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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 15TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM CST

UltraPoll - Manitoba
Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
15th November 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between November three levels of government, President and CEO
3rd to November 5th, 2018 among a sample Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
of 735 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Manitoba. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from random was the only polling firm to correctly predict
digit dialing. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
Research and was not sponsored by a third elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
party. special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Opinion Research and meets international and
3.61% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Canadian publication standards.

(full methodology appears at the end of this CONTACT INFORMATION
report) In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PALLISTER PCs MAINTAIN HEALTHY LEAD OVER THE NDP AS LIBERALS
GAIN FIVE

15 AUGUST 2018 (OTTAWA, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives led by Brian
Pallister have nearly a fourteen point lead over the opposition NDP.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a
conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 735 Manitobans
between November 3rd and November 5th. The poll has a margin of error of
+/- 3.61% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Pallister PCs hold a solid lead over the NDP despite losing two points since
we last polled in August,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research. “The big mover in our poll is Dougald Lamont and the Liberals as
they have climbed five points”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs have 42.3% (-2.6% from our previous
August release), while the NDP led by Wab Kinew come in with 28.7% support
(-0.5%). The Liberals with Lamont at the helm currently enjoy 18.1% (+4.5%),
and the Greens with James Bedomme as leader have 6% (-2.7%).

The poll also asked Manitobans about their impressions of the party leaders.
While every leader scored a net negative favourability rating, Wab Kinew had
the best score with -5.5%.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
oters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

17.9%

35.1%
1.5%
2.5%

5.1%
All Voters

14.3%

ded and Leaning Voters
23.6%
ll Voters
1.7%
3.2%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party Undecided
6%
17.9%

18.1%1.5% 35.1%
42.3%
2.5%

5.1% Decided and Leaning Voters
All Voters

14.3%

28.7% 23.6%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party Undecided
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
an Pallister Wab Kinew

21.6%
23.9%
26%
32%

6.4%
Brian Pallister Wab Kinew

14.7% 29.4%

Dougald Lamont 45.9%

Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
13.3%

40.9%
18.2%

Dougald Lamont

es Beddome Steven Fletcher 27.6%
Brian Pallister
6.6% 10.7%
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure

21.6% 12.9%
26%
33.3%

40.7%

James Beddome Steven Fletcher
6.4%
Brian Pallister 35.1%

39.8%
20.8%

45.9%

Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 35.1% 42.6% 27.8% 35.2% 34.4% 33.2% 38.4% 46.3% 28.3%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 23.6% 19.3% 27.9% 19.3% 25.5% 25.7% 25.1% 18.2% 26.9%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.5% 13.3% 14.9% 14.6% 9.9% 17%
Greens led by James Bedomme 5.1% 5% 5.2% 4.5% 6% 6.2% 3.5% 5.3% 5%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 3.7% 1.7% 2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.8%
Another Party 1.5% 2.6% 0.3% 2% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2%
Undecided 17.9% 13.4% 22.1% 20.9% 17.9% 17.1% 14.2% 17.6% 18%
Unweighted Frequency 735 414 321 178 194 211 152 320 415
Weighted Frequency 735 362 373 217 186 190 141 278 457

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 38.6% 45.1% 32.2% 39.9% 37% 35.9% 42.3% 49.9% 31.7%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 26% 20.6% 31.3% 20.9% 28.5% 28.6% 26.9% 21.5% 28.7%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 16.4% 16% 16.8% 16.8% 16.4% 15.3% 17.2% 11.2% 19.6%
Greens led by James Bedomme 5.4% 5% 5.9% 4.5% 6.6% 6.8% 3.5% 5.3% 5.5%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 2.9% 3.5% 2.4% 4.6% 1.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 3.2%
Another Party 1.6% 2.8% 0.3% 2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2%
Undecided 9.1% 7% 11.1% 11.2% 8.6% 9.6% 5.9% 8.8% 9.3%
Unweighted Frequency 735 414 321 178 194 211 152 320 415
Weighted Frequency 735 362 373 217 186 190 141 278 457

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 42.3% 48.5% 36.2% 44.7% 40.3% 39.5% 44.8% 54.8% 34.7%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 28.7% 22.2% 35.1% 23.6% 31.4% 31.9% 28.9% 23.7% 31.8%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 18.1% 17.1% 19% 19.1% 17.9% 17% 18.2% 12.2% 21.6%
Greens led by James Bedomme 6% 5.4% 6.6% 5% 7.2% 7.6% 3.7% 5.8% 6.2%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 3.2% 3.8% 2.7% 5.2% 1.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.6%
Another Party 1.7% 3% 0.4% 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 0.9% 2.2%
Unweighted Frequency 672 386 286 158 178 193 143 295 378
Weighted Frequency 672 331 341 199 170 174 129 254 418
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 26% 35.7% 16.6% 22.8% 24.4% 26.7% 32.2% 32.1% 22.3%
Unfavourable 45.9% 40.6% 51.1% 43.3% 42.8% 51.6% 46.4% 37.9% 50.8%
Not familiar with Brian Pallister 6.4% 5.4% 7.4% 7.4% 8.1% 4.9% 4.8% 5.7% 6.9%
Not sure 21.6% 18.3% 24.9% 26.6% 24.6% 16.7% 16.6% 24.3% 20%
Unweighted Frequency 735 414 321 178 194 211 152 320 415
Unweighted Frequency 735 362 373 217 186 190 141 278 457

