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0 views5 pagesFor doing this research, it is collected relevant data to estimate milk consumption in the United States. Our goal and objective were to prove whether there is a relationship between the amount of milk and cookies consumption in the USA. Analytical and empirical frameworks were outlined along with the datasets explained. As we analyzed and processed the data we were able to develop a hypothesis. In this hypothesis, we assumed milk and cookies were complementary goods. We used regression analysis in order to formulate a demand estimation equation for U.S. milk and cookie consumption. After analyzing and verifying the statistical significance of the data, the results show our hypothesis was correct. We further analyzed the data using the elasticity of demand in order to determine the degree more accurately to which our independent variables affected our dependent variable. Using the elasticity of demand, we were able to show the effects a change on one independent variable had on the dependent variable, demand for milk in the U.S. We then made recommendations in regard to the elasticity of demand is used; if the price of cookies goes up 10%, and then the demand for milk will decrease 2.8%. Lastly, in regard to income, since there is a negative coefficient of (-0.29), it means Milk is classified as an inferior good and therefore less will be purchased when income increases.

Feb 12, 2019

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For doing this research, it is collected relevant data to estimate milk consumption in the United States. Our goal and objective were to prove whether there is a relationship between the amount of milk and cookies consumption in the USA. Analytical and empirical frameworks were outlined along with the datasets explained. As we analyzed and processed the data we were able to develop a hypothesis. In this hypothesis, we assumed milk and cookies were complementary goods. We used regression analysis in order to formulate a demand estimation equation for U.S. milk and cookie consumption. After analyzing and verifying the statistical significance of the data, the results show our hypothesis was correct. We further analyzed the data using the elasticity of demand in order to determine the degree more accurately to which our independent variables affected our dependent variable. Using the elasticity of demand, we were able to show the effects a change on one independent variable had on the dependent variable, demand for milk in the U.S. We then made recommendations in regard to the elasticity of demand is used; if the price of cookies goes up 10%, and then the demand for milk will decrease 2.8%. Lastly, in regard to income, since there is a negative coefficient of (-0.29), it means Milk is classified as an inferior good and therefore less will be purchased when income increases.

© All Rights Reserved

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For doing this research, it is collected relevant data to estimate milk consumption in the United States. Our goal and objective were to prove whether there is a relationship between the amount of milk and cookies consumption in the USA. Analytical and empirical frameworks were outlined along with the datasets explained. As we analyzed and processed the data we were able to develop a hypothesis. In this hypothesis, we assumed milk and cookies were complementary goods. We used regression analysis in order to formulate a demand estimation equation for U.S. milk and cookie consumption. After analyzing and verifying the statistical significance of the data, the results show our hypothesis was correct. We further analyzed the data using the elasticity of demand in order to determine the degree more accurately to which our independent variables affected our dependent variable. Using the elasticity of demand, we were able to show the effects a change on one independent variable had on the dependent variable, demand for milk in the U.S. We then made recommendations in regard to the elasticity of demand is used; if the price of cookies goes up 10%, and then the demand for milk will decrease 2.8%. Lastly, in regard to income, since there is a negative coefficient of (-0.29), it means Milk is classified as an inferior good and therefore less will be purchased when income increases.

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consumption in the US

Md. Mominul Islam1, Sabrina Islam2

1Jagannath University, Dhaka-1203, Bangladesh

2Jagannath University, Dhaka-1203, Bangladesh

1. INTRODUCTION

ABSTRACT

In this study, we researched historical data regarding

For doing this research, it is collected relevant data

to estimate milk consumption in the United States. consumption of the primary good X (milk), pricing of

Our goal and objective were to prove whether there good X (Px), complementary good Y (cookies), pricing of

is a relationship between the amount of milk and a complementary good (Py), and average household

cookies consumption in the USA. Analytical and income (M). This was done in an attempt to derive a

empirical frameworks were outlined along with the demand equation sufficient to forecast the demand of

datasets explained. As we analyzed and processed

the primary good in the U.S. Our intention was to find

the data we were able to develop a hypothesis. In this

the data relevant to the demand for milk and derive a

hypothesis, we assumed milk and cookies were

complementary goods. We used regression analysis demand equation. It was crucial to find data that proved

in order to formulate a demand estimation equation to be statistically significant in influencing the demand

for U.S. milk and cookie consumption. After for the primary good. This, in turn, would allow us to

analyzing and verifying the statistical significance accurately forecast quantities demanded of milk. Some

of the data, the results show our hypothesis was of our other goals were the following:

correct. We further analyzed the data using the

elasticity of demand in order to determine the degree • Determine if good Y was a compliment or substitute

more accurately to which our independent variables for our primary good.

