GROWTH AND INVESTMENT PREDICTION

FOR THE YEAR 2017-2022

INTRODUCTION
Pakistan’s economy is increasing in the upcoming years as foreign investment is
entering along with the revival of closed industries. The growth rate will increase for
all sectors include manufacturing industry, agriculture & service sector etc.

AGRICULTURE
Agriculture sector got a good start in 2018 and will decrease till 2020 then it get
boost in the following years. It depends on Crops, livestock, forestry & fishing sector.

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Industry was totally damaging in the previous years although it is getting better in
coming years till 2021 and instability may effect during the change of government.
Manufacturing, Power sector & construction business will grow.

SERVICE SECTOR
Service sector will be growing with more rate and service business is having bright
future in Pakistan. Service sector in telecom and supply chain will more grow in the
upcoming years.

CONTRIBUTION TO REAL GDP GROWTH

In the next 5 years, GDP rate will increase comparing to the previous years and hit
the highest peak during 2020.

Graph shows the change in percentage of growth rate mentioned in the table
shown.
Growth Rate (%)

Sectors/sub sectors 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

A. Agricultural 6.0 7.0 4.7 4.7 7.7

1. Crops 11.2 1.0 2.4 2.8 2.9

Important Crops 3.0 4.7 -1.1 -0.2 3.3

Other Crops 2.2 -5.0 -0.5 6.0 -3.4

Cotton Ginning 6.0 1.3 4.0 -3.0 3.0

-Livestock -4.0 3.4 5.0 3.3 1.0

-Forestry 6.8 0.8 -0.6 -5.5 4.0

-Fishing -8.0 1.8 -2.1 4.1 -0.2

B. Industrial Sector 4.8 7.1 10.0 10.0 6.2

1. Mining & Quarrying 2.2 4.0 -2.0 -2.2 2.0

2. Manufacturing 4.6 -7.4 -2.0 8.5 18.2

- Large Scale 2.0 2.5 5.0 0.8 8.0

- Small Scale -9.0 -10.8 5.0 5.5 6.2

- Slaughtering 3.6 0.9 -12.0 2.2 4.0

3. Electricity Generation &
4.0 12.5 8.0 -1.8 -6.0
Distribution & distt.
4. Construction -6.0 -2.0 6.0 5.5 -8.0
Commodity Producing
5.4 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.0
Sector (A+B)
C. Service Sector 21.8 23.9 33.0 21.8 31.8

1. Whole Sale & Retail Trade 8.8 6.8 7.0 0.5 12.0
2. Transport, Storage and
-5.0 2.0 8.0 6.4 2.1
Communication
3. Finance and Insurance -2.5 -4.0 2.0 6.0 -0.2
4. Housing Services
4.0 4.0 5.0 -5.0 5.0
(Ownership of Dwelling)
5. General Government
10.0 8.5 4.0 7.2 8.9
Services
6. Other Private Services 6.5 6.6 7.0 6.7 4.0

GDP (fc) 13.6 15.5 20.2 14.6 19.4

SECTORAL SHARE IN GDP

Agriculture sector is growing in the

following years with peak coming
in 2021. According to
government’s support to the
sector, it will get boost and GDP
will be higher.

Industry sector is having difficulty

these days but when power sector
will be getting better & supply of
other utilities will support industry
and better by 2022.

Service industry is continuously

increasing in the upcoming year as
shown in the graph. Logistics
business is growing comparing to
the other sectors.

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

This increase in private investment is an indicator that investment climate is
improving in the country and private investors are showing confidence in
government policies. The global integration of economies has provided an
opportunity to developing countries to adopt liberalized policies to attract foreign
direct Investment (FDI).
Sectoral Share in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Sectors/sub sectors 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

A. Agricultural 19.7 20 20 20.2 19.9

1. Crops 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.6

Important Crops 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8

Other Crops 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3

Cotton Ginning 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5

-Livestock 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.4

-Forestry 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

-Fishing 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4

B. Industrial Sector 21.1 21 21 20.9 21.2

1. Mining & Quarrying 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9

2. Manufacturing 13.4 13.3 13.5 13.4 13.4

- Large Scale 10.6 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.6

- Small Scale 1.9 1.9 1.8 2 1.9

- Slaughtering 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9

3. Electricity Generation &
2 2.1 2 1.9 2.1
Distribution & distt.
4. Construction 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8
Commodity Producing
40.8 41 41 41.1 41.1
Sector (A+B)
C. Service Sector 59.2 59 59 58.9 58.9
1. Whole Sale & Retail
18.3 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.3
Trade
2. Transport, Storage and
13.2 13.2 13.1 13 13.2
Communication
3. Finance and Insurance 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4
4. Housing Services
6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7
(Ownership of Dwelling)
5. General Government
7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6
Services
6. Other Private Services 10 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7

GDP (fc) 100 100 100 100 100

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
The global dynamics in political economy remained significant and their impact is
realized on the global economic activities and trade performance.

Comparative Real GDP Growth Rates among other South Asian Countries (%)

Country 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

India 8.7 9.9 10.8 10.0 6.0

Bangladesh 7.0 7.8 5.4 7.1 5.0

Sri Lanka 5.0 4.6 6.0 8.5 5.6

Pakistan* 13.6 15.5 20.2 14.6 19.4

CONCLUSION
The present government after coming into power initiated a number of major steps for removal of
bottlenecks like energy shortage, restructuring of PSEs, creating conducive investment climate,
bridging fiscal & current account deficits. The government in process to be successful in achieving
macroeconomic stability and is now focused on attaining highest sustainable and inclusive economic
growth.