 3 1 - -
1% 6% - 1% 2% - - - - - - - - 1% - 1% 1% - -

REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 - - 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL -24 -11 -147 126 67 59 253 -278 -170 140 -24 -30 205 -212 -12 109 -115 -17 -
UNFAVORABLE) -4% -28% -83% 30% 33% 28% 100% -100% -51% 57% -4% -6% 76% -72% -60% 26% -73% -67% 6%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 21
Table 7-3
QUESTION 7:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

PATRICK MORRISEY

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 253 217 13 5 3 12 122 131 76 83 16 25 27 19
--------------- 42% 41% 56% 78% 49% 76% 43% 42% 77% 70% 14% 18% 41% 40%
B KLMN KLMN KL KL

STRONGLY FAVORABLE 138 117 5 1 2 10 74 64 45 46 14 9 12 8
23% 22% 21% 15% 30% 60% 26% 20% 46% 39% 12% 7% 18% 17%
Bc KLMN KLMN l
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 116 100 8 4 1 3 49 67 31 37 2 16 15 11
19% 19% 34% 63% 19% 16% 17% 21% 31% 31% 2% 11% 23% 23%
KL KL K K K

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 278 253 8 1 2 3 124 154 15 22 70 106 33 22
----------------- 46% 47% 36% 9% 25% 17% 43% 49% 16% 18% 62% 77% 50% 47%
DF IJ IJkMN IJ IJ

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 59 49 2 - 1 1 24 35 6 11 4 18 12 5
10% 9% 11% - 17% 8% 8% 11% 6% 9% 3% 13% 19% 10%
D K iK

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 219 204 6 1 1 2 100 119 9 11 66 88 20 18
36% 38% 25% 9% 8% 10% 35% 38% 10% 9% 59% 64% 31% 37%
dEF IJMn IJMN IJ IJ

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 45 41 - 1 2 1 26 19 6 8 17 4 3 5
7% 8% 1% 14% 25% 7% 9% 6% 6% 6% 15% 3% 5% 11%
c L

NEVER HEARD OF 20 19 1 - - - 10 9 1 6 8 2 2 1
3% 4% 3% - - - 4% 3% 1% 5% 7% 2% 2% 2%
DEF i

DO NOT KNOW 4 3 1 - - - 4 - - - 2 - 1 -
1% 1% 4% - - - 1% - - - 2% - 2% -

REFUSED 1 1 - - - - - 1 - 1 - - - -
- - - - - - - - - 1% - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL -24 -37 5 5 2 10 -1 -23 60 61 -54 -81 -6 -3
UNFAVORABLE) -4% -7% 20% 69% 24% 59% -1% -7% 62% 52% -48% -59% -9% -7%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 22
Table 8-1
QUESTION 8:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

JOE MANCHIN

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 331 66 96 66 104 69 186 63 316 16 58 43 15 225 162 64 48 152 121 32 167 147 20
--------------- 55% 52% 53% 58% 58% 32% 74% 55% 56% 46% 23% 19% 48% 85% 87% 82% 64% 41% 37% 68% 80% 81% 77%
FH F KL KLMQ KLMQ KLMQ KL RS RS RS RS
STRONGLY FAVORABLE 177 42 38 33 63 28 120 20 171 6 15 15 - 146 114 32 16 73 63 10 96 86 9
29% 33% 21% 29% 35% 13% 48% 18% 30% 18% 6% 6% 1% 55% 61% 41% 21% 19% 19% 22% 46% 47% 37%
C FH m M KLMpQ KLMPQ KLMQ KLM RST RST

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 154 24 58 33 41 41 66 43 145 10 43 28 15 79 47 32 32 79 58 22 71 61 10
26% 19% 32% 29% 23% 19% 27% 37% 26% 28% 17% 13% 47% 30% 25% 41% 43% 21% 18% 46% 34% 33% 40%
be F KLO KL kL KLo KLO RS RS RS s

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 246 50 81 46 68 136 59 46 231 15 184 171 13 34 20 14 25 207 194 13 37 33 4
----------------- 41% 40% 45% 41% 38% 63% 24% 40% 41% 43% 72% 76% 42% 13% 11% 17% 33% 55% 59% 29% 18% 18% 15%
GH G MNOPQ MNOPQ NOP NOp TUVW TUVW

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 105 23 34 19 29 54 26 20 96 9 69 60 9 22 11 11 11 83 75 8 21 18 3
17% 18% 19% 17% 16% 25% 11% 18% 17% 25% 27% 27% 29% 8% 6% 14% 15% 22% 23% 17% 10% 10% 13%
G NOPq NOPq NO UV UV

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 141 28 47 27 39 81 33 26 135 6 115 111 4 12 10 3 14 124 119 5 16 16 -
24% 22% 26% 24% 22% 37% 13% 23% 24% 18% 45% 49% 13% 5% 5% 3% 18% 33% 36% 12% 8% 9% 2%
GH g MNOPQ MNOPQ NOP TUVW TUVW w

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 16 10 2 1 4 9 2 5 15 2 14 11 3 2 2 - - 12 10 1 4 2 2
3% 8% 1% 1% 2% 4% 1% 4% 3% 5% 5% 5% 10% 1% 1% - - 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 8%
cd g NOPQ NOPQ p

NEVER HEARD OF 3 1 - - 2 3 - - 1 2 1 1 - - - - 2 3 3 - - - -
1% 1% - - 1% 2% - - - 7% - 1% - - - - 3% 1% 1% - - - -

DO NOT KNOW 3 - 2 - 2 - 3 - 3 - - - - 3 2 1 - - - - 1 1 -
1% - 1% - 1% - 1% - 1% - - - - 1% 1% 1% - - - - - - -

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 86 15 15 20 35 -67 127 17 85 1 -126 -128 2 192 141 50 23 -55 -73 18 130 114 16
UNFAVORABLE) 14% 12% 8% 18% 20% -31% 51% 15% 15% 3% -49% -57% 6% 73% 76% 64% 31% -15% -22% 39% 62% 62% 63%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 23
Table 8-2
QUESTION 8:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

