Earthquakes and Seismic Hazard

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Earthquakes and Seismic Hazard

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SEISMIC HAZARD

Politecnico di Milano

Lecco 01-03-2018

WHAT IS AN EARTHQUAKE?

ü plates movement

ü crust deformation

ü rupture

ü waves propagation

EARTH STRUCTURE

(USGS)

TECTONIC PLATES

TECTONIC PLATES THEORY

http://www.google.it/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CEUQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fearthquake.usgs.gov%2Flearn%2Fplate-

boundaries.kmz&ei=L5IJVaj6MMfaaO6xglA&usg=AFQjCNG4JkSNNEaVvdvHSyQL2oOraP6Slw&cad=rja

EARTHQUAKES 1990-2005

https://ingvterremoti.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/earthquakes-mondo.gif

“RING OF FIRE”

Long horseshoe-shaped

seismically active belt of

earthquake epicenters,

volcanoes, and tectonic

plate boundaries that

fringes the Pacific basin

TECTONIC PLATES THEORY: PLATE BOUNDARIES

Divergent boundaries

Divergent boundaries occur along spreading centers where

plates are moving apart and new crust is created by magma

pushing up from the mantle.

TECTONIC PLATES THEORY: PLATE BOUNDARIES

Convergent boundaries

Continental vs. Continental

Plates are moving toward each other, and

sometimes one plate sinks (is subducted)

under another. The location where sinking

of a plate occurs is called a subduction

zone.

The type of convergence that takes place

between plates depends on the kind of

lithosphere involved.

Continental vs. oceanic Oceanic vs. oceanic

TECTONIC PLATES THEORY: PLATE BOUNDARIES

Transform boundaries

destroyed as the plates slide

horizontally past each other.

found on the ocean floor

FAULTS

forces cause relative displacements of the rocks

Faults classification

together.

For example, along California's San Andreas strike-slip fault system, about 95%

of the movement is strike-slip, but about 5% of the movement is reverse faulting

in some areas (source: USGS)

Active faults

known in the

central Italy area

affected by the

2016 august

earthquake

FOCUS AND EPICENTER

The point on the Earth's surface directly above the focus is the epicenter

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/10m.html

HOW TO MEASURE THE EARTHQUAKES

constructions and natural environment

spectra, etc.) based on: accelerometric records

INTENSITY: MACROSEISMIC SCALES

§ MSK scale (Medveedev, Sponhauer, Karnik) used in Europe

§ MM scale (Modified Mercalli) used in United States

§ EMS-98 scale (European Macroseismic Scale) actually used

in Europe

§ ….

MACROSEISMIC SCALES: comparison

Macroseismic scales

Grado

Grade MCS MSK MM

I not felt - seismometers not felt - seismometers seismometers - felt (few)

II felt (many)

felt (many) felt (many) - effects on

III effect on objects

objects

IV felt (many) - effects on felt (most), effects on

objects objects and constructions

V

felt (most), effects on felt (most), effects on

VI

objects and constructions objects and constructions

VII

effects on objects,

VIII effects on objects, constructions and

constructions and environment effects on objects,

IX

environment constructions and

X

environment

XI

XII

MACROSEISMIC SCALES: EMS-98 (short form )

EMS

Definition Description of typical observed effects (abstracted)

intensity

I Not felt Not felt.

II Scarcely felt Felt only by very few individual people at rest in houses.

III Weak Felt indoors by a few people. People at rest feel a swaying or light trembling.

Felt indoors by many people, outdoors by very few. A few people are awakened. Windows, doors

IV Largely observed

and dishes rattle.

Felt indoors by most, outdoors by few. Many sleeping people awake. A few are frightened.

V Strong Buildings tremble throughout. Hanging objects swing considerably. Small objects are shifted. Doors

and windows swing open or shut.

Many people are frightened and run outdoors. Some objects fall. Many houses suffer slight non-

VI Slightly damaging

structural damage like hair-line cracks and fall of small pieces of plaster.

