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Rainfall analysis for crop planning

in Ganjam district

Mintu Kumar Adak


Adm No : 01AS/14

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS


COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE
ORISSA UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND TECHNOLOGY
BHUBANESWAR – 751003, ODISHA
2016
Rainfall analysis for crop planning
in Ganjam district

A
Thesis submitted to
Orissa University of Agriculture and Technology
in Partial fulfillment of the Requirement
for the degree of
Master of Science in Agricultural Statistics

By
MINTU KUMAR ADAK
Adm. No .01AS/14

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS


COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE
ORISSA UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND TECHNOLOGY
BHUBANESWAR, ODISHA-751003
2016
ORISSA UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND TECHNOLOGY
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS
COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE
BHUBANESWAR-751003, ODISHA

Dr. A .K .PARIDA Bhubaneswar


Prof. & Head Date:
Department of Agricultural Statistics

CERTIFICATE-I

This is to certify that the thesis entitled “Rainfall analysis for crop
planning in Ganjam district” submitted in partial fulfilment of the
requirements for the award of the degree of Master of Science in Agriculture
(Agricultural Statistics) to the Orissa University of Agriculture and
Technology is a faithful record of bonafide and original research work carried
out by Mintu Kumar Adak under my guidance and supervision. No part of this
thesis has been submitted for any other degree or diploma.
It is further certified that the assistance and help received by him from
various sources during the course of investigation has been duly acknowledged.

CHAIRMAN
ADVISORY COMMITTEE
CERTIFICATE-II
This is to certify that the thesis entitled “Rainfall analysis for crop planning
in Ganjam district” submitted by Mintu Kumar Adak to the Orissa
University of Agriculture and Technology, Bhubaneswar in partial fulfilment of
the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Agriculture
(Agricultural Statistics) has been approved/disapproved by the students‟
advisory committee and the external examiner.

ADVISORY COMMITTEE:

CHAIRMAN: Dr. A. K. Parida


Professor & Head
Department of Agricultural Statistics
College of Agriculture,
OUAT, Bhubaneswar-751003

MEMBERS: 1. Dr. S. Pasupalak


Vice-Chancellor
OUAT, Bhubaneswar- 751003

2. Dr. S. Tripathy
Former Professor & Head
Department of Agricultural Economics
College of Agriculture,
OUAT, Bhubaneswar- 751003

EXTERNAL EXAMINER:

(Name & Designation)


ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This research would have not been a lot less easy without the help and support of
many people. Therefore, it is a great pleasure for me to acknowledge those who contributed
to the success of my M.sc (Ag.) study.

We express our gratitude and sincere thanks to Prof. Dr. Amulya Kumar Parida for his
guidance and constant encouragement and support during the course of my work. We truly
appreciate the value and his esteemed guidance and encouragement from beginning to the
end of the thesis, his knowledge and company at the time of crisis would be remembered
lifelong.
I am thankful to my co-guide Dr. Surendra Nath Pashupalak Sir for selecting the
objectives of my thesis and for his guidance and support. Again thankful to Dr. Amulya
Kumar Parida Sir for his guidance and blessings.

I am thankful to Manoranjan Sen Sir for his intime help and support. I am thankful to
Sugi Madam for her help, support and co-operation.

I am also thsankful to Sanju mausi, Saila mausi and Braja bhaina for their support

We also thank our friend Deepak who directly or indirectly helped us in our project work and
completion of this thesis.
Then I am offering my insole love and devotion to my mother for her all time support
and encouragement, where my father is my courage forever. I am thankful to my parents-in-
law for his help and support.

I am offering my love and thanks to my senior Balaram Mallick and Debasmita


Subhadarshini Mishra for their support, encouragement and help.

Last but not the least, I am very much thankful to my guide Dr. Amulya Kumar Parida
who not only guide me in completing my thesis in this outer world but also afforded me a lot
of indirect guidance in my inner world that made me came more closer to God.

Bhubaneswar
Date : Mintu Kumar Adak
CONTENTS

CHAPTER TITLE PAGE NO.

I INTRODUCTION 1-10

II REVIEW OF LITERATURES 11-26

III MATERIALS AND METHODS 27-32

IV RESULTS 33-52

V DISCUSSION 53-56

VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 57-59

REFERENCES i-vii
LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE PARTICULARS PAGE


NO. NO.

1.1 Odisha map of weekly rainfall (%) 3


departure from normal

1.2 Odisha map of Agro - climatic zones 5

1.3 Block map of Ganjam district 7

4.1 Annual rainfall trend analysis of Ganjam district 35


(1996 – 2015)

4.2 Annual rainy days trend analysis of Ganjam district 35


(1996 – 2015)

4.3 Mean monthly rainfall (mm) and CV of Ganjam 38


district (1996- 2015)

4.4 Mean weekly rainfall distribution of Ganjam district 42


(1996 – 2015)

4.5 Mean weekly rainy days distribution of Ganjam district 42


(1996 – 2015)
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE PARTICULARS PAGE
NO. NO.

1.1 District wise monthly normal rainfall 8

1.2 District wise monthly normal rainy days 9

4.1 Yearly rainfall distribution of undulating plain drought prone 34


region of Ganjam district
4.2 Mean seasonal rainfall (mm), rainy days and per cent of 36
contribution to annual rainfall of undulating plain drought prone
region of Ganjam district (1996-2015)
4.3 Monthly rainfall distribution of undulating plain drought prone 37
region of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)
4.4 Monthly rainy days distribution of undulating plain drought prone 39
region of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)
4.5 Weekly rainfall and rainy days distribution of undulating plain 40-41
drought prone region of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)
4.6 Estimation of normal, abnormal and drought months of undulating 44
plain drought prone region of Ganjam district (1996 -2015)
4.7 Monthly probability occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal 45
months
4.8 Probability occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal seasons 46

4.9 Initial and transitional probabilities of weekly rainfall 47-48

4.10 Estimation of consecutive dry and wet weeks of the region 48-49

4.11 Prediction of weekly rainfall at different levels of probabilities 51-52


ABBREVIATIONS USED

ACZ : Agro Climatic Zone

DM : Drought Month

NM : Normal Month

AM : Abnormal Month

SMW : Standard Meteorological Week

MW : Meteorological Week

CI : Confidence Interval
ABSTRACT

Of all the climatic factors, rainfall is of greatest concern to the farmers in rainfed agriculture.
The knowledge of amount and occurrences of rainfall is of paramount important for better crop
planning. Ganjam district was selected purposively to study the rainfall pattern for crop planning. The
daily rainfall data of Ganjam district for a period of 20 years (1996-2015) was used and analyzed to
estimate annual, seasonal, monthly and weekly rainfall characteristic along with the probability of
occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal rainfall over the study period. Again, dry and wet
weekly probability was computed by Markov chain model to find the dry and wet weeks. The
probability of receiving at least 10mm, 20mm, 30mm and 40mm rainfall in a week was computed for
predicting weekly dry and wet conditions by employing normal distributions of Ganjam district.
The mean annual rainfall was estimated as 1282 mm, out of which kharif (Monsoon), rabi
(Post monsoon), summer and winter seasons received an average rainfall of 868.58, 243.41, 135 and
34.12 mm, respectively. The month of August received highest rainfall (256.02 mm) and January the
lowest (11.08 mm). The analysis revealed that the monsoon starts effectively from 24th SMW (11 June
to 17th June) in Ganjam district and remained active up to 40th SMW (1st October to 7th October), The
expected good monsoon was observed for about 17 weeks (24th to 40th SMW). Thus short duration rice
(100 – 110 days duration) can easily be grown in the region with little fear of drought. Sowing of
kharif cereals like upland paddy, ragi, small millets, maize; pulses like arhar and black gram; oilseeds
like sesamum, groundnut and seedling nursery for paddy can be sown during 23rd and 24th SMW (4th –
17th June) and during 29th – 30 SMW (15th – 29th July) kharif paddy transplanting should be completed.
During 44th to 46th SMW (29th Oct. to 18th November) monsoon recedes as there was more than
10 mm rainfall per week at probability more than 50%. Rabi crops like green gram, black gram, field
pea, lathyrus, sesamum and groundnut should be sown by zero till utilising residual moisture after 43 rd
SMW (22nd – 28th October).
CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION

0
INTRODUCTION
Rainfall is the single most important factor in crop production programme
particularly under dry lands areas. Of all the climatic factors, rainfall is of greatest
concern to the farmers in rainfed agriculture. The variation of monsoonal and annual
rainfall in space and time are well known and this inter-annual variability of monsoonal
rainfall has considerable impact on agricultural production.
Agriculture is considered as the backbone of Indian economy. The agro climatic
zone of India represent a wide range of rainfall distribution, temperature, humidity,
topography, cropping and farming system. India is one of the monsoon-blessed countries
and the average annual rainfall of the country is 114 cm of which 70-80% is received in
the rainy season. There is wide variation in rainfall distribution over the meteorological
subdivisions in the country, which can be better interpreted from the highest and lowest
rainfall received in Cherapunji and in some parts of Rajasthan respectively.
Rainfall is the important element of Indian economy. Although the monsoons
effect most part of India, the amount of rainfall varies from heavy to scanty on different
parts. There is great regional and temporal variation in the distribution of rainfall. Over
80% of the annual rainfall is received in the four rainy months of June to September. The
average annual rainfall is about 125 cm, but it has great spatial variations. Cherapunji
receives the highest rainfall of 11777mm and Rajasthan receives the lowest rainfall of
313mm. Rai (et al.) 2014 conducted a study on climate change, variability and rainfall
probability for crop planning in few districts of central India.
Some of the rainfall condition is same in odisha as in India. Some places in
coastal region bears flood and in some other places severe drought occurs. The aim of
the research is to study the rainfall pattern of a particular area taken as a sample of
Odisha for crop planning.
Odisha is an agriculturally predominant state and it lies in a subtropical zone in
between parallels of 17o 48‟ to 23o 34‟ North latitude and the medians of 81 o 24‟ to 87o
29‟ East longitude. The state depends on rainfall for is agricultural production. The
distribution of rainfall is very much erratic and uneven so flood and droughts are
occurring frequently in different regions of the state. Thus, the agricultural production is
highly unstable. Even during monsoon season, the state suffers from simultaneous
problems of disposal of surplus water caused by heavy storms in some parts and water
deficit due to lack of adequate rainfall in other parts.

1
The normal rainfall of Ganjam is 1276.2 mm received in 64.2 rainy days
(Table1.1 and 1.2) out of region 847.2 mm rainfall is received with in 43.7 rainy days
June to September. Pre monsoon rainfall 101.1 mm in 6.9 rainy days is received during
April and May region is helpful for land preparation and post monsoon rainfall of 155.9
mm is received in 9.5 rainy days.

1.1 Climate of Odisha:


The climate of Odisha is distinctly related to the geography of Odisha. The weather
of Odisha can be classified under three heads namely, summer, monsoon and winter. The
state is also endowed with relatively short stints of the refreshing spring and the mellow
autumn.

According to the rainfall the weather can also be seasonally classified as the four
seasons prevailing in the state:
I Hot and Dry summer (March, April, May).
II Hot and Humid wet season (June, July, August, and September).
III Post Monsoon (October, November).
IV Winter (December, January, February).

1.2 Rainfall in Odisha:

The southwest monsoon announces its arrival in the state and departs by the
middle of October. Rainfall is the main source of water in Odisha that varies from 1200
millimetres to 1700 millimetres across the state. The average rainfall in Odisha is
measured as 1482 millimetres. Odisha receives about 78% of rainfall between the
months of June and September. Odisha receives the remaining 22% of the rainfall
throughout the year. The rains also play a pivotal role in agriculture, the principal source
of livelihood of the populace of Odisha.

1.3 Soil of Odisha and Physiographic:


According to Dr. G. C. Sahu and Antaryami Mishra our state is classified
physiographically as follows:
1. The northern plateau.
2. The central table land.
3. Eastern ghat.
4. Coastal plane.