JOE MANCHIN

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 331 29 143 182 91 91 63 233 331 - 317 296 59 264 5 190 125 15 1
--------------- 55% 72% 81% 44% 44% 43% 25% 84% 100% - 55% 57% 22% 90% 28% 46% 80% 57% 33%
G J MO PRS
STRONGLY FAVORABLE 177 13 88 86 50 36 19 139 177 - 169 158 11 166 - 91 80 6 1
29% 32% 50% 21% 24% 17% 8% 50% 53% - 29% 30% 4% 56% 1% 22% 51% 23% 26%
b G J MO PR

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 154 16 54 96 41 55 44 94 154 - 148 138 47 98 5 99 46 9 -
26% 41% 31% 23% 20% 26% 17% 34% 47% - 26% 27% 18% 33% 27% 24% 29% 34% 6%
G J M s S s

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 246 6 31 213 104 109 182 42 - 246 243 224 198 24 12 206 28 9 2
----------------- 41% 15% 18% 51% 51% 51% 72% 15% - 100% 42% 43% 73% 8% 63% 50% 18% 35% 67%
H I N N Q Q

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 105 4 17 87 49 38 67 24 - 105 103 91 75 19 5 85 12 6 1
17% 10% 10% 21% 24% 18% 27% 9% - 43% 18% 17% 28% 7% 26% 21% 8% 22% 37%
H I N n Q

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 141 2 14 126 56 71 115 18 - 141 140 133 122 5 7 121 16 3 1
24% 5% 8% 30% 27% 33% 45% 7% - 57% 24% 26% 45% 2% 37% 29% 10% 13% 31%
H I N N QR

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 16 2 3 14 6 8 8 2 - - 15 - 11 4 1 12 2 2 -
3% 5% 1% 3% 3% 4% 3% 1% - - 3% - 4% 1% 5% 3% 1% 8% -
h L n S

NEVER HEARD OF 3 - - 3 - 3 - - - - - - 2 - - 3 - - -
1% - - 1% - 2% - - - - - - 1% - - 1% - - -

DO NOT KNOW 3 3 - 3 3 - - 1 - - - - - 2 1 2 2 - -
1% 8% - 1% 2% - - - - - - - - 1% 3% - 1% - -

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 86 23 111 -31 -14 -18 -119 191 331 -246 75 72 -139 240 -7 -17 97 6 -1
UNFAVORABLE) 14% 57% 63% -8% -7% -8% -47% 69% 100% -100% 13% 14% -52% 82% -35% -4% 62% 22% -35%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 24
Table 8-3
QUESTION 8:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

JOE MANCHIN

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 331 302 14 2 2 3 162 169 32 36 85 101 36 27
--------------- 55% 57% 58% 23% 37% 19% 57% 54% 33% 30% 75% 74% 55% 55%
F F IJmn IJMN IJ IJ

STRONGLY FAVORABLE 177 165 7 - - - 98 79 15 13 62 58 15 6
29% 31% 30% - - - 34% 25% 15% 11% 55% 42% 22% 12%
DEF DEF h IJMN IJMN
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 154 137 7 2 2 3 64 90 18 23 23 44 22 21
26% 26% 29% 23% 37% 19% 22% 29% 18% 20% 20% 32% 33% 44%
Ij i IJK

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 246 214 9 5 1 13 115 131 62 74 24 35 27 19
----------------- 41% 40% 38% 77% 8% 81% 40% 42% 63% 62% 21% 26% 42% 39%
E e BCE KLMN KLMN Kl k

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 105 89 4 5 1 4 57 47 27 27 15 12 13 7
17% 17% 15% 69% 8% 22% 20% 15% 28% 23% 13% 8% 20% 14%
Bce KLn L l

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 141 125 5 1 - 10 58 83 35 47 9 24 14 12
24% 24% 23% 8% - 59% 20% 27% 35% 39% 8% 17% 21% 25%
E e BcDE KLm KLMn k K

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 16 12 - - 4 - 7 10 3 6 1 1 2 3
3% 2% - - 55% - 2% 3% 3% 5% 1% - 3% 6%
CDF BCdF l

NEVER HEARD OF 3 3 - - - - - 3 - 3 - - - -
1% 1% - - - - - 1% - 3% - - - -

DO NOT KNOW 3 2 1 - - - 3 - - - 3 - - -
1% - 4% - - - 1% - - - 3% - - -

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 86 88 5 -4 2 -10 47 39 -30 -37 60 66 9 8
UNFAVORABLE) 14% 16% 21% -54% 28% -62% 16% 12% -30% -31% 53% 48% 13% 17%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 25
Table 9-1
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Patrick Morrisey, and Democrat Joe Manchin?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
TOTAL MORRISEY 270 55 99 40 76 173 43 46 256 14 228 207 21 14 9 5 29 249 233 16 19 13 6
-------------- 45% 43% 55% 35% 42% 80% 17% 41% 45% 40% 88% 91% 66% 5% 5% 7% 38% 66% 71% 34% 9% 7% 24%
DE GH G MNOPQ MNOPQ NOPQ NOP TUVW TUVW UV

DEFINITELY PATRICK 217 43 75 36 62 151 28 34 206 11 202 195 7 5 4 1 9 211 202 9 6 4 2
MORRISEY 36% 34% 42% 32% 35% 70% 11% 30% 36% 31% 78% 86% 22% 2% 2% 1% 12% 56% 62% 19% 3% 2% 8%
GH G MNOPQ kMNOP NOP NoP TUVW TUVW UV
Q
PROBABLY PATRICK MORRISEY 48 12 22 2 12 20 12 11 45 3 24 11 13 8 4 4 16 32 25 7 14 10 4
8% 9% 12% 2% 7% 9% 5% 10% 8% 9% 9% 5% 41% 3% 2% 5% 21% 9% 8% 15% 7% 5% 16%
D d NO KLNOP kLNOP
q

LEAN PATRICK MORRISEY 6 - 2 2 2 1 4 1 6 - 2 1 1 - - - 4 6 6 - - - -
1% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% - 3% - - - 5% 1% 2% - - - -
j tuvw tuvw