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 23.9% 18.1% 29.5% 21.2% 21% 28.1% 26% 17.8% 27.6%
Unfavourable 29.4% 39.1% 20% 26.5% 31.6% 27.8% 33.2% 30.8% 28.6%
Not familiar with Wab Kinew 14.7% 13.2% 16.1% 14.8% 19.4% 12.5% 11.3% 18.1% 12.6%
Not sure 32% 29.6% 34.4% 37.5% 28% 31.6% 29.5% 33.3% 31.2%
Unweighted Frequency 735 414 321 178 194 211 152 320 415
Unweighted Frequency 735 362 373 217 186 190 141 278 457

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dougald Lamont?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 13.3% 12.2% 14.4% 15.7% 11.4% 12.4% 13.4% 10.1% 15.3%
Unfavourable 18.2% 22.7% 13.8% 17.8% 17.1% 20.5% 17.1% 22.3% 15.7%
Not familiar with Dougald Lamont 27.6% 26.8% 28.3% 27.3% 30.8% 25.2% 26.9% 29% 26.7%
Not sure 40.9% 38.2% 43.5% 39.2% 40.7% 41.9% 42.6% 38.6% 42.3%
Unweighted Frequency 735 414 321 178 194 211 152 320 415
Unweighted Frequency 735 362 373 217 186 190 141 278 457

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Bedommel?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 6.6% 7.6% 5.6% 8.6% 7.6% 5.8% 3.1% 4.7% 7.7%
Unfavourable 12.9% 15.7% 10.2% 13.4% 15% 13.3% 8.9% 17.8% 10%
Not familiar with James Beddome 39.8% 37.6% 41.9% 38.4% 39.2% 38.4% 44.7% 39.3% 40.1%
Not sure 40.7% 39% 42.3% 39.6% 38.2% 42.5% 43.3% 38.2% 42.2%
Unweighted Frequency 735 414 321 178 194 211 152 320 415
Unweighted Frequency 735 362 373 217 186 190 141 278 457

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Steven Fletcher?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 10.7% 12.9% 8.6% 7.1% 11.4% 15.1% 9.6% 9.9% 11.2%
Unfavourable 35.1% 39.1% 31.4% 32.8% 37.4% 30.3% 42.2% 32% 37.1%
Not familiar with Steven Fletcher 20.8% 19.2% 22.3% 24.9% 21.8% 18.2% 16.8% 26.4% 17.4%
Not sure 33.3% 28.9% 37.7% 35.3% 29.4% 36.5% 31.3% 31.7% 34.3%
Unweighted Frequency 735 414 321 178 194 211 152 320 415
Unweighted Frequency 735 362 373 217 186 190 141 278 457
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held Do you have a favourable or
today, which party would you vote unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew?
for? Favourable opinion
Progressive Conservative Party of Unfavourable opinion
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister Not sure
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led Not familiar with Wab Kinew
by Wab Kinew
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald Do you have a favourable or
Lamont unfavourable opinion of Dougald
Green Party of Manitoba led by James Lamont?
Bedomme Favourable opinion
Another Party Unfavourable opinion
Undecided Not sure
Not familiar with Dougald Lamont
And which party are you leaning
towards? (only asked of respondents Do you have a favourable or
who were undecided in previous unfavourable opinion of James
question) Bedommel?
Progressive Conservative Party of Favourable opinion
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister Unfavourable opinion
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led Not sure
by Wab Kinew Not familiar with James Bedomme
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald
Lamont Do you have a favourable or
Green Party of Manitoba led by James unfavourable opinion of Steven
Bedomme Fletcher?
Another Party Favourable opinion
Undecided Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
(the order of the following five Not familiar with Steven Fletcher
questions were randomized)
Do you have a favourable or What is your gender?
unfavourable opinion of Brian Male
Pallister? Female
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion What is your age group?
Not sure 18 to 34 years of age
Not familiar with Brian Pallister 35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between November
3rd to November 5th, 2018, among a sample of 735 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Manitoba. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Manitoba.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.61% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.82%, Females: +/-
5.47%, 18-34 age group: +/- 7.35%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.04%, 50-64 age group: +/-
6.75%, 65+ age group: +/- 7.95%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.81%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 5.48%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.