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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 8TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM PST

UltraPoll - British Columbia Edition

Voter Intention Numbers Leaders’ Favourability Ratings Electoral Reform Referendum Quetion

8th November 2018

METHODOLOGY The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted between October 31st

METHODOLOGY

The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted between October 31st

to November 2nd 2018 among a sample of

963 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviews on both

landlines and cellular phones.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both

a national telephone directory compiled

by Mainstreet Research from commerical available sources and random digit dialing. The part of the survey that dialed from the

directory was conducted as a stratified dial

of three regions in British Columbia; Greater

Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case of random digit

dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided in.

The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.15% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

(full methodology appears at the end of this report)

ABOUT MAINSTREET

With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate

snapshots of public opinion, having predicted

a majority NDP government in Alberta, and

was the only polling firm to correctly predict

a Liberal majority government in the 2015

federal election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections in November 2017, and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication standards.

CONTACT INFORMATION

In Ottawa:

Quito Maggi, President quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:

www.mainstreetresearch.ca

twitter.com/MainStResearch

facebook.com/mainstreetresearch

ELECTORAL REFORM REFERENDUM A DEAD HEAT, LIBERALS AND NDP TIED 8 November 2018 (Vancouver, BC)

ELECTORAL REFORM REFERENDUM A DEAD HEAT, LIBERALS AND NDP TIED

8 November 2018 (Vancouver, BC) – The BC Liberals take a narrow lead over the NDP while the referendum on electoral reform is a dead heat.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 963 British Columbians between October 31st to November 2nd 2018. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.15% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The story right now in BC politics is the referendum on electoral reform”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This is shaping up to be the closest referendum in BC history and its outcome is far from certain.”

50.5% of respondents say that they will vote for the existing first past the post system, while 49.5% said that they would vote for a proportional representation system.

“The referendum could go either way especially as less than 1% of eligible voters have cast their votes so far,” continued Maggi. “One thing to note is that there is a significant age gap in support for electoral reform.”

62% of respondents between the ages of 18 to 34 say they will vote for PR, while the same amount of respondents over the age of 65 say they will vote for the existing system.

The poll also found that the BC Liberals have widened their lead slightly over the NDP.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson lead with 33.9%, but the governing NDP led by John Horgan follow closely with 32.3% of support. The BC Green Party with Andrew Weaver at the helm have 18.2%.

“The slight dip for the NDP is likely due to an uptick of support for the Greens,” said Maggi. “That said, the NDP and the BC Liberals remain in a statistical tie.”

The poll also asked favourability ratings for four party leaders and found that only Premier Horgan has a net positive favourability rating.

“This is a bright spot in these findings for the NDP,” continued Maggi. “Horgan has the highest favourability rating out of the four major party leaders.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?

12.8% 2.2% 28.6% 11.1% All Voters 16.1% 29.2%
12.8%
2.2%
28.6%
11.1%
All Voters
16.1%
29.2%
3% 12.6% 32.3% 8.2% Decided and Leaning Voters 33.9% NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
3%
12.6%
32.3%
8.2%
Decided and Leaning Voters
33.9%
NDP
BC Liberals
Greens
BC Conservatives
Another Party
Undecided

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?

(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

32.3% 33.9% 18.2% 12.6% 3% 32.5% 36.5% 18% 9.4% 3.5% 37.4% 28.7% 23.3% 9.4% 1.1%
32.3%
33.9%
18.2%
12.6%
3%
32.5%
36.5%
18%
9.4%
3.5%
37.4%
28.7%
23.3%
9.4%
1.1%
28.8%
32.2%
15.5%
20.3%
3.2%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
NDP
BC Liberals
Greens
BC Conservatives
Another Party
IslandBC
Interior
CMAVancouver
AllVancouver

40

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following party leaders?

