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Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate

October 2018 PAGE 1
Table 1-1
QUESTION 1:
In elections, do you generally vote...

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN 243 61 74 43 66 243 - - 234 9 218 198 19 14 6 8 11 230 203 26 12 9 3
41% 44% 40% 38% 40% 100% - - 41% 37% 82% 84% 70% 5% 3% 13% 22% 69% 78% 35% 5% 4% 11%
GH NOPQ NOPQ NOPQ o o TUVW RTUVW UVW

INDEPENDENT OR UNAFFILIATED 123 15 45 31 31 - - 123 117 6 36 29 7 65 43 22 18 58 35 23 61 50 11
21% 11% 25% 28% 19% - - 100% 20% 25% 14% 12% 27% 23% 19% 37% 36% 17% 13% 31% 24% 22% 39%
B B FG l KL l KLo kl S S S rS

DEMOCRATIC 197 46 58 36 57 - 197 - 191 5 4 4 - 192 164 28 1 22 9 13 172 160 12
33% 34% 32% 32% 34% - 100% - 33% 22% 1% 2% - 68% 74% 46% 3% 7% 4% 18% 67% 70% 44%
FH KLMPQ KLMPQ KLMQ S RSTW RSTW RST
UNSURE / REFUSED 37 15 6 3 12 - - - 33 4 6 5 1 11 9 2 20 25 12 12 10 9 2
6% 11% 3% 3% 7% - - - 6% 16% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 39% 7% 5% 16% 4% 4% 6%
cd d KLMNO suv
P

(REPUBLICAN - DEMOCRATIC) 46 15 15 7 9 243 -197 - 43 4 214 195 19 -178 -157 -20 10 207 194 13 -160 -151 -9
8% 11% 8% 6% 6% 100% -100% - 7% 15% 81% 82% 70% -63% -71% -33% 20% 62% 75% 18% -63% -66% -33%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 2
Table 1-2
QUESTION 1:
In elections, do you generally vote...

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN 243 6 7 236 118 117 201 21 26 204 234 214 223 14 6 234 3 5 1
41% 11% 3% 61% 59% 62% 74% 9% 9% 71% 42% 44% 75% 5% 37% 68% 1% 25% 10%
H I NO N QRS Q
INDEPENDENT OR UNAFFILIATED 123 16 43 74 42 33 38 62 71 48 115 99 46 71 4 64 47 8 2
21% 31% 22% 19% 21% 17% 14% 27% 25% 17% 21% 20% 15% 25% 26% 19% 21% 41% 33%
G j M pq

DEMOCRATIC 197 24 147 47 24 22 17 141 176 16 177 157 15 178 4 17 172 6 2
33% 45% 74% 12% 12% 12% 6% 62% 61% 6% 32% 32% 5% 63% 25% 5% 76% 31% 28%
B G J MO PRS P

UNSURE / REFUSED 37 7 3 32 15 17 16 5 15 19 30 21 14 20 2 29 6 1 2
6% 13% 1% 8% 7% 9% 6% 2% 5% 7% 5% 4% 5% 7% 11% 8% 2% 3% 29%
c h Q

(REPUBLICAN - DEMOCRATIC) 46 -18 -141 189 94 95 184 -120 -150 187 57 57 208 -163 2 217 -169 -1 -1
8% -34% -70% 49% 47% 50% 68% -52% -52% 65% 10% 12% 70% -58% 12% 63% -75% -5% -18%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 3
Table 1-3
QUESTION 1:
In elections, do you generally vote...

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN 243 213 11 1 - 12 121 122 121 122 - - - -
41% 46% 17% 30% - 33% 42% 39% 100% 100% - - - -
CE E E KLMN KLMN

INDEPENDENT OR UNAFFILIATED 123 87 22 - 3 6 72 51 - - - - 72 51
21% 19% 32% - 30% 17% 25% 16% - - - - 100% 100%
D bD d H IJKL IJKL
DEMOCRATIC 197 145 25 2 6 13 76 121 - - 76 121 - -
33% 31% 37% 70% 57% 35% 26% 39% - - 100% 100% - -
G IJMN IJMN

UNSURE / REFUSED 37 21 9 - 1 6 18 19 - - - - - -
6% 5% 13% - 12% 15% 6% 6% - - - - - -
D D

(REPUBLICAN - DEMOCRATIC) 46 68 -13 -1 -6 -1 46 1 121 122 -76 -121 - -
8% 15% -20% -40% -57% -2% 16% - 100% 100% -100% -100% - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 4
Table 2-1
QUESTION 1_A:
Although you vote for the person and not one of the major parties - when you have had to choose between two candidates of whom you knew little about, have you tended to vote
for ...

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=INDEPENDENT/ 123 15 45 31 31 - - 123 117 6 36 29 7 65 43 22 18 58 35 23 61 50 11
UNAFFILIATED 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 40 4 12 7 16 - - 40 39 1 25 21 4 4 2 2 10 34 21 12 6 2 4
32% 30% 26% 22% 52% - - 32% 34% 10% 68% 71% 52% 7% 5% 10% 56% 58% 61% 53% 10% 5% 35%
cD NOP NOP NOP NOP UV UV UV

THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE 48 3 21 17 7 - - 48 44 5 4 3 1 41 28 12 3 5 1 4 39 35 4
39% 19% 47% 55% 22% - - 39% 37% 75% 11% 10% 13% 63% 67% 56% 14% 9% 2% 19% 64% 71% 35%
be BE KLMQ KLMQ KLMQ RST RSTw s
OTHER / WON'T VOTE FOR 15 3 3 4 4 - - 15 14 1 4 4 - 7 3 4 4 7 5 2 7 4 3
EITHER 12% 21% 6% 14% 14% - - 12% 12% 16% 11% 13% 4% 10% 7% 16% 22% 12% 14% 9% 12% 8% 27%
UNSURE / REFUSED 20 5 9 3 4 - - 20 20 - 4 2 2 13 9 4 1 12 8 4 8 8 -
17% 30% 20% 9% 12% - - 17% 17% - 11% 6% 31% 20% 21% 18% 8% 21% 23% 18% 14% 16% 2%
J l W W

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - -8 2 -9 -10 10 - - -8 -4 -4 21 18 3 -36 -26 -10 8 29 21 8 -33 -33 -
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) -7% 11% -21% -32% 30% - - -7% -4% -65% 57% 61% 39% -56% -62% -45% 42% 49% 59% 34% -54% -66% -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 5
Table 2-2
QUESTION 1_A:
Although you vote for the person and not one of the major parties - when you have had to choose between two candidates of whom you knew little about, have you tended to vote
for ...

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=INDEPENDENT/ 123 16 43 74 42 33 38 62 71 48 115 99 46 71 4 64 47 8 2
UNAFFILIATED 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 40 4 2 38 24 14 25 8 10 30 37 33 31 8 - 39 1 - -
32% 24% 5% 51% 57% 43% 65% 14% 14% 62% 33% 33% 68% 11% - 61% 1% 3% -
H I NO O QRS

THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE 48 9 32 14 8 6 4 37 38 8 45 41 5 41 2 11 31 4 2
39% 53% 75% 19% 20% 17% 12% 60% 54% 16% 39% 41% 10% 58% 46% 17% 66% 45% 100%
G J M P PQR

OTHER / WON'T VOTE FOR 15 4 3 11 3 7 5 8 8 7 15 13 6 7 - 6 5 3 -
EITHER 12% 23% 8% 15% 8% 23% 13% 13% 11% 14% 13% 13% 14% 10% 5% 9% 10% 41% -
s s s
UNSURE / REFUSED 20 - 5 12 6 6 4 8 15 4 18 12 4 14 2 8 10 1 -
17% - 12% 16% 15% 17% 9% 14% 21% 7% 16% 12% 9% 20% 49% 13% 23% 11% -
b j S S

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - -8 -5 -30 24 15 9 20 -29 -28 22 -7 -8 27 -33 -2 28 -30 -3 -2
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) -7% -29% -70% 32% 37% 26% 54% -46% -40% 45% -6% -8% 58% -46% -46% 45% -65% -41% -100%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 6
Table 2-3
QUESTION 1_A:
Although you vote for the person and not one of the major parties - when you have had to choose between two candidates of whom you knew little about, have you tended to vote
for ...

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=INDEPENDENT/ 123 87 22 - 3 6 72 51 - - - - 72 51
UNAFFILIATED 100% 100% 100% - 100% 100% 100% 100% - - - - 100% 100%

THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 40 29 9 - 1 2 26 14 - - - - 26 14
32% 33% 41% - 19% 29% 36% 28% - - - - 36% 28%

THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE 48 36 4 - 2 3 28 20 - - - - 28 20
39% 42% 19% - 81% 41% 39% 39% - - - - 39% 39%

OTHER / WON'T VOTE FOR 15 9 4 - - 2 5 10 - - - - 5 10
EITHER 12% 10% 21% - - 23% 6% 20% - - - - 6% 20%
E g m
UNSURE / REFUSED 20 13 4 - - - 14 7 - - - - 14 7
17% 16% 20% - - 7% 19% 13% - - - - 19% 13%
E

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - -8 -8 5 - -2 -1 -2 -6 - - - - -2 -6
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) -7% -9% 22% - -62% -12% -3% -11% - - - - -3% -11%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 7
Table 3-1
QUESTION 2:
Now looking ahead to the upcoming election in November, how likely would you say you are to vote in the election this November? Would you say you are...

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL LIKELY 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
------------ 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
VERY LIKELY 576 133 173 111 158 234 191 117 576 - 257 232 25 268 210 58 47 324 257 67 246 219 27
96% 97% 95% 98% 95% 96% 97% 95% 100% - 97% 98% 92% 95% 95% 96% 93% 97% 99% 89% 96% 96% 97%
J tu

SOMEWHAT LIKELY 24 3 10 2 9 9 5 6 - 24 7 5 2 14 11 2 4 11 2 8 9 9 1
4% 3% 5% 2% 5% 4% 3% 5% - 100% 3% 2% 8% 5% 5% 4% 7% 3% 1% 11% 4% 4% 3%
I s s

(TOTAL LIKELY - TOTAL 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
UNLIKELY) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 8
Table 3-2
QUESTION 2:
Now looking ahead to the upcoming election in November, how likely would you say you are to vote in the election this November? Would you say you are...

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL LIKELY 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
------------ 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

VERY LIKELY 576 49 192 373 190 182 263 224 276 276 535 478 289 272 12 331 219 19 4
96% 91% 96% 96% 96% 96% 97% 98% 96% 96% 96% 97% 96% 96% 78% 96% 97% 95% 70%

SOMEWHAT LIKELY 24 5 8 15 8 7 9 5 12 11 21 14 10 10 3 13 8 1 2
4% 9% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 22% 4% 3% 5% 30%

(TOTAL LIKELY - TOTAL 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
UNLIKELY) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 9
Table 3-3
QUESTION 2:
Now looking ahead to the upcoming election in November, how likely would you say you are to vote in the election this November? Would you say you are...

