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Sylvain

15th of December 2014

Organization

• Exam date (no guarantee): Sat. 31.01.2015 from 9 to 11am (Höngg)

• Exam review: We. 25.02.2015 from 12 to 1pm

• Remark: please fill in the TA evaluation form and hand it in at the end!

Series 5

Series 6

Exercise 1: Blocking

Blocking

• Goal: deal with nuisance factor (reduce extra variability and avoid confounding)

• Origin: agriculture

• Examples: batches, subjects, hospital, etc.

• What happens if you don’t block?

• remember Fstat = M Streat /M Sres . . . What happens if H0 is true? think about it.

Blocking: remarks

• What if you know, but can’t control a nuisance factor (ex: people choose their hospital, you forgot to

control, etc.)?

• Analysis of Covariance. Why is this different? What is preferable and why?

• What about nuisance factor that you don’t know and can’t control for? randomization

• How to interpret p-values of block factor?

• Model with fixed vs. random effects.

1

RCBD and BIBD

Ideally, every treatment is tested in every block. The experimental units are assigned at random to each

block, and each treatment is tested in each block:

Sometimes it is impossible to have each treatment in each block (e.g. wine tasting with 100 wines and 20

people)

How would you solve that?

2. BIBD: Balanced incomplete block design

BIBD

• Typically, you are given the number of treatments n to test and the size of a block k. These are

constraints of the experiment.

• For example: k is 4 wheels on a car, maximum number of wines to taste, etc.

• Rule: any two treatments occur together the same number of times: λ.

• Goal: find such a design, while minimizing the number of blocks needed. . .

• Solution: play with the equations on p.86 of the lecture notes

Cirrhosis treatment

• Each patient is given one of two surgery. Y is measured before and after.

2

Load the data

Sh <-read.table("http://stat.ethz.ch/Teaching/Datasets/Shunt.txt",header=TRUE)

Sh$Subject <- as.factor(Sh$Subject)

Sh$Treatment <- as.factor(Sh$Treatment)

Sh$Time <- as.factor(Sh$Time)

head(Sh, 10)

## 1 1 Selective Pre 51

## 2 1 Selective Post 48

## 3 2 Selective Pre 35

## 4 2 Selective Post 55

## 5 3 Selective Pre 66

## 6 3 Selective Post 60

## 7 4 Selective Pre 40

## 8 4 Selective Post 35

## 9 5 Selective Pre 39

## 10 5 Selective Post 36

3

What is the design?

• More info in this pdf

• Fix one factor (mainplot), vary a second factor (subplot)

• Example: mainplot=land with irrigation system, subplot=fertilizer type

• aov(Y ~ main*nested + Error(grouping/nested))

• or, with lme4: lmer(Y~ main*nested + (1|grouping), data=Sh)

Split-plot

• If ignore Subject: you ignore the fact that observations are not true replicate, but come from the same

person => wrong inference

• That’s why Subject appears as a random effect!

60

50

Treatment

Nonselective

Y

40

Selective

30

20

Time

4

Exercise 3: Pizza

3 types of pizzas in 6 different packaging. What kind of experiment could you make?

Exercise 4: oxygen

Optimization of a process

A chemical plant produces oxygen with some process. We want to find the optimal pressure and temperature.

5

1.5

Purity

88

Pressure

86

1.2 84

82

80

0.9

Temp

• Like a factorial design, but we want to apply it sequentially to find the maximum.

• Steepest ascent model (First-order): Y = µ + Atemp + Bpressure +

• From your point, find the direction in which the response changes the most. Move in this direction and

repeat.

We zoom on a zone and approximate it with a plane. Then move in the direction of steepest ascent, etc.

6

1.30

Purity

1.25 88

Pressure

86

84

1.20

82

80

1.15

1.10

−225.0 −222.5 −220.0 −217.5 −215.0

Temp

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Remarks

• Often we assume that data are balanced. But in reality often you have missing values, or incomplete

design, etc.

• Such design are said to be non-orthogonal. What does it mean? Why does it matter?

P

• X1 and X2 are orthogonal if: i X1i X2i = 0.

X1 X2 Y

1 1 3

1 -1 4

-1 1 2

-1 -1 3

Non-orthogonal

• When the design is non-orthogonal, the effects cannot be estimated independently. . .

• Think about linear regression:

• If all X are independent, muliple regression is equivalent to p univariate regression.

• If not, then things change. . .

7

Non-orthogonal design and SS

• with non-orthogonal design not anymore.

• In particular, type I SS depends on the order: aov(y~A+B) != aov(y~B+A)

• type III SS doesn’t depend on the order, but the usual SS decomposition is lost. . . with R: drop1(fit).

• A nonsignificant difference (eg, P=.05) means there is no difference between groups

• If P=0.05, even if there is no difference (the null is true), there is a 5% chance to observe a difference

such as the one in the data.

Exam

• open book

• everything is tested: ANOVA and experimental design

• Some basic calculations by hand

• Don’t stress out: most subtasks are independent of each other. If you’re stuck at one of them, continue

to the next one. If you need a result that you didn’t obtain, assume a fictive value and move on.

• Good luck!

• Question hour: Th. 15.01.2015 from 2 to 3pm in HG G26.3

8

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!

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