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com

www.elsevier.com/locate/asoc

I. Burhan Türkşen a,b,*

a

Head Department of Industrial Engineering, TOBB-Economy and Technology University, Sögütözü Cad. No. 43,

Sögütözü 06560, Ankara, Turkey

b

Director-Knowledge/Intelligence Systems Laboratory, Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering,

University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G8, Canada

Received 21 February 2007; accepted 23 February 2007

Available online 23 December 2007

Abstract

‘‘Fuzzy Functions’’ are proposed to be determined by the least squares estimation (LSE) technique for the development of fuzzy system models.

These functions, ‘‘Fuzzy Functions with LSE’’ are proposed as alternate representation and reasoning schemas to the fuzzy rule base approaches.

These ‘‘Fuzzy Functions’’ can be more easily obtained and implemented by those who are not familiar with an in-depth knowledge of fuzzy theory.

Working knowledge of a fuzzy clustering algorithm such as FCM or its variations would be sufficient to obtain membership values of input vectors.

The membership values together with scalar input variables are then used by the LSE technique to determine ‘‘Fuzzy Functions’’ for each cluster

identified by FCM. These functions are different from ‘‘Fuzzy Rule Base’’ approaches as well as ‘‘Fuzzy Regression’’ approaches. Various

transformations of the membership values are included as new variables in addition to original selected scalar input variables; and at times, a

logistic transformation of non-scalar original selected input variables may also be included as a new variable. A comparison of ‘‘Fuzzy Functions-

LSE’’ with Ordinary Least Squares Estimation (OLSE)’’ approach show that ‘‘Fuzzy Function-LSE’’ provide better results in the order of 10% or

better with respect to RMSE measure for both training and test cases of data sets.

# 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Fuzzy functions; Rule bases; Membership values; Transformations; Input–output variables; Scalar and non-scalar; Reasoning; Least squares; Logistic

with a selected set of original scalar input variables plus

Fuzzy Functions, for short, FF, are proposed for the structure logistic transformations of non-scalar input variables as well as

identification of system models and reasoning with them. These suitable transformations of membership values of a given input

fuzzy functions can be determined by any function identifica- vector’s belonging to a fuzzy cluster. The membership values

tion method such as least squares’ estimates, LSE, maximum are determined by a fuzzy clustering algorithm with the

likelihood estimates, MLE, support vector machine estimates, analysis of training vectors. The models are validated by test

SVM, etc. Here we discuss only the Fuzzy Functions with Least vectors.

Squares’ Estimates (FF-LSE). In a future work, we plan to Next we briefly explain how the proposed structure

discuss Fuzzy Functions with Support Vector Machines (FF- identification of system models with FF-LSE is unique and

SVM). Furthermore, we discuss only the Type 1 Fuzzy structurally different and distinct from the well-known structure

Functions. Our work on Type 2 Fuzzy Functions is planned to identification approaches which are

follow in the future.

(i) Most commonly applied methods of developing fuzzy rule

bases which are determined either by experts or fuzzy

* Correspondence address: Head Department of Industrial Engineering, clustering methods, such as FCM [1] in order to obtain the

TOBB-Economy and Technology University, Sögütözü Cad. No. 43, Sögütözü membership descriptions of the input fuzzy sets that form

06560, Ankara, Turkey. Tel.: +90 312 292 4068/+1 416 978 1278; the left hand sides and the output fuzzy sets that form the

fax: +90 312 292 4092.

E-mail addresses: bturksen@etu.edu.tr, turksen@mie.utoronto.ca.

right-hand sides of a fuzzy rule base. This approach was

URL: http://www.mie.utoronto.ca/staff/profiles/turksen.html, initially proposed by Zadeh [2,3] and originally applied by

http://www.etu.edu.tr Mamdani and Assilian [4]. There are two basic variations of

1568-4946/$ – see front matter # 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2007.12.004

I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188 1179

current literature: c

(a) Sugeno-Yasukawa (1993) approach where fuzzy sets of R : ALSO ðIF antecedenti THENconsequenti Þ (1)

i¼1

both the right- and left-hand sides are determined either

by experts or by fuzzy clustering algorithms such as where c* is the number of rules in a rule base either given by

FCM [1] with several alternatives. experts or it is determined by a fuzzy clustering algorithm such

(b) Takagi and Sugeno [5] approach where fuzzy sets of the as FCM. The fuzzy rule base structures determined by alter-

left-hand sides of a fuzzy rule base are determined natives (i), (a) and (b) stated above mainly differ in the

either by experts or by fuzzy clustering algorithms such representation of the consequents in structure (1). If the con-

as FCM [1] and the right-hand sides are functions sequent is represented with fuzzy sets then the fuzzy rule base

determined either by experts or by function estimation can be categorized as alternative (i) (a). This is the one initially

methods. proposed by Zadeh [3] originally applied by Mamdani and

(ii) There appears to be two different approaches under the Assilian [4], and a modified version is proposed by Sugeno and

heading of fuzzy ‘‘Fuzzy Regression’’: Yasukawa Fuzzy Rule Base (1993). Thus, we will call this

(a) Methods that were proposed by Tanaka [6] and Sugeno-Yasukawa Fuzzy Rule base, SY-FRB, structure.

investigated by Tanaka et al. [7,8], Tanaka and Whereas, if the consequents are represented with linear equa-

Ishibuchi [9], Celmins [10], Celmins [11], Savic and tions of input variables, then the rule base structure is the

Pedryze [12] in current literature, where the coeffi- alternative (i) (b) which we call Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Rule

cients of input variables are assumed to be fuzzy Base [5], TS-FRB, structure. Thus SY-FRB and TS-FRB are

numbers. These fuzzy regression models are based considered to be special cases of Zadeh Fuzzy Rule Bases, Z-

on the possibility theory instead of the probability FRB. These special cases of Z-FRB, i.e., SY-FRB and TS-FRB

theory. structures can be formalized as follows.

