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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 8TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM PST

UltraPoll - British
Columbia Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
Electoral Reform Referendum Quetion
8th November 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on a With 20 years of political experience in all
survey conducted between October 31st three levels of government, President and CEO
to November 2nd 2018 among a sample of Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
963 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in international public affairs.
British Columbia. The survey was conducted
using automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict
Research and was not sponsored by a third a Liberal majority government in the 2015
party. federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
The sampling frame was derived from both elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
a national telephone directory compiled special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
by Mainstreet Research from commerical a member of the World Association for Public
available sources and random digit dialing. Opinion Research and meets international and
The part of the survey that dialed from the Canadian publication standards.
directory was conducted as a stratified dial
of three regions in British Columbia; Greater CONTACT INFORMATION
Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the rest of In Ottawa:
British Columbia. In the case of random digit Quito Maggi, President
dials, respondents were asked the additional quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
question of what region of the country they
resided in. In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
3.15% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
Find us online at:
(full methodology appears at the end of this www.mainstreetresearch.ca
report) twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
ELECTORAL REFORM REFERENDUM A DEAD HEAT, LIBERALS AND NDP TIED

8 November 2018 (Vancouver, BC) – The BC Liberals take a narrow lead over the NDP while the
referendum on electoral reform is a dead heat.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 963 British Columbians between October 31st to November 2nd 2018. The
poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.15% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The story right now in BC politics is the referendum on electoral reform”, said Quito Maggi, President
and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This is shaping up to be the closest referendum in BC history and
its outcome is far from certain.”

50.5% of respondents say that they will vote for the existing first past the post system, while 49.5%
said that they would vote for a proportional representation system.

“The referendum could go either way especially as less than 1% of eligible voters have cast their
votes so far,” continued Maggi. “One thing to note is that there is a significant age gap in support for
electoral reform.”

62% of respondents between the ages of 18 to 34 say they will vote for PR, while the same amount
of respondents over the age of 65 say they will vote for the existing system.

The poll also found that the BC Liberals have widened their lead slightly over the NDP.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson lead with 33.9%, but the
governing NDP led by John Horgan follow closely with 32.3% of support. The BC Green Party with
Andrew Weaver at the helm have 18.2%.

“The slight dip for the NDP is likely due to an uptick of support for the Greens,” said Maggi. “That said,
the NDP and the BC Liberals remain in a statistical tie.”

The poll also asked favourability ratings for four party leaders and found that only Premier Horgan
has a net positive favourability rating.

“This is a bright spot in these findings for the NDP,” continued Maggi. “Horgan has the highest
favourability rating out of the four major party leaders.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

12.8%

2.2% 28.6%

11.1%

All Voters

16.1%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
29.2%

8.2%
3%
1.3%
12.6%
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
10.2%
31.5%
Another Party Undecided
32.3%

18.2% All Voters
14.6% Decided and Leaning Voters

34.2%
33.9%

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
Another Party Undecided
Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

32.3%

33.9%

18.2%
All

12.6%

3%

32.5%
Vancouver CMA

36.5%

18%

9.4%

3.5%

37.4%
Vancouver Island

28.7%

23.3%

9.4%

1.1%

28.8%

32.2%
BC Interior

15.5%

20.3%

3.2%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
ohn Horgan Andrew Wilkinson

9.5%
19% 18.2%

32.8%

26.4%

John Horgan Andrew Wilkinson

23.6%

39.1%
ndrew Weaver John Horgan Scott Anderson
31.3%

9.5% 7.3%
Favourable 14.9% Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar

24.7%
13.7%
32.8%

38.8%

26.4%

Andrew Weaver John Horgan Scott Anderson

31.6%

28.6%
40.2%
31.3%

Favourable Unfavourable NotFavourable
Sure Unfavourable
Not Familiar Not Sure
Favourable Not Familiar
Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
As you might know, there is a referendum occurring right now
where British Columbians are being asked to choose which
electoral system they want to see used in provincial elections.
Which system should British Columbia use for provincial
elections?

50.5% 49.5%
Preferred electoral system
50.5% 49.5%
Preferred electoral system

A Proportional Representation Voting System

The Current First Past the Post Voting System
A Proportional Representation Voting System

The Current First Past the Post Voting System
If British Columbia adopts a proportional
representation voting system, which of the
following voting systems do you prefer?
(only asked of respondents who indicated that they would be voting for a proportional
representative system)