TOTAL MANCHIN 294 65 72 66 92 37 189 56 278 16 23 15 8 240 172 68 29 108 84 24 174 157 17
------------- 49% 51% 40% 58% 51% 17% 76% 50% 49% 46% 9% 7% 25% 91% 93% 87% 39% 29% 26% 51% 84% 86% 66%
C c FH F kL KLMQ KLMQ KLMQ KL RS RST RSTw RS

LEAN JOE MANCHIN 11 1 1 3 6 5 3 3 10 1 2 1 2 2 2 - 6 6 4 2 5 5 -
2% 1% - 3% 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% - 5% 1% 1% - 8% 2% 1% 5% 3% 3% 2%
c klnop

PROBABLY JOE MANCHIN 67 11 19 16 20 18 35 11 59 7 7 6 1 44 14 30 16 41 33 7 23 18 5
11% 9% 11% 14% 11% 8% 14% 9% 11% 21% 3% 3% 2% 17% 7% 38% 22% 11% 10% 16% 11% 10% 18%
KLMO k KLMNO KLMO
q

DEFINITELY JOE MANCHIN 216 52 52 47 65 15 152 43 208 7 14 9 6 194 156 38 7 61 47 14 146 134 12
36% 41% 29% 41% 36% 7% 61% 38% 37% 21% 5% 4% 18% 74% 84% 49% 9% 16% 14% 30% 70% 73% 47%
c FH F l KLMPQ KLMNP KLMQ rs RSTw RSTW RS
Q

HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW 19 3 5 4 7 5 11 3 16 4 4 2 2 4 3 1 11 9 5 4 9 7 2
3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 11% 1% 1% 5% 2% 2% 1% 15% 2% 2% 9% 4% 4% 9%
KLNOP

OTHER 11 3 1 2 4 1 5 4 11 - 2 1 1 4 1 3 5 6 4 2 4 4 -
2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 2% - 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 4% 7% 1% 1% 4% 2% 2% -
J l w

WOULD NOT VOTE 2 - 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 2 2 - 1 1 -
- - 1% - - - - 1% - 3% - - - - - 1% - - - - - - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Continued
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 26
Table 9-1
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Patrick Morrisey, and Democrat Joe Manchin?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

REFUSED 3 - 1 1 - - - 2 3 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 -
- - 1% 1% - - - 2% - 1% - - - - 1% - 1% 1% - 3% - - -

(TOTAL MORRISEY - TOTAL -24 -10 27 -26 -15 135 -146 -10 -22 -2 205 192 13 -227 -164 -63 -1 141 149 -8 -154 -144 -11
MANCHIN) -4% -8% 15% -23% -9% 63% -58% -9% -4% -5% 79% 85% 41% -86% -88% -81% -1% 38% 45% -17% -74% -79% -42%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 27
Table 9-2
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Patrick Morrisey, and Democrat Joe Manchin?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
TOTAL MORRISEY 270 12 9 260 122 139 230 25 59 198 265 247 270 - - 254 11 3 1
-------------- 45% 29% 5% 63% 60% 66% 91% 9% 18% 81% 46% 48% 100% - - 61% 7% 13% 59%
C H I NO QR QR

DEFINITELY PATRICK 217 2 3 213 103 109 200 4 31 174 212 197 217 - - 210 4 2 1
MORRISEY 36% 5% 2% 51% 51% 52% 79% 2% 9% 71% 37% 38% 80% - - 51% 3% 7% 42%
H I NO QR Qr

PROBABLY PATRICK MORRISEY 48 10 6 42 16 26 26 19 25 21 48 45 48 - - 39 7 1 -
8% 24% 3% 10% 8% 12% 10% 7% 8% 9% 8% 9% 18% - - 9% 4% 6% 16%
C NO q
LEAN PATRICK MORRISEY 6 - - 6 2 4 4 2 3 3 6 6 6 - - 6 - - -
1% - - 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% - - 1% - - -
no qrs

TOTAL MANCHIN 294 26 155 133 74 60 18 230 264 24 277 247 - 294 - 141 132 19 1
------------- 49% 63% 88% 32% 36% 28% 7% 83% 80% 10% 48% 47% - 100% - 34% 84% 73% 33%
B G J MO PS Ps

LEAN JOE MANCHIN 11 1 4 7 7 1 2 6 9 3 10 8 - 11 - 9 2 - -
2% 3% 2% 2% 3% - 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% - 4% - 2% 1% 2% -
f MO S

PROBABLY JOE MANCHIN 67 5 20 46 27 20 6 47 54 12 64 53 - 67 - 42 19 4 -
11% 13% 12% 11% 13% 9% 2% 17% 16% 5% 11% 10% - 23% - 10% 12% 16% -
G J MO S S S

DEFINITELY JOE MANCHIN 216 19 131 80 41 39 11 177 201 10 203 186 - 216 - 90 111 14 1
36% 47% 74% 19% 20% 19% 4% 64% 61% 4% 35% 36% - 73% - 22% 71% 55% 33%
B G J MO PS P

HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW 19 3 8 12 5 7 1 13 5 12 18 13 - - 19 10 8 2 -
3% 6% 4% 3% 2% 3% 1% 5% 2% 5% 3% 3% - - 100% 2% 5% 8% -
G i MN S S

OTHER 11 - 4 6 1 5 2 6 2 8 9 8 - - - 5 4 2 -
2% - 2% 1% - 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% - - - 1% 3% 6% 9%

WOULD NOT VOTE 2 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 - 2 2 2 - - - 2 1 - -
- 1% - - - 1% - 1% - 1% - - - - - - - - -
REFUSED 3 - 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 - - - 2 1 - -
- 1% - 1% 1% - - 1% - 1% 1% - - - - - 1% - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Continued
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 28
Table 9-2
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Patrick Morrisey, and Democrat Joe Manchin?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