(b) Method proposed by Hathaway and Bezdek [13] where In general, let nv be the number of selected input variables in

first the fuzzy clusters determined by an FCM method the system. Then, the multidimensional antecedent, x, can be

define how many ordinary regressions are to be defined as x ¼ ðx1 ; x2 ; . . . ; xnv Þ, where xj is the jth input variable

constructed, one for each cluster. Next each fuzzy of the antecedent and the domain of x in X, can be defined as

cluster is used essentially for switching purposes to X ¼ X 1 X 1 ; . . . ; X nv , where Xj R is the domain of variable xj.

determine the most appropriate ordinary regression Similarly, the domain of the output variable, y, will be denoted

that is to be applied for a new input from amongst a as Y R. Then, the ith rule, Ri, and rulebase, R, in SY-FRB

number of ordinary regressions determined in the first structure can be defined as

place. nv

Ri : IF ANDðx j 2 X j isr Ai j Þ THEN y 2 Y isr Bi ;

j¼1

It is to be noted that we are proposing ‘‘Fuzzy Functions- (2)

LSE’’ as an alternate to ‘‘Fuzzy Rule Base’’ approaches as well 8 i ¼ 1; :::; c

as ‘‘Fuzzy Regression’’ approaches that we have briefly c nv

reviewed above. Thus once we specify the details of our R : ALSOðIF ANDðx j 2 X j isr Ai j Þ THEN y 2 Y isr Bi Þ

i¼1 j¼1

proposed approach of ‘‘Fuzzy Functions with LSE’’ (FF-LSE),

(3)

we will compare our results with ‘‘Ordinary Least Squares

Estimation, OLSE’’ approach. where Aij is the linguistic label, i.e., fuzzy subset, associated

with jth input variable of the antecedent in the ith rule, Ri, with

2. Background of fuzzy system models membership function mi(xj):Xj ! [0,1] and similarly Bi is the

consequent linguistic label, i.e., consequent fuzzy subset, of the

Before we discuss the details of our proposed ‘‘Fuzzy ith rule with membership function mi(y):Y ! [0,1], and c* is

Functions’’, let us briefly review the structure of fuzzy rule the number of rules in the model. In this structure, the

bases specified in (i) (a) and (b). challenges for knowledge representation are (1) to identify the

membership functions of fuzzy sets on the left- and right-hand

2.1. Fuzzy rule base models sides of the rules and (2) to identify the most suitable t-norm

and t-conorm combinations that represent in a one-to-

The most commonly applied fuzzy rule bases are fuzzy one correspondence the linguistic ‘‘AND’’ and ‘‘OR’’ for the

system models which attempt to identify the underlying combination of left-hand side fuzzy subsets together with the

relationship between input and output variables of a system by implication operator, ‘‘IMP’’, that will carry the left-hand side

fuzzy sets. In this paper, we will only deal with Multi-Input membership degree, i.e., the degree of firing, to the right-hand

Single Output (MISO) systems. Generally fuzzy system side consequent fuzzy subset. As well, one needs to know and

models represent relationships between the input and output be able to apply fuzzy logic to carry out approximate reasoning.

variables which are expressed as a collection of IF-THEN rules It should be recalled that Mamdani and Assilian [4] applied Min

that utilize linguistic labels, which are represented with fuzzy operator for both ‘‘AND and ‘‘IMP’’ which is a very special

sets. The general fuzzy rule base structure can be written as case whereas SY-FRB is more general. On the other hand, when

1180 I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188

the linguistic ‘‘AND’’ and ‘‘OR’’ operators can not be output universe of discourse Y [20]. In general, X and Y stand for

represented in a one-to-one correspondence with a t-norm the set of all possible values of the input variable x and the set of

and a t-conorm, respectively, as it is shown by Türkşen [14,15], all possible values of the output variable y, respectively. The

then the FDCF and FCCF, Fuzzy Disjunctive and Conjunctive relation between x and y plays a crucial role in the analysis of

Canonical Forms, are to be used for the representation of rules the system S. It is usually desirable to find a functional relation

and for reasoning with them. However, such models fall into between x and y, which is conceived as an ordinary function f:

Interval-Valued Type 2 fuzzy systems analyses which are not X ! Y; in general. Let us consider an ordinary function f:

dealt with in this paper. Finally, one has to carry out X ! Y; proposed for the functional dependency of y to x: To

defuzzification computations in all fuzzy rule base models. investigate the appropriateness of f for the functional

Furthermore the above structure assumes non-interactivity dependency of y to x, for a certain state of x and for the

between input variables [3]. In fact, this is the underlying corresponding state of y, let us measure the values of x and y.

assumption when the fuzzy subsets for the left- and right-hand From a theoretical point of view, for the measured values x-

sides are obtained from experts by interview techniques. In measured of x and y-measured of y, it is expected that the value

order to eliminate the non-interactivity assumption, Delgado y-measured should coincide with the theoretically expected

et al. [16], Babuska and Verbruggen [17], and Uncu and value f(x-measured) of y. However, practically, these two values

Türkşen [18] used multi-dimensional Type 1 fuzzy subsets to are not usually equal, but they can be very close or very similar

represent the antecedent part of the rules. In such investigations, to each other. The classical assumption, asserting the functional

generally a multi-dimensional fuzzy clustering technique, e.g., dependency of y to x as an ordinary function f: X ! Y; does not

FCM is implemented to obtain multi-dimensional fuzzy subsets tell us any thing about how the measured value x-measured of x

that capture the interactivity (or joint affect) of input variables. relates to the measured value y-measured of y; and how the

