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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 19TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM EST

Three Electoral District
Polls
Beauce (federal)
Burnaby South (federal)
Nanaimo (provincial)
19th November 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all
three surveys conducted between November three levels of government, President and CEO
10th and 11th, 2018 living in the federal Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
electoral districts of Beauce and Burnaby international public affairs.
South and the provincial electoral district of
Nanaimo. The survey was conducted using Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
automated telephone interviews (Smart Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
landlines and cellular phones. a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
The sampling frame was derived from both a Liberal majority government in the 2015
a national telephone directory compiled federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
by Mainstreet Research from various predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
commerically available sources. elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet a member of the World Association for Public
Research and was not sponsored by a third Opinion Research and meets international and
party. Canadian publication standards.

The sample sizes and margins of error, in all CONTACT INFORMATION
cases, accurate 19 times out of 20, for each In Ottawa:
survey are as follows: Quito Maggi, President
Beauce: n=616, +/- 3.95% quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
Burnaby South: n=366, +/- 5.12%
Nanaimo: n=594, +/- 4.02% In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
(full methodology appears at the end of this joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
report)
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NANAIMO BY-ELECTION A DEAD HEAT; SINGH AND BERNIER IN TROUBLE IN THEIR
RIDINGS

19 November 2018 (Ottawa ON) – The BC NDP and the BC Liberals find themselves in a statistical
tie in the upcoming provincial by-election in Nanaimo.

Also, Jagmeet Singh and Maxime Bernier would lose in their respective ridings if an election were
held today.

Those are the findings from three polls in the federal ridings of Beauce and Burnaby South and the
provincial riding of Nanaimo.

“The upcoming by-election in Nanaimo is important for both parties as it could let the Liberals take
the lead in the seat count in the BC legislature,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research. “When asking Nanaimo residents what party they would vote for, the NDP lead by eight,
but they are virtually tied when Nanaimo residents were asked about what candidate they would
vote for.”

Among decided and leaning voters, Sheila Malcolmson of the NDP has 39.8%, while Tony Harris of
the BC Liberals has 38.2%.

In Beauce, recently nominated candidate Richard Lehoux of the Conservatives has 37.9% support,
while Bernier has 34.7% support among decided and leaning voters.

“Bernier narrows the gap when we ask Beauce residents which candidates they would vote for,”
continued Maggi. “But there is no mistake that Bernier would be in trouble if the election were held
today.

Finally, 35.9% of decided and leaning voters in Burnaby South said that they would vote Liberal in
the upcoming by-election, while 29.3% said that they would vote Conservative. 27.2% said that they
would vote NDP.

“Given these numbers, it is suprising to see the NDP clamour for a by-election”, concluded Maggi.

In ridings were parties have not nominated candidates for the next election, respondents were
asked about the candidates that were fielded in the previous election. In the case of Burnaby South,
no question about local candidates was asked as Singh is so far the only nominated candidate in the
upcoming by-election.

The sample sizes and margins of error, in all cases, accurate 19 times out of 20, for each survey are
as follows: Beauce: n=616, +/- 3.95%, Burnaby South: n=366, +/- 5.12%, Nanaimo: n=594, +/- 4.02%

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial by-election were held today, which party would
All Voters you vote for?
All Voters Decided and Leaning Voters
Nanaimo - Party Leaders 13.4%
2.5%
13.4% 10.4%
2.4%

2.4%
5%
7.7%
41.4%
7.7%
41.4%
44.7%
3.7% All Voters
3.7% All Voters Decided and Leaning Voters

37.5%
31.4%
31.4%

All Voters
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
Another Party Undecided

All Voters Another Party Undecided Decided and Leaning
AnotherVoters
Party

Nanaimo - Local Candidates 10.7%

10.7% 4.1% 5.8%

9.3%
4.1% 37%
8.4%

8.4% 37% 6.8%
39.8%
4.4% All Voters
4.4% All Voters Decided and Leaning Voters

35.4%
38.2%
35.4%

Sheila Malcolmson, BC NDP Tony Harris, BC Liberals
Sheila Malcolmson, BC NDP Tony Harris, BC Liberals Sheila Malcolmson, BC NDP Tony Harris, BC Liberals
Kathleen Harris, BC Greens Bryce Nelson Crigger, BC Conservatives
Kathleen Harris, BC Greens Bryce Nelson Crigger, BC Conservatives Kathleen Harris, BC Greens Bryce Nelson Crigger, BC Conservatives
Another candidate Undecided
Another candidate Undecided Another candidate
If a federal election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
All Voters
Voters Decided and Leaning Voters
Beauce - Party Leaders
12% 1.8%
12% 15.8%
15.8%
19.1%
1.6%
1.6%

