Michigan Statewide Survey Jan 2019

MICHIGAN STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY
WDIV/DETROIT NEWS
600 SAMPLE
JANUARY 27, 2019
Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 1

Glengariff Group, Inc.
January 2019
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page Topic
2 Methodology
3 Key Findings
12 Aggregate Survey Results
23 Cross-tabulation Report
METHODOLOGY
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of November 2020 likely general election voters. The 600
sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on January 24-26, 2019 and has a margin of error of +/-4.0 percent with a 95
percent level of confidence. 65.0 percent of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 35.0 percent of respondents were
contacted via cell phone telephone. This survey was commissioned by the Glengariff Group, Inc. as part of our public polling
program and provided to WDIV Local 4 and the Detroit News.

January 2019
KEY FINDINGS
Historic Motivation to Vote Continues Toward 2020 Election: Voter Motivation at Record 9.6
 The motivation to vote in the 2020 election among Michigan voters is at the highest levels ever measured by the Glengariff
Group. On a ten-point scale, Michigan voters say they are motivated to vote at 9.6 – higher than the 9.4 measured in late
October 2018.
 No demographic group tested comes in at a motivation to vote below a 9.3.
 The chart below compares motivation to vote by party affiliation.
Party Affiliation Oct 2016 Oct 2018 Jan 2019

Strongly Democratic 6.7 9.6 9.7
Lean Democratic 4.7 9.5 9.4
Independent 5.6 8.9 9.3
Lean Republican 6.2 9.2 9.5
Strong Republican 6.5 9.5 9.8
Sharp Drop in National Right Track
 Voters were asked if the nation was on the right track or the wrong track. Throughout 2018, Michigan voters were consistent
in their views. Today, 55.7 percent of Michigan now view the nation on the wrong track – a ten-point drop in the
percentage of Michigan voters who believe the nation is on the right track.
Survey Period Right Track Wrong Track

January 2018 33.0 percent 54.0 percent
September 2018 38.2 percent 48.2 percent
Early Oct 2018 36.5 percent 51.0 percent
Late Oct 2018 37.7 percent 51.0 percent
 86.1 percent of black voters believe the nation is on the wrong track.

January 2019
 54.0 percent of Independent voters believe the nation is on the wrong track. 27.1 percent of Leaning Republicans and 23.0
percent of Strong Republicans believe the nation is on the wrong track. (86 percent of Democratic voters believe the nation is
on the wrong track.)
Sharp Drop in Michigan Wrong Track: Michigan Voters Strongly Optimistic About the State
 Voters were asked if Michigan was on the right track or wrong track. 48.0 percent believe the state is on the right track. Only
29.3 percent believe the state is on the wrong track.
 For the first time in the past fifteen years, less than 30 percent of voters believe the state is on the wrong track.
Survey Period Right Track Wrong Track

Early Oct 2018 40.7 percent 45.0 percent
Late Oct 2018 40.3 percent 46.3 percent
 Democratic, Independent, and Leaning Republican voters strongly believe Michigan is on the right track. The only voters that
believe Michigan is on the wrong track are Strong Republican voters.
Party Affiliation Right Track Wrong Track

Strong Democratic 55.4 percent 26.9 percent
Lean Democratic 48.4 percent 28.1 percent
Independent 48.9 percent 27.0 percent
Lean Republican 55.7 percent 20.0 percent
Strong Republican 35.1 percent 39.2 percent
Michigan Voters Continue to Believe Detroit is on the Right Track
 By a margin of 44.7 percent-19.3 percent, Michigan voters believe Detroit is on the right track. These numbers are consistent
with September 2018 when voters believed Detroit was on the right track by a margin of 49.8 percent-20.1 percent.

January 2019
Governor Whitmer Enters Office With Low Negatives
 By a margin of 40.5 percent-19.7 percent, Michigan voters have a favorable impression of Governor Gretchen Whitmer. 32.2
percent of voters currently have no opinion of her. As the chart below indicates, Governor Whitmer has a strong favorable
impression among Democratic and Independent voters. Republican voters have a strong unfavorable impression of Governor
Whitmer.
Party ID Favorable Unfavorable

 Voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Gretchen Whitmer is doing as Governor. By a margin of 38.0
percent-13.0 percent, Michigan voters approve of the job she is doing as Governor. 49.0 percent of voters simply did not have
an opinion at this early point in her administration.
11.5 percent Strongly Approve

26.5 percent Somewhat Approve
6.8 percent Somewhat Disapprove
6.2 percent Strongly Disapprove
49.0 percent Don’t Know
Senator Peters Begins Re-election Campaign With Low Name Identification
 62.6 percent of Michigan voters recognize Senator Gary Peters. 35.7 percent of voters have never heard of him.
 19.8 percent have a favorable impression of Senator Peters while 12.3 percent have a negative impression of
Senator Peters.
 30.5 percent have heard of his name but have no impression of him.

