You are on page 1of 11

POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 12TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM MST

UltraPoll - Alberta Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
Support for Calgary 2026 bid
12th November 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between November three levels of government, President and CEO
2nd and 3rd, 2018 among a sample of 896 Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
adults, 18 years of age or older, living in international public affairs.
Alberta. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from random was the only polling firm to correctly predict
digit dialing. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
Research and was not sponsored by a third elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
party. special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Opinion Research and meets international and
3.27% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Canadian publication standards.

(full methodology appears at the end of this CONTACT INFORMATION
report) In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
UCP MAINTAIN A WIDE LEAD OVER NDP; KENNEY POLLING BEHIND HIS
PARTY

12 November 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The United Conservative Party continues to hold a
significant lead over the governing NDP.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten
provincial polls. The poll surveyed 936 Albertans between November 2nd to 3rd. The poll
has a margin of error of +/- 3.27% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The needle has not moved much for either the UCP and NDP since we last polled in July,”
said Joseph Angolano, Vice President of Mainstreet Research. “The UCP still hold a large lead
over the NDP.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP led by Jason Kenney currently enjoy just over
54% support while the NDP have 29.1% support. The Alberta Party with Stephen Mandel at
the helm have 5.5%. The Liberals led by David Khan are at 5.2%, and the Greens have 2.7%
support. The new Freedom Conservative Party comes in with 2.5%.

“The Wildrose and the PCs garnered a total of 52% of the vote in the last election, and the
UCP today has 54.3%”, continued Angolano. “This indicates that UCP support is most likely
an aggregate of pre-existing support for the two former small-c conservative parties.”

The poll also found that Albertans have a positive view of Kenney compared to Notley. While
respondents have +14.3% net favourability rating of Kenney, Notley has a -20% rating.

“Even though Kenney is seen more favourably than Notley by Albertans, he is polling
considerably behind his party,” Angolano added, “This indicates that the UCP lead is likely
not driven by leader popularity.”

The poll also found that a 49.9% of Calgarians do not support an Olympics 2026 bid, with
10.8% saying that they are undecided.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial
All election
Voters were held today, which party would you
vote for?

9.8%

0.6%
2.3%
26.3%
4.7%

2.2%

4.1%

All Voters

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
49.9%
9.8%

0.6% 0.7%
2.3% 2.7%
5.5% 26.3%
NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
4.7% 2.5%

Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party Undecided
5.2% 29.1%
2.2%

4.1%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters

49.9%
54.3%

NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party Undecided
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

13.2%
16.3%

3.7% 31.3%

7.2%

45.4%

Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

31.1%
51.8%
David Khan

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure 7.4%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure

19.5%

41.6%

David Khan

Rachel Notley
Stephen Mandel Derek Fildebrandt
31.5%

13.2%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure 8.5%
14.7%
3.7% 31.3%

34.1%
37.2%

Rachel Notley
Stephen Mandel Derek Fildebrandt 33.2%
22.6%

51.8%

25.4% 24.2%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure
Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure
As you might know, Calgary residents will be voting on
whether Calgary should host the 2026 Olympic Winter Games.
Are you in favour or
opposed to Calgary hosting the Olympics?

11.1%

40.4%

Calgary respondents

48.4%

In favour Opposed Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 26.3% 21.6% 31% 32.9% 20.8% 25.2% 24.4% 26.4% 33.6% 19.2%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 49.9% 59.3% 40.5% 34.6% 58.2% 55.2% 57.6% 50.0% 41.1% 58.2%
Liberals led by David Khan 4.1% 2.7% 5.5% 4.6% 3.6% 2.8% 5.8% 4.6% 4.7% 2.8%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 3.6% 0.7% 2.2% 1.8% 3% 1.2% 2%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 4.7% 4.5% 4.9% 6.2% 5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% 7.1% 3.7%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 2.3% 1.3% 3.3% 3.3% 2.1% 2.3% 0.9% 1.4% 2.6% 3.5%
Another Party 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% - 1.6%
Undecided 9.8% 7.9% 11.8% 14.2% 8.5% 8.3% 5.7% 10.6% 9.7% 9%
Unweighted Frequency 896 549 347 184 285 287 140 264 258 374
Weighted Frequency 896 446 450 286 244 224 143 366 261 269