27.8%

24.8% All Voters
24.8% All Voters Decided and Leaning Voters

32.9%
32.9% 4.9%

4.5%
36.8%
4.1%
4.1%
4% 5.2%
4% 4.8%
4.8%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party
iberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois Greens Liberals
People's Party
Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Par
Another Party Undecided
Another Party Undecided Another Party

All Voters
Voters Decided and Leaning Voters
Beauce - Local Candidates
10.4% 11.9% 1.8%
10.4% 11.9% 13.8%
1.4%
1.4%

34.7%

All Voters
All Voters Decided and Leaning Voters
31.5%
31.5% 34.2%
34.2%

37.9%

2%

1.6% 4.4%
1.6% 4% 5%
5.5%
4% 5%

Adam Veilleux, Liberals Richard Lehoux, Conservatives Daniel Royer, NDP
Adam Veilleux, Liberals Richard Lehoux, Conservatives Daniel Royer, NDP Adam Veilleux, Liberals Richard Lehoux, Conservatives Daniel Royer, NDP
Stephane Trudel, Bloc Quebecois Celine Brown MacDonald, Green Maxime Bernier, People's Party
Stephane Trudel, Bloc Quebecois Celine Brown MacDonald, Green Maxime Bernier,Stephane
People's Party
Trudel, Bloc Quebecois Celine Brown MacDonald, Green Maxime Bernier, People's Party
Another Candidate Undecided
Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate
If a federal by-election were held today, which party would
you vote for?
All Voters
Burnaby South - Party Leaders
20.8%

28.4%

0.4%
0.9%

4.7%
All Voters

21.3%
23.5%

Decided and Leaning Voters

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic
0.5%Party Greens People's Party Another Party
All Voters 1%
6.1% Undecided

20.8%
35.9%
28.4%

27.2%

0.4%
0.9%
Decided and Leaning Voters
4.7%
All Voters

21.3%
23.5%

29.3%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Greens People's Party Another Party

Undecided
Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Greens People's Party Another Party
Breakout Tables
Beauce
If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 15.8% 14.8% 16.8% 18.7% 9.4% 14.5% 21.3%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 32.9% 33.6% 32.3% 28.8% 38.9% 33.3% 30.2%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 4.8% 6% 3.6% 5.1% 1.5% 6.3% 5.8%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 4% 3.6% 4.4% 3.4% 1.5% 5.2% 5.8%
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 4.1% 3.2% 4.9% 11.9% 1.5% 1.7% 2.3%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 24.8% 28.4% 21.4% 18.6% 35.4% 25.5% 18.7%
Another Party 1.6% 0.9% 2.3% - 1.5% 1.2% 3.9%
Undecided 12% 9.5% 14.3% 13.5% 10.2% 12.3% 12%
Unweighted Frequency 616 233 383 24 114 219 259
Weighted Frequency 616 298 318 138 149 183 145

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 17.6% 15.1% 19.9% 22.1% 11.7% 15.5% 22%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 34.3% 34.7% 33.8% 28.8% 40.7% 35.4% 31.3%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 4.8% 6% 3.6% 5.1% 1.5% 6.3% 5.8%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 4.1% 3.6% 4.6% 3.4% 1.5% 5.2% 6.1%
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 4.4% 3.2% 5.6% 11.9% 3% 1.7% 2.3%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 26% 29.7% 22.6% 18.6% 37% 27.6% 19.9%
Another Party 1.6% 0.9% 2.3% - 1.5% 1.2% 3.9%
Undecided 7.2% 6.7% 7.6% 10.1% 3% 7.1% 8.7%
Unweighted Frequency 616 233 383 24 114 219 259
Weighted Frequency 616 298 318 138 149 183 145

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 19.1% 16.2% 21.8% 24.7% 12% 16.7% 24.1%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 36.8% 37.1% 36.5% 32.1% 42% 38.2% 34.3%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 5.2% 6.5% 3.9% 5.6% 1.6% 6.8% 6.3%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 4.5% 3.9% 5% 3.8% 1.6% 5.6% 6.7%
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 4.9% 3.5% 6.2% 13.2% 3.1% 1.9% 2.5%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 27.8% 31.7% 24.2% 20.6% 38.1% 29.7% 21.8%
Another Party 1.8% 1% 2.4% - 1.6% 1.3% 4.2%
Unweighted Frequency 568 224 344 22 110 202 234
Weighted Frequency 568 275 293 127 138 169 134
Beauce
If a federal election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Adam Veilleux, Liberals 11.9% 9.5% 14.2% 18.7% 5.3% 8.6% 16.3%
Richard Lehoux, Conservatives 34.2% 35.5% 33% 28.8% 37.3% 39.1% 29.9%
Daniel Royer, NDP 5% 5.5% 4.6% 8.5% 1.5% 4% 6.6%
Stephane Trudel, Bloc Quebecois 4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.4% 1.1% 6.1% 4.8%
Celine Brown MacDonald, Green 1.6% 0.2% 2.9% 3.4% 2.3% 0.4% 0.8%
Maxime Bernier, People's Party 31.5% 35.7% 27.5% 27.1% 40.7% 31.4% 26.3%
Another Candidate 1.4% 0.9% 1.9% - 1.5% 0.8% 3.6%
Undecided 10.4% 8.5% 12% 10% 10.2% 9.6% 11.7%
Unweighted Frequency 616 233 383 24 114 219 259
Weighted Frequency 616 298 318 138 149 183 145