Most people are frightened and run outdoors. Furniture is shifted and objects fall from shelves in

large numbers. Many well built ordinary buildings suffer moderate damage: small cracks in walls,

VII Damaging

fall of plaster, parts of chimneys fall down; older buildings may show large cracks in walls and

failure of fill-in walls.

Many people find it difficult to stand. Many houses have large cracks in walls. A few well built

VIII Heavily damaging

ordinary buildings show serious failure of walls, while weak older structures may collapse.

General panic. Many weak constructions collapse. Even well built ordinary buildings show very

IX Destructive

heavy damage: serious failure of walls and partial structural failure.

X Very destructive Many ordinary well built buildings collapse.

Most ordinary well built buildings collapse, even some with good earthquake resistant design are

XI Devastating

destroyed.

Completely

XII Almost all buildings are destroyed.

devastating

INTENSITY MAPS

ISOSEISMAL MAP

DERIVED QUANTITY

Epicentral intensity

observed intensity in the area of maximum damage

Epicentral coordinates

coordinates of the center of the area of maximum

damage (may be different from the coordinates derived

from seismograms)

SEISMOGRAPH

In the modern seismographs the pen and the paper are substituted by digital

systems that capture the electrical signals transmitted by an electromagnetic

sensor placed inside the seismometer fixed to the ground

ITALIAN NETWORKS

RSN: more than 300 stations working a digitizer, a modem/router with antenna to transmit

in real time, connected to the INGV computerized data via GPRS, a GPS receiver to associate

the UTC universal time to the shake and to obtain the

center in Rome station latitude and longitude (at 2014)

RSN station and INGV seismic control room (Roma)

INGV Roma

Example of station

TYPE OF WAVES

P Waves

volume waves

from the source in all directions with a

succession from compressions to

expansions

S Waves

shear waves (secondary waves): cause

shifts in the orthogonal direction to the

direction of propagation of the wave

itself

and S waves with the earth's surface

consequence of the interaction of P

Love Waves

surface waves

displacements in the direction

perpendicular to the propagation;

Rayleigh Waves

ellipsoid motion in the vertical plane

containing the direction of propagation

Amplitude SEISMOGRAMS

P waves S waves

Surface waves

SATURATION

P-waves and S-waves graph

Time since the beginning of the earthquake (min)

S Wave

P Wave

RAPID LOCATION OF THE EPICENTER

1500 km

8600 km

MAGNITUDE: definition of ML

a tenfold increase in measured amplitude

ML = log10 A - log10 A0

• A is the max. semi-amplitude of the considered earthquake recorded by

the “standard” seismograph

• A0 is the corresponding size for the earthquake having ML=0;

amplitude measure equal to 0.001 mm made by a “standard” seismograph

(Wood-Anderson) located 100km far from the epicenter

MAGNITUDE: A0 values related to distances

MAGNITUDE: construction of a graphic scale

1. An arbitrary scale on the magnitude axis (0, 1, 2,…) and a point corresponding to the

distance of 100Km on the distances axis (point “D”) are fixed

2. The intersections among the amplitude axis ad the lines connecting the point “D” with

the point of the magnitude scale (0,1,2,…) identify the amplitude values 0.001, 0.01,

0.1, etc..

3. The values of A0 related to different distances (see table) are identified on the

amplitude axis. The distance scale is built by the lines connecting these points with the

“0” of the magnitude axis (e.g.: A0=0.0001mm ð d=300 km)

Distance

Magnitude

Amplitude (mm)

MAGNITUDE: use of a graphic scale

1. From the graph of the arrival time differences between the S and P

waves the distance from the epicenter is obtained

2. Connecting in the graph the values of the max recorded amplitude and

the distance from the epicenter, the approximated value of the magnitude

is obtained

Amplitude (mm)

Magnitude

Distance

MAGNITUDE: definition of Mb

Mb body-wave Magnitude

• T corresponding period (s) restricted to 0.1 ≤ T ≤ 3.0

• Q(D,h) correction factor that is a function of distance, D (degrees),

between epicenter and station (D >= 5°), and focal depth, h (km), of the

earthquake

MAGNITUDE: definition of Ms

Ms surface-wave Magnitude

component of the surface wave within the period range 18s ≤ T ≤ 22s

• T period in seconds.

