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Risk Management

Educating XXIst century


Civil Engineers in Barcelona

Barcelona, November 2018

AA VV

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 Outline
 Principles of Risk Management
 Elements of Risk Management
 Some real examples
 Practical Case

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Principles of Risk Management

Main Objective
Risk assessments and management permits to define,
know and quantify different events which can occur during
the project,.
 Trying to anticipate to the future. These potential events
can be:
•Negative Threats (Negative Impacts on Profit)
•Positive  Opportunities (Positive Impacts on Profit)

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Principles of Risk Management

How to deal with risks?


Human
Resource
Plan

Quality Work
Management Management
Plan Plan

Plan
Risk
Project Time
Management Management
Plan Plan

Information Cost
Management Management
Plan Plan

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Principles of Risk Management

How to deal with risks?


Human
Resource
Plan

Quality Work
Management Management
Plan Plan

Risk
Risk
Manageme
Plan
Project Time
Management
Plan nt Plan Management
Plan

Information Cost
Management Management
Plan Plan

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Principles of Risk Management

Risk Management Plan


is an event which may translate into a
RISK situation that has a potential to cause
damages. Risk is associated a probability of
occurrence and an impact.

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Principles of Risk Management
Risk Management Plan -
Terminology

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Principles of Risk Management
Risk Management Plan -
Terminology

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Principles of Risk Management
Risk Management Plan –
Terminology
The environment within which decision takes place
can be divided into three parts:
• Certainty: only exists when one can specify
exactly what will happen during the period of time
covered by the decision. This does not happen very
often in the construction.
• Risk: is an event which may translate into a
situation that has a potential to cause damages. Risk
is associated a probability of occurrence and an
impact.
• Uncertainty: defined as a situation in which
there are no historic data or previous history relating
to the situation being considered by the decision-
maker.

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Principles of Risk Management
Risk Management Plan -
Terminology

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Principles of Risk Management

Large Infrastructure Project and Complexity


Large Infrastructure Projects LIPs are characterized by their: 
•Large Scale 
•Long Duration 
•Uniqueness 
•Complexity 
•Cost Uncertainty 
•Significant Proportion of Time & Cost in Construction Stage 

Relating the System, Work Breakdown Structure & Organization 
Breakdown Structure creates a Framework that helps all 
Stakeholders to Manage the Variables (Risks and Opportunities) 
and to Maintain Control and Balance of the Build Configuration 
through all Stages of the Lifecycle. Applying System Engineering 
Practices to LIPs can be the difference between Success & Failure.
System typically fails due to interfaces !!!!
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Principles of Risk Management

Risk Management as a tool to address complexity

“With advances in technology, major projects have become hugely 
complex. Great engineers of the past like Stephenson and Brunel could 
conduct an entire project with a manageable “headful” of information. This 
is no longer possible: modern projects are made up of a network of 
interoperating systems with a multiplicity of functions, technology and 
commercial imperatives. The complexities of interfaces and tradeoffs have 
to be carefully managed, together with risk, over the project’s entire life 
cycle. Disciplined Systems Integration techniques provide the key to 
managing complexity across a broad range of industries and offer additional 
benefits when implementing organizational systems and process changes in 
today’s multi‐owner, multi‐stakeholder environment”

Text taken from an MPA Meeting at the Royal college of Pathologists in London May
2002.

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Principles of Risk Management

Risk Management as a tool to address complexity

This complexity entangles potential risks and errors, increasingly likely to happen as 
the project evolves.

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Principles of Risk Management

Risk Management as a tool to address complexity

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Principles of Risk Management