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Adam Veilleux, Liberals 12.6% 10% 15% 18.7% 7.9% 8.6% 16.6%
Richard Lehoux, Conservatives 35% 36% 34% 28.8% 38.1% 40.8% 30.4%
Daniel Royer, NDP 5% 5.5% 4.6% 8.5% 1.5% 4% 6.6%
Stephane Trudel, Bloc Quebecois 4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.4% 1.1% 6.1% 4.8%
Celine Brown MacDonald, Green 1.8% 0.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3% 0.4% 0.8%
Maxime Bernier, People's Party 32.2% 36% 28.7% 27.1% 42.2% 31.4% 27.8%
Another Candidate 1.6% 1.2% 2% - 1.5% 0.8% 4.4%
Undecided 7.7% 6.9% 8.5% 10.1% 4.5% 7.9% 8.6%
Unweighted Frequency 616 233 383 24 114 219 259
Weighted Frequency 616 298 318 138 149 183 145

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Adam Veilleux, Liberals 13.8% 10.8% 16.6% 20.9% 8.3% 9.4% 18.2%
Richard Lehoux, Conservatives 37.9% 38.7% 37.1% 32.1% 39.9% 44.3% 33.2%
Daniel Royer, NDP 5.5% 6% 5% 9.4% 1.6% 4.4% 7.2%
Stephane Trudel, Bloc Quebecois 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 3.8% 1.2% 6.6% 5.3%
Celine Brown MacDonald, Green 2% 0.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.2% 0.4% 0.9%
Maxime Bernier, People's Party 34.7% 38.6% 31.2% 30% 44.2% 34.1% 30.4%
Another Candidate 1.8% 1.3% 2.2% - 1.6% 0.8% 4.8%
Unweighted Frequency 565 223 342 22 108 200 235
Weighted Frequency 565 273 292 137 137 168 133
Nanaimo
If a provincial by-election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
BC NDP led by John Horgan 41.4% 45.8% 37.1% 44.9% 41% 41.2% 38.5%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 31.4% 29.7% 33.1% 26.8% 31% 33.3% 32.1%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 3.7% 2.6% 4.8% - - 8.2% 5.5%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 7.7% 5.5% 9.7% 18.4% - 3.8% 10.5%
Another Party 2.4% 2% 2.7% - 7% 1.9% 0.6%
Undecided 13.4% 14.3% 12.5% 8.2% 21% 11.6% 12.8%
Unweighted Frequency 594 242 352 28 60 186 320
Weighted Frequency 594 287 307 133 144 177 140

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
BC NDP led by John Horgan 43% 47% 39.3% 44.9% 44% 42.5% 40.9%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 36.1% 36.4% 35.8% 28.6% 46% 34.3% 35.2%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 4.6% 3.4% 5.8% - - 10.4% 6.6%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 10.1% 9.3% 10.8% 26.5% - 4.7% 11.6%
Another Party 2.4% 2% 2.7% - 7% 1.9% 0.6%
Undecided 3.8% 1.9% 5.6% - 3% 6.3% 5.1%
Unweighted Frequency 594 242 352 28 60 186 320
Weighted Frequency 594 287 307 133 144 177 140

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
BC NDP led by John Horgan 44.7% 47.8% 41.8% 44.6% 45.3% 45.2% 43.3%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 37.5% 37.2% 37.9% 28.6% 47.5% 36.6% 37%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 5% 3.5% 6.3% - - 11.1% 7%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 10.4% 9.5% 11.2% 26.8% - 5% 12.2%
Another Party 2.5% 2% 2.9% - 7.2% 2.1% 0.6%
Unweighted Frequency 562 236 326 28 58 174 302
Weighted Frequency 562 272 290 126 136 167 132
Nanaimo
If a provincial by-election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Sheila Malcolmson, BC NDP 37% 38.9% 35.2% 30.6% 37% 39% 40.6%
Tony Harris, BC Liberals 35.4% 39.8% 31.2% 30.6% 39% 39.3% 31.2%
Kathleen Harris, BC Greens 4.4% 3.4% 5.3% - 3% 7.5% 6.1%
Bryce Nelson Crigger, BC Conservatives 8.4% 3.3% 13.2% 24.5% - 2.2% 9.5%
Another candidate 4.1% 5.8% 2.5% 8.2% 7% 1.9% -
Undecided 10.7% 8.8% 12.6% 6.1% 14% 10.1% 12.7%
Unweighted Frequency 594 242 352 28 60 186 320
Weighted Frequency 594 257 307 133 144 177 140