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL LIKELY 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
------------ 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

VERY LIKELY 576 455 60 3 9 33 275 301 116 118 72 119 69 48
96% 98% 90% 100% 86% 89% 96% 96% 96% 97% 96% 98% 95% 95%
Bc

SOMEWHAT LIKELY 24 12 7 - 1 4 12 12 5 4 3 2 4 2
4% 2% 10% - 14% 11% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 2% 5% 5%
D d

(TOTAL LIKELY - TOTAL 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
UNLIKELY) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 10
Table 4-1
QUESTION 3:
Now, thinking about the election for Senate that will be held in November - If the election for Senate were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting
for ... And would you DEFINTELY vote for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL REPUBLICAN 264 65 92 46 61 218 4 36 257 7 264 237 27 - - - - 260 228 31 4 - 4
---------------- 44% 48% 50% 41% 36% 90% 2% 30% 45% 29% 100% 100% 100% - - - - 78% 88% 42% 2% - 13%
E GH G NOPQ NOPQ NOPQ TUVW RTUVW UVW v

DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN 237 58 82 41 56 198 4 29 232 5 237 237 - - - - - 233 214 18 3 - 3
39% 42% 45% 36% 34% 82% 2% 24% 40% 19% 90% 100% - - - - - 70% 83% 24% 1% - 12%
e GH G J MNOPQ KMNOP TUVW RTUVW UV
Q

PROBABLY REPUBLICAN 27 7 10 5 5 19 - 7 25 2 27 - 27 - - - - 27 14 13 1 - -
5% 5% 6% 5% 3% 8% - 6% 4% 10% 10% - 100% - - - - 8% 5% 17% - - 1%
G G LNOPQ KLNOP UVW UV sUVW
Q
UNDECIDED 51 14 6 8 23 11 1 18 47 4 - - - - - - 51 43 21 22 7 4 3
8% 10% 3% 7% 14% 5% 1% 15% 8% 15% - - - - - - 100% 13% 8% 29% 3% 2% 9%
c Cd G FG KLMNO UV UV RSUVw
P

TOTAL DEMOCRAT 282 55 86 58 83 14 192 65 268 14 - - - 282 222 60 - 30 8 22 245 222 22
-------------- 47% 41% 47% 51% 50% 6% 97% 53% 47% 57% - - - 100% 100% 100% - 9% 3% 29% 96% 98% 78%
FH F KLMQ KLMQ KLMQ S RS RSTw RSTW RST

PROBABLY DEMOCRAT 60 13 18 12 17 8 28 22 58 2 - - - 60 - 60 - 18 7 11 41 26 15
10% 9% 10% 11% 10% 3% 14% 18% 10% 10% - - - 21% - 100% - 6% 3% 15% 16% 12% 53%
F F KLMOQ KLMNO s RS RS RSTUV
Q

DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT 222 42 67 46 66 6 164 43 210 11 - - - 222 222 - - 12 1 10 203 196 7
37% 31% 37% 41% 39% 3% 83% 35% 37% 47% - - - 79% 100% - - 3% - 14% 79% 86% 25%
FH F KLMPQ KLMNP S rS RSTW RSTW RS
Q

REFUSED 3 2 - 1 1 - - 3 3 - - - - - - - - 3 3 - - - -
1% 1% - 1% - - - 3% 1% - - - - - - - - 1% 1% - - - -

(TOTAL REPUBLICAN - TOTAL -18 10 6 -12 -22 204 -188 -29 -11 -7 264 237 27 -282 -222 -60 - 229 220 10 -241 -222 -18
DEMOCRAT) -3% 7% 3% -11% -13% 84% -96% -23% -2% -28% 100% 100% 100% -100% -100% -100% - 69% 85% 13% -94% -98% -65%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 11
Table 4-2
QUESTION 3:
Now, thinking about the election for Senate that will be held in November - If the election for Senate were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting
for ... And would you DEFINTELY vote for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY?

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL REPUBLICAN 264 4 - 264 141 123 232 13 20 233 258 239 262 1 1 256 4 2 1
---------------- 44% 8% - 68% 71% 65% 85% 6% 7% 81% 46% 49% 88% - 5% 74% 2% 9% 12%
H I NO QRS

DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN 237 4 - 236 127 110 214 9 19 210 233 218 236 - - 231 3 1 -
39% 7% - 61% 64% 58% 79% 4% 6% 73% 42% 44% 79% - 1% 67% 1% 7% 6%
H I NO QRS

PROBABLY REPUBLICAN 27 - - 27 14 13 18 4 1 23 24 21 26 1 1 25 1 - -
5% 1% - 7% 7% 7% 7% 2% - 8% 4% 4% 9% - 4% 7% 1% 2% 6%
H I N Q
UNDECIDED 51 3 4 46 21 25 23 8 18 27 45 29 17 23 10 43 1 3 2
8% 6% 2% 12% 10% 13% 8% 4% 6% 9% 8% 6% 6% 8% 63% 13% 1% 13% 29%
h MN Q

TOTAL DEMOCRAT 282 46 196 76 34 42 18 207 250 26 252 223 20 259 3 42 220 16 4
-------------- 47% 86% 98% 20% 17% 22% 6% 90% 87% 9% 45% 45% 7% 92% 19% 12% 97% 78% 59%
b G J MO PRs P P

PROBABLY DEMOCRAT 60 19 22 37 16 21 5 37 44 15 48 42 9 51 - 25 28 5 2
10% 35% 11% 10% 8% 11% 2% 16% 15% 5% 9% 8% 3% 18% - 7% 13% 23% 29%
C G J O MO

DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT 222 27 174 39 18 20 13 171 206 11 204 181 10 208 3 17 192 11 2
37% 51% 87% 10% 9% 11% 5% 74% 71% 4% 37% 37% 3% 74% 19% 5% 85% 55% 30%
B G J MO PRS P

REFUSED 3 - - 3 3 - - 1 - 1 1 1 - - 2 3 1 - -
1% - - 1% 1% - - - - - - - - - 13% 1% - - -

(TOTAL REPUBLICAN - TOTAL -18 -42 -196 188 106 81 214 -194 -230 207 6 16 243 -258 -2 214 -216 -14 -3
DEMOCRAT) -3% -78% -98% 48% 54% 43% 79% -85% -80% 72% 1% 3% 81% -91% -15% 62% -95% -69% -48%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 12
Table 4-3
QUESTION 3:
Now, thinking about the election for Senate that will be held in November - If the election for Senate were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting
for ... And would you DEFINTELY vote for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL REPUBLICAN 264 229 14 1 2 13 141 123 112 106 3 1 25 12
---------------- 44% 49% 21% 31% 18% 34% 49% 39% 92% 87% 4% 1% 34% 23%
Ce h KLMN KLMN KL KL
DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN 237 203 12 1 2 13 127 110 103 95 3 1 19 10
39% 44% 19% 31% 18% 34% 44% 35% 85% 78% 4% 1% 27% 19%
C h KLMN KLMN KL KL

PROBABLY REPUBLICAN 27 26 2 - - - 14 13 8 11 - - 5 2
5% 6% 3% - - - 5% 4% 7% 9% - - 7% 4%
DEF KL KL kl

UNDECIDED 51 32 17 - - 2 23 27 4 7 - 1 8 10
8% 7% 25% - - 5% 8% 9% 4% 6% - 1% 12% 20%
DE BDEF k Kl KL IjKL
TOTAL DEMOCRAT 282 205 36 2 8 22 119 163 5 9 73 119 36 29
-------------- 47% 44% 54% 69% 82% 60% 42% 52% 4% 7% 96% 98% 50% 57%
B G IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

PROBABLY DEMOCRAT 60 48 3 - 3 5 23 37 - 8 12 16 9 13
10% 10% 5% - 33% 14% 8% 12% - 6% 16% 13% 13% 26%
D I I I I IJ

DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT 222 157 32 2 5 17 96 126 5 1 61 103 27 16
37% 34% 49% 69% 49% 45% 33% 40% 4% 1% 80% 85% 37% 31%
b IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

REFUSED 3 1 - - - 1 3 - - - - - 3 -
1% - - - - 2% 1% - - - - - 5% -

(TOTAL REPUBLICAN - TOTAL -18 24 -22 -1 -6 -10 22 -40 106 97 -70 -118 -12 -17
DEMOCRAT) -3% 5% -32% -38% -64% -26% 8% -13% 88% 80% -93% -97% -16% -33%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 13
Table 5-1
QUESTION 4:
And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=UNDECIDED 51 14 6 8 23 11 1 18 47 4 - - - - - - 51 43 21 22 7 4 3
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - - - - - - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 16 6 1 2 7 5 - 4 16 - - - - - - - 16 15 13 2 1 - 1
31% 42% 14% 25% 30% 43% 34% 21% 33% - - - - - - - 31% 35% 62% 9% 11% - 31%
J V TuV

DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE 7 - - - 7 2 - 5 5 2 - - - - - - 7 6 - 6 1 1 -
13% - - - 29% 14% - 27% 11% 45% - - - - - - 13% 14% - 27% 10% 16% -
bcd

HARD UNDECIDED 18 1 4 4 9 5 1 7 16 2 - - - - - - 18 12 7 5 5 4 2
36% 6% 65% 56% 41% 43% 66% 36% 35% 55% - - - - - - 36% 28% 32% 24% 79% 84% 69%
b Rt rt
NEITHER 10 7 1 2 - - - 3 10 - - - - - - - 10 10 1 9 - - -
20% 52% 21% 20% - - - 15% 21% - - - - - - - 20% 24% 6% 40% - - -
j uvw uw

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - 9 6 1 2 - 3 - -1 11 -2 - - - - - - 9 9 13 -4 - -1 1
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE) 18% 42% 14% 25% 2% 29% 34% -5% 22% -45% - - - - - - 18% 21% 62% -18% 1% -16% 31%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 14
Table 5-2
QUESTION 4:
And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=UNDECIDED 51 3 4 46 21 25 23 8 18 27 45 29 17 23 10 43 1 3 2
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 16 - - 15 - 15 4 4 10 3 16 6 5 10 - 15 - - -
31% 14% 9% 33% - 61% 16% 49% 56% 13% 34% 20% 29% 44% - 34% 34% 13% -
E E j o S
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE 7 - 1 6 6 - 4 - 2 4 7 4 4 1 2 6 - - -
13% - 18% 13% 28% - 19% - 9% 16% 14% 15% 24% 3% 17% 14% - - -
HARD UNDECIDED 18 3 3 15 6 9 6 3 5 11 13 9 7 3 8 14 1 1 2
36% 86% 73% 32% 29% 34% 28% 32% 27% 40% 29% 31% 40% 15% 83% 32% 66% 40% 100%
N P

NEITHER 10 - - 10 9 1 9 2 2 9 10 10 1 9 - 9 - 1 -
20% - - 22% 43% 5% 38% 19% 8% 32% 22% 35% 7% 38% - 21% - 47% -

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - 9 - - 9 -6 15 -1 4 9 -1 9 2 1 9 -2 9 - - -
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE) 18% 14% -9% 20% -28% 61% -3% 49% 47% -3% 20% 5% 4% 41% -17% 21% 34% 13% -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 15
Table 5-3
QUESTION 4:
And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=UNDECIDED 51 32 17 - - 2 23 27 4 7 - 1 8 10
100% 100% 100% - - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - 100% 100% 100%

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 16 8 8 - - - - 16 - 5 - - - 4
31% 24% 47% - - - - 57% - 69% - 34% - 39%
G im

DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE 7 2 4 - - - 7 - 2 - - - 5 -
13% 7% 25% - - - 28% - 37% - - - 59% -
n
HARD UNDECIDED 18 13 3 - - 2 8 10 3 2 - 1 2 5
36% 41% 21% - - 100% 34% 38% 63% 31% - 66% 22% 48%
BC