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Figure 1.1: Odisha map of weekly rainfall (%) departure from normal (16.4.15 to
22.4.15)

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According to them soil of Odisha is classified as: Red soil, Mixed red and yellow
soil, Black soil, Lateritic soil, Deltatic alluvial soil, Coastal saline and alluvial soil,
Brown forest soil and Mixed red and black soil.

1.4 Rainfed area of Odisha :

Rainfed agriculture accounts for 70%, 62% and 69% for Kharif, Rabi and total
cropped area respectively. Cultivation of 57% of rice, 87% coarse cereals, 92% pulses,
85% oil seed, 45% vegetable, 55% spices and 75% tobacco depends on monsoon rain.
(Source –final report on National Agricultural Innovation Project, ICAR).

1.5 Agro-climatic zones of Odisha :

The state of Odisha has been divided into 10 agro-climatic zones based on the
basis of soil structure, humidity, elevation, topography, vegetation, rainfall and other
agro-climatic factors. They are as follows:

1. North-western plateau.
2. North-central plateau.
3. North eastern coastal plane.
4. East and south coastal plane.
5. North eastern ghat.
6. Eastern ghat high lands
7. South eastern ghat.
8. Western undulating lands.
9. Western central table land.
10. Mid central table land.

Saha and Rao (2008) conducted a study on rainfall variability study for crop
planning under rainfed production system in western Odisha. The main aim of their
study was to analyse the rainfall pattern and conclude various aspect that would be
helpful in crop planning in Western Odisha.

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Figure 1.2: Odisha map of Agro - climatic zones

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1.6 Topography of Odisha :

On the basis of homogeneity continuity and physiographical characteristics


Odisha has been broadly divided into four major topographical region.

1. The coastal plane in the east.


2. The middle mountains and high land region in central part.
3. The central plateaus.
4. The western rolling upland in the west.

AN OVERVIEW OF GANJAM DISTRICT

Located on the boarder of Andhra Pradesh, Ganjam District came into existence on
1st April 1936. Ganjam District is on 19.4 to 20.17 degree North Latitude and 84.7 to
85.12 degree East Longitude. It covers an area of 8070.60 sq km. The district is braodly
divided into two divisions, the Coastal plain area in the east and hill and table lands in
the west. The Eastern Ghats run along the western side of the District. The climate of
Ganjam is characterized by an equable temperature round the year, particularly in the
coastal regions. The District„s cold season from December to February is followed by
hot season from March to May. The District experiences normal annual rainfall of
1276.2 mms.

Basic information of Ganjam district

1. Agro climatic zone : North eastern ghat Odisha.


: East & south eastern costal plain.
2. Geographical area : 8206 Sq. Km (8,39,110 Hector)
3. Cultivated area : 4,06,000 Hector
4. Non-Cultivated Area : 89,000 Hector
5. Forest area : 266504.75 Hector

6. Agriculture land use:


(a) Cultivated area : 434000 Hector
(b) Paddy area : 252000 Hector
(c) Non paddy area : 182000 Hector

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Figure 1.3: Block map of Ganjam district

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Table 1.1: District wise monthly normal rainfall

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Table 1.2: District wise monthly normal rainy days

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7. No of blocks : 22
8. Village : 3212
9. Population : 3,529,031 (As per 2011 census)
(a) Male : 1,779,218
(b) Female : 1,749,813
10. Literacy rate : 71.88% ( As per 2011)
11. Crops : Paddy, Ground nut, Sugar cane, Oil seeds, Ragi, Mung,
Biri.

Source of data: District portal Ganjam district, government of Odisha

1.7 Aim and Scope of the Study:

The probability analysis of rainfall is a method to analyse and study the


distribution pattern of rainfall over the years of a place to evaluate the feasibility of crop
intensification. Effects have been made to study the rainfall pattern of Ganjam district of
Odisha by taking the daily rainfall data for the last 20 years (1996 – 2015) and to
interpret the results by fitting to various probability distributions.

For suitable and profitable crop planning, the most problematic district Ganjam
was taken under one of the most problematic sub agroclimatic zone. The scope of the
study is that it can provide information and guidelines for future studies and conclusions
can be drawn for crop planning in a similar way for the whole of Odisha.

1.8 Objective of the study:

1. To analyse the variability and pattern of rainfall – annual, monthly, seasonal and
weekly.
2. To assess the influence of rainfall on crop production risk under changing
climate.
3. To develop an appropriate model based on the rainfall data for suitable crop
planning.

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CHAPTER-2

REVIEW OF LITERATURES

11
REVIEW OF LITERATURES

In this chapter efforts have been made to study the research and findings on the
field of probability analysis of rainfall by eminent persons in this field. Thus, Review of
literature plays a vital role in providing information about the work done in the past
following various analytical procedures and study the strong and weak findings. The
interpretation of these findings provides valuable guidance in formulating the theoretical
framework of research.

This chapter deals with a detail and critical review of the research work of
eminent persons on rainfall characteristics using different approach. The review of
literature has been classified under five heads.

 Review of studies of rainfall on crop production risk under changing climate.


 Review of studies on use of different model based on the rainfall data for suitable
crop planning.
 Review of studies on rainfall characteristics using probability approach.
 Review of studies on rainfall analysis and crop planning.

2.1 Review of studies of rainfall on crop production risk under changing


climate.

Chiotti and Johnston (1995) conducted an study on extending the boundaries of


climate change research and reached on the conclusion that an approach which situates
farm-level decision making in relation to both broad structural (including biophysical)
and internal forces, provides for a greater understanding of the nexus between climate
change and farm adaptation.

Dinar et al. (1998) conducted a study on impact of climate change on Indian


agriculture and observed that farmers in developing countries currently adjust to their
local climate. He concluded that existing farms were only mildly climate sensitive
implying a substantial amount of adaptation.

Nakagawa et al. (2003) conducted an experiment on effects of climate change on


rice production and adaptive technologies. It has been found that model simulation under
various adaptive technologies indicates that the combination of advanced transplanting

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and the adoption of later-maturing cultivars may help to exploit the advantage of
elevated CO 2 for rice production in Japan, although this greatly depends on prefectures.

ChiChung et al. (2004) conducted an experiment on yield variability as


influenced by climate: a statistical investigation. It has been found that rainfall and
temperature increases are found to increase yield level and variability. On the other hand,
precipitation and temperature are individually found to have opposite effects on corn
yield levels and variability.

Dash et al. (2007) conducted a study on “Some Evidence of Climate Change in


Twentieth-century India”. Analysis of rainfall amount during different seasons indicate
decreasing tendency in the summer monsoon rainfall over Indian landmass and
increasing trend in the rainfall during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months.

Kalra et al. (2007) conducted a study on impacts of climate change on


agriculture. They reached in a conclusion that adaptation strategies through the adoption
of agronomic management options (such as altered date of sowing, scheduling of water
and nutrients) can sustain agricultural productivity under climate change.

Tuteja and Tuteja (2009) studied on food security and climate change in India.
This article examined food production, availability and possible effects of climate
change on crop yield and cereal production in India. They concluded that it is necessary
that farmers must be adequately guided by experts on soil and water analysis for
adapting the best diversified cropping system along with meticulous adaptation of
technology and judicious use of seeds, fertilizer; Pesticide, water and labor.
Padukone (2010) studied on climate change in India: forgotten threats, forgotten
opportunities. He explained that India‟s growth-inclined position on climate change
appears legitimate and with the climate change India would be the greatest loser. He
concluded that adaptation to inevitable environmental shift is necessary, political
adaptation including unity amongst the estranged South Asian neighbors is imperative to
manage the political and security oriented consequences of climate change.
Kattarkandi et al. (2010) conducted a study on “Simulating impacts, potential
adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India”. They concluded that
developing new cultivars with growth pattern in changed climate scenarios similar to
that of current varieties in present conditions could be an advantageous adaptation
strategy for minimizing the vulnerability of maize production in India.

13
Mller et al. (2011) studied on climate change risk for African agriculture. Despite
large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for
policy makers and research agendas. Agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to
be negatively affected by climate change. They concluded that existing cropping systems
and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand.

Geethalakshmi et al. (2011) conducted a study on Climate Change Impact


Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Sustain Rice Production in Cauvery Basin of
Tamil Nadu. . They Suggested that adaptation strategies include system of rice
intensification, using temperature tolerant cultivars and using green
manures/biofertilizers for economizing water and increasing the rice productivity under
warmer climate.

Sarker (2011) conducted a study on climate change and its risk reduction by
mangrove ecosystem in the coastal community of Bangladesh. He concluded that
mangrove is a source of livelihood and a measure to reduce risk of climate change.

Kumar et al. (2011) conducted an experiment on “Impact of Climate Change on


Crop Productivity in Western Ghats, Coastal and Northeastern Regions of India”. And it
has been concluded that adaptation strategies such as change in variety and altered
agronomy can, however, offset the impacts of climate change.
Pai et al. (2011) conducted a study on “District-wide drought climatology of the
southwest monsoon season over India based on standardized precipitation index (SPI)”.
They found that SPI is more suitable and more relevant than per cent of normal
precipitation(PNP) for calculating drought climatology over all districts. SPI showed
different trends for different districts.

Sindhu (2011) studied on Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture.


His study is primarily aimed at reviewing the impacts of climate change on Indian
agricultural sustainability and poverty where poverty and agriculture are both salient and
climate change is likely to reduce agricultural yields significantly. The study also throws
light on the nexus between agricultural productivity and poverty eradication.

Kaur (2011) studied on impact of climate change and cropping pattern on ground
water resources of Punjab. In his paper he analysed rainfall data of 37 year and analyzed
the climatic impact on ground water balance in the state as well as the rate of fall in

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water table. He outlined some important management strategies for the sustainability of
ground water resources vis-à-vis climate change in the state.
Miller (2013) studied on African lesion on climate change risk for agriculture. He
concluded that development strategies are urgently needed but they will need to consider
future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing
synergies between climate change adaption and development can be exploited.
Rao et al. (2013) studied on “Influence of Weather on the Fibre Yield of Mesta
(Hibiscus sabdariffa) in the North Coastal Zone of Andhra Pradesh, India”. They
concluded that step-wise regression showed that maximum variability in fiber yield and
was explained by maximum temperature which could be used to develop models to
predict yield at least one month in advance with acceptable accuracy. This prediction
could then be used as an input for crop planning and market intelligence.
Pandit et al. (2014) observed that Public risk perception indicates the way people
respond to the hazards including climate catastrophes. Public opinion largely shapes the
policy formulations by the governments. The present study was conducted in Ganjam
district of Odisha to gauze the awareness and perception of farmers regarding climate
change which is already manifesting itself in the region. The study indicated that
reasonably good percentage (65.17%) of farmers heard the term „climate change‟.
However, they hardly understand the proper meaning of climate change. Around 41% of
the farmers didn't have any idea about what causes climate change. However, farmers
had unanimous feeling that the climate is changing. They perceived that intensities of
day and night temperature, rainfall, humidity, cold and heat waves and frequency of
cyclones has changed over the years. Majority of the farmers experienced that the
cropping season and sowing time had been delayed because of late onset of monsoon.
Farmers may be encouraged to rear livestock as a measure of occupation diversification
to lessen the risk in times of climatic adversity.
Mondal et al. (2015) concluded climate change is a serious issue resulting in
global variation in the temperature and precipitation pattern. In tha study, changes in
rainfall trend in India for 141 years (1871–2011) and temperature trend for 107 years
(1901–2007) were analysed. The annual, seasonal and monthly changes in different
regions of India were investigated to see the climate change in different parts of the
country, and the net excess or deficit of rainfall and temperature in India was obtained.
This study gives the net impact of climate change in India which shows net excess of
temperature and net deficit of rainfall.
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2.2 Review of studies on use of different model based on the rainfall data for
suitable crop planning.

Chunale et al. (2003) studied on Dry spell probability by Markov chain model
and its application to crop planning in Kolhapur (M.S.). This study analyses the rainfall
behaviour and sequences of occurrence of dry and wet spells using the 1975-2001
weather data from Kolhapur (Maharashtra, India) and the Markov chain probability
model, and on that basis, proposes the contingent crop planning for Kolhapur region.