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Sheila Malcolmson, BC NDP 38.4% 40.1% 36.9% 30.6% 40% 40.3% 41.8%
Tony Harris, BC Liberals 37% 42.9% 31.4% 30.6% 43% 39.3% 33.9%
Kathleen Harris, BC Greens 6.6% 5.8% 7.3% - 10% 8.5% 6.8%
Bryce Nelson Crigger, BC Conservatives 9% 3.3% 14.3% 24.5% - 4.1% 9.5%
Another candidate 5.8% 6.1% 5.4% 14.3% 7% 1.9% 1.3%
Undecided 3.3% 1.8% 4.7% - - 6% 6.6%
Unweighted Frequency 594 242 352 28 60 186 320
Weighted Frequency 594 287 307 133 144 177 140

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Sheila Malcolmson, BC NDP 39.8% 40.8% 39% 30.4% 40% 42.8% 45%
Tony Harris, BC Liberals 38.2% 43.8% 33% 30.4% 43% 41.8% 36.2%
Kathleen Harris, BC Greens 6.8% 5.9% 7.7% - 10% 9% 7.3%
Bryce Nelson Crigger, BC Conservatives 9.3% 3.4% 14.8% 24.9% - 4.4% 10.2%
Another candidate 5.8% 6.1% 5.6% 14.3% 7% 2% 1.4%
Unweighted Frequency 560 234 326 28 60 174 298
Weighted Frequency 560 271 289 126 136 167 132
Burnaby South
If a federal by-election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 28.4% 32.4% 24.6% 42.4% 30.9% 21.2% 21.8%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 23.5% 29.3% 18% 23.9% 18.6% 26.1% 24.7%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 21.3% 13.7% 28.5% 22.8% 13.8% 22.8% 25.8%
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 4.7% 5.3% 4.1% - 6.3% 9.1% 1.8%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% - 1.9% 1.6% -
Another Party 0.4% - 0.8% - - - 1.8%
Undecided 20.8% 18.3% 23.1% 10.9% 28.6% 19.2% 24%
Unweighted Frequency 366 162 204 34 98 134 100
Weighted Frequency 366 177 189 82 89 109 86

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 32.9% 34.7% 31.2% 47.8% 39% 23.9% 23.6%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 26.6% 31.3% 22.2% 23.9% 20.4% 30.8% 30.3%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 24.9% 16.9% 32.4% 28.3% 18.2% 27.2% 25.8%
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 5.6% 6.3% 4.9% - 6.3% 12.1% 1.8%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 0.9% 1% 0.9% - 1.9% 1.6% -
Another Party 0.4% - 0.8% - - - 1.8%
Undecided 8.6% 9.8% 7.6% - 14.1% 4.4% 16.6%
Unweighted Frequency 366 162 204 34 98 134 100
Weighted Frequency 366 177 189 82 89 109 86

(decided and leaning voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 35.9% 38.1% 33.8% 47.9% 45.5% 25% 28.3%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 29.3% 34.7% 24.3% 24% 23.8% 32.3% 36.3%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 27.2% 19.2% 34.7% 28.1% 21.2% 28.3% 31%
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.1% 6.9% 5.3% - 7.4% 12.7% 2.2%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 1% 1.1% 1% - 2.1% 1.7% -
Another Party 0.5% - 1% - - - 2.2%
Unweighted Frequency 330 144 186 34 84 128 84
Weighted Frequency 330 160 170 74 80 98 78
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between November 10th
to November 11th, 2018 living in the federal electoral districts of Beauce and Burnaby South
and the provincial electoral district of Nanaimo. The survey was conducted using Interactive
Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The
survey is intended to represent the voting population of these three ridings.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercial available sources. Respondents were dialed
at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The sample sizes and margins of error, in all cases, accurate 19 times out of 20, for each
survey are as follows: Beauce: n=616, +/- 3.95%, Burnaby South: n=366, +/- 5.12%, Nanaimo:
n=594, +/- 4.02%. Margins of error are higher in each subsamples.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.