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We can start to comprehend and shape the future only by understanding the interconnection and interdependencies between the different challenges and key drivers influencing the global environment. To stimulate the debate, the Young Global Leaders, a representative community of exceptional leaders under 40, have developed “Future Mapping for the Global Agenda”. This endeavour aims to map weak signals, key trends and their interrelation for a better understanding of how they will change the leadership environment in the coming decades. We would like to express our deepest appreciation to the Young Global Leaders who contributed to the project and to thank Roland Berger Strategy Consultants for their support. I hope "Future Mapping for the Global Agenda" provides you with a valuable tool to shape your own future. Klaus Schwab Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
A. INTRODUCTION B. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS 1. General trends 2. Health 3. Environment 4. Education 5. Development & poverty 6. Global governance & security 7. Values & society C. OPINIONS OF YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS 1. Collective Opinion: Results of Young Global Leader Survey 2. Individual Opinions: Young Global Leader Opinion Editorials 3. Weak signals APPENDIX 1. Life in 2030 2. Lessons from the past
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
A. INTRODUCTION 4 .
health. education. is composed of the world’s most eminent media leaders > YGLs engage in task force work under the themes of development & poverty. environment. which is chaired by Her Majesty Queen Rania of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. multistakeholder community of the world’s most extraordinary leaders aged 40 or younger who agree to dedicate a part of their time and energy to jointly work towards a better future > Each year. drawn from every region in the world and from a myriad of disciplines and sectors. as Young Global Leaders (YGLs) and invites them to join the community as active members > The Selection Committee. global governance & security. the World Economic Forum recognizes 200-300 exceptional individuals. as well as values & society 5 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .The Young Global Leaders community > The Forum of Young Global Leaders is a unique.
tendencies and risks which will shape the world in 2030. as well as a series of Opinion Editorials. as predicted by international institutions and experts from publicly available sources. it is useful to ask what the world will look like in a decade or two. which provide different perspectives and challenge existing assumptions. It is enhanced with thought pieces from YGLs. PURPOSE > To help us get our bearings in a complex and everchanging world. > During the YGL Summit 2007 in Dalian. Enjoy the presentation. we have developed “Future Mapping for the Global Agenda” as a basis to stimulate informed discussion among YGLs and other constituents of the World Economic Forum. including the results from a survey of the community. the Future Mapping initiative has been further developed as a key tool in helping YGLs understand major trends and risks so that they provide inputs for setting the global agenda. bridge knowledge gaps and create a shared understanding of the challenges ahead. > The presentation aims to stimulate discussion about the interconnectivity and interdependence of the various developments and issues. We hope it provokes thought. > In order to build on existing efforts. 6 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . “Future Mapping for the Global Agenda” presents a summary of major trends. especially the emerging trends.FUTURE MAPPING for the Global Agenda BACKGROUND > The discussions on "Future Mapping" were initiated at the Young Global Leaders Inaugural Summit in Zermatt in 2005 with the development of a "Vision 2020" scenario and the definition of the five key areas of concern for the future. but also the disruptive futures.
Use the Back button at the top of each page to jump back to the previously viewed page. including (1) a snapshot of how life might be in 2030. Future Mapping for the Global Agenda – Part C. and (2) lessons learned from the past which include humorous examples of failed predictions > Since the document includes animated charts and video material. it is best viewed on your computer > Use the right or left arrow key on your keyboard to page through the slides. consult the help section > For a printer-friendly version.8 MB) are also available 7 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . 329 KB) and the full version (193 pages.How to navigate this presentation > This presentation consists of four parts: – Part A (4 pages). (32 pages). 2. an executive summary (25 pages. including (1) the results of a survey of the community. The navigation menu at the bottom of the page allows you to move directly to the relevant slides. For more information. and use the mouse for animated content. and (2) OpEds by select YGLs – Appendix (6 pages). Annex of special features. (63 pages). Introduction – Part B. Collective Opinion of the Young Global Leaders.
Environment 4. Values & society 2007 2030 8 .B. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS 1. Education 5. Development & poverty 6. Health 3. General trends 2. Global governance & security 7.
Environment 4. Health 3. Education 5. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS 1. Values & society 2007 2030 9 . Global governance & security 7. Development & poverty 6.B. General trends 2.
GLOBAL FLOWS: The flows of people. capital. Characterized by increased sophistication and greater exchange © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3. POPULATION: The world population growth will slow but regions will differ or decline. learningbased and have a greater focus on corporate responsibility 4. INNOVATIONS: Current technological developments can be extrapolated into life-changing innovations of the future 10 . and knowledge are changing in surprising ways 5. ECONOMIES: The global economy will grow significantly. natural resources. CORPORATIONS: Companies will become more global. shift to the East and toward services.OVERVIEW: Key trends in selected general areas 1. networked. Populations will age rapidly with increased shifts to urban areas 2.
By 2030… 5 GETTING OLDER Since life expectancy will continue to increase… 70 80 Urban 90 population [%] Bubble size = Population 2030 2007 Sources: United Nations Population Division.1.a. population growth will… NORTH AMERICA CHINA CHINA EUROPE JAPAN LATIN AMERICA 3 TURNING NEGATIVE While populations in developing countries… 4 INTO THE CITIES Rural-urban migration is speeding up. Populations will age rapidly with increased shifts to urban areas Population growth [% p. City Mayors 2030 11 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants INDIA .] 3 2 1 0 -1 20 30 40 50 60 Bubble size = Population 2007 1 MORE PEOPLE In the next 23 years. the world population will… AFRICA 2 SLOWING PACE Around the world. POPULATION: The world population growth will slow but regions will differ or decline.
Populations in the US and the UK will continue to grow until after 2030.5 billion today. and Italy are already losing population today. India’s population will be growing four times faster than China’s.) until 2030.3 billion. China (1. population growth will slow down further (see chart).75% per year in 2030. Having peaked with over 2% annual growth in the late 1960s. Germany.14% p. 86% or 7. In terms of population. With an increase of 1. the United States (366 million). it has dropped to around 1% today and will decline further to 0.458 billion). up 26% from 6. Africa will only see a minimal slowdown in terms of population growth.POPULATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE PEOPLE In the next 23 years. the top 5 countries in 2030 will be India (1. While populations in developing countries will continue growing until after 2050. Indonesia (279 million).1 billion people. By then. Countries like Japan. will be living in developing or emerging countries. India will overtake China in 2025. By 2030. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 SLOWING PACE Around the world. and Pakistan (240 million). their populations will have dropped to 1980s levels.1% or 70 million people per year.6 billion today.a. up from 5. while population growth in China will have practically come to a halt by 2030. However. the developing world will grow about eight times faster than industrialized countries (0. By then. there are vast regional differences: Over the next 23 years.505 billion). while Russia will lose more than 20 million inhabitants between now and 2030. the world population will balloon to 8. 12 3 TURNING NEGATIVE . the turning point in the developed world will be reached by 2030. Europe’s population will already be shrinking by 2010.
Lagos (33.1% of the world’s population. Over 90% of urban population growth is taking place in developing countries. but cities with half a million inhabitants. it will move up from 28. 4. while the developing world will see an increase of 6.1 million).7 million). In 2030.1 on average in 2030. mainly in Asia. Asians will be on average five years younger than North Americans and ten years younger than Europeans. Delhi (37. the median age will also rise.0 in 2030.7. or 50%).POPULATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 4 INTO THE CITIES Rural-urban migration is speeding up. with 52. Mumbai (32. it will increase by 5. In the developed world.9 billion people.2 billion people. By 2030. Japan will have the oldest population. Globally. 13 .7 years. The largest cities in 2030 are Tokyo (38.5 years to 44. and Dhaka (32. The fastest-growing cities are not the mega-cities (>10 million inhabitants). to 32. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 5 GETTING OLDER Since life expectancy will continue to increase (see "Health" section). while Sub-Saharan Africa will have the youngest average age with 21.4 million).2 in 2030.7 million).3 million). or 60. will live in cities (in 2007: 3.0 today to 34.1 in 2030.
and Germany have the largest… 2 CONTINUING GROWTH Overall. the world economy will continue growing at … 3 TOWARDS SERVICES Despite the necessity to feed ever more people… Services 85 [% of GDP] 4 PRODUCTIVITY GAINS Almost all economies will see continuing productivity… 5 MORE EXCHANGE Global trade volumes will increase dramatically… © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 75 Bubble size = Real GDP 2030 2007 Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit.2. shift to the East and toward services. the US. ECONOMIES: The global economy will grow significantly.a. TNS Infratest 2030 14 . Characterized by increased sophistication/greater exchange GDP growth [% p.] 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 35 45 55 65 Bubble size = Real GDP 2007 CHINA AFRICA LATIN AMERICA GERMANY US JAPAN INDIA 1 SHIFTING POWERS Today. Japan.
which will take third place. In mature economies like the US and Japan. Korea. with Europe and Japan significantly behind. the agricultural sector will continue to shrink to below 1% of GDP and less than 3% of employees in developed economies. Very dynamic economies can also be found in Pakistan. 15 . and Germany have the largest economies. the world economy will continue growing at around 3% per year.ECONOMIES: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 SHIFTING POWERS Today. the no. Bangladesh. 3 TOWARDS SERVICES Despite the necessity to feed ever more people and also provide crops for energy biomass. India. Russia. It will be 50% larger than the US. Among the largest economies. and Indonesia will dominate. Germany. with the Western hemisphere a clear second. But China. followed by China (+243%) and Indonesia (+199%). the UK and France will not even be one tenth of China’s size. the increase will be minimal. and twice the size of India’s. meaning that the gross domestic product will. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 CONTINUING GROWTH Overall. Jordan. Measured in purchasing power parities. Japan. Vietnam. Among today’s industrialized nations. While the share of industry will remain more or less the same. and will drop far below the current 50% in some Sub-Saharan countries. China will have the largest economy by far in 2030. the US has the highest growth rates. Japan. and other developing countries will move quickly toward economic sophistication and a higher share of services. Brazil. 2 economy. almost double over the next 23 years. Today’s triad domination will be replaced by five Asian powerhouses: China. India. India will be fastestgrowing (+272% in 23 years). On their own. in real terms. the US. and the Maghreb. the services sector will continue to grow almost everywhere.
Notable exceptions are India. There is no consensus as to whether the world is headed toward more liberalised or more protected markets. which will see a 2.7% in 2030. Kenya. and between 3 and 6 % in emerging economies. The intensity and regional scope of trade will depend significantly on the extent of liberalisation and protectionism in some regions over the next 23 years. 16 . with exports of goods and services rising from USD 13.6 billion today to USD 50. Productivity is currently increasing between 1 and 2% per year in developed economies. Over the next 23 years. with almost all major countries achieving productivity rates between 1. Pakistan. the differences will become smaller.2 and 1. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 5 MORE EXCHANGE Global trade volumes will increase dramatically between now and 2030.ECONOMIES: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 4 PRODUCTIVITY GAINS Almost all economies will see continuing productivity gains.5% annual productivity increase. and Korea.5 billion in 2030.
networked. learning-based and have a greater focus on corporate responsibility Global footprint 1 INCREASINGLY GLOBAL FOOTPRINT Over the next 23 years. … 2 MORE NETWORKS AND FLEXIBILITY Between today and 2030 … 3 INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO STAY INDEPENDENT Over the next 23 years. Horizon 2020. it will … 4 BECOMING LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS Companies of all sizes and … 5 TOWARD CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY Companies will be more … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Networks / Flexibility No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period 2007 Sources: UNCTAD. DB Research 2030 17 .3. CORPORATIONS: Companies will become more global.
Increasingly IT. value chains and national borders will become standard by 2030. with regard to both organization and processes. new business practices.CORPORATIONS: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 INCREASINGLY GLOBAL FOOTPRINT Over the next 23 years. reaching across sectors. companies will become more global. and employees will increasingly work across countries in virtual teams. no matter where they are in the world. organizational structures and processes will be adapted at a faster rate. Today. There is no consensus as to whether the corporate structures will become more centralized or decentralized in the next 23 years. Swinging between the extremes and markedly different company structures and forms of cooperation are likely. and to exploit regional differences in costs and skills. Because of the need to be present in leading markets. the number of corporations with a significant portion of assets. and business life cycles. is still relatively small. nor do experts agree about the balance of insourcing and outsourcing. companies will become increasingly flexible. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 MORE NETWORKS AND FLEXIBILITY 18 . as measured by the Transnationality Index (TNI). sales. Between today and 2030.and robot-supported processes will allow for greater flexibility of workflows. but not in all major regions of the world. and employees abroad. as will be joint projects with competitors. A large majority of companies – including multinational corporations – still operates primarily in their home market and in one or two foreign countries. To meet shifting customer demands and to react to technological innovations. most companies will move further toward having a truly global footprint. Active engagement in multiple networks.
Corporate management will spend an increasing amount of their time finding ways to achieve critical size for both market success and staying independent. More companies will have their own corporate campuses. People over 50 are a major focus. since they will be seen as a resource that can't be ignored any longer. helping to mitigate risk. focusing particularly on environmentally and socially responsible and sustainable behavior. train and retain staff. however. 5 TOWARD CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY Companies will be more likely to align their actions with demands from all shareholders. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) will become a top priority on management's agenda in large and small companies alike. demanding to be cared about and developed. companies will be looking for new ways to recruit. 19 . but also to create business. There is. investors. Consumers. The perception that employees are major assets. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 BECOMING LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS Companies of all sizes and in all sectors will increasingly try to improve the skills of their employees and keep them constantly learning. will be increasingly translated into action. management decisions and performance. it will become increasingly difficult for almost any company to stay independent. Especially in countries where population is not only aging but also shrinking. and (potential) employees will increasingly make their decisions based on an assessment of a company's position in and attitude to society. private equity and hedge funds looking for the best investment opportunities around the world will put increasing pressure on companies. Large government funds.CORPORATIONS: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO STAY INDEPENDENT Over the next 23 years. challenging the traditional role of management as those who define strategy. cultivate close ties with schools and universities and cooperate with research institutes. They will buy corporations and increasingly influence corporate governance. no consensus as to whether this will also translate into a more long-term perspective.
future think tanks 20 . natural resources.4. and knowledge are changing in surprising ways PEOPLE $ $ $ $ NATURAL RESOURCES © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants CAPITAL BRAIN Sources: United Nations. GLOBAL FLOWS: The flows of people. capital. UNCTAD.
recogficial nition eyes doors Memory enhancement in humans Space factories Video wallpaper 2007 Sources: Nowandnext Innovation Timeline. BT Technology Timeline 2030 21 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Virtual Holidays .5. INNOVATIONS: Current technological developments can be extrapolated into life-changing innovations of the future Mood-sensitive home decor Location devices implanted into pets Dream Machines Road reservation system Robotic surgery Computers that write most of their own software Full voice interaction with PC Synthetic bacteria Fully autopiloted cars Holographic TV Childcare robots Genebased diets 3D home printers Anti-noise technology in gardens Accelerated schooling Selfrepairing roads Sleep surrogates Single global currency Intelligent cosmetics Wearable computer FaceArti.
Angel Not as Flat as It May Seem Goldman. Erwann The New Risk Architecture Tilman. Leo The Big Unknown 22 . Neal Visual Summary Michel-Kerjan.LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – GENERAL TRENDS: Survey results and opinion editorials SURVEY RESULTS Most important events / discoveries since 1980 Most important trends between now and 2030 Power to influence global trends Division of power in 2030 Statement about the future Weak signals OPINION EDITORIALS Bartiromo. Maria China And India: A Mixed Picture Bremmer. Ian Globalization and a World of Risk © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Cabrera.
per capita. Cairo. Doha Round 23 .FOR FURTHER READING – GENERAL TRENDS: Key sources. 1994 > World Trade Organization. WTO. FDI (flows. indicators. and actors MOST IMPORTANT SOURCES > UNDP: World Population Prospects – The 2006 Revision Population Database > UNFPA: State Of World Population 2007 – Unleashing the potential of urban growth > Economist Intelligence Unit. EIU ($) > UNCTAD: World Investment Reports MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS > Population (total number. UNFPA > International Conference on Population and Development. ICPD. %) > Productivity gains (%) > Foreign direct investment. UNPD © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > United Nations Population Fund. GDP (in real currency. in purchasing power parity. %) > Share of rural / urban population (%) > Median age (years) > Gross domestic product. stocks) KEY GOVERNING ACTORS AND AGREEMENTS > United Nations Population Division.
Values & society 2007 2030 24 .B. General trends 2. Education 5. Development & poverty 6. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS 1. Global governance & security 7. Health 3. Environment 4.
and vaccinations will ensure better health. LIFE EXPECTANCY: We will all live longer and the gender gap will narrow. More personalized medicines will offer tailor-made care 25 . MEDICINES: New medical technologies. though significant regional differences will emerge 2. DISEASES: There will be a transition from infectious to chronic diseases. CAUSES OF DEATH: The number of deaths from non-communicable diseases and injuries will increase © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3.OVERVIEW: Key trends in health 1. MEDICAL SERVICES: Healthcare will become increasingly expensive with a widening gap between rich and poor and a serious deficit of health workers 5. substances. but HIV/AIDS will remain a notable exception 4.
1. though significant regional differences will emerge Life expectancy [years] 90 1 LONGER LIVES People will live longer and longer. average… 2 CONVERGING GENDER GAP Overall and in every… 3 UP AGAIN FROM THE BOTTOM In 16 of the world's least… Developing countries © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 80 Emerging countries Developed countries 70 60 50 2 Women outliving men 8 [years] 4 6 Bubble size = Population 2030 4 OLDER MOTHERS While today. fertility rates are highest among … 5 GETTING VERY OLD The number of very old people (80+ years) will… Bubble size = Population 2007 2007 Source: United Nations 2030 26 . Today. LIFE EXPECTANCY: We will all live longer and the gender gap will narrow.
reaching 72.0) following. for example. ranging between less than 40 years in some Sub-Saharan states and 82. life expectancy will grow by around 5 years on the global level. Zimbabwe and other countries are similar. with an average life expectancy at birth of 85. it will rise again by 13 years. with women in almost all countries living 4 to 6 years longer than men. By 2030. In Botswana.1) and developed regions (4. the development of life expectancy is positive again for the more than 300 million people living in those countries.6 years in Japan. the gap is between 5 and 8 years. Overall and in every country.7 years. with emerging countries (6. these regional differences will be less dramatic. reaching the level of the late 1970s in 2030.3 years. while in developed nations. women in the developing world live between 1 and 3 years longer than men in the same countries. life expectancy has – primarily because of the spread of HIV/AIDS – decreased dramatically over the past three decades. life expectancy has gone down by 17 years between 1990 and 2005 to 46 years today. however. Increases are fastest in the least developed countries (8. however. Figures for South Africa.2 years on average. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 CONVERGING GENDER GAP 3 UP AGAIN FROM THE BOTTOM In 16 of the world's least developed countries. Today. Top of the list will continue to be Japan in 2030.4 years). Today. By 2030. women live longer than men. During the next 23 years.LIFE EXPECTANCY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 LONGER LIVES People will live longer and longer. 27 . The gap between male and female life expectancy is however very different and changing: Today. average global life expectancy is at 67.
with significant absolute and relative increases among 30. it will be the next higher age group of 25. The number of very old people (80+ years) will triple over the next 23 years. fertility rates are highest among 20.LIFE EXPECTANCY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 4 OLDER MOTHERS While today.to 24-year-old women. Fertility rates of women younger than 20 and older than 40 will decline over the next 23 years in almost all regions of the world.to 29-year-old women that will have the most births in 2030. At 87 million today. In Europe. the figure will rise to 246 million in 2030. Almost 60% of those will be living in Asia. many more will populate the world in the decades to come. the age at which women give birth is even higher. 28 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 5 GETTING VERY OLD .to 40-year-olds. and due to the rising life expectancy at birth. Millions of people born today will live through the 21st century and see the advent of the 22nd.
heart… 3 MORE DEATHS CAUSED BY INJURY People don't die only from… 4 DYING LATER At present.2. PLoS Medicine 2030 29 . about 57 million people die every year… 5 LOWER INFANT MORTALITY The number of infant … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 2007 15 10 Cancers Heart disease Stroke HIV/AIDS Road traffic accidents Tuberculosis 20 2030 30 25 Year 35 2007 Sources: World Health Organization. CAUSES OF DEATH: The number of deaths from non-communicable diseases and injuries will increase Global deaths [m] 12 1 MORE DEATHS FROM NONCOMMUNICABLE DISEASES More than two thirds… 2 CANCER AND AIDS ON THE RISE In 2030. cancer.
from 18 million today to 16. By 2030. and diabetes in 2030. and this number will increase by 40% by 2030. self-inflicted deaths and violence. heart diseases. Other causes of death that are becoming more important include diabetes. And 6. pulmonary diseases. cancer and HIV/AIDS. especially in developing countries.1million in 2030. which will grow dramatically (see below). up 129% from 2. By then.CAUSES OF DEATH: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 1 MORE DEATHS FROM NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES More than two thirds (70%) of all people will die from non-communicable diseases like cancer.8 million people will die from cancer. there will be 47 million annual deaths from non-communicable diseases in 2030. will rise dramatically by 2030. In total numbers. Two diseases however.5 million or 9% of all deaths are caused by injury. On the other hand. A notable exception is HIV/AIDS. there will be more deaths caused by road traffic accidents.4 million people will die from HIV/AIDS in 2030. and stroke will continue to be the most significant causes of death worldwide. but a growing number of deaths will be caused by injuries from road traffic accidents. Today. In 2030. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 CANCER AND AIDS ON THE RISE 3 MORE DEATHS CAUSED BY INJURY People don't die only from diseases. 8 cause of death worldwide. up 38% from 7. 30 . up 75% to 2. 10. the share is only 61%. and chronic respiratory diseases. 5. tuberculosis or other infections are on the way down.5 million in 2030. deaths from communicable diseases like malaria. Today. up 9 million from 38 million today. Most notably. heart diseases. road traffic accidents will be the no.8 million today. cancer.8 million today.
