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Faisal I Khan Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science Memorial University
What may happen
What may happen
What may happen
What Risk Analysis Can Do?
Helps in – Forecasting any unwanted situation – Estimating damage potential of such situation – Decision making to control such situation – Evaluating effectiveness of control measures
Outline of presentation Definitions of Risk and Hazard Risk Assessment Process Environmental Risk Assessment Industrial Risk Assessment Reliability Risk Assessment Application of Industrial Risk Assessment Application of Environmental Risk Assessment .
Hazard Hazard: It is a measure of harm/loss or potentiality of an event to cause harm/loss – Fire Hazard – Explosion Hazard – Toxic Hazard – Corrosive Hazard – Radioactive Hazards .
It is a combination of hazard and Probability – Risk = Probability of occurrence of hazard X magnitude of hazard Type of Risks – Background risk – Incremental risk – Total risk Measurement of Risk – Individual Risk – Societal Risk .Risk The probability of suffering a harm or loss.
0E05 /yr . – Risk of Death due to fire in an industry = 1.Individual Risk Risk posed by an individual – It is generally measured in time domain for a particular type of hazard.0E1.
0E- .Societal Risk Risk for a group of people – It is measured in terms of number of people poses particular risk for a given period of time. – Risk of Death to 10 workers due to fire in an industry = 1.0E-09 /yr/10 persons 1.
Acceptable Risk Risk that’s acceptable to regulatory agency and also to the public Level of Risk of Death Per Year (voluntarily acceptable by public) – Smoking 30 cigarettes per day 1 in 200 – Man aged 35-44 1 in 600 35– Motor Vehicle Accident 1 in 10 000 – Accident at home 1 in 12 000 – Rail accident 1 in 420 000 .
Acceptable Risk Criteria UK Health and Safety Executive Criteria: FAR (Fatality Accident Rate) Number of fatality in life time working in an industry – FAR = (Number of fatalities)*108/(Total hours worked by all employees during period covered) – Acceptable FAR value 1.0 .
0 is defined acceptable .0E-06) is defined as (1.Acceptable Risk Criteria US EPA For carcinogens/or other events a lifetime risk of 1 in million (1.0Eacceptable For non-carcinogens a hazard index less nonthan 1.
Acceptable Risk Criteria Dutch Acceptable risk criteria 1.0 100 10 Number of fatalities .0E-06 Conditional Acceptable 1.0E-08 1.0E-05 Frequency of event Unacceptable region 1.
0E-03 Indiv idu a l r isk (IR ) The ALARP 1. This concept of diminishing proportion is shown by the triangle Unacceptable region 1.0E-09 .0E-05 Broadly acceptable region Tolerable only if risk reduction Is impracticable or cost is grossly disproportionate to the improvement gained 1.ALARP As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALRAP) 1.0E-01 The lower the risk less proportionately.0E-07 Negligible risk 1. it is necessary to spend to reduce it.
2E-05 1.2E-07 1.2E-05 4.ALARP application 1. 1 Co m p r.2E-07 1.0E-05 2.0E+01 Units After remedial meaures Unacceptable region 1.3E-06 5. 2 Co m p r.0E-07 Broadly acceptable region 1.5E-07 5.2E-05 1.4E-02 In d iv id u a l R isk ( IR ) 5.0E-09 Sep a.2E-01 1. 1 Sep a. 2 D r ie r F la sh Negligible risk 5.7E-03 1.0E-03 3. Comparision of individual risk factors with ALARP criteria .0E-01 Figure 11.2E-01 Before remedial measures 1.7E-04 ALARP 1.
0E-04 2.0E-06 .Risk Representation Individual Risk Contour 1.0E-05 5.
Risk Representation FN curves Frequency of occurrence (F) Number of fatalities (N) .
Risk Assessment Definition and Classification .
It involves: – – – – Identification of hazard Quantification of hazard Quantification of probability of occurrence of hazard Estimation of risk .Risk Assessment Risk Assessment is a systematic procedure for describing and quantifying the risk associated with hazardous substance. process. action or event.
Classification of Risk Assessment According to scope of work. risk assessment may be classified as: Environmental Risk Assessment Industrial Risk Assessment Reliability Risk Assessment Financial Risk Assessment Health Risk Assessment .