NEITHER 10 9 1 - - - 9 1 - - - - 2 1
20% 28% 7% - - - 38% 5% - - - - 19% 12%
f

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE - 9 5 4 - - - -7 16 -2 5 - - -5 4
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE) 18% 17% 21% - - - -28% 57% -37% 69% - 34% -59% 39%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 16
Table 6-1
QUESTION 5:
Now thinking about President Trump...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Is that strongly or somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL APPROVE 335 85 97 56 96 230 22 58 324 11 260 233 27 30 12 18 43 335 260 75 - - -
------------- 56% 62% 53% 49% 58% 94% 11% 47% 56% 44% 98% 98% 98% 11% 5% 31% 84% 100% 100% 100% - - -
GH G NOP NOP NOP o NO NOP UVW UVW UVW
STRONGLY APPROVE 260 67 82 42 69 203 9 35 257 2 228 214 14 8 1 7 21 260 260 - - - -
43% 49% 45% 37% 41% 84% 5% 28% 45% 10% 86% 91% 51% 3% 1% 12% 41% 78% 100% - - - -
GH G J MNOPQ MNOPQ NOP o o NOP TUVW RTUVW

SOMEWHAT APPROVE 75 18 15 14 27 26 13 23 67 8 31 18 13 22 10 11 22 75 - 75 - - -
12% 13% 8% 12% 16% 11% 7% 19% 12% 34% 12% 8% 47% 8% 5% 19% 43% 22% - 100% - - -
c G i O KLNOP o KLNOp SUVW RSUVW

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 256 50 80 56 70 12 172 61 246 9 4 3 1 245 203 41 7 - - - 256 227 28
---------------- 43% 36% 44% 49% 42% 5% 87% 50% 43% 39% 1% 1% 2% 87% 92% 69% 14% - - - 100% 100% 100%
FH F KLMPQ KLMPQ KLMQ RST RST RST
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 28 8 7 9 5 3 12 11 27 1 4 3 - 22 7 15 3 - - - 28 - 28
5% 6% 4% 8% 3% 1% 6% 9% 5% 4% 1% 1% 1% 8% 3% 25% 5% - - - 11% - 100%
F F KLMo KLMNO RSTV RSTUV
Q

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 227 42 74 47 64 9 160 50 219 9 - - - 222 196 26 4 - - - 227 227 -
38% 31% 40% 42% 39% 4% 81% 41% 38% 35% - - 1% 79% 88% 44% 9% - - - 89% 100% -
FH F KLMPQ KLMNP KLMQ RSTW RSTUW
Q

UNSURE / REFUSED 10 1 6 1 1 2 2 4 6 4 1 - - 7 7 - 1 - - - - - -
2% 1% 3% 1% - 1% 1% 3% 1% 17% - - - 3% 3% - 2% - - - - - -
kl KLm

(TOTAL APPROVE - TOTAL 79 35 17 - 27 218 -150 -3 78 1 256 229 26 -214 -191 -23 36 335 260 75 -256 -227 -28
DISAPPROVE) 13% 26% 9% - 16% 90% -76% -2% 14% 5% 97% 97% 96% -76% -86% -38% 70% 100% 100% 100% -100% -100% -100%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 17
Table 6-2
QUESTION 5:
Now thinking about President Trump...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Is that strongly or somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL APPROVE 335 - - 335 176 158 256 29 57 259 316 276 283 39 11 311 18 3 -
------------- 56% - - 86% 89% 84% 94% 13% 20% 90% 57% 56% 95% 14% 74% 91% 8% 15% 7%
H I N N QRS

STRONGLY APPROVE 260 - - 260 131 128 215 14 30 215 250 222 237 17 5 250 7 2 -
43% - - 67% 66% 68% 79% 6% 10% 75% 45% 45% 79% 6% 33% 73% 3% 11% -
H I NO n QRS S
SOMEWHAT APPROVE 75 - - 75 45 30 41 14 27 44 66 54 46 22 6 61 12 1 -
12% - - 19% 23% 16% 15% 6% 9% 15% 12% 11% 15% 8% 40% 18% 5% 4% 7%
H i N N QR

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 256 52 197 52 22 30 14 195 224 26 231 208 16 235 4 32 200 16 6
---------------- 43% 97% 99% 13% 11% 16% 5% 85% 78% 9% 42% 42% 5% 83% 26% 9% 88% 78% 93%
G J MO P P P

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 28 21 7 21 7 15 5 10 18 9 20 15 8 19 1 11 13 2 2
5% 40% 3% 6% 3% 8% 2% 4% 6% 3% 4% 3% 3% 7% 6% 3% 6% 8% 36%
C m p

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 227 30 190 30 16 15 9 185 206 17 211 192 8 216 3 21 187 14 4
38% 57% 95% 8% 8% 8% 3% 80% 71% 6% 38% 39% 3% 76% 21% 6% 83% 70% 57%
B G J MO P P P

UNSURE / REFUSED 10 2 3 2 - 2 2 6 7 2 9 8 - 8 - - 8 1 -
2% 3% 1% - - 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% - 3% - - 3% 7% -
MO PS

(TOTAL APPROVE - TOTAL 79 -52 -197 283 154 129 242 -166 -167 233 85 69 268 -196 7 280 -182 -13 -5
DISAPPROVE) 13% -97% -99% 73% 78% 68% 89% -72% -58% 81% 15% 14% 89% -69% 48% 81% -80% -63% -86%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 18
Table 6-3
QUESTION 5:
Now thinking about President Trump...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Is that strongly or somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL APPROVE 335 276 33 1 2 16 176 158 116 114 13 9 35 24
------------- 56% 59% 50% 31% 18% 42% 62% 51% 96% 93% 17% 8% 48% 46%
E e H KLMN KLMN KL KL

STRONGLY APPROVE 260 218 21 1 1 12 131 128 105 98 5 4 21 14
43% 47% 31% 30% 12% 33% 46% 41% 87% 80% 6% 4% 29% 28%
cE KLMN KLMN KL KL

SOMEWHAT APPROVE 75 58 13 - 1 3 45 30 11 16 8 5 14 9
12% 13% 19% 1% 6% 9% 16% 10% 9% 13% 11% 4% 19% 18%
D D h L L L
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 256 186 29 2 8 21 105 151 5 7 63 110 34 27
---------------- 43% 40% 44% 69% 82% 56% 36% 48% 4% 6% 83% 90% 47% 53%
BC G IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 28 20 7 - - 1 9 20 - 3 3 9 5 6
5% 4% 10% - - 3% 3% 6% - 3% 5% 7% 7% 11%
DE de i I i I

STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 227 166 22 2 8 20 96 131 5 4 59 101 29 21
38% 36% 33% 69% 82% 53% 33% 42% 4% 3% 78% 83% 40% 42%
BC g IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

UNSURE / REFUSED 10 5 4 - - 1 6 4 - 2 - 2 4 -
2% 1% 6% - - 2% 2% 1% - 1% - 2% 5% 1%
de

(TOTAL APPROVE - TOTAL 79 90 4 -1 -6 -5 72 7 111 107 -50 -100 1 -4
DISAPPROVE) 13% 19% 6% -38% -64% -13% 25% 2% 91% 88% -66% -83% 1% -7%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 19
Table 7-1
QUESTION 6:
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even though I may not approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President, I do like some of his policies and
some of the actions he has taken? Is that strongly or somewhat (agree / disagree)?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=DISAPPROVE/UNSURE/ 265 51 86 57 70 14 174 65 252 13 4 4 1 252 210 42 8 - - - 256 227 28
REFUSED 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - - - 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL AGREE 53 12 16 10 16 6 24 16 49 5 4 4 - 46 27 19 3 - - - 52 30 21
----------- 20% 22% 19% 17% 23% 43% 14% 25% 19% 35% 93% 99% 58% 18% 13% 45% 40% - - - 20% 13% 76%
NOPQ NOPQ NO UV

STRONGLY AGREE 12 - 4 - 8 1 3 4 8 4 2 2 - 10 6 3 - - - - 12 9 2
5% 1% 5% - 11% 5% 2% 5% 3% 28% 52% 53% 48% 4% 3% 8% - - - - 5% 4% 7%
BD nOpq no Q Q
SOMEWHAT AGREE 41 11 12 10 9 5 22 13 41 1 2 2 - 36 21 15 3 - - - 40 21 19
16% 22% 14% 17% 12% 38% 12% 20% 16% 7% 41% 46% 10% 14% 10% 37% 40% - - - 16% 9% 68%
NO v UV

TOTAL DISAGREE 200 38 67 42 52 7 147 43 192 8 - - - 196 174 22 4 - - - 197 190 7
-------------- 75% 75% 78% 73% 74% 50% 84% 66% 76% 58% 7% 1% 42% 78% 83% 53% 47% - - - 77% 84% 24%
fH KLP KLPq KL l W W

SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 26 5 11 6 4 3 10 11 25 1 - - - 24 19 5 1 - - - 26 21 4
10% 9% 13% 10% 6% 19% 6% 17% 10% 7% 2% - 16% 10% 9% 12% 15% - - - 10% 9% 16%
g L L l

STRONGLY DISAGREE 174 34 56 36 48 4 137 32 168 7 - - - 172 155 17 3 - - - 172 169 2
66% 66% 65% 64% 68% 30% 79% 49% 67% 51% 5% 1% 26% 68% 74% 41% 32% - - - 67% 74% 8%
FH KLmPq KLmPQ KL W W

DEPENDS / NEUTRAL 9 1 3 4 1 1 2 4 8 1 - - - 8 7 1 1 - - - 5 5 -
3% 3% 3% 7% 1% 8% 1% 7% 3% 8% - - - 3% 4% 2% 13% - - - 2% 2% 1%
KLM KLM

UNSURE / REFUSED 3 - - 2 1 - 1 1 3 - - - - 2 2 - - - - - 2 2 -
1% - - 3% 1% - - 2% 1% - - - - 1% 1% - - - - - 1% 1% -

(TOTAL AGREE - TOTAL -147 -27 -51 -32 -36 -1 -123 -27 -144 -3 4 4 - -150 -146 -3 -1 - - - -145 -160 15
DISAGREE) -55% -52% -59% -57% -51% -7% -71% -41% -57% -23% 87% 98% 15% -59% -70% -8% -8% - - - -57% -70% 52%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 20
Table 7-2
QUESTION 6:
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even though I may not approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President, I do like some of his policies and
some of the actions he has taken? Is that strongly or somewhat (agree / disagree)?