800 children are born with HIV every day. Nevertheless. 31 . © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 5 LOWER INFANT MORTALITY The number of infant deaths per 1. there will be a significant shift in the age structure of people who die. this number will increase to 75 million in 2030. 29% among adults aged 15 to 59. combined with malnutrition. and 62%.000 live births was 148 fifty years ago. and 53% are among people aged 60 and older. Today. there will still be 5 million deaths among children under five in 2030. In other words.CAUSES OF DEATH: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 4 DYING LATER At present. 97% of them in the developing world. about 57 million people die every year. is 51 today and will shrink further to 27 in 2030. Moreover. the respective proportions will have changed to 9%. and most of them due to infectious diseases such as pneumonia and diarrhea. with this number expected to increase. 1. Due to population growth. 29%. the risk of death for children younger than 5 will fall by more than 40% in the next 23 years. meaning that there will be far fewer children dying while almost two-thirds of all deaths will be people older than 60. 19% of all deaths are among children. By 2030 in contrast.
DISEASES: There will be a transition from infectious to chronic diseases. a high-fat diet. PLoS Medicine 2030 32 . but HIV/AIDS will remain a notable exception Major diseases10 causes of disability (ranking) and 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2007 2030 HIV/AIDS Depressive disorders Heart disease Road traffic accidents Perinatal conditions Cerebrovascular disease COPD ('smoker's lung') 1 EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION The world is experiencing… 2 SHRINKING BURDEN OF DISEASE Global "disability-adjusted… 3 HIV/AIDS AND DEPRESSION IN THE LEAD The list of major illnesses… 4 INCREASINGLY UNHEALTHY LIFESTYLES Smoking. … 5 INCREASING EFFORT TO KICK UNHEALTHY HABITS Smoking is already either… © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Year 2007 Sources: World Health Organization.3.
DISEASES: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 1 EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION The world is experiencing an epidemiologic transition: from infectious disease and acute illness (HIV/AIDS. diabetes). this is less true for the developing world. While developed countries have already undergone this transition. Hearing loss will be among the top ten causes of burden of disease in highand middle-income countries. this means that the burden of disease will shrink by 19% for each individual over the next 23 years. With the transition. high-fat diet. a measure used to compare the burden of diseases. Perinatal conditions. 3) on the global scale.54 billion in 2030. HIV/AIDS will be at the top (today: No. Adjusted for the growing population. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 SHRINKING BURDEN OF DISEASE Global "disability-adjusted life years". the rest of the world is to follow within the next 23 years.48 billion today to 1. cancer. 3 HIV/AIDS AND DEPRESSION IN THE LEAD The list of major illnesses will look completely different in 2030. and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias and alcohol-use disorders will be among the top four causes of disease in high-income countries in 2030. with depression and heart disease following. the risk factors of smoking. with significant regional variation. will in total increase very slightly from 1. malaria. obesity and lack of exercise will also increase in developing countries. however. tuberculosis) to chronic disease and degenerative illness (heart diseases. 33 . lower respiratory infections and also tuberculosis and malaria will become much less important as global illnesses over the next 23 years – however.
up from nearly 5 million today. Advertisements for cigarettes and alcohol and sponsorship is restricted in many countries. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 5 INCREASING EFFORT TO KICK UNHEALTHY HABITS Smoking is already either heavily taxed – in order to recover the cost placed on national health systems by tobaccorelated illnesses – or even banned in public places in over 40 countries. 34 . such as putting daily gym classes back on school timetables. diabetes. a high-fat diet.DISEASES: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 4 INCREASINGLY UNHEALTHY LIFESTYLES Smoking. high levels of under-nutrition and obesity will continue to co-exist depending on levels of prosperity. The number of people with diabetes will double to 266 million in 2030. California to New York. Globally. and lack of physical exercise will increase in many parts of the world over the next 23 years. This trend is moving from west to east (i.e. and smoking will kill 8. Ireland to France and Holland in 2008 via the UK in 2007) and shifting from inside-only bans to outdoor bans also.3 million people in 2030. and cancer. there will be regulations and incentives to fight obesity. leading to a rise of non-communicable diseases such as obesity. alcohol consumption. Similarly.
there are 59 million health workers… 4 MORE PRIVATE INITIATIVE Today. 56% of all health expenditure is public and… Year 35 5 MORE POWERFUL HEALTH PARTNERSHIPS Already today. average health… 2 WIDENING RICH-POOR GAP Difference between healthcare in rich and poor countries are… 17 12 7 Burundi World 3 LACK OF HEALTH WORKERS Worldwide. national statistics 2030 35 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .4. MEDICAL SERVICES: Healthcare will become increasingly expensive with a widening gap between rich and poor and a serious deficit of health workers Health expenditure [% of GDP] 22 United States 1 HIGHER COST OF HEALTHCARE At present. low income… 2 0 5 2007 15 10 20 2030 30 25 2007 Source: World Health Organization.
Worldwide. compared with USD 36 in Africa and Southeast Asia.170 per person on health. Differences between healthcare in rich and poor countries are huge today. there are 59 million health workers today. The lack of health workers is expected to rise further in developing countries. The WHO calculates that there is already a shortage of 4. with two-thirds of them (39 million) providing health services. midwives. 36 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 WIDENING RICH-POOR GAP 3 LACK OF HEALTH WORKERS . overall access to medical assistance will improve further (travel time to obtain medical services is 4x longer in Sub-Saharan Africa than in developed countries). Both figures are expected to rise. the other one-third being management and support workers. Total health expenditure. The OECD countries make up less than 20% of the world's population but spend 90% of the world's resources on health. health expenditure alone will account for 15% of GDP by 2020. nurses and support workers worldwide today. while health provision is not a problem in rich countries.7% of GDP globally. Provided that this development continues.3 million doctors. some countries like the US and Switzerland will spend more than one-fifth of their GDP on health by 2030.9% five years earlier. up from 7.3% of total public spending. The lack of health workers is most dramatic in developing countries and should increase by 139% in Africa and by 50% in Southeast Asia over the next years. compared with what would be necessary to meet basic health standards. While targeted health initiatives will manage to improve the basic level of medical care for the poor. and 14. average health expenditure is 8. with OECD countries spending an annual USD 3.1 trillion (2004) and up from 2. For OECD countries on average. today at USD 4. is expected to almost double over the next 23 years. particularly with regards to vaccine delivery programs.6 trillion ten years ago.MEDICAL SERVICES: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 HIGHER COST OF HEALTHCARE At present.
. e. experts predict that staying healthy and getting help when ill or injured will require much more private initiative in the future. Today.4 million lives by 2030. Other donors. These include the Global Fund to fight AIDS. they have launched a USD 1. low income countries benefit from large influxes of external resources earmarked for health through global health partnerships. While there is no consensus about whether the private or public side is growing faster (in terms of expenditure). Public healthcare systems will restrict their coverage to basic services.5 billion pilot program expected to save 5. also provide funds. Those initiatives and other new efforts will become very powerful to improve the global health situation over the next 23 years. Private insurance will continue to be a luxury of either high-income countries or high-income households in low-income countries. the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation plus 5 developed countries. with additional insurance or healthcare services to be paid for by the patient himself. In cooperation with GAVI. protecting children from pneumonia and meningitis. 56% of all health expenditure is public and 44% private. tuberculosis and malaria and the Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunization (GAVI). private health spending is overwhelmingly paid out-of-pocket.MEDICAL SERVICES: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 4 MORE PRIVATE INITIATIVE 5 MORE POWERFUL HEALTH PARTNERSHIPS Already today.g. 37 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Today. with levels of public healthcare expenditure rising in most countries.
.5. The latest… Salmonella vaccine Nanomachine technology Medicine to ease stomach cancer Multiple sclerosis vaccine Malaria vaccine 3 NEW MEDICINES Many new medicines will be developed over the next… 4 MORE PERSONALIZED MEDICINE Advances in genomics will. and vaccinations will ensure better health. substances. More personalized medicines will offer tailor-made care Medical innovations Childhood leukemia vaccine 1 NEW TECHNOLOGIES New technologies will help fight diseases. MEDICINES: New medical technologies. Year 35 5 NEW VACCINATIONS Vaccination against childhood leukemia… 0 2007 5 10 15 20 25 2030 30 2007 Source: World Health Organization 2030 38 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Medicine to ease diabetes 2 THERAPY CONVERGENCE Complementary and alternative medicine… ..
at home or even abroad (health tourism). 39 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants New technologies will help fight diseases. with new and more technologies in use.55% of GDP. Traditional Chinese medicine. this share will rise. due not least to a rising Asian population where some forms have been part of the medical mainstream for centuries. More and more medical practitioners will offer a mix of both. for example to clean arteries and to avoid certain kinds of brain and heart surgery. this is 6. in particular. 50% of American adults use CAM already today. to tissue density screening instruments to visualize cancer. More research funds will be channeled into the effectiveness of these treatments.MEDICINES: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 NEW TECHNOLOGIES 2 THERAPY CONVERGENCE Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is on the rise. There is also a growing trend of empowered patients making their treatment decisions. for example. is making inroads in the West.4% of public health expenditure or 0. Medical technology accounts only for a rather small fragment of total heath expenditure. . walk-in consultations. Portable quicklabs in the size of a credit card will enable doctors to instantly identify bacteria and viruses from a single drop of bodily fluid. However. The latest and most promising developments range from safer T-RAY (tera-hertz radiation) used for medical 3D imaging. for example in dentistry. and CAM is coming to many high streets for easy. to ward off ongoing skepticism from the evidenced-based medical (EBM) proponents. Nanomachine technology will be available by 2020. In the European Union. either by treating themselves or seeking treatments elsewhere.
e. are in development in the US today for type 1 diabetes. With polio eradication almost complete. therapy or preventative measure. The industry is thus likely to become heavily fragmented in the 23 years to come.000. Future super drugs will include medicines to ease neuropathic pain and hypertension. established to strengthen routine vaccinations and introduce new and under-used vaccines in countries with a per capita GDP of under USD 1. A Malaria Vaccine Roadmap has been designed to deliver an effective vaccine by 2025 with a first effective vaccine by 2015. Hundreds of tiny biotech companies. Since nearly 50% of all present blockbuster patents will expire by 2008 and there are few replacements on the horizon. as they move away from relying heavily on blockbuster products. designed to stimulate the immune system to fight existing diseases. Therapeutic vaccines. Today. i. the next likely target is measles.MEDICINES: Text behind animated chart (2/2) Many new medicines will be developed over the next 23 years. which extends through 2014. there will be major shifts in the market. The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization. Many pharmaceutical firms will focus on innovation and customerfocused approaches for a much smaller slice of patients. E. can lay claim to 67% of the drugs in clinical trials. Other vaccinations likely to exist in 2030 include serious respiratory infections. multiple sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis. coli and salmonella. while responsible for only 3% of the drug industry's total R&D spending. drugs with over USD 1 billion in sales per year. 4 MORE PERSONALIZED MEDICINE Advances in genomics will make 'personalized medicine' more important and powerful. is now entering its second phase of funding. stomach cancer and diabetes. 3 NEW MEDICINES 40 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . A growing share of such treatments use detailed information about a patient's genotype plus a patient's clinical data in order to select a medication. two cholesterol lowering compounds are leading the ranks of about 100 blockbuster drugs. 5 NEW VACCINATIONS Vaccination against childhood leukemia is very likely over the next decade.
Stronger Nation Zarur. Josef The Brave New World of Genetics and … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Salbi.LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – HEALTH: Survey results and opinion editorials SURVEY RESULTS Most pressing issues in 2030 Power to influence global trends Statements about the future Industry in which Young Global Leaders would invest half of their personal financial assets Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large amount of money Weak signals OPINION EDITORIALS Bishop. Andrey Trends in Human Health 41 . Matthew The Philanthropy Revolution Penninger. Zainab Stronger Women.
and actors MOST IMPORTANT SOURCES > WHO: World Health Report 2006 > WHO: 50 Facts – Global health situation and trends 1955-2025 > WHO: WHO Global InfoBase > PLoS Medicine: Projections of Global Mortality and Burdens of Disease > PWC: HealthCast 2020 – Creating a sustainable future MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS > Life expectancy (years) > Mortality and morbidity rates (units per 1. especially goals #5 and 6 42 .000 individuals) > Burden of disease (measured in disability-adjusted life years) > Health expenditure (% of GDP. indicators. % of public spending) > Prevalence of a disease (% of population.FOR FURTHER READING – HEALTH: Key sources. age group) > Density of doctors or health workers (units per 1. WHO > The World Bank © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > Millennium Development Goals. MDGs.000 individuals) KEY GOVERNING ACTORS AND AGREEMENTS > World Health Organization.
Health 3. General trends 2. Environment 4. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS 1. Global governance & security 7. Education 5.B. Values & society 2007 2030 43 . Development & poverty 6.
Continued fossil fuel dominance. Global agreements will be marked by economic incentives 44 . especially in Asia. despite widespread use of renewables and greener technologies © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3. ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY: More forests and grasslands will be converted to cropland. ENERGY: Energy consumption will grow. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions and more extreme weather 2. primarily for non-irrigation use. Rising number of species will become extinct 5. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: Environmental regulation will increase and become stricter. WATER: Water consumption will rise.OVERVIEW: Key trends in environment 1. CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERE: The earth’s temperature will increase and sea levels will rise. causing greater water scarcity and more conflicts 4.
Increase in greenhouse gas emissions and more extreme weather Average global temperature [degrees Celsius] 16 1 GETTING WARMER The average global temperature will rise by… 2 RISING SEA LEVEL Sea level will rise between 6 and 11 centimeters during… 3 INCREASING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Greenhouse gases (GHG)… 4 MORE EXTREME WEATHER More instances of extreme… 5 RISING COSTS Over the next 23 years. Stern Report 2030 45 .1. Energy Information Administration. CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERE: The earth’s temperature will increase & sea levels will rise. spending to keep the… © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 15 14 2007 2010 2010 2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Bubble size = Carbon dioxide emissions 2007 Sources: IPPC.
sea level has risen by 130 meters. both a result of global warming. with land temperatures rising about twice as fast as ocean temperatures.2 meters. projected global temperatures will be between 1. sea level would rise by 7. During the last Ice Age 18. Two processes are at work: melting polar ice and the expansion of sea water as oceans get warmer. average global temperature was 6 degrees lower than today. with most of the rise occurring 6.1 meters. Since the last Ice Age. 46 . not including possible contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice fields. By 2100.000 years ago. sea level was almost constant. Over the past 23 years.5 degrees Celsius between now and 2030.000 years ago. If the Antarctic icecap melts.4 degrees Celsius higher than today. an overall temperature increase of 0. sea level has risen about 3 millimeters per year. From 3. During the past 15 years.CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERE: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 GETTING WARMER The average global temperature will rise by 0.4 degrees Celsius has been measured.1 and 6. In the unlikely example of a complete meltdown of Greenland's icecap. sea level would rise by 61. the sea level is expected to rise between 19 and 58 centimeters. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 RISING SEA LEVEL Sea level will rise between 6 and 11 centimeters during the next 23 years.000 years ago to the start of the 19th century. Until 2100.5 to 1.
CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERE: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 INCREASING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide. more and more severe droughts. the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2). methane. and transportation fuels the largest emitters. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions accordingly – at least by 25% compared with today – would cost about 1% of global GDP. CO2 concentrations have been a constant 280 ppm for 10. To limit the temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius. GHGs have increased by 70%. spending to keep the climate and atmosphere intact will continue to rise. will rise from a current 383 parts per million (ppm) to over 430 ppm in 2030. more forest fires. tornados and hurricanes. climate change would cost between 5 and 20% of GDP every year unless drastic action is taken within the next 23 years. Because of system inertia. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 MORE EXTREME WEATHER 5 RISING COSTS Over the next 23 years. with higher carbon dioxide concentration levels also contributing to more destructive storms. Studies show that the increasing number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes over the past decades is directly linked to increasing temperatures. even without further emissions. there are very likely to be: a higher number and rising intensity of storms. Costs caused by further climate change. and more and longer heat waves. According to IPCC scenarios. however. industrial processing. and nitrous oxide will continue to rise until 2030. 47 . for example. More instances of extreme weather are expected as one result of climate change. the concentration of carbon emissions should be stabilized between 450 and 550 ppm. Over the past 35 years. with non-OECD countries' emissions doubling over the next 23 years. Over the next 23 years. including cyclones. more flooding. are predicted to be much higher than cost implied by preventative policies: According to the much-discussed Stern Report. Before industrialization. with power stations.000 years. emissions will be up to 90% higher in 2030 than today.
Institute of Energy Economics 2030 48 . Continued fossil fuel dominance. in Asia. despite widespread use of renewables and greener technologies Energy consumption [quadrillion Btu] 160 CHINA 1 GROWING ENERGY CONSUMPTION Global energy consumption… 2 SHIFT TO THE EAST The focus of global energy demand will shift to… 3 MORE RENEWABLES Energy from renewable resources such as wind… 4 MORE POLITICS National politics are expected to increasingly influence oil… 5 RISING ENERGY PRICES The price for oil and most other energies is expected… © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 120 80 40 0 2007 Bubble size = Population 2007 US RUSSIA INDIA AFRICA 2030 Bubble size = Population 2030 Year 2007 Source: International Energy Agency. esp.2. ENERGY: Energy consumption will grow.
49 .5% of total primary energy in 2030.2). OECD countries still account for 51. Russia (41. Changes are fastest in non-OECD Asia (including China and India) with an annual increase of more than 3%. while OECD countries' consumption will go up by only 0. The largest consumers in 2030 will be China (demanding 20. to 701.9) and Japan (25. while non-OECD countries will take the lead after 2010. and Central and South America will also have high growth rates at more than 2% per year. demanding 57. In other words: Over 70% of the increase in demand over the next 23 years will come from developing countries.4 quadrillion Btu). Africa.ENERGY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 GROWING ENERGY CONSUMPTION Global energy consumption will rise by 47% between now and 2030. The Middle East.8% per year. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 SHIFT TO THE EAST The focus of global energy demand will shift to developing countries.6 quadrillion Btu (British thermal units).2 today. followed by the US (131. China's demand will more than double between now and 2030. India (31.8% more energy will be consumed every year.4). Today. especially China. The transportation and commercial sectors will have the highest increase.6). with China alone accounting for 30%. up from 477.6% of global energy demand. while industrial and residential energy consumption rises at a slower pace. This means that 1.7% of the world's energy or 145.
9% of total energy demand in 2030. predictions vary and are volatile. Only 7% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves are in countries that allow multinational companies free reign. Use of coal and gas. the latter because developing countries increasingly switch to using modern commercial energy. sales. government subsidies will continue to determine price levels. Others have calculated a price of USD 105 (Goldman Sachs) or even USD 120 (HWWA) per barrel in 2030. plus hydropower and other renewables.0% today. However. Iraq. 50 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Energy from renewable resources such as wind. political influence is already strong. and the ways energy companies operate. up from 5. In countries such as Russia and Venezuela. their share will still be only 5. Iran. with Mexico. while 65% are in the hands of state-owned companies. The relative share of nuclear. water. and geothermal heat will almost double between now and 2030. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia among those countries where political factors are likely to further limit free market activities in the energy sector.ENERGY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 MORE RENEWABLES 4 MORE POLITICS National politics are expected to increasingly influence oil and gas exploration. offsetting the growing use of biomass as feedstock for biofuels production and for power and heat generation. biofuels. The International Energy Agency sees the price of crude oil falling from its current high back to USD 47 per barrel (159 liters) early in the next decade. With 947 mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) however. 5 RISING ENERGY PRICES The price for oil and most other energies is expected to rise over the next 23 years. and biomass energy will fall. and then rising by about 50% before 2030. oil. Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy for the decades to come. For many renewables. Gas and coal prices are expected to follow the trend in oil prices. production. sunlight. . will rise.