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 27.9% 23.5% 32.3% 34.9% 22.7% 26.4% 24.9% 28.50% 35% 20.1%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 52.4% 61.2% 43.6% 38.5% 59.5% 57.8% 59.6% 54% 42.9% 59.5%
Liberals led by David Khan 5% 3% 6.90% 6% 4.7% 2.8% 6.7% 5.4% 5.9% 3.5%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% 3.6% 0.9% 2.5% 2.3% 3% 1.5% 2.5%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 5.3% 5.1% 5.4% 6.9% 5.7% 3.8% 3.4% 4% 8.4% 3.9%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 2.5% 1.5% 3.6% 3.3% 2.1% 2.8% 1.3% 1.4% 3% 3.7%
Another Party 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% - 1.6%
Undecided 3.9% 2.7% 5.2% 6.3% 3.4% 3.2% 1.2% 3.4% 3.3% 5.3%
Unweighted Frequency 896 549 347 184 285 287 140 264 258 374
Weighted Frequency 896 446 450 286 244 224 143 366 261 269

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 29.1% 24.2% 34.1% 37.3% 23.5% 27.3% 25.2% 29.6% 36.4% 21.4%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 54.3% 62.9% 45.8% 40.9% 61.7% 59.7% 60.3% 55.5% 44.1% 62.6%
Liberals led by David Khan 5.2% 3.1% 7.3% 6.4% 4.9% 2.9% 6.9% 5.7% 6.1% 3.7%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 3.9% 0.9% 2.6% 2.3% 3.2% 1.5% 2.6%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 5.5% 5.3% 5.7% 7.4% 5.9% 3.9% 3.4% 4.2% 8.8% 4.2%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 2.7% 1.5% 3.8% 3.5% 2.2% 2.9% 1.3% 1.4% 3.1% 3.9%
Another Party 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% - 1.7%
Unweighted Frequency 864 533 331 172 275 279 138 257 250 357
Weighted Frequency 864 430 434 275 235 216 137 353 252 259
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 31.3% 28.9% 33.6% 35.7% 27.3% 33.7% 25.4% 32.5% 37.1% 24%
Unfavourable 51.8% 56.1% 47.5% 47.3% 57.8% 50.5% 52.5% 47.5% 48.6% 60.8%
Not Familiar with Rachel Notley 3.7% 2% 5.3% 5.3% 2.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 5.1% 3.6%
Not sure 13.2% 12.9% 13.6% 11.7% 12.4% 12.3% 19.2% 17.3% 9.2% 11.7%
Unweighted Frequency 896 549 347 184 285 287 140 264 258 374
Weighted Frequency 896 446 450 286 244 224 143 366 261 269

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 45.4% 53.9% 37% 36% 50% 46.4% 55% 47.9% 34.3% 53%
Unfavourable 31.1% 26.6% 35.5% 32.7% 32.9% 30% 26.4% 31.4% 36.4% 25.5%
Not Familiar with Jason Kenney 7.2% 5.6% 8.7% 12.5% 4.5% 6% 2.8% 7.9% 6.5% 6.8%
Not sure 16.3% 13.8% 18.9% 18.8% 12.6% 17.6% 15.9% 12.8% 22.8% 14.9%
Unweighted Frequency 896 549 347 184 285 287 140 264 258 374
Weighted Frequency 896 446 450 286 244 224 143 366 261 269

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of David Khan?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 7.4% 7.7% 7.2% 8.6% 10% 6.3% 2.5% 9.3% 6.2% 6%
Unfavourable 19.5% 25.9% 13.0% 18.6% 23.1% 19.7% 14.6% 19.5% 18.1% 20.7%
Not Familiar with David Khan 31.5% 27.3% 35.6% 29% 25.6% 33.1% 44% 30.2% 33.6% 31.1%
Not sure 41.6% 39% 44.2% 43.9% 41.3% 40.9% 38.9% 41% 42.0% 42.1%
Unweighted Frequency 896 549 347 184 285 287 140 264 258 374
Weighted Frequency 896 446 450 286 244 224 143 366 261 269

