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# SecuoS

## Availability and Reliability

Abu Dhabi, 2-3 November 2014

## web site: www.securityofsupply.com

email: hans@secuos.com
telephone: +971 1890 651

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Agenda

• Basic concepts
- Reliability
- Availability
• Exercises

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Reliability

working.

## Say that the reliability of a pump is 90%.

If I walk in on it every morning, then I expect it to be
working 9 out of 10 times.

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MTTF and MTTR estimation

## N MTTF = Mean Time To Failure

Xi
MTTF= ∑ MTTR = Mean Time To Repair
1 N
N MTBF = Mean Time Between Failures
Yi
MTTR= ∑
1 N
MTBF = MTTF + MTTR

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Exercise 1

## The log for pump P2501A shows that

- in one year 10 unplanned repairs were done,
- taking 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 12, 16, 24, 24 and 72 hours.

## Compute its MTTF and MTTR.

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Exercise 1 - Solution

## The log for pump P2501A shows that in one year 10

unplanned repairs were needed, taking 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 12,
16, 24, 24 and 72 hours.

## In that year the average repair time of pump P2501A was:

MTTR = (1+2+ …. + 72) /10 = 17 hours.
Its average run time was:
MTTF = (8766 – 170) / 10 = 860 hours.

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Items in series - Example
Consider three items with reliability 92%, 99% and 90%,
in series:

## Key: it is assumed that failures are mutually independent.

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Serial systems

...

## The reliability of the series is:

R = R1 * R2 * ... * Rn

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Parallel systems - Example

## Consider two pumps arranged in

parallel, each with 100% capacity.
Assume that the reliability of one pump
is 90%.

## What is the reliability of the parallel

system?

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Parallel systems - in detail

## pump1 pump2 probability

up up 0.90 * 0.90 = 0.81
up down 0.90 * 0.10 = 0.09
down up 0.10 * 0.90 = 0.09
down down 0.10 * 0.10 = 0.01

## If pump1 or pump2 works, the system works. Hence,

the reliability of the system
R = 1 – 0.01 = 0.99.

## Adding redundant capacity increases reliability!

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Parallel systems
Consider n parallel units, each with the same capacity:

## The reliability of the system is given by:

R = 1 - [(1-R1) x (1-R2) x ... x (1-Rn)]

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Complex systems

## One piece of equipment has only 2 states: it works or it

doesn’t. But a plant may operate at many intermediate
capacity levels.

So how do we
handle the
reliability and of
a complex
system?

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Exercise 2, Available Capacity
Compressor K1101 is known to have on average
12 failures per year, repair takes 81 hours.
Compare three 33.3 % compressors that are
installed in parallel, with one single compressor of
100 % capacity.
MANUAL METHODOLOGY
1 - calculate the unit reliability
2 - draw the diagram
3 - tabulate possible states

QUESTIONS
a. What is the Available Capacity?
b. What time fraction at full capacity?
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Exercise 2, Available Capacity

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Exercise 2, Available Capacity

Comparison
In both cases, the Effective Capacity = 90%, but the
Available Capacity is very different. With 3 x 33%:

the time at zero capacity is reduced substantially
from 10% to 0.1% and

the time at full capacity is reduced from 90% to
72.9%, that is from 329 to 266 days/year.

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Effective Capacity

## The Effective Capacity (EC) is the expected available

capacity. That is, the average capacity that is available
over time.

## It's a summary number and equates 1 day @ 50%

capacity to 0.5 day @ 100% capacity.

## EC = Σi (capacity level)i * (fraction of time @ level)i

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Exercise 3, Effective Capacity

## The Contracts Manager wishes to know if a Sales Agreement

can be negotiated based on an Effective Capacity of 98%
•Is the proposed 3 x 33.3% system acceptable?
•If not what else can you recommend?

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Exercise 3, Example

100 % 0.81 81.0%
60 % 0.18 10.8%
0 % 0.01 0.0%

## Effective Capacity = 100 * 0.81 + 60 * 0.18 = 91.8%

= Sum i:: capacity.i * fraction.i.
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Exercise 3, Effective Capacity

## The Contracts Manager wishes to know if a Sales

Agreement can be negotiated based on an Effective
Capacity (EC) of 98%.

## Is the proposed 3 x 33.3% system acceptable?

Effective Capacity = 90%, hence not.

## What else can you recommend? Increase redundancy:

2 x 100%,

3 x 50%,

4 x 33.3%

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Exercise 3, Effective Capacity

## Option 1: 2 x 100% compressors

EC = 1 – (1 - 0.90) * (1 - 0.90) = 99%

## Option 2: 3 x 50% compressors

EC = 0.729 + 3 * 0.081 + 3 * 0.009 * 0.5 = 98.6%

## Option 3: 4 x 33.3% compressors

EC = 98.1%

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Exercise 3, Effective Capacity

The Effective Capacity of alternatives 1x100%, 2x50%,
3x33%, 4x25% is the same.

However:
• Restart times may differ for different levels of reduced
production (compare restart time from 75% production to
restart from 0%).
• Your contract may put a higher penalty on a drop to 0%,
than on a drop to 50%.

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Availability

## Availability takes into account all Reliability factors

and in addition it includes the planned downtime. All
planned downtime has a fixed calendar basis but the
downtime duration might have uncertainty.

## Outside periods of planned maintenance, Availability

and Reliability are the same thing.

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Availability - Definition (ISO 14224)

## “Ability of an item to perform a required function

under given conditions over a given time interval,
assuming that the required external resources are
provided.”

## This needs to consider system configuration,

capacity and planned and unplanned down time.

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Availability – Definition details
TOTAL TIME

## OPERATING NOT OPERATING

[OP]
OPERABLE NOT OPERABLE

[S/B]
AVAILABLE UNAVAILABLE

BREAKDOWN MAINT.

[B/D]
PREVENTIVE MAINT.

## S/B is Hot Standby [PM]

OP + S/B
Availability =
OP + S/B + PM + B/D

## Reliability = MTTF Reliability = OP + S/B

MTTF + MTTR OP + S/B + B/D
OP
Utilisation =
Total Time
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Exercise 4
New pump started at 00.00 hrs. on 1st November

runs for 72 hrs, then breaks down

re-instatement takes 36 hrs

pump restarted and runs satisfactorily

## a. What is the availability of the pump?

b. What is its availability in November?

## Same pump, except:

Pump shut down for 72 hrs commencing 20 November
for operational reasons (tanks full).

## c. What is the availability of the pump in November?

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Exercise 4

## a.) Insufficient information, the Availability must

relate to a known period.
b) Availability = (30 – 1.5) / 30 = 0.95.
c) It is 0.95, standby time is included in availability.

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Reliability, Availability & Utilisation

## Utilisation: depends on supply, demand and storage

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Availability and Reliability
Availability and Reliability are fractions of capacities, they
are not linear with time
– do Not take time-weighted averages when the
maximum capacities change