6 0. International Water Management Institute 2030 51 .800 1.3.5 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES CHINA US INDIA 0. WATER: Water consumption will rise. causing greater water scarcity and more conflicts Water consumption [km3] 1.600 1. primarily for non-irrigation use.400 1.000 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1 INCREASING WATER CONSUMPTION Global water demand by… 2 GREATER WATER SCARCITY In 2030.8 Bubble size = Population 2007 Bubble size = Population 2030 2007 Source: FAO Water.9 [%] 4 MORE WATER POLLUTION Today. 2 million tons of waste per day are disposed of in… 5 INCREASING EFFORTS TO SAVE WATER Since water resources are… © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 800 600 400 200 0 0.200 1. almost all… 3 NEW CONFLICTS ABOUT WATER Since water is increasingly… Share of irrigation 0.7 0.
Water scarcity will cause substantial shifts in where the world's food is grown.WATER: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 INCREASING WATER CONSUMPTION 2 GREATER WATER SCARCITY In 2030. the Maghreb. 52 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Global water demand by main water users agriculture (current share: 70%).050 km3 today to at least 4. Household water use will increase by 71%. and it is also accelerated by climate change. and large parts of India and South Africa most affected. of which more than 90% will be in developing countries. the amount of water used for agricultural use can rise only by 4% between now and 2030. growing populations (especially in Asia) will demand ever more water. increasingly polluted and destroyed reservoirs. slightly more than the entire current US grain crop. consumption of water for all non-irrigation uses will rise dramatically by 62%. up 16%. in turn constraining food production. with increasing reliance on food imports a likely effect in many developing countries. . Water scarcity is a result of increasing use of water due to population increase and changing lifestyle. Since the level of water that can be withdrawn is limited. almost all countries in the southern hemisphere will suffer from a scarcity of fresh water. industry (15%). and households (15%) will rise from 4. will experience increased hunger and malnutrition.700 km3 in 2030. Industrial water demand will increase significantly in developing countries. exceeding the demand of developed countries by 2025. While the developed countries' increase is only moderate. water scarcity will cause annual global losses of more than 350 million metric tons of food production. On a global scale. with the Middle East. northern China. By 2030. Poor countries. unable to finance imports.
India. efforts to save water will not be restricted to more efficient use and better transportation. too. and infrastructure improvements will save water. both of which are accelerating.WATER: Text behind animated chart (2/2) Since water is increasingly scarce and demand is rising. Especially in agriculture. have already been experiencing water stress for several years. conflicts and tensions over water are most likely to arise within national borders. for example. conflicts about water will rise. are particularly at risk for water-related conflicts. water-saving measures will gain importance over the next 23 years. and violence may also occur in reaction to water privatization. Forced by more regulation and higher economic incentives. 53 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . water-saving technology will make the use of water more efficient. 4 MORE WATER POLLUTION Today. and Pakistan. including agricultural. Political tensions. such as China. losses can run as high as 40 to 70%. Countries which rely heavily on water for agricultural use. 2 million tons of waste per day are disposed of in fresh water. However. industrial and human waste. per capita consumption of water will go down. Today. too. especially in developed countries and in regions where water is scarce. prospects for developing countries are less optimistic. 40% of humanity lives in the 260 major international water basins shared by more than two countries. These numbers will be significantly lower by 2030. hence the potential for interstate conflicts. civil protest. By 2030. However. in the downstream areas of distressed river basins. Agriculture is responsible for most of the pollution (up to 70%) and for the depletion of groundwater. In some major cities. Iran. Areas such as the lower regions of China's Yellow River or the Chao Phraya River in Thailand. While the surface water quality has improved in the past and will continue improving in developed countries. Rapid urbanization and unsustainable agriculture are the major problems for upgrading water quality. 3 NEW CONFLICTS ABOUT WATER 5 INCREASING EFFORTS TO SAVE WATER Since water resources are increasingly scarce. the high level of water pollution – 90% of sewage and 70% of industrial waste is discharged into water courses without treatment today – will be reduced only partly. up to 30% of fresh water supplies are lost due to leakage. but people's behavior will change.
coastal. ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY: More forests and grasslands will be converted to cropland. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2030 54 .4. Rising number of species will become extinct Conversion of land [%] 70 1 FURTHER CONVERSION OF LAND In the 23 years to come… 2 INCREASING LAND LOSS Climate change and the growth of urban areas are… 3 DESTRUCTION OF WATER ECOSYSTEMS Marine. and… 4 MORE EXTINCT SPECIES In 2030. there will be many fewer species on earth… 5 INCREASING PROTECTION' EFFORTS Efforts to protect… © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 60 50 40 30 20 0 5 2007 15 10 TROPICAL SAVANNAS FLOODED GRASSLANDS CONIFEROUS FORESTS MONTANE GRASSLANDS AND SHRUBLANDS 20 2030 30 25 Year 35 2007 Sources: UNEP.
and coniferous forests shrinking to provide new land for agriculture. As the chart shows. flooded grasslands.79 acres in the early 1960s to 0. the conversion of forests and grasslands into cropland will continue. forest equal to the size of Venezuela has been felled over the past decade. . 55 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants In the 23 years to come. more than half of the area that can potentially be converted into cultivated systems has already been converted.51 acres today. the ratio will have increased. humans will need more and more land to grow food. more than 60 million people will have left Africa's Sahelian region for North Africa and Europe by 2030. For example. The region is no longer habitable. By 2030. but at an accelerated rate. with tropical savannas.ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 FURTHER CONVERSION OF LAND 2 INCREASING LAND LOSS Climate change and the growth of urban areas are key drivers of land loss. as will be many coastal areas affected by rising sea levels. with the deforestation of an annual 13 million hectares only about halfway compensated for by reforestation. for example. Because of desertification. Consequently.39 acres by 2030. This figure is expected to reach 0. The amount of agricultural land available for each person in developing countries has declined from 0.
wetlands and tropical rainforests – the rate is estimated to be up to 10. Invasive alien species. and the destruction of water ecosystems is predicted to continue as well. and marine protection covers 0. restricting land development or creating preserves. In the future. and groundwater is being consumed faster than it is being replenished. Many nations have laws to protect ecosystems: for example. Efforts to protect ecosystems and preserve biodiversity will increase over the coming 23 years. In the past 23 years. coastal. there are over 100. In the next 23 years. Increasing use of land and climate change threaten up to 40% of all organisms. covering over 12% of the Earth's land surface.000 times greater. will increasingly threaten biodiversity in the decades ahead. groundwater tables will continue to fall. Mammal and bird species are disappearing at 100 times the natural rate.5% of the world's oceans. there will be many fewer species on earth compared with today. by the European Union. with studies predicting 21 to 24% extinction in Asia. forbidding hunting. Freshwater species populations fell by 50% over the same period.g. laws are likely to become more strict. Today. brought into different habitat by humans. and freshwater ecosystems will be further damaged by 2030.ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 DESTRUCTION OF WATER ECOSYSTEMS Marine. 56 5 INCREASING PROTECTION EFFORTS . about 20% of corals and 35% of mangroves have been lost and over a quarter of all fish populations are now overharvested. and more moderate extinction rates in Latin America by 2030. Moreover. 16 to 35% in Africa. In some ecosystems – such as coral reefs. e. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 MORE EXTINCT SPECIES In 2030.000 protected areas worldwide. there will be increasing regional and international efforts to halt biodiversity loss.
5. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: Environmental regulation will increase and become stricter. Global agreements will be marked by economic incentives Global reach of policies 1 STRICTER ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS Over the next 23 years… 2 MORE GLOBAL-LEVEL AGREEMENTS Since climate change… 3 NEW ECONOMIC INCENTIVES Monetary incentives will… Economic incentives for eco-friendly behavior No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 MORE VOLUNTARY CORPORATE ACTION Corporations will voluntarily… 5 TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY Environmental policy will… 2007 Sources: UNEP. future think tanks 2030 57 .
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 MORE GLOBAL-LEVEL AGREEMENTS Since climate change. air pollution. the Kyoto Protocol. There is no consensus on whether it will be easier or more difficult to include all major players in global-level environmental agreements in the future. 58 . cooperative forms of policy-making. or agreements by G8 and other multilateral decision-making bodies) will increase in number and scope to make environmental protection effective. Multilateral global agreements (such as those that resulted from the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. and water supply are cross-border problems.ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 STRICTER ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS Over the next 23 years. In most countries. for example by tightening restrictions on pollution. involving business. environmental planning and environmental impact assessment will become commonplace. if they aren't already. many countries will strengthen their environmental institutions and impose stricter regulations. While command and control policy via direct regulation will still be important. science and other players. will provide the basis for most environmental legislation. environmental policy will be made on the global level. and increasing fines for environmental crimes. NGOs.
whether alone.ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 NEW ECONOMIC INCENTIVES Monetary incentives will increasingly govern the behavior of both industry and households with regard to the environment. including the economic. are seen by many experts as common economic incentives for more environmentally-friendly behavior in 2030. both in terms of corporate responsibility and with regard to business success. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 MORE VOLUNTARY CORPORATE ACTION 5 TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY Environmental policy will increasingly merge with other policies that share the common goal of making life on earth sustainable. Sustainability policy. or with various non-corporate players such as NGOs. and environmental dimensions. but also soil or water. Corporations will voluntarily implement an increasingly broader range of environmental policies. By 2030. but for non-governmental and corporate players as well. is likely to be at the center of policy-making in 2030. in business groups. Acting environmentally-friendly is seen by most corporations as a vital part of their business. more areas will be incorporated into the system of trading environmental rights. Based on positive experiences with the allocation and trading of greenhouse gas emission rights. social. there will be hardly any products or services on the market that are not certified as eco-friendly. or the conversion of forests to cropland. the trading of rights to pollute not only the air. 59 . For example. This is true not only for state players.
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – ENVIRONMENT: Survey results and opinion editorials SURVEY RESULTS Most important trends between now and 2030 Most pressing issues in 2030 Implications of the trends Power to influence global trends Industry in which Young Global Leaders would invest half of their presonal financial assets Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large amount of money Weak signals 60 OPINION EDITORIALS Agassi. Maja On Turbulence and Entanglement © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Payet. Rolph The Future of Water Zafar. Sobhan Starfish Nation . Shai The Future of Transportation Kuzamonovic.
Fourth Assessment Report "Climate Change 2007“ (AR4) > UNEP: Global Environment Outlook > Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change > IEA: World Energy Outlook > IFPRI / IWMI: Global Water Outlook to 2025 > Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS > Greenhouse gas emissions (billions of tons) > Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (parts per million / ppm) > Change in world temperature (degrees Celsius) > Change of sea level (cm) > Energy consumption (million tons of oil equivalent. UNEP > International Energy Agency. 2002 > United Nations Environment Programme. mtoe) > Extinct species (number. Rio de Janeiro. and Johannesburg. e. IEA 61 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . and actors MOST IMPORTANT SOURCES > IPCC Assessment Reports. with the latest update: Kyoto Protocol > Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. %) KEY GOVERNING ACTORS AND AGREEMENTS > United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1992.g. UNFCCC. indicators. IPCC > Earth Summits.FOR FURTHER READING – ENVIRONMENT: Key sources.
GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS 1. General trends 2. Education 5.B. Health 3. Environment 4. Development & poverty 6. Global governance & security 7. Values & society 2007 2030 62 .
Greater female participation. SCHOOLING: More people will finish primary and secondary level education. Smaller classes. LITERACY: The number of illiterate people will decrease and the gender gap will narrow. HIGHER EDUCATION: University education will become increasingly common. PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION: Education will become an increasingly lifelong phenomenon characterized by a higher degree of customization 63 .OVERVIEW: Key trends in education 1. increasing use of technology worldwide © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3. EDUCATIONAL WORKERS: The demand for qualified educational workers will rise but large regional differences will emerge 5. more private financing 4. with marked improvements in the developing world 2.
UN. the gap between the literacy of men … 3 LARGEST IMPROVEMENTS IN POOR COUNTRIES In the next 23 years. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 women higher] 2007 Sources: UNESCO. ICPD 2030 64 .1. LITERACY: The number of illiterate people will decrease and the gender gap will narrow. there … 4 SHRINKING AGE DIFFERENCES Youth literacy is higher than … 5 NEW INITIATIVES The fight against illiteracy will be supported by new … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 20 SOUTH ASIA 10 SOVIET BLOC LATIN AMERICA CHINA WESTERN EUROPE Gender gap [%. the number of people with no formal … 2 NARROWING GENDER GAP Over the next 23 years. with marked improvements in the developing world Illiteracy [% of total population aged 15+] 50 1 HIGHER LITERACY On a global scale.
the share of people who cannot read or write still ranges from 15% to almost 50% today. and will decrease to between 0% and 25% in 2030. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 NARROWING GENDER GAP 65 . Over the next 23 years. In other words. while in Africa there will be only very little progress. the number of people with no formal education will decline from 862 million (or 20. While the former Soviet bloc has already achieved a literacy rate of almost 100%.LITERACY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 HIGHER LITERACY On a global scale. Nevertheless. the gap between the literacy of men and women will continue to narrow. In the remaining developing countries. more women than men will be able to read and write. Overall. The gap will shrink fastest in China. and this is true for all countries.5% of the population over 15 years of age) today to 799 million (13%) in 2030. Here in 2030. all developed countries will come very close to this figure by 2030. today's gap of 13 percentage points – the number of men who can read and write is 13 percentage points higher than that of women – will go down to 10 percentage points. literacy rates are increasing significantly. Experts predict this trend will continue as we approach 2030. there will still be more women than men without education in most of the world. with one exception: the Caribbean. all the more so when taking population growth into account.
Nevertheless. 35 countries with a literacy rate of less than 50% or over 10 million illiterates are targeted. will also achieve much lower rates of illiteracy by 2030 (projected figures are 14% of men and 34% of women). Experts expect that this development will continue beyond that date.LITERACY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 LARGEST IMPROVEMENTS IN POOR COUNTRIES In the next 23 years. South Asia. 66 . while adult literacy will increase from 82% today to 87% in 2015. Under UNESCO's Literacy Initiative for Empowerment (LIFE). where 33% of men and 55% of women have no education at all. there will be changes over the next 23 years: The advantage of youths will shrink. where illiteracy is highest today at 39% of men and 66% of women. 5 NEW INITIATIVES The fight against illiteracy will be supported by new international efforts. will manage to halve the share of people who cannot read or write by 2030. This is true today and will be true in 2030. for example. North Africa. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 SHRINKING AGE DIFFERENCES Youth literacy is higher than adult literacy. there will be practically no illiteracy by 2030. while both age groups become more literate. In Latin America and China. The focus of such initiatives will shift from implementing measures to increase literacy levels to ensuring the sustainability of earlier achievements. the largest improvements regarding literacy will be in the developing countries. Projections for 2015 predict that youth literacy will go up from 87% to 90%.
SCHOOLING: More people will finish primary and secondary level education.2. men higher] LATIN AMERICA SOVIET BLOC WESTERN EUROPE CHINA SOUTH ASIA 1 MORE PEOPLE WITH SCHOOL EDUCATION The number of people who … 2 RISING ENROLLMENT NUMBERS Both the number and … 3 NARROWING GENDER DIFFERENCES While there is hardly any … 4 SMALLER CLASSES On average. Smaller classes. there is one teacher for every 21 pupils … 5 INCREASING USE OF COMPUTERS Computers will increasingly … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2007 Sources: UNESCO. increasing use of technology worldwide Secondary education or higher [% of total population aged 15+] 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Gender gap [%. ICPD 2030 67 . UN.
China and the Middle East that catch up fastest. In total numbers. Over the past ten years. it will be Eastern Europe. it has increased by 14% to 502 million students today. Central Asia. By 2030. 2. these numbers will have risen to 91% (at least primary education) and 55% (secondary level education or higher). Over the next 23 years. As with literacy. Enrollment rates are 86% at the primary level and 65% at the secondary level today. 80% of all people over age 15 have been to primary school. Today. Secondary education enrollment is expected to rise even faster.SCHOOLING: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE PEOPLE WITH SCHOOL EDUCATION 2 RISING ENROLLMENT NUMBERS Both the number and proportion of pupils that go to school will rise over the next 23 years. . and so are the OECD and Central Asian countries. Over the next 23 years. 68 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants The number of people who have enjoyed at least basic formal education will be rising fast. the number of students will rise slightly by 2% to 654 million in 2015 and around 680 million in 2030. Today. Both rates are rising today – except for some of the poorest countries – and are expected to rise further until 2030. 640 million children of primary education age (5-12 years) are enrolled in school.2 billion more people will have attended primary education institutions by 2030. the former Soviet Union countries are top. and about half of the world's population (49%) hold a secondary degree. Latin America.
Today. there are still vast differences in secondary education. Computers will increasingly become integrated into both school life and curriculum. too. 5 INCREASING USE OF COMPUTERS 69 . 42% of men and only 32% of women over the age of 15 have enjoyed 9 or 10 years of formal education. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 SMALLER CLASSES On average. with 48% of men and 40% of women having completed secondary education. The gender gap will narrow most rapidly in China and Eastern Europe. while there are also improvements in Northern and Sub-Saharan Africa. this difference will have declined moderately. Initiatives such as "one laptop per child" are working to ensure that students in all parts of the world can access global information. since one teacher had an average of 27 pupils in 1991. but increasingly in developing countries. this pupil-teacher ratio has changed for the better. there is one teacher for every 21 pupils in primary schools and one teacher per 17 pupils in secondary schools worldwide today. By 2030. not only in developed and transitional economies. Computer classes will be standard in 2030.SCHOOLING: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 NARROWING GENDER DIFFERENCES While there is hardly any difference between men and women when it comes to primary education today or in 2030. Over the past 16 years. Experts predict further improvement in the pupil-teacher ratio between now and 2030. as will be basic IT literacy starting at primary education levels.
HIGHER EDUCATION: University education will become increasingly common. Greater female participation. men higher] 4 MORE PRIVATE MONEY Higher education will be increasingly financed with … 5 MORE PRIVATE INFLUENCE Universities will be increasingly subject to influence from … 2007 Sources: UNESCO. OECD 2030 70 . ICPD.3. the number of men with university education is still … SOUTH ASIA © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 15 CHINA LATIN AMERICA 5 0 1 2 3 4 Gender gap 5 [%. 10% of the world's … 2 MORE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS The number of university … 3 TOWARD GENDER PARITY Today. more private financing Tertiary education [% of total population aged 15+] 35 SOVIET BLOC 25 WESTERN EUROPE 1 MORE WELL-EDUCATED PEOPLE Today. UN.
but also that less-educated people die while younger ones are becoming more educated. 5% in China and South Asia. Three-quarters of that growth took place in developing countries. 132 million students are enrolled in universities across the globe. with only 2% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa having a university degree. the total number of top educated people will have gone up by over 50% or 258 million to 748 million. Experts forecast that the number of students will rise fastest in Asian countries. has more than quadrupled in the past ten years. . where the number of university students has almost doubled from 41 million to 76 million students today. Even though this share will have risen only to 11% by 2030. up from 21% today. with enrollment rates of up to 40% forecast for after 2020. The most rapid rise toward more tertiary education is expected to be in Western Europe. The proportion of students aged 18-22 at China's universities. Regional variation will still be large in 2030. for example. up 40 million (43. with China already seeing increased university enrollment.5%) compared with ten years ago. 10% of the world's adults have a higher education degree (tertiary education level). 71 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Today. 20% in the former Soviet Union. 10% in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.HIGHER EDUCATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE WELL-EDUCATED PEOPLE 2 MORE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS The number of university students will rise further between now and 2030. Today. and 30% in Western Europe. The reason for this is not only population growth.
to around 45% in the US and Japan. there are likely to be large regional differences in the share of private and public money allocated for education. with multi-stakeholder partnerships the norm. However. 72 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 MORE PRIVATE MONEY 5 MORE PRIVATE INFLUENCE . with a Gender Parity Index (GPI) of 1. 57% in China. 11% of men over 15 have received tertiary education.03 on global average. Higher education will be increasingly financed with private capital. the number of men with university education is still significantly higher than that of women. Universities will be increasingly subject to influence from private organizations and individuals. Compelled to engage in the education process. On the global average. these differences will become smaller.HIGHER EDUCATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 TOWARD GENDER PARITY Today. while in developing countries. 83% in Thailand and 99% in India. the business community will strongly promote courses and educational offers. and 21% in Korea. ranging from close to 100% in Scandinavian states. 43% in Jordan. while this is the case for only 8% of all women today. In emerging countries. During the next 23 years. about 80% of the OECD countries' higher education expenditure comes from public sources. there will still be many more men in universities in 2030. female participation is significantly higher with a GPI of 1. and in the former Soviet states the gap will have reopened in the other direction: women will be better educated than men. gender parity has already been achieved. with public sources providing 22% in Chile.27. In developed and transition countries. Today. via student fees and donations from corporations and private individuals. Among current students in tertiary education levels. The educational sector will continue to develop as an industry. the ranges are equally wide.
millions] 400 AFRICA 1 DIVERGING NEED FOR EDUCATIONAL WORKERS Because population growth … 2 RISING NUMBER OF TEACHERS The total number of teachers … 3 DELAYED UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION Over 40 countries are unlikely… 4 FALLING PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO The number of pupils per… 5 DIFFERENT QUALIFICATIONS NEEDED In general..4. 5-14 years. EDUCATIONAL WORKERS: The demand for qualified educational workers will rise but large regional differences will emerge Need for teachers [School-age population. UN 2030 73 . the countries . © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 300 INDIA 200 CHINA 100 0 2007 LATIN AMERICA EUROPE NORTH AMERICA 2030 Year 2007 Sources: UNESCO.