Hence, the Z-FRB structure can be expressed as follows: measured value y-measured of y and the hypothetically claimed

c

value f(x-measured) of y relate to each other. Demirci [20]

R: ALSO ðIF x 2 X isr Ai THEN y 2 Y isr Bi Þ (4) states that the main difficulty behind these two problems in the

i¼1

classical approach results from the assumption that each

where the multi-dimensional antecedent fuzzy subset of ith rule possible value of x is related to a unique possible value of y, and

is Ai. This multi-dimensional antecedent fuzzy subset determi- both the indistinguishability of the input values and the

nation eliminates the search for the appropriate t-norm for the indistinguishability of the output values are always omitted

combination of antecedent fuzzy subsets with ‘‘AND’’. Thus, mathematically. Instead of the classical assumption that accepts

the degree of firing, say, for the-ith rule, is determined directly the functional dependency of y to x as an ordinary function f:

from the corresponding ith multi-dimensional antecedent fuzzy X ! Y, Demirci [20] proposes a vaguely defined function from

subset Ai and applied to the consequent fuzzy subset with the X to Y for the description of the functional dependency of y to x

selection of appropriate implication operator, ‘‘IMP’’. But to solve these problems.

again requiring a search and a selection of a t-norm–con- In other words, taking the M-equivalence relations E on X

orm-based ‘‘IMP’’ operators. In particular, Sugeno-Yasukawa, and F on Y into account, Demirci [20] suggests that a strong

SW-FRB, would thus be expressed as Eq. (4) above; and fuzzy function r in L[X Y] from X to Y w.r.t. E and F can be

Takagi-Sugeno, TS-FRB, Fuzzy Rule Base structures would taken as the mathematical representation of the functional

thus be expressed with Eq. (5) as follows: dependency of y to x, where the M-equivalence relations on X is

c

called an M-equivalent similarity relation [22] such that

R: ALSO ðIF antecedenti THEN yi ¼ ai xT þ bi Þ (5) M = (L, < = , *) denotes an integral, commutative cqm-lattice

i¼1

with L = [0,1] and * a t-norm. For the proposed ordinary

where antecedenti = x 2 X isr Ai, and ai ¼ ðai;1 ; . . . ; ai;nv Þ is the function, f: X ! Y, to represent the functional dependency of y

regression coefficient vector associated with the ith rule in Eq. (5) to x, f can be thought as a hypothetical or an ideal description of

whereas bi’s are the scalars associated with the ith rule of Eq. (5). the functional dependency of y to x. For M-equivalence

For these special cases of Z-FRB, again each degree of firing, di, relations E on X and F on Y, a strong fuzzy function r in

associated with the-ith rule, is determined directly from the L[X Y] from X to Y w.r.t. E and F with the property f in

corresponding ith multi-dimensional antecedent fuzzy subset ORD(r) can be also conceived as a realistic and a

Ai and applied to the consequent fuzzy subset for the SY-FRB comprehensive description of the functional dependency of y

or to the classical ordinary regression for the case of TS-FRB. to x which does not ignore the indistinguishability of input

values and the indistinguishability of output values. For each x

3. Fuzzy functions in X and y in Y; the element r(x, y) of L can be interpreted as the

degree of the truth of the statement ‘‘y takes the value y for a

A conceptual origin of our proposed FF-LSE may be found given value x of x,’’ where the top element 1 (the bottom

in Demirci [19,20], Demirci and Recasens [21] discusses the element 0) of L denotes the completely true (false) case of this

general properties of ‘‘Fuzzy Functions’’ from a perspective of statement. For the sake of simplicity, if we denote the output

mathematical theory. In particular he suggests (2003) an variable y by y(x) whenever x takes the value x in X; then, for

application possibility as follows: an input/output system S can each x in X on y in Y; r(x, y) will be nothing but the degree of the

be comprehended as an input universe of discourse X and an truth of ‘‘y(x) = y’’ [20].

I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188 1181

It is to be noted that while such theoretical analyses give us a methods as required in the current fuzzy regression meth-

base to start the formation of ‘‘Fuzzy Functions’’, it does not odologies.

specify how we are to obtain such ‘‘Fuzzy Functions’’. In this All they have to understand the notion of membership values

regard, our proposed approach, to be discussed next, provides a and how they can be obtained from a fuzzy clustering algorithm

novel way where such fuzzy functions can be determined in such as FCM in addition to their usual background knowledge

practical engineering applications. of a function estimation technique, e.g., LSE, etc.

Thus we propose a novel approach in order to provide any

3.1. Proposed FF-LSE easy entry into fuzzy system modeling for mathematicians

and statisticians who are working in industry and for other

The proposed FF-LSE‘s are structurally different from Z- novices. For this purpose, we first review the basic structure

FRB, SY-FRB, TS-FRB, and ‘‘Fuzzy Regression’’ models of of the well-known ‘‘Least Squares’’ method of function

Tanaka et al. [7], and its variations which are explained above, estimation and then present our generalization of it which

and Hathaway and Bezdek [13] model, because the proposed includes membership values and their transformations as

approach introduces membership values and their transforma- well as a logistic transformation of non-scalar input variables

tions as well as a logistic transformation of non-scalar original as new input variables in addition to the original scalar input

input variables as new input variables in addition to the original variables. It is to be noted that, with a logistic analysis of

scalar input variables for ‘‘Fuzzy Function’’ estimation with non-scalar input variables, we obtain the frequency

LSE. With this new set of (augmented) input variables, one information with which non-scalar variables occur in system

executes a fuzzy clustering algorithm such as FCM and first behavior description. This valuable information is extracted

determines (local) optimum number of fuzzy clusters and via a logistic analysis because non-scalar variables cannot be

hence the associated membership values and then identifies a used directly in FCM. It should be recalled that FCM

fuzzy function to represent each fuzzy cluster separately. Thus requires that all its variables be scalar. In real life databases,

there are as many fuzzy functions as there are fuzzy clusters generally there are many non-scalar variables, i.e., nominal,

similar to Hathaway and Bezdek [13] model but they include binary and ordinal variables; and they contain valuable

membership functions as input arguments and thus there is no information that affects output variables based on some

need to use the cluster information for switching purposes. performance measure.