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=DISAPPROVE/UNSURE/ 265 53 200 53 22 31 16 201 232 28 240 215 16 244 4 32 208 17 6
REFUSED 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL AGREE 53 53 - 53 22 31 9 32 36 16 46 41 14 39 1 20 28 3 2
----------- 20% 100% - 100% 100% 100% 56% 16% 16% 59% 19% 19% 86% 16% 22% 64% 13% 16% 41%
C H I NO QR

STRONGLY AGREE 12 12 - 12 2 10 4 4 5 6 11 8 6 6 - 9 2 - -
5% 22% - 22% 7% 34% 28% 2% 2% 22% 5% 4% 36% 3% - 28% 1% 2% 7%
C e h i no O Qr

SOMEWHAT AGREE 41 41 - 41 21 21 4 29 31 10 35 33 8 32 1 12 25 2 2
16% 78% - 78% 93% 66% 28% 14% 13% 37% 15% 15% 50% 13% 22% 36% 12% 14% 34%
C f i n q
TOTAL DISAGREE 200 - 200 - - - 6 162 185 10 182 167 2 194 3 10 172 13 3
-------------- 75% - 100% - - - 38% 81% 80% 37% 76% 77% 14% 80% 78% 30% 83% 77% 59%
B G J M M P P

SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 26 - 26 - - - 1 19 21 4 23 20 - 24 - 3 18 2 2
10% - 13% - - - 7% 9% 9% 13% 10% 9% 1% 10% 6% 8% 9% 14% 32%
B M

STRONGLY DISAGREE 174 - 174 - - - 5 143 164 7 159 147 2 169 3 7 154 11 2
66% - 87% - - - 31% 71% 71% 24% 66% 68% 13% 70% 72% 22% 74% 63% 26%
B G J M m PS P

DEPENDS / NEUTRAL 9 - - - - - 1 5 8 1 9 6 - 9 - 2 6 1 -
3% - - - - - 7% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% - 4% - 6% 3% 7% -
MO S

UNSURE / REFUSED 3 - - - - - - 2 2 - 2 2 - 2 - - 3 - -
1% - - - - - - 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 1% - - 1% - -

(TOTAL AGREE - TOTAL -147 53 -200 53 22 31 3 -130 -149 6 -136 -126 12 -155 -2 11 -144 -11 -1
DISAGREE) -55% 100% -100% 100% 100% 100% 18% -65% -64% 22% -57% -58% 73% -64% -57% 34% -69% -61% -17%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 21
Table 7-3
QUESTION 6:
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even though I may not approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President, I do like some of his policies and
some of the actions he has taken? Is that strongly or somewhat (agree / disagree)?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=DISAPPROVE/UNSURE/ 265 191 33 2 8 22 110 155 5 8 63 112 38 27
REFUSED 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL AGREE 53 39 5 - 2 7 22 31 2 4 11 13 7 9
----------- 20% 20% 16% - 22% 32% 20% 20% 42% 43% 18% 12% 19% 34%
D D d l
STRONGLY AGREE 12 6 2 - - 4 2 10 - 1 1 1 - 3
5% 3% 6% - - 18% 1% 7% - 8% 2% 1% 1% 12%
DE g

SOMEWHAT AGREE 41 33 3 - 2 3 21 21 2 3 10 12 7 6
16% 18% 10% - 22% 13% 19% 13% 42% 35% 16% 10% 18% 22%
D

TOTAL DISAGREE 200 145 24 2 6 14 82 118 3 4 51 96 27 17
-------------- 75% 76% 72% 100% 78% 65% 74% 76% 58% 44% 82% 86% 71% 60%
BCf N
SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 26 16 3 - - 5 8 18 - 3 3 7 5 6
10% 8% 8% - - 21% 7% 11% - 31% 4% 7% 14% 22%
DE I i I

STRONGLY DISAGREE 174 129 21 2 6 10 74 100 3 1 49 89 21 11
66% 67% 64% 100% 78% 44% 67% 65% 58% 13% 78% 79% 57% 39%
BCF JN JmN J

DEPENDS / NEUTRAL 9 6 3 - - - 5 4 - 1 - 2 3 1
3% 3% 9% - - - 5% 3% - 13% - 2% 8% 4%
DEF

UNSURE / REFUSED 3 1 1 - - 1 1 2 - - - 1 1 -
1% 1% 3% - - 3% 1% 1% - - - 1% 2% 2%

(TOTAL AGREE - TOTAL -147 -106 -19 -2 -5 -7 -60 -87 -1 - -40 -83 -20 -7
DISAGREE) -55% -56% -56% -100% -57% -34% -54% -56% -16% -1% -64% -74% -52% -26%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 22
Table 8-1
QUESTION 7:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

JOSH HAWLEY

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
TOTAL FAVORABLE 272 69 80 49 74 201 17 38 263 9 232 214 18 18 13 5 23 256 215 41 14 9 5
--------------- 45% 51% 44% 43% 44% 83% 9% 31% 46% 36% 88% 90% 65% 6% 6% 8% 45% 77% 83% 55% 6% 4% 19%
GH G MNOPQ MNOPQ NOP NOP TUVW TUVW UVW v

STRONGLY FAVORABLE 187 57 46 38 46 148 9 20 185 2 174 169 5 6 3 2 7 184 164 20 3 2 1
31% 42% 25% 34% 27% 61% 5% 16% 32% 8% 66% 72% 17% 2% 2% 4% 14% 55% 63% 26% 1% 1% 3%
Ce GH G J MNOPQ MNOPQ NO TUVW rTUVW UVW

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 85 12 34 11 28 53 8 18 78 7 58 45 13 12 9 3 15 72 51 21 11 7 4
14% 9% 18% 10% 17% 22% 4% 15% 14% 28% 22% 19% 48% 4% 4% 4% 30% 22% 20% 28% 4% 3% 16%
bd b G G NOP NOP KLNOP NOP UV UV UV
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 229 37 84 45 63 21 141 62 224 5 13 9 4 207 171 37 8 29 14 14 195 185 10
----------------- 38% 27% 46% 40% 38% 9% 72% 50% 39% 21% 5% 4% 14% 73% 77% 61% 17% 9% 5% 19% 76% 81% 35%
B b FH F j KLMQ KLMpQ KLMQ S RSTW RSTW RS

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 49 6 21 8 15 6 24 18 49 1 5 2 2 36 22 14 8 17 6 11 32 25 7
8% 4% 11% 7% 9% 2% 12% 14% 8% 3% 2% 1% 9% 13% 10% 24% 17% 5% 2% 14% 13% 11% 25%
b F F KL KL KLo s RS rS RS

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 180 31 63 37 49 15 118 44 175 4 8 7 1 171 148 22 - 12 8 4 163 160 3
30% 23% 34% 33% 29% 6% 60% 36% 30% 18% 3% 3% 5% 61% 67% 37% - 3% 3% 5% 64% 70% 10%
b FH F Q Q KLMPQ KLMPQ KLMQ RSTW RSTW

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 56 16 13 13 14 12 19 15 49 7 13 10 3 28 22 6 14 31 21 10 23 18 5
9% 12% 7% 11% 8% 5% 9% 13% 8% 28% 5% 4% 10% 10% 10% 10% 28% 9% 8% 14% 9% 8% 17%
f i kL kl KL

NEVER HEARD OF 37 12 7 5 12 7 20 5 34 3 5 2 3 29 16 13 2 13 4 9 24 16 8
6% 9% 4% 5% 7% 3% 10% 4% 6% 11% 2% 1% 11% 10% 7% 21% 5% 4% 2% 12% 9% 7% 29%
Fh l KL KL KLoq s RS S RSuV

DO NOT KNOW 6 2 - - 4 1 - 2 5 1 1 1 - - - - 3 6 6 - - - -
1% 1% - - 2% - - 2% 1% 4% - - 1% - - - 5% 2% 2% - - - -
cd uvw UVW

REFUSED 1 - - 1 - - - 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - 1% - - - 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 42 32 -4 4 10 180 -125 -24 39 4 219 205 14 -190 -158 -32 14 227 201 27 -180 -176 -5
UNFAVORABLE) 7% 23% -2% 3% 6% 74% -63% -19% 7% 15% 83% 87% 51% -67% -71% -53% 28% 68% 77% 36% -71% -77% -16%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 23
Table 8-2
QUESTION 7:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

JOSH HAWLEY

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 272 9 6 265 144 121 272 - 27 238 272 265 248 18 5 254 11 5 1
--------------- 45% 16% 3% 68% 72% 64% 100% - 9% 83% 49% 54% 83% 7% 35% 74% 5% 24% 22%
c H I NO n QRS q
STRONGLY FAVORABLE 187 - 3 184 98 86 187 - 18 163 187 181 176 11 - 180 4 2 -
31% - 1% 47% 49% 45% 69% - 6% 57% 34% 37% 59% 4% - 52% 2% 10% 2%
H I NO O QRS

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 85 9 3 81 46 35 85 - 9 75 85 85 71 8 5 74 7 3 1
14% 16% 1% 21% 23% 19% 31% - 3% 26% 15% 17% 24% 3% 35% 21% 3% 14% 20%
C H I N N Q

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 229 32 162 61 29 32 - 229 206 20 228 226 18 208 1 36 177 13 4
----------------- 38% 60% 81% 16% 15% 17% - 100% 71% 7% 41% 46% 6% 74% 9% 10% 78% 63% 56%
B G J MO P P P

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 49 16 16 33 15 19 - 49 42 6 49 48 9 39 1 16 30 1 3
8% 30% 8% 9% 7% 10% - 22% 14% 2% 9% 10% 3% 14% 6% 5% 13% 4% 42%
C G J M Pr pr

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 180 16 145 28 14 14 - 180 165 14 179 179 9 169 - 20 147 12 1
30% 31% 73% 7% 7% 7% - 78% 57% 5% 32% 36% 3% 60% 3% 6% 65% 59% 14%
B G J MO PS PS

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 56 5 16 36 11 25 - - 35 16 56 - 16 34 5 31 21 1 -
9% 10% 8% 9% 6% 13% - - 12% 6% 10% - 5% 12% 34% 9% 9% 3% 4%
E J L M m

NEVER HEARD OF 37 7 17 20 12 8 - - 20 12 - - 13 22 1 17 16 2 1
6% 14% 8% 5% 6% 4% - - 7% 4% - - 4% 8% 7% 5% 7% 10% 18%

DO NOT KNOW 6 - - 6 3 3 - - - 1 - - 4 - 2 6 - - -
1% - - 2% 2% 2% - - - - - - 1% - 15% 2% - - -
qrs

REFUSED 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 42 -24 -156 204 115 89 272 -229 -179 218 44 39 229 -190 4 218 -166 -8 -2
UNFAVORABLE) 7% -44% -78% 53% 58% 47% 100% -100% -62% 76% 8% 8% 77% -67% 26% 63% -73% -39% -34%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 24
Table 8-3
QUESTION 7:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

JOSH HAWLEY

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 272 232 22 1 2 9 145 127 104 97 6 11 24 14
--------------- 45% 50% 33% 31% 24% 24% 50% 41% 86% 79% 8% 9% 33% 27%
CF h KLMN KLMN KL KL

STRONGLY FAVORABLE 187 164 11 1 2 4 98 89 77 71 2 7 11 9
31% 35% 17% 31% 24% 10% 34% 28% 64% 59% 3% 5% 15% 17%
CF KLMN KLMN k kl
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 85 68 11 - - 5 46 38 27 25 4 4 13 5
14% 15% 16% - - 14% 16% 12% 23% 21% 5% 3% 18% 10%
DE DE KLn KL kL

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 229 169 24 2 8 19 103 126 8 14 57 84 34 27
----------------- 38% 36% 35% 69% 76% 51% 36% 40% 6% 11% 75% 70% 48% 53%
Bc IJMN IJM IJ IJ

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 49 34 9 - 1 5 20 30 - 6 10 14 8 9
8% 7% 13% - 15% 13% 7% 9% - 5% 13% 12% 12% 18%
D D I I Ij I Ij

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 180 135 15 2 6 14 83 96 8 8 47 70 26 18
30% 29% 22% 69% 61% 38% 29% 31% 6% 6% 63% 58% 36% 35%
c IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 56 34 13 - - 8 18 38 6 7 4 15 8 7
9% 7% 20% - - 22% 6% 12% 5% 5% 5% 12% 11% 14%
DE bDE DE G i