affected our dependent variable. Using the elasticity

• Study the price elasticity of demand, the income

of demand, we were able to show the effects a

elasticity of demand, and cross-price elasticity of

change on one independent variable had on the

dependent variable, demand for milk in the U.S. We demand. This was done in order to determine the

then made recommendations in regard to the effects of the price of primary good, income, and the

elasticity of demand is used; if the price of cookies price of complementary good had on quantities

goes up 10%, and then the demand for milk will demanded on our primary good.

decrease 2.8%. Lastly, in regard to income, since

there is a negative coefficient of (-0.29), it means

Milk is classified as an inferior good and therefore 2. RESEARCH DESIGN AND EMPIRICAL

less will be purchased when income increases. FRAMEWORKS

Keyword: Milk, Cookies, Regression analysis, USA. using a regression analysis model. It is the belief that this

model will successfully prove that the price of good X,

good Y, and household income have an effect on

demand for good X.

IJCIRAS1021 WWW.IJCIRAS.COM 16

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July 2018 | Vol. 1 Issue. 2

negative (inverse) coefficient.

will be a complementary good and therefore have a

higher value than the absolute value of 1.

that good X is a normal good which indicates the

coefficient of M should be positive.

account in order to determine the effect a change an

independent variable had on milk consumption in the

U.S. We were then able to demonstrate how this

elasticity could be applied in order to counteract a Table 1: Regression analysis

change in quantity demanded of milk resulting from a

change in one of the independent variables. [1] 4. RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS

For the purpose of this study, we only evaluated

demand function

the consumption of milk in the U.S, milk pricing, cookie

pricing, and average household income for the selected Qdx= 306.67-125Px-20Py-0.29M

time periods. We awarded that there were many other

factors that could have been considered, however, for To understand the data, it is needed to address the

the sake of simplicity. meaning behind the coefficients found while using the

regression analysis.

2.1. DEMAND FUNCTION

The coefficient of Px is -125 means that for every

The demand function: 10 unit increase in price, quantity demanded will go

Qd = a + b (Px) + c (Py) + d (M) down 1250 units. Law of demand holds.

In this case the values are as follows: The coefficient of Py is -20 means when there is

a 10 unit increase in price, quantity demanded will go

down 200 units. Law of demand holds.

a= intercept (in thousands) Qd= US per capita

consumption of milk and cookies With regard to income, there is a negative coefficient of

(-0.29) which means Milk can be classified as an inferior

b= Coefficient of Milk, Px= Average price of Milk good and less will be purchased when income increases.

c= Coefficient of Cookies, Py= Average price of Cookies milk price; Cookies price and income are 0.006017634,

d= Coefficient of household income, M= Average 0.000381715 and 0.461540088 respectively. So, in case

income (in thousands) of milk price and cookies price we can reject the null

hypothesis, because both values (P value of milk price=

3. REGRESSION MODEL

IJCIRAS1021 WWW.IJCIRAS.COM 17

© IJCIRAS | ISSN (O) - 2581-5334

July 2018 | Vol. 1 Issue. 2

Milk ($ per pound)

are less than the common level of alpha value =0.05. So,

we can say that there are significant relationship 0.50

between quantity demand and price of milk and cookies. 0.40

Price of Milk

y = -0.0028x + 0.8796

[2] 0.30 R² = 0.6813 Milk ($ per

pound)

In case of the coefficient of income we can’t reject the 0.20

null hypothesis, because P value of income is 0.10 Linear (Milk ($

per pound))

0.461540088 or 46% which is much higher than the 0.00

common level of alpha value of 5%. So, we can say that - 100.00 200.00 300.00

there is no significant relationship between quantity Quantity demand

demand and income. [3]