17%

17%

38.2%

38.2%

Preferred proportional system
Preferred proportional system

44.8%
44.8%

Dual Member proportional Mixed Member proportional

Rural-Urban Proportional
Dual Member proportional Mixed Member proportional

Rural-Urban Proportional
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 28.6% 27.5% 29.7% 32.3% 25.7% 26.3% 30.5% 28.5% 35.4% 24.8%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 29.2% 33.8% 24.8% 23.2% 28.7% 30% 36.4% 31.4% 24.1% 28.4%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 16.1% 12.7% 19.5% 17.1% 19.5% 14.7% 12.8% 16.1% 20.7% 13.6%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 11.1% 12% 10.2% 13% 11.1% 10.5% 9.3% 8% 8.9% 17.8%
Another Party 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% 1.6% 3.9% 1.8% 1.3% 2.8% 1.1% 1.6%
Undecided 12.8% 11.2% 14.2% 12.7% 11% 16.7% 9.7% 13.1% 9.7% 13.9%
Unweighted Frequency 963 541 422 150 206 288 319 409 173 381
Weighted Frequency 963 474 489 259 234 266 203 507 170 286

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 30.6% 29.6% 31.7% 34.2% 27.7% 28.9% 31.8% 30.6% 36.6% 27.3%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 32.1% 37.1% 27.2% 28.2% 30.1% 33.1% 37.9% 34.2% 28.4% 30.4%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 17.3% 13.4% 21% 17.7% 20.2% 16.6% 14.1% 16.8% 22.9% 14.7%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 12% 12.1% 11.8% 13.5% 11.8% 11.7% 10.6% 8.8% 9.2% 19.3%
Another Party 2.8% 3.5% 2.2% 2.9% 4.7% 2.1% 1.6% 3.3% 1.1% 3%
Undecided 5.2% 4.3% 6.1% 3.4% 5.4% 7.6% 4% 6.3% 1.8% 5.3%
Unweighted Frequency 963 541 422 150 206 288 319 409 173 381
Weighted Frequency 963 474 489 259 234 266 203 507 170 286

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 32.3% 31% 33.5% 35.4% 29.3% 31.2% 33.2% 32.5% 37.4% 28.8%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 33.9% 38.8% 29% 29.2% 31.8% 35.9% 39.5% 36.5% 28.7% 32.2%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 18.2% 13.9% 22.4% 18.4% 21.4% 18% 14.7% 18% 23.3% 15.5%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 14% 12.5% 12.6% 11% 9.4% 9.4% 20.3%
Another Party 3% 3.7% 2.4% 3.1% 5% 2.3% 1.7% 3.5% 1.1% 3.2%
Unweighted Frequency 915 519 396 144 196 268 307 383 170 362
Weighted Frequency 915 450 464 246 223 223 193 482 162 272
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 32.8% 31.4% 34.2% 33.4% 32.6% 33.4% 31.6% 35% 40.7% 24.3%
Unfavourable 31.3% 35.5% 27.1% 24.3% 31% 36.4% 33.8% 27.1% 34.6% 36.6%
Not Familiar with John Horgan 9.5% 7.9% 11% 12.5% 9.4% 6.6% 9.4% 9.7% 7.5% 10.3%
Not Sure 26.4% 25.1% 27.8% 29.9% 26.9% 23.6% 25.2% 28.1% 17.2% 28.9%
Unweighted Frequency 963 541 422 150 206 288 319 409 173 381
Weighted Frequency 963 474 489 259 234 266 203 507 170 286

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Wilkinson?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 18.2% 21.3% 15.2% 14.3% 15.7% 20.8% 22.9% 17.8% 17.7% 19.3%
Unfavourable 23.6% 25% 22.3% 24.7% 23.8% 20.8% 25.7% 23.9% 27.4% 20.9%
Not Familiar with Andrew Wilkinson 19% 17.1% 20.9% 21.8% 19.6% 18.2% 15.9% 17.6% 22.6% 19.3%
Not Sure 39.1% 36.6% 41.6% 39.2% 40.9% 40.3% 35.4% 40.7% 32.2% 40.5%
Unweighted Frequency 963 541 422 150 206 288 319 409 173 381
Weighted Frequency 963 474 489 269 234 266 203 507 170 286

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Weaver?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 24.7% 23.3% 26.1% 22.8% 31.2% 22.4% 22.8% 22.5% 41.2% 18.9%
Unfavourable 28.6% 34.1% 23.6% 20.9% 28.4% 33.1% 33.4% 28.2% 26.4% 31.1%
Not Familiar with Andrew Weaver 14.9% 13.5% 16.4% 20.8% 13.3% 10.5% 15.2% 15% 5.8% 20.3%
Not Sure 31.6% 29.2% 33.9% 35.5% 27.1% 34% 28.6% 34.3% 26.6% 29.7%
Unweighted Frequency 963 541 422 150 206 288 319 409 173 381
Weighted Frequency 963 474 489 259 234 266 203 507 170 286