• D distance in geocentric degrees (station to epicenter) and 20° ≤ D ≤ 160°

computed for depths greater than 50 kilometers.

MAGNITUDE: definition of Md

Md duration Magnitude

duration of the record

Md = A*Log(t) + B*d + C

• d distance hypocenter- station

• A,B,C correction parameters

MAGNITUDE: definition of Mw

Mw Moment Magnitude

Mw = 2/3 log Mo – 10.7

The seismic moment [N*m] is a measure of the size of an earthquake based

on the area of fault rupture, the average amount of slip, and the force that was

required to overcome the friction along the fault planes. Seismic moment can

also be calculated from the amplitude spectra of seismic waves.

Mo= μ A D

μ = rigidity module of the rock [Pa]

A = L*W = area [m2]

D = average displacement

during rupture [m]

RECORDED ACCELEROGRAMS

2

acc [m/s ]

2

0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

-1

-2

-3

t [s]

PRINCIPAL PARAMETERS FROM ACCELEROGRAMS

in the entire record (peak ground

acceleration)

p tf 2

Arias Intensity (m/s) Ia =

2g ò0

a ( t )dt

2p ò

tf

a 2 ( t ) dt

Destructive potential (m) pd =

0

2g n. a.

RESPONSE SPECTRUM

MOTION

EQUATION

&x& + 2nwx& + w 2 x = -a (t )

w = 2p/T

natural period T

damping factor ν = b/2ωm

Stiffness k Sd = xmax

x = displacement

x& = velocity Spectral pseudo-acceleration

and pseudo-velocity

x&& = acceleration

Sa ≈ wSv ≈ w2Sd

Damping b Mass m

RESPONSE SPECTRUM (Pseudo-acceleration)

RESPONSE SPECTRUM (Pseudo-velocity)

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0

Sv (m/s)

0.02

0.8 0.05

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Periodo proprio (s)

SPECTRAL INTENSITY

response spectrum (damping 5%)

0 .3

P s e u d o v e lo c ità [

0 .2

0 .1

0

0 0 .5 1 1 .5 2 2 .5

P e r io d o p r o p r io [s ]

0.5

SI = ò Sv (T ,0.05) dT

0.1

RESPONSE SPECTRUM (displacement)

0.06

0.05

0.04

0

0.02

Sd (m)

0.03 0.05

0.1

0.2

0.02

0.01

0

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Periodo proprio (s)

INTENSITY, MAGNITUDE, MAX. ACCELERATION

Empirical relationships

ü epicentral intensity = f (magnitude, focus depth)

ü acceleration = f (intensity)

ü acceleration = f (magnitude, distance)

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

AND SEISMIC SCENARIO

SEISMIC SCENARIO AND SEISMIC HAZARD

DETERMINISTIC PROBABILISTIC

V

U

L

SEISMIC SCENARIO N SEISMIC HAZARD

E

R

LOCAL A LOCAL

EFFECTS B EFFECTS

I

L

DETAILED SEISMIC I

LOCAL HAZARD

SCENARIO T

Y

DAMAGE SEISMIC

SCENARIO RISK

HAZARD ASSESSMENT: different approaches

Procedures: methodologies based on probabilistic analysis of the past events

under specific hypotheses

severities in given periods of time. The base result is the distribution function of the

events affecting a site and, consequently, the calculation of the hazard parameters;

e.g.: maximum acceleration (Amax) having a return period of “Tr” years, or, Amax

having exceedance probability of “x”% in “Dt” years

Procedures: methodologies based on the evaluation of the propagation in a given

area of a single, specifically chosen, event

or site, due to the occurrence of a single event

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

(PSHA)

the aim of calculating the expected ground motion level in a

given area/site.

To obtain the result, knowledge of structural geology and historic

and recent seismicity is necessary

structures built there

It’s frequent the use of parameters related to a specific return

period (e.g. ground acceleration, ag, spectral acceleration).