Environmental Risk Assessment Contaminant Risk Assessment .
Environmental Risk Assessment Risk source Exposure Process Consequence process Release Assessment (Hazard Identification) Exposure Assessment Consequence Assessment (Toxicity Assessment) Risk Estimation (Risk Characterization) .
Environmental Risk Assessment Hazard identification – Identification of all possible sources of hazards such chemicals. – Estimate their strength at various mediums – Rank them according to their severity – Set up priority for the most vulnerable ones Parameters used for screening and ranking – – – – – Concentration Frequency of detection Mobility Persistence in the environment Treat ability . etc. events.
Environmental Risk Assessment Exposure Assessment Activities involve in exposure assessment (Benzene) Benzene) – – – – – – – Release mechanism (volatilization) (volatilization) Transport mechanism (air convection) (air convection) Transfer mechanism (volatilization) (volatilization) Transformation mechanism (chemical reaction) (chemical reaction) Exposure point (air) (air) Receptors (population) (population) Exposure Rout (inhalation) (inhalation) .
C: concentration at exposure point (mg/L in water and mg/cu m in air). ED: exposure duration (yr). EF: AT: EF: Frequency of exposure (days/year) . BW: body ED: BW: weight (kg). AT: Averaging time (days).Environmental Risk Assessment Exposure Point Concentration: Receptor dose I = (C*CR*EF*ED)/(BW*AT) Where. CR: contact CR: rate (L/day). I: intake (mg/kg).
etc Inhalation of vapors and/or particulates On-site receptor Transport Mechanism Exposure Media Soil dermal contact and ingestion Receptors Groundwater ingestion Off-site receptor . swimming. fish consumption.Exposure pathways Source Affected surface soil Wind erosion Atmospheric dispersion Affected subsurface soils Volatilization Accumulation in enclosed space Leaching Affected Groundwater Groundwater transport Surface water.
human or other living system Response Dose .Environmental Risk Assessment Consequence assessment/Toxicity assessment Adverse effect on environment.
Environmental Risk Assessment Risk Estimation Carcinogenic risk – Risk = CDI*Slope factor NonNon-carcinogenic risk – HI = CDI/RfD – HI: Hazard index (dimensionless) – CDI: Chronic daily intake (mg/kg-day) (mg/kg– RfD: Reference dose (mg/Kg-day) (mg/Kg- .
Industrial Risk Assessment Safety Risk Assessment .
Industrial Risk Assessment Steps involve: – Hazard Identification – Hazard Assessment – Consequence Analysis – Risk Characterization .
Industrial Risk Assessment Hazard Identification – DOW Indiex – Mond Index – SWeHI index – AHI index .
Industrial Risk Assessment Hazard Assessment – Qualitative hazard assessment HAZOP technique OptHAZOP technique – Probabilistic hazard assessment Fault tree analysis .
PI&D's. PFD. and operating manuals are examined to identify causes and consequences for all possible deviations from normal operation that could arise .Industrial Risk Assessment HAZOP – HAZOP is a simple structured methodology for hazard identification and assessment. material flow diagrams.
Industrial Risk Assessment T a k e o n e u n it o r s tu d y n o d e at a m om ent HAZOP K e e p th is u n it fo r c o n v e n tio n a l H A Z O P s tu d y C o m p a re th e s tu d y n o d e w ith th e u n it o f In fo rm a tio n B a s e IN F O R M A T IO N BASE No Is u n it m a tc h in g Yes A p p ly g u id e w o rd s A n a ly s e th e c a u s e s a n d c o n s e q u e n c e s o f th e d e v ia tio n d r a w n fr o m th e IN F O R M A T IO N BASE A d d or rem ove ca uses an d c o n s e q u e n c e s d u e to s p e c ia l b e n a v io u r o f u n it No Yes A re a ll d e v ia tio n s over ? A r e a ll s tu d y N o nodes over ? Yes P repare H A Z O P r e p o rt S to p .
Industrial Risk Assessment HAZOP Report Project details Study node Guide word Parameter Causes Consequences Recommendation Rank .
Industrial Risk Assessment Consequence analysis – Fire modeling – Explosion modeling – Impact modeling – Toxic release and dispersion modeling .