4%). Overall. with the 5-14 age group rising by more than 103 million in Africa. if looking at individual regions. and the amount of secondary level teachers went up at an even higher rate. there are now more teachers at the secondary level than at the primary level.7 million to 26.4 million today (+16%). fewer teachers will be needed: The number of school-age children will decline in Europe (-11 million). the number of school-age children (aged 5-14) will rise between now and 2030. by 59 million or 4.EDUCATIONAL WORKERS: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 DIVERGING NEED FOR EDUCATIONAL WORKERS 2 RISING NUMBER OF TEACHERS The total number of teachers is projected to rise. In the rest of the world. the number of primary level teachers rose by 3. Latin America (-6 million).8%. the number of teachers will fall. In most regions with declining schoolage populations. . 74 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Because population growth and aging vary by region. However. and 3 million in the US and Canada. for example. For the first time. by 7. but given the population trends. only very moderately. without changing the number of students per teacher.8 million. This provides an opportunity to improve education quality by investing more resources per teacher and pupil. if only very slightly. the differences are vast: Africa and North America will need more teachers. The fast pace of the past 23 years will certainly not continue: Since 1990. for example.6 million today (+39. and also in Asia: Both China (-26 million) and India (-13 million) will have dramatically smaller numbers of school-age children by 2030. the demand for educational workers will diverge over the next 23 years. China could reduce its number of teachers by 1.8 million to 27. and with great regional variation.
Today. but rather their uneven regional distribution: Especially in the Arab states and in Sub-Saharan Africa. North America and Western Europe face a shortage in specialized teachers. due to a lack of educational workers. In many parts of the world. an increase of 26% from current levels. an increase of 68% between 2004 and 2015. However. the ratio is much lower at 22:1.000 teachers will be needed in South and West Asia. Another 325. with Ethiopia's ratio topping the list at 72:1. the number of teachers needs to rise dramatically before 2015. including better-skilled teachers. the pupil-teacher ratio is 21:1 on average across all school levels. representing an increase of 7%. The Arab states will require an additional 450. there is a need for higher quality education. the countries needing the most teachers have the least qualified personnel. where resources must increase from 2. with higher pupil-teacher ratios at the primary than the secondary level in all regions.4 to 4. Six African countries. particularly in math and science. the greatest challenge lies in Sub-Saharan Africa. The overall number of teachers is not an obstacle to meeting the goal.000 teachers. while in Europe and the US the ratio is already at a very low 13:1. Becoming computer-literate is also a necessity for teachers. 75 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . 5 DIFFERENT QUALIFICATIONS NEEDED In general. as set in the Millennium Development Goals. In Latin America. have more than 60 students per teacher on average. down from 27:1 in 1991 and 24:1 in 1999. 4 FALLING PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO The number of pupils per teacher is expected to fall over the next 23 years. In terms of absolute numbers. this concern for quality is and will continue to be found even in the developed regions. no matter where they are on the globe. there are and will continue to be vast regional differences. However.EDUCATIONAL WORKERS: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 DELAYED UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION Over 40 countries are unlikely to achieve the goal of universal primary education (UPE) by 2015. for example.0 million teachers.
PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION: Education will become an increasingly lifelong phenomenon characterized by a higher degree of customization Life-long learning 1 MORE LIFELONG LEARNING While this trend is not new.5. there are already … 4 INCREASING CUSTOMIZATION OF EXECUTIVE EDUCATION Executive education will see … 5 GLOBALIZATION OF PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION OFFERS Vocational and executive … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period Personalization of learning packages 2007 Source: UNESCO. UNESCO-UNEVOC 2030 76 . thinking about education as … 2 CHANGES IN TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING Rather than providing skills … 3 MORE AND DIFFERENT EXECUTIVE EDUCATION Today.
ensuring that the training can best meet the labor market requirements. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 CHANGES IN TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING Rather than providing skills only for a single job profile. Learning packages will be increasingly personalized. and training will be increasingly linked with employers. thinking about education as a lifelong necessity and opportunity will still be the defining development in professional education between today and 2030. 77 . once people are fully employed. with both supply and demand of educational offers changing and rising accordingly. regular alternation between work and educational phases will be common in many jobs around the world. vocational and technical training will increasingly lay the foundation for further learning. etc.PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE LIFELONG LEARNING While this trend is not new. This training will incorporate general education content and provide preparation for a cluster of occupations in a given sector. however. By 2030. Today. The average age at which students enter and leave vocational training will continue to rise. length and depth of courses. learning phases rarely last longer than a seminar. modular. and flexible in terms of content. place of study. learning material.
Over the next 23 years. many new schools will emerge. the majority of them in non-Western countries. for example. Vocational and executive education will increasingly be offered globally and connected around the world. With an increasing number of partner institutions around the world. with executive schools in India and South Africa rapidly rising through the ranks. most of them still focusing on general leadership and management. Soft skills training and technical courses will become more important. will increasingly partner with schools in South America. and now need to catch up on mission skills and expertise. Executive education will see a shift from standard programs with open enrollment courses to tailor-made programs. Japan. 78 4 INCREASING CUSTOMIZATION OF EXECUTIVE EDUCATION 5 GLOBALIZATION OF PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION OFFERS © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . Top Western executive schools. Non-Western schools will partner with US and European institutions and incorporate their courses for a better understanding of Western business practices. both teacher and student exchanges will be common. Europe. More business schools will even pull out of the open enrollment market altogether. not only in the top courses.PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 MORE AND DIFFERENT EXECUTIVE EDUCATION Today. as will pure finance and marketing courses offered to those who started their careers early and got promoted quickly. environmental topics feeding into "climate leadership" will be a major issue in business schools for at least the next decade. there are already over 600 business schools offering a wide range of executive courses. the demand for tailor-made programs will increase. Similar to the "e-com" focus at the beginning of the century. the number of non-English courses will rise. including hard business metrics about the outcome of courses. Also. China and Korea. As corporations become more sophisticated "customers of education" and manage academic partnerships just like any other vendor relationship.
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – EDUCATION: Survey results and opinion editorials SURVEY RESULTS Country in which Young Global Leaders would spend a one-year sabbatical for professional development Foreign language that Young Global Leaders would recommend a 15-year-old to learn Organization in which Young Global Leaders would recommend a 15-year-old to do an internship Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large amount of money Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large amount of money – other ideas Weak signals OPINION EDITORIALS Baggio. John A Call to Action © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 79 . Rodrigo The Possible World Of Technology Used For Good Wood.
and tertiary education) > Gender Parity Index. MDG (especially goals no. Cairo. 1994 > UNESCO Education for all (EFA) Forum 80 . Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > Millennium Development Goals. 2 and 3) > International Conference on Population and Development. % of GDP) KEY GOVERNING ACTORS AND AGREEMENTS > United Nations Educational. % of age group) > Enrolment rates (% of population in particular age group) > Gender ratios (girls to boys in primary. indicators. secondary.FOR FURTHER READING – EDUCATION: Key sources. ICPD. and actors MOST IMPORTANT SOURCES > UNESCO: Education For All Global Monitoring Report 2007 > UNESCO: Literacy Decade Statistics > UIS: Various education reports and statistics > UNESCO-UNEVOC: Participation in Formal TVET Worldwide MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS > Literacy rates (% of total population. GPI (index value) > Pupil-teacher ratio (number of pupils per teacher) > Education expenditure (USD.
5. General trends Health Environment Education Development & poverty Global governance & security Values & society 2007 2030 81 . 4. 3. 6.B. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: RESULTS OF YGL SURVEY 1. 7. 2.
the number of unemployed will rise fast with persistent underemployment but rising female employment and less child labor 4. INFRASTRUCTURE: To meet the rising demand for infrastructure services. Changing trends in diets. investments will increase 5. increased food safety concerns © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3. INCOME & INEQUALITY: The income gap between countries will narrow and the global middle class will expand but with growing income inequality within countries 2. DEVELOPMENT AID: More money will be spent on aiding development with help from celebrities and increased remittances but aid increasingly politicized 82 . MALNUTRITION & HUNGER: The number of undernourished people will shrink.OVERVIEW: Key trends in development & poverty 1. EMPLOYMENT: Despite more jobs.
100 1. INCOME & INEQUALITY: The income gap betw.1. 1.2 billion people … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 23 21 19 17 15 500 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 600 700 800 900 Developing countries 2007 Developing countries 2030 2007 Source: World Bank 2030 83 . sub-Saharan Africa alone will be home to more … 5 EXPANDING GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS By 2030.200 [million] 4 AFRICA FALLING BEHIND By 2030.000 1. countries will narrow and the global middle class will expand but growing income inequality within countries Per capita income [% of developed countries] 25 1 DECREASING NUMBER OF POOR Poverty will decline … 2 POOR COUNTRIES CATCHING UP The gap between average … 3 WIDENING INCOME GAPS WITHIN COUNTRIES While the income gap … People living on less than USD 1 per day 1.
However. Similarly. for example. but by 2030. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 POOR COUNTRIES CATCHING UP 84 . While poverty in Asia will decline in relative and absolute terms. the number of people living on less than USD 2 a day will fall below 1. from 1.000 in 2030. Today. 800 million fewer than today.5% of what people earn in developed countries. per capita income in developing countries will be 22. people in developing countries earn on average only 16.800 today to USD 11.5% of per capita income in developed countries. roughly equal to current levels in the Czech Republic.9 billion. despite continuing population growth.1 billion now to 550 million in 2030. there are vast regional differences. the number of very poor people in Africa will not go down over the next 23 years. In absolute terms. the picture looks even brighter in developing countries. The gap between average incomes in developed countries and incomes in developing countries is going to narrow between now and 2030. Average per capital income will more than double from USD 4.INCOME & INEQUALITY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 DECREASING NUMBER OF POOR Poverty will decline significantly between today and 2030. The number of people living on less than USD 1 a day will be cut in half over the next 23 years.
9% today. In East Asia. But the main driver is the widening difference between skilled and unskilled workers. Demographics play a role. Today. That is. the ratio of skilled wages relative to unskilled wages will increase to 4. as measured by purchasing power parity. This large group will participate actively in the global marketplace. while income distribution in most African states will become much more unequal. Africa will have the lowest per capita income growth among developing regions.7 times more than unskilled today. 1. will belong to the global middle class. they will have the purchasing power to buy automobiles.000.6 by 2030. making social tensions more likely. as measured in per capita income. income distribution will widen in as many as two-thirds of all countries. Families of four in that class earn between USD 16.000 and 68. As measured by the Gini coefficient. as aging societies tend to become more unequal. Sub-Saharan Africa alone will be home to more than half (55%) of the world's poorest 10%. up from only 400 million or 5. 4 AFRICA FALLING BEHIND By 2030. Between now and 2030. 85 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . or 15% of the world's population. indicating a significant deterioration of relative living standards in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to other regions. and aspire to international standards of higher education.2 billion people in developing countries. demand world-class products. Over the next 23 years. consumer durables. and travel abroad. income inequality will widen within most countries. skilled workers earn 3.5%. for example. 5 EXPANDING GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS By 2030. while half of the poorest tenth of the world's population still lives in Asia. the level of inequality will decrease in many Latin American states between now and 2030. Almost half of those will live in East Asia and the Pacific. the likelihood that a random person in the bottom 10% income group will live in Africa increases twofold. including the most populous ones.INCOME & INEQUALITY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 WIDENING INCOME GAPS WITHIN COUNTRIES While the income gap between rich and poor countries narrows. Africa's share of the world's poorest 10% is only 29.
Changing trends in diets.600 2.2.400 2.200 3.800 2.000 2.600 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 3. OIL AND SUGAR The growth in per capita food … Undernourished 35 people [%] 4 GETTING UNHEALTHY The forecasts for diet transitions in many countries … 5 NEW THREATS TO FOOD SAFETY Microbiological hazards … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants SOUTH ASIA SUBSAHARAN AFRICA 10 15 20 25 30 Total number of undernourished people 2007 Total number of undernourished people 2030 2007 Sources: World Bank.200 0 5 LATIN AMERICA EAST ASIA MIDDLE EAST/ NORTH AFRICA 1 FEWER UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE The number of … 2 MORE CALORIES Over the next 23 years. FAO 2030 86 .400 3. per capita food consumption will … 3 MORE LIVESTOCK. increased food safety concerns Daily food consumption [kcal/person] 3. WHO. MALNUTRITION & HUNGER: The number of undernourished people will shrink.
Today.9%) in 2030.100 calories per person per day – will go down from 710 million people today (13. undernourishment is most acute in Sub-Saharan Africa.9% of the African population living in constant hunger. people will eat food with significantly more calories in 2030 (3150 kcal/person/day). this figure will have decreased dramatically. with 190 million or 27. the absolute level is on average far from critically low. In transitional economies. .MALNUTRITION & HUNGER: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 FEWER UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE 2 MORE CALORIES Over the next 23 years. 87 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants The number of undernourished people – those that consume less than the minimum amount of calories essential for sound health and growth. both in total numbers (150 million) and as a share of the total population (12.5% of the global population) to 460 million (6. The highest numbers of undernourished people can be found today in India. Absolute levels and the pace of growth vary by region: In developed countries. By 2030. followed by China.4%). A further drop to 290 million is projected by 2050. and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. usually defined as 2. While developing countries will still be in last place with 2960 kcal/person/day in 2030. up by 120 calories per day. Bangladesh. food consumption rises only marginally to 3520 kcal/person/day in 2030. per capita food consumption will rise from 2870 kcal/person/day to 3040 kcal/person/ day.
preparing food outside the home more often. First. food additives. sugar and salt. the predicted changes will be beneficial in many countries with inadequate diets. eggs). livestock products (meat. to a lesser extent. vegetable oils. milk. will become more important as sources of calories. where the share has been around 48% for decades.g. they will often be accompanied by a corresponding increase in diet-related chronic non-communicable diseases. In 2030. up from 20% three decades ago. 5 NEW THREATS TO FOOD SAFETY Microbiological hazards (e. meat and poultry) will pose threats. Food will also be at increased risk from three sources. greater movement of people. lead. salmonella) and chemical hazards (toxins. All three food groups together now provide 29% of total food consumption of the developing countries (in terms of calories).MALNUTRITION & HUNGER: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 MORE LIVESTOCK. 88 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . seafood. live animals and food products across borders will create risk. vegetable oils and. livestock. and low in unrefined carbohydrates – will pose a threat to many people's health in the next 23 years. food will be at risk due to the emergence of new or antibiotic-resistant pathogens. However. veterinary drugs. In the diet of developing countries. this is still significantly less than in industrial countries. Changes toward high-energy diets – diets high in fat (particularly saturated fat). mercury. sugar. responsible for many food-borne diseases. increased consumption of fresh and minimally processed foods. Finally. changes in food handling and consumption (for example. and greater consumption of fish. However. 4 GETTING UNHEALTHY The forecasts for diet transitions in many countries. Second. etc. OIL AND SUGAR The growth in per capita food consumption will be accompanied by significant changes in diet composition. and sugar will account for 35% of all calories. pesticides. In combination with lifestyle changes due mostly to rapid urbanization.) are but two global food safety concerns. are mixed. especially in the developing world.
UNICEF 2030 89 . EMPLOYMENT: Despite more jobs.3. the # of unemployed will rise fast with persistent underemployment but rising female employment and less child labor Number of people employed 1 RISING UNEMPLOYMENT Since the population will continue to grow fast over … 2 PERSISTENT UNDEREMPLOYMENT Another problem which will … 3 LESS CHILD LABOR Since 2000. the employment gap between … 5 HIGHER LABOR FORCE LOSSES DUE TO HIV/AIDS Since the outbreak of HIV … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period Number of people unemployed 2007 Source: ILO. child labor has gone down worldwide for … 4 NARROWING GENDER GAP According to the ILO.
at 191.EMPLOYMENT: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 RISING UNEMPLOYMENT Since the population will continue to grow fast over the next 23 years. into participating in armed conflict (0.8 million today. Experts predict both a higher number of people in the workforce and higher unemployment. there is consensus that child labor will continue to decline. And only 14. such as in mines. forced into debt bondage or other forms of slavery (5.2 million children are trafficked. an estimated 218 million children aged 5-17 are engaged in child labor (not counting those who work in their homes). Some 126 million of these work in hazardous situations or conditions. child labor has gone down worldwide for the first time ever. 1. Compared with ten years ago. Numbers of underemployed have not changed much over the past ten years. the International Labor Organization (ILO) concludes that child labor could be eliminated in ten years.8 million). with chemicals and pesticides in agriculture or with dangerous machinery.7 million).4 million (22%).6 million).4 billion don't earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the USD 2 a day poverty line. the global number of unemployed is higher by 34.3 million) or other illicit activities (0. into prostitution and pornography (1. 90 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Another problem which will remain prominent is underemployment. Millions of girls who work as domestic servants are especially vulnerable to exploitation and abuse. The vast majority of child laborers – 70% or more – work in agriculture.5 million of the world's more than 500 million extreme working poor are able to rise above the USD 1 a day poverty line. and young people are more than three times as likely as adults to be out of work. . Of today's more than 2. providing sufficient employment will be increasingly difficult. Today.8 billion workers. Almost half of the world's unemployed are young people aged 15 to 24. Given the fast pace (11% decrease between 2000 and 2004). An estimated 1. While others are more skeptical. 2 PERSISTENT UNDEREMPLOYMENT 3 LESS CHILD LABOR Since 2000.
In other words: 1. 5 HIGHER LABOR FORCE LOSSES DUE TO HIV/AIDS Since the outbreak of HIV/AIDS. while the trend has come to a halt in regions such as South and Southeast Asia. but remains wide. this number will have ballooned to 74 million. the death toll can be very high. and in Latin America and the Caribbean the difference is 30 percentage points. 52.5 million working-age people die from HIV/AIDS every year. Most experts believe the gender gap will narrow further. the gap is 16 percentage points.EMPLOYMENT: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 4 NARROWING GENDER GAP According to the ILO. In Africa. with this number expected to double by 2030. 2. North Africa and South Asia. compared with 51. 91 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . In developed countries. the employment gap between women and men has narrowed over the past decade. and this share will rise up to more than 4% in 2030. although the numbers vary significantly among regions and between individual countries. Latin America and the Caribbean. However. Sub-Saharan Africa. Throughout the entire African continent. and has even reversed in Central and Eastern Europe. there are mixed signs today: rates are still going up in the Middle East and North Africa. in the Middle East. with two-thirds of the losses in Africa.2% of adult women are in employment.7% ten years ago. Today. East Asia.3% of the global labor force has had to stop working because of HIV/AIDS so far. By 2015. the CIS countries. the gender gap is 40 percentage points. Women make up approximately 40% of the world's labor force. after decades of increasing labor force participation by women. 28 million labor force participants have been lost to the epidemic.