(TOTAL MORRISEY - TOTAL -24 -14 -146 127 48 79 212 -205 -205 174 -11 - 270 -294 - 112 -121 -16 1
MANCHIN) -4% -35% -83% 31% 23% 37% 84% -74% -62% 71% -2% - 100% -100% - 27% -77% -60% 26%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 29
Table 9-3
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Patrick Morrisey, and Democrat Joe Manchin?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL MORRISEY 270 235 8 6 4 14 127 143 76 96 19 24 27 20
-------------- 45% 44% 35% 86% 57% 84% 44% 46% 78% 81% 17% 18% 41% 41%
BC BC KLMN KLMN KL KL
DEFINITELY PATRICK 217 187 6 6 3 12 105 111 69 82 14 14 19 15
MORRISEY 36% 35% 25% 86% 49% 75% 37% 36% 70% 69% 13% 10% 29% 31%
BC BC KLMN KLMN kL KL

PROBABLY PATRICK MORRISEY 48 43 2 - 1 2 19 28 7 14 5 7 7 5
8% 8% 10% - 8% 9% 7% 9% 7% 12% 5% 5% 10% 10%
D

LEAN PATRICK MORRISEY 6 6 - - - - 2 4 1 - - 4 1 -
1% 1% - - - - 1% 1% 1% - - 3% 2% -
cdef
TOTAL MANCHIN 294 267 13 1 3 - 148 146 20 17 90 100 33 24
------------- 49% 50% 56% 14% 43% - 52% 47% 20% 15% 80% 73% 50% 50%
dF dF f IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

LEAN JOE MANCHIN 11 10 1 - - - 9 2 3 2 3 1 3 -
2% 2% 4% - - - 3% 1% 3% 1% 2% - 4% -
DEF

PROBABLY JOE MANCHIN 67 63 2 - 1 - 33 34 10 8 16 18 5 6
11% 12% 10% 6% 17% - 11% 11% 10% 7% 14% 13% 8% 12%
F

DEFINITELY JOE MANCHIN 216 194 10 1 2 - 106 109 7 8 71 81 25 18
36% 36% 41% 9% 25% - 37% 35% 7% 6% 63% 59% 38% 38%
dF F IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW 19 18 - - - 1 6 14 2 3 1 10 2 1
3% 3% - - - 7% 2% 4% 2% 3% 1% 7% 3% 1%
CDE ikn

OTHER 11 9 1 - - 1 3 8 - 1 2 3 1 3
2% 2% 5% - - 5% 1% 3% - 1% 2% 2% 2% 7%
DE i

WOULD NOT VOTE 2 1 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 -
- - 4% - - 4% - - - 1% - - 2% -
REFUSED 3 3 - - - - 2 1 - - - - 2 1
- 1% - - - - 1% - - - - - 3% 1%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Continued
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 30
Table 9-3
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Patrick Morrisey, and Democrat Joe Manchin?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

(TOTAL MORRISEY - TOTAL -24 -32 -5 5 1 14 -21 -3 57 79 -71 -75 -6 -4
MANCHIN) -4% -6% -21% 71% 15% 84% -7% -1% 58% 66% -62% -55% -9% -9%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 31
Table 10-1
QUESTION 10:
I would like to ask you a few confidential statistical questions, for generic classification purposes only.

In the Presidential election in 2016, please tell me who you voted for. As you'll recall, the candidates were...

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN 413 82 143 71 117 213 101 83 393 20 245 218 27 109 55 53 58 351 315 36 50 36 14
69% 65% 79% 63% 65% 98% 40% 73% 70% 57% 95% 96% 87% 41% 30% 68% 77% 94% 96% 77% 24% 20% 56%
bDE GH G NOPQ NOPQ NOP o NO NO TUVW TUVW UV UV

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRAT 157 35 30 37 55 2 139 14 148 9 8 6 1 136 118 19 12 15 7 8 137 129 7
26% 27% 17% 33% 30% 1% 55% 13% 26% 25% 3% 3% 5% 52% 63% 24% 16% 4% 2% 18% 66% 71% 29%
C C FH F KLMPQ KLMnP KLM KL RS RSTW RSTW RS
Q

GARY JOHNSON, LIBERTARIAN 5 1 2 - 2 - - 5 4 1 - - - 3 2 1 2 - - - 5 3 2
1% 1% 1% - 1% - - 4% 1% 3% - - - 1% 1% 2% 3% - - 1% 2% 2% 7%
fg

JILL STEIN, GREEN PARTY 5 3 1 1 1 - 3 2 4 2 2 - 2 2 2 - 1 2 2 - 3 3 -
1% 2% - 1% 1% - 1% 2% 1% 5% 1% - 6% 1% 1% - 2% 1% 1% - 2% 2% 1%

OTHER NAMES 15 6 2 3 4 1 4 9 12 3 1 1 - 12 9 3 2 3 1 2 11 10 1
3% 4% 1% 3% 2% - 2% 8% 2% 9% - - 1% 4% 5% 4% 3% 1% - 4% 6% 6% 5%
Fg KL kl RS RS

DID NOT VOTE 2 - 1 - - - 2 - 2 - 1 1 - 1 1 - - 2 1 - 1 - -
- - 1% - - - 1% - - 1% 1% 1% - - - - - - - - - - 2%

REFUSED 2 - - - 1 - 1 - 2 - - - - 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - - -
- - - - 1% - - - - - - - - - - 1% - - - 1% - - -

(TRUMP - CLINTON) 257 47 113 33 62 211 -38 68 245 11 238 212 26 -28 -62 35 46 336 308 27 -86 -93 7
43% 37% 63% 30% 35% 97% -15% 60% 43% 33% 92% 93% 83% -10% -34% 45% 61% 90% 94% 59% -42% -51% 27%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 32
Table 10-2
QUESTION 10:
I would like to ask you a few confidential statistical questions, for generic classification purposes only.

In the Presidential election in 2016, please tell me who you voted for. As you'll recall, the candidates were...

