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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 28th JANUARY 2019, 6 AM EST

UltraPoll - Ontario Edition
Voter Intentions & Party Leaders’
Favourability Ratings

28th January 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of a With 20 years of political experience in all three
survey conducted between January 15th to 17th, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2019 among a sample of 1127 adults, 18 years Maggi is a respected commentator on international
of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
landlines and cellular phones. Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
The sampling frame was derived from both government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
a national telephone directory compiled by to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
Mainstreet Research from various commercially in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
available sources and random digit dialing. The accurately predicted the Miami & New York City
part of the survey that dialed from the directory Mayoral elections.and the Alabama special election
was conducted as a stratified dial of the following in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the
regions; Toronto (also known as the 416 region), World Association for Public Opinion Research
the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 and meets international and Canadian publication
region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern standards.
Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents were CONTACT INFORMATION
asked the additional question of what region of In Ottawa:
the province they resided in. Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party. In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.92% joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
Find us online at:
(full methodology appears at the end of this www.mainstreetresearch.ca
report) twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
A MAJORITY OF ONTARIANS DISAPPROVE OF FORD

28 January 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – 51% of Ontarians have an unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 1127 Ontarians between January 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of error
of +/- 2.92% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“It is surprising to see Doug Ford’s favourability numbers being this low this early in his mandate,”
said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This is not good news for the Premier
and if these numbers keep trending downwards, Ford’s favourability will match that of Kathleen
Wynne’s at the end of her mandate.”

Ford’s net favourability rating stands at -21.5%, while opposition leader Andrea Horwath’s net rating
is -0.5%. Interim Liberal leader John Fraser has a net rating of -6.8%, while Green Party leader Mike
Schreiner’s net favourability rating is -3.8%.

“Andrea Horwath is doing the best among party leaders in terms of favourability, but our findings
show that Ontarians are not happy with their current options for Premier of Ontario,” continued Maggi.
“Horwath is the most popular provincial party leader right now, but more Ontarians disapprove of
her than those who have a positive opinion of her.”

The poll also asked Ontarians who they would vote for if an election were held today. Among decided
and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford have 41.4% (-0.8% from November), while the NDP led
by Andrea Horwath come in with 27% (-0.5%). The Liberals with John Fraser at the helm have 22.6%
(+1.3%), while Mike Schreiner and the Greens have 7% (+0.6%).

“The PCs are doing well and are substantially ahead of their rivals, but Ford’s poor favourability
ratings indicate a high amount of dissastifaction with the government,” concluded Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters party would you vote for?

11.2%

1.8%

6.3%
37.6%

All Voters
19.3%

Alland
Decided Voters
Leaning Voters
23.8%

2.2%
13.3%
7%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

2.8%

5.7% 38%
22.6% 41.4%

Decided All
and Voters
Leaning Voters

17%

27%
23.2%

Progressive Conservatives
Progressive NDP
Conservatives Liberals
NDP Greens
Liberals Another Party
Greens

Another Party Undecided
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)

33.8%
34.5%
Toronto

23.8%
7.2%
0.6%

46.4%
17.9%
GTA

24.9%
8.2%
2.6%

42.9%
33.0%
Eastern

18.1%
4.7%
1.4%

30.1%
South Central

38.1%
20.9%
9.0%
1.9%

52.4%
Southwestern

18.0%
19.7%
6.2%
3.6%

22.4%
40.0%
North

29.3%
5.3%
3.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of the following party leaders?
ord Andrea Horwath

17.2%
24.1%
29.5%
34.9%
2.3%

Doug Ford Andrea Horwath
5.5%

51%
aser Mike Schreiner 35.4%

Brian Pallister
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not sure
Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not su
14.5% 13%

21.6%
26%

16.8%
47.1% 47.8%
John Fraser 21.3% Mike Schreiner
6.4%
Brian Pallister

22.4%
17.1%

45.9%

Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not sure
Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not su

Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
37.6% 52.8% 22.9% 30.1% 41.2% 41.5% 38.1% 31.3% 42.3% 39.7% 24.9% 47.7% 19.8%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
23.8% 16.6% 30.7% 29.8% 23.3% 18.5% 23.1% 31.2% 15.8% 28.3% 34.1% 16.5% 31.3%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 19.3% 12.4% 26% 19.2% 18.3% 20.2% 19.5% 22% 21.5% 15.6% 17.1% 16% 21.8%
Greens led by Mike
6.3% 5.4% 7.2% 9.3% 5.4% 4.7% 5.5% 6.1% 7.7% 4.4% 8.4% 5.4% 5.1%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 2.5% 0.9% 1.3% 3.1% 1.8%
Undecided 11.2% 10.9% 11.5% 8.3% 9.9% 14.1% 13.1% 8.9% 10.2% 11.1% 14.2% 11.3% 20.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1127 669 458 183 269 362 313 199 301 141 153 204 129
Weighted Frequency 1127 554 573 317 284 309 217 262 310 151 101 235 69

(leaning and undecided voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
39.1% 54.6% 24% 32.2% 41.7% 43.1% 39.8% 32.5% 43.8% 40.4% 27.7% 49.2% 21.2%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
25.5% 18.3% 32.5% 31% 26.8% 19.9% 23.9% 33.3% 16.8% 31.2% 35.1% 16.8% 38.1%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 21.3% 14.3% 28% 20.3% 20.8% 21.7% 22.7% 22.9% 23.4% 17.1% 19.1% 18.4% 27.8%
Greens led by Mike
6.6% 5.6% 7.6% 9.3% 5.7% 4.7% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7% 4.4% 8.4% 5.9% 5.1%
Schreiner
Another Party 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 3.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 2.5% 1.3% 1.7% 3.5% 2.9%
Undecided 5.5% 4.9% 6.1% 4% 2.7% 9.3% 6% 3.7% 5.7% 5.5% 8% 6.3% 4.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1127 669 458 183 269 362 313 199 301 141 153 204 129
Weighted Frequency 1127 554 573 317 284 309 217 262 310 151 101 235 69

(decided and leaning voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
41.4% 57.6% 25.7% 33.5% 42.8% 47.4% 42.2% 33.8% 46.4% 42.9% 30.1% 52.4% 22.4%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
27% 19.3% 34.4% 32.3% 27.6% 21.9% 25.5% 34.5% 17.9% 33% 38.1% 18% 40%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 22.6% 15% 29.9% 21.1% 21.4% 24% 24.1% 23.8% 24.9% 18.1% 20.9% 19.7% 29.3%
Greens led by Mike
7% 5.8% 8.1% 9.7% 5.9% 5.2% 6.9% 7.2% 8.2% 4.7% 9% 6.2% 5.3%
Schreiner
Another Party 2.2% 2.4% 1.9% 3.3% 2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 2. 6% 1.4% 1.9% 3.6% 3%
Unweighted Frequency 1061 635 426 176 260 332 295 189 284 132 141 193 122
Weighted Frequency 1061 522 539 298 267 291 203 247 292 142 95 221 65
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable opinion 29.5% 42.3% 17.1% 27.8% 29.3% 33% 27.4% 25.8% 31.5% 31.6% 20.2% 36.7% 19.2%
Unfavourable
51% 40.2% 61.6% 51.1% 52.3% 49.1% 52.2% 54.5% 47.2% 51.4% 62.4% 43.4% 64.3%
opinion
Not familiar with
2.3% 2.6% 2% 2.3% 3.7% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 3.6% 2% 1.8% 2.1%
Doug Ford
Not sure 17.2% 14.9% 19.3% 18.9% 14.7% 16.8% 18.5% 17.5% 19.1% 13.5% 15.5% 18.1% 14.4%
Unweighted
1127 669 458 183 269 362 313 199 301 141 153 204 129
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 1127 554 573 317 284 309 217 262 310 151 101 235 69