Rajeevan et al. (2004) introduced several new models for the long-range forecast
of the southwest monsoon rainfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has
been issuing long-range forecasts of the southwest monsoon rainfall since 1886. With
this, it has become possible to issue the long-range forecasts in two stages. On 16 April,
IMD issued the forecast for the 2003 southwest monsoon rainfall for the country as a
whole, giving its users an extra lead time of about 40 days. On 9 July, IMD issued a
forecast update and additional forecasts for three broad homogeneous regions of India. It
also gave a five-category probabilistic forecast. In view of its importance for agriculture,
for the first time, IMD also issued a forecast for July rainfall. The forecasts issued
operationally in 2003 using these new models have proved to be accurate.
Das et al. (2006) studied on Modelling Weekly Ranifall Using Gamma
Probablity Distribution and Markov Chain for Crop Planing in Sub Humid (dry) Climate
of Central Bihar. The study was conducted during 2000-03 to analyse standard
meteorological weekly rainfall data of Patna for 42 years (1960-200 I) using gamma
probability distribution, which has been identified as the best-fit model out of seven
competing distributions using Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test. The distribution
and amount of rainfall indicated that the transplanting of kharif rice has to be completed
during the standard meteorological week 26 (25 June- 1July) for maximum utilization of
rainwater of 330 mm and 465 mm during the standard meteorological weeks 26-39 at
70% and 60% probability levels respectively.

Reddy et al. (2008) studied on Markov Chain Model Probability of Dry, Wet
Weeks and Statistical Analysis of Weekly Rainfall for Agricultural Planning at
Bangalore. In this study Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell
distribution The data on onset and withdrawal rainy season indicated that the monsoon
starts effectively from 24th SMW (11 - 17th June) and remains active up to 45th SMW

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(5 - 11th November). During rainy season the probability of occurrence of wet week is
more than 35% except during 25th - 27th SMW and 44th - 48th SMW. During rainy
season the mean weekly rainfall is found to be more than 40 mm during 36th - 41st
SMW and found to be less than 20 mm during 20th SMW, 25th - 27th SMW and 44th -
48th SMW. The results through analysis have been used for agricultural planning at
Bangalore region.

Subash et al. (2009) studied on Markov Chain Approach - dry and Wet
Spell Rainfall Probabilities for Rice-wheat Planning. . In this study Markov chain model
has been employed to know the initial and conditional probability of having a dry or a
wet week and also the occurrence of consecutive dry or wet periods of 2 or 3 weeks for
selected stations. Based on the rainfall pattern and its distribution, different crop
management strategies as well as remedies are suggested to explore maximum rainfall
received during the season to maximize the production and minimize the existing gap
between the potential and actual production.

Kumar et al. (2012) studied on Statistical Models for Long-Range Forecasting of


Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India Using Step Wise Regression and Neural
Network.
In the paper a brief of the recent methods being followed for LRF that is 8-
parameter and 10-parameter power regression models used from 2003 to 2006 and new
statistical ensemble forecasting system are explained. The model equations are
developed by using the linear regression and neural network techniques based upon
training set of the 43 years of data from 1958 to 2000. It can be inferred that these
models have the potential to provide a prediction of ISMR, which would significantly
improve the operational forecast.
Dash (2012) studied on a research work titled as A Markov Chain Modelling of
Daily Precipitation Occurrences of Odisha. In the study, a stochastic daily Precipitation
generation model was adapted for the state of Odisha. The model simulates the sequence
of Precipitation occurrence using the method of transitional probability matrices, while
daily Precipitation amount was generated using a two parameter Gamma distribution.
First order Markov chains can adequately represent the Precipitation occurrences in all
the months. Four states are used for representing Precipitation in a wet day as a more
good fit can be obtained for the distribution representing the Precipitation amount in each
class.

17
Pai et al. (2014) worked on a research titled as Long Range Forecast on South
West Monsoon Rainfall using Artificial Neural Networks based on Clustering Approach.
The purpose of this study is to forecast Southwest Indian Monsoon rainfall based on sea
surface temperature, sea level pressure, humidity and zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds.
With the aforementioned parameters given as input to an Artificial Neural Network
(ANN), the rainfall within 10x10 grids of southwest Indian regions is predicted by means
of one of the most efficient clustering methods, namely the Kohonen Self-Organizing
Maps (SOM).
The ANN is trained with input parameters spanning for 36 years (1960-1995) and
tested and validated for a period of 9 years (1996-2004). It is further used to predict the
rainfall for 6 years (2005-2010). The results show reasonably good accuracy for the
summer monsoon periods June, July, August and September (JJAS) of the validation
years.

2.3 Rainfall characteristics (affecting climate) using probability approach.

Singh (1998) conducted a study on probability analysis of rainfall for crop


planning and watershed management in Sikkim. Rainfall data for the Tadong area of
East Sikkim, India, for a period of 18 years (1979-96) were used to calculate weekly
rainfall amounts as a basis for deciding the cropping systems and watershed management
practices for farmers and planners. He found that the average annual rainfall amount was
3075 mm.

Venkatesh (1998) studied on Rainfall studies of Bijapur. Weekly rainfall data for
1930-95 and monthly and annual data for 1901-95 for Bijapur, Karnataka, India, were
analysed. From the analysis he found that rainfall patterns were more stable in kharif
(June-August) than rabi (September-November), suggesting that there should be
intensification of agriculture during this season.

Chaudhary and Tomar (1999) studied on Agroclimatic analysis of stable rainfall


periods in undivided Bastar district of Chhattisgarh region of Madhya Pradesh, India.
Rainfall patterns were determined by analysis of 40 years rainfall data (1947-86) over 12
stations of Bastar district in Chhattisgarh region of Madhya Pradesh, India, and
relationships between rain and rice yield were investigated. They found that weekly

18
mean rainfall of 50 mm for lowlands and 75 mm for uplands with a coefficient of
variation of <100% was considered as the stable rainfall period for rice cultivation.

Mokashi et al. (2008) worked on Rain and Its Probability Based Forecast at
Solapur, India. Rainfall data for last 30 years (1974-2003) was collected at Dry Farming
Research Station, Solapur is used for this study. The initial wet probabilities data indicate
that > 20 mm rainfall is received in MW 24 (11-17 June) with 57 per cent assurance
indicating start of rainy season for kharif crops. The sowing of kharif crops viz.,
Pearlmillet, Sunflower, Pigeon pea are recommended during this period. The mid season
correction crop like sunflower is as recommended as contingent crop under late onset of
monsoon i.e. in the month of late July and early August. However, MW 39 (24-30 Sept)
with 75 percent assurance indicates maximum assurance of rainfall in rabi season. The
rabi crops like winter sorghum, safflower and gram are recommended during this period
on residual soil moisture.
Vaidya et al. (2008) conducted a study on Rainfall probability analysis for crop
planning in Gujarat state. The daily rainfall data of different districts of Gujarat, India,
were analysed to study the rainfall characteristics, onset and withdrawal of monsoon
rains and also the duration of getting assured rainfall. They concluded that the coefficient
of variation was found to increase with decrease in rainfall. The onset of monsoon rains
took place in 23 to 26 standard meteorological week while, withdrawal took place in 38
to 42 standard meteorological week.

Kumar (2008) conducted an experiment on Characterization and probability of


rainfall for crop planning in Chotanagpur Plateau and Long-term daily rainfall data
(1956-2005) in Ranchi, Jharkhand, India, were analysed. He concluded that the monsoon
rainfall varied from 705 to 1771 mm, with a mean value of 1139.5 mm. Simple
probability analysis revealed that 5 mm rain is expected from the 23rd to the 41st week.
Rain of 10, 20 and > 50 mm is expected to be greatest on the 24th-40th, 25th-40th and
26th-38th weeks, respectively.

Kumar et al. (2010) studied on “Analysis of long-term Rainfall Trends in India”.


In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall have been studied using
monthly data series of 135 years (1871-2005) for 30 sub-divisions (sub-regions) in India.
They concluded that in India, the monsoon months of June to September account for
more than 80% of the annual rainfall.

19
Sah and Ansari (2011) studied on Probability analysis of rainfall of fifty years
and crop planning for Palamau region of Jharkhand. Fifty years (1958-2007) of rainfall
data of ZRS, Chianki has been analyzed to understand the rainfall characteristics of
Palamau region in relation to its variability, distribution and probability of occurrence by
using coefficient of variation and probability for appropriate crop planning for the
region. They concluded that in this context, there is need to characterize new cropping
system and selection of suitable crops for the region in the changing scenario.

Auffhammer et al. (2012) studied on Climate Change, the Monsoon, and Rice
Yield in India. Their statistical analysis of state-level Indian data confirms that drought
and extreme rainfall negatively affected rice yield (harvest per hectare). Their recent
research indicates that monsoon rainfall became less frequent but more intense in India
during the latter half of the Twentieth Century. He concluded that Climate change has
evidently already negatively affected India‟s hundreds of millions of rice producers and
consumers.

Subhaiah and Prajapathi (2013) conducted a research work on Weekly Rainfall


Frequency Analysis for Junagadh of Gujarat State of India. SMEMAX transformation,
its modified versions and power transformation were applied to weekly rainfall records
tested previously for independence, homogeneity and completeness for their capability of
predicting rainfall amount at various probability levels. They found that Power
transformation is the most suitable among all three versions of SMEMAX
transformations in transforming the rainfall data to a normal distribution. C kcould play
an important role at low probability levels. Leaky law was found to be appropriate for
handling zero values in the rainfall series.

Goyal (2014) conducted a statistical Analysis on Long Term Trends of Rainfall


during 1901–2002 at Assam, India. This study presents an analysis based on the
precipitation variation in Assam, India over 102 years from 1901 to 2002. Precipitation
data from 21 stations have been collected. Time series of the Standardized Precipitation
Index (SPI) depict that near normal occurs in about 68 years out 102 years, and in
2.48 years out of 102 years there was an extreme wet. All these findings can help provide
rational regulatory and policy in relation to water resources to maintain the health of the
various ecosystems that make up Assam, India.

20
Bhelawe et al. (2015) conducted rainfall data of recent forty three years (1971-
2013) of Labhandi station, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidhyalaya Raipur, Chhattisgarh.
The data was analysed with the method of incomplete gamma probability. The data
revealed that the average rainfall of Labhandi station is 1202 mm spread over 61 rainy
days. Probability for receiving more than 100 mm of rainfall can be expected only at
25% probability level and that too in four weeks which is leading to the interpretation
that rainfed rice production is a challenging task in this region. It has been found that at
75 per cent assured probability level rainfall of more than 200 mms can be expected only
in July and August months and this rainfall is hardly sufficient for meeting the water
requirement in upland situations. However at 50 per cent probability which is equivalent
to average condition, cultivation of rice is possible under well water management
conditions. On seasonal basis rainfall at assured probability level of 75% is not sufficient
as the quantity is 795 mm rainfall in south-western monsoon season.

2.4 Review of studies on rainfall analysis and crop planning.

Chakraborty & Chakraborty (1990) observed that data on daily rainfall during
1976-85 were used for estimating assured rainfall pattern, conditional probability
analysis and water balance analysis for the Berhampore region in the Murshidabad
district. Water balance (actual evapotranspiration: potential evapotranspiration ratio)
analysis was made for different soil types in the region with available water capacity of
200, 250 and 300 mm/m soil depth. The use of the information obtained from these
analyses for crop planning in the region is discussed.

Saha and Biswal (2004) has done an experiment on aberrations in south-west


monsoon rainfall at Cuttack region of Orissa and planned suitable crop planning. The 60
years (1941-2000) daily rainfall data recorded in the Agrometeorology observatory of the
Central Rice Research Institute, Cuttack India were critically examined for establishing
long-term averages of monthly rainfall during the monsoon season and its temporal
variability by deploying appropriate statistical techniques. They found that the
variabilities in normal rainfall during crucial months of June (55%) and October (77%)
were relatively higher than the remaining monsoon months. The probabilities of
aberrations in seasonal (June to October) amount of rainfall were 68.4% with higher
proportion of below-normal (38.3%) than its above-normal rainfall (30.1%) during June

21
to October. At 25 and 50% probabilities, the stable quantum of rainfall was observed
during 24th-41st and 25th-38th standard meteorological week, respectively.