January 2019
 Voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the job being done by Gary Peters as the US Senator for Michigan.
 30.5 percent of voters approve of his performance. (9.5 percent strongly approve while 21.0 percent somewhat
approve.)
 14.7 percent of voters disapprove of his performance. (9.0 percent strongly disapprove while 5.7 percent
somewhat disapprove.)
Nessel and Benson Begin with Low Name Identification and Low Negatives
 Voters were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Dana Nessel. Nessel has 45.3 percent overall name
identification breaking 12.8 percent favorable to 5.8 percent unfavorable. 26.7 percent of voters have heard of Dana Nessel
but have no opinion of her. 53.2 percent of voters have never heard of Dana Nessel.
 Voters were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Jocelyn Benson. Benson has 38.3 percent overall
name identification breaking 8.5 percent favorable to 4.5 percent unfavorable. 25.3 percent have hard of Jocelyn Benson but
have no opinion of her. 60.0 percent of voters have never heard of Jocelyn Benson.
Trump Numbers Unchanged During the Shutdown -- Numbers Consistent for Past Two Years
 By a margin of 37.5 percent-53.3 percent, Michigan voters have an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump. These number
remain largely unchanged from 2018.
Survey Period Favorable Unfavorable

Late October 2018 37.7 percent 56.5 percent
 White voters are split with 44.4 percent viewing him favorably compared to 46.0 percent viewing him unfavorably.
 Black voters view Trump unfavorably by a margin of 3.8 percent-88.6 percent.
January 2019
 Men have an unfavorable view 42.4 percent-47.6 percent. But women view him unfavorably 33.0 percent-58.7 percent.
 Voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the job being done by Donald Trump as President. President Trump’s
job approval remains unchanged in January 2019 as compared to 2018.
43.5 percent approve while 52.3 percent disapprove. 44.0 percent of Michigan voters strongly disapprove of President Trump
while only 27.0 percent strongly approve.
Survey Period Trump Approve Trump Disapprove Strong Disapproval of Trump

January 2018 39.5 percent 54.3 percent 47.3 percent
September 2018 44.3 percent 51.8 percent 44.2 percent
Early Oct 2018 43.6 percent 52.2 percent 44.2 percent
Late Oct 2018 44.0 percent 51.3 percent 45.0 percent
January 2019 43.5 percent 52.3 percent 44.0 percent
 Independent disapprove of the President’s performance by a margin of 43.1 percent-49.6 percent. 17.1 percent of Leaning
Republican voters disapprove of the President’s performance.
 White voters approve of President Trump’s performance by a margin of 51.4 percent-44.2 percent. Black voters sharply
disapprove of President Trump’s performance by a margin of 2.5 percent - 94.9 percent.
 Men narrowly approve of Trump’s performance 47.9 percent-46.9 percent. But women overwhelmingly disapprove 39.4
percent-57.4 percent.
President Trump Takes Overwhelming Blame for Shutdown By Nearly 2-1 Margin
 Michigan voters were asked who they blame most for the shutdown of the federal government:
45.2 percent blame President Trump

January 2019
26.0 percent blame Congressional Democrats
21.8 percent blame everyone equally
3.3 percent blame Congressional Republicans
 The chart below compares how voters view the shutdown based on party affiliation.
Party Affiliation President Congressional GOP Congressional Dems Equal Blame

Strong Democratic 81.7 percent 6.3 percent 1.7 percent
8.6 percent
Lean Democratic 78.1 percent 3.1 percent 4.7 percent
14.1 percent
Independent 43.1 percent 2.9 percent 20.4 percent
27.7 percent
Lean Republican 17.1 percent 1.4 percent 38.6 percent
37.1 percent
Strong Republican 3.4 percent 1.4 percent 62.8 percent
28.4 percent
 The chart below compares how people view the shutdown based on their primary source of news coverage:
Source of News Trump Congressional Dems

Local Television News 51.1 percent 23.9 percent
Fox News 12.4 percent 60.7 percent
CNN/MSNBC 78.8 percent 5.0 percent
Networks 50.9 percent 15.1 percent
Radio 30.0 percent 30.0 percent
Newspapers 53.2 percent 21.0 percent
Social Media 51.4 percent 17.6 percent
Michigan Voters Sharply Opposed to Funding of a Wall

