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Winter Weather

Decision Support Briefing #2 Current Hazards


As of: 6 AM Feb 11, 2019

What Has Changed?


Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued.

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Main Points

Hazard Impacts Location Timing


• Snow and Sleet 4 to 7 inches. Late Monday Night through
Heavy Reduced visibilities and Orange and Western Tuesday Afternoon. Precipitation
snow/ice covered roadways Passaic County will transition over to a wintry mix
Snow by late afternoon.
will create hazardous travel.
Late Monday Night through Tuesday
NYC, NE NJ, Lower afternoon. Precipitation will transition
• Snow and sleet of 2 to 4 over to rain at the coast by late
Snow inches.
Hudson Valley, Southern afternoon/early evening with gradual
CT, parts of Long Island transition through the night across the
interior.
• Ice accumulation of a tenth to
Interior NE NJ, the Lower
quarter inch inland with a few
Freezing hundredths elsewhere. Falling
Hudson Valley and interior Tuesday Afternoon through
Southern CT, Lighter Tuesday Evening.
Rain power lines and tree branches
amounts elsewhere.
possible.

1 to 1 ½ inches, locally 2 inches. Minor


Late Tuesday Afternoon
Heavy Rain Flooding of Urban Areas, Low-lying Entire Tri-State Region.
through Tuesday Night.
Roads, and Small Streams and Creeks.

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Summary of Greatest Impacts
Heavy Snow: Orange and Western Passaic County
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Snow: NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, Southern CT, parts of


Long Island
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Freezing Rain: Interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley


and interior Southern CT, Lighter amounts elsewhere
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Heavy Rain: Entire Tri-State Region


None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

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Snow and Ice
Hazards:
 1-4” Snowfall and Light Ice Accretion Coast
 Snowfall rates up to 1”/hr
 Visibility less than ½ mile at times

 4-7” Snowfall and Up to a Quarter Inch of Ice Inland


Official Expected Snowfall Forecast  Snowfall rates up to 1-2”/hr
 Visibility less than ½ mile at times

Impacts:
 Hazardous travel due to snow and ice covered
roadways and reduced visibility which will impact
the morning and evening commutes
 Falling power lines and tree branches possible due
to ice accretion

Timing:
 Heaviest snow Tuesday morning and early
afternoon with a transition to mixed precipitation
(ice/sleet)

Uncertainty:
 Timing of changeover to mixed precipitation and
rain. Small timing differences will have significant
impacts on snowfall and ice totals
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Moderate to Heavy Rain

Hazards:
 Rainfall of 1 to 1 ½ inches, locally 2 inches

Impacts:
 Minor Flooding of Urban Areas, Low-lying
Roads, and Small Streams and Creeks.
 Snow covered roadways and storm drains
may enhance street flooding
2 - Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Day 3
Timing:
 Heaviest rain late Tuesday Afternoon and
Evening

Uncertainty:
Timing of changeover of snow to rain will impact
the amount of runoff and extent of flooding

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Event Summary
 Snow begins toward daybreak Tuesday morning for the NYC metro,
and then works northeast across the remainder of the area
 Potential high impact for the morning commute

 Precipitation transitions to a wintry mix during the late morning and


afternoon hours from south to north. There is some uncertainty with
how quickly this transition occurs. Small timing differences will have
significant impacts on snowfall and ice totals.

 Snowfall totals of 1-4 inches along the coast and 4-7 inches inland are
forecast before changeover. Highest amounts in the watch area.

 A light ice accretion near the coast with a tenth to quarter inch well
inland

 Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1 ½ inches with locally 2 inches.

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Contact and Next Briefing Information

Next Briefing
When: Around 6 PM tonight
Method: Email

Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY

Web: Twitter:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/ http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY

YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
kNY

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is


time-sensitive, do not use after 6 PM tonight (02/11/19).

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