These fuzzy functions are estimated by the least squares

method in this paper. Therefore, it is structurally a new and 3.2. OLSE method

unique approach for the determination of fuzzy functions

instead of fuzzy rule bases. They represent fuzzy rule bases In OLSE method, the dependent variable, y, is assumed to be

indirectly. It is to be noted for the sake of emphasis that a linear function of one or more independent, input, variables, x,

coefficients of the inputs, whether they be membership values plus an error component as follows:

or their transformations or original input variables, are not

fuzzy sets in our proposed approach. Instead membership y ¼ b0 þ b1 x1 þ . . . þ bnv xnv þ e (9)

values and their transformations enter into an augmented input

set as new and additional variables. In our experience, it is where y is the dependent output, xj’s are the input or explanatory

found that this approach is most suitable for those analysts who variables, for j ¼ 1; . . . ; nv, nv is the number of selected inputs

are familiar with a function estimation technology, e.g., the and e is the independent error term which is typically assumed

least squares technology, etc. They only need to develop an to be normally distributed. The goal of the least squares method

understanding of fuzzy clustering algorithms without studying is to obtain estimates of the unknown parameters, bj’s,

many aspects of fuzzy theory. That is they generally do not j ¼ 0; 1; . . . ; nv, which indicate how a change in one of the

need to know or to develop an in-depth understanding of independent variables affects the dependent variable. The usual

essential concepts for the development and use of fuzzy rule method is known as the ‘‘Ordinary Least Squares’’, OLS. It

bases such as the estimation of membership functions, the should be emphasized that only one function is estimated for

selection of t-norms and co-norms for the combination of the the whole training data set. In OLS exercises, generally, there is

left-hand side membership functions and the selection of no prior clustering, in fact no fuzzy clustering that is deter-

implication operator to determine the affect of the left-hand mined ahead of time. Only one function is fitted to the over all

side on the right-hand side membership function. Furthermore, training data.

they do not need to study fuzzy logic, such as GMP, In matrix notation, the general linear model is expressed

Generalized Modus Ponens, fuzzification, de-fuzzification as

and various alternatives associated with all these essential

concepts. Generally such concepts are new to most mathe- Y ¼ Xb þ e

maticians and statisticians in industry who are not working

within fuzzy theory nor would they have time to study it. Nor where Y is [nd, 1] vector of response values, X is ½nd; nv þ 1

would such researchers have to develop an understanding of matrix of known constants which are inputs, nd represents the

the essential concepts of fuzzy numbers, their centers and number of input–output vectors in a training data set and nv is

widths, and how to use them in least squares estimation the number of selected input variables, b is ½ðnv þ 1Þ; 1 vector

1182 I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188

of parameters and e is [nd,1] vector of errors such that: centers for m = m* and c = 1, . . ., c* as

bTnvþ1;1 ¼ ½b0 ; b1 ; b2 ; . . . ; bnv m

eTnd;1 ¼ ½e1 ; e2 ; :::; end From this, we identify the cluster centers of the ‘‘input

X nd;nvþ1 ¼ ½1; xk; j jk ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; nd; j ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; nv space’’ again for m = m* and c = 1, . . ., c* as

The objective is to minimize the total residual errors for the

vX; j ¼ ðxc1; j ; xc2; j ; . . . ; xcnv; j Þ

estimation of the parameters of the model, i.e. m

X

nd

Next, one computes the normalized membership values of

Min Q ðyk ðb0 þ b1 xk1 þ . . . þ bnv xknv ÞÞ

each vector of observations in the training data set with the use

k

of the cluster center values determined in the previous step.

In matrix notation, we re-write it and then take the partial There are generally two steps in these calculations.

derivatives with respect to b’s: First we determine the (local) optimum membership values

uik‘s and then determine mik‘s that are above an a-cut in order to

Min Q ¼ ðy XbÞT ðy XbÞ; eliminate harmonics generated by FCM as

@=@b½ðy XbÞT ðy XbÞ ¼ 0;

2ðX T XÞb ¼ 2X T y; 2 1

m1

1 X

c xk vX;i

b ¼ ðX T XÞ X T y:

uik ¼ ; mik a (10)

provided that XTX is not singular. j¼1 x v

k X; j

where mik denotes the membership value of the kth vector,

k = 1, . . ., nd, in the ith rule, i = 1, . . ., c* and xk denotes the kth

The proposed generalization of OLSE as FF-LSE requires

vector and for all the input variables j ¼ 1; . . . ; nv, in the input

that a fuzzy clustering algorithm, such as FCM [1], be available

space.

to determine the interactive (joint) membership values of input–

(2) Next, we normalize them as

output variables in each of the fuzzy clusters that can be

identified for a given training data set.Let (Xk,Yk), k = 1,. . ., nd,

mi j ðx j Þ

be the set of observations in a training data set, such that g i j ðx j Þ ¼ Pc (11)

i0 ¼1 mi0 j ðx j Þ

X k ¼ ðx jk j j ¼ 1; . . . ; nv; k ¼ 1; . . . ; ndÞ

where these normalized membership values of xj, j = 1, . . ., nd,

First, one determines the optimal (m*, c*) pair for a in the ith rule, i = 1, . . ., c*, which in turn indicate the member-

particular performance measure, i.e., a cluster validity index, ship values that will constitute an new input variable in our

with a iterative search and an application of FCM algorithm, proposed scheme of function identification for the representa-

where m is the level of fuzziness (in our experiments we usually tion of ith cluster. Let Gi = (gijji = 1, . . ., c*, j = 1, . . ., nd) be the

take m = 1.1, . . ., 2.5), and c is the number of clusters (in our membership values of X in the ith cluster, i.e., ith rule.