January 2019
 Michigan voters were asked which of two positions on the government shutdown more closely reflects their position. By a 21-
point margin, a large majority of Michigan voters oppose spending $5.7 billion for a border wall.
58.0 percent We should re-open the government right now and not spend the $5.7 billion on a southern border wall.
36.7 percent We should approve the $5.7 billion the President has requested to build a wall on our southern border and re-
open the government.
 61.9 percent of women oppose funding for the wall.
 The chart below compares positions on the wall based on party affiliation. By a margin of 29.2 percent-62.0 percent,
Independent voters OPPOSE funding of the border wall.
Party Affiliation Fund the Wall Oppose the Wall

 The chart below compares positions on the border wall based on the primary source of news information:
Primary Source of News Fund the Wall Oppose the Wall

Local Television News 30.4 percent 60.9 percent
Fox News 78.7 percent 16.9 percent
CNN/MSNBC 8.7 percent 88.7 percent
Networks 24.5 percent 64.2 percent
Radio 46.7 percent 48.3 percent
Newspapers 30.6 percent 67.7 percent
Social Media 25.7 percent 68.9 percent

January 2019
 By a margin of 41.5 percent-43.6 percent, Michigan voters are narrowly split on a deal that would create a path to permanent
citizenship for Dreamers in exchange for $5.7 billion to build a wall on the nation’s southern border. 27.3 percent of voters
strongly oppose this deal.
 By a margin of 37.9 percent-44.5 percent, Independent voters oppose this deal.
Party Affiliation Support Deal Oppose Deal

Trump Begins Re-Election In Difficult Position: 53.4 percent Plan to Elect Someone New
 Voters were asked if they would vote to re-elect Donald Trump, or would they vote for someone else to be President. Donald
Trump begins his re-election campaign with only 30.6 percent of Michigan voters saying they would vote to Re-elect Donald
Trump. 53.4 percent of Michigan voters said they would vote for someone new to be President.
 23.3 percent of Michigan voters would DEFINITELY vote to Re-elect Donald Trump. 48.5 percent of Michigan voters
would DEFINITELY vote for someone new against Donald Trump.
23.3 percent Definitely Re-elect President Trump

7.3 percent Probably Re-election President Trump
4.7 percent Probably vote for Someone New
48.5 percent Definitely vote for Someone New
15.0 percent Depends who the Democratic Nominee is
 Among Independent voters that have a disproportional share of deciding Michigan winners, President Trump is faced with
unprecedented opposition. 24.1 percent of Independent voters would vote to re-elect President Trump. 54.8 percent of
Independent voters would vote to elect someone new.

January 2019
 16.1 percent of Independent voters would definitely vote to re-elect Trump while
45.3 percent of Independent voters would definitely vote for someone new.
 Men would elect someone new by a margin of 35.7 percent-48.0 percent. But by a better than 2-1 margin only 26.0 percent of
women would re-elect Trump while 58.0 percent would elect someone new.
Trump Loses All Four Hypothetical Matchups; Biden Leads by 13 percent/ Sanders by 10.8 percent
 Voters were presented with four hypothetical matchups between President Trump and likely Democratic candidates Joe Biden,
Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Trump loses all four matchups.
 Joe Biden leads 53.3 percent - 40.3 percent over Donald Trump, with only 5.3 percent of voters undecided.
o Biden takes 95.4 percent of Strong Democratic voters while Trump takes 92.6 percent of Strong Republican voters.
o Biden takes 89.1 percent of Leaning Dem voters while Trump takes 71.4 percent of Leaning GOP voters. Biden takes
18.2 percent of Leaning GOP voters with 11.4 percent undecided.
o Biden wins among Independent voters 55.5 percent-33.5 percent -- a 22-point lead with only 8.8 percent undecided.
o Biden wins men 49.0 percent-45.1 percent while he wins women 57.4 percent-35.9 percent.
 Kamala Harris leads 46.6 percent-42.4 percent over Donald Trump, with 9.7 percent of voters undecided.
o Harris takes 92.5 percent of Strong Democratic voters while Trump takes 93.9 percent of Strong GOP voters.
o Harris takes 81.3 percent of Leaning Dem voters while Trump takes 77.1 percent of Leaning GOP voters.
o Harris holds a narrow lead of 39.9 percent-36.4 percent among Independent voters, with 21.9 percent remaining
undecided.
o Trumps leads among men 47.9 percent-39.3 percent, while Harris leads among women 53.5 percent-37.2 percent.
 Bernie Sanders leads 52.0 percent-41.2 percent over Donald Trump, with only 5.5 percent of voters undecided.

