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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 22ND JANUARY 2019, 6 AM MST

UltraPoll - Alberta Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
22nd January 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all three
a survey conducted between January 15th and levels of government, President and CEO Quito
16th, 2019 among a sample of 893 adults, 18 years Maggi is a respected commentator on international
of age or older, living in Alberta. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
both landlines and cellular phones. Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
The sampling frame was derived from random government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
digit dialing. to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
and was not sponsored by a third party. was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.28% is a member of the World Association for Public
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
UCP STILL LEAD OVER NDP; NOTLEY’S APPROVAL RATINGS IMPROVE

22 January 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The United Conservative Party maintain nearly a 25% lead over the
governing NDP, while Rachel Notley’s approval ratings have improved since November.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 893 Albertans between January 15th and 16th 2019. The poll has a margin
of error of +/- 3.28% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Both the governing NDP and the UCP have lost some support since our last Alberta poll in November,”
said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP with Jason Kenney as leader have 52.3% (-2% from
Mainstreet’s November poll), while the governing NDP led by Rachel Notley have 27.8% (-1.3%). The
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel have 7.7% (+2.2%), and the Alberta Liberal Party with David
Khan at the helm have 6.1% (+0.9%).

The Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes has 3% (+0.3%), while Derek
Fildebrandt’s Freedom Conservative Party has 2.4% (-0.1%).

The poll also asked about the favourability ratings of five of the party leaders and found that Notley
has a -12.4% net favourability rating while Kenney has a +6.6% rating.

But Maggi notes that these numbers are a big improvement for Notley since November and that this
should give the NDP some hope in the next election.

“In November we found a 35% gap between Notley and Kenney in terms of net favourability, but this
month the gap between the two has narrowed to 19%”, said Maggi.

The amount of Albertans that have a positive impression of Notley (36.9%) is roughly the same as
those who think positively about Kenney (39.7%) with the difference being within the margin of error.

“The UCP is polling higher than Kenney’s favourability numbers again this month, while Notley is
polling above the NDP this month,” concluded Maggi. “This shows that Notley is clearly an asset to
the NDP, while the same can’t be said for Kenney and the UCP.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters
vote for?

10.8%

0.6%
2.8% 25.1%

6.1%

1.6%

4.9%
All Voters

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
9.8% 48%

0.6% 0.7%
2.3% 3%
7.7% 26.3%
NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
4.7%
2.4%Party
Alberta Alberta Greens Another Party Undecided
27.8%
2.2%
6.1%
4.1%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters

49.9%
52.3%

NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party Undecided
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

12.2%

22.7%
1.5%

36.9%
39.7%

4.6%
Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

49.3%

David Khan 33.1%

7%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure

24.1%

49.6%
David Khan

Rachel Notley
19.2%
Stephen Mandel Derek Fildebrandt
13.2%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure 8.6%
15.6%
3.7% 31.3%

42.1% 42.4%
Rachel Notley 30.1%
Stephen Mandel Derek Fildebrandt
25.2%

51.8%

17% 18.9%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure
Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 25.1% 21.4% 28.8% 25.1% 19.7% 24.5% 35.2% 26.3% 34.1% 14.8%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 48% 60.6% 35.5% 42.2% 57.6% 51% 38.7% 45.2% 37.8% 61.8%
Liberals led by David Khan 4.9% 2.5% 7.3% 5.7% 2.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 6.5% 2.8%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 1.6% 1.9% 1.4% 2.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 6.1% 5% 7.2% 7.2% 6% 4.1% 7.4% 5.9% 7.7% 4.9%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 2.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4% 2.1% 3.1% 0.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.6%
Another Party 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.6%
Undecided 10.8% 6.8% 14.8% 13.1% 9.2% 10% 10.4% 12% 9.2% 10.8%
Unweighted Frequency 857 549 308 172 263 255 167 224 224 409
Weighted Frequency 857 427 430 273 233 214 136 350 250 257

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 26.4% 22.3% 30.5% 26.8% 20.3% 26.2% 36.5% 27.3% 35.9% 15.9%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 50.1% 61.8% 38.4% 43.6% 61.5% 51.9% 40.5% 46.6% 39.9% 64.6%
Liberals led by David Khan 5.7% 3.3% 8.1% 7.7% 2.6% 5.9% 6.7% 7% 7% 2.8%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 2.2% 1.9% 2.6% 2.3% 1.5% 3.3% 1.5% 2.4% 1.6% 2.6%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 7.3% 6% 8.6% 9.5% 6.8% 4.5% 7.9% 7.5% 8.5% 5.8%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 2.8% 1.2% 4.4% 4% 2.1% 3.1% 1.2% 3.2% 2.4% 2.7%
Another Party 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.7%
Undecided 4.8% 2.7% 6.9% 5.8% 4% 4.5% 4.9% 5.7% 3.5% 4.9%
Unweighted Frequency 857 549 308 172 263 255 167 224 224 409
Weighted Frequency 857 427 430 273 233 214 136 350 250 257