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN 413 24 34 374 189 185 238 129 190 206 393 360 254 141 10 413 - - -
69% 58% 19% 90% 93% 87% 94% 47% 57% 84% 68% 69% 94% 48% 49% 100% - - -
C H I NO QRS

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRAT 157 12 126 27 9 19 12 127 125 28 153 136 11 132 8 - 157 - -
26% 29% 72% 7% 4% 9% 5% 46% 38% 11% 27% 26% 4% 45% 40% - 100% - -
B G J M M PRS
GARY JOHNSON, LIBERTARIAN 5 3 2 3 3 - 1 4 3 3 5 4 - 4 1 - - 5 -
1% 7% 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 7% - - 20% -
PQS

JILL STEIN, GREEN PARTY 5 1 3 3 - 2 - 3 2 2 5 4 1 5 - - - 5 -
1% 2% 1% 1% - 1% - 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 2% - - - 21% -
PQS

OTHER NAMES 15 1 10 4 2 2 1 12 11 4 14 13 3 11 1 - - 15 -
3% 4% 6% 1% 1% 1% - 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 4% 3% - - 59% -
G PQS

DID NOT VOTE 2 - 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 - - - - 2
- - - - - 1% 1% - - 1% - - 1% - - - - - 100%
PQR

REFUSED 2 - - 2 - 1 - 1 1 1 2 1 - 1 - - - - -
- 1% - - - 1% - - - - - - - - 1% - - - -

(TRUMP - CLINTON) 257 12 -92 347 181 166 226 3 64 178 240 223 243 9 2 413 -157 - -
43% 29% -52% 84% 89% 79% 89% 1% 19% 72% 42% 43% 90% 3% 10% 100% -100% - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 33
Table 10-3
QUESTION 10:
I would like to ask you a few confidential statistical questions, for generic classification purposes only.

In the Presidential election in 2016, please tell me who you voted for. As you'll recall, the candidates were...

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN 413 378 9 6 3 14 220 193 97 117 64 37 50 32
69% 71% 40% 90% 49% 89% 77% 62% 99% 98% 57% 27% 77% 67%
C C C H KLMN KLMN L kL L

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRAT 157 137 12 1 - 1 51 105 1 1 46 93 4 11
26% 26% 53% 9% - 5% 18% 34% 1% 1% 41% 68% 5% 22%
EF BDEF G IJMn IJKMN IJM

GARY JOHNSON, LIBERTARIAN 5 4 - - - 1 3 2 - - - - 3 1
1% 1% 1% 1% - 7% 1% 1% - - - - 5% 3%

JILL STEIN, GREEN PARTY 5 3 - - 2 - 2 3 - - 1 1 1 2
1% 1% - - 33% - 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 3%

OTHER NAMES 15 8 1 - 1 - 9 7 - 1 1 3 7 2
3% 2% 2% - 17% - 3% 2% - 1% 1% 2% 11% 4%
DF IJKl
DID NOT VOTE 2 2 1 - - - 1 2 - - - 1 - -
- - 4% - - - - 1% - - - 1% - -

REFUSED 2 2 - - - - - 1 - - - 1 - -
- - - - - - - - - - - 1% - 1%

(TRUMP - CLINTON) 257 241 -3 5 3 14 169 88 96 115 18 -56 47 22
43% 45% -13% 81% 49% 84% 59% 28% 98% 97% 16% -41% 71% 45%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 34
Table 11-1
QUESTION 11:
In which age category do you fall into?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

18 - 34 127 127 - - - 50 49 25 117 10 57 51 7 59 43 16 10 76 69 7 48 44 4
21% 100% - - - 23% 20% 22% 21% 28% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 20% 14% 20% 21% 15% 23% 24% 16%
CDE
35 - 44 83 - 83 - - 32 25 25 72 12 43 37 6 31 25 6 9 55 50 4 27 22 5
14% - 46% - - 15% 10% 22% 13% 33% 17% 16% 19% 12% 13% 8% 13% 15% 15% 9% 13% 12% 21%
BDE G i p p

45 - 54 97 - 97 - - 34 38 20 94 2 45 39 6 39 25 14 12 66 62 4 28 25 3
16% - 54% - - 16% 15% 18% 17% 7% 18% 17% 19% 15% 13% 18% 16% 18% 19% 9% 14% 14% 12%
BDE t

55 - 64 113 - - 113 - 38 62 11 112 1 41 37 5 55 45 9 16 63 53 10 47 42 5
19% - - 100% - 17% 25% 10% 20% 4% 16% 16% 15% 21% 24% 12% 21% 17% 16% 22% 23% 23% 20%
BCE H J p
65+ 180 - - - 180 63 76 32 170 10 71 63 8 80 48 33 28 115 94 21 57 50 8
30% - - - 100% 29% 30% 29% 30% 28% 28% 28% 26% 30% 26% 42% 37% 31% 29% 45% 28% 27% 30%
BCD klo suv

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MEAN 55 26 45 60 83 54 56 53 55 49 53 53 52 55 54 59 59 55 54 62 54 54 56
k kl rSuv

MEDIAN 53 26 46 60 83 52 57 48 54 41 51 51 50 55 54 58 58 53 52 62 55 55 55

STANDARD DEVIATION 21 - 5 - - 21 21 21 21 22 21 21 21 21 21 22 20 21 21 21 21 21 21

STANDARD ERROR 1 - - - - 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 4 1 2 3 2 1 1 3 1 2 4

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 35
Table 11-2
QUESTION 11:
In which age category do you fall into?

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

18 - 34 127 5 45 80 47 34 55 42 66 50 118 92 55 65 3 82 35 9 -
21% 11% 25% 19% 23% 16% 22% 15% 20% 20% 21% 18% 20% 22% 17% 20% 22% 36% 10%
b
35 - 44 83 10 18 65 42 23 39 32 42 38 81 71 49 30 3 62 17 4 -
14% 26% 10% 16% 21% 11% 15% 12% 13% 16% 14% 14% 18% 10% 16% 15% 11% 16% 9%
c F N

45 - 54 97 7 22 73 29 43 45 44 54 43 95 89 50 42 2 81 13 1 1
16% 16% 12% 18% 14% 20% 18% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 18% 14% 9% 20% 8% 5% 49%
QR QR

55 - 64 113 5 44 68 29 39 38 74 66 46 113 111 40 66 4 71 37 5 -
19% 11% 25% 16% 14% 18% 15% 27% 20% 19% 20% 21% 15% 22% 21% 17% 24% 17% 15%
b G m
65+ 180 14 48 129 57 72 76 86 104 68 168 158 76 92 7 117 55 7 -
30% 35% 27% 31% 28% 34% 30% 31% 31% 28% 29% 30% 28% 31% 38% 28% 35% 25% 17%
REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MEAN 55 57 54 55 53 58 54 58 56 54 55 56 54 56 58 54 57 50 53
E