January 2019
o Sanders takes 92.6 percent of Strong Democratic voters while Trump takes 93.3 percent of Strong GOP voters.
o Sanders takes 92.2 percent of Leaning Dem voters while Trump takes 78.6 percent of Leaning GOP voters. Sanders
takes 17.2 percent of Leaning GOP voters.
o Sanders wins among Independent voters 51.7 percent-32.8 percent - an 18.9-point lead, with only 8.8 percent
undecided.
o Trump leads among men 47.2 percent-44.2 percent while Sanders leads among women 58.9 percent-35.6 percent
 Elizabeth Warren leads 45.8 percent-42.5 percent over Donald Trump, with 10.3 percent of voters undecided
o Warren takes 91.5 percent of Strong Democratic voters while Trump takes 93.2 percent of Strong GOP voters.
o Warren takes 81.3 percent of Leaning Dem voters while Trump takes 78.5 percent of Leaning GOP voters.
o Warren holds a narrow lead of 39.4 percent-36.5 percent among Independent voters, with 20.4 percent remaining
undecided.
o Trump leads men 47.2 percent-40.7 percent, while Warren leads among women 50.6 percent-38.1 percent.
MICHIGAN STATEWIDE SURVEY

JANUARY 2019
Hello, my name is _________. I’m not selling anything. I’m doing a quick survey of voters attitudes in Michigan. It should take
approximately six minutes.
A. Are you registered to vote at the address I am calling?
1. Yes…..CONTINUE 100 percent (600)

2. No….TERMINATE
B. Next year in 2020, Michigan voters will go to the polls to vote in the Presidential election. Would you say are definitely going
to vote, probably going to vote, probably not going to vote, or definitely not going to vote?
1. Definitely going to vote….CONTINUE 86.3 percent (518)

2. Probably going to vote….CONTINUE 13.7 percent (82)

January 2019
3. Probably not going to vote….TERMINATE
4. Definitely not going to vote….TERMINATE
1. And could you tell me in what county you vote in?
1. UP/North 13.0 percent (78)

2. West 11.2 percent (67)
3. Southwest 8.3 percent (50)
4. Mid Michigan 8.7 percent (52)
5. East Central 7.7 percent (46)
6. Oakland 13.2 percent (79)
7. Macomb 8.5 percent (51)
8. Wayne 11.7 percent (70)
9. City of Detroit 6.7 percent (40)
10. Remainder of Detroit MSA 11.2 percent (67)
2. CODE:
1. Outstate 48.8 percent (293)

(UP/North, West, Southwest, Mid, East Central)
2. Metro Detroit 51.2 percent (307)
(Oakland, Macomb, Wayne, Detroit, Detroit MSA)
3. Generally speaking, do you think the nation is on the right track of would you say the nation is on the wrong track?
1. Right track 27.5 percent (165)

2. Wrong track 55.7 percent (334)
3. Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 16.8 percent (101)
4. And what about Michigan, do you think things in Michigan are on the right track or would you say they have gotten off on the
wrong track?

January 2019
1. Right Track 48.0 percent (288)
2. Wrong Track 29.3 percent (176)
5. And what about Detroit, do you think things in Detroit are on the right track or would you say they have gotten off on the
wrong track?
1. Right Track 44.7 percent (268)

2. Wrong Track 19.3 percent (116)
6. If the election for State House was held today, generally speaking would you say you would vote for the [ROTATE]
Democratic candidate or would you vote for the Republican candidate?
1. Democratic 40.3 percent (242)

2. Republican 37.7 percent (226)
3. Don’t Know/ Depends…DO NOT OFFER 20.3 percent (122)
4. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 1.7 percent (10)
I am going to read you the names of several people you might have heard of. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or
unfavorable impression of that person.
7. Donald Trump NAME ID: 99.0 percent
1. Heard, favorable 37.5 percent (225)

2. Heard, unfavorable 53.3 percent (320)
3. Heard, no opinion 8.2 percent (49)
4. Never heard of

January 2019
8. Gretchen Whitmer NAME ID: 92.3 percent

4. Never heard of 5.7 percent (34)
5. Don’t Know/ Refused….DO NOT OFFER 2.0 percent (12)
9. Dana Nessel NAME ID: 45.3 percent

10. Gary Peters NAME ID: 62.6 percent

11. Jocelyn Benson NAME ID: 38.3 percent

January 2019
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Donald Trump as President of the United States? ASK: WOULD
THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
1. Strongly approve 27.0 percent (162) APPROVE: 43.5 percent

2. Somewhat approve 16.5 percent (99)
3. Somewhat disapprove 8.3 percent (50)
4. Strongly disapprove 44.0 percent (264) DISAPPROVE: 52.3 percent
5. Neither/ Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 4.2 percent (25)
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Gretchen Whitmer as Governor of Michigan? ASK: WOULD

4. Strongly disapprove 6.2 percent (37) DISAPPROVE:13.0 percent
5. Neither/ Don’t’ Know/ Refused….DO NOT OFFER 49.0 percent (294)
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Gary Peters as the United States Senators for Michigan? ASK:
WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?

