Food Security and Present Threat Posed by Climate Change

Saadullah Ayaz IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Development Concerns of Pakistan
1. Nearly one-quarter of the population in Pakistan is classified as poor (World Resource Institute 2007) - Human Development Index is 0.539 - 74 percent population living under $2 a day - GDP~ 125th in World 2. Agriculture contributes to 24 percent of the GDP and employs 46% population~ dependent on water 3. Low forest cover (4.5%)~ deforestation= 0.2- 0.4 % per annum 4. Pakistan among the 17 countries facing water shortages and is among the 36 countries having serious threat of food crisis (WB 2009)

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Climate Change Impacts on Pakistan
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 12th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2007) Losing at least 5% of GDP each year (may be upto 20%) Emission share~ 0.43% of world’s total (135th ranking) Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0° (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007) C Decrease in precipitation=10 to 15% (last 40 years) (IPCC 2007) Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, in decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008)

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Food Security and Pakistan
1. Pakistan, ranked 11th on the index, is at “extreme risk” (Food Security Risk Index, UN 2009) 2. About one-third of the households in Pakistan are living below the ‘food poverty line’ (not meeting their nutritional requirements) (Mazhar Arif 2007) 3. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74 (62%) are food deficit in terms of net availability (SDPI 2003) 4. Droughts, floods, cyclones and pests (all related to CC) can quickly wipe out large quantities of food as it grows or is stored- further adding to food insecurity 5. Agriculture production in Pak rises by less than 1% annually (FAO 2006)

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Climate Change Impacts in relation to Agriculture and Food Security
1. Climate Change will increase variability in normal (GCISC 2008) monsoon patterns

2. More rapid recession of Himalayan- Karakoram Glaciers than predicated, threatening Indus River System Flows (GCISC 2008). 3. Likelihood of glaciers disappearing by the year 2035 is very high (international Commission of Snow and Water, 1999) 4. Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline (threats to irrigated agriculture) 5. Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions resulting in food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity (GCISC 2008) 6. Not much data/ research information available for Pakistan

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern Pakistan
Temperature (˚C increase over baseline) Baseline 1 2 3 4 5 Growing Season Length (Days) Northern Pakistan
Mountainous Region (Humid) Sub-Mountainous Region (Sub-humid)

Southern Pakistan
Plains (Semi-arid) Plains (Arid)

246 232 221 211 202 194

161 155 149 144 138 133

146 140 135 130 125 121

137 132 127 123 118 113

Finding: Decreasing Trend in number of days in Growing season (Source: GCISC)
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Change in Wheat Yield in Different Agro-climatic Zones of Pakistan with variation in Temperature
6500

Temperature Effect
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
5500 4500 3500 2500 1500
base 1 2 3
o

4

5

Temperature increase ( C)

Source: GCISC
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Effects Of Climate Events On Wheat Production In Rain-fed Areas of Pakistan
Cropping Year 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Yield (kg/ ha) 1319 534 717 1310 1321 1730 1354 1755 % change -25 -70 -59 -25 -25 -1 -23 = Terminal heat stress Bumper Year Climate Events Drought Year Drought + Terminal heat stress Drought + Terminal heat stress Drought Year Terminal heat stress Economic Cost (Rs. Mill) 2685.9 3026.1 3266.5 2281.1 2814.0 169.0 3320.0 0.0
Source: Aslam and Asim, 2008
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios
Region (Northern Mountainous) (Northern Submountainous) (Southern Semi arid Plain) (Southern Arid Plain) Total (Pakistan) % Share in National Production Baseline Yield (kg per ha) % Change in yield in 2080 Scenario A2 Scenario B2

2

2658

+50

+40

9

3933

-11

-11

42

4306

-8

-8

47 100

4490 4326

-5 -5.7

-6 -6.4
Source: GCISC 2008

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Expected Economic Losses in Wheat by 2080 due to CC and related factors
Regions Production distribution % share in national production Change in yield (%) Quantity Loss (000 t) Economic Loss (Rs. Mill.)

Northern Mountains Northern Submountainous Southern Semi Arid Plains Southern Arid Plains Total

465.9 2096.5

2 9

+4 -11

186.4 -230.6

4.43 -5.48

9783.8 10948.5 23294.7

42 47

-8 -6

-782.7 -656.9 -1483.9

-18.59 -15.60 -35.24

Source: NARC (2008)
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Salient findings
1. Expected temperature increase in Pakistan as whole higher than the expected global average increase. 2. Projected temperature increase in the north is somewhat higher than in the south Pakistan. 3. Projected temperature increase in winter is more than that in summer. 4. As yet it is not possible to get a clear picture for precipitation change, due to large model uncertainties. 5. The yields of both wheat and rice will decrease everywhere except in the Northern Mountainous areas where wheat yield will increase.

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Recommendations
1. Initiate adaptation measures/ access to international funds 2. Increase water use efficiency, enhance water reservoir capacity 3. Improved governance structure 4. Strengthening of Ministry of Environment, ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock 5. Strengthen research base and agricultural extension services 6. Invest in dry- land, arid agriculture 7. Control exponential population growth

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Recommendations (contd…)
8. 9. Comprehensive ‘Food Security Strategy’- Pro- Poor concerns integrated Improve access to food, through the development of social protection schemes such as minimum wage, unemployment benefits, “food-for-work” programmes, basic health care and agricultural insurance Investments in sustainable agriculture and small scale farmers will be extremely important, Drought resistant varieties, alternate farming practices, reduce cultivation of water intensive crops

10. 11.

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

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