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Stephen Mandel?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 15.1% 15.9% 9.2% 24.3% 12.9%
Unfavourable 22.6% 28% 17.3% 15.2% 26.7% 23.9% 28.6% 19.2% 27.7% 22.2%
Not Sure 25.4% 22.9% 27.9% 28.5% 22.8% 20.4% 31.6% 35.3% 11.6% 25.4%
Not Familiar with Stephen Mandel 37.2% 34.4% 40% 42.1% 36.3% 40.6% 23.8% 36.2% 36.4% 39.5%
Unweighted Frequency 896 549 347 184 285 287 140 264 258 374
Weighted Frequency 896 446 450 286 244 224 143 366 261 269

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Derek Fildebrandt?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 8.5% 11.8% 5.1% 13.2% 7.3% 5.9% 5% 9.6% 6.2% 9.1%
Unfavourable 33.2% 36.5% 29.9% 21.5% 39.5% 36.1% 41.2% 35.3% 33% 30.6%
Not familiar with Derek Fildebrandt 24.2% 21% 27.3% 23.3% 21.9% 25.5% 28.1% 24.9% 24% 23.5%
Not Sure 34.1% 30.6% 37.6% 42% 31.3% 32.6% 25.7% 30.2% 36.9% 36.8%
Unweighted Frequency 896 549 347 184 285 287 140 264 258 374
Weighted Frequency 896 446 450 286 244 224 143 366 261 269
As you might know, Calgary residents will be voting on whether Calgary should
host the 2026 Olympic Winter Games. Are you in favour or
opposed to Calgary hosting the Olympics?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
In favour 39.3% 35.6% 43% 35.5% 50.5% 37.8% 27.9%
Opposed 49.9% 52.6% 47.2% 56.9% 42.4% 48.9% 50.6%
Not sure 10.8% 11.7% 9.9% 7.6% 7.1% 13.2% 21.5%
Unweighted Frequency 264 173 91 48 102 81 33
Weighted Frequency 264 131 133 86 77 64 38
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
which party would you vote for? opinion of David Khan?
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel Favourable opinion
Notley Unfavourable opinion
United Conservative Party led by Jason Not sure
Kenney Not familiar with David Khan
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek opinion of Stephen Mandel?
Fildebrandt Favourable opinion
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Unfavourable opinion
Chagnon-Greyeyes Not sure
Another Party Not familiar with Stephen Mandel
Undecided
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
And which party are you leaning towards? opinion of Derek Fildebrandt?
(only asked of respondents who were Favourable opinion
undecided in previous question) Unfavourable opinion
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel Not sure
Notley Not familiar with Derek Fildebrandt
United Conservative Party led by Jason
Kenney As you might know, Calgary residents will
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan be voting on whether Calgary should host
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel the 2026 Olympic Winter Games? Are you
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek in favour or opposed to Calgary hosting the
Fildebrandt Olympics? (only asked of respondents who
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle live in Calgary)
Chagnon-Greyeyes In favour
Another Party Opposed
Undecided Not sure

(the order of the next five questions were What is your gender?
randomized) Male
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable Female
opinion of Rachel Notley?
Favourable opinion What is your age group?
Unfavourable opinion 18 to 34 years of age
Not sure 35 to 49 years of age
Not familiar with Rachel Notley 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Jason Kenney?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Jason Kenney
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between November 2nd
and 3rd, 2018 among a sample of 896 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population
of Alberta.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing and respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.27% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.18%, Females: +/- 5.26%,
18-34 age group: +/- 7.22%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.8%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.8%, 65+ age
group: +/- 8.28%, Calgary +/- 6.03%, Edmonton, 6.1%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 5.26%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.