experiments we usually take c = 2, . . ., 10). It should be recalled Next we determine a new augmented input matrix X for each

that the well-known FCM algorithm is stated as [1] of the clusters which could take on several forms depending on

which transformations of membership values we want to or

X

nd X

c

need to include in our system structure identification for our

min J ðU; VÞ ¼ ðuik Þm ðkxk vi kÞA

intended system analyses. Examples of these are

k¼1 i¼1

s:t: 0 uik 1; 8 i; k

X c

X 0i ¼ ½1; G i ; X; or X 00i ¼ ½1; G 2i ; X; or X 000

i

uik ¼ 1; 8 k

i¼1 ¼ ½1; G 2i ; G m

i ; expðG i Þ; X; etc:

X

nd

0 uik nd; 8 i

k¼1 where X 0i ; X 00i ; X 000

i are the augmented input matrices to be used in

least squares estimation of a new system structure identification

where J is objective function to be minimized, jjjjA is a norm and Gi = (gijji = 1, . . ., c*; j = 1, . . ., nd). The choice depends on

that specifies a distance based similarity between the data whether we want to or need to include just the membership

vector xk and a fuzzy cluster center vi. In particular, A = I is values or some of their transformations as new input variables

the Euclidian Norm and A = C1 is the Mahalonobis Norm, etc. in order to obtain a best representation of a system behavior. A

Once the optimal pair (m*, c*) is determined with the new augmented input matrix, say X 0i, would look as follows for

application of FCM algorithm, one next identifies the cluster the special case of X = Xj, i.e., the matrix X is just a vector of a

I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188 1183

single variable, Xj = (xjkjk = 1, . . ., nd) for the jth input variable: compared with the ‘‘Ordinary Least Squares Estimation’’,

2 3 OLSE, functions on the bases of R-square measure of

1 g i1 xi j

6. performance. It is shown that the predictions made by ‘‘Fuzzy

X 0i j ¼ ½1; G i ; X i j ¼ 4 .. ... .. 7

. 5 Functions with LSE’’ are at least 10% or better that the

1 g ind xijnd predictions made by OLSE with respect to R-square.

Thus the function Yi = bi0 + bi1Gi + bi2Xij, that represents the 4.1. Desulfurization case study

ith rule corresponding to the ith interactive (joint) cluster in

(Yi,Gi,Xj) space, would be estimated as follows: Desulfurization facility in a large scale steel industry is used

bi ¼ ðX 0i j TX 0i j Þ1 ðX 0i j TY i Þ, where X 0i j ¼ ½1; G i ; X i j , pro- to remove the sulfur from hot molten steel coming from blast

vided the inverse exists. furnaces before it is sent to the next operation in the processing

Such that bi ¼ ðbi0 ; bi1 ; bi2 Þ and the estimate of Yi would be sequence. Desulfurization is carried out by the injection of two

obtained as Yi ¼ bi0 þ bi1 G i þ bi2 X i j . Within the proposed different powdered reagents, Reagent1 and Reagent2, directly

framework, the general form of the shape of a cluster for the into the hot molten steel by means of a lance. The reagents react

case of a single input variable Xj and for the ith cluster can be with the sulfur in the hot metal. Then the sulfur rich slag is

conceptually captured by a second order (cone) function when separated from the steel.

one introduces the square of membership values into the

augmented input matrix in the space of U X Y which can 4.1.1. Objective

be illustrated with a prototype shown in Fig. 1. The purpose of the modeling activity is that a reduction in

In a number of real life case studies, we have in fact found reagent consumption would be possible if a more precise and

out that generally some second order or exponential functions reliable model can be developed to estimate the right amount of

give a good approximation from amongst the following 20 reagents to be used in the desulphurization process. This is

alternatives we have experimented: based on the fact that in desulphurization process, the target

Model1 X0 ¼ ð1; G ; XÞ amount of sulfur, i.e., the aim sulfur, is often set much lower

Model2 X0 ¼ ð1; G ; G 2 ; XÞ than the actual sulfur value that comes from blast furnaces. The

Model3 X0 ¼ ð1; G m ; XÞ ‘‘aim sulfur’’ specifies the quality of steel demanded by

Model4 X0 ¼ ð1; eG ; XÞ customers. One of the key concerns in this case study is that

.. when a model with poor predictive capability is used, it requires

. that many batches of hot metal to be desulphurized again and

Model20 X 0 ð1; G ; eG m ; G m ; XÞ again. It should be noted that the desulphurization process is a

highly expensive process.

4. Real life case study applications Therefore, the main objective in this exercise is to minimize

the number of desulphurization processes by an increase of a

The proposed FF-LSE’s were developed for and applied to model’s prediction ability. For this purpose, FF-LSE’s were

two real life case studies. We briefly review here these two case developed and applied to provide a more accurate and reliable

studies: (1) desulfurization process of steel for a steel company, determinations of reagent amounts in order to desulfurize each

and (2) income prediction of customers for a bank. The results new batch of hot metal. As well, the same dataset is used to

of the fuzzy functions developed in these investigations are determine OLSE, Ordinary LSE, in order to show that it is

advantageous to use the proposed approach.