MEDIAN 53 52 56 53 49 56 52 58 56 52 53 56 51 56 59 52 58 43 51

STANDARD DEVIATION 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 21 21 21 20 21 21 22 21 22 23 16

STANDARD ERROR 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 2 4 10

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 36
Table 11-3
QUESTION 11:
In which age category do you fall into?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

18 - 34 127 109 6 4 4 1 77 50 28 22 34 15 12 13
21% 20% 24% 60% 55% 5% 27% 16% 29% 18% 30% 11% 18% 26%
F f f H L L l

35 - 44 83 78 3 - - 2 46 38 19 13 10 14 15 10
14% 15% 11% 4% - 13% 16% 12% 19% 11% 9% 10% 22% 21%
E kl
45 - 54 97 85 4 1 - 6 44 53 10 24 20 18 13 8
16% 16% 19% 17% - 37% 15% 17% 10% 21% 18% 13% 19% 17%
E e E i

55 - 64 113 104 4 - 1 1 49 65 16 22 24 38 7 5
19% 19% 19% 6% 17% 5% 17% 21% 16% 18% 21% 28% 10% 10%
f iMN

65+ 180 158 6 1 2 6 72 108 25 38 24 51 20 12
30% 30% 27% 14% 27% 39% 25% 35% 26% 32% 22% 38% 31% 26%
G ik
REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MEAN 55 55 53 40 47 61 52 58 51 56 51 61 54 51
G i IKmN

MEDIAN 53 53 52 31 32 53 49 57 47 55 50 60 50 46

STANDARD DEVIATION 21 21 21 20 25 19 21 21 22 21 21 19 21 21

STANDARD ERROR 1 1 4 8 10 5 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 37
Table 12-1
QUESTION 12:
And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic background?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WHITE OR CAUCASIAN 533 109 163 104 158 200 225 89 503 30 217 192 25 243 169 74 71 333 291 42 183 165 18
89% 86% 90% 91% 88% 93% 90% 79% 89% 88% 84% 85% 80% 92% 91% 95% 94% 89% 89% 89% 88% 90% 69%
H H Kl KLm KL w w w
AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK 23 6 7 4 6 3 14 7 21 2 13 10 3 10 6 4 1 15 14 1 8 6 2
4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 1% 6% 6% 4% 7% 5% 5% 9% 4% 3% 5% 1% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 8%
f f Q q

HISPANIC OR LATINO 7 4 1 - 1 4 1 2 7 - 6 5 - 1 1 - 1 6 5 1 1 1 -
1% 3% 1% - 1% 2% - 2% 1% - 2% 2% 1% - - - 1% 2% 1% 3% - - -
nP p W w

ASIAN OR PACIFIC ISLANDER 7 4 - 1 2 3 - 3 5 2 5 3 2 1 1 - 1 3 3 - 4 1 3
1% 3% - 1% 1% 2% - 3% 1% 5% 2% 1% 5% - 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 2% - 12%
p
MULTI-RACIAL OR OTHER 16 1 8 1 6 5 4 7 16 - 14 13 2 - - - 2 14 12 1 3 - 3
3% 1% 5% 1% 4% 2% 2% 6% 3% - 6% 6% 5% - - - 3% 4% 4% 3% 1% - 10%
bd J NOP NOP V V

DO NOT KNOW 12 4 - 3 5 1 4 5 12 - 3 3 - 8 8 - 1 4 3 1 8 8 -
2% 3% - 2% 3% 1% 2% 5% 2% - 1% 1% - 3% 4% - 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% -
c f J MP MP W W

REFUSED 2 - - - 2 - 2 - 2 - - - - 2 2 - - - - - 2 2 -
- - - - 1% - 1% - - - - - - 1% 1% - - - - - 1% 1% -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 38
Table 12-2
QUESTION 12:
And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic background?

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WHITE OR CAUCASIAN 533 31 161 364 177 187 217 253 302 214 510 463 235 267 18 378 137 15 2
89% 76% 91% 88% 87% 88% 86% 91% 91% 87% 89% 89% 87% 91% 94% 91% 87% 59% 64%
b g R R
AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK 23 4 4 19 7 12 13 8 14 9 22 21 8 13 - 9 12 1 1
4% 10% 2% 5% 3% 6% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% - 2% 8% 3% 36%
O O p p

HISPANIC OR LATINO 7 - 1 6 2 4 5 1 2 5 7 6 6 1 - 6 1 - -
1% - - 1% 1% 2% 2% - - 2% 1% 1% 2% - - 1% - - -
O s

ASIAN OR PACIFIC ISLANDER 7 3 1 6 4 2 3 2 2 1 7 3 4 3 - 3 - 3 -
1% 8% - 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% - 13% -
pqs
MULTI-RACIAL OR OTHER 16 3 - 16 12 5 12 3 3 13 16 15 14 - 1 14 1 1 -
3% 6% - 4% 6% 2% 5% 1% 1% 5% 3% 3% 5% - 6% 3% 1% 4% -
H I N QS

DO NOT KNOW 12 - 8 4 2 2 3 9 7 4 12 11 4 8 - 2 4 5 -
2% - 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% - 1% 3% 20% -
B O PQS

REFUSED 2 - 2 - - - - 2 2 - 2 2 - 2 - - 2 - -
- - 1% - - - - 1% 1% - - - - 1% - - 1% - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 39
Table 12-3
QUESTION 12:
And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic background?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WHITE OR CAUCASIAN 533 533 - - - - 251 282 92 108 102 123 47 42
89% 100% - - - - 88% 90% 94% 91% 90% 90% 71% 88%
CDEF M M M M M

AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK 23 - 23 - - - 9 14 1 2 5 9 3 3
4% - 100% - - - 3% 5% 1% 2% 5% 6% 5% 7%
BDEF I
HISPANIC OR LATINO 7 - - 7 - - 2 5 1 4 - 1 1 -
1% - - 100% - - 1% 1% 1% 3% - - 2% 1%
BCEF

