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NO. 1

Autumn 2017

The Journal of Energy and Development
volume 43, number 1, autumn 2017 (copyright 2018)

Hoang Anh Nguyen-Trinh and Yorgos Rizopoulos, “Market Conditions and Change for Low-
Carbon Electricity Transition in Vietnam,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 43,
number 1 (autumn 2017, copyright 2018), pp. 1–26.

This article develops a mesoeconomic evolutionary approach for a low-carbon electricity transition in
Vietnam, where the governing framework for the electricity sector may convert from primarily
government-driven to more stakeholder-driven efforts. We show that the structure of the electricity
market and the interests of key players may impede the take-off of renewable resources, despite the
settled objectives of policy makers. Low-carbon transition implies a fundamental transformation of the
stakeholders’ positions and relations. In particular, it necessitates a critical mass of initiating actors that
perceive the benefits of investing in renewables and have the economic and political leverage to redefine
the rules of the game, therefore modifying the institutional framework and enabling the creation of new
structural interdependencies inside the sector. During the current period, the conditions of the wholesale
electricity market appear as a determining factor in relation to the incentives and the pace of the low-
carbon transition. An analytical grid to identify the change path is proposed, where the trend in some
focal variables, such as feed-in tariff and subsidies to the single buyer, indicates the balance of power
between the key players and reflects the stages of the transition process.

Keywords: electricity market, low-carbon transition, renewable energies, stakeholders’ interactions,

institutional change, Vietnam

Hamadou Sanoussi and Subhes Bhattacharyya, “Comparing European CO2 Emission Trends
before and after the 2008 Economic Crisis: A Case Study of Four European Countries,” The
Journal of Energy and Development, volume 43, number 1 (autumn 2017, copyright 2018), pp. 24–

This paper investigates and compares the evolution of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in four major
economies of the European Union (Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Spain) between the period of
economic growth (2004 to 2008) and the period of economic crisis (2008 to 2012). Decomposing the
Kaya identity of five interrelated factors, namely, energy intensity, energy mix, carbon emission
coefficient, production, and population, this study shows that the CO2 emission levels decreased most
significantly between 2008 and 2012. The decline in energy intensity is the major source of CO2 emission
reductions in both periods, but energy intensity deteriorated in times of economic crisis. The population
effect, on the other hand, contributed to an increase in CO2 emissions.
We employ different scenarios to analyze the emissions reduction opportunities through successful
experiences from the selected countries, which show that the overall CO2 emission levels in the sample
could be reduced by 293 MtCO2 or 16 percent compared to their 2012 level through greater
improvements in the emission coefficient, energy mix, and energy intensity. Germany would reduce 20
percent of its CO2 emissions. Spain and United Kingdom would gain a CO2 emissions reduction of 19
percent and 15 percent, respectively. The saving would be less important in the case of France,
accounting for about 6 percent of their CO2 emissions compared to the 2012 value.
Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions, decomposition analysis, recession - economic growth, energy
efficiency, climate change, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Spain

David Roubaud and Muhammad Shahbaz, “Financial Development, Economic Growth, and
Electricity Demand: A Sector Analysis of an Emerging Economy,” The Journal of Energy and
Development, volume 43, number 1 (autumn 2017, copyright 2018), pp. 47–98.

We employ an augmented production function to examine the association between electricity
consumption and economic growth at the aggregate and sectoral levels for the period 1972-2014 for
Pakistan. We posit that financial development is an important driver of electricity consumption and
economic growth. The unit root test, combined cointegration framework, and vector error-correction
model (VECM) Granger causality approach are applied.
There is a long-term association between the variables at the aggregate and sectoral levels. Electricity
consumption and financial development stimulate economic growth. The causality analysis validates the
presence of the feedback effect between economic growth and electricity consumption. Bidirectional
causality exists between financial development and electricity consumption in the agriculture and services
sectors. Financial development drives electricity consumption in the industrial sector. Policies have to be
implemented to maintain sufficient electricity supply for economic growth. The financial sector should
incentivize investment in renewable energy to reduce Pakistan’s heavy reliance on oil imports.

Keywords: financial development, electricity consumption, economic growth, energy policy,

bidirectional causality, feedback effect, electricity demand–supply gap, non-renewable energy, carbon
emissions, Pakistan

Henri Atangana Ondoa, Dickson Thomas Ndamsa, and Achille Jean Baptiste Nsoe Nkouli, “Heavily
Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC), Economic Stability, and Economic Growth in Africa,”
The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 43, number 1 (Autumn 2018, copyright 2018), pp.

In this paper, we investigate the impact of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative on
economic growth and economic stability in Africa. We also assess the determinants of economic
performance using the World Bank data for the period 1990-2012. The results show that this initiative
causes economic growth and economic instability in Africa. Concerning the determinants of economic
performance, the study shows that economic instability is the consequence of political instability, external
debt, general government final consumption, gross primary school enrollment, and natural resources
rents. Our results also indicate that economic growth is sustained by education, infrastructures, natural
resources, urbanization, regulation, control of corruption, and political stability. From this perspective,
governments of African countries should promote competent governance, educate their populations, and
revise trade agreements to provide insurance for economic growth and economic stability.

Keywords: HIPC (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries) Initiative, Africa, economic stability, and economic
Majed S. Almozaini, “Oil Booms and Macroeconomic Activities in OPEC Countries: The Cases of
Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 43,
number 1 (autumn 2017, copyright 2018), pp. 125–142.

The discovery of a significant natural resource can have a positive or negative effect on a country’s
economy, particularly in the long run. The increase in oil prices, which is the primary source of income of
member nations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), will result in an
appreciation of the countries’ currencies. This change in the real exchange rate will, in turn, lead to
structural changes in the economy, including the effects on other sectors such as manufacturing and
agriculture. In this article, the focus is on the determination of the effects of increasing oil prices on the
real exchange rate. Upon an appreciation of the currency, the effects of the real exchange rate on the
manufactured exports were studied. In short, the effects of expanding oil revenues on the non-oil sectors
of some OPEC members (Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela) were assessed. The panel data sourced
from official sources such as the World Bank and OPEC for the period of 1980 to 2013 was utilized. This
work empirically investigates the presence of the Dutch disease in the largest producers in OPEC,
focusing on the long-term relationship between the crude oil price, real exchange rate, and manufacturing,
covering the period 1980–2013 by using the Johansen cointegration test and the vector error-correction

Keywords: Dutch disease, oil price, vector error correction model (VECM) analysis, cointegration, Saudi
Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela, real exchange rates

Rene Zamarripa, Belem Vasquez-Galan, and Olajide Oladipo, “Dynamic Modeling of Electricity
Consumption and Industrial Growth in Mexico,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume
43, number 1 (autumn 2017, copyright 2018), pp. 143–156.


Energy is an essential ingredient for economic production and, therefore, economic growth. However,
the mainstream theory of economic growth, except for resource economics models, pays little attention to
the role of energy. Using time-series data from 1993 to 2015, this paper analyses the relationship between
energy consumption and economic growth in Mexico. The paper employs Johansen cointegration
techniques, error-correction mechanisms, and Granger causality to uncover the relationships between total
and industrial output and energy consumption (measured by electricity) in Mexico. The results show that
there is a long-run relationship between industrial output and electricity consumption by industry. Also,
there is evidence that Granger causality only occurs from energy to output.

Keywords: energy, industry, electricity, consumption, prices, growth, GDP, Mexico, cointegration,
Granger causality