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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL OCTOBER 17th, 2018 - 6 AM EST

Toronto
• Three Wards To Watch
17th October 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of three surveys conducted in the wards of three levels of government, President and CEO
Etobicoke Centre, Toronto-Danforth, and York Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
Centre that were conducted between October international public affairs.
14th and 15th among residents of these wards,
aged 18 years of age or older. The survey Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
was conducted using automated telephone Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
interviewed on both landlines and cellular a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
phones. was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
The sampling frame was derived from both federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
a national telephone directory compiled predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
by Mainstreet Research from various elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
commerically available sources and random special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
digit dialing. a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Canadian publication standards.
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party. CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
The margin of error and sample size for each Quito Maggi, President
survey is as follows: quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
Etobicoke Centre: n=595, +/- 4%
Toronto-Danforth: n=626 +/- 3.9% In Toronto:
York Centre: n=615, +/- 3.93% Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TIGHT RACES IN YORK CENTRE AND ETOBICOKE CENTRE, FLETCHER WITH SIGNIFICANT
LEAD IN TORONTO-DANFORTH

17 October 2018 (Toronto, ON) – John Campbell and Stephen Holyday are in a statistical tie
in the council race in Etobicoke Centre, as are Maria Augimeri and James Pasternak in the
York Centre race.

Those are the third set of findings of a series of new Mainstreet Research surveys of Toronto
wards in the lead up to the October 22nd election. The polls were conducted on October
14th and 15th.

“The ward races are the ones to be looking at on election night,” said Quito Maggi, President
and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Both Augimeri’s lead over Pasternak and Campbell’s
edge over Holyday are within the margin of error, and like many other council races, are
both too close to call.”

Campbell leads Holyday by 2.1%, while Augimeri has a 3% lead over Pasternak.

“The mayoral race has not proved to be interesting at least in terms of horserace numbers,
but it looks like all the action on election night will be in the wards,” continued Maggi. “Six of
the ten races we have polled in the last week will come down to the wire in our estimation.”

Finally, in a battle of progressive incumbents in Toronto-Danforth, Paula Fletcher leads
Maria Fragadakis by 14.3% among decided voters.

“The surprise here is that this is one race where an incumbent is significantly behind another
incumbent,” concluded Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters All Voters Decided
Etobicoke CentreVoters

3.2% 3.2% 2.6% 4.9%

26.4% 26.4%
34.9% 34.9%

38.6%

All Voters All Voters Decided Voters 40.7%

8.5% 8.5%
1.7% 1.7%

25.3% 25.3% 13.2%

Bill Boersma John Campbell Bill Boersma
Angelo Carnevale John Campbell AngeloBill
Carnevale
Boersma John Campbell Angelo Carnevale

Stephen Holyday Erica Kelly Stephen Holyday
Undecided Erica Kelly Undecided Stephen Holyday Erica Kelly

All Voters All Voters Decided Voters
Toronto-Danforth
10.3% 10.3% 11.6% 12.2%
13.7% 13.7%

9.8% 9.8%
11%
10.1% 10.1%

25.4%
All Voters All Voters Decided Voters

22.1% 22.1%
33.9% 33.9%

39.7%

Chris Budo Lanrick Bennett Chris
Paula Budo
Fletcher Lanrick
Mary Bennett
Fragedakis Paula Fletcher
Chris Budo Mary Fragedakis
Lanrick Bennett Paula Fletcher Mary Fragedakis

Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for
if an election were held today?
All Voters
York Centre

31.7%
33.6%

All Voters

1.5%
3.8%

Decided Voters
29.4%

2.3%
All Voters 5.3%
Maria Augimeri James Pasternak Louise Russo

Edward Zaretsky Undecided

31.7%
33.6%
47.7%
Decided Voters

44.7%
All Voters

1.5%
3.8%

29.4%

Maria Augimeri James Pasternak Louise Russo
Maria Augimeri James Pasternak Louise Russo
Edward Zaretsky Undecided
Edward Zaretsky
Breakouts
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election
were held today?
Etobicoke Centre
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Bill Boersma 3.2% 1.3% 5% 6.8% - 2.5% 2.1%
John Campbell 26.4% 32.2% 21% 29.2% 22.9% 23.7% 29.8%
Angelo Carnevale 8.5% 10.5% 6.7% 7.3% 8.4% 11.6% 6.8%
Stephen Holyday 25.3% 20.2% 30% 21% 20.7% 28.8% 34.4%
Erica Kelly 1.7% 1.2% 2.2% - 2% 2.4% 3.3%
Undecided 34.9% 34.7% 35% 35.6% 45.9% 31% 23.6%
Unweighted Frequency 595 217 378 14 48 164 369
Weighted Frequency 595 286 309 192 149 145 109