4. Strongly disapprove 9.0 percent (54) DISAPPROVE:14.7 percent
5. Neither/ Don’t Know/ Refused….DO NOT OFFER 54.8 percent (329)

January 2019
15. Will you vote to re-elect Donald Trump as President, or will you vote for someone else to be President? IF RE-
ELECT/SOMEONE ELSE, ASK: WILL YOU DEFINITELY VOTE TO RE-ELECT/ELECT SOMEONE NEW OR WILL
YOU PROBABLY VOTE TO RE-ELECT/ELECT SOMEONE NEW FOR PRESIDENT?
1. Definitely vote to re-elect 23.3 percent (140) RE-ELECT: 30.6 percent

2. Probably vote to re-elect 7.3 percent (44)
3. Depends/ Depends who Dem Nominee Is/DO NOT OFFER15.0 percent (90) DEPENDS: 15.0 percent
4. Probably vote to elect someone new 4.7 percent (28)
5. Definitely vote to election someone new 48.5 percent (291) NEW: 53.4 percent
16. Who do you believe is most to blame for the shutdown of the federal government? [ROTATE] President Trump,
Congressional Republicans, or Congressional Democrats?
1. President Trump 45.2 percent (271)

2. Congressional Republicans 3.3 percent (20)
3. Congressional Democrats 26.0 percent (156)
4. All of them equally…DO NOT OFFER 21.8 percent (131)
17. Which of the following positions on the federal government shutdown more closely reflects your position: [ROTATE 1 & 2]
1. We should approve the five point seven billion dollars the

President has requested to build a wall on our southern
border and re-open the government. 36.7 percent (220)
2. We should re-open the government right now and not spend

the five point seven billion dollars on a southern border wall.58.0 percent (348)

January 2019
18. Would you support or oppose a deal that would create a path to permanent citizenship for Dreamers – children that were
brought to this country by their parents but currently do not have citizenship -- while also spending $5.7 billion to build a wall
on our southern border? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT
SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
1. Strongly support 16.0 percent (96) SUPPORT: 41.5 percent

2. Somewhat support 26.5 percent (159)
3. Somewhat oppose 16.3 percent (98)
4. Strongly oppose 27.3 percent (164) OPPOSE: 43.6 percent
[ROTATE QUESTIONS 19-22]
19. Now I want you to think a moment about the President election. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE]
Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be
President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?
1. Trump 38.0 percent (228) TRUMP: 40.3 percent
2. Lean Trump 2.3 percent (14)

3. Biden 50.0 percent (300) BIDEN: 53.3 percent
4. Lean Biden 3.3 percent (20)
5. Don’t Know/ Depends…DO NOT OFFER 5.3 percent (32) DK: 5.3 percent
20. If the election for President were held today and ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Kamala Harris
was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? ? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO
YOU LEAN?

January 2019
3. Harris 43.3 percent (260) HARRIS: 46.6 percent
4. Lean Harris 3.3 percent (20)
21. If the election for President were held today and ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Bernie Sanders
was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU
LEAN?

3. Sanders 48.5 percent (291) SANDERS: 52.0 percent
4. Lean Sanders 3.5 percent (21)
22. If the election for President were held today and ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Elizabeth
Warren was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? ? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY
DO YOU LEAN?

3. Warren 42.5 percent (255) WARREN: 45.8 percent
4. Lean Warren 3.3 percent (20)

January 2019
Now just a couple of questions for statistical purposes.
23. Generally speaking, would you say you tend to vote mostly for Republican candidates, do you vote mostly for Democratic
candidates, or would you say that you vote equally for both Republican and Democratic candidates? IF VOTE EQUALLY
ASK: WOULD YOU SAY YOU LEAN MORE TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR MORE TO THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY, OR WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE AN INDEPENDENT VOTER?
1. Strong Democratic 29.2 percent (175) DEM: 39.9 percent

2. Lean Democratic 10.7 percent (64)
3. Independent 22.8 percent (137) IND: 22.8 percent
4. Lean Republican 11.7 percent (70)
5. Strong Republican 24.7 percent (148) GOP: 36.4 percent
6. Other/Refused/ Don’t Know…DO NOT OFFER 1.0 percent (6)
24. Do you or does any member of your family belong to a labor union or teachers association?
1. Yes 32.3 percent (194)

2. No 67.0 percent (402)

January 2019
25. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how motivated are you to vote in next
November’s Presidential election? You can name any number from one to ten.
SCORE: 9.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DK/Ref
0.5 percent 0.3 percent 0.3 percent 0.2 percent 1.3 percent 1.2 percent 2.5 percent 4.2 percent 4.0 percent
84.5 percent 1.0 percent
26. What would be the last year of schooling you completed?
1. High School Graduate or less 20.8 percent (125)