In summary, the objective of the desulphurization process is

basically to adjust the level of sulfur in the steel to meet a

quality specification. The sulfur is removed from the metal by

adding two different reagents, Reagent1 and Reagent2. These

reagents bind the sulfur and move it into the slag layer, which

forms on top of the hot metal. After the sulfur is removed from

the hot metal, then it is used to produce the final steel product.

As each batch of hot metal arrives at the station, a model is used

to predict ‘‘what amount of each of the reagents’’ will be

required to produce the final steel product quality.

4.1.2. Dataset

The input variables used in the dataset can be divided into

two parts: scalar and non-scalar variables. Scalar variables have

continuous values between (1 and +1) whereas non-scalar

variables can be either binary or ordinal variables. Hence some

of the variables of the Desulfurization model are (1) scalar

Fig. 1. A fuzzy cluster in U X Y space. variables: start sulfur, KGS, Temp, FB, aim-sulfur, end-sulfur,

1184 I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188

compounds 1–5 and (2) binary or ordinal variables: Car-Type, probability of a certain event occurring. From the equation

Pos, Practice 1–6, Injection #, Equipment Type. shown above, the probability of Y = 1 is calculated in the

Note that, since the goal of the model is to predict what general case as follows:

amount of each of the reagents are required to produce the final Pn

steel product, the model has two dependent output, Y, variables, eb 0 þ i¼1

bi xi

one for Reagent1 and the other for Reagent2. It is found that pðY ¼ 1Þ ¼ Pn

these two variables in general are highly correlated. 1 þ eb 0 þ i¼1

b i xi

4.1.3. Data pre-processing Logistic regression thus forms a predictor variable (log( p/

In the beginning of the desulfurization project, various data (1 p)) which is a linear combination of the binary or ordinal

pre-processing techniques have been applied to construct a explanatory variables. The values of this predictor variable are

dataset to determine FF-LSE’s as well as OLSE’s in order to then transformed into probabilities by a logistic function.

estimate the necessary amounts of reagents needed in each In this study, only the discrete explanatory variables, i.e.,

process. binary and ordinal, in the dataset are used to model logistic

We were given a desulphurization dataset which contained regression. Because the original response variables are scalar,

approximately 13,000 observations, i.e., vectors, with 27 each response variable is sorted and then divided into two

variables composed of binary, ordinal and scalar variables as groups, each of which has the equal amount of observations.

well as a few categorical variables. Each observation represents Thereby, two new binary output variables are constructed. As a

a data vector for one batch of hot metal. result, using the new binary response variables and the same

First various outlier treatments have been conducted discrete explanatory variables, two logistic regression models

applying expert knowledge. After the outlier treatments, are constructed using the probabilities as the fitted values.

the remaining dataset contained only 9475 observations. Next The correlations of probabilities of fitted logistic regression

the dataset was partitioned into two separate datasets, namely model with the binary response variable are calculated and the

the training and testing datasets, using a proposed sampling probabilities having the highest correlation to the response

technique, known as Partial Iterative Sampling Method (PISM). variables are added as the new input variable to the original

PISM is an iterative method used to select best chunk of data to input variable dataset to form the augmented input variable data

be used for modeling. Different training and testing datasets are set.

prepared in each iteration. The steps of this iterative process are It should be recalled that the two response variables,

omitted for the sake of page restriction. Reagent1 and Reagent2, are highly correlated; hence the

selected probabilities of these two response variables are more

4.1.4. Variable selection or less identical. Based on this, the probability from Reagent1’s

The process of selecting input variables of the system logistic regression model is used as the new input for the

includes correlation analysis, descriptive statistics, and expert formation of FF-LSE.

knowledge. Recall that FCM requires that explanatory and

response variables be scalar. In addition, the effect of non-scalar 4.1.6. Formation of FF-FRB-LSE

variables can also be determined by a logistic regression We have developed and search through a good number of

analysis. With the application of Logistic Regression, one can FF-LSE models. Amongst these, we very briefly discuss four

capture the probability by which non-scalar input variables can specific models which are labeled as FF-LSE-M1, FF-LSE-M2,

affect an output variable. These probabilities are included as FF-LSE-M3, and FF-LSE-M4. The augmented matrices of

new additional variables into the augmented input dataset. these four models are specific selections from the 20 models

partly shown above: Model1–Model20. As well, Fuzzy

4.1.5. Logistic regression Functions-LSE are constructed for each of the two output

Logistic regression is a variation of ordinary regression. variables, Reagent1 and Reagent2, separately. These four FF-

Unlike ordinary linear regression, logistic regression does not LSE models are built using our FSM tool developed with SAS

assume that the relationship between the independent variables 9.1 in KIS Lab, Knowledge/Intelligence Laboratory, by KIS

and the dependent variable is a linear one. Nor does it assume Lab Software development group. (For more information about

that the dependent variable or the error terms are distributed the software see http://www.mie.utoronto.ca/labs/fuzzy/

normally. Fsmdemo.html.) Again for each of the four different model

The form of the model in general is structures, a heuristic search has been applied to find the

optimum model parameters. For comparative purposes, the

p results from each of the four sub-optimum FF-LSE models

log ¼ b0 þ b1 X 1 þ b2 X 2 þ þ bk X k

1 p together with OLSE are shown in Table 1. (Recall that FCM

identifies sub-optimal clusters.)

where p is the probability that Y = 1 and X1, X2, . . ., Xk are the As it was stated before, the FF-LSE models are better

binary or ordinal independent variables (predictors); and b0, b1, predictors of the outputs by 10% or more as shown above.

b2, . . ., bk are known as the regression coefficients, which have The coefficients of the best FF-LSE’s, i.e., FF-LSE-M3, are

to be estimated from the data. Logistic regression estimates the shown in Table 2.