9.5% 32.8% 26.4% John Horgan 31.3%
9.5%
32.8%
26.4%
John Horgan
31.3%
14.9% 24.7% Andrew Weaver 31.6% 28.6% Favourable Unfavourable
14.9%
24.7%
Andrew Weaver
31.6%
28.6%
Favourable
Unfavourable
19% 18.2% Andrew Wilkinson 39.1%
19%
18.2%
Andrew Wilkinson
39.1%

23.6%

7.3% 13.7% 38.8% Scott Anderson 40.2% Not Sure Not Familiar
7.3%
13.7%
38.8%
Scott Anderson
40.2%
Not Sure
Not Familiar

As you might know, there is a referendum occurring right now where British Columbians are being asked to choose which electoral system they want to see used in provincial elections. Which system should British Columbia use for provincial elections?

system should British Columbia use for provincial elections? 50.5% Preferred electoral system 4 9 . 5

50.5%

Preferred electoral system
Preferred electoral system

49.5%

A Proportional Representation Voting Systemuse for provincial elections? 50.5% Preferred electoral system 4 9 . 5 % The Current First

The Current First Past the Post Voting Systemuse for provincial elections? 50.5% Preferred electoral system 4 9 . 5 % A Proportional Representation

If British Columbia adopts a proportional representation voting system, which of the following voting systems do you prefer?

(only asked of respondents who indicated that they would be voting for a proportional representative system)

would be voting for a proportional representative system) 17% 38.2% Preferred proportional system 44.8% Dual
17% 38.2% Preferred proportional system 44.8% Dual Member proportional Mixed Member proportional
17%
38.2%
Preferred proportional system
44.8%
Dual Member proportional
Mixed Member proportional
38.2% Preferred proportional system 44.8% Dual Member proportional Mixed Member proportional Rural-Urban Proportional

Rural-Urban Proportional

Breakout Tables

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? (all voters)

 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

BC NDP led by John Horgan

28.6%

27.5%

29.7%

32.3%

25.7%

26.3%

30.5%

28.5%

35.4%

24.8%

BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson

29.2%

33.8%

24.8%

23.2%

28.7%

30%

36.4%

31.4%

24.1%

28.4%

BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver

16.1%

12.7%

19.5%

17.1%

19.5%

14.7%

12.8%

16.1%

20.7%

13.6%

BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson

11.1%

12%

10.2%

13%

11.1%

10.5%

9.3%

8%

8.9%

17.8%

Another Party

2.2%

2.8%

1.5%

1.6%

3.9%

1.8%

1.3%

2.8%

1.1%

1.6%

Undecided

12.8%

11.2%

14.2%

12.7%

11%

16.7%

9.7%

13.1%

9.7%

13.9%

Unweighted Frequency

963

541

422

150

206

288

319

409

173

381

Weighted Frequency

963

474

489

259

234

266

203

507

170

286

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

BC NDP led by John Horgan

30.6%

29.6%

31.7%

34.2%

27.7%

28.9%

31.8%

30.6%

36.6%

27.3%

BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson

32.1%

37.1%

27.2%

28.2%

30.1%

33.1%

37.9%

34.2%

28.4%

30.4%

BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver

17.3%

13.4%

21%

17.7%

20.2%

16.6%

14.1%

16.8%

22.9%

14.7%

BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson

12%

12.1%

11.8%

13.5%

11.8%

11.7%

10.6%

8.8%

9.2%

19.3%

Another Party

2.8%

3.5%

2.2%

2.9%

4.7%

2.1%

1.6%

3.3%

1.1%

3%

Undecided

5.2%

4.3%

6.1%

3.4%

5.4%

7.6%

4%

6.3%

1.8%

5.3%

Unweighted Frequency

963

541

422

150

206

288

319

409

173

381

Weighted Frequency

963

474

489

259

234

266

203

507

170

286

 

(decided and leaning voters)

