You are on page 1of 10

POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 15TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM CST

UltraPoll - Saskatchewan
Edition
Voter Intention Numbers and Leader
Favourability Ratings
15th November 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on the result Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
of a survey conducted between October 30th Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
and November 1st, 2018 among a sample of snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
779 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
Saskatchewan. The survey was conducted was the only polling firm to correctly predict
using automated telephone interviews (Smart a Liberal majority government in the 2015
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
landlines and cellular phones. predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
The sampling frame was derived from random special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
digit dialing. a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Canadian publication standards.
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party. CONTACT INFORMATION
In Toronto:
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.48% Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:
report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
SASK PARTY LEAD BY TWENTY-FIVE POINTS

15 NOVEMBER 2018 (OTTAWA, ON) – The governing Saskatchewan Party have
nearly a twenty-five point lead over the opposition NDP powered by overwhelming
support in rural Saskatchewan.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration
of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 779 Saskatchewan residents between
October 30th to November 1st. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.48% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Sask Party remains in a strong position”, said Joseph Angolano, Vice President
of Mainstreet Research. “For the first time this year, the Sask Party take a lead in all
regions in Saskatchewan.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Sask Party have 55.1% support, while the
NDP with Ryan Meili as leader have 30.3%. The Liberals with Naveed Anwar at the
helm have 6.8% while the Greens led by Shawn Setyo come in with 4.2%.

The survey also asked Saskatchewan residents if they had a favourable view of all
four party leaders.

“Premier Moe has a very strong net rating of +20.5%”, continued Angolano. “On
the other hand, Ryan Meili has a net favourability rating of -6.1%, which is a slight
improvement from the last time we polled Saskatchewan in August.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

15.5%

2.8%

3.8%

47.7%
5.3%
All Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters
All Voters
25%

3.5%
12.6%
4.2%
Saskatchewan Party
6.8% NDP Liberal Green Another Party
2.3%
3.3% Undecided

4.7%
45.2%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
55.1%
30.3%

31.9%

Saskatchewan Party NDP Liberal Green Another Party

Saskatchewan Party NDP Liberal
Undecided Green Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

55.1%
30.3%
6.8%
All

4.2%
3.5%

45.3%
41.4%
Saskatoon

7.6%
4.6%
1.0%

44.4%
38.5%
Regina

9.8%
5.1%
2.2%

65.0%
20.8%
Rest of SK

5.1%
3.7%
5.5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Saskatchewan Party NDP Liberal Green Another Party
Party Leader Favourability Ratings
Scott Moe Ryan Meili

9.3%
19.5% 19.5%

42%
27.2%

Scott Moe Ryan Meili

25.6%

35.3%

Naveed Anwar Shawn Setyo
Scott Moe
21.5%

5.7% 3.4%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
12.7%

23.8%
20.9%
36.5%

44.5%
42.5%

Naveed Anwar Shawn Setyo
Scott Moe

14.5%
39.4%

36.9%
19.2%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe 47.7% 54.5% 40.9% 42.7% 42.9% 54.8% 51.9% 37.1% 39.7% 58.5%
NDP led by Ryan Meili 25% 20.2% 29.7% 21.2% 32.6% 22.5% 24.8% 28.6% 36.5% 17.2%
Saskatchewan Liberals led by Naveed Anwar 5.3% 4.8% 5.7% 4.9% 5.2% 5.9% 5.2% 7.2% 6.9% 3.6%
Saskatchewan Greens led by Shawn Setyo 3.8% 3.3% 4.2% 5.8% 1.7% 3.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 3.2%
Another Party 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% 3% 4% 2.5% 1.4% 1.9% 1% 4.2%
Undecided 15.5% 14% 17% 22.4% 13.7% 11.2% 12.8% 20.8% 11.6% 15.3%
Unweighted Frequency 779 473 306 189 206 240 144 186 174 419
Weighted Frequency 779 388 391 238 189 207 146 170 212 397

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe 51.1% 58.5% 43.8% 47.1% 46% 58.7% 53.5% 40% 43.1% 60.1%
NDP led by Ryan Meili 28% 22.2% 33.8% 24.8% 36.4% 24.7% 27.3% 34.8% 39.2% 19.2%
Saskatchewan Liberals led by Naveed Anwar 6.3% 5.9% 6.7% 6% 5.9% 6.8% 6.6% 8.7% 7.3% 4.7%
Saskatchewan Greens led by Shawn Setyo 3.9% 3.5% 4.2% 5.8% 1.7% 3.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 3.4%
Another Party 3.3% 3.7% 2.8% 3% 5% 2.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1% 5.1%
Undecided 7.5% 6.2% 8.7% 13.4% 5% 3.5% 6.6% 10.3% 5% 7.6%
Unweighted Frequency 779 473 306 189 206 240 144 186 174 419
Weighted Frequency 779 388 391 238 189 207 146 170 212 397

