WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COLLGE POLLING INSTITUTE October 16-21, 2010

METHODOLOGY The Western New England College Polling Institute conducted telephone interviews with 525 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digitdialing October 16-21, 2010. The sample yielded 469 adults who said they were registered to vote in Massachusetts, and 400 voters who were deemed likely to vote in the Nov. 2 election for governor. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based on the statewide samples of registered and likely voters. The Polling Institute dialed household telephone numbers, known as “landline numbers,” and cell phone numbers for the survey. In order to draw a representative sample from the landline numbers, interviewers first asked for the youngest male age 18 or older who was home at the time of the call, and if no adult male was present, the youngest female age 18 or older who was at home at the time of the call. Interviewers dialing cell phone numbers interviewed the respondent who answered the cell phone after confirming three things: (1) that the respondent was in a safe setting to complete the survey; (2) that the respondent was an adult age 18 or older; and (3) that the respondent was a resident of Massachusetts. The landline and cell phone data were combined and weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, and age using population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2006-2008 American Community Survey for Massachusetts. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for a sample of 469 registered voters is +/- 4.5 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 50 percent of registered voters said the state is headed in the right direction, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 45.5 percent and 54.5 percent (50 percent +/- 4.5 percent) had all Massachusetts voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. The margin of error for the sample of likely voters is +/- 5 percent. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.

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TABLES Do you feel things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

Right Direction / Wrong Track – Registered Voters Right Direction 38% 58% 11% 25% 35% 30% 39% Wrong Track 52% 32% 82% 56% 51% 60% 50% Don’t know/ Refused 10% 9% 7% 19% 14% 10% 11% N* 469 234 155 79 473 481 548

Oct. 2010 Party identification (including leaners) Sept. 2010 April 2010 Nov. 2008

Registered voters Democrat Republican Independent Registered voters Registered voters Registered voters

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

As you may know, there will be an election for governor of Massachusetts in November. How much INTEREST do you have in this election - a lot, some, a little, or none at all?

Interest in the Election for Governor – Registered Voters A lot Oct. 2010 Party identification (including leaners) Sept. 2010 Registered voters Democrat Republican Independent Registered voters 62% 57% 69% 62% 53% Some 27% 34% 19% 21% 29% A Little 8% 5% 11% 15% 13% None at All 3% 3% 1% 3% 4% Don’t know/ Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N* 469 234 155 79 473

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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Do you think you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably NOT vote, or definitely NOT vote in the election for governor?

Probability of Voting in Election for Governor – Registered Voters Definitely vote Oct. 2010 Party identification (including leaners) Sept. 2010 Registered voters Democrat Republican Independent Registered voters 84% 82% 88% 79% 77% Probably vote 11% 13% 9% 10% 16% Probably not vote 4% 3% 1% 10% 6% Definitely not vote 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% Don’t know/ Refused 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% N* 469 234 155 79 473

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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If the election for governor were held today, and the candidates were Deval Patrick, the Democrat, Charles Baker, the Republican, Tim Cahill, the Independent, and Jill Stein, the Green / Rainbow Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more towards Deval Patrick, the Democrat, Charles Baker, the Republican, Tim Cahill, the Independent, or Jill Stein, the Green / Rainbow Party Candidate?

Voter Preferences for Governor (Including Leaners) – Likely Voters Patrick Oct. 2010 Party identification (including leaners) State direction Gender Age Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Right direction Wrong track Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 and older High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters 44% 76% 5% 26% 75% 19% 46% 42% ** 36% 42% 49% 36% 34% 49% 44% 31% 39% 49% 45% 39% 38% Baker 36% 5% 81% 32% 7% 59% 40% 32% ** 39% 36% 36% 43% 39% 33% 24% 41% 40% 36% 32% 33% 30% Cahill 8% 5% 6% 22% 5% 11% 8% 8% ** 9% 8% 9% 7% 12% 7% 12% 8% 12% 4% 11% 16% 17% Stein 5% 8% 0% 6% 6% 3% 3% 6% ** 6% 4% 1% 3% 6% 4% 10% 8% 6% 1% 4% 3% 4% Don’t know / Undecided 5% 2% 6% 11% 3% 6% 1% 9% ** 6% 6% 4% 5% 6% 4% 8% 4% 2% 6% 6% 7% 10% Refused 3% 4% 2% 4% 5% 2% 2% 3% ** 4% 4% 0% 7% 2% 2% 2% 8% 0% 4% 2% 2% 2% N* 400 192 143 65 159 212 193 207 ** 119 152 106 65 96 236 71 51 114 164 469 402 473

Education

Region

Oct. 2010 Sept. 2010 Sept. 2010

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. ** Subgroup contains fewer than 50 respondents.

Voter Preferences for Governor (Without Leaners) – Likely Voters Patrick Oct. 2010 Party identification (including leaners) State direction Gender Age Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Right direction Wrong track Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 and older Education High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Registered voters 40% 72% 5% 18% 71% 16% 43% 38% ** 34% 39% 47% 34% 30% 46% 41% 29% 35% 47% 42% 36% Baker 34% 4% 78% 30% 7% 56% 39% 29% ** 35% 35% 34% 41% 37% 31% 24% 40% 37% 34% 30% 27% Cahill 7% 4% 6% 20% 5% 10% 8% 6% ** 8% 7% 9% 7% 11% 6% 12% 8% 11% 2% 9% 15% Stein 4% 7% 0% 6% 6% 3% 3% 5% ** 6% 4% 1% 3% 4% 5% 10% 8% 4% 1% 3% 3% Some other candidate 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% ** 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% Don’t know / Undecided 11% 8% 9% 22% 7% 12% 4% 17% ** 12% 11% 6% 8% 14% 10% 12% 6% 11% 11% 11% 15% Refused 3% 4% 2% 4% 5% 2% 2% 4% ** 4% 4% 1% 7% 2% 2% 2% 8% 0% 4% 3% 2% N* 400 192 143 65 159 212 193 207 ** 119 152 106 65 96 236 71 51 114 164 469 473

Region

Oct. 2010 Sept. 2010

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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Are you very sure about your choice for governor, or might you change your mind before Election Day? Asked of those who expressed a preference in response to the initial gubernatorial match-up question or the follow-up measure of preferences among leaning voters.

Very Sure About Choice or Might Change Mind – Likely Voters Very Sure Oct. 2010 Likely voters Patrick supporters Baker supporters Cahill supporters Likely voters 71% 74% 81% 31% 56% Might Change Mind 28% 26% 18% 69% 42% Don’t know/ Refused 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% N* 369 171 145 37 364

Sept. 2010

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding.

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