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: procedure

ü Internationally most used: simple and can be applied also with a limited

amount of data

ü Based on two restrictive and “strong” hypotheses

Hypotheses

1. Stationary process - Poissonian distribution of the events occurrence:

given a period of time Δt, the average number of

events in Δt doesn’t change at any time you

consider it

the occurrence probability of an event in each sub-

zone is the same, independently on the considered

sub-zone

*Cornell C.A., Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bulletin of Seismic Society of America,

58, 1968, pp. 1583-1606

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: procedure

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

BASIC ELEMENTS

ü Earthquake Catalogue

ü Seismic Sources

ü Attenuation Laws

EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE (Italian CPTI04)

2 DI -174 Sabina CFTI 1 100 100 42.250 12.670 A

3 DI -100 Picenum CFTI 1 85 85 43.170 13.500 A

4 DI -99 Norcia CFTI 2 90 80 M 42.800 13.100 A

9 DI 17 Reggio C.-Sicilia CFTI 2 85 85 37.800 15.200 A

11 DI 79 8 25 7 Area vesuviana CFTI 6 80 80 40.800 14.380 A

Maw Daw TW Mas Das TS Msp Dsp ZS9 TZ Ncft Nnt Ncpt

6.60 0.30 6.60 0.30 6.60 0.30 920 G 13 2

5.84 0.14 5.80 0.21 5.80 0.21 918 G 20 3

5.57 0.19 5.40 0.28 5.55 0.28 923 G 21 4

5.14 0.24 4.76 0.35 4.95 0.32 929 A 40 9

5.87 0.13 5.84 0.19 5.84 0.19 928 G 43 10

5.77 0.15 5.69 0.22 5.69 0.22 928 G 48 11

EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE (Italian CPTI04)

N Order number of record TL Localization code (A) automatic macroseismic, (M)

Tr Kind of record (param. Calculated from macroseismic manual macroseismic, (S) strumental

data or keep from parametric catalogs) Maw Moment Magnitude

Y Origin time:year Daw Error in the evaluation of Maw

M Origin time: month

Tw Determination code of Maw (observed)

D Origin time: day Mas Surface waves Magnitude

H Origin time: hour Das Error in the evaluation of Mas

Min Origin time: minute TE Determination code of M for the “Etnea” zone

Sec Origin time: second Msp Magnitude to be used with the attenuation law

EA Name of the epicentral area “Sabetta Pugliese”

Np Number of intensity data point ZS9 Assigned Source zone of the event

I0 Epicentral Intensity (MCS scale) Ncft Order number in the catalog CFTI2

Lon Epicentral Longitude

CATALOGUE CPTI04: CRITERIA

ENERGETIC TRESHOLDS

- sections pre-1980: Io ≥ 5/6 ; MCS o Ms ≥ 4.0 (used before in CPTI99 and NT4.1.1)

- sections post-1980: Ms ≥ 4.15

- Etnea zone Ms ≥ 3.0

CRONOLOGIC LIMITS

Events between 217 b.C. and 2002 AD

SEQUENCES ELABORATIONS

There are no aftershocks (events within 90 days and 30 km from the one identified as

“main event”)

GEOGRAFIC LIMITS

Italian events and, if in the boundaries, or near areas, but significantly felt in the

Italian territory

Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04), INGV, Bologna.

SEISMIC SOURCES: sismogenic zones in Italy

homogeneous from a geological,

structural and cinematic point of

view

estimation of the average depth of

earthquakes and prevalent faulting

mechanism was made

characterized by a proper

average seismicity defined by the

events distribution and severity

COMPLETNESS OF THE CATALOGUE DATA

assessment, limits must be fixed in the choice of the events to be considered

The probability of a catalogue incompleteness increases considering the

events occurred in a remote past having low severity Þ going back in the

past, the limits (in terms of severity: M, I) must be higher

2000

G1 G2 931

1900

1800

1700

1600

years

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 intervals for different

Msp seismogenetic zones in Italy

EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE: MODELS

(M≥ threshold) in a source zone.