NEVER HEARD OF 37 28 8 - - - 17 19 2 5 8 12 3 2
6% 6% 12% - - - 6% 6% 2% 4% 11% 10% 4% 5%
DEF DEF i I

DO NOT KNOW 6 4 - - - - 3 3 1 - - - 2 -
1% 1% - - - - 1% 1% 1% - - - 3% -
cdef

REFUSED 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - - - 1 -
- - - - - 2% - - - - - - 1% -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 42 63 -2 -1 -5 -10 41 1 97 83 -51 -74 -11 -13
UNFAVORABLE) 7% 14% -2% -38% -52% -27% 14% - 80% 68% -67% -61% -15% -26%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 25
Table 9-1
QUESTION 8:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

CLAIRE MCCASKILL

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
TOTAL FAVORABLE 289 53 92 62 82 26 176 71 276 12 20 19 1 250 206 44 18 57 30 27 224 206 18
--------------- 48% 38% 50% 55% 49% 11% 89% 58% 48% 51% 8% 8% 4% 89% 93% 73% 36% 17% 12% 36% 88% 91% 64%
B FH F KLMpQ KLMPQ KLMQ KLM RS RSTW RSTW RST

STRONGLY FAVORABLE 220 41 68 45 65 12 155 40 217 3 7 7 - 205 175 30 7 33 16 18 182 173 9
37% 30% 37% 40% 39% 5% 79% 32% 38% 12% 3% 3% 1% 73% 79% 50% 14% 10% 6% 24% 71% 76% 30%
FH F J KLMPQ KLMPQ KLMQ rS RSTW RSTW rS

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 69 11 24 17 16 14 21 32 59 9 12 11 1 45 31 14 11 24 14 9 42 33 10
11% 8% 13% 15% 10% 6% 10% 26% 10% 39% 5% 5% 4% 16% 14% 23% 22% 7% 6% 12% 17% 14% 34%
FG I KLM KLM KLM RS RS RStv
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 287 73 88 49 76 204 16 48 276 11 233 210 23 26 11 15 27 259 215 44 26 17 9
----------------- 48% 54% 48% 44% 46% 84% 8% 39% 48% 44% 88% 89% 85% 9% 5% 26% 53% 77% 83% 59% 10% 7% 33%
GH G NOPQ NOPQ NOPQ NO NOp TUVW TUVW UVw UV

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 81 17 20 16 26 49 13 13 72 9 45 35 11 25 10 15 10 57 42 16 22 14 8
13% 13% 11% 15% 16% 20% 7% 11% 12% 37% 17% 15% 39% 9% 5% 26% 19% 17% 16% 21% 9% 6% 27%
GH i NO nO KLNO NO UV UV uV uV

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 206 56 68 33 50 155 3 35 205 2 188 175 13 1 1 - 17 202 174 29 4 3 2
34% 41% 37% 29% 30% 64% 2% 28% 36% 7% 71% 74% 47% - - - 34% 60% 67% 38% 2% 1% 6%
GH G J MNOPQ MNOPQ NOP NOP TUVW TUVW UVW

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 17 9 2 1 5 12 3 3 16 1 10 7 3 3 3 - 3 15 11 4 2 2 -
3% 7% 1% 1% 3% 5% 1% 2% 3% 5% 4% 3% 10% 1% 1% - 5% 5% 4% 5% 1% 1% -
g NoP P np UVW UvW

NEVER HEARD OF 4 2 - - 1 1 2 - 4 - - - - 3 2 1 - 1 1 - 3 2 1
1% 1% - - 1% 1% 1% - 1% - - - - 1% 1% 1% - - - - 1% 1% 3%

DO NOT KNOW 3 - - - 3 - - - 3 - - - - - - - 3 3 3 - - - -
- - - - 2% - - - - - - - - - - - 5% 1% 1% - - - -

REFUSED 1 - - 1 - - - 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - 1% - - - 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 2 -21 4 13 6 -177 160 23 - 2 -214 -191 -22 224 195 29 -8 -202 -185 -17 198 189 9
UNFAVORABLE) - -15% 2% 11% 3% -73% 81% 19% - 7% -81% -81% -81% 79% 88% 48% -17% -60% -71% -23% 78% 83% 32%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 26
Table 9-2
QUESTION 8:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

CLAIRE MCCASKILL

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 289 36 185 93 42 52 27 206 289 - 269 234 27 257 4 62 208 14 3
--------------- 48% 68% 93% 24% 21% 27% 10% 90% 100% - 48% 48% 9% 91% 29% 18% 92% 69% 47%
B G J MO PRS P
STRONGLY FAVORABLE 220 22 154 55 22 33 10 170 220 - 206 180 12 208 - 34 172 12 2
37% 41% 77% 14% 11% 17% 4% 74% 76% - 37% 37% 4% 74% - 10% 76% 60% 30%
B G J O MO PS P

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 69 14 31 38 19 19 17 36 69 - 62 53 15 49 4 28 36 2 1
11% 27% 15% 10% 10% 10% 6% 16% 24% - 11% 11% 5% 17% 29% 8% 16% 9% 17%
G J M P

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 287 16 10 276 150 126 238 20 - 287 274 258 258 19 8 265 12 6 2
----------------- 48% 31% 5% 71% 75% 66% 88% 9% - 100% 49% 52% 86% 7% 50% 77% 5% 29% 35%
C H I NO N QRS Q

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 81 13 9 70 37 33 55 9 - 81 73 64 61 12 7 67 10 3 -
13% 24% 5% 18% 19% 17% 20% 4% - 28% 13% 13% 20% 4% 47% 19% 4% 17% 3%
C H I N N QS

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 206 4 1 206 113 93 183 11 - 206 201 194 197 8 - 199 2 2 2
34% 7% - 53% 57% 49% 67% 5% - 72% 36% 39% 66% 3% 3% 58% 1% 12% 33%
H I NO QR q

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 17 1 2 16 7 9 7 2 - - 12 - 11 4 2 13 3 - -
3% 1% 1% 4% 4% 5% 2% 1% - - 2% - 4% 2% 14% 4% 1% 1% 4%
L

NEVER HEARD OF 4 - 3 1 - 1 - 1 - - - - - 2 1 - 2 - 1
1% - 1% - - - - - - - - - - 1% 7% - 1% 1% 13%

DO NOT KNOW 3 - - 3 - 3 - - - - - - 3 - - 3 - - -
- - - 1% - 1% - - - - - - 1% - 1% 1% - - -

REFUSED 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 2 20 175 -182 -108 -74 -211 186 289 -287 -6 -24 -232 238 -3 -203 196 8 1
UNFAVORABLE) - 37% 87% -47% -54% -39% -77% 81% 100% -100% -1% -5% -77% 84% -21% -59% 87% 40% 12%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 27
Table 9-3
QUESTION 8:
Switching topics slightly for a moment, I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person, and
then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and
we'll move on.

And do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?

CLAIRE MCCASKILL

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL FAVORABLE 289 213 44 2 8 13 124 164 14 12 68 108 35 36
--------------- 48% 46% 65% 70% 82% 36% 43% 52% 11% 10% 90% 89% 49% 71%
BF BF g IJMN IJMN IJ IJm

STRONGLY FAVORABLE 220 164 30 2 7 8 88 131 7 6 59 96 18 22
37% 35% 44% 69% 73% 22% 31% 42% 6% 5% 78% 79% 24% 43%
BF G IJMN IJMN IJ IJm
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 69 49 14 - 1 5 36 33 7 7 9 12 18 14
11% 10% 21% 1% 9% 13% 13% 10% 6% 6% 12% 10% 24% 27%
d D IJL IJkL

TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 287 236 19 1 2 23 154 133 102 102 8 9 34 15
----------------- 48% 51% 29% 30% 18% 62% 54% 43% 84% 83% 10% 7% 46% 29%
Ce CE H KLMN KLMN KL KL

SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 81 65 4 - 1 9 41 40 24 24 5 8 11 2
13% 14% 7% - 6% 25% 14% 13% 20% 20% 7% 7% 15% 4%
D D KLN KLN n

STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 206 171 15 1 1 14 113 93 78 77 2 1 22 13
34% 37% 22% 30% 12% 37% 39% 30% 64% 63% 3% 1% 31% 25%
ce H KLMN KLMN KL KL

HEARD OF, NO OPINION 17 12 4 - - - 8 10 5 7 - 3 3 -
3% 3% 5% - - - 3% 3% 4% 5% - 2% 4% 1%
DEF k Kn

NEVER HEARD OF 4 3 - - - - - 4 - 1 - 2 - -
1% 1% - - - - - 1% - 1% - 2% - -

DO NOT KNOW 3 3 - - - - - 3 - - - - - -
- 1% - - - - - 1% - - - - - -

REFUSED 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - - - 1 -
- - - - - 2% - - - - - - 1% -

(TOTAL FAVORABLE - TOTAL 2 -23 24 1 6 -10 -29 31 -88 -89 60 99 2 21
UNFAVORABLE) - -5% 36% 40% 64% -27% -10% 10% -73% -73% 80% 82% 2% 42%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 28
Table 10-1
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Josh Hawley, and Democrat Claire McCaskill?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL HAWLEY 299 72 95 48 84 223 15 46 289 10 262 236 26 20 10 9 17 283 237 46 16 8 8
------------ 50% 53% 52% 42% 51% 92% 8% 38% 50% 43% 99% 100% 96% 7% 5% 16% 35% 85% 91% 62% 6% 3% 28%
GH G NOPQ NOPQ NOPQ o NO TUVW RTUVW UVW UV

DEFINITELY JOSH HAWLEY 265 64 86 45 69 210 7 42 260 5 247 231 16 7 2 5 11 257 227 30 7 1 6
44% 47% 47% 40% 41% 87% 3% 34% 45% 19% 94% 98% 59% 2% 1% 8% 21% 77% 87% 40% 3% 1% 22%
GH G J MNOPQ KMNOP NOPQ no TUVW RTUVW UV UV
Q

PROBABLY JOSH HAWLEY 30 7 8 3 12 13 7 3 24 6 14 4 10 11 8 3 4 23 7 16 7 7 -
5% 5% 5% 2% 7% 5% 4% 3% 4% 24% 5% 2% 37% 4% 4% 5% 9% 7% 3% 22% 3% 3% -
d i L KLNOP SUvW W RSUVW W W
Q
LEAN JOSH HAWLEY 5 2 - - 3 - 2 1 5 - 1 1 - 2 - 2 3 3 3 - 2 - 2
1% 1% - - 2% - 1% 1% 1% - - - - 1% - 2% 5% 1% 1% - 1% - 6%
j

TOTAL MCCASKILL 283 61 87 58 77 14 178 71 272 10 1 - 1 259 208 51 23 39 17 22 235 216 19
--------------- 47% 45% 47% 51% 46% 6% 90% 57% 47% 42% - - 2% 92% 94% 84% 46% 12% 6% 30% 92% 95% 68%
FH F KLMQ KLMQ KLMQ KLM s RS RSTW RSTW RST

LEAN CLAIRE MCCASKILL 4 1 - 3 - - 1 2 4 - - - - 3 3 - 2 2 - 2 1 1 -
1% 1% - 3% - - 1% 1% 1% - - - - 1% 1% - 3% - - 2% 1% 1% -
j