2. Vocational Training/ Some Community College/
Some College 29.3 percent (176)
3. College Graduate 48.7 percent (292)
4. Don’t Know/ Refused 1.2 percent (7)
27. Could you please tell me in what year you were born?
1. 18-29 (1990-2001) 15.8 percent (95)

2. 30-39 (1980-1989) 16.8 percent (101)
3. 40-49 (1970-1979) 17.7 percent (106)
4. 50-64 (1955-1969) 27.5 percent (165)
5. 65+ (1954 and before) 21.3 percent (128)

January 2019
28. And where would you say you primarily get your POLITICAL news?
1. Local television news 15.3 percent (92)

2. Fox News 14.8 percent (89)
3. CNN/MSNBC 13.3 percent (80)
4. Networks (ABC/CBS/NBC) 8.8 percent (53)
5. Radio 10.0 percent (60)
6. Newspapers and newspaper websites 10.3 percent (62)
7. Social media like Facebook and Twitter 12.3 percent (74)
8. Political websites like Breitbart, the Huffington Post
or the Drudge Report 8.3 percent (50)
9. Other__________________________________________ 3.0 percent (18)
29. And what is your race or ethnic background?
1. Caucasian 76.5 percent (459)

2. African American 13.2 percent (79)
3. Hispanic/Puerto Rican/ Mexican American 1.5 percent (9)
4. Asian 1.3 percent (8)
5. Mixed Race…DO NOT OFFER 1.7 percent (10)
6. Native American 0.7 percent (4)
7. Other/ Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 5.2 percent (31)
30. Gender: BY OBSERVATION
1. Male 48.0 percent (288)

2. Female 52.0 percent (312)
31. TELEPHONE

January 2019
1. Cell 35.0 percent (210)
2. Landline 65.0 percent (390)
32. This survey was commissioned by the news media. Occasionally, they choose to talk to several participants of the survey.
Can we release your name and telephone number to them if they want to talk to you? Or would you prefer that your opinions
remain confidential? IF YES, ASK:
AND CAN YOU CONFIRM YOUR NAME? _______________________________

WRITE IN TELEPHONE NUMBER ______________________________________
AND CAN WE RELEASE YOUR RESPONSES OR WOULD YOU PREFER THAT YOUR RESPONSES REMAIN
CONFIDENTIAL?
1. Yes, release responses.

2. No, responses remain confidential.
Thank you. That completes our survey.
3. Generally speaking, do you think the nation is on the right track of would you say the nation is on the wrong track?
Right Wrong
Strong Dem 5.7 percent 86.3 percent
Lean Dem 6.3 percent 84.4 percent
Lean GOP 50.0 percent 27.1 percent
Strong GOP 54.1 percent 23.0 percent
Male 35.4 percent 48.6 percent

Female 20.2 percent 62.2 percent
Out 31.4 percent 54.3 percent

Metro 23.8 percent 57.0 percent
18-29 26.3 percent 56.8 percent


January 2019
65+ 29.7 percent 53.9 percent
4. And what about Michigan, do you think things in Michigan are on the right track or would you say they have gotten off on the
wrong track?
Right Wrong



January 2019
5. And what about Detroit, do you think things in Detroit are on the right track or would you say they have gotten off on the
wrong track?
Right Wrong



January 2019
6. If the election for State House was held today, generally speaking would you say you would vote for the [ROTATE]
Democratic candidate or would you vote for the Republican candidate?
Dem GOP Depends

Strong Dem 94.3 percent 2.3 percent 3.4 percent
Lean Dem 65.6 percent 6.3 percent 26.6 percent
Lean GOP 1.4 percent 72.9 percent 24.3 percent
Strong GOP 1.4 percent 91.2 percent 6.8 percent
Male 36.1 percent 42.0 percent 20.5 percent

Female 44.2 percent 33.7 percent 20.2 percent
Out 34.1 percent 45.7 percent 18.4 percent

Metro 46.3 percent 30.0 percent 22.1 percent
18-29 45.3 percent 36.8 percent 16.8 percent


January 2019
65+ 36.7 percent 40.6 percent 21.1 percent
7. Donald Trump
Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Never Heard Of

Strong Dem 2.9 percent 94.3 percent 2.9 percent 0.0 percent
Lean Dem 1.6 percent 93.8 percent 4.7 percent 0.0 percent
Independent 30.7 percent 55.5 percent 12.4 percent 0.0 percent
Lean GOP 62.9 percent 17.1 percent 20.0 percent 0.0 percent
Strong GOP 88.5 percent 4.1 percent 6.8 percent 0.0 percent
Male 42.4 percent 47.6 percent 9.0 percent 0.0 percent