Figure 2: Relationship between quantity demand and

The value of R2 shows how closely data are fitted to the

price of milk per pound

regression result. If the value of R2 becomes zero percent

then it indicates that none of the variation of the 4.2 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QUANTITY DEMAND

response data around its mean value. And when the AND INCOME

value of r square become 1 or 100 percent then it

indicates the all the variability of the response data Income (thousands)

around its mean value. In our following regression

statistics, it has been shown that the value of R2 is $80.00

0.866906075. This is indicating that 86.67% of the $60.00 y = 0.0655x + 44.237 Income

variation of dependent variable (quantity demand) has R² = 0.0646

Income

(thousands)

been explained by the independent variables of milk $40.00

price, cookies and income and as the adjusted r square $20.00 Linear

is also less than the original r square value so it indicates (Income

a good model too. [4] $- (thousands))

- 100.00 200.00 300.00

4.1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QUANTITY DEMAND Quantity demand

AND PRICE OF MILK

Figure 3: Relationship between quantity demand and

In the below figure we found that the there are inverse Income of the people

relationship between price of milk and quantity demand.

That indicates that if the price of milk increase by $0.87 In the figure 2, it is found that there is an upward

then the quantity demand decrease by one unity. And trending linear relationship between quantity demand

the intercept term is 0.002 and coefficient is 0.87. The and income. As the regression coefficient is 44.23 so, it

value of R square is 0.68 indicates that 68% dependent indicates that the quantity demand is increased by one

variable is explained by independent variable. As it is unit by increasing $44 of the people. The value of r

above 50% so, we can say that the data has been fitted square is 0.064 indicates that the goodness of fit

goodly. [5] between income and quantity demand data is very

week. There is not any strong evidence here to prove

that there are close relationship between these two

variables. [6]

IJCIRAS1021 WWW.IJCIRAS.COM 18

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July 2018 | Vol. 1 Issue. 2

4.3 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QUANTITY DEMAND of milk. From these results we can see that law of

AND PRICE OF COOKIES demand holds and arc elasticity of price in good X is -

125. [8]

Cookies

We deduce the price elasticity formula to be

4.00

-125* .10+.25/219.67+200.92

Price of Cookies

3.00

y = -0.0262x + 7.7129

R² = 0.7718

Cookies The result for price elasticity is absolute value 1.78. Since

2.00

this is more than 1, we can assume the good to be price

1.00 Linear elastic as raising 10% price in Milk would result

(Cookies)

reduction of quantity demanded by 17%, greatly

0.00

- 100.00 200.00 300.00 outweighing the benefit of the price increase.

Quantity Demand

4.4.2 CROSS-PRICE ELASTICITY

Figure 4: Relationship between quantity demand and

From the main quantity demanded formula we were

Cookies

able to extrapolate necessary information to forecast a

In figure 3, we have shown the relationship between the couple of quantities demanded based on pricing

price and quantity demand of cookies. We have found fluctuations of Good Y (Cookies). [9]

the downward slopping liner line of cookies which

306.67-{125*(px))-(20*(py))-(0.29*(m)}

indicates that there is an inverse relationship between

the price and the quantity demand of cookies. The We chose $2 per pound of cookies for the first forecast

coefficient of determination is 7.7 indicates that if the and $3 per pound of cookies for the second one. Price

price of cookies decreases by 7.71 unit then the quantity of good X becomes constant at 25cents and income at

demand increase by one unit. As the value of r square is $50,000. The quantities demanded resulted in 220

0.77 or 77% indicates that the above model is goodly pounds of Milk per capita for $2 and 200 pounds of Milk

fitted. [7] per capita if price of cookies per pound was $3 cents per

pound of milk. From these results we can see that law of

4.4 ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

demand holds and arc elasticity of price in good Y is -

4.4.1 PRICE ELASTICITY 20. [10]

From the main quantity demand formula we were able We deduce the price elasticity formula to be

to extrapolate necessary information to forecast a

-20* 5/220.92+200.92

couple of quantities demanded based on pricing

fluctuations of Good X (Milk). The result for price elasticity is -0.28. Since this is a

negative number, we can assume the goods to be

306.67-(125*(px))-(20*(py))-(0.29*(m))

complements of each other as raising 10% price of

We chose 10 cents per pound of milk for the first Cookies per pound would result reduction of quantity

forecast and 25 cents per pound of milk for the second demanded of Milk by 2.8%. In other words, they are

one. Price of good Y held constant at $3 and income at considered to be complements because if prices of