PROBABLY CLAIRE MCCASKILL 63 19 19 9 16 5 20 22 59 4 - - - 43 14 29 20 24 12 11 38 25 13
10% 14% 10% 8% 10% 2% 10% 18% 10% 14% - - 1% 15% 6% 48% 39% 7% 5% 15% 15% 11% 45%
F F KLMO KLm KLMNO KLMnO RS S RSTUV

DEFINITELY CLAIRE 215 40 68 46 61 9 156 47 209 7 1 - - 213 191 22 2 14 4 10 196 189 7
MCCASKILL 36% 30% 37% 41% 36% 4% 80% 38% 36% 28% - - 1% 76% 86% 36% 4% 4% 2% 13% 77% 83% 23%
FH F KLMPQ KLMNP KLMQ s RSTW RSTW RS
Q

HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW 15 3 1 6 5 6 4 4 12 3 1 - 1 3 3 - 10 11 5 6 4 3 1
3% 2% 1% 5% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 14% - - 2% 1% 1% - 19% 3% 2% 8% 2% 1% 3%
C klnop

OTHER 1 - 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - - - 1 - -
- - 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1% - - - - - 1%

WOULD NOT VOTE 1 - - - 1 - - 1 1 - - - - - - - - 1 1 - - - -
- - - - - - - 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

REFUSED 1 - - 1 - - - 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - 1% - - - 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Continued
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 29
Table 10-1
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Josh Hawley, and Democrat Claire McCaskill?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

(TOTAL HAWLEY - TOTAL 17 11 8 -10 8 209 -162 -24 16 - 261 236 26 -239 -198 -41 -6 244 220 24 -219 -208 -12
MCCASKILL) 3% 8% 4% -9% 5% 86% -82% -20% 3% 1% 99% 100% 94% -85% -89% -69% -11% 73% 85% 32% -86% -91% -41%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 30
Table 10-2
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Josh Hawley, and Democrat Claire McCaskill?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
TOTAL HAWLEY 299 14 2 297 149 148 248 18 27 258 282 260 299 - - 281 12 3 3
------------ 50% 26% 1% 77% 75% 78% 91% 8% 9% 90% 51% 53% 100% - - 82% 5% 13% 41%
C H I NO QRS q

DEFINITELY JOSH HAWLEY 265 7 1 264 138 126 233 13 22 235 258 240 265 - - 256 5 2 -
44% 13% 1% 68% 69% 66% 86% 6% 7% 82% 46% 49% 88% - - 74% 2% 11% 6%
C H I NO QRS

PROBABLY JOSH HAWLEY 30 6 1 29 11 18 13 5 5 22 23 18 30 - - 22 5 1 2
5% 11% - 7% 6% 9% 5% 2% 2% 8% 4% 4% 10% - - 6% 2% 3% 33%
c I NO q q
LEAN JOSH HAWLEY 5 2 - 5 1 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 5 - - 3 2 - -
1% 3% - 1% - 2% 1% - - 1% - - 2% - - 1% 1% - 2%
no

TOTAL MCCASKILL 283 39 194 78 39 39 18 208 257 19 260 224 - 283 - 49 212 16 4
--------------- 47% 72% 97% 20% 20% 20% 7% 91% 89% 7% 47% 45% - 100% - 14% 94% 80% 59%
B G J MO Ps P P

LEAN CLAIRE MCCASKILL 4 - 1 2 2 - - 2 4 - 4 2 - 4 - 2 3 - -
1% - 1% - 1% - - 1% 2% - 1% - - 2% - - 1% - -
j

PROBABLY CLAIRE MCCASKILL 63 11 26 34 16 19 12 29 48 12 56 39 - 63 - 28 27 5 1
10% 20% 13% 9% 8% 10% 4% 13% 16% 4% 10% 8% - 22% - 8% 12% 23% 17%
G J MO

DEFINITELY CLAIRE 215 28 166 42 22 20 6 178 205 8 199 183 - 215 - 19 182 12 3
MCCASKILL 36% 52% 83% 11% 11% 11% 2% 78% 71% 3% 36% 37% - 76% - 6% 80% 58% 42%
B G J MO Prs P p

HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW 15 1 3 12 10 2 5 1 4 8 12 7 - - 15 13 2 - -
3% 2% 2% 3% 5% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% - - 100% 4% 1% - -
MN qRS

OTHER 1 - 1 - - - - 1 - 1 1 1 - - - - - 1 -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6% -

WOULD NOT VOTE 1 - - 1 1 - - 1 - 1 1 1 - - - 1 - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
REFUSED 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Continued
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 31
Table 10-2
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Josh Hawley, and Democrat Claire McCaskill?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

(TOTAL HAWLEY - TOTAL 17 -25 -192 219 110 109 229 -190 -230 239 23 36 299 -283 - 232 -200 -14 -1
MCCASKILL) 3% -46% -96% 57% 55% 58% 84% -83% -80% 83% 4% 7% 100% -100% - 67% -88% -67% -18%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 32
Table 10-3
QUESTION 9:
If the election for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, who would you vote for if the race was between Republican Josh Hawley, and Democrat Claire McCaskill?

And Would That Be Definitely or Probably For _____?

Toward Which Candidate Do You Lean?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

TOTAL HAWLEY 299 245 25 1 2 22 150 149 112 112 6 10 29 17
------------ 50% 52% 37% 31% 18% 57% 52% 48% 92% 92% 8% 8% 40% 33%
cE e KLMN KLMN KL KL
DEFINITELY JOSH HAWLEY 265 224 20 1 2 12 139 126 107 104 3 4 28 14
44% 48% 30% 31% 18% 32% 48% 40% 88% 85% 4% 3% 39% 28%
Ce KLMN KLMN KL KL

PROBABLY JOSH HAWLEY 30 16 5 - - 9 11 19 5 8 3 4 - 3
5% 3% 7% - - 24% 4% 6% 4% 7% 4% 3% 1% 6%
DE bDE M

LEAN JOSH HAWLEY 5 4 - - - 1 1 4 - - - 2 1 -
1% 1% - - - 1% - 1% - - - 1% 1% -
cde
TOTAL MCCASKILL 283 208 42 2 8 15 123 160 5 9 68 110 37 33
--------------- 47% 44% 62% 69% 82% 41% 43% 51% 4% 7% 90% 90% 52% 65%
B Bf IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

LEAN CLAIRE MCCASKILL 4 3 1 - - - 2 3 - - - 1 2 -
1% 1% 2% - - - 1% 1% - - - 1% 2% -

PROBABLY CLAIRE MCCASKILL 63 40 13 - 2 7 22 41 - 5 3 17 9 13
10% 9% 20% - 25% 20% 8% 13% - 5% 4% 14% 13% 25%
D D d g I IJK I IJK

DEFINITELY CLAIRE 215 165 27 2 6 8 100 116 5 3 65 92 26 20
MCCASKILL 36% 35% 40% 69% 57% 21% 35% 37% 4% 3% 86% 75% 37% 40%
IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW 15 12 - - - - 12 4 4 1 2 2 4 -
3% 3% - - - - 4% 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 5% -
CDEF h

OTHER 1 1 - - - - - 1 - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - 1% -

WOULD NOT VOTE 1 1 - - - - 1 - - - - - 1 -
- - - - - - - - - - - - 1% -

REFUSED 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - - - 1 -
- - - - - 2% - - - - - - 1% -

(TOTAL HAWLEY - TOTAL 17 37 -17 -1 -6 6 27 -11 106 103 -62 -100 -8 -16
MCCASKILL) 3% 8% -25% -38% -64% 17% 10% -3% 88% 84% -82% -83% -11% -32%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 33
Table 11-1
QUESTION 10:
I would like to ask you a few confidential statistical questions, for generic classification purposes only.

In the Presidential election in 2016, please tell me who you voted for. As you'll recall, the candidates were...

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN 344 81 97 62 104 234 17 64 331 13 256 231 25 42 17 25 43 311 250 61 32 21 11
57% 59% 53% 54% 62% 96% 9% 52% 57% 52% 97% 98% 91% 15% 8% 42% 85% 93% 96% 82% 12% 9% 38%
GH G NOP NOP NOP O NO NOP UVW TUVW UVW UV
HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRAT 226 48 73 48 58 3 172 47 219 8 4 3 1 220 192 28 1 18 7 12 200 187 13
38% 35% 40% 42% 35% 1% 87% 38% 38% 32% 2% 1% 5% 78% 86% 47% 3% 5% 3% 16% 78% 82% 45%
FH F KLMPQ KLMNP KLMQ S RSTW RSTW RST
Q

GARY JOHNSON, LIBERTARIAN 8 2 4 3 - - 2 5 8 - 1 1 - 7 4 3 - 1 - - 7 6 1
1% 1% 2% 2% - - 1% 4% 1% - - - 1% 2% 2% 5% 1% - - - 3% 3% 2%
f kl rS rs
JILL STEIN, GREEN PARTY 5 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 5 - - - - 4 3 1 1 1 1 - 4 4 -
1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 2% 1% - - - - 1% 1% 2% 2% - - - 2% 2% 1%
j

OTHER NAMES 7 2 4 - 1 3 3 1 6 1 1 1 - 5 5 - 1 1 1 - 5 4 1
1% 1% 2% - 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 4% - - - 2% 2% - 2% - - 1% 2% 2% 3%

DID NOT VOTE 6 1 4 - 1 1 2 2 4 2 1 - - 4 2 2 2 - - - 6 4 2
1% 1% 2% - 1% - 1% 2% 1% 8% - - 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% - - 1% 2% 2% 8%
rS

REFUSED 3 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 2 1 1 1 - - - - 2 1 1 - 2 1 1
1% 1% - - 1% - - 2% - 4% - - 1% - - - 3% - - 1% 1% - 3%

(TRUMP - CLINTON) 117 33 25 14 46 232 -155 17 112 5 252 228 24 -178 -175 -3 42 293 243 50 -168 -166 -2
20% 24% 13% 12% 28% 95% -79% 14% 20% 20% 95% 96% 86% -63% -79% -5% 83% 88% 94% 67% -66% -73% -7%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 34
Table 11-2
QUESTION 10:
I would like to ask you a few confidential statistical questions, for generic classification purposes only.

In the Presidential election in 2016, please tell me who you voted for. As you'll recall, the candidates were...

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN 344 20 10 332 175 157 254 36 62 265 321 282 281 49 13 344 - - -
57% 38% 5% 86% 88% 83% 93% 16% 21% 92% 58% 57% 94% 17% 85% 100% - - -
C H I N N QRS

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRAT 226 28 172 46 18 28 11 177 208 12 208 186 12 212 2 - 226 - -
38% 52% 86% 12% 9% 15% 4% 77% 72% 4% 37% 38% 4% 75% 14% - 100% - -
B G J MO PRS
GARY JOHNSON, LIBERTARIAN 8 2 6 3 2 1 2 5 5 3 7 7 1 7 - - - 8 -
1% 4% 3% 1% 1% - 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% - 2% - - - 40% -
mo PQS

JILL STEIN, GREEN PARTY 5 - 4 1 - 1 1 4 4 1 5 5 1 4 - - - 5 -
1% - 2% - - 1% - 2% 1% - 1% 1% - 1% - - - 25% -
PQS

OTHER NAMES 7 1 4 2 1 1 2 4 5 2 6 6 1 6 - - - 7 -
1% 2% 2% - 1% - 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% - 2% - - - 35% -
o PQS

DID NOT VOTE 6 2 3 3 2 1 1 4 3 2 5 5 3 4 - - - - 6
1% 5% 2% 1% 1% - 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - - - - 100%
PQR

REFUSED 3 - 2 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 3 1 1 2 - - - - -
1% - 1% - - - - - - - 1% - - 1% 1% - - - -

(TRUMP - CLINTON) 117 -7 -162 286 157 129 243 -141 -146 253 112 96 269 -163 11 344 -226 - -
20% -14% -81% 74% 79% 68% 89% -62% -51% 88% 20% 20% 90% -58% 71% 100% -100% - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 35
Table 11-3
QUESTION 10:
I would like to ask you a few confidential statistical questions, for generic classification purposes only.