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 27.8% 22.9% 32.7% 28.4% 21.1% 27.5% 38.7% 29.1% 37.4% 16.8%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 52.3% 63.5% 41.3% 46% 64% 54.1% 42.4% 49.2% 41% 67.7%
Liberals led by David Khan 6.1% 3.4% 8.8% 8.3% 2.7% 6.3% 7.1% 7.5% 7.3% 3%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 2.4% 1.9% 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 3.5% 1.6% 2.6% 1.7% 2.7%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 7.7% 6.2% 9.2% 10.2% 7.1% 4.7% 8.3% 8% 8.9% 6.1%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 3% 1.2% 4.7% 4.4% 2.1% 3.2% 1.2% 3.4% 2.5% 2.9%
Another Party 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.8%
Unweighted Frequency 823 537 286 164 255 244 160 213 218 392
Weighted Frequency 823 410 413 262 224 206 131 336 240 247
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 36.9% 34.5% 39.4% 36.2% 28.4% 39.7% 48.7% 42.9% 44.5% 21.5%
Unfavourable 49.3% 56.9% 41.8% 46.7% 58.3% 50% 38% 43.4% 40.7% 65.8%
Not Familiar with Rachel Notley 1.5% 1.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1% 2% 1.7%
Not sure 12.2% 7.5% 16.9% 15.3% 11.6% 8.9% 12.5% 12.7% 12.9% 11.1%
Unweighted Frequency 857 549 308 172 263 255 167 224 224 409
Weighted Frequency 857 427 430 273 233 214 136 350 250 257

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 39.7% 47% 32.4% 37.1% 43.3% 44.1% 31.4% 39.4% 30.7% 48.8%
Unfavourable 33.1% 32.6% 33.6% 29.5% 29.7% 33.8% 45.1% 38% 38% 21.7%
Not Familiar with Jason Kenney 4.6% 3.4% 5.8% 6.3% 3.9% 3.2% 4.4% 1.4% 6.9% 6.5%
Not sure 22.7% 17.1% 28.2% 27.1% 23.1% 18.8% 19.2% 21.2% 24.4% 23%
Unweighted Frequency 857 549 308 172 263 255 167 224 224 409
Weighted Frequency 857 427 430 273 233 214 136 350 250 257

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of David Khan?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 7% 4.4% 9.5% 10% 6.7% 2.7% 8.1% 10.7% 6.4% 2.4%
Unfavourable 24.1% 31% 17.4% 22.4% 22.2% 26.9% 26.8% 23.1% 24% 25.7%
Not Familiar with David Khan 19.2% 19% 19.5% 18.8% 22% 18.1% 17.3% 17% 17% 24.5%
Not sure 49.6% 45.6% 53.6% 48.9% 49.1% 52.3% 47.8% 49.2% 52.5% 47.4%
Unweighted Frequency 857 549 308 172 263 255 167 224 224 409
Weighted Frequency 857 427 430 273 233 214 136 350 250 257

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Stephen Mandel?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 15.6% 14.5% 16.7% 17.2% 9.3% 14.6% 25% 10.5% 24.5% 14%
Unfavourable 25.2% 31.9% 18.6% 21% 29% 26.7% 24.9% 20.6% 33.6% 23.3%
Not Familiar with Stephen Mandel 17% 15.8% 18.2% 20.4% 16.8% 15.9% 12.4% 20.3% 10.1% 19.3%
Not sure 42.1% 37.8% 46.4% 41.4% 44.9% 42.8% 37.7% 48.6% 31.8% 43.4%
Unweighted Frequency 857 549 308 172 263 255 167 224 224 409
Weighted Frequency 857 427 430 273 233 214 136 350 250 257

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Derek Fildebrandt?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 8.6% 10.4% 6.7% 11% 8.6% 5.1% 8.8% 9% 8.2% 8.3%
Unfavourable 30.1% 37.1% 23.2% 22.7% 29% 33% 42.2% 28% 37.3% 26%
Not familiar with Derek Fildebrandt 18.9% 15.5% 22.3% 23.8% 18.6% 19% 9.5% 21.4% 12.6% 21.6%
Not Sure 42.4% 37% 47.8% 42.5% 43.7% 42.9% 39.5% 41.6% 41.9% 44.1%
Unweighted Frequency 857 549 308 172 263 255 167 224 224 409
Weighted Frequency 857 427 430 273 233 214 136 350 250 257
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
party would you vote for? opinion of David Khan?
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel Favourable opinion
Notley Unfavourable opinion
United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney Not sure
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan Not familiar with David Khan
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Fildebrandt opinion of Stephen Mandel?
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon- Favourable opinion
Greyeyes Unfavourable opinion
Another Party Not sure
Undecided Not familiar with Stephen Mandel

And which party are you leaning towards? Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
(only asked of respondents who were opinion of Derek Fildebrandt?
undecided in previous question) Favourable opinion
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel Unfavourable opinion
Notley Not sure
United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney Not familiar with Derek Fildebrandt
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel What is your gender?
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek Male
Fildebrandt Female
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon-
Greyeyes What is your age group?
Another Party 18 to 34 years of age
Undecided 35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
(the order of the next five questions were 65 years of age or older
randomized)
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Rachel Notley?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Rachel Notley

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Jason Kenney?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Jason Kenney
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 15th
and 16th, 2019 among a sample of 857 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population
of Alberta.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing and respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.28% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.18%, Females: +/-
5.58%, 18-34 age group: +/- 7.47%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.04%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.14%,
65+ age group: +/- 7.58%, Calgary +/- 6.55%, Edmonton, 6.55%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 4.85%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.