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Winter Weather

Decision Support Briefing #3 Current Hazards


As of: 6 PM Feb 11, 2019

What Has Changed?


Winter Weather Advisories have been
expanded to include all of Long Island.
Winter Storm Watches upgraded to
Warnings.
Gale Watches and Warning in effect for
Coastal Waters.
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Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
• Snow and Sleet 4 to 8 inches.
• Snowfall rates of 1-2” per hour • Snow and Sleet early Tuesday
Heavy morning into the mid afternoon morning through early Tuesday
Orange, Putnam and Western evening.
Snow and • Reduced visibilities and snow/ice
Passaic County • Precipitation will transition over
covered roadways will create
Sleet difficult travel for morning and to a wintry mix by Tue Eve and
evening commute. and continue Tue Night.

• Snow and sleet of 2 to 5 inches. • Snow and Sleet Tuesday


• Snowfall rates of up to 1” in the morning into Tuesday afternoon.
morning NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson
• Transition over to freezing rain in
Snow and • Reduced visibilities and snow/ice Valley, Southern CT, parts of
the late aft/early eve.
covered roadways will create Long Island
Sleet • Gradual transition to plain rain
difficult travel for morning and from south to north Tue eve into
evening commute. Tue Night.
• Ice accum of a tenth to quarter inch
inland. • Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
Freezing • Ice accum of a few hundredths to 1 Entire Area. Highest ice Night.
1/0 at coast. accum across Interior • Gradual transition to plain rain
Rain • Falling power lines and tree from south to north for city and
branches possible. coast Tue eve into Tue Night.

• Around ½ to 1 inch with locally HIghest rainfall amounts for


higher amounts. NYC/NJ metro and coast • Late Tue Aft/Tue Eve through
Heavy Rain • Minor Flooding of Urban Areas, where the transition will Tuesday Night.
Low-lying Roads, and Small occur sooner.
Streams and Creeks.

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Summary of Greatest Impacts
Heavy Snow and Sleet: Orange, Putnam and Western Passaic
County
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Snow and Sleet: NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, Southern CT,
parts of Long Island
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Entire Area. Highest ice accum across Interior

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Heavy Rain: Much of the region. Heaviest coast.

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

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Snow, Sleet and Ice
Hazards:
 Coast: Winter Weather Advisory in Effect
 2-5” Snow and Sleet, Up to 1/10th inch of ice
 Snowfall rates up to up to 1”/hr in the morning
 Visibility less than ½ mile at times
 Transition over to freezing rain in the late aft/early
eve.
 Gradual transition to plain rain from south to north
Tue eve into Tue Night.

 Inland: Winter Storm Warning in Effect


 4-8” Snow and Sleet, Up to ¼‘” of Ice
 Snowfall rates up to 1-2”/hr morning into mid
afternoon
 Visibility ¼-½ mile at times
 Precipitation will transition over to a wintry mix by Tue
Eve and and continue into Tue Night.

Impacts:
 Difficult travel due to snow and ice covered roadways and
reduced visibility which will impact the morning and evening
commutes
 Falling power lines and tree branches possible due to ice
accretion.

Uncertainty:
 Timing of changeover to mixed precipitation and rain. Small
timing differences will have significant impacts on snowfall
and ice totals.
 Note: See next two slide for potential worst case scenarios.
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Probabilistic Snow and Sleet Forecast

If precipitation quickly transitions from snow


to a wintry mix, these lesser snow and sleet
amounts would be realized.

If precipitation is slower to transition from


snow to sleet than forecast, these snow and
sleet amounts could be realized.

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Ice Forecast

Most Likely Ice Accumulation

Reasonable Worst Case Ice Accumulation

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Moderate to Heavy Rain
Hazards:
 Rainfall ½ to 1 inch with locally higher
amounts for NYC/NJ metro and coast,
after transition from snow and sleet.
 Lesser amounts across Interior

Impacts:
 Minor Flooding of Urban Areas, Low-
lying Roads, and Small Streams and
Creeks.
 Snow covered roadways and storm
drains may enhance street flooding

Timing:
 Heaviest rain late Tuesday afternoon
and evening

Uncertainty:
Timing of changeover of snow to rain will
impact the amount of runoff and extent of
flooding

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Event Summary
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in Effect!

 Potential high travel impact for both the morning and evening commutes

 Snow begins toward daybreak Tuesday morning for the NYC metro, and then works
northeast across the remainder of the area

 Precipitation transitions to a wintry mix during the late morning into afternoon hours from
south to north. There is some uncertainty with how quickly this transition occurs. Small
timing differences will have significant impacts on snowfall and ice totals.

 Snow and sleet totals of 2-5 inches along the coast and 4-8 inches inland, before
changeover.

 Ice Accumulations of up to ¼ inch across Interior and 1/10th inch along the coast.

 Rainfall amounts of ½ to 1 inch, mainly coast, including NYC/NJ metro

 Gale Warning in effect for ocean waters 6am Tuesday through 6pm Wednesday.
 Gale Watch for nearshore waters on Wednesday.

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Contact and Next Briefing Information

Next Briefing
When: Around 6 AM Tuesday
Method: Email

Web: Facebook:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/ http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY

Phone (public): Twitter:


631-924-0517 http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY

YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
kNY

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is


time-sensitive, do not use after 6 AM Tuesday (02/12/19).

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