You are on page 1of 4

Multifamily Metro Outlook: Boston Winter 2018

Overview
Boston’s apartment market saw remarkable strength as the area recovered from the Great Recession, but those
conditions have now moderated, and the rental market has downgraded a bit from exceptional to healthy. Aside from the
local economy slightly moderating, the apartment development pipeline has been active, with a continued high level of
new units to be added to inventory into 2018, likely resulting in softness for these new projects.
Boston was among the first metros to recover the jobs it lost in the Great Recession, although being faster to recover
does not mean that it has had one of the more robust recoveries. In the year ending Q3 2017, the number of jobs grew
1.8 percent, outperforming the national average of 1.4 percent. Overall, Boston will likely trail the national averages over
the forecast horizon. However, Boston’s diverse knowledge-based economy is low risk and stable. The metro’s economy
should perform predictably at slightly below national average rates.
Boston has enjoyed a historically stable rental market, with vacancy rates below 4 percent (according to CoStar) due to
its position as the financial and academic capital of New England. While the population is not growing rapidly, it remains
fairly wealthy (median income per household is 46 percent above national average) due to job concentrations in higher
paying industries, including Education and Health Services.
Development
Around 39,400 apartment units have been completed since the beginning of 2012, and an additional 19,600 apartment
units are underway. Boston’s high incomes, low housing affordability, and moderate job and population growth rates
make this level of development reasonable, but the high volume of new supply will probably ease rent growth and
vacancy levels.
Since the beginning of 2006, around 19,700 condo units were completed, and 2,900 are underway and expected by Q4
2018. Another 4,000 units converted to condo between 2004 and 2006. Unlike other cities in which much of the recent
activity has been in the luxury segment, many of these units could potentially enter the rental market in segments that
compete with market rate units that are typically financed by Fannie Mae. This potential oversupply is a concern but is
mitigated by the generally high cost of housing in the metro.
Outlook
The recent strength in the job market, coupled with limited supply, allowed for steady vacancy improvements and strong
rent increases. A moderating job market and an upcoming surge in new supply are likely to ease conditions in the metro
slightly, particularly for high-end projects that are already offering increasing concessions. Still, Boston remains one of
the nation’s healthier economies and apartment markets.
Forecasts indicate that Boston should easily absorb significant new supply to its rental markets over the long term. While
economic and demographic growth is expected to be below national averages, potential concerns about apartment
market softening are mitigated by the difficulty of obtaining new land and development rights. Developers have begun
adding meaningful new inventory to the market, which will likely prevent Boston from experiencing tightening vacancy
levels or improving rent growth rates.
.
Vacancy and Rent Composite Estimates
Vacancy Rate Asking Rent Growth
11% 3%
10% National
9% 2%
8% Boston
7% 1%
6% 0%
5%
4% -1%
3% Q3 2017: +0.25%
2% Q3 2017: 4.5% -2% National
1% Boston Asking Rent: $1,695
-3%

Source: Fannie Mae Multifamily and Economics Research


© 2018 Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 1
CBRE-EA Q3 2017 Market Inventory:
12,000 469,000 Units 6.0%
10,000 5.0%
8,000
4.0%
6,000
3.0%
4,000
Net Absorption 2.0%
2,000
Completions 1.0%
0
Vacancy
(2,000) 0.0%

Q3 2017 Market Inventory: REIS


8,000 221,000 Units 7.0%
Net Absorption
7,000 6.0%
Completions
6,000 Vacancy 5.0%
5,000
4.0%
4,000
3.0%
3,000
2,000 2.0%
1,000 1.0%
0 0.0%

CoStar
10,000 Q3 2017 Market Inventory: 7.0%
9,000 186,000 Units
8,000 6.0%
7,000 5.0%
6,000
5,000 4.0%
4,000 3.0%
3,000 Net Absorption
2,000 2.0%
Net Completions
1,000 1.0%
0 Vacancy
(1,000) 0.0%

Annual Rent Growth


12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0% CBRE-EA
4.0%
REIS
2.0%
0.0% CoStar
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%

© 2018 Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 2


Construction Bidding/Underway
(149 projects/20,000 Units/24.6 M Sq. Feet)

Num ber of Total Sq Ft Total


CBRE-EA Subm arket
Projects (000's) Units
Boston City 38 3337 2499
Brookline/Brighton/New ton 6 767 691
Cambridge/Watertow n/Waltham 23 3812 2987
Central City/Back Bay/Beacon Hill 18 4930 4262
Manchester-Nashua, NH 3 571 441
Mystic River North/Route 128 12 2113 1927
North Shore/Merrimack River Valley 17 2658 1945
Plymouth County/Other 2 123 116
Rockingham County-Strafford County, NH 2 376 238
South Shore/Route 128 South 8 1713 1353
South/Southeast Suburban 8 1480 1391
West/Northw est Suburban 7 1983 1706
Worcester, MA 5 778 525

Source: Dodge Data & Analytics © 2018 Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 3
Multifamily Metro Outlook: Boston Winter 2018

Fannie Mae Multifamily Economics and Market Research

Tim Komosa, Economist

Sources Used
• AxioMetrics
• CBRE-Econometric Advisors
• Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Census Bureau
• CoStar
• Dodge Data & Analytics
• Moody’s Analytics
• Real Capital Analytics
• Reis, Inc.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Multifamily Economics and Market Research
(EMR) group included in this commentary should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or
expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information
affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the EMR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates,
forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these
materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information
underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other
views published by the EMR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily
represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

© 2018 Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 4