Subash and Das (2004) conducted an experiment on rainfall characteristics and


probability analysis for crop planning under rice-wheat system in sub-humid (dry)
climate. The weekly, monthly, seasonal and yearly rain characteristics, onset of effective
monsoon and its withdrawal were studied using daily rain data of 42 years (1960-2001)
recorded at the Agricultural Research Institute, Patna, Bihar, India. From their research
they found that the rain period lies between SM week 27 (July 2-8) and SM week 34
(August 20-26). During this period, approximately 20 mm rain per week at 70%
probability level is assured. The mean length of effective monsoon period of 90 days
suggested that the rice cultivars with duration of 110-120 days can be considered suitable
under rainfed scenario of Patna. Wherever irrigation facilities are available, rice nursery
should be raised during the third week of May, so that transplanting can be conducted
with the onset of effective monsoon. Subsequently, the timely sowing of wheat during
the second to third week of November could be possible after harvesting of rice to ensure
proper germination.

Jat et al. (2005) studied on Analysis of Weekly Rainfall for Crop Planning in
Udaipur Region. They used incomplete gamma distribution to predict the minimum
assured rainfall at different probability of excedence in all weeks of the whole year.
Their study revealed that chances of drought are more at critical stages of maize and
there is a scope for in-situ moisture conservation and runoff collection in tanks for
supplemental irrigation.

Bhakar et al. (2007) conducted a study on Probability analysis of rainfall for crop
planning in Arjia, Bhilwara. The weekly rainfall data of Arjia for 45 years (1960-2004)
was analysed for crop planning to increase production. The weekly rainfall series was
analysed employing Weibull's method for computation of weekly probable exceedence
of rainfall at 20, 50 and 80% probability level. They found the annual rainfall at different
probability levels (20, 50 and 80%) was 1168.5 mm, 346.6 mm and 13.3 mm,
respectively and the average expected weekly rainfall of contributing events at 20, 50
and 80% probability of exceedence was 1874.3, 1057.2 and 391.4.3 mm, respectively.

Singh et al. (2007) conducted a study on Rainfall characteristic analysis and crop
planning of Sabour region of Bihar. Daily rainfall data for 30 years (1972 to 2001) of

22
Sabour, Bihar was analysed for the probability and variability. The mean rainfall,
standard deviation and coefficient of variation for annual, seasonal and weekly periods
were worked out for crop planning. From their experiment they found that there were
about 13% drought, 10% excess rainfall and 77% normal years. The annual rainfall of
721, 937, 1205 and 1398 mm were expected with 90, 75, 50 and 25% probability,
respectively. The probability of weekly rainfall of 30 mm was more than 50% during
25th to 42nd meteorological weeks. So they suggested rainfall may be utilized for
growing rainy season crops viz. maize, cowpea, pigeonpea, groundnut, blackgram and
direct sowing of rice etc. These crops may be harvested within September and residual
moisture in medium and low land soil can be utilized for growing rabi crops under
rainfed conditions.

Kothari et al. (2008) conducted an experiment on a modified approach for


determination of onset and withdrawal of monsoon. Morris and Zandstra method for
onset was compared with observed values for a period of 20 years and that revealed a
mismatch in the Bhilwara region, Rajasthan, India, in 40% of the years studied. The
criteria for rainfall accumulation for both onset and withdrawal was modified in such a
way that the determined and observed onset of monsoon showed a significant match.

Sheoran et al. (2008) conducted a study on Rainfall analysis and crop planning in
lower Shiwalik foothills of Punjab. Daily rainfall data of 21 years (1984-2004) recorded
at RRSKA, Ballowal Saunkhri, District Nawanshahr, Punjab, India, was examined for
long term averages of annual, seasonal, monthly and weekly rainfall and its temporal
variability. Coefficient of variation of 27.1% indicated that the annual rainfall was more
or less stable over the years. The season-wise per cent contribution to annual rainfall
was 7.2, 13.2 and 79.6% of summer, rabi and kharif seasons, respectively. The normal
onset of rainy season was observed as 26th SMW with CV of 5.2 per cent. They
concluded that there was an ample scope for rain water harvesting from July to
September, which can be utilized as crop saving irrigation as well as pre-sowing
irrigation for succeeding rabi crops, which were generally sown on residual soil
moisture.

Singh (2008) conducted a study on Short duration rainfall analysis for effective
crop planning in rainfed agriculture. Statistical analysis of rainfall provides a better scope
for planning of cultivation of agricultural crop in advance. Rabi crop is found to be under

23
moisture stress under rainfed condition and pre-sowing irrigation is essential for good
crop establishment. Under high and medium category of land, besides short duration
paddy cultivar, early vegetable crops and elephant footyam [Amorphophallus] could be
effectively cultivated economically and the land can be spared for upcoming rabi crop in
order to utilize the moisture availability during the 43rd and 44th weeks.

Bhargava et al. (2010) studied on Rainfall Variability and Probability Pattern for
Crop Planning of roorkee Region (uttrakhand) of India. Daily rainfall data of 30 years
(1979-2008) of Agro meteorological Observatory, Department of WRD&M, IIT,
Roorkee, and Uttrakhand has been analyzed for the probability and variability to evolve
rainfall based cropping system with minimum risk. The mean rainfall, standard
deviation, coefficient of variation for annual, seasonal, monthly and weekly periods were
worked out. From their research they found that July was the wettest month (272.4 mm)
followed by August (271.4 mm). November was the least rainfall (6.0 mm) contributing
month. They suggested Sowing of kharif crop from 2nd week of June month. The July
month is regarded suitable for transplanting of rice crop in Roorkee region.

Solanki and Dashora (2010) studied on Rainfall analysis for crop planning in
Udaipur region of Rajasthan. Rainfall data of 36 years (1971-2006) of Udaipur were
statistically analyzed. Normal, abnormal and drought months and years and their
probabilities were computed. They concluded that during the rabi season, about 74% of
months were drought and showed that if irrigation facilities were not available, there
would be crop failure under rainfed condition.

Chand et al. (2011) studied on Analysis of rainfall for crop planning in Jhansi
district of Bundelkhand zone of Uttar Pradesh. The historical rainfall data for the period
of 34 years (1975-2008) of Jhansi in Bundelkhand agro climatic zone of U.P. were
analyzed to know weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual probabilities at different levels
of rainfall for suitable crop planning. From their research they found that the maximum
amount of rainfall is received during August (286.0 mm) and minimum in April (3.1
mm) month. They suggested that the Kharif season crops and their varieties may be
chosen with the growing period to avoid moisture stress as well as In-situ moisture
conservation practices like mulching, use of anti-transpirants, control of weeds, adequate
plant stands should be adopted to mitigate the effect of dry spell during critical crop
growth stages.

24
Subash et al. (2011) studied and experimented on Integrating Rainfall
Probability and Moisture Availability Index for Crop Planning of Kharif Rice (oryza
Sativa) in Eastern Indo-gangetic Basin. They used markov chain model and gamma
distribution in their research work. . Weekly moisture availability index (MAI) was
computed for 15 stations during the crop period, i e 18th (SMW) to 44th SMW to
explore the weekly water availability (WA) and water demand (WD) of the area.

Bhadoria et al. (2013) studied on Rainfall Probability Analysis


and Crop Planning for Chambal Region of Madhya Pradesh. Daily rainfall data of 29
years (1981–2009) recorded at RVSKVV, Zonal Agricultural Research Station Morena,
Madhya Pradesh was examined for long term averages of annual, seasonal, monthly, and
weekly rainfall and its temporal variability. Coefficient of variation of 27.1 percent
indicated that the annual rainfall was more or less stable over the years. Within the rainy
season, August was the highest rainfall contributing month (33.4%) followed by July
(28.9%). From their study they concluded that there is an ample Scope for rain water
harvesting from July to September which can be utilized as crop saving irrigation as well
as pre-sowing irrigation for succeeding rabi crops which are generally sown on residual
soil moisture.

Barnwal and Kotani (2013) conducted a research on Climatic Impacts across


Agricultural Crop Yield Distributions: An Application of Quartile Regression on Rice
Crops in Andhra Pradesh, India. In their work they characterized the impacts on crop
yield distributions with a non-parametric approach. They examined that the case of rice
yield in Andhra Pradesh, India being, an important state producing rice as a main crop
reported to be vulnerable to climate change. Employing 34 years of data, they applied
quartile regressions to untangle the climatic impacts across the quartiles of rice yield,
finding three main results. . First, substantial heterogeneity in the impacts of climatic
variables can be found across the yield distribution. Second, the direction of the climatic
impacts on rice yield highly depends on agro-climatic zones. Third, seasonal climatic
impacts on rice yield are significant.

Subash (2014) concluded that monthly, seasonal and yearly rainfall characteristics,
frequency of occurrence of 10 days or more consecutive dry spells during monsoon
season and their influence on rice productivity were investigated using daily rainfall data
for 49 years (1960–2008) recorded at Agricultural Research Institute, Patna, Bihar. The

25
results revealed that monsoon season receives 84.4% (959.5 mm) of the annual rainfall
(1136.8 mm) followed by 7.9% (89.6 mm) during post-monsoon season. The coefficient
of variation of annual rainfall was recorded as 26% and the monthly values ranged from
43.2% (August) to 210.9% (December). The data on rice productivity was fitted into
different models in curve fit program and it was observed that R2 value was higher for
10th degree polynomial fit. The scattering of data points from the trend line (10 th
degree
polynomial curve) indicated higher year-to-year variability. During the study period, 10
days or more consecutive dry spells occurred in four years (1966, 1982, 2004 and 2005)
during July.

Swain et al. (2015) concluded that the climatic variability for an area is referred to
the long term change in rainfall, temperature, humidity, evaporation, wind speed and
other meteorological parameters. Quantification of climate change is necessary in order
to detect the change that has already occurred and this will be further helpful to make
prediction or forecast for future. This will also lead to a better preparedness for natural
disasters. This article presents a trend analysis of monthly rainfall data for Raipur
district, Chhattisgarh for the period of 102 years that is from 1901 to 2002. The results
reveal a significant decrease for the months of Southwest monsoon i.e. June, July,
August and September, thereby inferring for a consequent decrease in annual rainfall.

Mishra (2015) Assessed climate risk and climate change using rainfall data for crop
planning in Odisha. Daily rainfall data of 20 years (1995-2014) of undulating plain
drought prone region of Bolangir district were analyzed for determining annual,
seasonal, monthly and weekly rainfall characteristic along with the probability of
occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal rainfall over the study period.

Mandal et al. (2015) observed that rainfed agriculture plays and will continue to
play a dominant role in providing food and livelihoods for an increasing world
population. Rainfall analyses are helpful for proper crop planning under changing
environment in any region. Therefore, in this paper, an attempt has been made to analyse
16 years of rainfall (1995–2010) at the Daspalla region in Odisha, eastern India for
prediction using six probability distribution functions, forecasting the probable date of
onset and withdrawal of monsoon, occurrence of dry spells by using Markov chain
model and finally crop planning for the region. For prediction of monsoon and post-

26
monsoon rainfall, log Pearson type III and Gumbel distribution were the best-fit
probability distribution functions.
Tao Li et al. (2015) concluded that rice production is threatened by climate
change and the productivity of rainfed rice is increasingly challenged. A better
understanding of the future trends of rice production associated with climate change is
important for improving food security. Rice production under irrigated and rainfed
conditions was simulated using the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Simulated rice yield
representing crop and environment interaction was used to evaluate the drought impact
of climate change on rainfed rice in South Asia. If rainfed rice system was applied in all
current rice cultivating areas in South Asia, drought stress could result to yield losses of
more than 80 in 22 %, but crop failure was lower than 40 in 73 % of the areas under mild
and severe SRES A1B and A2. Appropriate adjustment of sowing season is a major
adaptation strategy for rainfed rice production in South Asia to benefit from climate
change.

27
CHAPTER-3

MATERIALS & METHODS

28
MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1 SOURCE OF DATA

Daily rainfall data of recent 20 years (1996-2015) were collected from Special
Relief Commissioner Office, Rajeev Bhaban, Bhubaneswar, Odisha.