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Principles of Risk Management
Project management process groups
Knowledge areas Initiating Process  Monitoring & Controlling Process  Closing Process 
Planning Process Group  Executing Process Group 
Group  Group  Group 
4. Project Integration  4.1 Develop  4.2 Develop Project Management Plan  4.3 Direct and Manage  4.4 Monitor and Control Project Work 4.6 Close Project 
Management  Project Charter  Project Work 4.5 Perform Integrated Change Control  or Phase 
5. Project Scope  5.1 Plan Scope Management 5.5 Validate Scope
Management  5.2 Collect Requirements 5.6 Control Scope
5.3 Define Scope 
5.4 Create WBS
6. Project Time  6.1 Plan Schedule Management 6.7 Control Schedule 
Management  6.2 Define Activities
6.3 Sequence Activities
6.4 Estimate Activity Resources
6.5 Estimate Activity Durations
6.6 Develop Schedule 
7. Project Cost  7.1 Plan Cost Management  7.4 Control Costs 
Management  7.2 Estimate Costs
7.3 Determine Budget
8.Project Quality  8.1 Plan Quality Management 8.2 Perform Quality  8.3 Control Quality
Management  Assurance 
9. Project Human  9.1 Plan Human Resource Management 9.2 Acquire Project Team
Resource Management  9.3 Develop Project Team
9.4 Manage Project Team 
10. Project  10.1 Plan Communications  10.2 Manage  10.3 Control Communications
Communications  Management Communications
Management 
11. Project Risk  11.1 Plan Risk Management 11.6 Control Risks 
Management  11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk Responses  
12. Project Procurement  12.1 Plan Procurement Management 12.2 Conduct  12.3 Control Procurements  12.4 Close 
Management  Procurements  Procurements 
13. Project Stakeholder  13.1 Identify  13.2 Plan Stakeholder Management 13.3 Manage Stakeholder  13.3 Control Stakeholder Engagement
Management 16 Stakeholders Engagement
Principles of Risk Management

Agreement Processes Technical Technical Processes


Acquisition Process Management Business or Mission Analysis 
Supply Process Processes Process
Project Planning Process Stakeholder Needs &
Organizational Project Project Assessment and Requirements Definition
Enabling  Processes Control Process Process
Life Cycle Model Decision Management System Requirements
Management Process Process Definition Process
Risk Management     
Process
Architecture Definition Process
Infrastructure Management Configuration 
Process Management
Portfolio Management Process Design Definition Process
Process Information Management System Analysis Process
Human Resource Process Implementation Process
Management Process Measurement Process Integration Process
Quality Management  Quality Assurance       
Verification  Process
Process Process
Transition Process
Validation Process
Operation Process
Maintenance Process
System life cycle processes [ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288 2015].
Disposal Process

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Principles of Risk Management

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Principles of Risk Management

Risk Management as a tool to address complexity

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

Examples of information gathering techniques used in identifying risks can include:

• Brainstorming: it consist of obtaining a comprehensive list of project risks. The project team
usually performs brainstorming about project risks. Continually, the risks are identified and categorized
by type of risk and their definitions are refined.

• Delphi technique: is a way to reach a consensus of experts. They participate in this


technique anonymously, answering a questionnaire to solicit ideas about the important project risks. In
a few rounds of this process the consensus can be achieved.

• Interviewing: interviewing experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter


experts helps to identify risks.

• Root cause analysis: is a specific technique used to identify a problem, discover the
underlying causes that lead to it, and develop preventive action

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

Sensitivity analysis: helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the
project. In addition, it examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project
element affects the objective being studied when all other uncertain elements are held at
their baseline values.
Prioritized list of quantified risks: this list includes those risks that pose greatest threat.
These include the risk that may have the greatest effect on cost and those that are most
likely to influence the critical path.

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

1. Deterministic Analysis
“Best case, Worst case and most probable case” and considering
Balance = Earned Value – Costs:
- Worst case : All costs are at highest value, while earned value are at lowest
estimate level.
- Best case: All costs are at lowest value, while earned value are at highest
estimate level
- Most probable case: Selected values are intermediate ones regarding both
costs and earned value.

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

Risk
Deterministic
Analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

2. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Montecarlo Method


Numerical Technique based on probabilistic studies

Distributions: Uniform, PERT

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

2. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Montecarlo Method

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

2. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Montecarlo Method

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

2. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Montecarlo Method

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

2. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Montecarlo Method

Advantages in front of deterministic analysis:


Probabilistic Results: They do not only show what can happens what how
much probable is a result to take place. Better Precision.
Graphic Results:. Important in order to communicate results to
stakeholders.
Sensibility Analysis: In Monte Carlo simulation is it easier to identify
which risks have more impact in the final results.

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

• Avoid: it is a risk response strategy whereby the project team acts to


eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact. The most radical
avoidance strategy is to shut down the project entirely. Some risks that
arise early in the project can be avoided by clarifying requirements,
obtaining information, improving communication, or acquiring expertise.

• Transfer: it is a risk response strategy whereby the project team shifts


the impact of the threat to a third party, together with ownership of the
response. Transferring does not mean disowning the risk by transferring it.
Transferring liability for risk is most effective in dealing with financial risk
exposure Transference tools can be quite diverse and include.