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable opinion 34.9% 28.3% 41.4% 31.4% 33.8% 34.9% 41.7% 40% 31.4% 26.9% 51.5% 29.9% 43.4%
Unfavourable opinion 35.4% 45.7% 25.4% 37.4% 34.3% 39.3% 28.4% 30.1% 39.4% 38.4% 25.6% 41.3% 25.2%
Not familiar with
5.5% 5.9% 5.2% 6.2% 6.7% 4.1% 5.1% 3.7% 5.9% 9.7% 4.1% 5.1% 4.9%
Andrea Horwath
Not sure 24.1% 20.1% 28% 25.1% 25.2% 21.8% 24.8% 26.1% 23.6% 25% 18.7% 23.6% 26.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1127 669 458 183 269 362 313 199 301 141 153 204 129
Weighted Frequency 1127 554 573 317 284 309 217 262 310 151 101 235 69

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Fraser?
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable opinion 14.5% 12.9% 16% 16.2% 13.9% 14.9% 12.3% 20.5% 14.3% 12.4% 12.4% 9.9% 16.2%
Unfavourable opinion 21.3% 27.2% 15.6% 21.8% 22% 23% 17.3% 19.8% 20.4% 25.5% 18.6% 23.6% 17.9%
Not familiar with
17.1% 17.3% 16.9% 17% 18.6% 15.4% 17.7% 13.8% 17.2% 18.5% 22.6% 17.6% 16.3%
John Fraser
Not sure 47.1% 42.5% 51.5% 45% 45.6% 46.7% 52.7% 45.9% 48.1% 43.6% 46.5% 48.9% 49.7%
Unweighted
1127 669 458 183 269 362 313 199 301 141 153 204 129
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 1127 554 573 317 284 309 217 262 310 151 101 235 69

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Mike Schreiner?
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable opinion 13% 15.1% 10.9% 11.3% 15.8% 11.9% 13.2% 12.1% 14.2% 5.5% 18.1% 16.3% 7.7%
Unfavourable opinion 16.8% 23% 10.7% 14.2% 19% 17.5% 16.7% 14.3% 17% 24.8% 14% 14.3% 20.6%
Not familiar with Mike
22.4% 20.3% 24.5% 24.9% 22.1% 22% 19.8% 16.4% 23.3% 24% 31% 22.6% 24.9%
Schreiner
Not sure 47.8% 41.5% 53.9% 49.6% 43.1% 48.6% 50.2% 57.2% 45.5% 45.6% 37% 46.8% 46.8%
Unweighted Frequency 1127 669 458 183 269 362 313 199 301 141 153 204 129
Weighted Frequency 1127 554 573 317 284 309 217 262 310 151 101 235 69
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held Unfavourable Opinion
today, which party would you vote Not familiar with Doug Ford
for? Not Sure
(first four responses randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party of Do you have a favourable or
Ontario led by Doug Ford unfavourable opinion of Andrea
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led Horwath?
by Andrea Horwath Favourable Opinion
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Unfavourable Opinion
Fraser Not familiar with Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Not Sure
Schreiner
Another party Do you have a favourable or
Undecided unfavourable opinion of John Fraser?
Favourable Opinion
Which party are you leaning towards? Unfavourable Opinion
(only asked to respondents who Not familiar with John Fraser
said they were undecided in the Not Sure
previous question - first four responses
randomized) Do you have a favourable or
The Progressive Conservative Party of unfavourable opinion of Mike
Ontario led by Doug Ford Schreiner?
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led Favourable Opinion
by Andrea Horwath Unfavourable Opinion
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Not familiar with Mike Schreiner
Fraser Not Sure
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Schreiner What is your gender?
Another party Male
Undecided Female

We would now like to ask you your What is your age group?
opinions on the four leaders of the 18 to 34 years of age
provincial parties in the Ontario 35 to 49 years of age
legislature. 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
(order of the following four questions
randomized)
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
Favourable Opinion
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our breakouts.

Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville
Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau
Greater Toronto Area Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 15th to 17th,
2019 among a sample of 1127 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was
conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.The survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South Central
Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided
in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and
region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.92% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.79%, Females: +/- 4.58%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 7.24%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.98%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.15%, 65+ age group:
+/- 5.54%, Toronto: +/- 6.95%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 5.65%, South Central Ontario: +/- 7.92%,
Southwestern Ontario: +/- 6.86%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 8.25%, Northern Ontario: +/- 8.63%

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.