3.2 METHODS

The statistical methods used in the study are explained in the following three
heads:

3.2.1 Study of rainfall characteristics of the region

3.2.2 Estimation of initial and transitional probabilities of occurrence of dry and


wet weeks of the region in study using Markov probability model

3.2.3 Prediction of meteorological weekly rainfall at given level of probabilities


by using Normal distribution in order to evolve a suitable cropping pattern
for the region

3.2.1 Study of Rainfall Characteristics of the region

First of all the collected daily rainfall data were aggregated to get the
corresponding weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual totals.
Trend analysis:
Trend analysis is the practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a
pattern or trend, in the data. In some fields of study, the term “trend analysis” has more
formally defined meanings. Trend analysis is often used to predict future events. The
trend was observed by plotting the annual rainfall and rainy days against the years in MS
Excel graph facility.
Descriptive statistics:
The descriptive statistics such as Mean, Standard Deviation (S.D.) and
Coefficient of Variance (C.V.) for weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual period were
calculated using the formulae as follows:
̅= ∑ , σ= C.V. = ̅X100

Confidence interval at 95% (CI) = t5% ×SE


29
Where X is the weekly/monthly/seasonal/annual rainfall and n is the no. of
weeks/months/seasons/year.

Determination of Drought, Normal and Abnormal months:

The drought, normal and abnormal months were computed as:

If ̅ is the mean monthly rainfall, then a month receiving rainfall less than is
defined as a drought month, in between and as normal and more than as
abnormal months.

̅
Where = and =2̅

Calculation of probability occurrence of Drought, Normal and Abnormal months:

If , and (i = 1,2,……..12) are the number of drought, normal and


abnormal months out of total number of Drought (D), Normal (N) and Abnormal (A)
months during the period of 20 years ( 1996– 2015), then the estimated probability
values of occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal months were computed as :

P( ) = /D

P( ) = /N

P( ) = /N

Where, D = Drought, N = Normal and A = Abnormal

Calculation of Drought, Normal and Abnormal years:

If ̅ is the mean annual rainfall then a year is said to be drought, normal and
abnormal year as it receives rainfall less than ( ̅ - s), within the interval of [( ̅ - s), ( ̅ +
s) ] and above ( ̅ + s) respectively, where „s‟ is the standard deviation of yearly rainfall
data under study.

3.2.2 Estimation of initial and transitional probabilities of occurrence of dry and


wet weeks by using Markov probability model

The procedure of Markov probability model was employed to compute the


probabilities of dry and or wet weeks (Subash et al., 2009) as:

30
(a) Wet and dry week

The week is considered wet if it receives 20 mm or more rainfall, otherwise a dry


week.

(b) Initial Probability

According to Markov probability model the initial probability is the probability


that a particular week of the year is dry or wet under the assumption that the weather of
previous week (dry or wet) is not taken into consideration.

The initial probability of a week being dry is defined as

P (d) = F (d) / n

Where P (d) = probability of a week being dry

F (d) = Frequency of dry week (e.g. for week 1 how many weeks are dry
among the total number of years)

And n = total number of years of data being used.

Accordingly the initial probability of week being wet is given as

P (w) = F (w) / n

Where P (w) = probability of the week being wet

F (w) = Frequency of wet week

And n = total number of years of data being used

(c) Transitional probability

A transitional probability is the probability that a particular week of the year is


dry or wet under the assumption that, the weather of the previous week (dry or wet) is
taken into consideration. It indicates the probability of changes in weather from one
week to the next week.

The transitional probability of a week being dry preceded by another dry week is
given by

P (dd) = F (dd) / n

31
Where P (dd) = probability of week being dry preceded by another dry week

F (dd) = Frequency of dry week preceded by another dry week

and n = total number of years of data being used.

The consecutive dry and wet probabilities are computed as follows.

P (2D) = P(dw1) x P (ddw2)

P (3d) = P (dw1) x P (ddw2) x P (ddw3)

Where P (2D) = Probability of 2 consecutive dry weeks

P (dw1) = probability of first week being dry

And P (ddw2) = probability of the second consecutive week is dry with the
preceding week being dry

P (3D) = Probability of three consecutive weeks being dry

P (ddw3) = Probability of the third week is dry with the two preceding weeks
being dry

In a similar manner, transitional probability of a week being wet preceded by


another wet week is, P (ww); probability of dry week preceded by wet week is, P (d/w);
probability of wet week preceded by dry week is, P (w/d); probability of two
consecutive wet weeks, P (2W) and probability of three consecutive wet weeks, P(3W)
are computed accordingly.

(d) Markov chain model

The model assumes that the transitional probability for a given week depends on
the weather (dry or wet) of its previous week. Under such model the following relatios
hold :

P( ) = 1─P( )

P( / ) = 1─P( / )

( ) ( ) ( )
P( / ) = ( )

32
P( / ) = 1─ P( / )

Where P ( / ) is the transitional probability that week is dry given that


( ) week is wet and the other definitions follow likewise.

It is important to notice and know that only the initial probability that the
week is dry, P ( ) and the transitional probability of week that it is dry provided the
previous week is dry , P ( / ), need to be calculated from the original data and the
other probabilities are easily obtained by substitution.

3.2.3 Prediction of weekly rainfall at given level of probabilities by using Normal


distribution in order to evolve a suitable cropping pattern for the region

In this section of methodology the weekly probabilities of getting at least 10 mm,


20mm, 30 mm and 40 mm rainfall was predicted by using normal distribution with an
assumption that the weekly (meteorological weeks ) rainfall follows Normal distribution.

Suppose X be the amount of weekly rainfall during a period of n years follows


normal distribution with mean , µ and variance σ i.e. X N ( µ ; σ ), then the
probability density function ( p.d.f. ) of X is given by

( )
f (X, µ, σ ) = (1/σ )

And the standard Normal variate, Z = also follows Normal distribution whose p.d.f.
σ

is given by

f(Z) = ( ) -

The weekly probability (percent) of getting at least 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm of


rainfall in a week was calculated as follows:

33
Calculation of Normal deviate (Z) by using formula, Z =

Where, X = Given observation of rainfall (i.e. the required amount of rainfall


10, 20, 30 and 40 mm)

µ = mean weekly rainfall (that we have calculated)

σ = standard deviation of weekly rainfall (calculated)

The table value of (1+ ) corresponding to the value of normal deviate (Z) was

computed. As the table value of (1+ ) of normal deviate differed by 0.1, hence values

of the fraction for intermediate values of normal deviate were obtained by interpolation.

Probability (percent) = * ( )+ 100, when X is more

than µ. For cases when X is less than µ, the probability was calculated as ; table value of

( ) 100.

Note: it is very much easy to calculate Z for each probability (10, 20, 30 and 40)
against each µ. Then we can obtain the value of each Z in Excel (Formulas
). Then (1- value of Z) is to be computed. By
multiplying the obtained value (1- value of Z) with 100 we can get our required
probabilities (percent) of getting 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm rainfall in weeks.

34
CHAPTER-4

RESULTS

35
RESULTS

The results of this study are presented in this chapter under the following broad
headings keeping in view the objectives of the study.

1.1 To analyse the variability and pattern of rainfall – annual, monthly, seasonal and
weekly.
4.2 To assess the influence of rainfall on crop production risk under changing
climate.
4.3 To develop an appropriate model based on the rainfall data for suitable crop
planning.

4.1 To analyse the variability and pattern of rainfall – annual, monthly, seasonal
and weekly.

4.1.1 Estimation of Annual, Seasonal, Monthly and Weekly Rainfall statistics

The amount of rainfall and its distribution pattern is very much important for
each and every farmer, both for deciding the cropping pattern and for irrigation schedule.
Again the estimate amount of rainfall may be used to engineer for designing soil
conservation and irrigation structure for flood control. For the above use the collected
daily rainfall data of 20 years (1996-2015) were analysed to give the estimated amount
of annual, seasonal, monthly and weekly rainfall.

ANNUAL RAINFALL

The mean annual rainfall of the region was found (Table 4.1) to be 1282 mm with
an average of 92.75 rainy days during the study years. Among the analyzed 20 years, it
was found that 13 years were normal, 5 drought and 2 abnormal. Highest rainfall of
1972.3 mm with 112 rainy days occurred in 2013 and it was 53% more than normal. The
lowest rainfall of 876.3 mm with 79 rainy days occurred in 1996 and it was 31% less
than normal. The distribution of rainfall was found within the range of 77 – 120 days.
The annual rainfall trend was found to be of little variation (Figure 4.1) from 1999 to
2011 but sudden increase thereafter. The trend in rainy days showed more fluctuation
(Figure 4.2).

36
Table 4.1: Yearly rainfall distribution of undulating plain drought prone region of
Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)

Rainy
Year Rainfall CI (95%) Days Drought/Normal/Abnormal
823.1 – 929.4
1996 876.3 79 Drought
1131.7 – 1289.8
1997 1210.8 89 Normal
1340.6 – 1457.1
1998 1398.9 120 Normal
1273 – 1439.5
1999 1356.3 100 Normal
950.9 – 1077
2000 1014 91 Drought
1308.8 – 1444.3
2001 1376.6 113 Normal
899.1 – 1003.8
2002 951.5 81 Drought
1355.9 – 1577
2003 1466.5 93 Normal
922.2 – 1036.5
2004 979.4 92 Drought
1188.1 – 1355.4
2005 1271.8 98 Normal
1390.7 – 1577.2
2006 1484 91 Normal
1230.3 – 1410.2
2007 1320.3 82 Normal
1087.9 – 1235.8
2008 1161.9 87 Normal
1131.2 – 1304.5
2009 1217.9 77 Normal
1416.9 – 1551.3
2010 1484.1 85 Normal
855.3 – 973.4
2011 914.4 79 Drought
1152.7 – 1288
2012 1220.4 101 Normal
1816.7 – 2127.9
2013 1972.3 112 Abnormal
1316.7 – 1484.3
2014 1400.5 90 Normal
1460.5 – 1658.9
2015 1559.7 95 Abnormal
Mean 1282 92.75

37
Figure 4.1: Annual rainfall trend analysis of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)

Rainfall
2500

2000
y = 18.415x + 1088.5
R² = 0.1718
Mean rainfall

1500

1000
RAINFALL

500 Linear (RAINFALL)

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
years

Figure 4.2: Annual rainy days trend analysis of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)

Rainydays
140

120 y = -0.1992x + 492.34


R² = 0.0099
100
total rainydays

80

60 rainydays
Linear (rainydays)
40

20

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
years

38
SEASONAL RAINFALL

Table 4.2: Mean seasonal rainfall (mm), rainy days and percent contribution to
annual rainfall of undulating plain drought prone region of Ganjam
district (1996 – 2015)

Rainfall Rainy days


Season
Contribution Contribution
Amount(mm) C.V. No. C.V.
(%) (%)

SUMMER 135 10.54 96.69 10.8 11.67 85.98

MONSOON 868.58 67.80 39.69 66 71.33 24.75

POST
243.41 19.00 91.52 12.95 14.00 91.47
MONSOON

WINTER 34.12 2.66 119.93 2.78 3.00 118.83

TOTAL 1282 100.00 86.96 92.53 100.00 80.25

The daily rainfall data of 20 years were divided into 4 seasons as Summer,
Monsoon, Post monsoon and Winter. March, April and May are Summer months, June,
July, August and September are monsoon months, October and November are post
monsoon months and December, January and February are winter months.

The analysis of mean seasonal rainfall (Table 4.2) revealed that 868.58 mm
rainfall occurred in monsoon season. The rainfall amount found to be 243.41, 135 in post
monsoon and summer respectively. And in winter it was found to be the lowest rainfall
of 34.12 mm. The percentage contribution of the seasonal rainfall to the total rainfall was
in the following descending order, 67.80% in monsoon, 19.00% in post monsoon,
10.54% in summer and 2.66% in winter. The seasonal co-efficient of variation (CV)
found lowest in monsoon (39.69) indicating that rainfall was most reliable during
monsoon. The variability of rainfall was the lowest in monsoon compared to other
seasons. In monsoon August contribution was highest followed by July then September
and June. The highest % of number of rainy days was observed in monsoon (66%)
followed by summer (11%), post monsoon (13%) and winter (3%).