$50,000. The quantities demanded resulted in 219 cookies are raised, customers will buy fewer cookies. In

pounds of Milk per capita for 10 cents and 200 pounds turn, they will buy less milk they usually used to

of Milk per capita if price of milk was 25 cents per pound consume along with said cookies. [11]

IJCIRAS1021 WWW.IJCIRAS.COM 19

© IJCIRAS | ISSN (O) - 2581-5334

July 2018 | Vol. 1 Issue. 2

Health. Vol: 61. Iss:8

It is observed that the coefficient of Px is -125 means

[5] O’Leary Fran (2017, Mar 27) U.S. butter consumption

that for every 10 unit increase in price, quantity

nears 50-year record high. (Online) Available:

demanded will go down 1250 units. Law of demand

http://www.wisconsinagriculturist.com/dairy/us-

holds. And the coefficient of Py is -20 means when there

butter-consumption-nears-50-year-record-high

is a 10 unit increase in price, quantity demanded will go

[6] Knut Dahl-Jørgensen, MD, Geir Joner, MD and

down 200 units. Law of demand holds. It is found in the

Kristian F Hanssen “Relationship Between Cows'

above discussion that the P value of milk price, Cookies

Milk Consumption and Incidence of IDDM in

price and income is 0.006017634, 0.000381715 and

Childhood” American Diabetes Association. 1991.

0.461540088 respectively. So, in case of milk price and

Vol: 14, Iss: 11. Pp- 1081-1083

cookies price we can reject the null hypothesis. We can

[7] Onathon L. Maguire, Gerald Lebovic, Sharmilaa

say that there are significant relationship between

Kandasamy, et. al “The Relationship Between Cow’s

quantity demand and price of milk and cookies. In case

Milk and Stores of Vitamin D and Iron in Early

of the coefficient of income we can’t reject the null

Childhood” American Academy of Pediatrics. Vol:

hypothesis, because P value of income is 0.461540088.

131 N: 1, pp-144-149. Dec 2012

It has been shown that the value of R2 is 0.866906075.

[8] Watson Elaine (2011, July 11), Average UK milk

This is indicating that 86.67% of the variation of

consumption slumps 8 percent in past decade.

dependent variable i.e. quantity demand has been

(Online), available: https://www.foodnavigator-

explained by the independent variables. The result for

usa.com/Article/2011/07/18/Average-US-milk-

price elasticity is absolute value 1.78. Since this is more

consumption-slumps-8-percent-in-past-decade

than 1, we can assume the good to be price elastic as

[9] Myweb. (2016, May 2). Demand and supply

raising 10% price in Milk would result reduction of

functions. (online), available:

quantity demanded by 17%, greatly outweighing the

http://myweb.lmu.edu/cbennett/Math111/demsup.

benefit of the price increase.

REFERENCES [10] Graham, R. J. (2017, June 3). THE ECONOMIC

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QUANTITY SUPPLIED

[1] J. Torres Susan. Diet. M Nutr. A Nowson Carly

AND PRICES. (online), available:

“Relationship between stress, eating behavior, and

https://www.dummies.com/education/economics/t

obesity” 2007. Journal of Nutrition. Vol: 23. Iss: 11-

he-economic-relationship-between-quantity-

12. Pp-887-894

supplied-and-prices/

[2] Rumsey, D. J. (2013, June 3). WHAT A P-VALUE TELLS

[11] Moffatt, M. (2017, March 12). Using Calculus To

YOU ABOUT STATISTICAL DATA. (online), available:

Calculate Price Elasticity of Demand. (online),

from

available: https://www.thoughtco.com/calculate-

http://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistic

price-elasticity-of-demand-1146247

s/what-a-p-value-tells-you-about-statistical-data/

[3] Statista (2016) “U.S. Milk Market - Statistics & Facts”

(online) Available:

https://www.statista.com/topics/1284/milk-market/

[4] Elwood C Peter, Pickering E Janet, Fehily Ann M”

Milk and dairy consumption, diabetes and the

metabolic syndrome: the Caerphilly prospective

IJCIRAS1021 WWW.IJCIRAS.COM 20

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