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Weekly Mcx 18 Oct – 26 Oct 2018

Newsletter
HIGHLIGHT INVESTMENT RESEARCH
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INSIDE THIS ISSUE Commodity Overview
1. Commodity Overview
2. Precious metal
Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of
3. Base metals the New York Mercantile Exchange slipped 0.08% at $1,226.4 a
troy ounce by 1:19 AM ET (05:19 GMT).
4. Energy
5. Our recommendations The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a
basket of other currencies inched up 0.06% to 95.41 on
6. Disclaimer Thursday and hit a fresh one-week high.

Gold Prices Slip; Dollar Firms as FOMC Meeting Minutes
Point to More Rate Hikes

The most-traded November Zinc contract on the SHFE
recorded at 22,560 per tonne, up 175 yuan per tonne from
Wednesday’s close.

Nickel was the worst performer among the base metals this
morning, with the metal’s most-traded January contract on
the SHFE falling to 101,660 yuan ($14,677) per tonne as at
11.16am Shanghai time, down by 1,480 yuan per tonne from
Wednesday’s close.
Oil Trades Below $70 as Stockpile Gain Counters U.S.-Saudi
Row
West Texas Intermediate for November delivery traded 8
cents higher at $69.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange at 12:23 p.m. in Singapore. The contract declined
$2.17 to $69.75 on Wednesday. Total volume traded was
about 9 percent below the 100-day average.
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Precious Metals
Gold prices slipped while the dollar gained on Thursday after the minutes from the latest Federal Open
Market Committee meeting reinforced expectations of a tighter U.S monetary policy.
Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slipped
0.08% at $1,226.4 a troy ounce by 1:19 AM ET (05:19 GMT).

"Gold is closely tracking both the U.S. dollar and equities, more so the dollar," said Peter Fung, head of
dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong.
The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.06% to 95.41
on Thursday and hit a fresh one-week high.

Gold prices edged lower as the US Dollar rose while the priced-in 2019 rate hike path implied in Fed Funds
futures steepened. That reflected a hawkish tone in minutes from September’s FOMC meeting. Officials were
unanimous in their support for gradual tightening and some signaled that rates may need to rise beyond the
“long-run” level, implying that policy might need to become pro-actively restrictive.

Support and Resistance Our Recommendations
Column1 Column2 SCRIPT POSITION LEVEL TARGET1 TARGET2 TARGET3 STOPLOSS
GOLD SILVER GOLD SELL 31960 31720 31560 31270 32310
RESISTANCE2:32320 RESISTANCE2:39400 SIVLER SELL 39280 39050 38840 38360 39510
RESISTANCE1:32040 RESISTANCE1:39040
SUPPORT1: 31680 SUPPORT1: 38730
SUPPORT2: 31270 SUPPORT2: 38320
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The broad-based weakness in the base metals follows a rebound in the dollar after the minutes from the
US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting implied a further interest rate rise in
December.
FOMC minutes revealed a number of officials want to push above neutral in order to minimize the risk of
inflation running above 2% and ‘significant financial imbalance. The FOMC minutes implied a high
possibility of a fourth interest rate increase this year in December, which caused the dollar to strengthen
and in turn put downward pressure on base metals prices.
The dollar index stood at 95.66 as at 10.17am Shanghai time, up from 95.12 at roughly the same on
Wednesday.
Nickel was the worst performer among the base metals this morning, with the metal’s most-traded
January contract on the SHFE falling to 101,660 yuan ($14,677) per tonne as at 11.16am Shanghai time,
down by 1,480 yuan per tonne from Wednesday’s close.
The most-traded November Zinc contract on the SHFE recorded at 22,560 per tonne, up 175 yuan per
tonne from Wednesday’s close.
Support and Resistance

Column1 Column2 Our Recommendations
ZINC NICKEL SCRIPT POSITION LEVEL TARGET1 TARGET2 TARGET3 STOPLOSS
RESISTANCE2: 203.40 RESISTANCE2:924.40 ZINC BUY 195.60 198.40 201.20 204.80 190.40
RESISTANCE1: 200.70 RESISTANCE1:947.00 NICKEL SELL 917.00 902.60 892.00 872.00 947.00
SUPPORT1: 193.50 SUPPORT1: 901.20
SUPPORT2: 190.20 SUPPORT2: 885.60
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Energy
Oil inched up on Thursday amid ongoing tensions over the death of a prominent Saudi journalist, with prices
steadying after a big drop overnight due to a jump in U.S. crude stockpiles.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery was up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $69.87 a barrel by
0413 GMT, after falling 3 percent in the previous session to settle below $70 for the first time in a month.
Front-month London Brent crude for December delivery was up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $80.18, having ended
down 1.7 percent.
Inventories rose sharply even as U.S. crude production slipped 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.9 million bpd
last week due to the effects of offshore facilities closing temporarily for Hurricane Michael.
U.S. lawmakers pointed the finger at the Saudi leadership over the disappearance of prominent Saudi critic and
journalist Jamal Khashoggi, suggesting sanctions could be possible.
Saudi Arabia denies that it had any role in Khashoggi's disappearance.
Natural gas markets continue to go sideways as we are trying to digest the gains that we had recently
seen. The explosive move to the upside was very important, as it was in the usual manner at the end of
the year. The $3.20 level is the beginning of significant support down to the $3.15 level below, and I
think that any dip towards that area is probably short term buying opportunity.
Support and Resistance

Column1 Our Recommendations
CRUDE OIL
RESISTANCE2: 5340 SCRIPT POSITION LEVEL TARGET1 TARGET2 TARGET3 STOPLOSS
RESISTANCE1: 5207 CRUDE SELL 5195 5130 5055 4967 5310
SUPPORT1: 5120
SUPPORT2: 5024
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