39
MONTHLY RAINFALL

Table 4.3: Monthly rainfall distribution of undulating plain drought prone region
of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)

Total Mean
Months Rainfall Rainfall Contribution S.D. C.V.
(mm) (mm)
221.6 11.08 0.86 18.01 162.54
January
241.6 12.08 0.94 19.50 161.43
February
366.7 18.34 1.43 24.18 131.86
March
1070.3 53.52 4.17 109.71 205.01
April
1263 63.15 4.93 50.91 80.62
May
3367.3 168.37 13.13 82.00 48.70
June
4568.5 228.43 17.82 95.16 41.66
July
5120.4 256.02 19.97 74.21 28.98
August
4315.4 215.77 16.83 93.83 43.49
September
3869.9 193.50 15.09 202.36 104.58
October
998.3 49.92 3.89 73.62 147.48
November
234.6 11.73 0.92 25.37 216.31
December

The significance for monthly rainfall trend (Figure 4.3) was found for June, July,
August and September. After May, there was a sudden rise in rainfall amount which
increased linearly from June to July and thereafter it started decreasing and not
significant for other months.

40
Figure 4.3: Mean monthly rainfall (mm) and CV of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)

MEAN RAINFALL C.V.

300.00

250.00

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Months

41
Table 4.4 : Monthly rainy days distribution of undulating plain drought prone
region of Ganjam district (1996-2015)

Total no of Average no of
Months Contribution S.D. C.V.
rainy days rainy days
18 0.9 0.97 1.67 186.27
January
26 1.3 1.40 2.08 160.49
February
47 2.35 2.53 3.31 140.92
March
68 3.4 3.66 2.90 85.48
April
101 5.05 5.44 2.81 55.69
May
262 13.1 14.12 3.85 29.41
June
346 17.3 18.65 4.09 23.64
July
372 18.6 20.05 2.63 14.19
August
340 17 18.32 3.66 21.58
September
207 10.35 11.15 6.02 58.20
October
52 2.6 2.80 3.01 115.94
November
16 0.8 0.86 1.46 182.60
December

The data on mean monthly rainfall (Table 4.3) revealed that August was the
highest (256.02 mm) rainfall contributing month, followed by July (228.43 mm). The
least rainfall amount of 11.73 mm was contributed by December. It was found from the
table that after May there was a sudden rise in rainfall amount, which increased linearly
from June to July and thereafter it started decreasing. But after September the rainfall
was observed to be reducing drastically confining the rainy season between June to
September. The coefficient of variation due to monthly rainfall ranged from 25.37%
(lowest) to 216.31% (highest). June, July, August and September were the most reliable
months as they showed CV values of 48.70, 41.66, 28.98 and 43.49 respectively. Table
4.4 revealed that CV values 29.41, 23.64, 14.19, and 21.58 respectively. The CV value
of November, December, January and February were much higher. The overall rain was
found to be inadequate having maximum uncertainty in the month of Dec, Jan, Feb and
March. The percent rainy days followed similar trends as that of rainfall.

42
WEEKLY RAINFALL

Mean SMW rainfall (Table 4.5) showed that from 23 SMW onwards the rainfall
was recorded within the range of 23.70 mm to 73.82 mm per SMW and continued upto
44 SMW. 35 SMW had highest rain of 73.82 mm and 48 SMW had the lowest rainfall of
0.07 mm. The data also indicated that out of 52 meteorological weeks the CV recorded in
11 meteorological weeks are within 100 and distributed from July to September.

Table 4.5: Weekly rainfall and rain ydays distribution of undulating plain drought
prone region of Ganjam district during (1996-2015)

Rainfall (mm) Rainy days(mm)


SMW
Mean Standard Coefficient Mean Standard Coefficient
Deviation of variance Deviation of variance
1
2.56 9.03 353.36 0.37 1.30 353.97
2
4.59 13.64 297.47 0.67 1.93 288.31
3 0.77 2.07 268.55 0.11 0.30 266.14
4
1.82 4.70 258.28 0.27 0.67 253.36
5
2.49 5.40 217.01 0.51 0.98 191.22
6
3.82 9.53 249.71 0.48 1.34 281.16
7 4.10 9.61 234.66 0.54 1.35 250.43
8
2.45 5.06 206.55 0.35 0.72 205.36
9
2.62 6.34 241.77 0.42 0.90 214.40
10
3.96 7.56 191.25 0.67 1.11 167.36
11
5.67 14.17 249.95 0.82 2.01 245.08
12
3.29 6.51 197.93 0.44 0.84 191.75
13
7.86 15.78 200.77 1.42 2.49 175.30
14 5.39 6.92 128.36 0.78 0.98 126.35
15
5.15 6.20 120.51 0.72 0.88 122.39
16
7.14 11.45 160.39 1.04 1.62 155.79
17
18.55 40.71 219.47 2.04 2.51 123.26
18 6.43 6.78 105.37 1.03 0.92 89.24
19
9.21 11.15 121.10 1.23 1.60 130.45
20
14.11 15.81 112.11 1.98 2.28 115.22

43
Table 4.5: continued
21
21.14 30.49 144.24 2.77 4.33 156.37
22
13.05 16.64 127.55 1.74 2.39 137.18
23
23.70 16.68 70.41 3.24 2.30 70.82
24 46.20 42.52 92.03 6.59 6.01 91.18
25
48.97 43.32 88.46 6.81 6.28 92.13
26
46.21 36.46 78.90 6.23 4.87 78.20
27
54.15 57.09 105.45 7.85 8.06 102.58
28
47.64 53.92 113.19 7.01 7.60 108.46
29
56.39 37.26 66.09 8.25 5.39 65.34
30
71.61 103.26 144.20 6.23 3.70 59.32
31
56.60 32.21 56.90 7.96 4.53 56.94
32
55.51 51.81 93.33 8.61 7.65 88.90
33
47.46 25.85 54.47 6.69 4.02 60.07
34
56.84 35.76 62.91 8.12 5.18 63.82
35
73.82 71.56 96.94 8.85 5.49 62.01
36
59.43 38.65 65.04 7.94 4.34 54.69
37
52.01 43.66 83.95 6.75 5.85 86.66
38
53.80 39.62 73.66 6.58 5.42 82.32
39 40.46 35.50 87.75 5.74 5.09 88.60
40
58.30 68.41 117.36 8.08 9.17 113.42
41
45.29 65.61 144.86 7.13 9.16 128.44
42 40.04 56.19 140.34 5.64 8.07 142.96
43
41.79 111.74 267.38 5.92 15.96 269.44
44
32.65 60.44 185.11 5.27 9.24 175.50
45
17.01 31.50 185.17 2.21 4.25 192.69
46 11.17 24.44 218.93 1.46 3.50 240.39
47
1.37 5.78 423.69 0.19 0.82 421.21
48
0.07 0.31 447.21 0.01 0.05 447.21
49
5.22 16.14 309.52 0.75 2.31 309.66
50 2.87 7.17 249.98 0.41 1.02 249.42
51
2.63 9.17 349.18 0.42 1.31 312.44
52
0.46 1.31 287.93 0.07 0.20 274.48

44
Figure 4.4: Mean weekly rainfall distribution of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)

Mean
80

70

60

50
mean rainfall

40
Mean
30

20

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
weeks

Figure 4.5: Mean weekly rainy days distribution of Ganjam district (1996 – 2015)

Mean
10

7
mean rainydays

4 Mean

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
weeks

45
The mean weekly rainfall distribution (Figure 4.4) was increased from 23 rd
week and decreased after 43rd week and revealed that these 20 weeks were the safe
growing periods. Similarly, increased trend was found in mean weekly rainy days
(Figure 4.5). The rainy days increased from 23 rd to 43rd weeks and thereafter decreased.

4.1.2 Estimation of Normal, Abnormal and Drought months and seasons with their
probability of occurrence
Various rainfall statistics such as mean, number of drought month (DM), number
of normal month (NM) and number of abnormal months (AM) were estimated and
presented in following Table 4.6 for a period of 20 years (1996 – 2015).
From the Table 4.6, it was found that though August was having the lowest C.V.,
it was the wettest month (average rainfall of 256.02 mm) and January was the driest
month with rainfall 11.08.

46
Table 4.6: Estimation of normal, abnormal and drought months

Month Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

11.08 12.08 18.33 53.51 63.15 168.365 228.425 256.02 215.77 193.49 49.915 11.73
Mean Rainfall

Mean Rainfall as 0.86 0.94 1.43 4.17 4.93 13.13 17.82 19.97 16.83 15.09 3.89 0.91
% of mean
annual rainfall
18.01 19.50 24.18 109.71 50.91 82.00 95.16 74.21 93.83 202.36 73.62 25.37
S.D.
162.5 161.4 131.9 205.0 80.6 48.7 41.7 29.0 43.5 104.6 147.5 216.3
C.V.
5.54 6.04 9.17 26.76 3.07 84.18 114.21 128.01 107.88 96.74 24.95 5.86
A1
22.16 24.16 36.68 107.04 126.3 336.72 456.84 512.04 431.54 386.98 99.82 23.46
A2
12 12 11 10 0 2 0 0 1 7 11 15
di
4 6 5 9 19 18 19 20 18 10 5 1
ni
4 2 4 1 1 0 1 0 1 3 4 4
ai

47
(A) Monthly probability occurrence of Drought, Normal and Abnormal months

With a view to find out the percentage of drought, normal and abnormal months
in 20 years a probability analysis was worked out and sown in Table 4.7
Out of 240 months in 20 years drought, normal and abnormal months had been
found to have 33.75 %, 55.83% and 10.41% respectively.
From the table it is observed that the initial month of monsoon month June had
mean rainfall of 168.37% and there is 90 % chance that June is a normal month with
probability of 0.134. Moreover Percent of total years having July, August, September
and October as normal months was 95%, 100%, 90% and 50%, respectively with
corresponding probabilities of 0.142, 0.149, 0.134 and 0.075.

Table 4.7: Monthly probability occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal


months

Month Drought months Normal months Abnormal months


% of
%of month month
having a % of month having a
P(d) P(n) P(a)
given having a given
month as given month month as
dm as nm am
0.148 60 0.030 20 0.16 20
January
0.148 60 0.045 30 0.08 10
February
0.136 55 0.037 25 0.16 20
March
0.123 50 0.067 45 0.04 5
April
0.000 0 0.142 95 0.04 5
May
0.025 10 0.134 90 0 0
June
0.000 0 0.142 95 0.04 5
July
0.000 0 0.149 100 0 0
August
0.012 5 0.134 90 0.04 5
September
0.086 35 0.075 50 0.12 15
October
0.136 55 0.037 25 0.16 20
November
0.185 75 0.007 5 0.16 20
December

48
(B) Seasonal probability occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal seasons.

Table 4.8 revealed that probability of occurrence of normal months in monsoon


was found to be 0.56 with probability of occurrence of abnormal and drought months as
0.08 and 0.04, respectively. So, the amount of 868.58 mm rainfall during monsoon
contributing 67.75% to the mean annual rainfall was sufficient for kharif season
(monsoon) crops (Table 4.2).

Table 4.8: Probability occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal seasons


Probability of
Probability of Probability of Normal
Season Abnormal rainfall
Drought P(D)* rainfall P(N)*
P(A)*

SUMMER 0.26 0.25 0.24

MONSOON 0.04 0.56 0.08

POST 0.22 0.11 0.28


MONSOON
0.48 0.08 0.4
WINTER
P(D)*, P(N)*, P(A)* are probability of drought normal and abnormal months falling
in given season.

4.2 To assess the influence of rainfall on crop production risk under changing
climate.

4.2.1 Estimation of dry and wet weekly probability by using Markov Chain Model
and its application in crop planning of the study region
More than 70% of net sown area of Ganjam is rainfed where yield of rice, the
predominant kharif crop, is very low as compared to irrigated rice. Lack of assured water
supply is one of the most important factors in reduction of rice yield. It is also not
possible to provide irrigation to all the crops in future because land, soil, drainage and
other related problems in addition to higher investment in infrastructure development
activities. On the other hand rain water management and its optimum utilization is a
prime issue of present day research for sustainability of rainfed agriculture. In order to
stabilize crop production at certain level, it is essential to plan agriculture on a scientific
basis in terms of making best use of rainfall pattern of an area. This necessitates studying
the sequence of dry and wet spells of an area to prepare contingent crop plan in rainfed
region.