Industrial Risk Assessment Risk Estimation and Characterization – Individual Risk – Societal Risk .
Industrial Risk Assessment Latest Methodologies WHO methodology – Identification of Hazards Checklist Matrix diagram of interaction – Assessment of Hazards Accident sequence analysis Failure effect analysis – Accident Consequence Analysis .
Industrial Risk Assessment Quantitative Risk Analysis – Hazard identification – Frequency estimation – Consequence Analysis – Measure of Risk Probabilistic safety analysis – Shown in next slide .
Hazard identification Identification of plant operating stage Initiating event selection Function system relation Screening of initiating even Accident sequence modeling Event sequence modeling System modeling Human performance analysis Data acquisition and parameter estimation Initiating events Component failure data Human error probability Accident sequence quantification Determination of accident sequence Boolean reduction Hazardous Substance Release Category Assessment Outflow model Evaporation model Weather conditions Relation of plant damage state & release category Consequence assessment Dispersion models Assessment of doses Dose response models Integration of results .
ORA procedure M o d u le r iz a tio n o f c o m p le te p la n t in to m a n a g e a b le u n it s H a z a r d id e n t if ic a t io n * H IR A te c h n iq u e a id to d e v e lo p a c c id e n t s c e n a r io a id to d e v e lo p a c c id e n t s c e n a r io Q u a lit a t iv e h a z a r d a s s e s s m e n t * o p tH A Z O P p r o c e d u r e * T O P H A Z O P to o l Q C * * * u o M H D a n tita tiv e h a z a r d a s s e s s m e n t/ n s e q u e n c e a s s e s s m e n t O S E C fo r F ir e a n d e x p lo s io n s A Z D IG fo r to x ic r e le a s e a n d d is p e r s io n O M IF F E C T fo r c a s c a d in g e ffe c ts P r o b a b ilis t ic h a z a r d * P R O F A T to o l a s s e s s m e n t R is k e s t im a t io n S to p .
Safety Analysis Description and definition of system System Modification to incorporate suggested risk control measures Hazard Identification Quantitative Risk assessment Probabilistic Safety Analysis Accident Modeling Frequency estimations Risk Quantification Risk Documentation & Follow up plan ORA Risk management .
Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Based Maintenance .
Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Based Maintenance Planning – Risk estimation Hazard identification Quantitative Hazard Assessment Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Risk Quantification – Risk evaluation Setting up risk acceptance criteria Risk comparison – Maintenance planning .
What would be the impacts? Start What may go wrong? How it may go wrong? How likely its occurrence? What maintenance schedule would reduce its likelihood of occurrence? Apply maintenance measures and reevaluate risk Hazard identification Quantitative hazard assessment Accident scenario development Probabilistic hazard assessment Fault tree for the envisaged scenario Fault tree development Consequences analysis Fault tree analysis Risk estimation Whether risk is in acceptance? No Suggest maintenance measures to control risk Yes End .
Divide system in manageable units Consider one unit at a time Risk Based Maintenance Risk estimation •Hazard identification/failure scenario development •Hazard quantification •Probability analysis •Risk estimation Risk Evaluation •Setting up acceptance risk criteria •Comparison of assessed risk with acceptance criteria Maintenance planning •Development of maintenance plan to bring down the unacceptable risk to acceptable level •Maintenance scheduling .
Risk Estimation Start Consider one unit Development of accident or failure scenario Quantitative hazard assessment Probabilistic hazard assessment Estimation of likely damage area Fault tree development Consequences assessment Risk estimation Fault tree analysis No Are all units over? Yes Move to next module .
Risk factors of one unit Risk Evaluation Comparison of estimated risk against acceptance criteria Risk factors of another unit Yes Risk factors of another unit Is risk acceptable? No Setting up acceptance risk criteria Add this unit for the maintenance planning No Are all units over? Yes Move to next module .
Risk factors of one unit Maintenance planning Risk factors of another unit Setup target risk for this unit Conduct reverse fault tree analysis to calculate maintenance duration No Are all units over? Yes Re do the fault tree analysis and risk computation of all the units considering maintenance Setup new target risk No Is revised risk acceptable? Yes Develop maintenance plan .
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