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe 55.1% 62.5% 47.9% 54.3% 48.4% 60.6% 57.4% 44.4% 45.3% 65%
NDP led by Ryan Meili 30.3% 23.6% 36.9% 28.5% 38.4% 25.7% 29.3% 38.5% 41.4% 20.8%
Saskatchewan Liberals led by Naveed Anwar 6.8% 6.2% 7.4% 6.9% 6.1% 7.1% 7% 9.8% 7.6% 5.1%
Saskatchewan Greens led by Shawn Setyo 4.2% 3.7% 4.8% 6.7% 1.7% 3.6% 4.3% 5.1% 4.6% 3.7%
Another Party 3.5% 4% 3.1% 3.5% 5.3% 3% 2.1% 2.2% 1% 5.5%
Unweighted Frequency 726 445 281 164 196 231 135 169 167 390
Weighted Frequency 726 362 364 222 176 193 136 159 197 370
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Scott Moe?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Favourable 42% 48% 36% 33.3% 35.5% 51.9% 50.6% 30.6% 37.2% 49.5%
Unfavourable 21.5% 20.8% 22.2% 17% 29.1% 19% 22.4% 29.2% 28.6% 14.4%
Not Familiar with Scott Moe 9.3% 8.5% 10.1% 13.7% 7.8% 7.4% 7% 13.6% 8.9% 7.7%
Not sure 27.2% 22.6% 31.7% 36% 27.6% 21.7% 20% 26.6% 25.3% 28.5%
Unweighted Frequency 779 473 306 189 206 240 144 186 174 419
Weighted Frequency 779 388 391 238 189 207 146 170 212 397

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Ryan Meili?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Favourable 19.5% 17.1% 21.9% 17.6% 25.5% 16.8% 18.9% 27% 28.2% 11.7%
Unfavourable 25.6% 34.6% 16.8% 14.2% 25.5% 31.9% 35.5% 19.6% 20.1% 31.2%
Not Familiar with Ryan Meili 19.5% 18.5% 20.5% 26.4% 16.9% 19.2% 12.1% 19.9% 17.6% 20.4%
Not sure 35.3% 29.8% 40.8% 41.8% 32.1% 32.1% 33.5% 33.5% 34.1% 36.7%
Unweighted Frequency 779 473 306 189 206 240 186 186 174 419
Weighted Frequency 779 388 391 238 189 207 170 170 212 397

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Naveed Anwar?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Favourable 5.7% 6.2% 5.2% 8.3% 4.9% 5.1% 3.3% 11.9% 6.2% 2.8%
Unfavourable 20.9% 29.1% 12.7% 16.4% 24% 19.8% 25.7% 13% 18.4% 25.5%
Not Familiar with Naveed Anwar 36.5% 33.5% 39.5% 36.5% 33.3% 38.6% 37.7% 40.4% 34.9% 35.7%
Not sure 36.9% 31.3% 42.5% 38.8% 37.8% 36.5% 33.2% 34.8% 40.4% 36%
Unweighted Frequency 779 473 306 189 206 240 144 186 174 419
Weighted Frequency 779 388 391 238 189 207 146 170 212 397

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Shawn Setyo?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Favourable 3.4% 4.5% 2.2% 4.2% 4.8% 3.5% - 6.3% 6.1% 0.6%
Unfavourable 12.7% 18.1% 7.3% 12.6% 15.9% 12.8% 8.6% 5.5% 9.9% 17.3%
Not Familiar with Shawn Setyo 44.5% 41.8% 47.3% 40.7% 40.1% 47.2% 52.8% 48.4% 42.7% 43.9%
Not sure 39.4% 35.6% 43.2% 42.6% 39.1% 36.6% 38.6% 39.8% 41.3% 38.2%
Unweighted Frequency 779 473 306 189 206 240 144 186 174 419
Weighted Frequency 779 388 391 238 189 207 146 170 212 397
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held Do you have a favourable or
today, which party would you vote unfavourable opinion of Ryan Meili?
for? Favourable opinion
(first four responses randomized) Unfavourable opinion
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe Not sure
Saskatchewan New Democratic Party Not familiar with Ryan Meili
led by Ryan Meili
Saskatchewan Liberal Party led by Do you have a favourable or
Naveed Anwar unfavourable opinion of Naveed
Green Party of Saskatchewan led by Anwar?
Shawn Setyo Favourable opinion
Another Party Unfavourable opinion
Undecided Not sure
Not familiar with Naveed Anwar
And which party are you leaning
towards? (only asked of respondents Do you have a favourable or
who were undecided in previous unfavourable opinion of Shawn
question) Setyo?
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe Favourable opinion
Saskatchewan New Democratic Party Unfavourable opinion
led by Ryan Meili Not sure
Saskatchewan Liberal Party led by Not familiar with Shawn Setyo
Naveed Anwar
Green Party of Saskatchewan led by What is your gender?
Shawn Setyo Male
Another Party Female
Undecided
What is your age group?
(order of the following four 18 to 34 years of age
responses were randomized) 35 to 49 years of age
Do you have a favourable or 50 to 64 years of age
unfavourable opinion of Scott Moe? 65 years of age or older
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Scott Moe
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 30th,
2018 and November 1st, 2018, among a sample of 779 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
the province of Saskatchewan. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of Saskatchewan.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of Saskatoon, Regina, and the rest of
Saskatchewan. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional
question of what region of the country they resided in. In each case, respondents were
dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. In the case of the first survey, the calls were staggered over times of day and two
days to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. In the case
of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the
province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016
Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for
weighting are age, gender, and region.

The margin of error for the first poll is +/- 3.52% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error
are higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.4%, Females: +/- 4.53%,
18-34 age group: +/- 8.66%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.95%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.9%, 65+ age
group: +/- 4.85%, Saskatoon: +/- 5.99%, Regina: +/- 6.42%, Rest of Saskatchewan: +/- 4.55%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.