4. investments will increase Annual investments [USD bn] 700 1 RISING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS According to OECD … 2 INCREASING PRESSURE ON TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS Over the next 23 years … 3 EASIER ACCESS TO COMMUNICATION With mobile phones … 4 MORE ELECTRICITY Today.6 billion people (one-quarter of the world's … 5 PROGRESS IN WATER ACCESS AND SANITATION Today. there are 1. 1.1 billion … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 Water infrastructure Energy infrastructure Transportation infrastructure 2007 5 10 15 20 25 2030 35 30 Year 2007 Source: OECD. World Bank 2030 92 . INFRASTRUCTURE: To meet the rising demand for infrastructure services.
energy. passenger traffic will increase around the world by 1. current investment levels are still well below this target. rail. fast-growing countries such as China. especially in developing countries. The World Bank estimates that developing countries will need to invest about 6% of their GDP annually in infrastructure. as shown in the chart.6% each year. Transport requirements are especially high in large. communication and water systems. and Russia. since increasing numbers of people will die from road traffic accidents.5% per year. and freight transportation by 2. where many areas need new infrastructure. transportation systems will have to handle much higher volumes. On average. India. Nearly half of this expenditure (46%) will be invested in developing countries. However. except for Asia. Additionally. electricity. 2 INCREASING PRESSURE ON TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS Over the next 23 years. USD 71 trillion will need to be invested between now and 2030 to improve basic global infrastructure and meet future infrastructure requirements. there is a need for tougher safety standards for transportation systems.828 billion needs to be invested in the world's transport infrastructure until 2030. airports. It is estimated that more than USD 2. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 93 . Water and energy infrastructure investment demands are much higher than those for transportation. where investment exceeds 7% of GDP in rapidly growing countries. including roads.INFRASTRUCTURE: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 RISING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS According to OECD estimates.
there are 1. 32% in Sub-Saharan Africa. 4 MORE ELECTRICITY Today. who lack access to safe drinking water.6 billion people (one-quarter of the world's population) don't have access to electricity. 1. while a much higher amount will be spent to modernize existing electricity infrastructure in the rest of the world. By 2030. many more people in these regions will be connected. The area with the greatest access gains was in South Asia.6 billion people.1 billion people. growing at twice the rate of the global market.1 billion people gained access to safe drinking water. in all parts of the world except Sub-Saharan Africa. 1. and 14% in East Asia. Almost half of those live in South Asia. 2 billion people worldwide have a mobile phone. or 42%. especially from emerging countries. access to global communication networks will become increasingly easy. meeting the corresponding Millennium Development Goal. 94 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . Over the past 15 years. these proportions will be halved.INFRASTRUCTURE: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 EASIER ACCESS TO COMMUNICATION With mobile phones and cheap laptops penetrating developing countries and more information and communication technology (ICT) inventions on the way. driving the global number up to 83% from 76% today. By 2015. About USD 660 billion are expected to be spent between now and 2030 to supply basic electricity services to the world's poor. or 18% of the world's population. with more than 1 million users joining every day. 5 PROGRESS IN WATER ACCESS AND SANITATION Today. where water access increased from 71% in 1990 to 84% today. Mobile currently outnumbers fixed line penetration by nearly five to one in Africa. In Sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people with safe drinking water and basic sanitation is expected to rise further before 2030. access grew much more slowly. from 49% fifteen years ago to 58% today. About 2. lack access to basic sanitation. Africa will continue to be the fastest-growing market of mobile communication for at least a few more years. Already today.
2 0.5 0.7 0. United Nations 2030 5 MORE REMITTANCES Remittances. or money sent back home. DEVELOPMENT AID: More money will be spent on aiding development with help from celebrities and increased remittances but aid increasingly politicized Official Development Aid [% of GDP] 0.5.0 2007 2010 2005 2020 2025 2030 Year 2035 2007 Sources: World Bank.8 1 MORE OFFICIAL MONEY FOR DEVELOPMENT Over the next 23 years. will grow rapidly … 95 .1 0.4 0.6 0. … 2 INCREASE IN NONGOVERNMENT AID Global data and projections … 3 MORE CELEBRITIES HELPING Commitments by celebrities … 4 REPOLITICIZATION OF AID In the "golden era" between the end of the Cold War … 2015 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 0.3 0.
universities. up from 54% today. the US is the largest contributor in absolute terms (USD 16 billion). . Over the next five years.017 percentage points per year. non-governmental development aid is higher than official development aid (ODA) in many countries. Norway tops the list of relative contributions with 0.7% of GDP by 2015. that help from foundations. This is also true in monetary terms: Already today.92% of GDP. official development aid (ODA) should reach 0.14% of GDP). If the rise of ODA continues increasing at the current pace of 0. the current level of USD 104 billion (0. However. developing nations from the Persian Gulf are increasingly generous. more government money will be spent to aid development in poorer countries.3% of global GDP). private voluntary organizations. In the US. however. It is estimated. religious groups and individuals giving directly to needy people abroad will account for an even larger share of all development aid in 2030. is still far away from that target. 96 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Over the next 23 years. private aid outstrips government aid by 3 to 1. and the smallest contributor in relative terms (0. for example.DEVELOPMENT AID: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE OFFICIAL MONEY FOR DEVELOPMENT 2 INCREASE IN NON-GOVERNMENT AID Global data and projections regarding non-governmental development aid is difficult to find. the UN target of 0. corporations. the share of European ODA will rise to about two-thirds of total ODA. Set as one of the millennium goals. while the share of the US will go down to below 20%. In addition.7% of GDP will be reached by the year 2030. Today.
development aid was primarily aimed to provide help for the poorest. They help fight hunger. Remittances. more than 150% compared with today. celebrity-sponsored aid partnerships are almost always global-level initiatives. In the future. complementing country-focused aid from other players. Russia and smaller countries such as Slovenia and Thailand are all taking steps to establish their own aid agencies and aid systems.DEVELOPMENT AID: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 MORE CELEBRITIES HELPING Commitments by celebrities like Bill Clinton. stable and generally well targeted and delivered. remittances are expected to reach over USD 250 billion. Bill Gates. will grow in importance. The major reasons include rising migration and a dramatic fall in the cost of wiring money home. less carefully targeted at the poor and less focused on sound policy and institutions. In the next 23 years. and Warren Buffet have dramatically raised aid funding from unconventional sources and awareness. Multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and IMF will be the most obvious victims of repoliticization: major donors will withdraw support and resources in favor of their own programs. and exceeding official aid by far. Bono. Remittances are likely to compete increasingly with official aid. disease and illiteracy. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 REPOLITICIZATION OF AID In the "golden era" between the end of the Cold War and the start of the so-called war on terror. since they are fast growing. By 2030. such highly visible and professionally run initiatives will grow in importance. India. New players pursuing political interests have started to enter the development aid scene: China. While often linked with existing government or NGO programs. Bilateral aid. development aid will again be increasingly seen as a foreign policy tool. for example. will grow rapidly over the next 23 years. or money sent back home. 97 5 MORE REMITTANCES . Their goals are set at the global level.
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – DEVELOPMENT & POVERTY: Survey results and opinion editorials SURVEY RESULTS Most important trends between now and 2030 Most pressing issues in 2030 Implications of the trends Power to influence global trends Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large amount of money Weak signals OPINION EDITORIALS Prince Haakon of Norway Global Dignity Himanen. Pekka A New Oration on Dignity © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Kremer. Jonathan Future Mapping Commentary 98 . Michael Future Trends in Aid Meyer. Paul Only Five Computers Zittrain.
FOR FURTHER READING – DEVELOPMENT & POVERTY: Key sources. %) > Official Development Aid (% of GDP) KEY GOVERNING ACTORS AND AGREEMENTS > World Bank > World Health Organization. %) > (Un)employment (number. and actors MOST IMPORTANT SOURCES > World Bank: Global Economic Prospects 2007 > FAO: World Agriculture – Towards 2015/2030 > ILO: Global Employment Trends > World Bank: The Changing Aid Architecture > OECD: Infrastructure to 2030 – Telecom. Water and Electricity MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS > Per capita income (USD. % of total population) > Daily food consumption (kcal per person) > Undernourishment (number. FAO > International Labor Organization. WHO © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. ILO > Unicef 99 . indicators. % of developed countries) > People living on less than USD 1 per day (number. Land Transport.
Environment 4. Education 5. Global governance & security 7. General trends 2. Health 3. Development & poverty 6. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS 1. Values & society 2007 2030 100 .B.
Shifting military powers.OVERVIEW: Key trends in global governance & security 1. Rise of regional agreements. Increasingly sophisticated international terrorism 4. more mercenaries and "intelligent" warfare © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3. New generation of philanthropy. e-governance 2. Intensified efforts to reduce violence against women 5. HUMAN RIGHTS: Fewer human rights abuses will take place globally. CIVIL SOCIETY: Non-profit and non-governmental organizations will gain in influence. growing international integration 101 . ARMED CONFLICTS: More intra-state conflicts will occur. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: International institutions will face increasing legitimacy and enforcement problems. SECURITY: Non-military threats will rise with higher costs for security and insurance.
international … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Legitimacy problems No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period 2007 Sources: United Nations. Rise of regional agreements. e-governance Regionalism 1 TOWARD REGIONALISM While many international problems will continue to … 2 INCREASING LEGITIMACY PROBLEMS Over the next 23 years. World Bank.1. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: Institutions will face increasing legitimacy and enforcement problems. … 3 GREATER CHALLENGES TO EFFICIENCY International institutions like … 4 NEW TOPICS AND CHANGING RELEVANCE International institutions will … 5 MORE E-GOVERNANCE Like national and regional institutions. IMF 2030 102 .
States will also want to restrict the influence of these institutions by holding back their financial and manpower contributions. international institutions such as the United Nations. 103 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants While many international problems will continue to be addressed on an international level. is program failures and a lack of enforcement. regional cooperation will increasingly challenge the power and legitimacy of international institutions. these regional bodies also often complement international institutions based on the idea of subsidiarity. the World Bank. Many experts predict that the overall influence of international organizations will shrink between now and 2030. Sometimes meant as a way to counterbalance existing international institutions and multilateral approaches. and the International Monetary Fund will face increasing legitimacy problems. especially for the UN. A related problem. Political institutions. . there is a trend toward more regionalism. However. More and more states will criticize them as being too Western-biased and not representative – especially when looking at the UN Security Council and keeping in mind that global power is shifting toward the east. free trade areas and development agencies are all expected to grow and deepen primarily on a regional level. the latter often the reason for the former. New regional cooperation explicitly meant as a better alternative to international institutions will be found most prominently in South America.INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 TOWARD REGIONALISM 2 INCREASING LEGITIMACY PROBLEMS Over the next 23 years.
E-governance will also be increasingly used to re-engage people with the political process and have them participate in a variety of ways 104 . Water and migration are expected to be placed higher on the agenda. global pandemics and security issues. while available resources will be increasingly scarce. issues related to demographic change will become more prominent. Plans to reform today's structures and systems exist and are expected to change the way the UN recruits and retains staff. while the number of civilians and soldiers deployed on peacekeeping missions has risen more than fourfold. or the relevance of topics will change. There is also a large number of new humanitarian and human rights operations.INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 GREATER CHALLENGES TO EFFICIENCY International institutions like the UN will find it increasingly challenging to operate efficiently. NGOs. and efficiency is expected to remain an issue as we head toward 2030. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 NEW TOPICS AND CHANGING RELEVANCE International institutions will have new topics on their agendas in the next 23 years. Current topics that will increasingly dominate discussion include global warming and other environmental changes. sources services and manages funds in pursuit of efficiency and results. this process will take time. Most issues will be increasingly addressed in close cooperation with non-governmental actors. international institutions will increasingly use and be affected by information technology. Nevertheless. Over the past ten years. Electronic channels will be used to exchange information and services with governments. Mandates will become ever more complex. Furthermore. other programs partners and people affected by the activities of international institutions. for example. financial resources have only doubled. procures goods. 5 MORE E-GOVERNANCE Like national and regional institutions. All of those are global problems that cannot be solved unilaterally or bilaterally.
future think tanks. more mercenaries and "intelligent" warfare Largest military spender [rank] 1. US Department of Defense 2030 105 . Shifting military powers. 2. 3. JAPAN US 1 RISING MILITARY SPENDING Between today and 2030. 4. ARMED CONFLICTS: More intra-state conflicts will occur. global defence spending … 2 TOWARDS INTRA-STATE CONFLICTS While the number of wars … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants CHINA RUSSIA 3 INCREASING ARMS TRADE As military expenditure rises.2. 5. so will the trade … 4 MORE PRIVATE SOLDIERS In the years to 2030. NIC. private military companies … 5 INCREASINGLY "INTELLIGENT" WARFARE Between today and 2030. … INDIA UK 2007 Sources: SIPRI.
refugees and humanitarian emergencies. could possibly turn into significant exporters during the next two decades. Even in 2030. up one third (34%) compared with ten years ago. with China the second largest spender by 2030. the US will have the largest military budget. In the years to 2030. or half of the current US military budget. If the current pace continues. world military expenditure is USD 1. each accounting for about 30% of global shipments. and India moving up from its current rank 8 to 4. However. while deliveries from EU members made up another 20%. 3 INCREASING ARMS TRADE As military expenditure rises. and be more lethal due to the availability of more destructive technologies. especially water. Today. military spending will almost double between today and 2030. the largest current arms importers in the world. 2 TOWARDS INTRA-STATE CONFLICTS While the number of wars between two or more countries is expected to fall further between today and 2030. Today. global defence spending will increase significantly. 106 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . will increasingly be over the rights to natural resources. Amongst the top ten importers of arms globally are also five Middle Eastern countries. including Saudi Arabia. on the other hand. This breakdown is expected to remain relatively stable in the future. which – with the support of the US – will import significantly more arms in the two decades to come.1%) will move up the list and will increase their military powers. currently USD 529 billion or 48% of the total military expenditure.6%) and India (2. China and India.1 trillion. there is likely to be an increasing number of intra-state conflicts (civil wars) and armed conflicts between state militaries and non-state actors. However. and create more internal displacements. intra-state conflicts will also have larger consequences for international security. overtaking Russia. so will the trade of arms and weapons. the US and Russia are the largest arms suppliers.ARMED CONFLICTS: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 RISING MILITARY SPENDING Between today and 2030. China (current share: 5. particularly terrorists. China’s military budget is expected to reach around USD 250 billion by 2030. Inter-state conflicts.
for smart weapons reducing wholesale destruction. with high growth rates expected for the next 23 years. etc. Technical advances will allow. warfare will get more "intelligent". Bush. and computer systems that control critical industrial processes. will acquire capabilities to conduct cyber attacks against the nodes of the world’s information infrastructure. Future wars will be increasingly about manipulating. increase the strength of the soldier. PMCs have become an over USD 100 billion a year industry. Censors and biological enhancements implanted in the human body will help dealing with biological warfare. force protection. including terrorists. with cyberwar becoming a reality. and robotic combatants. for example.ARMED CONFLICTS: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 4 MORE PRIVATE SOLDIERS In the years to 2030. After extensive use of private soldiers during the presidency of George W. telecommunication networks. While today. more precisionguided munitions. these for-profit companies will in many cases turn out to be cheaper than paying for traditional army personnel. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 5 INCREASINGLY "INTELLIGENT" WARFARE Between today and 2030. thus fundamentally changing the way of fighting. military training. and other security and warrelated services. private military companies will also increasingly help with war logistics. enhance visibility. private military companies (PMCs) and mercenary soldiers will increasingly support and even replace traditional armies. protecting and exploiting information. 107 . A growing range of actors. the UN still disapproves of PMCs. including the Internet. Besides providing soldiers.
3. NIC. Increasingly sophisticated international terrorism Security costs 1 INCREASE IN NON-MILITARY SECURITY THREATS While the number of armed … 2 HIGHER COST FOR SECURITY AND INSURANCE Governments. SECURITY: Non-military threats will rise with higher costs for security and insurance. private … 3 NEW THREATS FROM GLOBAL TERRORISM Over the next 23 years … 4 PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION Weapons of mass destruction … 5 TOUGHER SECURITY MEASURES Most governments will take … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period Security threats 2007 Source: SIPRI. UK Ministry of Defense 2030 108 .
security is high on the agenda in Western countries. security threats and violence will increasingly be of a non-military nature.g. ethnic conflicts. climate change. The number of cases in which the private insurance market alone cannot handle risks is expected to rise with the increase of large scale damage. private individuals and corporations alike will have to pay more for security. 109 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants While the number of armed conflicts between states will continue to decline. energy). proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. avian flu. mass migrations. genetic engineering. higher transaction costs in global trade and tourism threaten to push down productivity and increase costs significantly. Between today and 2030. including for protecting and insuring property. a long list of very different items will be at the center of security concerns: terrorism.g. Especially following 9/11. resource conflicts (e.g.SECURITY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 INCREASE IN NON-MILITARY SECURITY THREATS 2 HIGHER COST FOR SECURITY AND INSURANCE Governments. human trafficking).g. . pandemics (e. nuclear. Experts predict that the threat of most of these will rise. civil wars. attacks on information technology and "risk technologies" (e. pollution). and not least environmental dangers (e.g. new forms of nationalism. Ebola). narcotics. organized crime (e. threats such as natural disasters – predicted to occur with higher frequency and intensity in the next 23 years – are a major concern and cost factor. bio-tech). water. From an insurance perspective. operations and people. Calculations show that even though spending on security remains relatively low compared to defense budgets. arms.
including nuclear. will be at increased risk for proliferation before 2030. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION Weapons of mass destruction (WMD). 4. Pakistan. France. secret services. 5 TOUGHER SECURITY MEASURES Most governments will take new actions to react to rising security risks as we head toward 2030. security laws restricting personal freedom. In addition. 110 . communications and financing. US.SECURITY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 NEW THREATS FROM GLOBAL TERRORISM Over the next 23 years. Iran is expected to develop nuclear weapons in the absence of external intervention. more terrorist attacks are expected to occur. and new capacities for emergency situations and management. UK and North Korea). protection of critical infrastructure. New electromagnetic pulse weapons and carcinogenic chemical weapons are likely to become new WMDs before 2030.981 incidents with 9. Libya and Syria could have biological weapons by 2015. chemical and radiological weapons. continuing the trend which started during the 1990s. more decentralized organization. police and military will intensify significantly. it is feared that terrorists will gain possession of weapons of mass destruction within the next 23 years. as adopted in the years following 9/11. Terrorist groups have increasingly sophisticated technology. international terrorism is expected to significantly worsen. Since non-governmental actors are expected to acquire WMD in the near future. it will be increasingly difficult to control them. Last year. Russia. agencies. Despite international efforts and some successes in fighting terrorism. Among them will most likely be better border security. Cooperation between national ministries. biological. Pakistan. increased activity of intelligence units. Eight countries have openly declared their nuclear WMD and are known to have tested them (China. Given these factors.175 fatalities were attributed to terrorism. Open sources indicate that India. India. are likely to become even tighter in the next 23 years. Israel. and a rising number of individuals (micro-actors) that are spread around the world and prepared to act.
4. more … 4 INCREASING EFFORTS TO REDUCE VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN International organizations. Human Rights Watch 111 . … No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period Prosecution of human rights crimes 2007 2030 Sources: United Nations. Amnesty International. HUMAN RIGHTS: Fewer human rights abuses will take place globally. … 5 NEW CHALLENGES FROM TERRORISM Over the next 23 years. Intensified efforts to reduce violence against women Human rights abuses 1 FEWER HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES The global number of human … 2 MORE PROSECUTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS CRIMES A growing percentage of … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3 MORE COUNTRIES TO ABOLISH DEATH PENALTY Over the next 23 years.
More governments will be willing to bring even heads of state to justice for their crimes. The International Criminal Court (ICC) and other bodies. thanks to efforts by the new Human Rights Council. This increased awareness will pressure the relevant bodies to take action. However.HUMAN RIGHTS: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 FEWER HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES The global number of human rights abuses is expected to keep falling over the next 23 years. North Korea. 2 MORE PROSECUTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS CRIMES A growing percentage of human rights crimes will be prosecuted in the next 23 years. such as free speech. will investigate more situations of human rights crimes and prosecute the offenders. although not everywhere. NGOs and a fast rising number of national human rights institutions. and Zimbabwe. and where many experts predict few positive changes. Higher numbers of human rights abuse reports will be made public. other international institutions. include Belarus. Nevertheless. religious freedom. 35% of the world's people still live in countries that deny basic rights and civil liberties. especially in developing countries. In the years after the Universal Declaration of Human Rights was adopted in 1948. a free press. the world has witnessed impressive progress in human rights standards. 112 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . Countries in which human rights abuses occur frequently and systematically. fair trials. Cuba. Myanmar. Sudan. Turkmenistan. etc. democratic political processes. the proportion of human rights crimes that are prosecuted and punished will remain relatively small. including ad hoc international tribunals.
for example. police and other state authorities. 1. 102 countries reported cases of torture and abuse by security forces. there will be a number of new challenges to human rights. Already today. national governments. or 130 states. 4 INCREASING EFFORTS TO REDUCE VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN International organizations. The campaign against terrorism has already led to human rights violations in many countries worldwide: in 2006. significantly fewer than in preceding years. and that deny terrorist suspects due process and the protection of law. more countries are expected to abolish the death penalty. the death penalty is seldom reintroduced. the number of countries with the death penalty (69 today) is expected to shrink further. it is expected that the fight against terrorism will lead to more situations in which governments enact new security laws that violate basic rights and freedoms. hence. 62 have placed reservations on clauses. Today. In the years to come. There is no consensus as to whether the total number of incidents of violence against women will go down.591 people were executed in 25 countries and 3.861 people were sentenced to death in 55 countries. have abolished the death penalty in law or practice. and civil society will significantly intensify and better coordinate efforts to reduce violence against women in the next 23 years.HUMAN RIGHTS: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 MORE COUNTRIES TO ABOLISH DEATH PENALTY Over the next 23 years. and far more than one million women and girls are trafficked every year. two-thirds of all countries. While 185 states have ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Those most likely to dominate in the years to come are the dual threat of terrorism and the abuse of human rights in counterterrorism efforts. 5 NEW CHALLENGES FROM TERRORISM Over the next 23 years. Many countries have ratified several international treaties in which they simultaneously commit to not having the death penalty. and 10 have not signed or ratified it. In 2006. Over 50 countries have abolished the death penalty for all crimes since 1990. 113 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . Once abolished. every third women still suffers domestic violence.