In the Presidential election in 2016, please tell me who you voted for. As you'll recall, the candidates were...

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN 344 287 29 1 1 18 181 163 117 118 11 6 40 23
57% 62% 43% 30% 12% 48% 63% 52% 96% 96% 15% 5% 56% 46%
CE e e H KLMN KLMN l KL KL

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRAT 226 160 35 2 5 16 91 135 - 2 62 110 26 20
38% 34% 52% 69% 51% 42% 32% 43% - 2% 82% 91% 37% 39%
b G IJMN IJMN IJ IJ

GARY JOHNSON, LIBERTARIAN 8 4 - - 4 - 3 5 - - 1 2 2 3
1% 1% 1% 1% 36% - 1% 2% - - 1% 1% 3% 6%
bcf
JILL STEIN, GREEN PARTY 5 4 1 - - - 4 1 2 - 1 - 1 1
1% 1% 2% - - - 1% - 2% - 1% - 1% 3%
OTHER NAMES 7 4 2 - - 1 3 4 1 2 1 2 1 -
1% 1% 3% - - 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% -
de

DID NOT VOTE 6 4 - - - 3 4 3 - - 1 1 1 1
1% 1% - - - 7% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 3%

REFUSED 3 3 - - - - 1 2 1 - - - 1 2
1% 1% - - - - - 1% - - - - 1% 3%

(TRUMP - CLINTON) 117 127 -6 -1 -4 2 89 28 116 115 -50 -104 14 3
20% 27% -9% -39% -39% 6% 31% 9% 96% 95% -67% -86% 19% 7%

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 36
Table 12-1
QUESTION 11:
In which age category do you fall into?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

18-34 137 137 - - - 61 46 15 133 3 65 58 7 55 42 13 14 85 67 18 50 42 8
23% 100% - - - 25% 23% 12% 23% 14% 25% 24% 26% 20% 19% 21% 28% 25% 26% 24% 20% 19% 27%
CDE H H

35-54 183 - 183 - - 74 58 45 173 10 92 82 10 86 67 18 6 97 82 15 80 74 7
31% - 100% - - 30% 30% 37% 30% 41% 35% 35% 37% 30% 30% 30% 11% 29% 31% 20% 31% 32% 23%
BDE Q Q Q Q Q

55-64 113 - - 113 - 43 36 31 111 2 46 41 5 58 46 12 8 56 42 14 56 47 9
19% - - 100% - 18% 18% 25% 19% 9% 18% 17% 19% 21% 21% 20% 16% 17% 16% 19% 22% 21% 31%
BCE
65+ 167 - - - 167 66 57 31 158 9 61 56 5 83 66 17 23 96 69 27 70 64 5
28% - - - 100% 27% 29% 26% 27% 35% 23% 24% 17% 29% 30% 28% 45% 29% 27% 37% 27% 28% 19%
BCD km

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MEAN 54 26 45 60 83 53 54 56 54 57 51 52 49 55 55 54 59 53 52 57 55 55 51
kl kl

MEDIAN 52 26 45 60 83 51 52 55 52 51 49 49 47 54 55 53 61 51 50 58 53 53 54

STANDARD DEVIATION 21 - - - - 21 21 18 21 21 20 20 19 21 21 21 24 22 21 22 20 20 20

STANDARD ERROR 1 - - - - 1 2 2 1 4 1 1 4 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 4

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 37
Table 12-2
QUESTION 11:
In which age category do you fall into?

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

18-34 137 12 38 97 48 49 69 37 53 73 122 101 72 61 3 81 48 5 1
23% 22% 19% 25% 24% 26% 25% 16% 18% 25% 22% 21% 24% 22% 20% 23% 21% 26% 20%
H i
35-54 183 16 67 113 62 51 80 84 92 88 176 163 95 87 1 97 73 9 4
31% 30% 34% 29% 31% 27% 29% 37% 32% 31% 32% 33% 32% 31% 7% 28% 32% 43% 59%
O O

55-64 113 10 42 66 37 29 49 45 62 49 107 94 48 58 6 62 48 4 -
19% 18% 21% 17% 19% 15% 18% 20% 21% 17% 19% 19% 16% 21% 40% 18% 21% 19% -
S S S

65+ 167 16 52 113 52 61 74 63 82 76 150 133 84 77 5 104 58 3 1
28% 30% 26% 29% 26% 32% 27% 28% 28% 26% 27% 27% 28% 27% 33% 30% 26% 12% 21%
R
REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MEAN 54 55 54 53 53 54 53 55 55 52 54 54 53 54 59 54 53 47 49

MEDIAN 52 53 52 51 51 52 51 53 54 50 52 52 50 53 60 53 52 46 45

STANDARD DEVIATION 21 21 20 22 21 22 21 20 20 21 21 20 21 21 20 21 20 17 19

STANDARD ERROR 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 4 7

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 38
Table 12-3
QUESTION 11:
In which age category do you fall into?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

18-34 137 103 20 - 2 5 64 72 32 28 17 29 7 8
23% 22% 30% - 21% 13% 22% 23% 27% 23% 23% 24% 10% 15%
D D M M M

35-54 183 138 15 2 3 19 85 99 37 37 16 42 27 19
31% 29% 23% 72% 34% 51% 30% 32% 31% 30% 21% 35% 37% 37%
c bc k
55-64 113 92 14 1 1 5 64 49 23 20 17 19 22 9
19% 20% 21% 27% 12% 12% 22% 16% 19% 16% 23% 16% 31% 17%
h jl

65+ 167 135 17 - 3 9 73 93 28 38 25 32 16 16
28% 29% 26% 1% 34% 24% 26% 30% 23% 31% 33% 26% 22% 31%
D D d

REFUSED - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MEAN 54 54 52 49 55 53 53 54 51 54 56 52 56 56

MEDIAN 52 53 51 48 51 49 53 51 50 52 57 49 56 53

STANDARD DEVIATION 21 21 22 7 22 19 20 21 21 22 22 21 17 20

STANDARD ERROR 1 1 3 4 7 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 39
Table 13-1
QUESTION 12:
And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic background?

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WHITE OR CAUCASIAN 467 103 138 92 135 213 145 87 455 12 229 203 26 205 157 48 32 276 218 58 186 166 20
78% 75% 75% 81% 81% 88% 74% 71% 79% 48% 87% 86% 94% 73% 71% 80% 63% 82% 84% 78% 73% 73% 70%
GH J NOq NOq NOQ UV UV

AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK 67 20 15 14 17 11 25 22 60 7 14 12 2 36 32 3 17 33 21 13 29 22 7
11% 15% 8% 12% 10% 5% 13% 18% 10% 29% 5% 5% 6% 13% 15% 5% 33% 10% 8% 17% 11% 10% 25%
F F KL KLp KLMnP s

HISPANIC OR LATINO 3 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3 - 1 1 - 2 2 - - 1 1 - 2 2 -
1% - 1% 1% - - 1% - 1% - - - - 1% 1% - - - - - 1% 1% -

ASIAN OR PACIFIC ISLANDER 10 2 3 1 3 - 6 3 9 1 2 2 - 8 5 3 - 2 1 1 8 8 -
2% 2% 2% 1% 2% - 3% 2% 1% 6% 1% 1% - 3% 2% 5% - 1% - 1% 3% 4% -
F MQ mq rsW rsW
MULTI-RACIAL OR OTHER 38 5 19 5 9 12 13 6 33 4 13 13 - 22 17 5 2 16 12 3 21 20 1
6% 4% 10% 4% 5% 5% 7% 5% 6% 18% 5% 5% - 8% 8% 9% 4% 5% 5% 5% 8% 9% 4%
bd M M M M m

DO NOT KNOW 9 - 6 1 3 2 5 3 9 - 2 2 - 8 8 - - 1 1 - 8 7 -
2% - 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% - 1% 1% - 3% 3% - - - - - 3% 3% 1%
b J MPQ klMPQ rsT rsT

REFUSED 6 6 - - - 3 1 2 6 - 3 3 - 1 1 - - 5 5 - 1 1 -
1% 5% - - - 1% 1% 2% 1% - 1% 1% - - - - - 2% 2% - - - -
cde J mpq mpq tw TW

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 40
Table 13-2
QUESTION 12:
And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic background?

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WHITE OR CAUCASIAN 467 39 145 315 168 146 232 169 213 236 434 393 245 208 12 287 160 12 4
78% 73% 72% 81% 85% 77% 85% 74% 74% 82% 78% 80% 82% 73% 80% 84% 71% 59% 58%
H i n QR
AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK 67 5 24 39 12 27 22 24 44 19 59 44 25 42 - 29 35 3 -
11% 10% 12% 10% 6% 14% 8% 10% 15% 7% 11% 9% 8% 15% - 8% 15% 17% -
E J O mO S PS s

HISPANIC OR LATINO 3 - 2 1 - 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 - 1 2 - -
1% - 1% - - 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 1% - - 1% - -

ASIAN OR PACIFIC ISLANDER 10 2 6 4 2 1 2 8 8 2 10 10 2 8 - 1 5 4 -
2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% - - 2% 18% -
O s Pqs

MULTI-RACIAL OR OTHER 38 7 14 23 10 13 9 19 13 23 37 28 22 15 - 18 16 1 3
6% 13% 7% 6% 5% 7% 3% 8% 5% 8% 7% 6% 7% 5% - 5% 7% 5% 42%
g O O pqr
DO NOT KNOW 9 - 7 2 1 1 2 8 8 2 9 9 2 8 - 2 7 - -
2% 1% 4% - - - 1% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% - - 3% 1% -
g O pS

REFUSED 6 - 1 5 5 - 3 - - 3 3 3 3 - 3 5 1 - -
1% - 1% 1% 3% - 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 1% - 20% 2% - - -
f f rs

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 41
Table 13-3
QUESTION 12:
And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic background?