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Bill Boersma 4.9% 1.8% 7.6% 10.7% - 3.6% 2.8%
John Campbell 40.7% 49.8% 32.3% 45.3% 42.3% 34.3% 39%
Angelo Carnevale 13.2% 16.4% 10.3% 11.3% 15.5% 16.8% 8.9%
Stephen Holyday 38.6% 30.3% 46.2% 32.7% 38.4% 41.7% 45.1%
Erica Kelly 2.6% 1.6% 3.5% - 3.8% 3.5% 4.3%
Unweighted Frequency 430 153 277 9 26 113 282
Weighted Frequency 430 207 223 139 108 105 79

Toronto-Danforth
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Chris Budo 10.3% 10.4% 10.2% 7.3% 10.6% 12.8% 12%
Lanrick Bennett 9.8% 10.7% 9.1% 17.5% 8.9% 3% 6.4%
Paula Fletcher 33.9% 40.1% 28.4% 27.7% 41.6% 34.9% 33.4%
Mary Fragedakis 22.1% 22.8% 21.5% 27.7% 13.9% 22.5% 22.7%
Another Candidate 10.1% 5% 14.6% 14.6% 6.7% 8.2% 9%
Undecided 13.7% 11% 16.2% 5.1% 18.2% 18.6% 16.5%
Unweighted Frequency 406 199 207 17 157 157 176
Weighted Frequency 406 191 215 132 97 97 76

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Chris Budo 12.2% 12.4% 12% 7.9% 12.7% 15.7% 14.3%
Lanrick Bennett 11% 11.6% 10.6% 18.4% 10.9% 3.8% 7.7%
Paula Fletcher 39.7% 45.4% 34.7% 28.9% 50.9% 42.7% 39.9%
Mary Fragedakis 25.4% 24.8% 26% 28.9% 17.3% 27.7% 27.3%
Another Candidate 11.6% 5.9% 16.7% 15.9% 8.2% 10.1% 10.9%
Unweighted Frequency 338 170 168 16 47 128 147
Weighted Frequency 338 159 179 110 84 81 63
York Centre
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Maria Augimeri 31.7% 38.9% 25.3% 33% 39.9% 25.4% 26.7%
James Pasternak 29.4% 32.2% 27% 28.6% 28.8% 31.7% 28.7%
Louise Russo 3.8% 4.1% 3.5% - - 10.8% 6.3%
Edward Zaretsky 1.5% 0.8% 2.2% - - 4.4% 2.5%
Undecided 33.6% 24.1% 42.1% 31.2% 31.2% 27.8% 35.9%
Unweighted Frequency 626 258 368 50 62 172 342
Weighted Frequency 626 295 331 204 155 150 117

(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Maria Augimeri 47.7% 51.9% 44% 53.2% 56.5% 35.7% 42%
James Pasternak 44.7% 42.4% 46.8% 46.8% 43.5% 43.4% 44.4%
Louise Russo 5.3% 4.8% 5.7% - - 14.2% 10.2%
Edward Zaretsky 2.3% 1% 3.4% - - 6.7% 3.5%
Unweighted Frequency 416 176 240 30 42 124 220
Weighted Frequency 416 196 220 136 103 99 78
Questionnaire
On October 22 2018, you (York Centre- first four
will have a chance to vote responses randomized)
in your municipal election. Maria Augimeri
Which candidate for City James Pasternak
Council would you vote, or Louise Russo
are leaning towards voting Edward Zaretsky
for, for if an election were Undecided
held today?
(Etobicoke Centre - first five What is your gender?
responses randomized) Male
Bill Boersma Female
John Campbell
Angelo Carnevale What is your age group?
Stephen Holyday 18 to 34 years of age
Erica Kelly 35 to 49 years of age
Undecided 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
(Toronto-Danforth - first six
responses randomized)
Lanrick Bennett
Chris Budo
Dixon Chan
Marisol D’Andrea
Paula Fletcher
Mary Fragedakis
Ryan Lindsay
Another Candidate
Undecided
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of three surveys conducted in the wards of
Etobicoke Centre, Toronto-Danforth, and York Centre that were conducted between October
14th and 15th among residents of these wards, aged 18 years of age or older that were
conducted between October 10th and 11th among residents of these wards, aged 18 years of
age or older. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of the three wards surveyed.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error at the 95% confidence level and sample size for each survey is as follows:
Etobicoke Centre: n=595, +/- 4%, Toronto-Danforth: n=626 +/- 3.9%, York Centre: n=615, +/-
3.93%. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. Wherever a candidate received less than 1.5%,
his or her estimates were folded into the “another candidate” column.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.