There are various models to estimate/calculate those rates, as examples:

• the frequency-magnitude relationship due to Gutenberg and Richter (1956),

log10N = a - bM;

where N is the number of earthquakes with magnitude ≥ M, and a and b are

constants to be defined for each source zone (is then possible to calculate the

rates related to the single M intervals, non cumulated)

• individual rates (AR): dividing the «real»

number of events of the catalogue, by the

related number of years derived for each M

value considering the correspondent

completeness interval

be considered in the choice in the PSHA

study

Example of rates for some source zones in Italy

Gutenberg, B., Richter, C.F., 1956. Magnitude and energy of earthquakes. Ann. Geofis. 9, 1–15

(republished in Annals of Geophysics, 53, 7–12, 2010).

ATTENUATION LAWS

ground acceleration or intensity, with the distance from the epicenter or

hypocenter (considering also other parameters, like soil type etc.)

1.000

5 6 7

0.100

a/g

0.010

Example of

attenuation law:

acceleration Vs

0.001 distance,

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 depending on

magnitude

Distance [km]

ATTENUATION LAWS: Sabetta-Pugliese ‘96

velocity response spectra, PGA and PGV for horizontal component and fault distance

Freq. Const. Term Mag. Coeff. Dist. Coeff. Site Coeff. Site Coeff.

(Hz) a b c e1 e2 h s

5% damped 0.25 raw -2.409 0.684 -1 0 0.111 2.7 0.303

PSV (cm/sec) smooth -2.500 0.725 -1 0 0.100 2.6 0.319

0.33 raw -2.146 0.675 -1 0 0.109 2.7 0.344

smooth -2.250 0.715 -1 0 0.108 3.0 0.319

• Y: strong motion parameter to be 0.50 raw -2.082 0.706 -1 0 0.157 3.4 0.320

predicted smooth -1.900 0.687 -1 0 0.150 3.6 0.319

0.67 raw -1.647 0.654 -1 0 0.165 4.4 0.270

• M: magnitude

smooth -1.647 0.660 -1 0.010 0.175 4.0 0.315

• R: is the distance (fault or epicentral) 1.00 raw -1.297 0.605 -1 0 0.209 4.2 0.271

in kilometers smooth -1.280 0.612 -1 0.050 0.208 4.4 0.308

1.33 raw -1.006 0.557 -1 0.120 0.208 4.4 0.278

• e1S1 ed e2S2: related to the site smooth -1.000 0.570 -1 0.120 0.190 4.7 0.303

classification (e1S1 is for shallow soils, 2.00 raw -0.650 0.498 -1 0.249 0.124 5.1 0.301

while e2S2 is for deep soils) smooth -0.595 0.500 -1 0.230 0.124 5.0 0.290

2.50 raw -0.281 0.442 -1 0.219 0 4.8 0.285

• a, b, c, coefficients estimated through smooth -0.281 0.445 -1 0.222 0.078 5.2 0.280

nonlinear multiple regression 3.33 raw 0.202 0.354 -1 0.147 0 5.5 0.260

analysis, (c is set equal to –1 and smooth 0.100 0.377 -1 0.185 0.020 5.4 0.260

5.00 raw 0.296 0.326 -1 0.126 0 5.8 0.238

does not vary because it represents

smooth 0.296 0.323 -1 0.161 0 5.7 0.234

the energy decay due to geometric 6.67 raw 0.222 0.311 -1 0.161 0 5.8 0.220

spreading) smooth 0.222 0.310 -1 0.161 0 5.9 0.220

10.00 raw -0.019 0.304 -1 0.194 0 6.3 0.214

• h, is the pseudo-depth determined by

smooth -0.019 0.304 -1 0.161 0 6.2 0.208

regression 15.00 raw -0.312 0.304 -1 0.137 0 6.5 0.194

• s standard deviation of the logarithm smooth -0.312 0.304 -1 0.161 0 6.3 0.200

25.00 raw -0.817 0.336 -1 0.174 0 4.7 0.195

of Y

smooth -0.817 0.330 -1 0.161 0 4.7 0.195

PGA (g) -1.845 0.363 -1 0.195 0 5.0 0.190

PGV (cm/sec) -0.828 0.489 -1 0.116 0.116 3.9 0.249

ATTENUATION LAWS: Ambraseys ‘96

1.600

7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5

1.400 5 4.5 4

1.200

1.000

PSA 5Hz (g)