Markov chain model was used to find out long term frequency behaviour of wet
and dry weather spells. In the Markov chain, the probability of an event that would occur
on any week depends only on the conditions during the preceding weeks and is

49
dependent of the events of future weeks. Here the week was considered for analysis.
Initial probabilities of occurrence of dry weeks during the different stages of crop growth
and conditional probabilities (taking into account the sequential events) provide the basic
information on rainfall distribution characteristics necessary for agriculture operation
such as irrigation scheduling, time of transplantation etc. The weekly rainfall data of 20
years (1996-2015) were analyzed to find out initial and transitional probabilities.

Table 4.9: Initial and transitional probabilities

Initial Probability Transitional Probability


SMW
P(D) P(W) P(D/D) P(D/W) P(W/W) P(W/D)
1 95 5 95 5 0 0
2 95 5 90 5 0 5
3 100 0 95 0 0 5
4 95 5 100 0 0 0
5 95 5 95 5 0 0
6 95 5 90 5 0 5
7 95 5 95 5 0 0
8 100 0 95 0 0 5
9 95 5 95 5 0 0
10 95 5 95 0 5 0
11 85 15 80 15 0 5
12 95 5 80 5 0 15
13 85 15 85 15 0 0
14 95 5 80 5 0 15
15 100 0 90 5 0 5
16 90 10 85 10 0 5
17 75 25 65 20 0 15
18 95 5 80 5 0 15
19 85 15 75 15 0 10
20 70 30 65 20 10 5
21 70 30 50 20 5 25
22 80 20 55 15 5 25
23 45 55 45 30 20 5
24 30 70 5 35 35 25
25 20 80 10 5 60 25
26 25 75 0 10 60 30
27 20 80 5 20 60 15
28 25 75 0 10 55 35
29 10 90 5 15 70 10
30 10 90 0 10 80 10
31 15 85 5 5 80 10
32 20 80 0 5 65 30
33 20 80 0 10 60 30
34 5 95 0 20 75 5
35 5 95 0 5 85 10
36 0 100 0 0 95 5
37 10 90 0 0 90 10
38 25 75 5 5 80 10
39 25 75 0 5 55 40
40 50 50 15 5 40 40
41 50 50 25 20 30 25

50
Table 4.9: Continued

42 60 40 40 5 30 25
43 75 25 50 10 20 20
44 65 35 50 20 15 15
45 75 25 60 5 20 15
46 85 15 70 5 10 15
47 95 5 85 0 5 10
48 100 0 95 0 0 5
49 90 10 90 10 0 0
50 95 5 90 0 5 5
51 95 5 90 5 0 5
52 100 0 95 0 0 5

Table 4.10: Consecutive dry and wet weeks of the Ganjam district

SMW Consecutive dry probability Consecutive wet probability


P(2D) P(3D) P(2W) P(3W)
1 90.25 95 0 0
2 81 90 0 0
3 90.25 90 0 0
4 100 90 0 0
5 90.25 90 0 0
6 81 85 0 0
7 90.25 85 0 0
8 90.25 90 0 0
9 90.25 90 0 0
10 90.25 95 0.25 0
11 64 80 0 0
12 64 75 0 0
13 72.25 65 0 0
14 64 75 0 0
15 81 75 0 0
16 72.25 80 0 0
17 42.25 65 0 0
18 64 70 0 0
19 56.25 60 0 0
20 42.25 60 3 0
21 25 45 1.5 5
22 30.25 45 1 5
23 20.25 40 11 5
24 0.25 10 24.5 10
25 1 0 48 35
26 0 0 45 55
27 0.25 0 48 45
28 0 0 41.25 40
29 0.25 0 63 60
30 0 0 72 70

51
Table 4.10: continued

31 0.25 0 68 70
32 0 0 52 60
33 0 0 48 45
34 0 0 71.25 60
35 0 0 80.75 70
36 0 0 95 85
37 0 0 81 90
38 0.25 0 60 70
39 0 0 41.25 45
40 2.25 0 20 30
41 6.25 10 15 20
42 16 25 12 15
43 25 35 5 20
44 25 35 5.25 20
45 36 45 5 5
46 49 55 1.5 5
47 72.25 70 0.25 0
48 90.25 85 0 0
49 81 85 0 0
50 81 90 0.25 0
51 81 85 0 0
52 90.25 90 0 0

Results of Table 4.9 revealed that the probability of occurrence of dry week was
high until the end of 22nd week. The range of probability of occurrence of dry week from
1st to 22nd week was between 70% to 100%. The probability of occurrence of dry week
preceded by another dry week and that of dry week preceded by another wet week varied
from 50-100% and from 0-30% respectively during this period. However, from 23rd to
42nd week the probability of dry week and that of dry week preceded by another dry week
was very low. The probability that these weeks remain wet varies from 20-95%. The
chances of occurrence of dry week were again high from 43 rd week to end of the year.
Probability of occurrence of wet week preceded by another wet week during this period
was between 0-20 per cent. Also there was 65-100% risk that the week from 43rd to 52nd
will remain dry and from 46th to 52nd week the risk of week being dry varies from 85-
100%. The analysis of consecutive dry and wet week (Table 4.10) revealed that there
were 20.25-100% chances that two consecutive dry weeks will occur within first 23rd
weeks of the year. Similarly the probability of occurrence of 3 consecutive dry weeks was
also very high (40-95%) in the first 23 weeks of the year. The corresponding values of 2

52
and 3 consecutive wet weeks from 1 st to 23rd weeks were very low with figures ranging
from 0-11% and from 0-5% respectively. From 24th to 41st week, the chances of
occurrence of 2 and 3 consecutive dry weeks were only within 0-6.25% and from 0-10%
respectively.

The analysis revealed that the monsoon starts effectively from 24 th week (11 June
to 17th June) in Ganjam district and remain active upto 40 th week (1st October to 7th
October) Therefore, we expected good monsoon shower for about 17 weeks (24 th to 40th
SMW) in the region. Thus, short duration rice of about 100 – 110 days can easily be
grown in the region with little fear of drought. The short duration rice can be harvested
before the monsoon terminates from the region and so the chances of reduction of the
yield of rice due to water stress will be low. Moreover, the residual soil moisture after the
harvest of rice can be effectively utilised for raising another short duration crop like green
gram and black gram in winter. On the other hand, long duration paddy has every chances
of suffering from drought and hence yield that includes the reproductive phase which may
fall during the preceding phase of monsoon.

4.3 To develop an appropriate model based on the rainfall data for suitable crop
planning.

4.3.1 Prediction of weekly rainfall at different levels of probabilities by using


Normal distribution to evolve rainfall based profitable cropping system of the
region.

To follow the profitable cropping system under rainfed condition, the primary
need of the farmers is to know when and where to sow and reap for successful
cultivation with proper utilization of available rain water. Since the water requirement of
most of the crops are known, the information on receiving a particular amount of rainfall
is more successful than chances of their occurrence. So suitable crop planning is
suggested by determining the probability (per cent) of receiving particular amount of
rainfall in a week. The normal distribution is used for predicting weekly rainfall
probabilities of receiving at least 10, 20, 30 and 40mm of rainfall.

The collected weekly rainfall data of 20 years (1996-2015) was analyzed to


forecast the weekly rainfall at different level of probabilities as follows:

53
Table 4.11: Prediction of weekly rainfall at different levels of probabilities

probability for rainfall (%) of


SMW
10 mm 20 mm 30 mm 40 mm
1 20.48 2.67 0.00 0.00
2 34.57 12.92 3.12 0.47
3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4 4.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
5 8.21 0.06 0.00 0.00
6 25.81 4.47 0.30 0.01
7 26.94 4.89 0.35 0.01
8 6.79 0.03 0.00 0.00
9 12.22 0.31 0.00 0.00
10 21.21 1.70 0.03 0.00
11 38.00 15.60 4.30 0.77
12 15.14 0.51 0.00 0.00
13 44.60 22.07 8.02 2.08
14 25.26 1.74 0.02 0.00
15 21.68 0.83 0.00 0.00
16 40.14 13.07 2.30 0.21
17 58.32 48.58 38.93 29.91
18 29.94 2.27 0.03 0.00
19 47.16 16.64 3.11 0.29
20 60.24 35.47 15.74 5.08
21 64.26 51.49 38.57 26.81
22 57.27 33.81 15.42 5.27
23 79.41 58.76 35.27 16.42
24 80.27 73.11 64.84 55.80
25 81.58 74.82 66.92 58.20
26 83.97 76.39 67.17 56.77
27 78.03 72.51 66.38 59.78
28 75.74 69.59 62.82 55.63
29 89.34 83.56 76.05 66.99
30 72.46 69.14 65.65 62.02
31 92.60 87.21 79.56 69.69
32 81.01 75.35 68.88 61.77
33 92.63 85.59 75.03 61.36
34 90.49 84.86 77.36 68.12
35 81.38 77.40 72.99 68.18
36 89.95 84.62 77.68 69.24
37 83.20 76.83 69.29 60.84
38 86.55 80.31 72.59 63.61
39 80.45 71.78 61.59 50.52
40 75.99 71.22 66.04 60.54
41 70.47 65.01 59.21 53.21
42 70.35 63.93 57.09 50.03
43 61.20 57.73 54.20 50.64

54
Table 4.11: Continued
44 64.61 58.29 51.75 45.16
45 58.81 46.22 34.00 23.27
46 51.90 35.89 22.05 11.91
47 6.77 0.06 0.00 0.00
48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
49 38.34 17.98 6.23 1.56
50 16.02 0.85 0.00 0.00
51 21.05 2.90 0.14 0.00
52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Results of Table 4.11 revealed that the probability of 10 mm rainfall per week is
more than 70% from 23td week (4th June to 10th June) and continued to be so up to 42 nd
week. The probability of getting 40 mm rainfall at 23rd, 24th and 25th week (SMW) were
16.42%, 55.80% and 58.20% respectively and thereafter the probability were mostly
higher than 50% up to 43rd SMW (Reddy et al 2008).

55
CHAPTER-5
DISCUSSION

56
DISCUSSION
The results obtained in the previous chapter were discussed under different
objectives of the study as follows:

5.1 To analyse the variability and pattern of rainfall – annual, monthly, seasonal
and weekly.

5.1 .1 Discussion on the rainfall characteristics and rainfall variability pattern


of the region under study

Annual Rainfall

The mean annual rainfall of the region was found to be 1282 mm with an average
of 92.75 rainy days during the study years. Among the analyzed 20 years, it was found
that 13 years were normal, 5 drought and 2 abnormal. Highest rainfall of 1972.3 mm
with 112 rainy days occurred in 2013 and it was 53% more than normal. The lowest
rainfall of 876.3 mm with 79 rainy days occurred in 1996 and it was 31% less than
normal. The distribution of rainfall was found within the range of 77 – 120 days. The
annual rainfall trend was significant (Figure 4.1) in 13 th years (1997, 1998, 1999, 2000,
2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2014) and it is clear from the
Figure 4.2 that no of rainy days were found significance 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001,
2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, and 2015 (Sarkar et al. 2013).

Seasonal Rainfall

The daily rainfall data of 20 years were divided into 4 seasons as summer,
Monsoon, Post monsoon and winter. March, April and May are summer months, June,
July, August and September are monsoon months, October and November are post
monsoon months and December, January and February are winter months In the study
concerned it is also found that monsoon season has highest rainfall of 868.58 mm and
highest rainy days of 66 days with highest contribution in both the cases (Ghosh et al.
2014).

Monthly Rainfall

It varies from region to region the highest rainfall giving month i.e. it may be July
or August. Most of the time it is shown that the month contributing highest rainfall is
having the lowest CV. But in this study it is found that July was the highest rainfall

57
giving month (256.02 mm) where as August was having the lowest C.V. of 29.0 (Subash
and Das 2004).

