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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 21ST JANUARY 2019, 6 AM PST

UltraPoll - British Columbia
Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
21st January 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on a survey With 20 years of political experience in all three
conducted between January 13th to January 14th levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2018 among a sample of 887 adults, 18 years of age Maggi is a respected commentator on international
or older, living in British Columbia. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
both landlines and cellular phones. Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
and was not sponsored by a third party. to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
The sampling frame was derived from both accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
a national telephone directory compiled by was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
Mainstreet Research from commerical available the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
sources and random digit dialing. The part of is a member of the World Association for Public
the survey that dialed from the directory was Opinion Research and meets international and
conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in Canadian publication standards.
British Columbia; Greater Vancouver, Vancouver
Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case CONTACT INFORMATION
of random digit dials, respondents were asked the In Ottawa:
additional question of what region of the country Quito Maggi, President
they resided in. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.29% In Toronto:
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BC NDP TAKE A SLENDER LEAD OVER BC LIBERALS

21 January 2018 (Vancouver, BC) – The governing British Columbia NDP have opened a slight lead over the
opposition BC Liberals, but the gap between the two parties remains smaller than the margin of error.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls.
The poll surveyed 887 British Columbians between January 13th and 14th 2019. The poll has a margin of
error of +/- 3.29% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“John Horgan and Andrew Wilkinson remain deadlocked among British Columbians with neither of them
being able to get a definitive upper hand over the other,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research.

“That said, it’s Advantage NDP right now and they have the biggest lead that we have found in some time.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the governing NDP led by John Horgan lead with 37% support (+4.7%
from Mainstreet’s November poll), while the opposition Liberals with Andrew Wilkinson at the helm have 34.9%
(+1%). The BC Green Party with Andrew Weaver as leader have 14.6% (-3.6%), while the BC Conservatives
with interim leader Scott Anderson have 11.2% (-1.4%).

“The NDP gains are almost exclusively due to a dip in Green Party support, but we do note that the BC
Conservatives are doing much better in the interior compared to their levels of support in the rest of province,”
added Maggi.

“Should some of that BC Conservative support go to the Liberals in an election, the Liberals would then take
a lead.”

The poll also found that Horgan was the only leader that has a positive favourability rating among all the party
leaders, but his rating is not that impressive with the province evenly split on their opinions of the Premier.

Horgan has a +0.3% favourability rating, while Wilkinson has a -6.6% rating. Weaver has a negative rating of
-4%, while Anderson has a rating of -5.2%.

“It is rather clear that British Columbians are not really feeling inspired by their choice of party leaders,” Maggi
concluded.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

14.3%

1.7%
31.8%

8.5%

All Voters

12.8%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
30.8%

8.2%2.2%
1.3%
11.2%
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
10.2%
31.5%
Another Party Undecided

37%
14.6%

All Voters
14.6% Decided and Leaning Voters

34.2%
34.9%

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
Another Party Undecided
Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

37.0%

34.9%

14.6%
All

11.2%

2.2%

40.2%
Vancouver CMA

35.9%

12.6%

9.5%

1.8%

44.4%
Vancouver Island

21.2%

23.0%

9.5%

2.0%

27.0%

41.3%
BC Interior

13.4%

15.3%

3.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of the following party leaders?
ohn Horgan Andrew Wilkinson

7.5%
12.8%
17.1%

29.7%

33.5%
John Horgan Andrew Wilkinson
23.7%

46.4%

ndrew Weaver John Horgan
29.4%
Scott Anderson

9.5% 6.7%
12.7%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
21%
26% 11.9%

32.8%

26.4%

Andrew Weaver John Horgan Scott Anderson

41.3% 25%

31.3% 55.4%

Favourable Unfavourable NotFavourable
Sure Unfavourable
Not Familiar Not Sure
Favourable Not Familiar
Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 31.8% 30.6% 33% 33% 31.5% 28.5% 35% 34.9% 39.9% 21.6%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 30.8% 36.6% 25.2% 26% 24.5% 37.5% 35.5% 32.1% 18.1% 36.1%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 12.8% 11.3% 14.3% 10% 15% 14.5% 11.8% 10.6% 21.4% 11.6%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 8.5% 7.8% 9.2% 11.7% 8.7% 7.5% 5.6% 6.6% 8.6% 11.8%
Another Party 1.7% 2.4% 1% 2.2% 2% 1.7% 0.6% 1.7% 1% 2.1%
Undecided 14.3% 11.3% 17.2% 17.1% 18.2% 10.3% 11.5% 14% 10.9% 16.9%
Unweighted Frequency 887 463 424 127 174 279 307 319 179 389
Weighted Frequency 887 437 450 239 216 245 187 467 157 263

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 34.8% 31.8% 37.8% 37.2% 34.4% 30.1% 38.5% 37.8% 43.1% 24.7%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 32.9% 38.6% 27.4% 28.3% 27.1% 39.2% 37.1% 33.8% 20.9% 38.3%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 13.8% 11.8% 15.7% 11.2% 16.6% 14.5% 12.8% 11.8% 22.2% 12.3%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 10.5% 10% 10.9% 13.2% 10.7% 10.5% 6.7% 8.8% 9.2% 14.1%
Another Party 2.1% 3.1% 1% 3.3% 2% 2% 0.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.8%
Undecided 6% 4.7% 7.3% 6.8% 9.1% 3.8% 4.2% 6% 2.7% 7.8%
Unweighted Frequency 887 463 424 127 174 279 307 319 179 389
Weighted Frequency 887 437 450 239 216 245 187 467 157 263