ASIAN OR PACIFIC ISLANDER 7 - - - 7 - 5 2 3 - - - 2 2
1% - - - 100% - 2% 1% 3% - - - 3% 3%
BCDF jkl

MULTI-RACIAL OR OTHER 16 - - - - 16 12 5 1 4 4 1 7 -
3% - - - - 100% 4% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 11% -
BCDE n ILN
DO NOT KNOW 12 - - - - - 8 4 - 1 3 2 5 -
2% - - - - - 3% 1% - 1% 2% 1% 8% -
IjN

REFUSED 2 - - - - - - 2 - - - 2 - -
- - - - - - - 1% - - - 1% - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 40
Table 13-1
QUESTION 13:
County

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

BERKELEY 37 18 6 5 7 16 15 6 35 1 16 16 - 20 19 1 - 18 18 - 18 18 -
6% 14% 4% 5% 4% 7% 6% 5% 6% 4% 6% 7% - 8% 10% 2% - 5% 5% - 8% 10% -
CdE MpQ MpQ MpQ MPQ TW TW TW TW
CABELL 30 9 6 6 9 13 14 3 28 2 11 10 - 16 10 6 4 16 16 - 14 14 1
5% 7% 3% 5% 5% 6% 6% 3% 5% 6% 4% 5% 1% 6% 5% 8% 5% 4% 5% - 7% 8% 3%
m T T T T

HARRISON 23 3 7 4 9 7 9 6 22 2 8 8 - 14 11 3 1 13 9 4 10 10 -
4% 2% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 5% 4% 5% 3% 4% - 5% 6% 4% 2% 4% 3% 9% 5% 5% -
M M M M W W w W W

JEFFERSON 17 8 2 2 5 6 7 2 16 1 11 11 - 5 4 1 1 9 9 1 7 5 2
3% 6% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% - 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 8%
M M
KANAWHA 67 12 22 8 24 18 30 17 65 1 20 17 3 36 26 10 10 39 32 8 24 22 2
11% 10% 12% 7% 13% 8% 12% 15% 12% 4% 8% 8% 10% 14% 14% 13% 14% 10% 10% 16% 12% 12% 7%
d kl

MARION 17 10 2 2 3 2 11 4 15 1 3 3 - 12 9 3 2 10 10 - 7 6 1
3% 8% 1% 2% 2% 1% 4% 3% 3% 4% 1% 1% 1% 4% 5% 4% 2% 3% 3% - 3% 3% 4%
c f k T T T t

MERCER 17 3 6 4 3 7 7 1 13 3 8 7 1 6 5 1 3 10 7 3 7 6 1
3% 2% 4% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 9% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 5% 3% 3% 3%

MONONGALIA 30 8 6 10 6 18 6 6 28 2 16 15 1 7 6 1 7 21 20 1 9 6 2
5% 7% 3% 9% 3% 8% 2% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 2% 3% 3% 2% 10% 6% 6% 2% 4% 3% 9%
ce G p

OHIO 17 6 3 - 8 10 4 3 16 1 12 11 1 2 2 1 2 15 9 6 2 2 -
3% 5% 2% - 4% 5% 2% 3% 3% 2% 5% 5% 5% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 12% 1% 1% -
D NOp Nop uvW W uvW

PUTNAM 23 1 9 4 9 4 15 3 19 5 8 7 1 14 13 2 1 8 7 1 15 14 2
4% 1% 5% 3% 5% 2% 6% 3% 3% 14% 3% 3% 4% 5% 7% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 7% 7% 6%
b B f Q Q rs rs

RALEIGH 23 1 10 3 10 8 9 5 23 - 9 8 1 10 5 5 4 16 16 - 7 5 2
4% - 5% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4% - 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 6% 6% 4% 5% 1% 3% 3% 7%
B B J t

WOOD 30 4 15 7 5 11 9 9 27 3 12 8 4 11 8 3 6 17 14 3 12 9 3
5% 3% 8% 6% 3% 5% 4% 8% 5% 8% 4% 4% 11% 4% 4% 4% 8% 5% 4% 6% 6% 5% 10%
e

REST OF STATE 270 45 85 57 83 96 114 49 258 12 124 106 19 111 70 41 34 182 162 20 77 66 11
45% 35% 47% 50% 46% 44% 46% 43% 46% 34% 48% 47% 59% 42% 38% 52% 45% 49% 49% 43% 37% 36% 43%
b o O o UV UV

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 41
Table 13-2
QUESTION 13:
County

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

BERKELEY 37 2 18 19 4 15 15 7 17 15 33 20 16 20 - 19 13 5 -
6% 4% 10% 5% 2% 7% 6% 3% 5% 6% 6% 4% 6% 7% - 5% 8% 18% -
e O O S S S
CABELL 30 - 14 16 7 9 13 15 19 11 30 28 13 15 1 17 13 - -
5% - 8% 4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 8% 2% 10%
B

HARRISON 23 2 8 15 10 5 6 17 17 4 23 21 7 15 - 12 9 2 1
4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 2% 2% 6% 5% 2% 4% 4% 3% 5% 2% 3% 6% 7% 21%
g j

JEFFERSON 17 3 4 13 5 8 11 5 6 8 16 13 7 8 2 6 9 2 -
3% 8% 2% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 10% 1% 5% 9% -
s S
KANAWHA 67 3 24 43 19 24 25 36 51 16 67 61 24 41 - 51 14 2 -
11% 8% 14% 10% 9% 11% 10% 13% 15% 7% 12% 12% 9% 14% 2% 12% 9% 9% -
J o O S S

MARION 17 2 5 11 10 1 3 9 11 5 13 12 4 10 2 11 6 - -
3% 4% 3% 3% 5% 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 9% 3% 4% 1% -
f F S s

MERCER 17 1 6 11 3 8 7 6 7 7 13 13 9 8 - 13 3 - -
3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% 1% -
S