 
 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

BC NDP led by John Horgan

32.3%

31%

33.5%

35.4%

29.3%

31.2%

33.2%

32.5%

37.4%

28.8%

BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson

33.9%

38.8%

29%

29.2%

31.8%

35.9%

39.5%

36.5%

28.7%

32.2%

BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver

18.2%

13.9%

22.4%

18.4%

21.4%

18%

14.7%

18%

23.3%

15.5%

BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson

12.6%

12.6%

12.6%

14%

12.5%

12.6%

11%

9.4%

9.4%

20.3%

Another Party

3%

3.7%

2.4%

3.1%

5%

2.3%

1.7%

3.5%

1.1%

3.2%

Unweighted Frequency

915

519

396

144

196

268

307

383

170

362

Weighted Frequency

915

450

464

246

223

223

193

482

162

272

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?

 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

Favourable

32.8%

31.4%

34.2%

33.4%

32.6%

33.4%

31.6%

35%

40.7%

24.3%

Unfavourable

31.3%

35.5%

27.1%

24.3%

31%

36.4%

33.8%

27.1%

34.6%

36.6%

Not Familiar with John Horgan

9.5%

7.9%

11%

12.5%

9.4%

6.6%

9.4%

9.7%

7.5%

10.3%

Not Sure

26.4%

25.1%

27.8%

29.9%

26.9%

23.6%

25.2%

28.1%

17.2%

28.9%

Unweighted Frequency

963

541

422

150

206

288

319

409

173

381

Weighted Frequency

963

474

489

259

234

266

203

507

170

286

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Wilkinson?

 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

Favourable

18.2%

21.3%

15.2%

14.3%

15.7%

20.8%

22.9%

17.8%

17.7%

19.3%

Unfavourable

23.6%

25%

22.3%

24.7%

23.8%

20.8%

25.7%

23.9%

27.4%

20.9%

Not Familiar with Andrew Wilkinson

19%

17.1%

20.9%

21.8%

19.6%

18.2%

15.9%

17.6%

22.6%

19.3%

Not Sure

39.1%

36.6%

41.6%

39.2%

40.9%

40.3%

35.4%

40.7%

32.2%

40.5%

Unweighted Frequency

963

541

422

150

206

288

319

409

173

381

Weighted Frequency

963

474

489

269

234

266

203

507

170

286

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Weaver?

 
 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

Favourable

24.7%

23.3%

26.1%

22.8%

31.2%

22.4%

22.8%

22.5%

41.2%

18.9%

Unfavourable

28.6%

34.1%

23.6%

20.9%

28.4%

33.1%

33.4%

28.2%

26.4%

31.1%

Not Familiar with Andrew Weaver

14.9%

13.5%

16.4%

20.8%

13.3%

10.5%

15.2%

15%

5.8%

20.3%

Not Sure

31.6%

29.2%

33.9%

35.5%

27.1%

34%

28.6%

34.3%

26.6%

29.7%

Unweighted Frequency

963

541

422

150

206

288

319

409

173

381

Weighted Frequency

963

474

489

259

234

266

203

507

170

286

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Scott Anderson?

 
 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

Favourable

7.3%

8.6%

6%

10.1%

6.5%

7.3%

4.7%

6.3%

5%

10.5%

Unfavourable

13.7%

15.8%

11.6%

14%

12.6%

13.9%

14.3%

13.3%

19.2%

11.2%

Not Familiar with Scott Anderson

38.8%

35.6%

41.9%

35.7%

42.5%

36.9%

41%

38.9%

38.1%

39%

Not Sure

40.2%

40%

40.4%

40.1%

38.5%

42%

40%

41.5%

37.7%

39.4%

Unweighted Frequency

963

541

422

150

206

288

319

409

173

381

Weighted Frequency

963

474

489

259

234

266

203

507

170

286

 

Do you think there will be an election next month?

