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ScienceDirect

Procedia Computer Science 103 (2017) 483 – 488

XIIth International Symposium «Intelligent Systems», INTELS’16, 5-7 October 2016, Moscow,

Russia

N. Gabdrakhmanovaa,*, A. Gabdrakhmanovb

a

RUDN University. 6, Mikluho-Maklaya str., Moscow, 117198, Russia

b

TransTelecom Private Corp.

Abstract

The paper presents the results of building neural network predictive models of the occupancy of the channel packet data. The

problem is solved by the example of time series observations of the intensities at the commutator switch port. The above

algorithm for constructing a neural network model based on the determination of the fractal dimension of the time series. The

autoregressive model is constructed as a parallel model. The developed models are compared in accordance with the rated value

of entered criteria for assessing the accuracy of the forecast.

© 2017The

© 2017 TheAuthors.

Authors.Published

Publishedby by Elsevier

Elsevier B.V.B.V.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

under responsibility of the scientific committee of the XIIth International Symposium «Intelligent Systems».

(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Peer-review

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the XIIth International Symposium “Intelligent Systems”

Keywords: neural network; network traffic; time series; correlation integral.

1. Introduction

The purpose of the research is to obtain valid conclusions on the approach to the construction of a mathematical

model in the considered applied area. The relevance of the work is defined as follows. The existence of a large

number of diverse services in one physical channel during the highest load hours can lead to an overload of

commutation and routing devices on the network backbone which can lead to a massive failure of the range of

services. To prevent situations leading to failure of the network backbone equipment and to optimize the use of

network resources, the proper use of the broadband of the data-transmission circuit becomes the most important

task. It is essential to use rational effective methods of traffic management and occupancy control, which would be

* Corresponding author.

E-mail address: gabd-nelli@yandex.ru

1877-0509 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the XIIth International Symposium “Intelligent Systems”

doi:10.1016/j.procs.2017.01.031

484 N. Gabdrakhmanova and A. Gabdrakhmanov / Procedia Computer Science 103 (2017) 483 – 488

based on the data provided, for example, by an instrument of forecasting traffic intensities on the previous values

basis. There are different approaches to solve this problem 1,2. The authors propose an unconventional approach to

the solution by using the field data.

A commutator switch of the 2nd level organization focused on providing the main line services was taken as an

example for a research. Traffic arriving at each port of the device, is a summarized traffic from groups of clients

from a specified area. Figure 1 shows the schema of the study measurement. Statistics was prepared using Cacti

software, SNMP-Interface statistic protocol. The information about the occupancy level of the network is more

useful for practical purposes. The information about the packet count per unit time can be misleading. Therefore, as

an observable variable the aggregated value x (t) – traffic intensity (bit) at the moment t is chosen. Duration time of

data is 10080 points, or 7 days.

Figure 2 shows the intensities graph measured at the GE 0 port. Each point on the graph represents the number of

data bit transmitted on the network backbone channel in a time interval of 1 minute.

N

1

, where N – amount of observation points, to

solve the problem of identification of the timing series and to build the forecast for m anticipation steps.

N. Gabdrakhmanova and A. Gabdrakhmanov / Procedia Computer Science 103 (2017) 483 – 488 485

^ x t `t

N

Neural network model is developed using nonlinear dynamics methods. It is believed that 1

measurements of some observational scalar components d1-dimensional dynamical system y . Here, the

dimensionality and the behavior of the dynamic system all in all are unknown. For a given time series it is necessary

to construct a model that would drink in the considered dynamics responsible for generating experimental

observation x (t).

According to Takens theorem3, the geometric structure of the system dynamics, which depends on many

variables, can be retrieved based on experimental observation ^ x t `t

N

1

in D-dimensional space constructed on the

basis of a new vector

^ x t , x t 1 ,}, x t D 1 `

T

z t ,

where D t 2 d1 1 . Evolution of the points z t o z t 1 in the reconstructed space corresponds to the evolution

of the points y t o y t 1 in the original space. The search procedure of a suitable D is called embedding. The

minimum number D, at which the dynamic recovery is achieved, is called measurement of embeddings. In this

research the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm was used, which allows to estimate by the time series the fractal

dimension d fc of a strange attractor of the dynamical system. The search algorithm described by the following

steps. Suppose, the m1-dimensional reconstruction is constructed through the time series, and a set of vectors

z t ( x t , x t 1 , } , x t m1 1 is at the disposal of researchers. A number G is set and an interval of a

phase space is divided into cubes with a G side. For selected m1 and G correlation integral is calculated3:

N § 1 N ·

¦ ¦

1

C G lim ¨ T (G z n z k ) ¸ ,

N of N ¨ N 1 ¸

n 1© k 1, k z n ¹

where T r ^1,0, rr ! 00

T - Heaviside step function,

- no matter which norm (Euclidean norm in our case),

N - number of points.

C G - is a measure of the probability that two points z n and z k on the attractor are spaced on the

distance G . Number N should be sufficiently large.

With small G correlation integral is C G ~ G d k , that is why the correlation dimensionality d fc can be defined

by obliquity of the correspondence lnC G from lnG . In other words, the correlation dimensionality d fc can be

defined as

lnC G

d fc m lim .