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
BC NDP led by John Horgan 37% 33.4% 40.6% 39.9% 37.8% 31.2% 40.2% 40.2% 44.4% 27%
BC Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson 34.9% 40.4% 29.5% 30.5% 29.8% 40.8% 38.7% 35.9% 21.2% 41.3%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 14.6% 12.3% 16.9% 12% 18.3% 15% 13.3% 12.6% 23% 13.4%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 11.2% 10.6% 11.8% 14.2% 11.8% 10.9% 7.1% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3%
Another Party 2.2% 3.3% 1.2% 3.5% 2.2% 2.1% 0.6% 1.8% 2% 3%
Unweighted Frequency 838 445 393 118 160 267 293 302 175 361
Weighted Frequency 838 412 425 226 204 231 177 441 148 249
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 29.7% 30.6% 28.8% 27.6% 29.1% 27.3% 36.2% 30.6% 42.4% 20.6%
Unfavourable 29.4% 35.8% 23.2% 20% 30.8% 37.1% 29.8% 26.2% 22.2% 39.3%
Not Familiar with John Horgan 7.5% 6.5% 8.4% 12.1% 8.7% 3.9% 4.8% 8.9% 4% 7%
Not Sure 33.5% 27% 39.7% 40.3% 31.4% 31.8% 29.2% 34.3% 31.5% 33.1%
Unweighted Frequency 887 463 424 127 174 279 307 319 179 389
Weighted Frequency 887 437 450 239 216 245 187 467 157 263

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Wilkinson?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 17.1% 20.1% 14.2% 11.1% 13.8% 20.8% 23.8% 18.4% 15.9% 15.5%
Unfavourable 23.7% 26.7% 20.7% 19.6% 25.4% 23.1% 27.7% 24.6% 27.5% 19.7%
Not Familiar with Andrew Wilkinson 12.8% 9.6% 15.8% 14.2% 17.4% 9.9% 9.5% 13.1% 13.4% 11.9%
Not Sure 46.4% 43.6% 49.2% 55.2% 43.5% 46.2% 39% 43.8% 43.2% 53%
Unweighted Frequency 887 463 424 127 174 279 307 319 179 389
Weighted Frequency 887 437 450 239 216 245 187 467 157 263

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Weaver?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 24.7% 23.3% 26.1% 22.8% 31.2% 22.4% 22.8% 22.5% 41.2% 18.9%
Unfavourable 28.6% 34.1% 23.6% 20.9% 28.4% 33.1% 33.4% 28.2% 26.4% 31.1%
Not Familiar with Andrew Weaver 14.9% 13.5% 16.4% 20.8% 13.3% 10.5% 15.2% 15% 5.8% 20.3%
Not Sure 31.6% 29.2% 33.9% 35.5% 27.1% 34% 28.6% 34.3% 26.6% 29.7%
Unweighted Frequency 963 541 422 150 206 288 319 409 173 381
Weighted Frequency 963 474 489 259 234 266 203 507 170 286

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Scott Anderson?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
Favourable 21% 19.5% 22.5% 17.3% 22.7% 20.7% 24.2% 20.3% 35.7% 13.5%
Unfavourable 25% 33.2% 17% 20.5% 23.9% 27.7% 28.4% 22.8% 22% 30.6%
Not Familiar with Andrew Weaver 12.7% 9.3% 15.9% 16.1% 15.8% 9.1% 9.2% 14.1% 10.6% 11.3%
Not Sure 41.3% 38% 44.6% 46.1% 37.6% 42.5% 38.1% 42.7% 31.7% 44.6%
Unweighted Frequency 887 463 424 127 174 279 307 319 179 389
Weighted Frequency 887 437 450 239 216 245 187 467 157 263
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, Favourable opinion
which party would you vote for? Unfavourable opinion
British Columbia New Democratic Party Not sure
led by John Horgan Not familiar with Andrew Wilkinson
British Columbia Liberal Party led by
Andrew Wilkinson Do you have a favourable or
Green Party of British Columbia led by unfavourable opinion of Andrew
Andrew Weaver Weaver?
British Columbia Conservative Party led Favourable opinion
by Scott Anderson Unfavourable opinion
Another Party Not sure
Undecided Not familiar with Andrew Weaver

And which party are you leaning Do you have a favourable or
towards? (only asked of respondents unfavourable opinion of Scott
who were undecided in previous Anderson?
question) Favourable opinion
British Columbia New Democratic Party Unfavourable opinion
led by John Horgan Not sure
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Not familiar with Scott Anderson
Andrew Wilkinson
Green Party of British Columbia led by What is your gender?
Andrew Weaver Male
British Columbia Conservative Party led Female
by Scott Anderson
Another Party What is your age group?
Undecided 18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
(the order of the next four questions 50 to 64 years of age
were randomized) 65 years of age or older
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with John Horgan

Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Andrew
Wilkinson?
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 13th to January
14th 2019 among a sample of 887 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of British
Columbia.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and have not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.

The sampling frame for the survey was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled
by Mainstreet Research from commerical available sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of Greater Vancouver, Vancouver
Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked
the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. In each case, respondents were
dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact
with a potential respondent. The previous statement also applies to the second survey except the
survey was conducted over one day. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the
field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for
adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error is +/- 3.29% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each
subsamples.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.55%, Females: +/- 4.76%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 8.7%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.43%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.87%, 65+ age group:
+/- 5.59%, Greater Vancouver: +/- 5.49%, Vancouver Island: +/- 7.32%, Rest of British Columbia: +/-
4.97%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.