Female 33.0 percent 58.7 percent 7.4 percent 0.0 percent
Out 43.7 percent 48.5 percent 6.8 percent 0.0 percent

Metro 31.6 percent 58.0 percent 9.4 percent 0.0 percent
18-29 27.4 percent 60.0 percent 10.5 percent 0.0 percent


January 2019
65+ 43.8 percent 49.2 percent 5.5 percent 0.0 percent
8. Gretchen Whitmer





January 2019
9. Dana Nessel





January 2019
10. Gary Peters





January 2019
11. Jocelyn Benson





January 2019
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Donald Trump as President of the United States? ASK: WOULD
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly

Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove



January 2019
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Gretchen Whitmer as Governor of Michigan? ASK: WOULD





January 2019
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Gary Peters as the United States Senators for Michigan? ASK:
WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?





January 2019
15. Will you vote to re-elect Donald Trump as President, or will you vote for someone else to be President? IF RE-
ELECT/SOMEONE ELSE, ASK: WILL YOU DEFINITELY VOTE TO RE-ELECT/ELECT SOMEONE NEW OR WILL
YOU PROBABLY VOTE TO RE-ELECT/ELECT SOMEONE NEW FOR PRESIDENT?
Definitely Probably Depends Probably Definitely Don’t

Re-Elect Re-Elect New New Know
Strong Dem 2.3 percent 0.6 percent 1.7 percent 1.7 percent 93.7 percent 0.0
percent
Lean Dem 0.0 percent 0.0 percent 12.5 percent 9.4 percent 78.1 percent 0.0
percent
Independent 16.1 percent 8.0 percent 19.7 percent 9.5 percent 45.3 percent 1.5
percent
Lean GOP 27.1 percent 17.1 percent 38.6 percent 4.3 percent 11.4 percent 1.4
percent
Strong GOP 62.8 percent 13.5 percent 16.9 percent 2.0 percent 2.7 percent 2.0
percent
Male 27.4 percent 8.3 percent 15.6 percent 5.6 percent 42.4 percent 0.7
percent

January 2019
Female 19.6 percent 6.4 percent 14.4 percent 3.8 percent 54.2 percent 1.6
percent
Out 27.0 percent 8.5 percent 14.7 percent 4.1 percent 44.0 percent 1.7
percent
Metro 19.9 percent 6.2 percent 15.3 percent 5.2 percent 52.8 percent 0.7
percent
18-29 12.6 percent 7.4 percent 17.9 percent 10.5 percent 49.5 percent 2.1
percent
percent
percent
percent
65+ 30.5 percent 5.5 percent 10.9 percent 2.3 percent 49.2 percent 1.6
percent
16. Who do you believe is most to blame for the shutdown of the federal government? [ROTATE] President Trump,
Congressional Republicans, or Congressional Democrats?
President Cong GOP Cong Dems All of Them

January 2019



17. Which of the following positions on the federal government shutdown more closely reflects your position: [ROTATE 1 & 2]
Build the Wall Re-Open The Government Don’t Know

Strong Dem 3.4 percent 96.0 percent 0.6 percent

January 2019
Lean Dem 4.7 percent 90.6 percent 4.7 percent
Lean GOP 64.3 percent 28.6 percent 7.1 percent
Strong GOP 83.8 percent 10.8 percent 5.4 percent
Male 40.3 percent 53.8 percent 5.9 percent

Female 33.3 percent 61.9 percent 4.8 percent
Out 40.6 percent 53.6 percent 5.8 percent

Metro 32.9 percent 62.2 percent 4.9 percent

65+ 36.7 percent 54.7 percent 8.6 percent
18. Would you support or oppose a deal that would create a path to permanent citizenship for Dreamers – children that were
brought to this country by their parents but currently do not have citizenship -- while also spending $5.7 billion to build a wall
on our southern border? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT
SUPPORT/OPPOSE?

January 2019
Support Support Oppose Oppose



65+ 18.8 percent 18.8 percent 11.7 percent 29.7^
19. Now I want you to think a moment about the President election. If the election for President were held today and [ROTATE]
Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be
President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?