MONONGALIA 30 2 6 24 16 7 13 14 11 19 29 27 16 10 3 22 5 3 -
5% 5% 4% 6% 8% 4% 5% 5% 3% 8% 5% 5% 6% 3% 14% 5% 3% 12% -
i S s

OHIO 17 - 2 15 8 7 11 4 3 13 17 16 12 2 - 14 3 - -
3% - 1% 4% 4% 3% 4% 2% 1% 5% 3% 3% 5% 1% - 3% 2% - -
I NO RS

PUTNAM 23 - 13 8 2 6 8 15 15 8 23 23 9 13 - 9 12 2 1
4% - 7% 2% 1% 3% 3% 5% 5% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 2% 2% 8% 7% 27%
B p

RALEIGH 23 3 3 19 11 8 11 12 13 9 23 22 9 12 1 18 5 1 -
4% 8% 2% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 7% 4% 3% 2% -
S s

WOOD 30 3 9 20 12 8 10 16 19 11 29 26 16 12 2 22 8 1 -
5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 8% 5% 5% 3% -
S S

REST OF STATE 270 21 63 203 97 106 119 121 143 119 258 238 127 126 8 201 59 8 1
45% 51% 36% 49% 48% 50% 47% 44% 43% 49% 45% 46% 47% 43% 41% 49% 38% 30% 43%
qr

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 42
Table 13-3
QUESTION 13:
County

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

BERKELEY 37 29 1 4 - - 19 18 1 15 11 3 6 -
6% 5% 3% 54% - - 7% 6% 2% 12% 10% 2% 9% -
EF bcf ILN iN N

CABELL 30 28 1 1 - - 10 20 4 9 3 10 3 -
5% 5% 4% 8% - - 4% 6% 4% 7% 3% 8% 4% 1%
EF N N
HARRISON 23 19 - - - 1 12 11 4 3 4 6 4 2
4% 4% 1% - - 8% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 6% 4%
DE

JEFFERSON 17 7 6 - 2 1 6 10 4 2 1 6 1 1
3% 1% 25% - 30% 6% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% 5% 2% 2%
D BD

KANAWHA 67 61 2 - - 3 31 35 6 12 14 16 10 7
11% 11% 11% 4% - 17% 11% 11% 6% 10% 13% 12% 16% 15%
E
MARION 17 17 - - - - 13 4 2 - 8 3 3 1
3% 3% - - - - 4% 1% 2% - 7% 2% 4% 2%
CDEF h j

MERCER 17 15 1 - - 1 8 9 2 5 5 3 - 1
3% 3% 5% - - 5% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2% - 2%
DE

MONONGALIA 30 25 2 - 1 2 20 10 13 5 3 3 3 2
5% 5% 10% - 17% 12% 7% 3% 13% 4% 3% 2% 5% 4%
D JKLn

OHIO 17 16 - 1 - - 10 7 5 5 2 2 3 -
3% 3% - 8% - - 3% 2% 5% 4% 2% 1% 4% -
CEF N n

PUTNAM 23 23 1 - - - 6 18 1 3 3 11 1 2
4% 4% 3% - - - 2% 6% 1% 2% 3% 8% 2% 4%
DEF g Ij

RALEIGH 23 17 4 - 1 - 14 9 5 3 4 5 5 -
4% 3% 15% 1% 19% - 5% 3% 5% 2% 4% 3% 7% 1%
F n n

WOOD 30 30 - - - - 15 15 6 5 4 5 5 4
5% 6% - - - - 5% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 8% 7%
CDEF

REST OF STATE 270 248 5 2 2 8 122 148 44 52 50 64 21 28
45% 46% 23% 24% 33% 52% 43% 47% 45% 44% 44% 47% 32% 58%
C m M

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 43
Table 14-1
QUESTION 14:
Gender

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ======================================
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL STRG SMWT TOTAL STRG SMWT
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM UNDEC APP APP APP DISAPP DISAPP DISAPP
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 127 180 113 180 217 250 114 565 35 258 227 31 264 186 78 75 375 328 47 208 183 25
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

MALE 287 77 89 49 72 98 113 66 274 13 116 99 16 140 95 45 29 181 163 18 100 88 13
48% 61% 50% 43% 40% 45% 45% 58% 48% 38% 45% 44% 52% 53% 51% 57% 39% 48% 50% 39% 48% 48% 51%
DE fg q lq
FEMALE 313 50 91 65 108 119 137 48 292 22 142 127 15 124 91 33 46 193 165 29 107 95 12
52% 39% 50% 57% 60% 55% 55% 42% 52% 62% 55% 56% 48% 47% 49% 43% 61% 52% 50% 61% 52% 52% 49%
B B h h p np

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 44
Table 14-2
QUESTION 14:
Gender

BANNER 2
LIKE TRUMP MORRISEY MANCHIN MORRISEY/
SOME TRUMP SUPPORTER IMAGE IMAGE MANCHIN BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
DIS- HRD OPIN MORRI MAN- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE AGREE TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH -SEY CHIN UNDEC TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 41 176 415 204 212 253 278 331 246 575 521 270 294 19 413 157 26 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

MALE 287 22 80 204 204 - 122 124 162 115 272 239 127 148 6 220 51 14 1
48% 55% 46% 49% 100% - 48% 45% 49% 47% 47% 46% 47% 50% 29% 53% 33% 55% 25%
F DF o Q q
FEMALE 313 18 96 212 - 212 131 154 169 131 303 281 143 146 14 193 105 12 2
52% 45% 54% 51% - 100% 52% 55% 51% 53% 53% 54% 53% 50% 71% 47% 67% 45% 75%
E DE n Pr

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – WV Senate
October 2018 PAGE 45
Table 14-3
QUESTION 14:
Gender

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 533 23 7 7 16 287 313 98 119 113 137 66 48
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

MALE 287 251 9 2 5 12 287 - 98 - 113 - 66 -
48% 47% 39% 30% 75% 72% 100% - 100% - 100% - 100% -
bc H JLN JLN JLN

FEMALE 313 282 14 5 2 5 - 313 - 119 - 137 - 48
52% 53% 61% 70% 25% 28% - 100% - 100% - 100% - 100%
f f G IKM IKM IKM

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N