I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188 1185

Table 1

R-Square values of the Reagent1 and Reagent2 estimations using OLSE and FF-LSE approach for the test dataset

Model name: desulfurization R-Square Parameters

Reagent1 Reagent2 Average m* c*

Ordinary Least Square Estimation 0.82 0.76 0.79

FF models

FF-LSE-M1 (12 input) 0.92 0.93 0.925 1.5 3

FF-LSE-M2 (13 input) 0.925 0.934 0.93 1.5 3

FF-LSE-M3 (16 input) 0.9243 0.936 0.931** 1.5 3

FF-LSE-M4 (18 input) 0.9255 0.93 0.928 1.5 3

m*: optimum degree of fuzziness, c*: optimum cluster size, ‘‘Average’’ column represents the performance obtained form the average of R-square values for Reagent1

and Reagent2 models, respectively, **: bold numbers indicate optimal results.

The coefficients of the optimum FF-LSE method, where optimum c* = 3, and

The objective of Income Prediction Model is to develop optimum m* = 1.5

models based on the available personal information in order to Coefficient Reagent1

estimate the income of a bank’s customers in order to provide

Cluster1 Cluster2 Cluster3

bank’s decision makers with necessary decision support

indicators. b0 604.362 100.462 238.463

bG 1306.790 137.070 320.120

bG 2 4567.480 110.800 196.700

4.2.1. Objectives beG 1568.750 119.660 312.560

The requirement underlying the income prediction modeling beG m 964.406 18.830 74.002

bG m 4296.000 74.370 106.630

case study can be summarized as follows: ‘‘A financial

bx1 0.478 0.475 0.475

institution is willing to offer its customers a special financial bx2 0.268 0.255 0.255

package such as credit cards, loans, mortgages, etc. But they bx3 0.215 0.219 0.220

needed to know if a customer is suitable or not to be eligible for bx4 0.095 0.021 0.031

this offer. For this reason, the income of its future customers bx5 0.059 0.068 0.068

bx6 0.007 0.044 0.037

needs to be predicted before-hand based on certain information

bx7 0.048 0.039 0.038

they have gathered from other sources’’. The financial bx8 0.005 0.005 0.004

institution already has customers whose income they know bx9 0.135 0.131 0.132

before hand. The aim is to determine estimates of a customer’s bx10 0.097 0.005 0.008

income with the empirical data at hand. bx11 0.379 0.377 0.377

In this case study, FF-LSE and OLSE methods are applied to

Coefficient Reagent2

the data at hand in order to show the predictive performance

advantage of the proposed FF-LSE approach in comparison to Cluster1 Cluster2 Cluster3

the OLSE. b0 310.880 219.165 339.778

bG 690.369 297.991 457.103

bG 2 – 220.290 287.490

4.2.2. Income prediction data set beG 790.615 270.785 442.356

There were roughly 500,000 data records available for this beG m 479.740 51.048 102.313

investigation which includes 200 variables such as general bG m 2194.800 140.170 159.820

demographical and geographical information (up to 15 bx1 0.504 0.497 0.497

variables), financial relationship summary (35 variables), bx2 0.281 0.274 0.274

bx3 0.173 0.177 0.178

product and activity descriptions, (80 variables), aggregate bx4 0.084 0.025 0.043

information (70 variables). bx5 0.049 0.057 0.057

bx6 0.001 0.039 0.026

bx7 0.063 0.049 0.049

4.2.3. Data pre-processing bx8 0.025 0.031 0.031

Missing values were treated by the application of certain bx9 0.156 0.154 0.155

criteria decided together with the experts from the bank. bx10 0.067 0.012 0.012

Datasets were segmented by proper categorical variables, i.e., bx11 0.394 0.385 0.385

residential area which is categorized into three groups, gender, b0: the constant coefficient, bG: the coefficient for the membership value, bG 2 :

product types, i.e., the number of products used. As a result of the coefficient for the squared membership value, beG: the coefficient for

this partition of the dataset, there were 11 segments. In this case exponential membership value, beG m : the coefficient for exponential of m

powered membership value, bG m : the coefficient of m powered membership

study, a dataset from a particular segment, which represents the value, bx1 to bx11 are the coefficients of the input variables, i.e., start-sulphur,

females living in the mid-income class range that had two aim-sulphur, KGS, TEMP, FB, compound1 to compound5, logistic regression

different financial products of the financial company, is probability, respectively.

1186 I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188

R-square values of income estimations for FF-LSE-M1, . . ., FF-LSE-M6 are

proposed FF-LSE method.

shown with m*: optimum degree of fuzziness, c*: optimum number of clusters

The dataset of the particular segment used in this study

consists of 35,095 customers after we applied the data cleaning Model name: income R2 m* c*

processes. Various statistical analyses, including descriptive Ordinary least square estimation 0.183 – –

analysis, histograms, scatter diagrams, correlation analysis, FF-LSE-M1 (13 input) 0.6228 2 5

etc., were conducted for the input variable selection on the input FF-LSE-M2 (14 input) 0.622 1.5 5

FF-LSE-M3 (15 input) 0.6232 2.0 5

dataset for the selected segment. In particular, 11 scalar

FF-LSE-M4 (14 input) 0.6235 2.0 5

variables and 15 nominal and ordinal variables are chosen FF-LSE-M5 (14 input) 0.624 1.5 5

among the 200 variables based on their highest explanatory FF-LSE-M6 (13 input) 0.62 2.0 3

power with respect to income variable. Bold numbers indicate optimal results.

The dataset is partitioned into training and testing datasets.