January 2019
Trump Lean Biden Lean Don’t Know
Strong Dem 1.7 percent 0.0 percent 93.1 percent 2.3 percent 2.9 percent
Lean Dem 6.3 percent 0.0 percent 82.8 percent 6.3 percent 4.7 percent
Independent 29.9 percent 3.6 percent 48.9 percent 6.6 percent 8.8 percent
Lean GOP 61.4 percent 10.0 percent 14.3 percent 2.9 percent 11.4 percent
Strong GOP 91.2 percent 1.4 percent 3.4 percent 0.7 percent 2.7 percent
Male 43.4 percent 1.7 percent 43.1 percent 5.9 percent 5.9 percent
Female 33.0 percent 2.9 percent 56.4 percent 1.0 percent 5.8 percent
Out 43.7 percent 2.7 percent 45.4 percent 2.4 percent 5.1 percent
Metro 32.6 percent 2.0 percent 54.4 percent 4.2 percent 5.5 percent
18-29 32.6 percent 3.2 percent 54.7 percent 4.2 percent 4.2 percent
65+ 39.8 percent 2.3 percent 48.4 percent 2.3 percent 4.7 percent
20. If the election for President were held today and ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Kamala Harris
was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? ? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO
YOU LEAN?
Trump Lean Harris Lean Don’t Know


January 2019
21. If the election for President were held today and ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Bernie Sanders
was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU
LEAN?
Trump Lean Sanders Lean Don’t Know


January 2019
22. If the election for President were held today and ROTATE] Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Elizabeth
Warren was the Democratic candidate, who would you vote for to be President? ? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY
DO YOU LEAN?
Trump Lean Warren Lean Don’t Know


January 2019
25. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how motivated are you to vote in next
November’s Presidental election? You can name any number from one to ten.
SCORE
Strong Dem 9.7
Lean Dem 9.4
Independent 9.3
Lean GOP 9.5
Strong GOP 9.8

January 2019
Male 9.5
Female 9.7
Out 9.5
Metro 9.6
18-29 9.4
30-39 9.5
40-49 9.7
50-64 9.7
65+ 9.5

January 2019

Michigan Statewide Survey Jan 2019

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Michigan Statewide Survey Jan 2019

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MICHIGAN STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY

JANUARY 27, 2019

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 1

12 Aggregate Survey Results

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 2

 No demographic group tested comes in at a motivation to vote below a 9.3.

 The chart below compares motivation to vote by party affiliation.

Party Affiliation Oct 2016 Oct 2018 Jan 2019

Sharp Drop in National Right Track

Survey Period Right Track Wrong Track

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 3

Survey Period Right Track Wrong Track

Party Affiliation Right Track Wrong Track

Michigan Voters Continue to Believe Detroit is on the Right Track

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 4

Party ID Favorable Unfavorable

11.5 percent Strongly Approve

Senator Peters Begins Re-election Campaign With Low Name Identification

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 5

Survey Period Favorable Unfavorable

Survey Period Trump Approve Trump Disapprove Strong Disapproval of Trump

45.2 percent blame President Trump

Party Affiliation President Congressional GOP Congressional Dems Equal Blame

Source of News Trump Congressional Dems

Michigan Voters Sharply Opposed to Funding of a Wall

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 8

 61.9 percent of women oppose funding for the wall.

Party Affiliation Fund the Wall Oppose the Wall

Primary Source of News Fund the Wall Oppose the Wall

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 9

 By a margin of 37.9 percent-44.5 percent, Independent voters oppose this deal.

Party Affiliation Support Deal Oppose Deal

23.3 percent Definitely Re-elect President Trump

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 10

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 11

MICHIGAN STATEWIDE SURVEY

A. Are you registered to vote at the address I am calling?

1. Yes…..CONTINUE 100 percent (600)

1. Definitely going to vote….CONTINUE 86.3 percent (518)

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 12

1. And could you tell me in what county you vote in?

1. UP/North 13.0 percent (78)

1. Outstate 48.8 percent (293)

1. Right track 27.5 percent (165)

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 13

1. Right Track 44.7 percent (268)

1. Democratic 40.3 percent (242)

7. Donald Trump NAME ID: 99.0 percent

1. Heard, favorable 37.5 percent (225)

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 14

8. Gretchen Whitmer NAME ID: 92.3 percent

1. Heard, favorable 40.5 percent (243)

9. Dana Nessel NAME ID: 45.3 percent

1. Heard, favorable 12.8 percent (77)

10. Gary Peters NAME ID: 62.6 percent

1. Heard, favorable 19.8 percent (119)

11. Jocelyn Benson NAME ID: 38.3 percent

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 15

1. Strongly approve 27.0 percent (162) APPROVE: 43.5 percent

1. Strongly approve 11.5 percent (69) APPROVE: 38.0 percent

1. Strongly approve 9.5 percent (57) APPROVE: 30.5 percent

Michigan Statewide Voter Survey 16

1. Definitely vote to re-elect 23.3 percent (140) RE-ELECT: 30.6 percent

1. President Trump 45.2 percent (271)