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

• Mitigate: it is a risk response strategy whereby the project team acts to


reduce the probability of occurrence or impact of a risk. Taking early action to
reduce the probability and/or impact of a risk occurring on the project is often
more effective than trying to repair the damage after the risk has occurred.
Where it is not possible to reduce probability, a mitigation response might
address the risk impact by targeting linkages that determine the severity.

• Accept: it is a risk response strategy whereby the project team decides to


acknowledge the risk and not take any action unless the risk occurs. This
strategy is adopted where it is not possible or cost-effective to address a
specific risk in any other way. This strategy can be either passive or active.
Passive acceptance requires no action except to document the strategy and to
periodically review the threat to ensure that it does not change significantly.
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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

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Elements of Risk Management

Risk  Risk 
Risk  Risk 
qualitative  quantitative  Risk control
identification response 
analysis analysis

Implementing contingency plans or workarounds sometimes results in


a change request. Change requests are prepared and submitted to the
Perform Integrated Change Control process. Change requests can include
recommended corrective and preventive actions as well.

• Recommended corrective actions. These are activities that realign the


performance of the project work with the project management plan. They
include contingency plans and workarounds. The latter are responses that were
not initially planned, but are required to deal with emerging risks that were
previously unidentified or accepted passively.

• Recommended preventive actions. These are activities that ensure that


future performance of the project work is aligned with the project management
plan.
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Some real examples

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Some real examples

Dimension Benefits Inconveniencies


Connectivity High risks for human lives
Social Less travel time Major accidents during construction
Not affected by weather Temporary occupation

Less Acoustic Emissions Dust & emissions during construction


Environmental Aquifers impacts
Less visual impact
Support for productive economy High investments
Financial Budget deviations
Reliable infrastructure

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Some real examples

Tunnel design and risk assessment


Quantitative risk assessment is coming to be used as part of tunnel safety
decision-making. The use of quantitative risk assessment has the potential for
leading to unacceptable designs. It is necessary to adopt a broad perspective and
be aware of the possible pitfalls of risk assessment. Beyond that, quantitative risk
assessment may then be composed of deterministic risk assessment or non-
deterministic risk assessment, or a mixture of the two.
When shifting to an approach which includes risk assessment the following
questions arise: [Alan N. Beard.2008]:
• Which methodology should be used? What are to be the criteria for acceptability?
• How to assess the risk and make a decision?
• What are to be the criteria for acceptability of risk? This is basically an ethical
decision, not a technical one, as such the criteria need to be generally acceptable
to the public.

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Some real examples

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Some real examples

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Some real examples

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Some real examples

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Some real examples

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Some real examples

Title Order of Probability


importance
Ignore or disregard cases of temporary loads
and transitory situations 87,5% Very High

Conservative design for service situations 75% High


Handling and management 62,5% High
Dynamics actions in transport 50.0% Moderate
Do not correctly shape the precast ring
50% Moderate
segment
Joints articulate weakest point the precast
50% Moderate
ring segment
Concrete curing process 37.50% Moderate

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Some real examples
Title Contingency measure
Ignore or disregard cases of Stop fabrication, redesign and implement the new design. In parallel a reparation process for
temporary loads and unsafe lining section and segments must be put in place
transitory situations
Concrete curing process If the concrete curing process is not enough to reach the required strength, then the contingency
measure is to wait more time during storage stage
Handling and management If this risk materialises, then the contingency measure is to prepare a new logistic plan and
implement it in order to avoid it happens again
Dynamics actions in If not considered dynamic actions take place, damage assessment of the segment already casted
transport must be performed and reparation or rejection defined. Also transportation plan must be revisited
and updated
Do not correctly shape the When the errors in the shape of the segment are relevant, the only advisable solution is to reject
precast ring segment them, as well as to assess any damage produced in the lining already constructed in order to define
reparations. In case the magnitude of this error is minor then a modification of the assembly process
by reducing applied thrust loads can be studied if feasible
Conservative design for In case the design is proved to be very conservative and there is enough technical substantiation,
service situations redesign can take place together with the request of relaxation if needed

Joints articulate weakest Failures in joints contingency plan relies in repairing them through special injections in the affected
point the precast ring area
segment

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Some real examples

Title Avoid Mitigate Transfer Accept


Ignore  or  disregard  cases  of  temporary  loads  and  X
  
transitory situations 
Conservative design for service situations X
Handling and management X X
Dynamics actions in transport X X
Do not correctly shape the precast ring segment X
Joints  articulate  weakest  point  the  precast  ring  X
  
segment 
Concrete curing process X
 

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Some real examples

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Risk Management
Educating XXIst century
Civil Engineers in Barcelona

AA VV

57