5. … 2 PROFESSIONALIZATION OF CIVIL SOCIETY MOVEMENTS Non-profit and non.… 3 NEW GENERATION OF GIVERS A new generation of givers … 4 GROWING INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION Civil society activities. LSE Center for Civil Society 114 . New generation of philanthropy. growing international integration Number of civil society organizations 1 MORE VOLUNTARY ENGAGEMENT Over the next 23 years. John Hopkins Comparative Nonprofit Sector Project. … 5 GREATER INFLUENCE ON GLOBAL AGENDA Civil society will not merely … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period Influence on global agenda 2007 2030 Sources: United Nations. CIVIL SOCIETY: Non-profit and non-governmental organizations will gain in influence.
Civil society activity planning will be increasingly strategic. Civil society organizations will also offer more transparency regarding NGO decisions and actions.7 million of them are paid. environmental groups. is expected to rise fast. and the equivalent of 31 million full-time workers. the non-profit sector is already a major economic force in the world. with smaller ones and many of those based in the developing world following suit over the next two decades. In the US.0%) and in government (1. and social impact assessments. According to studies covering 26 countries. social and sports clubs. volunteering in NGOs. significantly faster than in the for-profit world (2.3 million are volunteers. the remaining 11. religious organizations. for example. health organizations. employment in this sector has grown by an annual 3. for example. Similar growth rates are expected for the future. laying out detailed plans for activities.2 trillion in expenditures. 19..CIVIL SOCIETY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE VOLUNTARY ENGAGEMENT Over the next 23 years. charities. Fundraising. and in other regions of the world as well. with more than USD 1. with the use of strategic tools already common in the business world. etc. Of those workers. 115 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . Civil society budgets and employment in civil society organizations will continue to expand rapidly.3%).1% over the past 23 years. is already being managed very professionally in larger NGOs in developed countries. More emphasis will be placed on accountability. 2 PROFESSIONALIZATION OF CIVIL SOCIETY MOVEMENTS Non-profit and non-governmental organizations will become more professionally organized and managed over the next 23 years.
health and social services. from remaking a country's education sector to curing cancer. expertise. already present in virtually every part of the world. 5 GREATER INFLUENCE ON GLOBAL AGENDA Civil society will not merely grow in terms of numbers. 116 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . both will increase their influence on decisions.CIVIL SOCIETY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 NEW GENERATION OF GIVERS A new generation of givers is emerging and will increasingly influence civil society activities. for example. will comprise a growing share of non-profit revenue. On average. The new generation of givers has sweeping international agendas. A number of new and globally acting civil society organizations are expected to be founded between now and 2030. and from corporations that are increasingly engaged in civil society activities. currently dominated by fees and public sector spending. but it will also become more influential over the next 23 years. namely education. As governments in many states increasingly transfer political power back to society. will be increasingly connected across borders and will perform many more globally coordinated actions as we approach 2030. and civil society organizations cooperate more closely with political decision-making bodies. further professionalization and interconnectedness of civil society actors will help to increase their say in the global agenda. with this focus to remain relatively constant until 2030. The level of personal involvement of the new generation of donors will rise. Donations from people like Bill Gates and George Soros. Moreover. 4 GROWING INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION Civil society activities. two-thirds of all non-profit paid employment are concentrated in the three traditional welfare services. or risk losing their funding. Civil society organizations will increasingly use global means of communication – primarily the Internet – to coordinate thoughts. Recipients of aid will increasingly be required to meet milestone goals and to produce measurable results. They will increasingly tackle giant issues. and they will also increasingly demand results. and actions.
Frank Trend. Tony Quo Vadis. Transition or Tremolo? © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Mumenthaler. Bret Is Freedom Predictable? van Oranje.LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – GLOBAL GOVERNANCE & SECURITY: Survey results and opinion editorials SURVEY RESULTS Most pressing issues in 2030 Implications of the trends Shifts in relative power between now and 2030 Power to influence global trends Division of power in 2030 Statements about the future Weak signals 117 OPINION EDITORIALS Fernandez. Mabel Human rights in 2030 . Christian Understanding Interconnections of Global Challenges Stephens. ASEAN? Krings.
% of GDP) > Arms trade (USD. countries) > Human rights abuse (number. % of countries worldwide) > Expenditure on defense (USD.FOR FURTHER READING – GLOBAL GOVERNANCE & SECURITY: Key sources. IMF > North Atlantic Treaty Organization. and actors MOST IMPORTANT SOURCES > WEF: Global Risks 2007 > NIC: Mapping the Global Future > DCDC: Global Strategic Trends > SIPRI: Yearbook 2007 > US DoD: Quadrennial Defense Review Report 2006 > HSRP: Human Security Report > JHU: Global Civil Society Ata-Glance > Human Rights Watch Report 2006 MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS > Members in international organizations / signers of treaties (number. indicators. NATO > Amnesty International > UN Human Rights Council > Universal Declaration of Human Rights 118 . countries) > Non-governmental organizations (number) KEY GOVERNING ACTORS AND AGREEMENTS > United Nations > World Bank © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > International Monetary Fund.
Global governance & security 7. Development & poverty 6. Environment 4. General trends 2. Values & society 2007 2030 119 . Health 3. Education 5. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS 1.B.
different female migration. New barriers to free access. RELIGION: The number of adherents will rise and shift geographically with more religious movements and radicalism gaining momentum © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3. MIGRATION: The number of international migrants will rise with a shift towards developed countries.OVERVIEW: Key trends in values & society 1. DIVERSITY: Minorities will be granted more rights. URBANIZATION: The majority of the world’s population will live in urban areas and slums will grow. increasing industry consolidation. MEDIA: The Internet will increasingly dominate media services. better integration of people with disabilities 2. new policies 5. Greater equality for women. especially in Asia and Africa 4. greater personalization 120 . New mega-cities will emerge.
better integration of people with disabilities Minority rights 1 MORE RIGHTS FOR MINORITIES Minorities – defined as … 2 MOVING TOWARD GENDER EQUALITY The status of women is … © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3 BETTER INTEGRATION OF DISABLED PEOPLE There will be significant … 4 MORE LIBERALIZATION CONCERNING SEXUAL ORIENTATION The number of countries with … 5 MORE COMPANIES WITH DIVERSITY MANAGEMENT Actively managing diversity … Gender equality No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period 2007 Sources: UNDP. Greater equality for women. future think tanks 2030 121 . BOND. DIVERSITY: Minorities will be granted more rights.1.
knowledge access and the standard of living of women and men. Nevertheless.9. gender or sexual orientation – are expected to gain more rights by 2030. 2 MOVING TOWARD GENDER EQUALITY The status of women is expected to further improve over the next 23 years. there is still a long way to go. 122 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . According to a UN gender-related development index which compares life expectancy. There is also progress concerning the climate for minorities: the percentage of countries with open political competition. and this trend is expected to continue. with 20% even exceeding 0. language. culture. the gender gap will not be fully eradicated by 2030. as their political and economic participation grow. However. with the widest differences found in developing countries. Over the past decades. While only 1% of all countries had an index value higher than 0. a climate of respect for civil liberties and independent media is up from 34% 23 years ago to 47% today. 36% of all countries have reached this level today.DIVERSITY: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE RIGHTS FOR MINORITIES Minorities – defined as subordinate groups in terms of nationality. The Netherlands is the only OECD country today where ethnic minorities are proportionally represented in the lower house. Women are also becoming more empowered. many minorities have been granted autonomy or even political independence. The number of countries granting more rights has increased significantly over the past few years. there is a strong trend toward more gender equality.8 (1.0 means full gender equality) 35 years ago. religion.
While today. there are some countries. Progress will be due to better technical support. diversity among employees will also be boosted by the lack of highly skilled workers available at home. in Russia. In the past 15 years. In the developed world. The adoption of the UN Convention on the Rights and Dignity of Persons with Disabilities in 2006 – the first human rights treaty of the 21st century – paves the way. In addition. These factors will slow down liberalization.DIVERSITY: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 BETTER INTEGRATION OF DISABLED PEOPLE There will be significant progress in the next 23 years regarding the situation of disabled people. diversity management will have become standard in smaller companies as well by 2030. e. more recognition by non-disabled people and the need for highly skilled disabled people in the workforce. is used to adapt products and services to different countries' needs as well as to develop new products in mixed teams. however. only big multinational players make systematic use of the diversity of their employees. for example Nigeria and Zimbabwe. since the majority of today's 650 million disabled people live there. 5 MORE COMPANIES WITH DIVERSITY MANAGEMENT Actively managing diversity will become standard in more companies over the next 23 years. But although the general trend is toward more liberalization. 123 . which have recently tightened laws or are considering doing so. The extent and pace of progress in the integration of disabled people. depends much on what is done in developing countries. the social climate regarding homosexuality often lags behind legislation. but won't stop its progress. same-sex marriage has been allowed in six countries and legislation concerning homosexuality has been liberalized in several countries. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 MORE LIBERALIZATION CONCERNING SEXUAL ORIENTATION The number of countries with liberal legislation concerning sexual orientation will increase.g. for example. Knowledge from different cultural backgrounds.
World Christian Trends 2030 124 . the number of religious adherents . Islam will grow fastest between … 3 REGIONAL SHIFTS Since ever more people will join a religious faith or convert … 4 DEEPENING RELIGIOUS COMMITMENT Over the next 23 years … 5 MORE ACTIVISM AND RADICALISM In the next 23 years. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 Christians Muslims Hindus Buddhists Jews 200710 15 20 25 2030 35 5 30 Year 2007 Sources: Religion facts.. 2 ISLAM FASTEST-GROWING Of all the world religions. more .2.. RELIGION: The number of adherents will rise and shift geographically with more religious movements and radicalism gaining momentum Adherents [million] 1 MORE ADHERENTS Over the next 23 years..
RELIGION: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE ADHERENTS 2 ISLAM FASTEST-GROWING Of all the world religions.98 billion people or about one-fourth will follow Islam.78 billion.9 billion or 88. and Arabs account for only around 20% of all Muslims worldwide. the number will have increased by 660. In other words: About every fourth person (23.5 billion out of the world's 6.12 billion adherents in 2030. Today. or over five percentage points faster than the global population. there will be 6. As today. or one-eighth of all people. there are 1. which would have Islam surpass Christianity as the most populous faith community worldwide by 2030. Pakistan. the number of religious adherents will rise by 1.98 billion. 1. About one billion people will be either nonreligious or atheists. Three religions will have more than one billion followers in 2030: Christians will account for 2. Hindus will constitute the third-largest group of religious followers with 1.5 billion (85. up only marginally from today. While today. Iran.000 to 1.4%) will follow Islam 23 years from now. the first four having more than 100 million adherents each by 2030.4 billion people. or about one-third. 5. Islam will grow fastest between today and 2030. 125 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Over the next 23 years.32 billion Muslims in the world.8%) follow a religion. or one in five people (20. India. and Turkey will have the most Muslims in 2030. Over fifty countries have Muslim-majority populations. By 2030. . Some sources – many of them Muslim – predict future percentages closer to 30%. Bangladesh.4%).1% adherents of any of the world religions in 2030. Indonesia.
social services. They also have a tendency to make sharp distinctions between good and evil. etc. Especially among migrants. The largest impact on society and politics is expected to come from radical Islam. More social and political turmoil. religions will also move geographically. 5 MORE ACTIVISM AND RADICALISM In the next 23 years. more religious adherents. will become 'activists'. Western Europe. there is likely to be friction in mixed communities as activists attempt to gain converts from other religious groups. giving them more of an African. except for migrant communities from Africa and the Middle East. which experts have correlated with high numbers of radical adherents. religion provides followers with a community and social safety net in times of need. religious identity is likely to become an increasingly important factor in how people define themselves. Christianity. some of it violent. and a religious belief system that connects local conflicts to a larger struggle. is expected. Asian or developing world face. Many of the church's traditional functions – education. but also among other groups. across all religions. and other religions are spreading in countries such as China as Marxism declines. Most of the religions that will see more activism also have a disproportionate number of young people. – will continue to be performed by the state. Buddhism. too.RELIGION: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 REGIONAL SHIFTS Since ever more people will join a religious faith or convert from one faith to another. a shift that will reshape the traditionally Western-based Christian institutions. however. In particular. By 2030. and the proportion of evangelical converts in traditionally Catholic Latin America will rise. 4 DEEPENING RELIGIOUS COMMITMENT Over the next 23 years. China and Nigeria will have some of the largest Christian communities in the world. including Muslim extremists. stands apart from this growing global religiosity. 126 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . For example. Their worldview typically advocates a change of society.
a. UN Habitat 2030 127 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .1 1. World Bank. URBANIZATION: The majority of the world’s population will live in urban areas and slums will grow. both the number and percentage … 2 AFRICA AND ASIA CATCHING UP In the next 23 years … LATIN AMERICA NORTH AMERICA ASIA OCEANIA 3 MEGACITIES By 2030. especially in Asia and Africa Urban population growth [% p.8 1.6 1. about one billion people live in slums. the number of megacities (more than 10 million … 4 GROWING SLUMS Today. with … 5 BIGGER CHALLENGES Fast urban growth can be both beneficial and … 80 90 Share of urban population [%] Bubble size = Urban population 2030 2007 Sources: United Nations.3.7 1.0 01 30 40 50 60 0 Bubble size = Urban population 2007 70 EUROPE AFRICA 1 MORE URBAN DWELLERS Between now and 2030.] 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1. New mega-cities will emerge.
will result in almost 1. urbanization rates in Africa and Asia will rise about four times faster than in Europe and the Americas. both the number and percentage of people living in cities will increase dramatically.URBANIZATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 MORE URBAN DWELLERS 2 AFRICA AND ASIA CATCHING UP In the next 23 years. Urbanization levels will rise to 51% in Africa and 54% in Asia. . 128 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Between now and 2030. 1. from 3. or from 50. the urbanization rate averages only 56% in 2030 (up from 43% today). will be still much higher in the developed world: In 2030. The level of urbanization. Today. 81% of all people in developed countries will live in cities (up from 74% today).1% of the total population. plus a high and steady growth rate.2 billion to 4. In developing countries. A large starting population.7 billion new urban citizens will move into or be born in cities that are located in developing countries.6 out of those 1. By then.0% to 60. Africa and Asia are the least urbanized areas in the world (38% and 40% respectively). however. almost 7 out of every 10 urban residents in the world will be living in Africa or Asia.9 billion.5 billion more people living in Asian and African cities in 2030. making the urban population in developing countries nearly four times as large as that in developed regions by 2030.
suicide and disease. but also to make urban development sustainable. up from 22 today. Poverty. and health care. and communication infrastructure will be increasingly challenging. In 2030. electricity.4 million). alcoholism. not only to keep pace with the fast-growing population. There is no consensus as to which are the biggest challenges for all cities in the next 23 years.3 million). housing. While one out of every two new urban dwellers in Sub-Saharan Africa. and Dhaka (32. All but five of the world's mega-cities will be in the developing world. Many cities lack personnel and financial resources for developing the infrastructure. sanitation. with Lagos.1 million). will continue to challenge urban life. the number of mega-cities (more than 10 million inhabitants) will have increased to 30. Fighting crime and providing security will certainly be high on the list for many of them. These cities are so huge that they will continue to change the dynamics of urbanization: People commute to work from densely populated outlying villages or suburbs. as well as water. with this number expected to rise to at least 1. crime. the relative share of slum population is expected to decline in the rest of the world. with more than 70% of the urban population living in slums in some African cities. and Delhi growing fastest. about one billion people live in slums. Guangzhou.7 million). Delhi (37. The largest cities in 2030 will be Tokyo (38. along with many other problems associated with slums. Lagos (33. 129 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . Mumbai (32. Slum growth is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. with almost two-thirds in Asia alone. most slums will still lack adequate access to clean water. Karachi. and city centers stagnate as the economic base shifts outwards to peri-urban areas. Providing employment.7 million). and education facilities. Dhaka. South and West Asia will be living in slums.7 billion by 2030. Cities with half a million inhabitants will grow even faster.URBANIZATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 NEW MEGACITIES By 2030. transport. drug addiction. 4 GROWING SLUMS Today. Jakarta. 5 BIGGER CHALLENGES Fast urban growth can be both beneficial and problematic for cities.
4. MIGRATION: The number of international migrants will rise with a shift towards developed countries, different female migration, new policies
Net migration [in 1,000] 1.800 1.300 800 300 -200 -700 -1.200 -1.700
NORTH AMERICA EUROPE OCEANIA AFRICA LATIN AMERICA ASIA
1 RISING NUMBER OF MIGRANTS The total number of … 2 FURTHER CONCENTRATION Over the next 23 years, the flow of migrants will become … 3 INTO DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Migrants will increasingly … 4 MORE WOMEN MIGRATING ALONE In the past, female migration … 5 MORE MIGRATION MANAGEMENT The policy question is no …
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Sources: UN, World Bank, UNHCR
MIGRATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 RISING NUMBER OF MIGRANTS The total number of international migrants – people that permanently cross borders, be it for work, studies, refuge or asylum, or to follow family members – will rise significantly between now and 2030. Today, there are 191 million migrants worldwide, up 75% from 109 million 23 years ago. If the current pace of an annual 2.7% increase continues, there will be about 352 million migrants in 2030. International migrants comprise 3.0% of the global population today, up from 2.3% in 1985. In addition to international migrants, there are 24.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in at least 52 countries as a result of conflict, with this number also on the rise. 2 FURTHER CONCENTRATION Over the next 23 years, the flow of migrants will become increasingly concentrated. Already today, three-quarters of all international migrants are concentrated in just 28 countries. Between 1990 and today, only 17 countries accounted for more than 75% of the increase in migrants, with the US gaining 15 million migrants, and Germany and Spain over 4 million each. By contrast, the number of international migrants decreased in 72 countries. The US is by far the most frequent destination, hosting 20% of all migrants worldwide, followed by Russia (6.4%), Germany (5.3%), the Ukraine (4.6%), France (3.4%), and Saudi Arabia (3.3%). 3 INTO DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Migrants will increasingly head to developed countries. Already today, 61% of all migrants live in developed countries, up from 53% in 1990. This proportion is expected to rise further by 2030, with the share of Europe (currently 33.6% of global migration stock) and North America (23.3%) rising. Since 1990, the number of migrants to developing countries has increased by barely 3 million, while the remaining 33 million (92%) of all 36 million new migrants have moved to developed countries. Nevertheless, there will be still much migration among developing countries, but with return flows canceling out new outflows – for example, in the past 15 years, 21 million refugees were repatriated, the large majority to developing countries. 131
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
MIGRATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 MORE WOMEN MIGRATING ALONE
In the past, female migration most often meant accompanying their spouses or joining them later. Today and even more so in the future, women leave their children and families behind and move abroad to work. Women account for 49.6% of all migrants, a figure that is expected to be relatively stable over the next 23 years. However, in developed countries, female migrants outnumber male migrants and their share is going to rise further. Often engaged in domestic labor and hidden within private households, these migrants are particularly vulnerable to sexual abuse, rape, slavery-like labor conditions, and discrimination of all kinds. The policy question is no longer whether to have migration, but rather how to manage it effectively so as to enhance its positive and reduce its negative impacts. Over the next 23 years, most governments are expected to become more active in handling migration, not least because net migration will likely account for all the population growth in more developed regions between 2010 and 2030. Over the past ten years, the number of governments wishing to reduce international migration declined from 40 to 22%. Most governments of receiving countries will be taking steps to facilitate the inflow of the types of migrants that they need, especially skilled migrants and temporary low-skilled workers. Governments of countries of origin will also become more proactive, by encouraging the return of their citizens and strengthening ties with their expatriate communities abroad.