For each modeling technique, a separate Partial Iterative

Sampling Method (PISM) which is indicated previously is augmented matrices of these six models are formed with certain

applied and as a result of this sampling method, 5700 and 5000 particular membership function transformations and the

observations are selected for the training and the testing original input matrix, X, which includes the logistic transfor-

datasets, respectively. mation of certain non-scalar input variables as follows:

Again, logistic regression is applied to determine prob- The twelve input variables used for each model are

abilities, associated with the nominal, binary and ordinal

variables, which are included in FF-LSE’s as additional inputs Inputs: (1) withdrawl_am, (2) system_am, (3)

MNYIN_ACTIVE_TOTBAL_AM, (4) MNYIN_ACTIVE_PRTBAL_AM, (5)

in the augmented input matrix. For this purpose, the output branch_am, (6) AGE_YR, (7) withdrawl_ct, (8) system_ct, (9)

variable, ‘‘income’’, has been divided into three groups PSYTE_CLUSTR_ID, (10) DEM_CHQ_ACTIVE_CT, (11) branch_ct, (12)

according to

s values as follows: the first group includes probability from logistic regression

the input vectors with income values that fall within (1,s)

interval, the second group includes input vectors with income The comparisons of these six models together with the

values that fall within the [s, +s] interval and third group OLSE model are shown in Table 3 below.

includes the input vectors with income values that fall within The best FF-LSE model, i.e., FF-LSE-M5, where optimum

the (+s, 1) interval. An ordinal income variable for each vector c* = 5, and optimum m* = 1.5 and the original selected scalar

is created which gets 0 if the actual income variable falls within input variable including the logistic transformation of the

the first group, (1) if it falls within the second and (2) for the non-scalar original input variables are wdr_am:withdrawl_am,

third group. Ordinal logistic regression is applied using the syst_am:system_am, mnatbam:MNYIN_ACTIVE_TOTBA-

ordinal income variable as the output and the binary, ordinal L_AM,mnatpam: MNYIN_ACTIVE_PRTBAL_AM,brnch-

and nominal input variables as the explanatory variables. The am:branch_am,wgdwl_ct:withdrawl_ct, sys_ct:system_ct,

ordinal logistic regression results in three probability variables psy_id:PSYTE_CLUSTR_ID, dmcq_ct:DEM_CHQ_ACTI-

for three discrete values of ordinal income variable. Each VE_CT, brnch_ct:branch_ct,:Lr_Prob:Probability from logistic

probability variable represents the observed probability of each transformation.

value of the ordinal output given the inputs. For instance, the

first probability variable states the probability of ordinal income 5. Conclusions

being ‘‘0’’given the inputs, the second probability variable

states the probability of ordinal income being ‘‘1’’ given the ‘‘Fuzzy Functions with LSE’’ is proposed for the develop-

inputs and the third probability variable states the probability of ment of FSM’s for system representation and reasoning with

ordinal income being ‘‘2’’. The probability having the highest them. The proposed fuzzy functions are distinct and uniquely

correlation with the scalar income variable in the training different in structure identification and reasoning from: (1) the

dataset is selected as additional input to the augmented input rule bases originally proposed by Zadeh and initially

matrix; and as a result, each fuzzy model has one additional implemented by Mamdani and their important variations

input from logistic regression. In order to find the logistic proposed by Sugeno-Yasukava and Tagagi-Sugeno models, and

regression probabilities of a new observation, e.g., in the test (2) fuzzy regression models originally proposed by Tanaka

dataset, the logistic regression estimated coefficients are used et al. [7] and its variations as well as Hathaway and Bezdek

together with whichever probability is chosen for the train [13].

dataset, in order to determine the probability as the additional In the first case, the structural difference is in terms of

input variable value in FF-LSE’s. functional representation versus the rule base representation. In

fuzzy functions, membership values and their transformations

4.2.4. Application of FF-LSE obtained from a fuzzy clustering algorithm enter into an

Six FF-LSE models were developed, namely, FF-LSE- augmented input matrix together with a logistic transformation

M1,. . ., FF-LSE-M6, with 12 scalar inputs which include the of non-scalar original input variables for function identification

logistic regression probability value together with the six exercises in addition to original scalar input variables with

alternative additions of membership value transformations. The Least Squares estimation technique. Therefore, the reasoning

I.B. Türkşen / Applied Soft Computing 8 (2008) 1178–1188 1187

only requires the substitution of membership values of a new these applications, we have compared the results of fuzzy

input vector (observation), determined by an execution of a function approach only to the ordinary least squares

fuzzy clustering algorithm, together with the input variables of estimation. Comparisons with other approaches could be

a new input vector in to a number of fuzzy functions. The made, but this is left for our future studies. In these

number of fuzzy functions being equal to the number of rules, comparisons, we have shown several models of fuzzy

i.e., fuzzy clusters that is determined by, say, FCM. Whereas in functions together with the best amongst them. It should

fuzzy rule bases, membership functions of fuzzy sets associated be noted that the best model result is generally obtained by

with the original input variables as well as the output variable a more complicated augmented matrix. In practice, the

must be estimated either by experts or by a fuzzy clustering simplest fuzzy functions, which are obtained with the

technique for representation. Next for approximate reasoning, augmented matrix that contains only the membership

system analyst needs to identify combination operators known variable in addition to the original variables, might be good

as t-norms and t-conorms and the associated implication enough for its operational simplicity and its closeness to

operator as well as needs to implement fuzzification, General- the best model with respect to a performance measure.

ized Modus Ponens and defuzzification. Thus for the However, one generally obtains a better estimate when

representation and reasoning with fuzzy functions, the transformations of membership values are included in the

application oriented mathematicians and statisticians: (1) do augmented matrix.

not need to deal with membership function estimation of fuzzy

sets, after membership values are obtained either from experts

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