 
 

Total

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Greater Vancouver

Vancouver Island

Rest of BC

Yes

34.1%

34.5%

33.8%

36%

35.8%

34.7%

29%

34.3%

39.6%

30.5%

No

43.2%

45.3%

41.1%

34.5%

38.6%

50.4%

50%

45.7%

35.1%

45.6%

Not Sure

22.7%

20.2%

25.1%

29.5%

25.6%

14.9%

21%

20%

25.3%

23.9%

Unweighted Frequency

933

518

415

122

184

252

375

350

223

360

Weighted Frequency

933

459

474

251

227

258

197

355

223

356

As you might know, there is a referendum occurring right now where British Columbians are being asked to choose which electoral system they want to see used in provincial elections. Which system should British Columbia use for provincial elections?

 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

A Proportional Representation Voting System

49.5%

46.8%

52.2%

61.9%

49.3%

46.6%

37.9%

50.1%

52.7%

46.7%

The Current First Past the Post Voting System

50.5%

53.2%

47.8%

38.1%

50.7%

53.4%

62.1%

49.9%

47.3%

53.3%

Unweighted Frequency

963

541

422

150

206

288

319

409

173

381

Weighted Frequency

963

474

489

259

234

266

203

507

170

286

If British Columbia adopts a proportional representation voting system, which of the following voting systems do you prefer?

 

All

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Vancouver CMA

Vancouver Island

BC Interior

Dual Member proportional

17%

18.9%

15.4%

9.8%

31.8%

14%

14.9%

17.4%

21.3%

13.5%

Mixed Member proportional

44.8%

45.4%

44.2%

44.6%

40.6%

45.3%

50.5%

50.4%

40.4%

37%

Rural-Urban Proportional

38.2%

35.7%

40.4%

45.6%

27.6%

40.7%

34.6%

32.2%

38.3%

49.5%

Unweighted Frequency

440

234

206

94

100

129

117

194

86

160

Weighted Frequency

440

222

255

160

115

124

77

254

90

133

Full Questionnaire

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? British Columbia New Democratic Party led by John Horgan British Columbia Liberal Party led by Andrew Wilkinson Green Party of British Columbia led by Andrew Weaver British Columbia Conservative Party led by Scott Anderson Another Party Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of respondents who were undecided in previous question) British Columbia New Democratic Party led by John Horgan British Columbia Liberal Party led by Andrew Wilkinson Green Party of British Columbia led by Andrew Weaver British Columbia Conservative Party led by Scott Anderson Another Party Undecided

(the order of the next four questions were randomized) Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan? Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not sure Not familiar with John Horgan

Not sure Not familiar with Andrew Weaver

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Scott Anderson? Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not sure Not familiar with Scott Anderson

As you might know, there is a referendum occurring right now where British Columbians are being asked to choose which electoral system they want to see used in provincial elections. Which system should British Columbia use for provincial elections? The current First Past the Post voting system A proportional representation voting system

If British Columbia adopts a proportional representation voting system, which of the following voting systems do you prefer? (only asked of respondents who chose a proportional representation voting system) Dual Member Proportional Mixed Member Proportional Rural–Urban Proportional

What is your gender? Male Female

What is your age group? 18 to 34 years of age

 

35

to 49 years of age

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable

50

to 64 years of age

opinion of Andrew Wilkinson? Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not sure Not familiar with Andrew Wilkinson

65 years of age or older

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Weaver? Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 31st to November 2nd 2018 among a sample of 963 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of British Columbia.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and have not been sponsored by any third-party organization.

The sampling frame for the survey was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from commerical available sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. In each case, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. The previous statement also applies to the second survey except the survey was conducted over one day. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www. mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and region.

The margin of error is +/- 3.15% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsamples.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.21%, Females: +/- 4.77%, 18-34 age group: +/- 8%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.83%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.77%, 65+ age group: +/- 5.49%, Greater Vancouver: +/- 4.84%, Vancouver Island: +/- 7.45%, Rest of British Columbia: +/- 5.02%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.