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
5 MORE MIGRATION MANAGEMENT
the Internet is but one … 2 NEW LIMITS TO MEDIA ACCESS While technical limits to … 3 PERSONALIZATION OF MEDIA CONTENT Media content will be … 4 MORE INFOTAINMENT Demand for infotainment and sensationalist news will … 5 CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN THE MEDIA SECTOR M&A activities in the media . greater personalization Internet as dominating media channel 1 INCREASINGLY INTERNETDOMINATED MEDIA Today. New barriers to free access.5.. increasing industry consolidation. Horizons 2020 2030 133 . © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period Personalization of media content 2007 Sources: PwC.. MEDIA: The Internet will increasingly dominate media services.
since more states will permanently or temporarily restrict the use of media services. Technically. Over the next 23 years.MEDIA: Text behind animated chart (1/2) 1 INCREASINGLY INTERNET-DOMINATED MEDIA 2 NEW LIMITS TO MEDIA ACCESS While technical limits to media access will vanish in the next 23 years. international institutions will increasingly advocate making the "right to information" a fundamental human right. journals. Moreover. the Internet is but one of many media channels. however. the consolidation and upgrading of broadband mobile and WLAN networks make Internet access available at almost every spot on earth. or 40% of the total spent on global media and entertainment. new barriers to access and use of global media are expected to arise. 134 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Today. However. Despite the domination of the Internet. books. The rising importance of the Internet is reflected in a forecast higher number of hours spent on the Internet per day. While global media and entertainment expenditure will roughly quadruple between today and 2030. print products like newspapers. newspapers and journals. up from only 14% today. next to television. and analog services will be increasingly substituted by the Internet and interactive television. and books will also grow over the next 23 years – albeit with a smaller growth rate than the Internet – and continue to exist well beyond 2030. even in most parts of the developing world. however. it will become the dominating and defining channel for all media. and in the global figures of media expenditure: About USD 2.6 trillion. will be spent on Internet services in 2030. since more media will converge toward Internet Protocol. although numerous websites will be accessible. etc. Internet spending will rise almost tenfold. and web catalogues and intelligent search engines will make it easier to find content. . top-quality content will be restricted to subscribers and subject to increasing fees.
there will be a rising supply of personal media contributions. and small TV channels. Nevertheless. Suppliers of infotainment are often multinational media companies as people prefer news about international VIPs. On the more regional level. with people around the world increasingly using blogs. In addition. media services combining information and entertainment are requested by the majority of people in 2030. their power will be mitigated by a high number of small media providers. Interactive TV programs. however. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4 MORE INFOTAINMENT Demand for infotainment and sensationalist news will grow over the next 23 years. Since people will increasingly suffer from information overload and want to take their minds off work and everyday life. interactive programs. A few big international media conglomerates that operate on a growing number of continents will rule a large part of the global media sector. publishers of special interest magazines. 5 CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN THE MEDIA SECTOR M&A activities in the media sector will continue through 2030. and especially interactive Internet content will increase.MEDIA: Text behind animated chart (2/2) 3 PERSONALIZATION OF MEDIA CONTENT Media content will be increasingly tailored to individual users or specific user groups. and their own webpages for the distribution of media content. consuming detailed analyses and listening to demanding TV or radio programs is expected to fall across all regions of the world. media content produced for a larger group of users will still play an important role in 2030. The ability and interest in reading comprehensive texts. resulting in increasing concentration of power. Since an increasing share of media services is becoming interactive. personalized radio broadcasts. 135 . users will be able to select content or programs and have them packaged automatically.
Shamil Whose Life in 2030? Sorkin. Caroline The Business Case of Homogeneity? © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Idriss. Andrew Mapping The Medium and the Message .LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – VALUES & SOCIETY: Survey results and opinion editorials SURVEY RESULTS Most important events / discoveries since 1980 Most pressing issues in 2030 Implications of the trends Power to influence global trends Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large amount of money Online social networking Weak signals 136 OPINION EDITORIALS Bharadwai. Neeraj Are We Underestimating the Impact of Computer … Casey.
indicators. UNPD © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > United Nations Population Fund. UNFPA > UN Habitat > UN High Commissioner for Refugees.FOR FURTHER READING – VALUES & SOCIETY: Key sources. %) > Share of rural / urban population (%) > Population density (people per square kilometer) > Religious adherents (number. UNHCR 137 . focusing on international migration and development > UN: World Urbanization Prospects > UN Habitat: Global Urban Observatory > RF: Religion Facts > TNS Infratest: Horizons 2020 MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS > Population (number. and actors MOST IMPORTANT SOURCES > UN: World population monitoring. %) > Gender parity (index value) > Time spent using media (hours per day) > Internet use (hours per day) KEY GOVERNING ACTORS AND AGREEMENTS > United Nations Population Division.
Collective Opinion: Results of Young Global Leaders Survey 2.C. Individual Opinions: Young Global Leaders Opinion Editorials 138 . OPINIONS OF YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS 1.
OPINIONS OF YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERs 1. Individual Opinions: Young Global Leaders Opinion Editorials 139 .C. Collective Opinion: Results of Young Global Leaders Survey 2.
Key issues and power shifts B. Personal choices C. Weak signals © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 140 .Overview A.
A. Key issues and power shifts 141 .
9 > AIDS > Globalization > Emergence and opening of China and India Question: "Looking back.3 19. what have been the two most important events or discoveries that have radically changed the world since 1980?" 142 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .1.8 29.0 7.3 5.4 8.2 7.0 4. the fall of the Berlin Wall and 9/11 terrorism [% of all respondents] OTHER ISSUES Internet Fall of Soviet Union/Berlin Wall September 11/terrorism Communication technologies/ mobile phones Personal Computers/IT Biotech & genetic engineering Global sarming Collapse of communism Other 13.4 5. Most important events/discoveries since 1980: The rise of the Internet.
9 8.0 21.2.9 4. the rise of emerging economies and an increasing scarcity of resources [% of all respondents] OTHER TRENDS Global warming/climate change Emerging economies Scarcity of resources Globalization Economic disparity Alternative energy Demographic shifts Other 6.2 > > > > Migration Biotech Health issues Religious tensions/ conflicts > Environment > Terrorism > Internet Question: "What are the most important trends that will impact the world in 2030?" 143 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .9 15.3 4.1 5.7 11. Most important trends between now and 2030: Global warming.
0 20.9 Most important Very important Important Question: "What are the most pressing issues facing the next generation of leaders that require global solutions?" (Please categorize the issues according to their relative importance in 2030) 144 .4 12.1 Not important 59.7 11.9 3.4 50.7 34.9 17.3 25.4 Crash of one or more major financial markets 7.9 2.5 45.3 100.7 99.2 36.8 14.3 20.6 33.9 14.5 35.6 44.7 50.8 39.6 15.7 27.7 29.6 16.9 24.6 10.1 12.4 27.2 5.0 32.0 20.6 36.1 59.0 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Migration 11. Most pressing issues in 2030: Climate change. the depletion of natural resources and asymmetric warfare [% of all respondents] Climate change Depletion of natural resources Asymmetric warfare Economic imbalance between countries/regions Hunger & malnutrition Communicable diseases More religious radicalism Armed conflict between leading nation states Tensions between models of society/culture 36.0 10.3.7 2.4 41.9 2.7 54.9 2.2 39.
" > "Change economic theory." 145 .4." > Global climate change is of paramount importance." Question: "Please comment on the implications of the relative importance assigned to the issues above. The lack of action on that topic would make any other aspect of human behavior moot." © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > "Climate change and depletion of natural resources will force mankind to adapt and redefine or way of living in a broad sense." > "Climate change will enforce migration of populations facing drought/starvation. which the current political/economic system does not support. Implications of the trends: Comments of the Young Global Leaders (1/3) > "All of these issues require long-term globally coordinated responses. models and the indicators we are looking at … we are observing the wrong indicators. They are not anymore a proxy of the real trends.
The major issues will be found at the individual and community level.g. it might take a major crisis/war/extreme event for new institutions that are already needed to be effectively launched." 146 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants ." > Neither hot war." > "Looking at global trends. nor any kind of interstate conflict will be the major issue. We shouldn't simply see them as "linear" and evolutionary." > "None can pretend to solve the global issues alone.Implications of the trends: Comments of the Young Global Leaders (2/3) > "Informal groups with high technology knowledge and earth sensitive culture will rise against organizations with a traditional way of doing things (e. nor cold war. we should also consider the potential implication of a major disruption in one of them. but as history already showed several times. web societies).
" > "The issues above are happened from each countries interest protection." © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > "Tension will increase between leaders and followers (be it national." 147 . As a business man I can't believe I just said that." > "It is time that we put the future of our planet ahead of our own economic interests. or other) as the followers will look to the leaders to 'solve' the above issues and the issues fail." > "Most conflict arises out of the people not having anything to loose supporting people who have hunger for power in hopes and pursuit of promises for a life worth living. there is a lower-level poverty and middle class failure that should be treated with the same urgency. corp. Why? Because relative deprivation within societies and within regions and the world can be more destabilizing than absolute power.Implications of the trends: Comments of the Young Global Leaders (3/3) > "We must also remember that beyond the extreme poverty of the more than one billion.
Power to influence global trends: Nation states and multilateral institutions remain the most important players Multistakeholderplatforms Major cities and municipalities Multilateral institutions Powerful individuals Informal bodies Global players (sorted alphabetically) Issues (sorted alphabetically) Armed conflict Asymmetric warfare Climate change Communicable diseases Financial market crash Depletion of natural resources Economic imbalances Hunger/malnutrition Migration Religious radicalism Tensions between models of society/culture Most influential 2nd most influential 3rd most influential Churches/ religious organizations Nation states NGOs Question: "Which of the above issues (see 2.5.3) can most be influenced by these agents?" (Please indicate a maximum of 2 actors for each issue) 148 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .
9 32.7 42.) Churches/religious organizations Multilateral institutions (UN.1 57.9 75.8 30.) Informal bodies (G8) Nation states 62.6. etc. Shifts in relative power between now and 2030: Multinational corporations and individuals will gain power. etc.2 69.6 60. ASEAN.4 24. NATO.3 51.7 39. nation states will have less power [% of all respondents] Will LOSE power until 2030 Multinational corporations Powerful individuals or groups of individuals Online social communities Multi-stakeholder-platforms Major cities and municipalities NGOs Regional federations (EU.9 Will GAIN power until 2030 85.1 67. WTO.6 14.1 35.2 81.7 83.8 18.3 64.6 37.3 16.4 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Question: "How will the relative power of global players evolve over the next 25 years?" (Please indicate which of these actors will have relatively more or less power than at present) 149 .4 48.
6 98.8 46.7 45.9 85.5 3.4 52. North America and Europe will be the leading regions – Asia and South America on the rise Regions [% of all respondents] East Asia/Pacific North America Europe South & Central Asia MENA South America Sub-Saharan Africa Leading LESS POWER in 2030 MORE POWER in 2030 21. relevant power. Leading powers in 2030: East Asia.2 48.8 10.9 21. non-relevant power in 2030 150 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .8 10.7 3.3 0.4 45.4 2.1 14. and (b) represent a leading power.1 45.5 19.6 68.0 Non-relevant 73. important power.2 44.6 0.4 57.2 43.4 60.6 42.9 Important 1.7 3.2 10.6 78.4 Relevant Question: "How do you see the relative power of the following regions developing during the next 25 years?" Please indicate whether the following nations and regions will (a) gain more or less power in the next 25 years.7 51.9 4.2 22.9 0.7.6 39.9 1.0 53.0 70.5 37.8 28.0 29.
8 6.6 96.4 85.6 73.9 88.4 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 69.8 Question: "How will the relative power of the following nation-states develop over the next 25 years?" Please indicate whether the following nations will (a) gain more or less power in the next 25 years.6 30.0 7.4 50.6 99. India and Russia are seen as leading in 2030 – European states and the US losing power Nation states [% of all respondents] China USA India Russia UK Germany Brazil France Leading LESS POWER in 2030 MORE POWER in 2030 12. the US.0 Non-relevant 87.1 35.7 31.6 4.Among the nation states.7 24.4 20.6 14. non-relevant power in 2030 151 .4 19.6 47.4 39. and (b) represent a leading power.4 2.4 4.1 40.1 8.6 2.4 3.2 51.4 Important 0.4 76.1 10.0 48.0 30.1 22.6 8.2 77. important power. relevant power.4 11.0 Relevant 13.7 22.2 3.5 46.3 56.2 89.4 3.6 23. China.
7 26.9 84.Among the regional federations.3 51.1 9.9 8.2 23.1 LESS POWER in 2030 MORE POWER in 2030 29.0 66. the European Union and ASEAN will be leading – the Pan-African Union will also gain power Regional federations [% of all respondents] European Union ASEAN NAFTA Pan-African Union 2.5 18.9 70. non-relevant power in 2030 152 .5 52.9 40.9 27. and (b) represent a leading power. important power.4 3.6 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Leading Important Relevant Non-relevant Question: "How will the relative power of the following regional federations develop over the next 25 years?" Please indicate whether the following regional federations will (a) gain more or less power in the next 25 years.6 33.9 39.1 15.0 60.0 18. relevant power.3 37.4 40.5 40.
8.1 Multi-polar balance of power Question: "In 2030.3 70. Division of power in 2030: A multi-polar balance of power is seen as most likely Division of power [%] Bi-polar Single power Power sharing between multilateral institutions Other 7.8 1.3 5. which of the following situations are most likely?" 153 .5 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 15.
9. Statements about the future: The world in 2030 …
[% of all respondents]
Will have more democratic societies Will be on average more peaceful than today Was/is involved in a major war affecting multiple countries Will have experienced one major new pandemic Will have experienced the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) – As a threat by non state actors Will have experienced the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) – Used by states Will have been able to make sufficiently critical progress in managing climate change in a sustainable manner Question: "The world in 2030…" (Please indicate the appropriate answer)
NO YES 23.9 53.4 61.4 20.9 34.6 79.5 25.6 20.5 74.4 46.6 38.6 79.1 64.4
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
B. Personal choices
1. Country in which Young Global Leaders would spend a one-year sabbatical for professional development: the US, China, India, UK
[% of all respondents]
USA China India UK Japan All Europe (including UK) 2.2 14.5 7.5 6.0 32.1 28.4
OTHER COUNTRIES MENTIONED
> > > > > > > > > > > > Austria Australia Bhutan Brazil Chile Denmark Finland France Germany Hong Kong Iraq Israel > > > > > > > > > > > > Madagascar Malaysia Russia Singapore South Africa Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Ukraine United Arab Emirates
Question: "If you had the opportunity to do a one-year sabbatical, in which country would you spend it, if you wanted to improve your professional experience?"
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
2. Country in which Young Global Leaders would spend a one-year sabbatical for personal development: India, the US, China, Italy, South Africa
[% of all respondents]
OTHER COUNTRIES MENTIONED
India USA China Italy South Africa UK Australia Brazil France Japan New Zealand Spain 16.3 11.1 9.6 5.9 5.2 4.4 3.7 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 > > > > > > > > > Afghanistan Antigua Argentina Belarus Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia Cameroon Cayman Islands > Costa Rica > Czech Republic > > > > > > > > > > > > > Dominica Egypt France Germany Indonesia Israel Kiribati Malaysia Myanmar Mexico Nepal Oman Palestine > > > > > > > > > Peru Russia Seychelles Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Thailand Turkey United Arab Emirates > Vatican City State
Question: "If you had the opportunity to do a one-year sabbatical, in which country would you spend it for your personal development?"
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
3. Foreign language that Young Global Leaders would recommend a 15year-old to learn: Chinese/Mandarin, English, Spanish and Arabic
Share of languages [% of all respondents]
Chinese/Mandarin English Spanish Arabic Russian Japanese Hindi French 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 4.3 9.4
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Question: "If you were asked by a 15-year-old friend or family member which language (other than her/his mother tongue) s/he should learn? What would you answer?"
4. Organization in which Young Global Leaders would recommend a 15-year-old to do an internship: Small high-growth company, multinational corporation
Share of organization type [% of all respondents]
Smaller high growth company Multinational corporation NGO Media/communication company Multilateral political institution National/local political institution Family/midcap company
All YGLs Business YGLs only
32.6 19.3 11.4 12.6 17.0 28.6
5.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 3.0
Question: "If you were asked by a 15-year-old friend or family member what type of organization s/he should do an internship with? What would you answer?"
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
7 14.0 1.2 2.6 14.9 3.4 OTHER COUNTRIES MENTIONED > > > > > > > > > > > Angola Austria Bangladesh Belarus Cambodia Chile Costa Rica Egypt Ethiopia Haiti Honduras > > > > > > > > > > > Hong Kong Japan Mexico Norway Pakistan Philippines Romania Saudi Arabia Singapore Sweden United Arab Emirates 10. Brazil [% of all respondents] India USA China Brazil UK Germany Russia Switzerland Vietnam Other All Europe All YGLs Business YGLs only 8.3 27.0 15.9 2. in which country would you invest?" 160 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .5 18.2 1. the US.3 20.5.4 2.6 24. Country in which Young Global Leaders would invest half of their personal financial assets: India.3 14.3 12.8 Question: "If you had to allocate half of your liquid financial capital to invest long term (>5 years).3 18. China.2 4.9 2.4 2.2 2.
3 11.9 11.3 11.1 Question: "If you had to allocate half of your liquid financial capital to invest long term (>5 years).9 5.0 19. trade.0 4.8 OTHER ISSUES MENTIONED > > > > > > > > Insurance/reinsurance Entertainment Mining & metals Retail & consumer goods Automotive Construction Aviation.5 4.8 13.8 6.2 23.6. health. private equity/venture capital [% of all respondents] Energy Health IT Private equity/venture capital Banking/capital markets Real estate Food & beverages Telecommunications Logistics & transportation Professional services All YGLs 2. IT.4 Business YGLs only 4. travel & tourism Holding.4 1. import/export .7 2. in which industry would you invest?" 161 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 7.5 6. Industry in which Young Global Leaders would invest half of their personal financial assets: Energy.8 4.0 10.5 12.4 5.
7.3 2. Global issue to which Young Global Leaders would allocate half of personal financial assets: Climate change. hunger & malnutrition. which one would it be?" 162 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants > Religious radicalism > Crash of major financial market > Armed conflict between leading nation states > Migration > Asymmetric warfare .3 7.2 11.9 Business YGLs only Question: "If you had to allocate half of your liquid financial capital to invest long term (>5 years) to solving one of these global challenges.0 8.3 5.2 5.5 15.8 8.6 12.6 43.9 13. depletion of natural resources [% of all respondents] Climate change Hunger & malnutrition Depletion of resources Economic imbalance Tensions between models of society/culture Communicable diseases All YGLs OTHER ISSUES MENTIONED 38.
6 18.9 2.0 Education USD 1 m Climate Alternative energy Health Hunger Poverty Resource depletion Religious Intercultural underradicalism standing USD 100 m USD 10 bn Question: "If you had a one-time opportunity to spend the amounts below to improve the state of the world. what would you allocate it to?" 163 .6 5.4 3.9 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 10.0 9.9 0.8 4.2 1.8 12.0 0.8 0.7 9.4 7.4 2.0 9.2 13.6 4.4 9.0 3. alternative energy and health [% of all respondents] 20.8 5. climate.6 Environment 0. Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large amount of money: Education.8.6 Aids 3.3 1.2 5.8 8.4 16.2 4.8 7.5 17.5 1.8 9.
what would you allocate it to?" 164 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .9. Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large amount of money: Other ideas USD 1 m > Girl/child abuse > Global values > Educating business on case for genuine diversity > Strengthening grassroots civil society > Website for information dissemination in developing world > That doesn't get you anywhere > Emergency relief > Children's sport programs USD 100 m > Discrimination/emancipation > Campaigns to eliminate trade barriers and subsidies > Creation of independent media in developing countries > Financing social entrepreneurs > Improving quality of cities in developing countries > Campaign to increase immigration of low-skilled workers from developing world > Network organizations complementary to governmental ones (like International Crisis Group) USA 10 bn > Resource depletion > Democracy > Create progressive global media empire > Global cooperatives > Infrastructure in 3rd World > Limit use of automobile > Research in biotech > Debt relief cluster of promising African countries – but then be allowed to govern for 10 years! > Reforming soil pollution and teaching agriculture > Space exploration Question: "If you had a one-time opportunity to spend the amounts below to improve the state of the world.
0 5.3 5.8 27.4 3.6 15+ 13.6 23.2 38.5 14.0 3.4 2.6 18.9 24.8 34.2 17. Young Global Leaders will spend considerably more time online to network [%] ALL YGLs Today 2030 Today 2030 Today 2030 0 <5 28.4 38.3 29.0 30.4 3.5 11. Online social networking: In 2030.0 US YGLs Hours per week: Question: "How many hours per week do/will you spend on online social networking?" 165 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants BUSINESS YGLs 10.9 .6 51.1 18.5 20.0 17.3 54.2 4.10.2 5-10 10-15 50.
Weak signals 166 .C.
Selected examples: > China buying into Blackstone > Russia aligning with Iran > Rise of multinational corporation as a new nation state > London becoming an offshore location Increasing impact of technology on everyday life 26% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. Weak signals: Observations of Young Global Leaders that could be a first sign of future trends (1/3) Climate change & environmental issues 43% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. Selected examples: > Hip-hop music in China > European & Asian universities teaching all classes in English > Anti globalization movement Question: "What do you see as the three most important 'weak signals' for the future? (A weak signal is an (even small) observation. Selected examples: > Child buying car on ebay > More networking and nothing can be hidden > 24/7 personal profiling and tracking across all platforms Resource scarcity 23% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. Selected examples: > China turns into food importer > Cost of natural resources > Depleting marine resources Globalization and globalization effects 22% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. which – in your mind – is the first sign of a future trend.)" 167 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .1. Selected examples: > Birds tend not to fly to Africa anymore over winter > Extremely hot summer in Tokyo > Ice melting in Greenland > Stars driving ecological cars Radicalization and asymmetric warfare 40% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. Selected examples: > Number of children named Osama > Cyber terrorism > The increase of votes to extremist parties in Europe > A friend making surprisingly negative comments about other religions/societies Power shifts 31% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area.