0.800

0.600

0.400

0.200

0.000

1 10 100

Distanza [km]

ATTENUATION LAWS

0

1

2

Io - Ii

3

4

5

6

Distanza (km)

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: procedure

magnitude, for each seismogenic zone N(Mi) earthquakes occurrence

2. Partition of each zone (area=A) in k sub-zones (“sufficiently small”,

area=Ak). Considering the hypothesis 2 (uniform spatial distribution), the

number of events in each sub-zone is Nk(Mi) = N(Mi) * Ak / A

3. Determination of the significant events for the studied site: by the

application of an attenuation law to each class of events in each sub-zone

(for all of the zones), the events having, at the site, a severity above a

minimum threshold (e.g. in terms of acceleration/g, named “y”), are

obtained

4. Count of the average annual number of the significant event for the site,

grouped in classes based on acceleration values

5. Calculation of the annual number of events having acceleration ≥ yi, N(yi),

and total number of events per year: λs=N(y1)

6. Calculation of the exceedance probability distribution (1-F(y)) Þ

N(y)=λs [1-Fy(y)]

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: RESULTS

1 1

ü return periods for the acceleration values: Tr = =

N ls[1 - Fy(y)]

ü exceedance probability of the acceleration in Δt years: p

EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY IN Δt YEARS

to express the relation:

- Dt / Tr

p = 1- e

Relation between the exceedance probability “p” of the acceleration

in “Δt” years and the correspondent return period “Tr”

(e.g.: p=10% in Δt =50 years Þ Tr=475 years)

between the return period and the distribution 1-F(y)

the related acceleration value can be determined

1 1

Tr = =

N ls[1 - Fy(y)]

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: example of result

1.E+00

Average annual n° of events for Amax classes

1.E-01

1.E-02

1.E-03

1.E-04

1.E-05

1.E-06

1.E-07

1.E-08

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.25

Amax (g)

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: example of result

1.E+00

1.E-01

1.E-02

1.E-03

1- F(y)

1.E-04

1.E-05

1.E-06

1.E-07

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3

y (g)

Example of exceedance probability in 50 years

1E+00

in 50 years

1E-01

di Ag in 50 anni

of the acceleration

1E-02

di eccedenza

1E-03

Probability

1E-04

ExceedanceProbabilità

1E-05

1E-06

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3

Ag (g)

LOGIC TREE TO OBTAIN THE AMAX VALUES

Total

weight

HAZARD MAPS IN ITALY

Maximum ground

acceleration with

exceedance probability

10% in 50 years

(Tr = 475 years)

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: procedure

hazard parameter required

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: choice of the event

Criteria:

ü use of the scenario: planning emergency activity for

§ moderate and relatively frequent events

§ violent and relatively rare events

§ maximum credible event

ü type of method

Needed data:

ü Earthquake catalogue

ü Knowledge of the geological structures

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: methods

physical

simplified

1.000

5 6 7

0.100

+ a/g

0.010

0.001

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Distance [km]

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: example of result

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: example of result

GARGNANO GARGNANO

VOBARNO VOBARNO

TOSCOLANO TOSCOLANO

MADERNO MADERNO

rda

GARDONE rda GARDONE

Ga

Ga

di

di

RIVIERA RIVIERA

go

go

La

La

0.55 VILLANUOVA ROE` VILLANUOVA ROE`

SUL CLISI VOLCIANO SUL CLISI VOLCIANO

SALO` SALO` r

2.75

2.65 2.55

2.25

GAVARDO GAVARDO 2.45 2.35 2.15 2.05

1.85

1.95 1.75 1.65

1.55 1.45

1.35 1.25 1.15 1.05 0.95

0.85

Amax (m/s2)

COMPARISON OF THE TWO APPROACHES

Probabilistic approach:

• definition of seismic actions for technical codes

• base for risk assessment

• base for prevention policies (e.g.: seismic municipalities

classification in Italy)

Deterministic approach:

base to construct seismic damage scenario for:

• pre earthquake emergency planning

• post earthquake estimate of situation (number of collapsed

buildings, number of victims, number of injured people)

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