G o0 lnG

With the growth of embedding m1 the correlation dimensionality d fc m increases. If in this time series there is

a demonstration of a determinate chaos, then, starting with any m1=m0, the value of the relevant d fc m1 stops

growing. The reached value is taken as the attractor’s dimensionality of an initial system d f d fc ( m0 ) . If the

486 N. Gabdrakhmanova and A. Gabdrakhmanov / Procedia Computer Science 103 (2017) 483 – 488

growth continues without saturation, this indicates that the considered signal is a noise signal. The final value d fc

means that the considered signal can be recreated with help of a determinate system. Figure 3 shows the dependency

graph of correlation dimensionality from embedding dimensionality for the row. In the graph X-axis single out

values of embedding m1 on Y-axis – value of correlation dimensionality d fC . The found contour shows that fractal

dimension of a time series of measurement values equal 4,53, it follows that embedding dimension for dynamic

system recoveries is D 2 ª¬ d f º¼ 1 11 .

Fig. 3. Correspondence of correlation dimensionality from embedding dimension for the row

^ x t `t

N

The following problem can be formulated in the following manner. There is a timing series 1

^ x t , x t 1 ,}, x t D 1 `

T

reconstruction parameters are set (in this case D=11). For N1 vectors z t the

values of required function are known: F t F z t (as it is known that next to z (t ) are elements of time series).

It is required to find the value of the required function in the new point z (t ) F z . Otherwise, it is required to

approximate the required function F on the given N1 points.

Artificial neural networks (NN) solve the problem of approximation of functions of more than one variable

according to the learning sample by dipping time series in the multidimensional space. To increase the accuracy of

forecasting of NN models it is proposed to use a dual level algorithm of model’s constructing. The problem of

constructing in the reconstructed space of the subdomains is solved on the first level, where it is possible to

construct a low-mode model. For this purpose, a multitude clustering method ^ z t `t

N1

1

is used. The construction of

local NN models in each sub domain occurs on the second level. For this example, two clusters are designed. For

each cluster NN models are developed. The neural network type is a multilayer perceptron. When learning by back

propagation, the NN weight number is found by minimizing the functional 4:

R w E s w P Ec w ,

where E s w - standard measure of neural network eff (mean square error), Ec w – penalty for complexity, P –

regularization parameter. By way of example,

1 wk

2 ³ wx

E c w, k Fnc x , w M x dx ,

2

k

N. Gabdrakhmanova and A. Gabdrakhmanov / Procedia Computer Science 103 (2017) 483 – 488 487

M x – any function weighting, which defines the zone of input space where Fnc x , w should be differentiable.

For constructed models on a test variety are calculated using formulas: modulus average value of the relative

error of a forecast

N

x t xˆ t

N¦

1

MSE , (1)

t 1

x t

x t xˆ t

MaxE m ax , (2)

t x t

x t xˆ t

MinE min , (3)

t x t

The entered values criteria for constructed model: MSE= 0,011; MaxE=0,573; MinE=0,087.

Figure 4 shows the graph of collating of the forecasted data (in Output) with the field studies data (in). On the

graph singled out on the X-axis - the number of point, on the Y-axis – the standardized value of the traffic intensity.

Fig. 4. The graph of forecasted data (in Output) with the field studies data (in).

Table 1 shows the actual values x t , model of forecasted value x̂ t , model of a relative error of the forecast

x t xˆ t

H t .

x t

As a parallel model, using the same data, autoregressive scheme was constructed. The comparation of calculated

values of the set criteria (1-3) for the estimation of the model’s forecasted properties indicates that the NN is the

most suitable for solving this problem.

488 N. Gabdrakhmanova and A. Gabdrakhmanov / Procedia Computer Science 103 (2017) 483 – 488

Table1. Fragments of the comparation of real and model indicator values on the test multiplicity

x t 10 xˆ t 10 H t 10

7 7 2

t

5,02 1,82 1,70 6,51

5,03 1,75 1,72 1,86

5,04 1,69 1,70 1,05

5,05 1,77 1,69 4,13

5,06 1,81 1,70 5,91

5,07 1,70 1,71 0,736

5,08 1,65 1,70 2,64

5,1 1,72 1,68 2,48

3. Conclusions

1. A statistical analysis of the actual data of the functioning network was carried out.

2. Based on analysis of time series as an observational nonlinear dynamical system the argumentation and

construction of neural network forecast model was carried out.

3. Positive results on network traffic forecasting by applying autoregressive scheme and NN models which can be

used for an efficient management and resource optimizing in the network functioning process were deduced.

4. Comparation of the forecasting results with models different approaches demonstrate the advantages of

dynamical approach when modeling with neural network technology. The conclusion is based on the basis of

calculations and comparation of the entered criteria values.

References

1. Heyman DP, Tabatabai A, Lakshman TV. Statistical analysis and simulation study of video teleconference traffic in ATM network s. IEEE

Transactions on Circuits and Systems for Video Technology 1992; 2, p.49-59.

2. Zhani MF, Elbiaze H. Analysis and Prediction of Real Network Traffic. Journal of Networks 2009; 4(9).

3. Potapov AB. Time-series analysis: when dynamical algorithms can be used. Proc. 5 Int. Specialist Workshop Nonlinear Dynamics of

Electronic Systems. June 26-27,1997; p. 388-393.

4. Haykin S. Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation Second Edition 2006.

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