Selected examples: > Number of people going into online second life type works > Decreasing importance and commitment to human rights . Selected examples: > Independent media in developing countries > Open source software. Selected examples: > Average Japanese farmer over 60 years old > Migrants arriving by thousands every day in Europe 9% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. which – in your mind – is the first sign of a future trend. therapies and spiritualism Question: "What do you see as the three most important 'weak signals' for the future? (A weak signal is an (even small) observation. Wikis – all about harnessing collective intelligence 12% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area.)" 168 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 16% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. Selected examples: > Rise of autism in US children – and we don't know the source > Increasing embracement of alternative medicine.Weak signals (2/3) Changing society patterns (22) Shifts in wealth distribution (20) 20% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. Selected examples: > Individual wealth concentration > Emerging middle class in India Individualism (16) 22% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area. Selected examples: > Less women wanting to work full time > Female diplomatic envoys/heads of state Spreading democracy (14) Demographic change and migration (12) Health (9) 14% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned weak signals in this area.
)" 169 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .Weak signals (3/3) Others Selected examples: > CEO's hold their position shorter times > Bubble in diverse equity markets > Eating habits move towards vegetarian > Going to moon and Mars > Google will run absolutely everything > 20-20 cricket > Whether New Orleans is rebuilt > Moore's Law (exponential growth in computing power) > Nanotech textiles > Number of things being monitored real time > Paul Allen is funding a radio telescope array – if we detect a weak signal from any other civilization. it will change the way humanity sees itself > Anti-religionism Question: "What do you see as the three most important 'weak signals' for the future? (A weak signal is an (even small) observation. which – in your mind – is the first sign of a future trend.
C. OPINIONS OF YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERs 1. Collective Opinion: Results of Young Global Leaders Survey 2. Individual Opinions: Young Global Leaders Opinion Editorials 170 .
Tony Group Chief Executive Officer. The Economist The Philanthropy Revolution Bremmer. India Are We Underestimating the Impact of Computer… Bishop. Malaysia Quo Vadis. Wall Street Journal Report. Air Asia. Shai Founder and CEO. USA Not as Flat as It May Seem Casey. Caroline Founding Chief Executive Officer. Eurasia Group Globalization and a World of Risk Cabrera. The Aisling Foundation. Ireland The Business Case for Homogeneity? Fernandez. Ian President. Thunderbird School of Global Management. Matthew New York Bureau Chief. Neal Chief Executive. Goode Holdings LLC. Maria Anchor.INDIVIDUAL OPINIONS: Young Global Leader Opinion editorials (1/3) YOUNG GLBOAL LEADER OPINION EDITORIALS Agassi. Apax Partners India Advisers Pvt Ltd. Committee for Democracy in Information Technology (CDI) The Possible World of Technology User For Good Bartiromo. Angel President. United Kingdom Visual Summary 171 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . CNBC's Closing Bell and Host and Managing Editor. ASEAN? Goldman. CNBC China And India: A Mixed Picture Bharadwai. Rodrigo Executive Director. Neerai Managing Director and Country Head. Project Better Place The Future of Transportation Baggio.
INDIVIDUAL OPINIONS: Young Global Leader Opinion editorials (2/3)
YOUNG GLBOAL LEADER OPINION EDITORIALS
H.R.H. Crown Prince Haakon of Norway Global Dignity Himanen, Pekka Philosopher, HIIT, Finland A New Oration on Dignity Idriss, Shamil Acting Director, UN Alliance of Civilizations, USA Whose Life in 2030? Kremer, Michael Gates Professor of Developing Societies, Harvard University Future Trends in Aid Krings, Frank Chief Operating Officer, Europe and Member of the Management Committee, Germany, Deutsche Bank AG Trend, Transition or Tremolo? Kuzamanovic, Maja President, FoAM, Belgium On Turbulence and Entanglement Meyer, Paul Co-Founder, Chairman and President, Voxiva, USA Only Five Computers Michel-Kerjan, Erwann Managing Director, Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes, The Wharton School The New Risk Architecture Mumenthaler, Christian Chief Risk Officer and Member of the Executive Board, Swiss Re, Switzerland Understanding Interconnections of Global Challenges Payet, Rolph Special Adviser to the President of Seychelles, Office of the President of Seychelles The Future of Water
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
INDIVIDUAL OPINIONS: Young Global Leader Opinion editorials (3/3)
YOUNG GLBOAL LEADER OPINION EDITORIALS
Penninger, Josef Scientific and Admin. Director, Institute of Molecular Biotechnology of the Academy of Sciences, Austria The Brave New World of Genetics and Biotechnology Salbi, Zainab Founder and CEO, Wonen for Women International Stronger Women, Stronger Nations Sorkin, Andrew Chief Reporter and Editor, Mergers and Acquisitions, The New York Times Mapping the Medium and the Message Stephens, Bret Columnist and Member of the Editorial Board, Dow Jones and Company Inc. Is Freedom Predictable? Tilman, Leo Senior Managing Director and Chief Institutional Strategist, The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. The Big Unknown Van Oranje, Mabel International Advocacy Director, Open Society Institute and CoChair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, UK Human rights in 2030 Wood, John Founder and CEO, Room to Read A Call to Action Zafar, Sobhan Assistant Editor, The Daily Star Starfish Nation Zarur Andrey General Partner, Kodiak Venture Partners and Senior Lecturer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Trends in Human Health Zittraun, Jonathan Professor, Internet Governance and Regulation, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Future Mapping Commentary
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
1. Life in 2030 2. Lessons from the past
APPENDIX 1. Lessons from the past 175 . Life in 2030 2.
while lifelong personalized learning packages keep you up to speed 4. while you plan your next suborbital space trip 6. able to sense your needs. Working in 2030: You conduct virtual meetings from home.OVERVIEW: Your life in 2030 1. or the feeling of being embraced by a hug T-shirt 176 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . but it makes you more concentrated and smarter 3. and the colleagues you lead have professions you didn't even know in 2007 5. Communicating in 2030: You smile when you think about the old 2007 Blackberries and start a discussion with real-time language translation 7. Eating & drinking in 2030: Food is not only convenient. Traveling in 2030: Your hydrogen car steers itself automatically on the highway. and carbon-neutral 2. Housing in 2030: Your high-tech house will be communicative. Relaxing in 2030: You enjoy virtual holidays together with your extended family. Learning in 2030: Global superstar teachers will teach your children. delicious and healthy.
e. a message will appear on the wallpaper while you are watching your favorite 3D movie to tell you that your meal is ready. recycling and solar power usage. Every room is linked to any monitored public space. your house will be carbon-neutral. Since you have installed the latest technology.1. discreet computerized agents sense your needs. and in all hotels you stay at. and carbon-neutral 1 THE COMMUNICATIVE HIGH-TECH HOME When entering your home in 2030.g. Housing is based on organic. 3 FLAT-PACKED. Overall. like in almost any larger city throughout the world. 177 . or you can also see any private spaces for which you have access rights. All electronic devices are connected. recyclable homes and sustainability compliance. more adaptable and affordable housing is mass-produced to enable 3+ generations to live under one roof. 'kit cities' have grown enormously over the past years.g. etc. and await your spoken instructions. e. climate-adapted architecture for low-emission. it is no problem for you to meet the targets set for water conservation. Accommodating the urban middle class. For working at home. are built in as standard features in your house. all necessary high-tech appliances for virtual video conferencing. meaning that it doesn't use greenhouse gasemitting fossil fuel energy to operate. ADAPTABLE 'KIT HOUSES' In your home town. monitor your environment. Housing in 2030: Your high-tech house will be communicative. pre-fabricated or flat-packed 'kit houses' or in the form of instant roof-top add-on units that maximize existing rooftop space in high-density areas. fast and modular housing is offered either through cheaper. able to sense your needs. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 CARBON-NEUTRAL LIVING Like all newer buildings. to facilitate eldercare.
organic. but it makes you more concentrated and smarter 1 MORE THAN NUTRITIOUS Food and drinks now come from 'pharming' – the convergence of the food and pharmaceutical industries. Drinks that make your synapses connect faster are still quite costly. 2 HEALTH-CONVENIENT MEALS If you're in a hurry. 178 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . and novel foods like artificial meat are catering to experimental 'foodies'. you don't need to reach for a burger. Online shopping will dominate all purchases with a multiple household delivery system via eco-friendly vehicles. fragmented consumer needs drive the industry. as have self-service checkouts. since it has all converged into one. However.2. Eating & drinking in 2030: Food is not only convenient. etc. delicious and healthy. rendering cashiers obsolete. Smart media has replaced paper money.g. 3 SMART PACKAGING The packaging of the food you buy not only includes smart RFID chips for a faster supply chain and automatic check-out.e. side effects when consumed with medicines. help in falling asleep.e. urban gardens with agricultural plots are very much on the rise for people seeking to reconnect to the traditional food chain. aiding digestion). as are products that stimulate specific parts of your brain. filling your stomach is but one of several objectives you have in mind when buying food. food miles (i. Consequently. carbon and water footprint indicator (i. ready-made and healthy meal is no longer a paradox. Having a fast. distance travelled. help you fall asleep. for example to heighten creativity or math skills. However. resources used for production of food item). or aid digestion. increased level of concentration. There are few products anymore that don't raise your level of concentration. local versus imported) and more health-related indicators such as time needed to digest. but it also displays all kinds of new information aside from traditional nutritional value and ingredients lists: extra functional values (e.
the agent will assemble educational offers into a formation of functions and roles. while lifelong personalized learning packages keep you up to speed 1 GLOBAL SUPERSTAR TEACHERS Virtual classes start at a different time every morning. using telepresence and 3D technologies. Learning in 2030: Global superstar teachers will teach your children. Classes are in all languages as a result of automatic real-time language translations. Global superstar teachers lecture to classes dispersed around the globe. your child negotiates reality games and real-life interactions equally well. 2 LAPTOPS. just as they were in 2007. You can of course adjust your personal learning plan at any time. Interactive media links diverse and dispersed groups of educators and students in ad hoc groups to establish new forms of collective assessments and qualifications. Younger members of society are mentors for older community members with regards to methods of urban and digital survival. computing and networking. Fully connected and equipped to live in a world which is simultaneously real and virtual. 179 3 1 CHILD. producing lifelong and needs-based learning plans tailor-made for you. Your children are much more technologically adept than you. A culture of layered realities has become common and is having a positive impact on learning: cooperative. critical-thinking and problem-solving practices as found in digital games today. depending on when your children are ready for school. 3 REALITIES . computer-bound and isolating e-learning. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 PERSONALIZED LIFELONG LEARNING PACKAGES Virtual learning agents guide you through the massive quantity and different forms of education on offer. and there will be automatic updates. To meet your personal needs.3. Learning experiences are immersing and mediated within a learning community as opposed to merely digital.
gene programmers. most participants are either at home or traveling. and so at meetings and conferences. data mining gurus. narrowcasters (personalized media providers). Women in particular pursue their economic interests for longer. Being on a plane is no longer an obstacle to work. virtual-reality actors interacting with you in pay-per-play cyberspace. Working in 2030: You conduct virtual meetings from home. internet attachés. 3 TISSUE ENGINEERS AND ECO-SCOUTS 180 . human simulators. Nevertheless. eco-scouts hunting down 'Trojan gene effects' in new foods released into the supply chain.e. and the colleagues you lead have professions you didn't even know in 2007 1 VIRTUAL-FLEXIBLE PROJECT WORK You usually don't spend more than 5 to 8 hours a week in the office. The most common picture shows workforce participation rates decreasing for older men and increasing for older women.4. etc. 'pharmers' producing foodstuffs with therapeutic proteins and intrafood vaccines. for example by way of cognitive enhancement. and knowledge engineers. are more capable and powerful than ever. even as widows. High on the list of today's most attractive professions are: tissue engineers working with man-made skin and cartilage. the perception of the older working woman is a positive one. time-efficient and therefore standard. to socialize and exchange gossip. bionics. and perceive them as a productive part of society. remote do-it-yourself handymen. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 SILVER GIRL POWER The 65 years+ cohort. to which you will belong in a couple of years. the ability of women to accumulate and control economic resources in older age and to be better off. as more children will get to know even their great-grandmothers. since you can securely access your office from any place on the planet. Also. even passionate teleworkers come to their paperless office at least once a week. physical augmentation. Project work in virtual teams is flexible. i.
you have to book a time slot or have VIP annual allowances. with four hours preparation. 181 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . flights can be found for as little as USD 3. You fly 100km above the surface of the earth and experience thirty minutes weightlessness during the three-hour flight. while you plan your next suborbital space trip 1 INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION If you want to go on busy motorways. Due to many low cost 'spacelines' which have entered the market over the past decade.5. China is still the number 1 tourist destination. While most cars still work at least partly with traditional fuels. which can be traded. your summer holidays sometimes lasted for weeks. a space trip has become the most popular Christmas present in 2030. some 20 years after its first commercial launch. determining insurance premiums and personal vehicle taxes. The leading hub is Dubai.500 (2007: USD 102. hydrogen and synthetic fuels account for an ever increasing share. Traveling in 2030: Your hydrogen car steers itself automatically on the highway. Because of supersonic and shapeshifting aircrafts. Cars are fully tracked via black boxes and GPS. but also inner-city congestion charging and toll roads are normal. Among higher-income families. Multiple international spaceports cater to this expanding market. 2 SHORT FAST TRIPS Back in 2007. holiday trips are much shorter and generally taken more frequently. 3 SUBORBITAL SPACE TRAVEL Suborbital space travel has become an affordable reality. for both the more affluent fast-flying holiday-seekers and the money-saving tourists prepared to fly one or two hours longer. you don't have to travel more than five hours to any major destination on earth if you are prepared to pay a premium. Car-sharing/-pooling. catering to the affluent Middle Eastern market. Today.000). at least 4-5 times a year. Nanotechnology that keeps all dirt away from your car has posed a serious threat to traditional carwashes.
DEVICES Different from the beginning of your career. invisible communication patterns emerge 'under the radar' of corporate decision makers and governments. While English is still the lingua franca. but for real-time control of all aspects of life. such communication networks can create statistically unpredictable shifts. 182 . there is a constant conversation with network services and devices today. In other words. since real-time language translation service can be accessed anywhere at low cost. multi-user online games and other computer-mediated communication tools. exchanging mails. This has allowed minority languages and dialects to flourish as more time is actually spent conversing in native tongues. based on shared interests or support groups. Using discussion boards. or participating in virtual conferences. allowing not only for speaking with others on the phone. 3 COMMUNICATION NETWORKS Hierarchy-free. Your communication devices can also arrange social appointments. supervise domestic appliance and home networks and add new knowledge files to personal interests and hobbies. As a further consequence.g. allow one-to-one interconnectedness of complex cultural and decision-making systems. you can conduct verbal communication via the semantic web with intelligent digital gurus that search and find the information you need. For example. Corporate-style 'dashboards' are now also in the personal domain. DEVICES. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 LANGUAGE ENGINEERING You don't need to know foreign languages anymore. R&D time and effort is now spent on the final linguistic frontier: human-animal conversation. language is no longer an obstacle to conversation. dispersed 'discourse communities'. chat rooms.6. Communicating in 2030: You smile when you think about the old 2007 Blackberries and start a discussion with real-time language translation 1 DEVICES. e.
All these are controlled and navigated through a mixture of conversation and visual indexing services. In addition. since functional nanomaterials are used on self-cleaning windows. you can access vast libraries of documents. A personal digital agent excels at routine lifestyle and social management – e. you care about your peripheral family (blended families and e-babies) plus your family of communities (e. computer software and other media. core family time is very limited. you spend entire weekends or longer in virtual realities. social and virtual networks. providing routine medical. you don't think only of your parents and your children. communities of practice. Simultaneous or interchangeable use of digital and real conversation and other media are part of the new user skill set. 183 . personal agents/digital gurus and edu-coaches. Relaxing in 2030: You enjoy virtual holidays together with your extended family. When there is absolutely nothing you want to do. you don't do anything. simulating the experience of being embraced by a loved one. If you can return home only virtually at night. As all members of a 'family' have the same set-up. in self-cleaning baths and other interior applications to kill germs. offering an enriched experience.g. core family. scheduling social appointments. films. and supervising domestic appliances and home networks. organizing travel. art. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2 VIRTUAL HOLIDAYS 3 JUST RELAX Knowing that digital world media is sometimes superior to reality. Besides this lean. financial or legal advice.7. recorded music. Domestic technology has freed you from housework. personal broadcasts.g. Computerized agents produce and understand speech well enough to conduct conversations with you. a high-tech garment T-shirt will ease your evening. discourse communities) and orbital social structures which include avatars. or the feeling of being embraced by a hug T-shirt 1 EXTENDED FAMILY When thinking about your family.
Life in 2030 2. Lessons from the past 184 .APPENDIX 1.
London would be buried six feet deep in horse dung! 185 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants In 1867. also many more horse carriages would be needed… . he argued. a British scientist predicted that London's population would grow very fast over the next 100 years… … because of the population growth. What happens when humans predict their future? London 1867 …and knowing about the horses' public bathroom habits.1. he concluded: By 1967.
" "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. it will be the role of women. 1967 186 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants "Everything that can be invented has been invented." . Berkeley. and guitar music is on the way out. on HIV. What certain "visionaries" have said about the future (1) CREATIVITY MUSIC TRANSPORT HEALTH EQUALITY Charles Duell. 1988 David Riesman. rejecting the Beatles.2. 1899 Decca Recording Co.C." "That virus is a pussycat. US patent office." "If anything remains more or less unchanged. President of the Royal Society." "We don't like their sound. molecular biology professor at U. conservative American social scientist. 1962 Lord Kelvin. 1895 Peter Duesberg.
1955 H. 1876 187 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants "Democracy will be dead by 1950. 1927 Chairman of IBM." "Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years.What certain "visionaries" have said about the future (2) POLITICS TECHNOLOGY MEDIA IT COMMUNICATION John Langdon-Davies.M. cofounder of Warner Brothers. 1943 Western Union internal memo. 1936 Alex Lewyt. Warner.. president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp." ." "The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. British author." "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
communicate. but you have to be aware of their existence > Technological inventions can change everything – The way we live.3. think… and the fate of London 188 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants . The world can develop in many different directions > Even the brightest minds can be completely wrong – Having a decade of experience in a field or being a Nobel prize laureate doesn't make your predictions right > Luck and unforeseeable events play an important role – And there is no way to calculate them. What can we learn from all this? > Predicting the future is difficult – The future is not a linear extrapolation of the past.
There are different ideas about the development of the world IN WAVES LINEAR CIRCULAR STIMULUS-DRIVEN CHAOTIC 189 © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants .4.
. bird flu. experience.g. or no structure that humans can identify 190 . synthesis) © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants IN WAVES LINEAR CIRCULAR STIMULUSDRIVEN CHAOTIC > Religious beliefs of reincarnation > The eradication of new epidemics and illnesses. etc. antithesis.Text behind animated chart > Kondratieff: Long waves (S-shaped. smallpox in the 16th century. focus on security after 9/11 > Creationism > Marxism > No existing structure. interest rates. hopefully in the near future > Shifts in direction after single events: environmental awareness after Chernobyl. cholera in 19th century and malaria. HIV. which are based on what previously existed and therefore steadily increase (e. etc. Hegel: thesis. labor markets. such as the plague in the 14th century. technology-driven cycles of modern capitalism that last decades) > Business cycles: Economic ups and downs. stock markets > Darwin: Survival of the fittest > Knowledge.
5. corporate planning departments. which are improbable events that would have a strong impact if they occurred (natural disasters. The most common are the extrapolation of current technological. and scenario building based on an examination of social systems and uncertainties > When thinking about the future. epidemics. the scope of a prediction or trend. and preferable futures plus wildcards. that make sound predictions. as is the probability of the predicted future. etc. and the links between different developments > Countless people spend their lives predicting the future. The future can be predicted professionally > Futurology is concerned with three Ps and a W: possible. the timeframe of the forecast. probable. There are hundreds of future research centers worldwide. political think tanks. considering the predictability of future events is key. Over 40 colleges and universities worldwide offer courses in future studies © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 191 . economic or social trends. terrorist attacks) > Futurists have different approaches to making predictions.
org with comments and feedback. © 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 192 .Please e-mail us at future@younggloballeaders.
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