Weekly Rainfall

Table 4.5 Mean SMW rainfall showed that from 23 SMW onwards the rainfall
was recorded within the range of 23.70 mm to 73.82 mm per SMW and continued upto
44 SMW. 35 SMW had highest rain of 73.82 mm and 48 SMW had the lowest rainfall of
0.07 mm. The data also indicated that out of 52 meteorological weeks the CV recorded in
11 meteorological weeks are within 100 and distributed from July to September (Bhakar
et al. 2007).

5.2 To assess the influence of rainfall on crop production risk under changing
climate

5.2.1 Discussion on findings of dry and wet week probability worked out by using
Markov Chain model and its application in the crop planning of the region

More than 70% of net sown area of Ganjam is rainfed where yield of rice, the
predominant kharif crop is very low as compared to irrigated rice. Lack of assured water
supply is one of the most important factors in reduction of rice yield. It is also not
possible to provide irrigation to all the crops in future because land, soil, drainage and
other related problems in addition to higher investment in infrastructure development
activities. On the other hand rain water management and its optimum utilization is a
prime issue of present day research for sustainability of rainfed agriculture. In order to
stabilize crop production at certain level, it is essential to plan agriculture on a scientific
basis in terms of making best use of rainfall pattern of an area. This necessitates
studying the sequence of dry and wet spells of an area to prepare contingent crop plan in
rainfed region.

From the tables 4.9 and 4.10 it is found that occurrence of dry weeks and
consecutive dry weeks are very high until 22 SMW. Somewhere monsoon arrives on or
before 22 SMW and somewhere it may be late. In this study concerned it is found that
monsoon arrives by 24 SMW and weeks are highly wet till 41 SMW. From 46 SMW
onwards occurrence of dry week is again high.

58
So the water available in this period must be utilized. Short duration paddy crops
may be grown during this period. Water can be kept saved for future use. The study
region (Undulating plain drought prone region of Ganjam district) is such a place where
great variability is shown in rainfall distribution throughout the year.

5.3 To develop an appropriate model based on the rainfall data for suitable crop
planning

5.3.1 Discussion on existing cropping pattern and evolvement of rainfall based


profitable cropping system of the region after getting the results of prediction
of weekly rainfall at different levels of probabilities worked out by using
Normal distribution

Existing cropping pattern

Apart from rice other major crops of this region are maize, ragi, green gram
(Vigna radiata), black gram (Vigna mungo), arhar, patato (Solanum tuberosum),
Groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) sesamam, sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum). In Kharif
solanaceous vegetables like Brinjal, Chilli, beans, are grown. Cabbage and cauliflower
and tomato are the main vegetables in winter season. In summer chilli is grown under
irrigated condition.

Because of limited irrigation facility, the productivity of most of the crops in the
region is low. Kharif crops of about 90-100 days are grown except low land paddy,
which is about 110-120 days duration. After harvest of kharif crops, rabi crops are taken
with the residual soil moisture available in the seedling zone. Early withdrawal of South
West Monsoon (SWM) also limits the chances of taking second crop. Thus most of the
un-irrigated area in the region is left fallow in the rabi and summer season, particularly
when SWM recedes earlier than normal dates (Sheoran et al. 2008).

PROPOSED CROP PLANNING

Kharif (Monsoon)

Kharif crops require 40-50mm of first rain water within a span of 3 days for
germination and there after 40-50mm of rain water within a period of next 5 days to
sustain the crop under medium and heavy soils respectively.

59
The probability of 10mm rainfall per week is more than 70% from 23rd week (4th
June to 10th June) and continued to be so up to 42 nd (15 – 21 October) week. An amount
of 10mm rainfall per week can be taken as the minimum requirement for sowing rainfed
kharif crops. It is evident from table 4.11 that the probability of getting 40mm rainfall at
23rd, 24th and 25th week (SMW) were 16.42%, 55.80% and 58.20% respectively and
thereafter the probability was mostly higher than 50% up to 43rd SMW. Therefore the
Kharif cereals like early paddy (direct sown) ragi, small millets, maize, arhar, black
gram, sesamum and groundnut nurseries for transplanted paddy can be sown either in
23rd and 24th SMW (4th – 17th June) with the pre-monsoon showers which seems to be
sufficient to bear the normal soil moisture rang and afford good germination. The direct
sown paddy and paddy nurseries will be ready for further cultural operation and
transplantation with the onset of monsoon (26th to 27th SMW) i.e. by 1st or 2nd week of
July. The transplantation of paddy should be completed within July and August as high
rainfall from 27th to 40th SMW. The transplanted crop needs more water for puddling in
addition to normal water requirement and the above period gets 40mm rain at more than
50% probability. Besides paddy, pulse crops like green gram, red gram black gram and
oilseed crops can also be grown successfully in kharif provided proper weed
management is followed. The crop varieties should be such that safely harvested at the
end of October as the probability of rainfall is almost nil. Intercropping like Arhar + Rice
(2:5), Arhar + Ragi (1:1), Arhar + Groundnut (2:5) can be taken (Singh et al. 2007).

Rabi

During 44th to 46th SMW (29th oct. – 18th November) probability of getting 10
mm rainfall per week was more than 50 per cent. This period is suitable for land
preparation and swing of rabi crops like green gram, black gram, fild pea, lathyrus,
sesamum, groundnut and vegetables can be taken. After 46th (12 – 18 November) week
farmers are advised for zero till swing of pulse and oilseeds crops requiring less water. It
could be seen from the table 4.11 that after 46th (12 – 18 November) week there is
remote possibility of rain as the probability of rainfall is less than 50% for all the
amounts i.e. for 10mm, 20mm, 30mm and 40mm. direct sowing of Rabi crops just after
harvest of Kharif crops may also be tried to realize the advantage of residual moisture. In
general, irrespective of cropping pattern the Rabi crops like green gram, black gram,
groundnut should be sown within October and could be safely harvested in February or
March (Singh 2008).

60
CHAPTER-6

SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

61
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
The Chapter – 1 gives an overall idea about climatological pattern of Odisha and
the importance of rainfall to the cropping pattern of the state. A vivid picture of different
agroclimatic zones of Odisha along with the region (undulating plain drought prone
region of Ganjam district) had been presented in chapter-1. The average rainfall of
Odisha is 1480 mm of which major amount was being received during monsoon months
i.e. from June to September. Since most of the areas in Odisha are under rainfed
condition the amount of rainfall and its distribution plays an important role in
Agriculture and allied activities. Apart from production and productivity the estimation
of amount of rainfall and its distribution plays an important role for engineers for their
plan for soil conservation and bridge construction and irrigation schedules.

In the year of normal rainfall, the distribution of rainfall controls the crop yield.
In the year of drought, there is scarcity of rainfall causing drought and in the year of
abnormal years there is chances of flood.

Keeping in view the importance of rainfall in Odisha an attempt was taken to


study the rainfall pattern of the undulating plain drought prone region of Ganjam district
as Ganjam is one of the most problematic district with most of the cultivated area
depending upon rainfall. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data for a period of 20 years
(1996-2015) were collected from Special Relief Commission office, Rajeev Bhaban,
Bhubaneswar. The present study on “Rainfall analysis for crop planning in Ganjam
district” primarily aims in estimating the annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall
characteristics along with the probability occurrence of drought, normal and abnormal
rainfall. A calculation on changeover of rainfall is also done. A study is done on dry and
wet weeks probability by Markov chain Model to propose crop planning of the region. A
study on normal distribution is also made for predicting weekly rainfall probabilities to
evolve rainfall based profitable cropping system.

The salient features of the study are as follows:

1. The mean annual rainfall of the region was found to be 1282 mm with an average
of 92 rainy days during the study years. Highest rainfall of 1972.3 mm with 112
rainy days occurred in 2013 and it was 53% more than normal. The lowest

62
rainfall of 876.3 mm with 79 rainy days occurred in 1996 and it was 31% less
than normal.
2. 868.58 mm rainfall occurred in monsoon season. The rainfall amount found to be
243.41 mm, in post monsoon and summer respectively 135 mm. And in winter it
is found to be the lowest rainfall of 34.12 mm. The seasonal co-efficient of
variation (CV) found lowest in monsoon (39.69%) indicating that rainfall was
most reliable during monsoon.
3. August was the highest (256.02 mm) rainfall contributing month, followed by
July (228.43 mm). The co-efficient of variation due to monthly rainfall ranged
from 28.98% (lowest) to 216.31% (highest). June, July, August and September
were the most reliable months as they showed CV values of 48.70, 41.66, 28.98
and 43.49 respectively.
4. From 23 SMW (04 - 10 June) onwards the rainfall was recorded within the range
of 23.70 mm to 73.82 mm per SMW and continued upto 44 SMW (29th Oct. –
04th November) had highest rain of 73.82 mm and 48 SMW had the lowest
rainfall of 0.07 mm.
5. Probability of occurrence of normal months in monsoon was found to be 0.56
with probability of occurrence of abnormal and drought months were 0.08 and
0.04 respectively.
6. Out of 240 months in 20 years drought, normal and abnormal months had been
found to have 33.75 %, 55.83% and 10.41% respectively. Moreover Per cent of
total years having July, August, September and October as normal months was
95%, 100%, 90% and 50% respectively with corresponding probabilities of
0.142, 0.149, 0.134 and 0.075 respectively.
7. The range of probability of occurrence of dry week from 1 st to 22nd week is
between 70% to 100%. The probability of occurrence of dry week preceded by
another dry week and that of dry week preceded by another wet week vary from
50-100% and from 0-30% respectively during this period. The probability that
the weeks between 23rd to 42nd remain wet varies from 20-95%.
8. There were 20.25-100% chances that two consecutive dry weeks will occur
within first 23 weeks. Similarly the probability of occurrence of 3 consecutive
dry weeks was also very high (40-95%) in the first 23 weeks of the year. The
corresponding values of 2 and 3 consecutive wet weeks from 1 st to 23rd weeks
were very low with figures ranging from 0-6.25% and from 0-10% respectively.
63
9. Monsoon starts effectively from 24th week (11 June to 17th June). One can
therefore expect good monsoon shower for about 17 weeks in the region.

10. The probability of 10mm rainfall per week is more than 70% from 23td week (4th
June to 10th June) and continued to be so up to 42 nd week. The probability of
getting 40mm rainfall at 23rd, 24th and 25th week (SMW) were 16.42%, 55.80%
and 58.20% respectively and thereafter the probability were mostly higher than
50% up to 43rd SMW (Reddy et al 2008).

11. The probability of 10 mm rainfall per week is more than 50% from 44 th to 46th
SMW (29th October – 18th November) sowing of rabi pulses and oilseeds should
be completed probability by zero tillage for quick coverage an better utilization
of soil moisture. After 46th week going any crop is risky without assured
irrigation because probability of getting 10 mm rainfall week was less than 50 per
cent.

Conclusion

The overall mean rainfall of the Ganjam district was 1282 mm with monsoon
season contributing the highest to the annual rainfall. The seasonal C.V. was found
lowest in Monsoon (39.69%) indicating rainfall was most reliable. The probability that
these weeks remain wet varies between 45 to 100 percent and the transitional probability
of wet week proceeded by another wet week varies from 20 to 95 percent. During the
period (24 SMW to 43 SMW) probability of getting 40 mm rainfall was more than 50
percent. Monsoon starts from 23 SMW (04 - 10 June) and departs on about 42 SMW (15
- 21 October). So short duration paddy maize millets and sugarcane should be grown in
some areas. And the long duration paddy varieties must be avoided as it may cause a
heavy risk during drought or dry spell. The rainfall before 23 SMW should be utilized
for land preparation. And after 43 SMW (22 Oct. – 28 Nov.) the residual moisture should
be utilized for pulses (green gram, black gram), oilseeds (ground nut, sesamum) and
various vegetables. Intercropping like Arhar + Rice (2:5), Arhar + Ragi (1:1), Arhar +
Groundnut (2:5) can be taken. Farmers should go for zero tillage practice efficient use of
soil moisture as quick operations.

64
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