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WHITE OR CAUCASIAN 467 467 - - - - 235 232 107 107 56 89 57 30
78% 100% - - - - 82% 74% 88% 87% 74% 73% 79% 59%
CDEF h kLN kLN n

AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK 67 - 67 - - - 23 44 4 8 8 17 11 11
11% - 100% - - - 8% 14% 3% 6% 10% 14% 15% 21%
BDEF g Ij I Ij
HISPANIC OR LATINO 3 - - 3 - - - 3 - 1 - 2 - -
1% - - 100% - - - 1% - 1% - 2% - -
BCEF

ASIAN OR PACIFIC ISLANDER 10 - - - 10 - 5 5 - - 5 1 1 2
2% - - - 100% - 2% 2% - - 6% 1% 1% 5%
BCDF ij

MULTI-RACIAL OR OTHER 38 - - - - 38 14 24 7 6 4 10 2 5
6% - - - - 100% 5% 8% 5% 5% 5% 8% 3% 9%
BCDE
DO NOT KNOW 9 - - - - - 4 5 1 1 4 1 - 3
2% - - - - - 2% 2% 1% 1% 5% 1% - 6%

REFUSED 6 - - - - - 5 1 3 - - 1 2 -
1% - - - - - 2% - 3% - - 1% 3% -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 42
Table 14-1
QUESTION 13:
County

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

ST LOUIS 110 26 41 16 27 37 37 30 105 5 41 35 6 63 48 16 6 52 34 18 53 47 6
18% 19% 22% 14% 16% 15% 19% 24% 18% 23% 16% 15% 22% 22% 22% 26% 11% 15% 13% 23% 21% 21% 22%
kl s s

ST CHARLES 43 11 11 5 16 20 9 6 39 5 19 18 1 20 16 4 4 23 20 3 20 16 4
7% 8% 6% 4% 10% 8% 5% 5% 7% 19% 7% 7% 4% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 4% 8% 7% 14%
d

JACKSON 33 2 18 10 3 10 13 9 32 2 12 11 1 17 12 5 4 15 14 2 17 15 2
6% 1% 10% 9% 2% 4% 6% 7% 5% 7% 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 9% 7% 5% 5% 3% 7% 7% 6%
BE BE
GREENE 30 8 9 2 11 15 10 4 30 - 14 14 - 15 11 4 - 17 13 4 13 11 2
5% 6% 5% 2% 7% 6% 5% 3% 5% 1% 5% 6% 1% 5% 5% 6% - 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 9%
d j MQ MQ mQ mQ

KANSAS CITY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ST LOUIS CITY 30 11 3 6 10 4 22 2 28 2 7 6 1 23 21 2 - 7 5 3 22 21 2
5% 8% 2% 5% 6% 2% 11% 2% 5% 6% 3% 3% 4% 8% 9% 3% - 2% 2% 3% 9% 9% 7%
c FH Q Q KLQ KLpQ RS RS

CLAY 23 4 11 3 6 10 9 4 23 - 12 12 - 11 8 3 - 12 9 3 11 10 1
4% 3% 6% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% - 5% 5% - 4% 3% 5% - 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3%
J MQ MQ MQ MQ

JEFFERSON 23 3 8 7 5 15 5 3 23 - 12 10 2 12 9 2 - 13 10 3 11 11 -
4% 2% 4% 6% 3% 6% 3% 3% 4% - 4% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4% - 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% -
J Q Q Q Q W W W W

BOONE 17 5 4 2 6 5 10 2 16 1 5 5 - 10 10 1 2 6 3 3 10 10 1
3% 4% 2% 1% 4% 2% 5% 1% 3% 4% 2% 2% - 4% 4% 1% 3% 2% 1% 4% 4% 4% 3%
h M M M M

REST OF STATE 290 66 78 63 83 128 81 62 280 10 141 125 16 111 87 24 35 189 151 37 97 87 11
48% 48% 43% 56% 50% 53% 41% 50% 49% 40% 53% 53% 59% 39% 39% 40% 70% 56% 58% 50% 38% 38% 37%
c G NO NO NO NOP UVw UVw

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 43
Table 14-2
QUESTION 13:
County

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

ST LOUIS 110 13 42 65 35 30 45 48 59 50 103 93 45 64 1 55 47 5 2
18% 24% 21% 17% 18% 16% 16% 21% 20% 17% 19% 19% 15% 23% 8% 16% 21% 23% 32%
m
ST CHARLES 43 9 11 33 11 22 24 13 17 21 38 34 28 14 2 28 14 1 -
7% 17% 5% 8% 5% 12% 9% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 9% 5% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4%
e n

JACKSON 33 3 14 19 13 6 11 18 18 16 33 29 14 18 1 12 18 - 2
6% 7% 7% 5% 7% 3% 4% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 3% 8% 2% 29%
p

GREENE 30 2 10 19 8 11 15 12 14 15 29 27 15 14 - 17 12 1 -
5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 1% 5% 5% 4% -
S S
KANSAS CITY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ST LOUIS CITY 30 5 18 12 5 7 7 15 24 5 26 22 7 23 - 6 22 1 1
5% 9% 9% 3% 2% 4% 3% 7% 8% 2% 5% 5% 2% 8% - 2% 10% 3% 9%
g J O MO P

CLAY 23 1 9 14 7 7 12 8 10 12 21 21 12 11 - 12 9 2 -
4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% - 4% 4% 11% -
O O S S

JEFFERSON 23 2 9 15 10 5 13 11 14 9 23 23 12 12 - 14 8 2 -
4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% 5% 5% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% - 4% 3% 11% -
O O S S

BOONE 17 - 10 6 4 2 4 11 11 4 15 14 6 11 - 6 9 1 1
3% - 5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 5% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 4% - 2% 4% 3% 13%
B g O O

REST OF STATE 290 17 76 206 105 100 141 93 121 155 268 229 160 116 12 192 88 8 1
48% 32% 38% 53% 53% 53% 52% 41% 42% 54% 48% 47% 53% 41% 75% 56% 39% 39% 13%
H I N N QS s

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 44
Table 14-3
QUESTION 13:
County

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

ST LOUIS 110 82 11 1 7 8 54 56 22 16 17 21 12 18
18% 18% 17% 30% 72% 22% 19% 18% 18% 13% 22% 17% 16% 36%
BCF iJLm

ST CHARLES 43 33 3 - - 4 17 26 9 12 4 5 3 3
7% 7% 4% - - 11% 6% 8% 7% 9% 5% 4% 5% 5%
DE
JACKSON 33 23 4 - - 3 16 18 7 3 2 11 5 4
6% 5% 5% - - 9% 5% 6% 6% 2% 2% 9% 7% 8%
DE Jk

GREENE 30 29 1 - - 1 10 20 5 10 2 8 4 1
5% 6% 1% - - 2% 4% 6% 4% 8% 2% 7% 5% 1%
CDE kN n

KANSAS CITY - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ST LOUIS CITY 30 16 14 - - 1 13 17 - 3 11 11 2 1
5% 3% 21% - - 1% 4% 6% - 3% 14% 9% 2% 2%
DE BDEF IJMN IjmN

CLAY 23 20 1 2 - - 9 14 4 6 1 9 4 -
4% 4% 2% 69% - - 3% 5% 3% 5% 1% 7% 6% -
EF BCEF N KN n

JEFFERSON 23 23 - - - - 15 8 11 4 2 4 3 -
4% 5% - - - - 5% 3% 9% 3% 2% 3% 4% -
CDEF kN n n

BOONE 17 10 1 - 3 3 10 7 3 2 6 5 2 -
3% 2% 1% - 28% 8% 3% 2% 2% 2% 8% 4% 2% -
D n n

REST OF STATE 290 231 33 - - 18 142 148 62 66 33 48 37 25
48% 49% 49% 1% - 47% 50% 47% 51% 54% 43% 40% 52% 48%
DE DE DE L

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 45
Table 15-1
QUESTION 14:
Gender

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

MALE 287 64 85 64 73 121 76 72 275 12 141 127 14 119 96 23 23 176 131 45 105 96 9
48% 47% 46% 57% 44% 50% 38% 59% 48% 49% 53% 54% 52% 42% 43% 39% 46% 53% 51% 60% 41% 42% 31%
e G G No No UVW uw UvW

FEMALE 313 72 99 49 93 122 121 51 301 12 123 110 13 163 126 37 27 158 128 30 151 131 20
52% 53% 54% 43% 56% 50% 62% 41% 52% 51% 47% 46% 48% 58% 57% 61% 54% 47% 49% 40% 59% 58% 69%
d FH KL kl RsT Rt RsT

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 46
Table 15-2
QUESTION 14:
Gender

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

MALE 287 22 82 199 199 - 145 103 124 154 266 244 150 123 12 181 91 10 4
48% 42% 41% 51% 100% - 53% 45% 43% 54% 48% 50% 50% 44% 75% 53% 40% 47% 56%
F DF I mN Q
FEMALE 313 31 118 190 - 190 127 126 164 133 290 248 149 160 4 163 135 11 3
52% 58% 59% 49% - 100% 47% 55% 57% 46% 52% 50% 50% 56% 25% 47% 60% 53% 44%
E DE J o O P

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 47
Table 15-3
QUESTION 14:
Gender

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

MALE 287 235 23 - 5 14 287 - 121 - 76 - 72 -
48% 50% 35% 1% 51% 37% 100% - 100% - 100% - 100% -
cD D d D H JLN JLN JLN

FEMALE 313 232 44 3 5 24 - 313 - 122 - 121 - 51
52% 50% 65% 99% 49% 63% - 100% - 100% - 100% - 100%
b BCeF G IKM IKM IKM

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 48
Table 16-1
QUESTION CELLPHONE:

BANNER 1
VOTE
AGE PARTY LIKELIHOOD GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP APPROVAL
======================= ================= ============= ========================================= ===================================
TOTAL STRG SMWT
VERY SMWT TOTAL DEF PROB TOTAL DEF PROB UNDE- TOTAL STRG SMWT DIS- DIS- DIS-
TOTAL 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ REP DEM IND LIKELY LIKELY REP REP REP DEM DEM DEM CIDED APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV APPRV
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W)
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 137 183 113 167 243 197 123 576 24 264 237 27 282 222 60 51 335 260 75 256 227 28
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

CELL 180 41 55 34 50 73 59 41 172 8 79 67 13 85 66 19 13 98 74 23 82 67 15
30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 34% 30% 35% 30% 28% 46% 30% 30% 31% 25% 29% 29% 31% 32% 29% 53%
kl RSuV
LANDLINE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E, F/G/H, I/J, K/L/M/N/O/P/Q, R/S/T/U/V/W
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 49
Table 16-2
QUESTION CELLPHONE:

BANNER 2
LIKE MCCASKILL HAWLEY/
SOME TRUMP TRUMP SUPPORTER HAWLEY IMAGE IMAGE MCCASKILL BALLOT 2016 VOTE
============= ==================== ============= ============= ============= ==================== ============================
HRD OPIN MCCA- UNDE- DIDN'T
TOTAL AGREE DISAG TOTAL MEN WOMEN FAV UNFAV FAV UNFAV BOTH BOTH HAWLEY SKILL CIDED TRUMP CLINTON OTHER VOTE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 53 200 388 199 190 272 229 289 287 556 492 299 283 15 344 226 20 6
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

CELL 180 28 52 125 64 61 68 66 77 86 152 130 90 85 4 103 68 4 2
30% 52% 26% 32% 32% 32% 25% 29% 27% 30% 27% 26% 30% 30% 26% 30% 30% 18% 33%
C

LANDLINE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C, D/E/F, G/H, I/J, K/L, M/N/O, P/Q/R/S
Citizens United Political Victory Fund Congressional Poll – MO Senate
October 2018 PAGE 50
Table 16-3
QUESTION CELLPHONE:

BANNER 3
RACE GENDER PARTY/GENDER
================================== ============= =========================================
REP REP DEM DEM IND IND
TOTAL WHITE BLACK HISP ASIAN OTHER MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N)
----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE 600 467 67 3 10 38 287 313 121 122 76 121 72 51
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

CELL 180 140 20 1 3 10 86 94 39 34 21 38 25 16
30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 25% 30% 30% 32% 28% 27% 32% 35% 32%

LANDLINE - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

IN UPPERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 95% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERCASE SIGNIFICANT TEST AT THE 90% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
COLUMNS TESTED: B/C/D/E/F, G/H, I/J/K/L/M/N