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Scott Anderson?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 7.3% 8.6% 6% 10.1% 6.5% 7.3% 4.7% 6.3% 5% 10.5%
Unfavourable 13.7% 15.8% 11.6% 14% 12.6% 13.9% 14.3% 13.3% 19.2% 11.2%
Not Familiar with Scott Anderson 38.8% 35.6% 41.9% 35.7% 42.5% 36.9% 41% 38.9% 38.1% 39%
Not Sure 40.2% 40% 40.4% 40.1% 38.5% 42% 40% 41.5% 37.7% 39.4%
Unweighted Frequency 963 541 422 150 206 288 319 409 173 381
Weighted Frequency 963 474 489 259 234 266 203 507 170 286

Do you think there will be an election next month?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
Yes 34.1% 34.5% 33.8% 36% 35.8% 34.7% 29% 34.3% 39.6% 30.5%
No 43.2% 45.3% 41.1% 34.5% 38.6% 50.4% 50% 45.7% 35.1% 45.6%
Not Sure 22.7% 20.2% 25.1% 29.5% 25.6% 14.9% 21% 20% 25.3% 23.9%
Unweighted Frequency 933 518 415 122 184 252 375 350 223 360
Weighted Frequency 933 459 474 251 227 258 197 355 223 356
As you might know, there is a referendum occurring right now where British
Columbians are being asked to choose which electoral system they want to see used
in provincial elections. Which system should British Columbia use for provincial
elections?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
A Proportional Representation Voting System 49.5% 46.8% 52.2% 61.9% 49.3% 46.6% 37.9% 50.1% 52.7% 46.7%
The Current First Past the Post Voting System 50.5% 53.2% 47.8% 38.1% 50.7% 53.4% 62.1% 49.9% 47.3% 53.3%
Unweighted Frequency 963 541 422 150 206 288 319 409 173 381
Weighted Frequency 963 474 489 259 234 266 203 507 170 286

If British Columbia adopts a proportional representation voting system, which of the
following voting systems do you prefer?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Dual Member proportional 17% 18.9% 15.4% 9.8% 31.8% 14% 14.9% 17.4% 21.3% 13.5%
Mixed Member proportional 44.8% 45.4% 44.2% 44.6% 40.6% 45.3% 50.5% 50.4% 40.4% 37%
Rural-Urban Proportional 38.2% 35.7% 40.4% 45.6% 27.6% 40.7% 34.6% 32.2% 38.3% 49.5%
Unweighted Frequency 440 234 206 94 100 129 117 194 86 160
Weighted Frequency 440 222 255 160 115 124 77 254 90 133
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, Not sure
which party would you vote for? Not familiar with Andrew Weaver
British Columbia New Democratic Party led
by John Horgan Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Andrew opinion of Scott Anderson?
Wilkinson Favourable opinion
Green Party of British Columbia led by Unfavourable opinion
Andrew Weaver Not sure
British Columbia Conservative Party led by Not familiar with Scott Anderson
Scott Anderson
Another Party As you might know, there is a referendum
Undecided occurring right now where British
Columbians are being asked to choose
And which party are you leaning towards? which electoral system they want to see
(only asked of respondents who were used in provincial elections. Which system
undecided in previous question) should British Columbia use for provincial
British Columbia New Democratic Party led elections?
by John Horgan The current First Past the Post voting system
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Andrew A proportional representation voting system
Wilkinson
Green Party of British Columbia led by If British Columbia adopts a proportional
Andrew Weaver representation voting system, which of the
British Columbia Conservative Party led by following voting systems do you prefer?
Scott Anderson (only asked of respondents who chose a
Another Party proportional representation voting system)
Undecided Dual Member Proportional
Mixed Member Proportional
(the order of the next four questions were Rural–Urban Proportional
randomized)
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable What is your gender?
opinion of John Horgan? Male
Favourable opinion Female
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure What is your age group?
Not familiar with John Horgan 18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable 50 to 64 years of age
opinion of Andrew Wilkinson? 65 years of age or older
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Andrew Wilkinson

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Andrew Weaver?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 31st to
November 2nd 2018 among a sample of 963 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British
Columbia. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of British Columbia.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and have not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame for the survey was derived from both a national telephone directory
compiled by Mainstreet Research from commerical available sources and random digit
dialing. The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of Greater
Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they
resided in. In each case, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. The previous statement also applies to the
second survey except the survey was conducted over one day. Interviewing was also spread
as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016
Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for
weighting are age, gender, and region.

The margin of error is +/- 3.15% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in
each subsamples.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.21%, Females: +/- 4.77%,
18-34 age group: +/- 8%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.83%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.77%, 65+ age
group: +/- 5.49%, Greater Vancouver: +/- 4.84%, Vancouver Island: +/- 7.45%, Rest of British
Columbia: +/- 5.02%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.